The second year of the Ukraine war begins

Feb 24, 2023

By Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade

Presented by

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

A photo of a man, dressed in military fatigues, and a woman, wearing a blue dress, kissing while surrounded by a small group during a wedding ceremony on a beach, followed by a photo of smoke rising from between two sections of a building destroyed by a nighttime rocket attack, with silhouetted rescue workers standing among piles of rubble.

Ukrainian photographer Serhii Korovayny spent time in Donbas before Russia's full-scale invasion, and he returned there earlier this month to document how the region has changed. | Photos by Serhii Korovayny for POLITICO

Listen to today's Deep Dive

DRIVING THE DAY

LOOKING BACK — One year ago today, Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN launched an invasion of Ukraine that he thought would quickly topple the government in Kyiv, expose Western powers as feckless and hopelessly divided, and usher in a new, muscular era of Russian world power.

He was wrong on all counts. But the toll of that decision has been immense.

Hundreds of thousands have been killed, including thousands of civilians. More than 14 million displaced Ukrainians have flooded into Europe and beyond. Ripple effects have rocked the global economy, while Russia has found itself further isolated by a refocused NATO alliance rallied to action by President JOE BIDEN and Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY.

A year of unspeakable tragedy has left enormous questions about what lies ahead — more on that in a moment — but the history of this conflict is now beginning to be written. One big piece of that history is how the U.S. and its allies rallied to alert Ukraine to and prepare it for Russia’s invasion, setting the stage for the remarkable defense of its homeland.

Our team has compiled a must-read oral history of the effort, told by those in highest echelons of power, including Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. MARK MILLEY, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, National Security Adviser JAKE SULLIVAN and Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES.

The exhaustive account — compiled by Garrett Graff from dozens of interviews conducted by Erin Banco, Lara Seligman, Nahal Toosi, Alex Ward and others — starts in the months leading up to war, when national security officials first noticed a worrisome buildup of Russian forces, and continues through Biden’s risky surprise trip to Kyiv last week.

Some of the juiciest bits come from the ever-quotable Milley, who offers candid assessments of Ukraine’s state of denial going into the invasion, the poor state of the Russian military and the ongoing need for “escalation management” as the conflict threatens to grind on for months — or longer.

LOOKING AHEAD — While anniversaries are a time to reflect on the past, there are also a moment to ponder what lies ahead, and there are still huge, unresolved geopolitical questions about the war and the world at large.

What will China do? … At the war’s outset, China steered well clear of its fellow authoritarian neighbor — viewing the invasion, like other world powers, as unnecessarily destabilizing. But as the West rallied around Ukraine and Russia increasingly became a pariah state, China has started to hug Putin closer.

Now the Biden administration is openly warning that China could materially involve itself in the Russian war effort, sharing information with allies that the countries’ trade in things like oil and microchips could give way to outright sales of arms and materiel.

Blinken told The Atlantic, for instance, that the U.S. had “picked up information over the last couple of months that strongly indicates that China is now considering doing that.” He described warning Chinese Foreign Minister WANG YI in a Munich sideline meeting this month, where he “reminded him of the many conversations between President Biden and President XI [JINPING] and reminded him that this would be a serious problem in the relationship.”

In a replay of the U.S. strategy toward Russia a year ago, “U.S. officials say they’re trying to force Beijing to back down, in part, by detailing the intelligence they have against them,” our Erin Banco has reported this week. But it’s unclear if it will work, and a more overt Chinese role in the conflict would add another huge complication to an already tense and precarious situation.

— Related reads: “China calls for end of sanctions against Russia, and ceasefire in Ukraine,” by WaPo’s Christian Shepherd … “Blinken heads to Asia, with China, Russia tensions soaring,” by AP’s Matthew Lee

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How long can the U.S. keep fighting the money war? … This morning, Biden will meet with Zelenskyy and G7 leaders to discuss what further assistance Ukraine will need and how to keep putting the financial squeeze on Putin and his allies.

White House Press Secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE told reporters Thursday they administration would be announcing new sanctions “against key sectors that generate revenue for Putin, go after more Russian banks, Russia’s defense and technology industry, and actors in third-party countries that are attempting to backfill and evade our sanctions.”

The admin will also be announcing a new Ukraine aid package. In a CNN town hall Thursday, Sullivan confirmed a Bloomberg scooplet about a new $2 billion tranche of security assistance. More from AP on the aid

But political reality is going to set in later this year, with a Republican House already warning that it won’t keep signing “blank checks” to Ukraine. Yes, there’s a sense among folks in the White House and Capitol Hill that it’s mostly bluster, at least for now, but the question continues to take on a partisan flavor.

