Playbook PM: Why NYC’s ‘instant runoff’ could take weeks to decide

Jun 22, 2021

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AOC'S RANKED CHOICES — Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.), who's backing MAYA WILEY in the New York City mayoral primary today, said this morning on HOT 97 that she ranked SCOTT STRINGER No. 2. The clip

As New Yorkers head to the polls today, POLITICO's senior campaigns and elections editor Steve Shepard writes in:

WHY IT COULD TAKE WEEKS — OR LONGER — TO KNOW WHO WON: In the moments after polls close at 9 p.m., it might feel like a regular election. You'll see the votes begin to be tallied — bookmark POLITICO's results page now — but the ranked-choice format of the election means we probably won't have a clear winner tonight.

There are 13 candidates on the ballot, and polls show no one coming remotely close to a majority. That means it's virtually certain that we won't have an outright winner tonight, and it will be necessary to move to the ranked-choice, "instant runoff" tabulation to determine the Democratic nominee.

But "instant" it is not — far from it. The problem is you need to know which candidates finished the race in which places before their supporters can be reallocated in the correct order. And that's only possible after all the votes are tabulated.

The city board of elections is reportedly not going to run those calculations for the first time until next Tuesday. And that will only include votes cast in person — whether today or during the early-voting period, which ended Sunday.

Then there are absentee ballots, which won't start to be added to the tallies until after the Fourth of July. That means it could be until the middle of next month before a winner can be identified. That's especially true if the race is close.

Good Tuesday afternoon.

FOR YOUR AWARENESS — CNN's Manu Raju (@mkraju): "White House officials and bipartisan group of senators are now meeting in [Sen. KYRSTEN] SINEMA'S office about infrastructure. Sinema declined to comment on anything on her way into the meeting."

AS S. 1 GOES DOWN … "Democratic Group Will Pour $20 Million Into Voting Rights Efforts," by NYT's Nick Corasaniti: "The digital effort will include a series of extensive voter information campaigns, going beyond a more traditional approach that would consist solely of persuasion ads. [Priorities USA's] overall goal is to help people navigate a new balloting landscape created by the many new restrictions passed by Republicans in at least 16 states. The campaigns will also provide voting tools like text message reminders to register to vote or request an absentee ballot. …

"The other significant investment will be on the legal front … Though Priorities has not sued any state this year in response to new voting restrictions, group officials said that more legal efforts would be coming soon."

— More from Marianne LeVine on this afternoon's main event: "Senate prepares for showdown over Democrats' elections bill": "During his opening remarks Tuesday, [Majority Leader CHUCK] SCHUMER acknowledged the likely outcome of the vote but framed the issue as an existential fight for democracy. He accused Republicans of suppressing the vote in the aftermath of the 2020 election. 'There is a rot at the center of the modern Republican [P]arty,' Schumer said. … Republicans, however, are vehemently opposed."

— Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) said this morning he's still undecided on today's procedural vote.

A message from the American Investment Council:

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2022 WATCH — "How Democrats can defy history in 2022," by Ronald Brownstein in a CNN analysis: "The huge voter turnout over the past three elections could scramble the usual dynamics of midterm voting -- potentially providing Democrats their best chance to avoid losses next year that could cost them control of the House, the Senate or both. … [T]here are nearly 91 million individual Americans who have voted Democratic in at least one of [the last] three elections … [T]hat's significantly more than the slightly more than 82 million voters who backed Republicans …

"This disparity helps explain the torrent of new laws that red state Republicans are passing, on an almost entirely party-line basis, making it more difficult to vote. … Key to realizing that potential advantage, Democrats agree, is motivating the new voters who surged to the polls in 2018 and 2020."

— "Conservative PAC that supports female candidates makes initial 2022 endorsements," by Fox News' Paul Steinhauser: "The endorsements by Maggie's List … include 18 House Republican incumbents, five candidates running in the 2022 midterms, two running in special elections this year, a Senate candidate and the rare endorsement of a candidate running for lieutenant governor. But the list does not include two very high-profile Republican congresswomen: LIZ CHENEY of Wyoming and CATHY MCMORRIS RODGERS of Washington state."

