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 | | Daily reported coronavirus cases in the United States, seven-day average.The New York Times |
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Less severe but more deadly? |
New research suggests that the Omicron variant often results in milder illness compared with previous variants. But hospitals could still be flooded with patients because Omicron is exploding so rapidly. |
Researchers in Scotland found that Omicron infections there were associated with a two-thirds reduction in the risk of hospitalization compared with the Delta variant. |
Separately, a team of researchers at Imperial College London compared Omicron and Delta cases in the first two weeks of December and also found a lower risk of hospital visits with the newer variant, though by a smaller amount: Individuals with Omicron were 15 to 20 percent on average less likely to end up in hospitals and 40 to 45 percent less likely to be hospitalized overnight or longer. |
Paradoxically, the researchers also found that the Omicron virus was not that much less dangerous than Delta. The incredible speed of the Omicron surge and the contagiousness of the variant may outweigh its lesser severity, swamping hospitals and causing many deaths. |
"I still can't quite wrap my head around how quickly this is moving," said Joseph Fauver, a genomic epidemiologist at the University of Nebraska Medical Center. "I think it's going to be really bad. I don't know how else to put it." |
One startling new projection suggests a scale of Omicron infections that is almost unimaginable: three billion new coronavirus infections across the world in the next two months — about as many as there have been in the last two years. |
The forecast by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington predicts a peak in late January or early February of as many as 400,000 reported cases per day in the U.S. There were about 250,000 at the height of last winter's surge. The group projects that most of the infections will be mild. |
Take that scenario with a grain of salt: The institute's models have a spotty track record, and its methods have been routinely criticized by outside experts. Its overly rosy predictions in the early months of the pandemic were frequently cited by the Trump administration. |
But even if you aside the group's frightening projection, a consensus among epidemiologists and other experts is emerging: The countermeasures proposed by the Biden administration yesterday will not be sufficient to prevent a grim rise in infections and hospitalizations over the next few weeks. |
Strategies for holiday travel |
Even as the number of coronavirus cases is skyrocketing in some parts of the United States, largely driven by the Omicron variant, the holiday travel rush appears unstoppable. |
On Friday, Los Angeles International Airport reported its busiest day since early 2020, and on Sunday, 2.1 million people passed through airports in the United States, nearly twice as many as at this time last year. |
Only one in six Americans have received a booster shot, according to the C.D.C. Fully vaccinated people without a booster are at least twice as likely to test positive as those who received one. The optimal immune response comes two weeks after your booster dose, but many will see some protection within a few days. |
Test as close to the gathering as possible. |
Many pharmacies and online retailers have sold out of at-home tests, and lines are long at many testing sites. If you do manage to get a kit, or you have to ration just a few, use the tests as close to your departure date as possible, several experts said. |
"The closer you are to the event, the better and more accurate it will be," said Dr. Lin H. Chen, a professor at Harvard Medical School and the director of the Mount Auburn Hospital Travel Medicine Center in Cambridge, Mass. |
Consider the worst-case scenario. |
When deciding what is responsible in terms of holiday travel, Kelly Hills, a co-founder of Rogue Bioethics, a consulting firm in Boston, advises thinking about "moral injury" and asking whether you are mentally prepared for the consequences if you infect a vulnerable person. |
That doesn't have to translate into canceling plans, but it may encourage you to wear an N95 instead of a homemade mask on a plane or to take a test even though it's a hassle. |
- Mayor Bill de Blasio doesn't want to impose new government restrictions, but some health experts say more must be done to slow the spread of Omicron.
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What else we're following |
As a pulmonary rehab nurse working 100+-hour weeks, I often find myself at the breaking point, yet I still go on … I find myself feeling like the Little Dutch Girl trying to plug the dam. I cringe when I see people not wearing masks and not taking Covid-safe precautions. I test frequently, have a small bubble of friends and try to enjoy the beauty of the natural world. — Lisa K. Rainbird, New Mexico |
Tomorrow will bring our last newsletter before Christmas, and we're creating a special edition with your pandemic stories. |
What is the pandemic moment from 2021 that will stick with you for years to come? As a challenge, we're asking you to keep your response to 50 words. If you'd like to participate, you can share your story here. |
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