Is Trump’s third indictment imminent?

Jul 19, 2023

By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels

Presented by

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Former President Donald Trump addresses supporters.

Yesterday’s news that special counsel Jack Smith sent former president Donald Trump a target letter — suggesting that he’s likely to face charges related to the Jan. 6 storming of the Capitol — set all of Washington atwitter. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

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DRIVING THE DAY

It was supposed to be RON DeSANTIS’ big day.

Following a deluge of negative headlines about campaign staff layoffs and polling problems, the Florida governor hoped to hit the reset button yesterday with a new military-focused policy launch and a rare sitdown interview with a mainstream, nonpartisan media outlet: CNN.

Instead, DONALD TRUMP — once again — stole the headlines.

Yesterday’s news that special counsel JACK SMITH sent the former president a target letter — suggesting that he’s likely to face charges related to the Jan. 6 storming of the Capitol — set all of Washington atwitter.

And no wonder: Receiving such a missive is typically the last step before a person gets indicted. Trump, in fact, received similar target letters just days before he was charged with mishandling classified documents and crimes associated with hush money payments during the 2016 election.

If that same timeline holds here and we’re again just days away from criminal charges, Trump could see a third indictment as early as this weekend.

And that was just the beginning of the Trump-related news windfall. Democratic Michigan AG DANA NESSEL filed charges against 16 GOP officials and activists who together made up a phony slate of electors that sought to cast Electoral College votes for Trump even though JOE BIDEN won the state. It is the first Jan. 6-related indictment we’ve seen beyond those brought against people who were physically laying siege to the Capitol.

DeSantis’ CNN appearance perfectly captured the upstaging: Host JAKE TAPPER’s first questions to the White House hopeful centered not on how DeSantis would lead as president, but on Trump’s legal woes. Within minutes, CNN cut away from DeSantis to the unfolding news about Trump’s target letter and the Michigan indictments — and then didn’t pick back up with the Florida governor’s much-hyped interview until later in the program.

The timing of Trump’s announcement that he’d received the target letter — which, as a reminder, he got Sunday — was so perfectly synced with DeSantis’ CNN appearance that we had to ask Trump world if it was intentional. Was the former president trolling his top 2024 opponent by taking over the news cycle? We were told that no, it wasn’t intentional — though Trump’s team didn’t mind how it rained on DeSantis’ parade.

The entire situation underscores the almost Groundhog Day-like dynamic that continues to plague the 2024 GOP primary: Over and over again, Trump’s scandals suck up all the oxygen as other candidates struggle to garner attention.

And we’re not just talking about DeSantis. News dropped yesterday that a super PAC backing Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) is placing $40 million in TV and digital ads propping up their guy in early voting states. Any other day, that headline would be a top talker. Instead, it was just an afterthought.

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

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THE LEGAL & POLITICAL FALLOUT — Last night, ABC’s Katherine Faulders and John Santucci reported that Trump’s target letter mentioned three federal statutes: (1) “conspiracy to commit offense or to defraud the United States”; (2) “deprivation of rights under color of law”; and (3) “tampering with a witness, victim or an informant.”

Prosecutors are giving Trump until tomorrow to tell them if he plans to testify before the grand jury, though no one really expects him to.

We’re told that the former president has been seething about the potential indictment, asking things like, “Can you believe this?” and using vulgarities to vent his displeasure. Allies on Capitol Hill, including Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY and House GOP Conference Chair ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.), have called to check on him and vowed to do all they can to fight on his behalf, as was first reported by CNN.

ON CAPITOL HILL: Some Trump loyalists want the House Judiciary Committee to start subpoenaing Smith’s investigators — though two Judiciary sources pushed back on that, calling such a move premature.

Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) is renewing demands to defund the special counsel, though GOP moderates are firmly against the idea.