WHAT REPUBLICANS ARE READING — "Iowa Poll: Majority of Iowans disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president," by the Des Moines Register's Stephen Gruber-Miller: "President JOE BIDEN'S approval rating among Iowans is underwater six months into his term in office, with 43% approving of the job he is doing and 52% disapproving … That's a reversal from the last time the question was asked. In March, by a narrow margin, more Iowans approved of the job Biden, a Democrat, was doing as president (47%) than disapproved (44%). … Biden's favorability numbers have also flipped from the March poll and are now underwater." The poll

UP NEXT — NBC has a good rundown of a few key events to watch on the political scene over the next month: "Thursday, June 24: NIKKI HALEY headlines an Iowa GOP dinner in Des Moines. Saturday, June 26: DONALD TRUMP holds a rally in Wellington, Ohio. Wednesday, June 30: Trump travels to the Texas border with Gov. GREG ABBOTT. Friday, July 9: The American Conservative Union's Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) begins in Dallas. Friday, July 16: MIKE POMPEO returns to Iowa for a Family Leader event, with MIKE PENCE and South Dakota Gov. KRISTI NOEM attending, too."

HOW THE LEFT HAS CHANGED THE DIALOGUE — "Progressives count their foreign policy wins with Omar flap in rear view," by Andrew Desiderio: "ILHAN OMAR started out in Congress as a somewhat lonely critic of decades of U.S. policy in the Middle East. Now, six months into her second term, the Minnesota Democrat has new and diverse allies. … Democrats are showing they're increasingly comfortable backing her up, particularly as she hammers the Israeli government in ways that buck long-held bipartisan traditions in Washington.

"That friendlier posture toward Omar indicates that her party's shift on America's role in the Middle East was more than just a short-term fixture of the recent 11-day conflict between Israel and Palestinian militants in Gaza. … [A] generational divide within the Democratic Party has elevated younger lawmakers' calls for a recalibration in U.S. policy toward Israel. Democrats should consider a foreign-policy doctrine that takes into account the alleged human-rights abuses by U.S. allies, these younger members say."

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OVER-PROMISE/UNDER-DELIVER — JEFF ZIENTS announced at today's Covid-19 briefing that 70% of Americans ages 30 and up have now been at least partially vaccinated, and the country is poised to hit that threshold for those 27 and up by the Fourth of July. That's great news, but it also falls short of the White House's original holiday weekend target, which was to reach 70% for all adults.

Reaching 18- to 26-year-olds has been tougher, and getting there will take "a few extra weeks," Zients said. "The reality is, many younger Americans have felt like Covid-19 is not something that impacts them and they've been less eager to get the shot." Still, Zients was upbeat about the country's overall progress. More from NBC's Mike Memoli

ANTITRUST THE PROCESS — "Amazon's Planned Purchase of MGM to Be Reviewed by FTC," by WSJ's Brent Kendall: "The Federal Trade Commission will be the agency to review Amazon.com Inc.'s proposed acquisition of Hollywood studio MGM, according to people familiar with the matter, just as the commission gets a new chairwoman who has been critical of the online giant's expansion."

THE DOJ DRAMA — "Trump's GOP friends and foes unite — to shrug at Dem fury over secret subpoenas," by Olivia Beavers: "'It's really important for the Department of Justice to ensure that we aren't seeing leaks of classified information,' [Cheney] said … [T]he unruffled reaction from one of Trump's fiercest GOP foes underscores the collective shrug among Republicans.

"While Democrats vow to investigate the subpoenas, the GOP is almost unified in its response: The government should investigate leaks of classified information, even if that sweeps up members of the opposite political party — as long as it is within the confines of the law. And they say that applies to Democratic presidents, too. … Republicans want to let the Justice Department's internal watchdog finish its work."

REMEMBER WHEN ALL THE NEWS WAS LIKE THIS? — "Trump Wanted His Justice Department to Stop 'SNL' From Teasing Him," by The Daily Beast's Asawin Suebsaeng and Adam Rawnsley: "According to two people familiar with the matter, Trump had asked advisers and lawyers in early 2019 about what the Federal Communications Commission, the courts systems, and—most confusingly to some Trump lieutenants—the Department of Justice could do to probe or mitigate SNL, JIMMY KIMMEL, and other late-night comedy mischief-makers.

