| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
|  This race has congealed into three tiers, with Donald Trump alone at the top. | Giorgio Viera/AFP via Getty Images | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | LEDE OF THE DAY — From Maureen Dowd’s latest: “A man is running to run the government he tried to overthrow while he was running it, even as he is running to stay ahead of the law.” ONE MONTH FROM TODAY — The Republican presidential candidates gather for their first primary debate. AS OF TODAY — A flurry of stories this morning remind us that this race has congealed into three tiers: (1) DONALD TRUMP, (2) Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS and (3) everybody else. We have two new Fox News Business polls of likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers and South Carolina primary voters …. In Iowa: Trump … 46%
DeSantis … 16%
TIM SCOTT …11%
VIVEK RAMASWAMY … 6%
NIKKI HALEY … 5% In South Carolina: Trump … 48%
Haley … 14%
DeSantis …13%
Scott … 10%
MIKE PENCE … 4% These results officially qualify Trump, DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswamy, Scott and CHRIS CHRISTIE for the debate, as Zach Montellaro and Steve Shepard write. ON TIER TWO: DeSantis will enter his second week of his campaign reset, with the campaign promising an “insurgent candidate” mindset and focusing on more national issues. His advisers promise a “leaner-meaner” operation after allies have complained about a consistent campaign message, as NYT’s Shane Goldmacher and Maggie Haberman report. The most interesting nugget in their story deals with that bizarre online video the campaign shared, which attacked Trump for being too friendly to the LGBTQ community and was widely knocked as homophobic: “[I]t turns out to be more of a self-inflicted wound than was previously known: A DeSantis campaign aide had originally produced the video internally, passing it off to an outside supporter to post it first and making it appear as if it was generated independently, according to a person with knowledge of the incident.” Meanwhile, Trump is keeping DeSantis in his sights, aiming to prevent him from gaining on him in the polls. This weekend, the frontrunner took aim at the Florida governor in at least four different “slickly produced clips,” according to our Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing. The goal, at least in part, is to make DeSantis’ Florida record a liability; one of the videos features Trump knocking DeSantis for the cost of living as a housing insurance crisis continues to plague Florida. “‘The DeSanctimonious super-PAC, Always Back Down, should focus more on Florida property and auto insurance, which has zoomed to highest-in-the-nation status, and highest by far, instead of spending money on a campaign that’s going absolutely nowhere,’ Trump says to the camera in one clip. ‘Come home, Ron, where you belong. Get those insurance rates way down, because what’s happening in Florida shouldn’t happen anywhere.’” DeSantis’ record on Covid also comes in for scrutiny in a huge story from NYT’s Sharon LaFraniere, Patricia Mazzei and Albert Sun, who dive into the data to find the human toll of the Florida governor’s shift from a strong vaccine advocate in the early days of the pandemic to anti-vaccine mandate crusader. After he stopped praising Covid vaccines, the state became disproportionately vulnerable during the Delta wave, with a majority of the 23,000 dead Floridians not fully vaccinated. “Floridians died at a higher rate, adjusted for age, than residents of almost any other state during the Delta wave, according to the Times analysis.” One study estimates that if Florida had matched New England’s vaccination rate, 16,000 lives would have been saved. In short: “As the governor’s political positions began to shift, so did his state’s death rate, for the worse.”
| | | | A message from Capital Access Alliance: As Congress prepares to vote on the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Reauthorization bill, a United Airlines-backed coalition is working to mislead lawmakers and the public.