A new Fox News poll found that 50% surveyed said the U.S. should continue to support Ukraine “as long as it takes to win” while 46% polled said the timeline should be limited. Broken down by party affiliation, 66% of Democrats favor the former while 61% of Republicans “opt for a time limit on U.S. support.”

Will the West provide more lethal aid? … The question of what weapons to send Ukraine has taken on a familiar pattern: Zelenskyy requests ever more capable Western arms, and U.S. and allied national security officials raise questions about the weapons’ effectiveness or their potential for escalation before ultimately delivering them.

There’s been one big exception so far: Fighter jets. Zelenskyy begged in the early weeks of the conflict for advanced Western aircraft, such as F-16s, to help them defend their skies from Russian attacks, and both Democrats and Republicans in Washington have backed the request.

The Biden administration has dodged the question for months amid concerns any such transfer could risk a direct military confrontation between Russia and the United States. That said, it acted much the same way before agreeing to send over Abrams tanks and Patriot missile defense systems.

At the CNN town hall last night, Sullivan said, "F-16s are not a question for the short-term fight. F-16s are a question for the long-term defense of Ukraine, and that's a conversation that President Biden and President Zelenskyy had,” he said.

— More Ukraine Anniversary Reads: “How American energy helped Europe best Putin,” by Ben Lefebvre … “The Conflict in Ukraine Offers Old — and New — Lessons in 21st-Century Warfare,” by WSJ’s Stephen Fidler … “In Russia-Ukraine war, more disastrous path could lie ahead,” AP … “The Secret Weapons of Ukraine,” by Matt Gallagher for Esquire … “After a year of arming Ukraine, the US and its allies face even more daunting challenges to come,” CNN

Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

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AND THE AWARD GOES TO — The National Press Foundation honored the best in journalism last night at the organization’s annual awards dinner at the Waldorf Astoria hotel. Honorees included The Spokesman-Review’s Orion Donovan Smith, The Boston Globe’s Ward Sutton, Nikkei Asia’s Cheng Ting-Fang, GMA’s Robin Roberts, Mo News’ Mosheh Oinounou, USA Today’s Aleszu Bajak and Ramon Padilla, Christian Science Monitor’s Christa Case Bryant, Austin American-Statesman’s Manny Garcia and NPR’s Scott Simon. During his acceptance speech Simon noted the enduring legacy of hard-nosed reporters and that journalists today should follow their example of being “lyricists not polemicists,” and Roberts said that she was sad to have to miss POLITICO’s after-party, “’cause that looks like a rager.”

SPOTTED at the dinner and the POLITICO-sponsored after-party in the hotel’s reception area, which included themed drinks like the “Politi-croni”: Anne Godlasky, Amos Snead, Brian Walsh, Rodell Mollineau, Zolan Kanno-Youngs, Hans Nichols, David Hudson, Peter Cherukuri, Molly Ball, Mariana Alfaro, Susan Swain, Knight Kiplinger, Sudeep Reddy, Brad Dayspring, Hailey Fuchs, Gloria Gonzalez, JC Whittington, Sean McMinn, Nirmal Mulaikal, Corbin Hiar, Baker Landon, Jack Larsen and Alejandra Waase. Pic

THE PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW: ANTHONY COLEY — Until last month, Anthony Coley was director of public affairs at the Justice Department and a senior adviser to Attorney General MERRICK GARLAND. Coley was in the middle of some of the most extraordinary episodes at DOJ over the last two years, taking incoming fire from right-wing pundits saying Garland was protecting President Biden and left-wing pundits saying the attorney general was protecting former president DONALD TRUMP. In his first interview since leaving Garland’s side, Coley discusses how the Justice Department separates law from politics, why two special counsels might just take the pressure off Garland, and how he grappled with perhaps the most difficult dilemma any government official faces: What do you do when you disagree with the boss? Listen to the full Playbook Deep Dive episode … Subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify

BIDEN’S FRIDAY:

8:30 a.m.: The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief.

9 a.m.: Biden will meet virtually with Zelenskyy and the G-7 leaders.

5:25 p.m.: Biden will leave the White House for New Castle, Del., arriving at 6:20 p.m.

VP KAMALA HARRIS’ FRIDAY — The VP will hold a meeting about access to reproductive health care at 11 a.m.

THE HOUSE and THE SENATE are out.

We’re spilling the tea (and drinking tons of it in our newsroom) in U.K. politics with our latest newsletter, London Playbook PM. Get to know all the movers and shakers in Westminster and never miss a beat of British politics with a free subscription. Don’t miss out, we’ve got some exciting moves coming. Sign up today.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

A man buys a drink from an ice cream truck near the U.S. Capitol.