And talking points suggesting that the charges are nothing more than the political “weaponization” of the judicial system are flying around, fast and furious. Per a source familiar, GOP leaders plan to point out that last time Trump was indicted, it was the same day Republicans announced that a whistleblower alleged that Biden participated in a bribery scheme. This time, Republicans will note, the charges come as a whistleblower who alleged political interference in the case against HUNTER BIDEN prepares to publicly testify.

Across the rotunda, Senate Republicans — who are, frankly, sick of Trump’s baggage — mostly shrugged at the news of a potential looming indictment, according to The Messenger’s Nolan McCaskill and Lindsey McPherson. “I don’t even know who he’s getting indicted by,” said Sen. SHELLEY MOORE CAPITO (R-W.Va.). “It’s a never-ending story.”

And check out this quote from Sen. CYNTHIA LUMMIS (R-Wyo.) to HuffPost’s Igor Bobic, on public numbness to more Trump indictment news: “I think it shows that politicians lie and they know they’re lying … The liar knows that people know he’s lying, and the people that are being lied to know they’re being lied to.” Yeesh.

ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL: Republican 2024 candidates who’ve previously tiptoed around Trump’s legal issues — or even defended the former president on prior charges — have started to lob criticism, albeit very tepidly.

DeSantis said Trump “should have come out more forcefully” to stop the violence on Jan. 6, but still argued that he shouldn’t be charged.

VIVEK RAMASWAMY, who has said he would pardon Trump if elected president, told our colleagues Adam Wren and Natalie Allison that he “would have made very different judgments than President Trump did” that day.

And NIKKI HALEY appeared on Fox News arguing that Trump’s legal controversies threatened to become a big distraction for Republicans in 2024. “We can’t keep dealing with this drama,” she said. “We can’t be sitting there focused on lawsuits over and over again.”

Will a third indictment hurt Trump politically? His team certainly doesn’t think so. Neither do most Republicans in Washington. And if past is prologue, they’ll be right.

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BIDEN’S WEDNESDAY:

12:15 p.m.: The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief, with VP KAMALA HARRIS attending.

3 p.m.: Biden will lead a Competition Council meeting with announcement of new administration actions to bolster economic competition.

6 p.m.: The Bidens will host the White House Congressional Picnic on the South Lawn, with Harris attending.

Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 1 p.m.

HARRIS’ WEDNESDAY — The VP will also attend Israeli President ISAAC HERZOG’s address to Congress at 11 a.m. and have a bilateral meeting with him at 3:50 p.m.

THE HOUSE will meet at 9 a.m before recessing. It will later take up bills condemning the use of schools as migrant shelters and reauthorizing the FAA.

THE SENATE is in, with a recess from 12:30 p.m. to 2:15 p.m. for weekly conference meetings.

At 11 a.m., both chambers will hold a joint meeting to receive Herzog’s address.

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PHOTO OF THE DAY

President Joe Biden meets with Israeli President Isaac Herzog in the Oval Office at the White House on July 18, 2023. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

PLAYBOOK READS

2024 WATCH

SPOTLIGHT ON DeSANTIS — Tough news keeps coming for the DeSantis campaign: NBC News’ Matt Dixon, Natasha Korecki and Jonathan Allen reported last night that donors and allies are urging a staff shakeup. Specifically, knives are out for campaign manager GENERRA PECK, who one donor says is “hanging by a thread” as multiple allies urge her firing or demotion. But another source says she’s retained the support of the DeSantises.

Peck does not particularly want to be in the headlines, McClatchy’s David Catanese reports in a new profile that paints her as a woman with a “cucumber-cool, hyper-insular mantra” finding herself the subject of intense scrutiny for the first time. The 36-year-old tries to keep her work free of drama and far from the press — a big reason why the DeSantises picked her. This is her first time leading a national campaign; she entered the DeSantis orbit via PHIL COX.

THE REELECT RAMPS UP — Biden’s campaign seems to be kicking into a slightly higher gear with attacks on GOP rivals, ads and endorsements. For the first time, the reelect criticized Trump and DeSantis by name. The former came in an official statement to Natalie Allison and Holly Otterbein that contrasts their economic records and dings the former president for “softball townhalls.” The latter was in a statement to ABC’s Fritz Farrow that slammed DeSantis for saying that “‘not everyone really knows what wokeness is’ — admitting his hallmark campaign issue is a contrived political stunt.”