Worried about potentially losing your flight out of Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA)? Read the bill, it's purely additive and would have no negative impact on current in-perimeter service. The Direct Capital Access Act (DCA Act) will authorize additional flights and provide more options for travelers near and far. Learn more. | | | ON TIER THREE: Typically, a former VP would be a leading presidential candidate, raking in money from all over the country, consistently pulling double digits in polling. But that’s just not happening for Pence. WaPo’s Marianne LeVine reports on his struggle to gain enough individual donors to qualify for the first debate. (Particularly troubling for him is that unlike some of the other candidates struggling to gain traction, it’s not as if voters don’t know who Pence is.) “While Pence’s advisers are emphatic that he will make the debate stage, the mere uncertainty is emblematic of the early challenges the Indiana Republican is confronting in his nascent campaign. … Now, as he touts his conservative credentials and his experience as a former governor, he faces the tricky dynamic of highlighting the Trump-Pence administration’s accomplishments while simultaneously arguing that it’s time to move on from Trump.” One man who could break out of Tier Three status: Scott. CNN’s Harry Enten has a worthwhile piece of analysis this morning: “Why Tim Scott may be one to watch in the GOP presidential race” Another Tier Three candidate with the resources to go all the way: North Dakota Gov. DOUG BURGUM, who’s the subject of the WSJ’s Weekend Interview. Interesting bit: “As for the culture wars, Mr. Burgum is a constitutional conscientious objector. ‘They have nothing to do with being president of the United States,’ he says. ‘The 10th Amendment is very clear about what the federal government’s role is.’” Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. SUNDAY BEST … — Rep. NANCY PELOSI (D-Calif.) on Rachael’s scoop that Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY had secretly promised Trump a vote to expunge his impeachments, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “Kevin is playing politics. It’s not even clear if he constitutionally can expunge those things. If he wants to put his members in difficult races on the spot, that’s a decision he has to make. But this is not responsible. This is not about the flag still being there. This is about being afraid. … Trump is the puppeteer, and what does he do all the time but shine a light on the strings? These people look pathetic.” — Ramaswamy on campaign fundraising, on “Fox News Sunday”: “One thing that is different about me is that I’m not a super PAC puppet. … A lot of the other candidates have advertisements already spreading across TV funded by their super PACs. What’s lifting us up is the small-dollar donors.” — Rep. TONY GONZALES (R-Texas) on whether DHS and Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS deserve credit for lower border-crossing numbers, on CBS’ “Face the Nation”: “They do deserve some credit for the numbers being down. But there’s a lot of reasons for that. It’s also 115 degrees in Texas right now. So a lot of people are waiting until a cooler part of the year to come over.” — Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN on reviving the Iran nuclear deal, on CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria GPS”: “We’re now in a place where we’re not talking about a nuclear agreement. We are very clearly making it known to them that they need to take actions to de-escalate, not escalate the tensions that exist in our relationship across a whole variety of fronts. We’ll look to see if they do that. Maybe we’ll have an environment where we can get back into a conversation about their nuclear program. Right now, we’re not in it.”
| | | | A message from Capital Access Alliance:   | | | TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.
| | PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN’S SUNDAY — The president has nothing on his public schedule.
VP KAMALA HARRIS’ SUNDAY — The VP has nothing on her public schedule. | | | | | | STOP SCROLLING (for just a minute!). Introducing a revamped California Playbook newsletter with an all-new team and a sharpened mission! Join Lara Korte and Dustin Gardiner as they take you on an extraordinary journey through California's political landscape. From inside the Capitol in Sacramento to the mayor’s office in Los Angeles, and from the tech hub of Silicon Valley to even further beyond, we're your front-row ticket to the action. Subscribe for access to exclusive news, buzzworthy scoops and never-before-revealed behind-the-scenes details straight from the heart of California's political arena. Don't miss out — SUBSCRIBE TODAY and stay in the know! | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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After Russian missile attacks in Odesa, Ukraine, the Odesa Transfiguration Cathedral stands badly damaged today. | Libkos/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR 1. PRESENT HISTORY: The White House said yesterday that Biden will sign a proclamation Tuesday to create the EMMETT TILL and MAMIE TILL-MOBLEY National Monument across three sites in Chicago and Mississippi, per the Chicago Sun-Times’ Lynn Sweet. The president’s move will come on what would have been Till’s 82nd birthday, honoring both the murdered 14-year-old boy and his legendary activist mother. The three sites are the South Side church where Till-Mobley showed Till’s mutilated body to the world, the courthouse where his killers went free and the river where his body was found. 2. BRUTAL DeSANTIS ACCOUNTABILITY READ: The Daily Beast’s Roger Sollenberger obtained the transcript of the Vice documentary about DeSantis’ time at Guantánamo that Showtime decided not to air. Two former detainees and a whistleblower make explosive allegations of “inhumane treatment” in the doc, with two of them “directly implicating DeSantis — at the time, a junior-level military legal adviser — in approving and overseeing brutal measures.” That includes DeSantis watching forced feedings after the U.N. had already deemed the practice to be torture. Multiple sources tell The Daily Beast that they think Showtime censored the doc for political reasons, though details are unclear. 3. STATE OF THE UNIONS: “‘This is a problem’: Biden faces looming strikes that could rock economy,” by Holly Otterbein and Zack Colman: “[B]ehind closed doors, the relationship between Biden world and a corner of Big Labor has been rockier than advertised. And it could soon get worse. Within a matter of months, or even weeks, Biden could find himself dealing with multiple major workers’ strikes … Biden aides and allies are miffed and perplexed by the [UAW’s] non-endorsement … and Democrats are bracing for a likely strike when the UAW’s contract ends in September. … [I]t is a profoundly difficult test for the president: whether to side with a constituency that’s been a bedrock throughout his career or lean on them.” 4. STAT OF THE DAY: WaPo is expected to lose about $100 million this year, NYT’s Benjamin Mullin and Katie Robertson report in a look at the newspaper’s struggles, changes and newly more involved owner JEFF BEZOS. Other fascinating nuggets from the story:
- Editorial changes are coming soon: The opinion section is working on an “experimental project” to run commentary pieces from readers across the country. And a Style section revamp, including an online redesign, is expected in September.