A man buys a drink from an ice cream truck near the U.S. Capitol on Thursday, Feb. 23, in Washington, D.C., as temperatures in parts of the city reached a high of almost 80 degrees. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

PLAYBOOK READS

2024 WATCH

UP FOR DEBATE — The RNC announced that the first GOP presidential primary debate of the cycle will take place in Milwaukee in August, alongside the party’s summer meeting, per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. More details aren’t yet available, but the debate will precede next year’s Republican National Convention in the city. Some of the significant outstanding questions include whether the RNC will force debate participants to sign a loyalty pledge vowing to back the ultimate GOP nominee, and whether it will impose a floor on the number of individual donors a candidate needs to make the stage, per NYT’s Maggie Haberman and Maggie Astor.

FIELD OF DREAMS — The early days of the GOP campaign in Iowa indicate a broadly unsettled caucus electorate and a long path ahead for the would-be contenders, Natalie Allison reports from Des Moines this morning after three days on the ground. NIKKI HALEY and Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) found both warm receptions and picky voters just starting to test the field. Natalie finds lots of voters who are “inclined to support Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS … cautious about former President Donald Trump, and open to hearing from the rest of the field.” And some of them are worried about Iowa losing a bit of its first-in-the-nation shine.

SHE’S RUNNING — MARIANNE WILLIAMSON confirmed that she will indeed jump into the Democratic presidential primary to Medill News Service’s Brennan Leach. “Williamson described the country as in the midst of a threat of authoritarianism, where corporate oligarchs, fossil fuel companies, gun manufacturers, and the military industrial complex ‘suck the juice’ out of democracy.”

CASH DASH — “Some ‘middle-class’ wealthy donors are annoyed about being ignored by DeSantis,” by Semafor’s Bradley Saacks

MORE POLITICS

McCARTHY’S PITCH — Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY and NRCC Chair RICHARD HUDSON (R-N.C.) blamed losing gubernatorial candidates like DOUG MASTRIANO and TUDOR DIXON for the House GOP’s underperformance last year in a pitch to donors, Axios’ Hans Nichols and Josh Kraushaar report. The underperformance at the top of the ticket probably cost the party eight House seats, the pair argued at a Florida retreat.

CITY OF DEEP POCKETS — “Pritzker Will Do What It Takes to Keep Both DeSantis and Trump Out of the White House,” by Bloomberg’s Laura Davison and Shruti Singh

BATTLE FOR THE SENATE — “Jason Chaffetz leaves door open to challenging Mitt Romney for Senate in 2024,” by the Washington Examiner’s Cami Mondeaux: “It’s ‘not something I am actively pursuing, but I am keeping all my doors open,’ he told the Washington Examiner in a brief statement.”

THE WHITE HOUSE

BERNIE BENDING BIDEN’S EAR — “White House aides have discussed Social Security tax, eyeing shortfall,” by WaPo’s Jeff Stein: Sen. BERNIE SANDERS pushed Biden in a January meeting to shore up Social Security “by expanding payroll taxes on affluent Americans, rather than just on workers’ first $160,000 in earnings, as is the case under current law. … This previously unreported discussion between Biden and his onetime presidential primary rival reflects a broader behind-the-scenes effort inside the White House to decide how, or if, the party’s message on entitlements should go beyond criticizing the GOP.”

PRESENTS PRESENCE — “Putin, Afghans among top gift givers to Bidens in 2021,” by AP’s Matthew Lee

CONGRESS

SINEMATOGRAPHY — “Kyrsten Sinema’s $300,000 Security Expert Is Tulsi Gabbard’s Sister,” by The Daily Beast’s Sam Brodey: “[T]he previously unreported arrangement between [Sen. KYRSTEN] SINEMA and [VRINDIVAN GABBARD] BELLORD raises several ethics concerns, according to campaign finance law experts. … [One expert] remarked the $300,000-plus sum that Bellord received from Sinema was ‘eye-opening’ and that the fact that the senator is her only apparent client is ‘one of the biggest red flags.’”

PIGS FLYING — “Bipartisanship Isn’t Dead. Here’s What Congress Might Actually Agree on,” by Bloomberg’s Steven Dennis, Laura Litvan and Erik Wasson

FOR YOUR RADAR — “Rep. Judy Chu hits back at Texas Republican over ‘racist’ remarks questioning her loyalty to U.S.,” by NBC’s Zoë Richards

TRUMP CARDS

TURNING THE PAGE — A federal judge ruled yesterday that Trump and FBI Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY can be deposed in long-gestating lawsuits filed by PETER STRZOK and LISA PAGE, Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein report. That could raise the unusual prospect of the former president’s testimony being compelled in the former FBI officials’ legal protests of their treatment under the Trump administration. “But there’s a twist: Their ability to ask Trump and Wray about these circumstances might come down to a decision from President Joe Biden,” if DOJ decides to assert executive privilege for Trump.