A cheeky new spot Biden tweeted out simply repurposes recent criticism from Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) that he’s “actually finishing what FDR started, that LBJ expanded on” as a positive thing. (They have very different perceptions of his agenda across an array of issue areas.)

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: The United Association of Union Plumbers and Pipefitters is endorsing Biden’s reelection bid today, the earliest they’ve backed a presidential contender. UA is putting almost $1 million into a digital and satellite TV ad buy in a member-to-member campaign, running across the country for a month and in battleground states for another.

GREAT SCOTT — Even as Scott is set to be the beneficiary of a $40 million ad buy from a super PAC — more than any other candidate, dwarfing Trump’s and DeSantis’ ads combined thus far — “he just can’t seem to catch fire” beyond a small boost in recent polls, Brakkton Booker reports this morning. Some Republican strategists tell Brakkton that despite his broad appeal to Republicans, he hasn’t surmounted the hurdle of building broad support, especially when he’s up against Trump and his criminal indictments: “even the most accomplished and well-liked candidate entering at the right point in his career may not be enough.”

TRUMP CARDS

THE OTHER TRUMP CASE — A pre-trial hearing in the classified documents criminal case against Trump ended yesterday without Judge AILEEN CANNON setting a date for the trial, but she sounded at least somewhat skeptical of both sides’ preferred timelines, WaPo’s Perry Stein and Mark Berman report from Fort Pierce, Fla. Cannon seemed “wary” of federal prosecutors’ push to begin the trial this year — and of the Trump lawyers’ request that it be delayed until after the 2024 election. Cannon said her decision would come soon.

JUDICIARY SQUARE

TODAY’S BIG HEARING — “Biden’s asylum changes reduced border crossings. But are the rules legal?” by WaPo’s Maria Sacchetti in Brownsville, Texas: “A federal judge is set Wednesday to hear a challenge to the Biden administration’s new restrictions on seeking asylum, a case that could upend the fragile calm that has taken hold in U.S. border cities and reshape America’s role as a refuge for foreigners fleeing harm.”

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MORE POLITICS

WHAT MATT ROSENDALE IS READING — “He’s Running for Senate as a Montana Rancher. He’s Skipped Out on the Rancher Taxes,” by The Daily Beast’s Sam Brodey: “TIM SHEEHY hasn’t registered his cattle or farm animals in years with the state. When The Daily Beast asked his campaign about it, they acknowledged Sheehy had messed up.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

JUST POSTED — This morning in Prague, MI6 chief RICHARD MOORE sat down with our own Anne McElvoy for a rare interview on topics ranging from Ukraine to foreign intelligence to AI’s impact on national security. Watch the video

WASHINGTON’S ISRAEL WEEK — Biden met with Herzog yesterday, the day before the Israeli president’s address to a joint session of Congress — and just as intra-party tensions on Israel bubbled over once again.

Biden has struggled to navigate the relationship with a key Middle East ally whose government has increasingly veered hard right, NYT’s Michael Shear and Patrick Kingsley write. Yesterday, Biden kept things cordial and positive — but questions are already swirling about whether more conservative Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU will be granted a White House audience too.

Meanwhile on the Hill, Rep. PRAMILA JAYAPAL’s (D-Wash.) recent comment that Israel is a “racist state” led to the bipartisan passage of a House resolution declaring that it is not in fact a “racist or apartheid state,” ABC’s Lauren Peller and Alexandra Hutzler recap. Republicans sought to make hay with Democratic divisions on the issue, while pro-Israel lawmakers saw an opportunity to push back against criticism. The lopsided vote was 412-9, with 1 “present” vote. Jayapal was notably among the yes votes. (Several of her progressive colleagues were not.)