- MARTY BARON labeled editor roles as “analysts” or “strategists” to escape the scrutiny of Bezos, who was skeptical about adding more editors.
- Bezos has gotten more hands on this year after SALLY BUZBEE told him in January that morale was low and that FRED RYAN had made mistakes, including what the Times calls a “stultified business culture.”
- PATTY STONESIFER has had a better relationship with Buzbee, and some in the newsroom are feeling more optimistic about the Post’s direction.
| | | | A message from Capital Access Alliance:   | | | 5. HOLDING BACK: “U.S. in no hurry to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles,” by WaPo’s Karen DeYoung and Missy Ryan: “The Biden administration is holding firm, for now at least, on its refusal to send long-range Army missiles to Ukraine despite mounting pressure from U.S. lawmakers and pleas from the government in Kyiv … [D]espite what one called a growing public perception of ‘some sort of slow, gravitational pull’ toward approval, there has been no change in U.S. policy and no substantive discussion about the issue for months.” 6. PRICE-LINE NEGOTIATORS: “Drugmakers Are ‘Throwing the Kitchen Sink’ to Halt Medicare Price Negotiations,” by NYT’s Sheryl Gay Stolberg and Rebecca Robbins: Several lawsuits “make similar and overlapping claims that the drug pricing provisions are unconstitutional. They are scattered in federal courts around the country — a tactic that experts say gives the industry a better chance of obtaining conflicting rulings that will put the legal challenges on a fast track to a business-friendly Supreme Court. … In conjunction with its legal campaign, the pharmaceutical industry is waging a public relations offensive.” 7. INFLATION REDUCTION ACT IMPACT: “Small-town GOP officials are torn over Biden’s clean energy cash,” by WaPo’s Jeff Stein in Fairfield, Ohio: “Although it was drafted and passed exclusively by Democrats in Washington, the fate of the law will hinge in large part on the decisions of state and local Republican officials. … The funding is splintering a Republican Party that remains skeptical about renewable energy — and hostile to Biden.” 8. DeSANTIS ON THE TRAIL: “Ron DeSantis super PAC will host bus tour through Iowa ahead of Lincoln Dinner,” by the Des Moines Register’s Brianne Pfannenstiel: “Never Back Down is beginning to take over some event planning from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign, launching a bus tour that will take him through Chariton, Osceola and Oskaloosa ahead of Friday’s Iowa GOP Lincoln Dinner. … The bus tour appears to be an acknowledgment that DeSantis will need to spend more time on the ground.” 9. WHAT REPUBLICANS WANT: “In the GOP primary, one thing sells (merch) above all: Owning the libs,” by Kelly Garrity: “In the merchandising arms race of today, it’s not the economy, stupid. It’s Ron DeSantis’ $37.47 ‘Build the Wall’ trucker hat, Nikki Haley’s ‘Strong & Proud, Not Weak & Woke’ T-shirt or a PERRY JOHNSON ‘I identify as non-Bidenary’ sticker. Once the ‘party of new ideas,’ the culture wars are the new platform, not simply a plank.”
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | SPOTTED: Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo walking out of the same Mass at Holy Trinity Catholic Church yesterday evening as President Joe Biden. Pic, via Onur Toper TRANSITION — Kaitlin Kirshner is now comms and public affairs director at Duke Energy. She previously was senior manager of policy comms at Amazon Web Services. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) … Monica Lewinsky (5-0) … DOT’s Aaron Moore … Eric Werwa … Fritz Brogan of the Mission Group … Melissa Braid … Connor McAllister of Sen. Steve Daines’ (R-Mont.) office … Dean Aguillen of Ogilvy Government Relations … David Brock … Matt Jeanneret of the American Road and Transportation Builders Association … Mary Crane of Targeted Victory … Will Mesinger of Meraki Communications Group … POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky and Erin Banco … Judy Lichtman … FGS Global’s Craig James and Josh Gross ... Edelman’s Courtney Gray Haupt … Tracie Pough … former Justice Anthony Kennedy … former Rep. John Hall (D-N.Y.) … State’s Kenya James … Stephanie Grisham … White House’s Gabriel Barnett … Jane Rayburn of EMC Research Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
| | | | A message from Capital Access Alliance: The DCA Act’s additional flights would benefit travelers both inside and outside of DCA's artificial 1,250-mile perimeter. The bill is purely additive and would not affect any current in-perimeter service.
Claims from bill opponents that suggest otherwise are without merit and aim to mislead the public, in-perimeter communities and even Members of Congress.
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