JUDICIARY SQUARE

SCOTUS WATCH — “U.S. Supreme Court’s ‘major questions’ test may doom Biden student debt plan,” by Reuters’ John Kruzel: The court will hear “arguments next Tuesday in appeals by President Joe Biden’s administration of lower court rulings blocking his plan announced last August to cancel $430 billion in student debt. Legal experts said Biden’s program … may be scrutinized by the court under the so-called major questions doctrine. Its 6-3 conservative majority has employed this muscular judicial approach to invalidate major Biden policies deemed lacking clear congressional authorization.”

ANTITRUST THE PROCESS — “DOJ Preps Antitrust Suit to Block Adobe’s $20 Billion Figma Deal,” by Bloomberg’s Leah Nylen, Anna Edgerton and Brody Ford … “U.S. Justice Dept accuses Google of evidence destruction in antitrust case,” by Reuters’ Mike Scarcella

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JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

THE PENCE SUBPOENA FIGHT — Special counsel JACK SMITH’s team is asking a federal judge to force former VP MIKE PENCE to comply with a subpoena and testify, CBS’ Robert Costa and Robert Legare scooped. The filing followed Pence indicating that he wouldn’t comply and Trump’s lawyers asserting executive privilege. “Two people familiar with the investigation say the chief judge has also made a common move during a grand-jury investigation, issuing a court instruction for secrecy, or ‘gag order,’ in recent days.”

THE BAND PERRY — The majority of three federal appellate judges on a panel yesterday appeared at least somewhat open to Rep. SCOTT PERRY’s (R-Pa.) claim that he should be constitutionally protected from DOJ investigators accessing the content of his seized cellphone, Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney report. But “it was unclear whether that disagreement would translate into a ruling that denies investigators access … The complex dispute has enormous implications for Congress itself and the scope of protection that lawmakers enjoy from the speech or debate clause.”

COMING FOR THE COMMITTEE — “Trump-allied group wants J6 committee staffers blacklisted,” by Hailey Fuchs and Kyle Cheney: “In a letter sent to hundreds of recipients on the Hill, the dark money group American Accountability Foundation listed the names of the former committee staffers and their titles — along with their new employers and links to their firms’ clients — all of whom they urged to blacklist.”

SLIGHT DEMOCRACY PENALTY — “PAC money to electoral count objectors fell 10 percent,” by Roll Call’s Kate Ackley

THE ECONOMY

A DIFFERENT KIND OF CHINESE BALLOON — “Why China’s reopening could be bad news for the Fed,” by Victoria Guida: “Federal Reserve officials are increasingly wary that the country’s reopening after years of Covid lockdowns could stoke demand for inflation-driving commodities like energy and food, undercutting their efforts to tame the biggest price spikes in four decades.”

SLIGHTLY LESS STRONG — “Economy grew by 2.7% in fourth quarter of 2022, holding up despite rising interest rates,” by the Washington Examiner’s Zachary Halaschak

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

DeSANTIS’ RED MEAT — “Before expected White House run, DeSantis woos GOP voters with more migrant crackdowns,” by the Tallahassee Democrat’s John Kennedy: “DeSantis said he will push Florida lawmakers to approve enhanced penalties for human smuggling, require businesses to use the federal E-Verify system when hiring workers, and impose further blocks on undocumented immigrants seeking drivers’ licenses or attempting to vote.”

From Tallahassee, our colleague Matt Dixon outlines just how striking DeSantis’ moves are — as an indicator of the GOP’s recent rightward lurch on immigration during the Trump era: Some of these are “protections that less than a decade ago were popular with many Florida Republicans, including DeSantis’ own lieutenant governor.”

CLIMATE FILES — “The U.S. Has Billions for Wind and Solar Projects. Good Luck Plugging Them In,” by NYT’s Brad Plumer: “The energy transition poised for takeoff in the United States amid record investment in wind, solar and other low-carbon technologies is facing a serious obstacle: The volume of projects has overwhelmed the nation’s antiquated systems to connect new sources of electricity to homes and businesses.”

WHITE NOISE — “In Fog of East Palestine’s Crisis, Politicians Write Their Own Stories,” by NYT’s Jonathan Weisman: “In some sense, both sides are right, both sides are wrong and, in the bifurcated politics of this American moment, none of the arguments much matter.”