It was an “unusual” misstep “for a progressive who’s been careful to avoid the wrath of the party establishment on the matter,” even as other progressives were treading with caution this week, Nick Wu and Sarah Ferris write.

At the same time, the Commerce Department yesterday blacklisted a pair of spyware firms led by an Israeli former general that have sparked a political scandal in Greece, NYT’s Mark Mazzetti reports.

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — “Xi Says China Will Act on Climate Goals at Its Own Pace,” by NYT’s Lisa Friedman and Chris Buckley: “[Chinese President XI JINPING] did not meet [JOHN KERRY] during the envoy’s four-day visit, but he reiterated China’s position in a speech to environmental officials in Beijing. China remained ‘unwaveringly’ committed to reaching its peak in carbon emissions before 2030 and becoming carbon neutral by 2060, he told them this week.”

CONGRESS

TAKING STOCK — “Senators to Propose Ban on U.S. Lawmakers, Executive Branch Members Owning Stock,” by WSJ’s Brody Mullins: “The bill from Sens. KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND (D., N.Y.) and JOSH HAWLEY (R., Mo.) would permit the president, vice president, lawmakers, Capitol Hill aides and employees of the executive branch to own mutual funds and broad industry and index funds. But it would prohibit them from owning stocks in individual companies, even in blind trusts.”

THE FUNDING FIGHT — “House GOP seeks billions in cuts to rail, water infrastructure spending,” by WaPo’s Tony Romm and Ian Duncan: “A series of GOP bills to finance the federal government in 2024 would wipe out billions of dollars meant to repair the nation’s aging infrastructure, potentially undercutting a 2021 law that was one of Washington’s rare recent bipartisan achievements. The proposed cuts could hamstring some of the most urgently needed public-works projects across the country, from improving rail safety to reducing lead contamination at schools.”

THE TALENTED MR. SANTOS — “House GOP support for Santos censure builds,” by Olivia Beavers, Sarah Ferris and Nick Wu: “[A]t least six Republicans told POLITICO they would support the measure if it comes to the House floor for a vote: Reps. NICK LaLOTA, MARC MOLINARO, ANTHONY D’ESPOSITO, NICK LANGWORTHY and MIKE LAWLER, all New Yorkers, as well as Ohio’s MAX MILLER.”

THE NEW GOP (JUST LIKE THE OLD GOP) — “LGBTQ-related earmarks stripped out by GOP during House markup,” by Roll Call’s Aidan Quigley: “House Republicans struck three Democratic projects that would provide services to the LGBTQ community during Tuesday’s fiscal 2024 Transportation-HUD Appropriations markup, enraging Democrats on the committee.”

HOT ON THE RIGHT — “Biden investigation: House GOP rolls out IRS ‘A-team’ whistleblowers Wednesday,” by the Washington Examiner’s Reese Gorman: “On Wednesday, the two IRS whistleblowers whose testimony has been key in the House’s investigation into Hunter Biden will testify publicly for the first time before the House Oversight and Accountability Committee.”

PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — “Support builds in Congress for more flights at Reagan National,” by Alex Daugherty

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PLAYBOOKERS

Wilbur Ross is reportedly hosting an event for Glenn Youngkin.

Jack Smith ate fresh.

John Hickenlooper will someday be living in a big ole city.

Ta-Nehisi Coates crashed a South Carolina school board meeting that was debating banning his book.

James Gordon Meek has reached a plea deal in his child pornography case.

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the CPAC Ratings award reception last night at the Capitol Hill Club: Sens. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), Mike Braun (R-Ind.) and Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Reps. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), Ronny Jackson (R-Texas), Mark Green (R-Tenn.) and James Comer (R-Ky.).

— Lyndon Boozer, David Jones and Gerry Harrington hosted a reelection fundraiser last night for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries at Modena, raising six figures. SPOTTED: Reps. Rob Menendez (D-N.J.) and Seth Magaziner (D-R.I.), De’Ana Dow, Monique Frazier, Reed Hundt, Stuart Appelbaum, Stephanie Peters, Michele Stanley, Katreice Banks, Nolen Bivens, Marcus Mason, Anthony Estreet and Robert Griner.