"To those who heard it, Trump's inquiries into what federal regulations could be used to bust the likes of Kimmel and SNL was more of a nuisance than a constitutional crisis. … However, the conversations further showed, in the pettiest of ways, how the 45th U.S. president was keen on turning the country's top law enforcers into something more akin to his own personally retained law firm."

INFLATION REALITY CHECK — "Rising Inflation Looks Less Severe Using Pre-Pandemic Comparisons," by WSJ's Kara Dapena and Peter Santilli

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THOSE WE'RE LEAVING BEHIND — "Afghans Who Spied for CIA Have a Problem: No Paperwork to Get U.S. Visas," by WSJ's Jessica Donati, Ehsanullah Amiri and Michelle Hackman with a Kabul dateline: "RAHMAT says he carried out secret missions spying on the Taliban for the Central Intelligence Agency in remote border areas of Afghanistan for almost a decade. He has no contract to prove it, and his CIA supervisors never shared their real names. Now, as the U.S. prepares to withdraw all U.S. forces from Afghanistan by Sept. 11, thousands of Afghans who worked for the U.S. are at risk of Taliban retaliation. …

"Rahmat's story is emblematic of the hurdles that Afghans, particularly those in intelligence, face in joining a visa program aimed at relocating people who worked for the U.S. government to the U.S. Applications for the Special Immigrant Visa typically require details such as contract numbers, certificates and supervisors' names and addresses. Rahmat said all he has to prove his identity and work history are yellowed photographs, a letter from a trucking company that served as his cover, and an old badge."

IN MEMORIAM — "Richard D. Simmons, former Washington Post Co. president, dies at 86," by WaPo's Matt Schudel

MEDIAWATCH — "The Hill ramps up sale talks," by Axios' Sara Fischer: "It's held recent talks with broadcasting giant Nexstar Media Group … [JIMMY] FINKELSTEIN has held talks for years about offloading the publication, but sources who have been recently pitched on the sale say those talks have gotten more serious amid a ripe deals market and as Finkelstein looks to capitalize on the outlet's success during the Trump-era boom."

MEDIA MOVES — "Longtime C-SPAN political editor Steve Scully leaving network," by Axios' Sara Fischer: "He will join the Bipartisan Policy Center as SVP of communications. … Scully has been with C-SPAN for over three decades. He has covered eight presidential elections for the network."

— "Rich Lowry stepping down as editor of National Review's print magazine," by Axios' Sara Fischer: "Lowry, the longtime editor of the conservative opinion magazine National Review, is stepping down from his role overseeing the print publication to focus on more strategic long-term initiatives as the company's editor-in-chief … Ramesh Ponnuru, a longtime editor with the outlet, will lead the magazine. … The changes will take place in January."

— Tiffany Harness will be foreign policy editor in the NYT's Washington bureau. She most recently was deputy national security editor at WaPo. Announcement

— Melanie Zanona will be a Capitol Hill reporter for CNN. She currently is a Congress reporter covering the House for POLITICO.

— Emmanuel Felton will be the race and ethnicity reporter on WaPo's America desk. He currently is an investigative reporter on BuzzFeed's inequality desk. Announcement

TRANSITION — Casey Frary is now chief of staff at End Citizens United. She previously was CFO at the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

ENGAGED — Alexandra Weinroth, comms director and speechwriter for the House Budget Dems, and Scott Bell, an attorney for Morgan Stanley, got engaged Saturday. He surprised her with a proposal in Cady's Alley in Georgetown following brunch at Duke's Grocery in Dupont, where they originally met at the outdoor communal table in February 2016. They celebrated Saturday night with their dog, Wally, and dinner at Red Hen. Pic … Another pic

A message from the American Investment Council:

This summer looks a lot better because of private equity's investments over the past year. Learn more about private equity's investments at https://www.investmentcouncil.org/summer.