Related reads: “How the East Palestine train derailment fueled fear on TikTok,” by NBC’s Daysia Tolentino and Morgan Sung … “The overlooked message behind Republicans’ response to the Ohio train derailment,” by Vox’s Ben Jacobs

MEDIAWATCH

THE SMOKING GUN? — “‘Incredibly damning:’ Fox News documents stun some legal experts,” by WaPo’s Paul Farhi, Jeremy Barr and Sarah Ellison: The trove of internal emails and texts released in court documents last week “has greatly increased the chances that a defamation case against the network will succeed, legal experts say.”

ZAS BACKS LICHT — “David Zaslav Praises CNN Adding More GOP Voices; ‘Balance Strategy’ Is ‘Important,’ Warner Bros Discovery Boss Says,” by Deadline’s Dominic Patten

TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week”: Weijia Jiang, Abby Phillip, Vivian Salama and David Sanger.

SUNDAY SO FAR …

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) … William Hennessy Jr. Panel: Mo Elleithee, Josh Kraushaar, Beverly Hallberg and Jeff Roe.

MSNBC “The Sunday Show”: Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) … Howard Dean … Kevin Baron.

NBC “Meet the Press”: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska). Panel: Jonathan Alter, Al Cardenas, Tamara Keith and Kristen Welker.

ABC “This Week”: Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas). Panel: Chris Christie, Donna Brazile, Terry Moran and Asma Khalid.

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PLAYBOOKERS

IN MEMORIAM — “Tony Earl, Wisconsin’s 41st governor who championed the environment, equal rights, dies at age 86,” by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Bill Glauber: “Earl, who rose from the state Assembly to top administration jobs and one term as governor from 1983 to 1987, died Thursday after suffering from a stroke last weekend.”

EYES ON THE PRIZE — The American Society of Magazine Editors announced the finalists for this year’s National Magazine Awards, with New York magazine topping the list of the most-nominated publications. There are way too many notable and politically relevant nominees for us to list here, but they include everything from Caitlin Dickerson’s history of the family separation policy to Andrew Rice and Olivia Nuzzi on Hunter Biden’s laptop to Emily Bazelon’s controversial feature on gender therapy. POLITICO had finalists in two categories, for these photos of Afghan women after the Taliban takeover by Nanna Muus Steffensen and this digital illustration of the Conways by Michelle Rohn.

SPOTTED: DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas having coffee yesterday with a former colleague on the patio at the Tatte in Dupont Circle.

OUT AND ABOUT — The Association of Republican Presidential Appointees hosted a party for former acting Defense Secretary Chris Miller’s new book, “Soldier Secretary” ($15.99), at the Army Navy Club on Wednesday night. SPOTTED: Mark Mitchell, Paul Dans, Spencer Chretien, Earl Matthews, Robert Ganim, Courtland Sykes, Josh Whitehouse, Nicholas Andersen, Sam Spector, Chris Harnisch, Peter Knickerbocker, Parker Doyle, Roosevelt Ditlevson, Harrison Floyd and Anna Kopperud.

TRANSITIONS — Ben Harris is leaving his role as assistant secretary for economic policy at the Treasury Department, where he helped design the price cap on Russian oil, Axios’ Hans Nichols reports. He’s probably headed back to academia. … Former Afghan Ambassador Adela Raz is now a visiting fellow at the Hudson Institute. …

… Ashley Doyle is now political operations manager for Team Emmer. She previously was director of operations for Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas). … Jake Corsi is now a legislative assistant for Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.). He previously was a legislative correspondent for Rep. Diana Harshbarger (R-Tenn.).

BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Rep. Mike Flood (R-Neb.)

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: WaPo’s Jacqueline Alemany … Bruce Andrews … SKDK’s Karen Olick … Sabrina Tavernise … White House’s Devin Lynch (4-0) … Cliff May … Interior’s Kate Kelly … NYT’s Kate Kelly … Mark Salter … Juliet K. Choi … Julie Adams of the Senate sergeant-at-arms office … McLaurine (Klingler) Pinover … POLITICO’s Connor O’Brien and Mark Matthews … Christina Cameron … Abram Olmstead … Kevin Dando … former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Kelly Craft … Jacqueline Hackett … former Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) … Paula Zahn … former Rep. Chris Chocola (R-Ind.) (6-0) … Andrew Giacini … former acting Massachusetts Gov. Jane Swift … Josh Gardner … Karen Persichilli Keogh of New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s office … Emily Feldman … Amazon’s Lindsay Hamilton … Aidan Lizza

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