— Climate Power launched a new organization, Climate Power En Acción, with an event at Paraíso to celebrate the project aimed at reaching Latinos to build support for the clean energy transition. SPOTTED: Antonieta Cadiz, Reps. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas), Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.), Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.) and Nanette Barragán (D-Calif.), Hector Sanchez Barba, Clarissa Martinez De Castro, Mark Magaña, Michelle Villegas, Ximena Bustillo, Mustafa Santiago Ali, Chuck Rocha, Lizeth Ortega Luna, Carolina Peña-Alarcón and Rafael Ulloa.

— Rokk Solutions hosted a “Women Who Rokk” event last night at Sonoma Wine Bar. SPOTTED: Reps. Brittany Pettersen (D-Colo.) and Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.), Marianna Sotomayor, Ron Bonjean, Kristen Hawn, Erin Flior, Alexia Baillow, Allison Jaslow, Lauren Hamma, Lauren Flynn, Lisa Hanna, Erica Harris, Raya Kenney, Sarah Schepker, Jeremy Wilson-Simerman, Stephanie Polis, Kathryn Stack and Avery Marti.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The U.S. Senate Press Secretaries Association held elections yesterday to choose its new board. The members are David Bader, Rachel Dumke, Ryann DuRant, Phoebe Ferraiolo, Gabriela Garcia-Ugalde, Amy Hasenberg, Rachel Skaar, Josh Sorbe, Valeria Rivadeneira and Natalie Yezbick.

MEDIA MOVE — Reese Gorman is now a congressional reporter for the Washington Examiner. He most recently was a state politics reporter for The Frontier in Oklahoma.

WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Josh Zoffer is now special assistant to the president for economic policy. He most recently was senior adviser to the deputy Treasury secretary.

TRANSITIONS — Hannah Garden-Monheit has been named director of competition council policy, a newly created role on the National Economic Council to take on antitrust. More from Reuters … Gayraud Townsend is now chief of staff at People for the American Way. He previously was CEO at Twenty Kemp Strategies. … Rich Dunn is now a partner at Guidant Polling and Strategy. He most recently was a managing director at FP1 Strategies and Plus Communications, and is an NRCC and Tim Scott alum.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Alexa Kissinger, attorney at Kirkland & Ellis and an Obama White House alum, and Gareth Rhodes, managing director of Pacific Street Group, on July 11 welcomed Inez Maria Kissinger Rhodes, who came in at 7 lbs, 2 oz. Pic

— Megan McConaughey, chief of staff and director of the Congressional Fellowship Program at the American Political Science Association, and Paul Musgrave, a professor at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, welcomed Robin Musgrave on Monday. Pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Playbook’s own Rachael Bade … Reps. Ron Estes (R-Kan.) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) (5-0) … WSJ’s Rebecca Ballhaus … WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf … Capitol Counsel’s Lyndon Boozer … DOE’s Jeff Marootian … Locust Street Group’s Ben Jenkins (44) … Larry McCarthy … Rick Dearborn … Eric Lichtblau … Andrea Porwoll ... POLITICO’s Lauren Gardner, Luis Pinto de Sa, Gregory Svirnovskiy, Massimo Artista and Matt Comer … Joe Goetz … DOD’s Kelly Magsamen … Lindsee Gentry … Google’s Maria Giannopoulos … former Rep. John Campbell (R-Calif.) … NBC’s Alex Johnson … Keegan Bales … Stephen Ching … Stephanie Valencia … Atossa Araxia Abrahamian … The Hill’s Rema Rahman … Bloomberg’s Mary Newman … Howard Schultz (7-0) … Rachel Robinson (1-0-1) … Andrew Mizsak of Main Street Consultants

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Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook mistakenly included someone who died in 2022 in the birthdays section.

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