| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
| 
Every act of accountability from the justice system has strengthened Donald Trump’s position in the Republican primary. | Charlie Riedel, File/AP Photo | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY — You may have heard of the super-secret annual gathering in northern California known as Bohemian Grove. It’s a males-only event where phones and photos are banned and guests are strictly forbidden from discussing who’s there and what was said, including whether or not the event really ends with “a ritual that involves a human effigy and the burning of a giant sacrificial owl.” The elite summer camp has a reputation for history-making. A recent report in SFGATE documenting a labor lawsuit brought by former valets against the affiliated Bohemian Club describes some of the milestones: “It is said to be where J. ROBERT OPPENHEIMER first discussed the Manhattan Project, which resulted in the dropping of two atomic bombs on Japan in World War II; RICHARD NIXON's successful 1968 election campaign was reportedly launched at the camp; and it recently made the news when it was revealed that CLARENCE THOMAS visited the club with Republican billionaire HARLAN CROW.” So what Playbookers were there this year? One tipster, who said the vibe was more Aspen Institute than Burning Man, gave us a readout of some of the media and politics folks in attendance over the weekend at the private club’s encampment among the Sonoma redwoods. One really caught our attention: House Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY. McCarthy’s office didn’t return a message about the event last night, but we understand that the speaker was heard making remarks that were bullish on DONALD TRUMP winning the GOP nomination. Not exactly Oppenheimer-level discourse, but given the pair’s recent troubles, the Trump campaign was happy to hear the readout. “President Trump and Speaker McCarthy have historically had a very good relationship,” said a Trump aide.
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Explore more possibilities with the metaverse. | | | HOW TRUMP IS WEAPONIZING SMITH AGAINST DeSANTIS — At some point soon, maybe this week or perhaps even today, special counsel JACK SMITH is expected to indict Trump for his role in the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and his attempt to overthrow the last presidential election. Most observers, including us, have been cautious in predicting the political fallout from the criminal cases engulfing Trump. But the data has been clear. Every act of accountability from the justice system has strengthened Trump’s position in the Republican primary. When the impending indictment from Manhattan DA ALVIN BRAGG started dominating the news in late March, Trump stood at 44% in an average of national polls. The Bragg indictment came on April 4. The first Smith indictment followed on June 9. By the time a federal judge clarified last week that Trump “raped” writer E. JEAN CARROLL, he sat just shy of 54% in the RealClear Politics national polling average — a 10-point climb during the spring and summer. This dynamic has in turn caused his main rivals to retreat from criticizing Trump over the criminal indictments and civil verdicts. The previous caution about the political impact of criminal accusations against Trump has been replaced by a conventional wisdom that new charges will only strengthen the frontrunner. The Trump campaign is so confident of this that its current strategy is to attack any rival — well, mostly RON DeSANTIS — for any perceived hint that they are siding with Smith over Trump. Yesterday the Trump team jumped on some quotes from a DeSantis supporter, HAL LAMBERT, buried in the last two paragraphs of an NBC News dispatch from DeSantis’s weekend donor retreat in Utah (no Bohemian Grove for him, apparently). Lambert tepidly mused about the possibility that additional Trump indictments could cause the former president to drop out of the race. Yet the stray comments elicited a furious response from the Trump team. “It’s really surprising to see them say the quiet part out loud,” Trump senior adviser JASON MILLER thundered to Playbook. “We've heard that the DeSanctimonious people, when their strategists are talking to reporters off the record or on background, have long said that if only a political meteor strikes the earth that there might be a chance or a pathway for them going forward. … “But for one of their early and key donors to go and admit that the DeSanctimonious campaign strategy is to hope and pray that the Democrats from JOE BIDEN's deep state are successful in their political persecution of President Trump, and that that is their strategy — that's not a strategy! That's a hope or a prayer. “All they do is sit around and pray that the Democrats and their witch hunt against President Trump is somehow successful, and I think Republican primary voters, when they see that, will be disgusted that DeSanctimonious and his allies are hoping for Democrats to be successful because they think it will benefit them politically. That's just not the type of courage that Republicans are looking for in a presidential candidate.” It’s hard to argue with that last part. Most GOP primary voters are not looking for a candidate with the courage to attack Trump for falsifying business records in New York (as the Bragg indictment alleges), raping Carroll (as a federal judge declared this month), violating the Espionage Act and obstructing justice (as the first Smith indictment alleges), or trying to overthrow the last election (as the next one may allege). The strange situation that DeSantis and most of Trump’s opponents find themselves in is that they, too, have embraced the Trump-stoked view that nearly any effort by a Democratic administration to pursue justice against a Republican is de facto illegitimate. In this Republican primary, siding with Smith against Trump has become a litmus test that is little different from choosing the wrong side on abortion. As one Republican strategist close to Trump put it to Playbook, “The base sees this uneven application of justice going back to the Russia probe. They’ve seen HUNTER [BIDEN] snort coke off of hookers’ asses without consequences and BLM riots that were described as peaceful protests. And now that’s how they view any of the alleged crimes stemming from Jan. 6.” More …
- Smith has obtained thousands of documents from BERNIE KERIK. (Daily Beast)
- He’s also looking at a February 2020 meeting where Trump praised U.S. election security. (CNN)
- Trump’s advantage in the delegate game is growing. (AP)
- The DeSantis campaign shakeup continues. (Bloomberg)
- And his personnel issues have been a recurring theme of his career. (Time)
Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your favorite Bohemian Grove conspiracy theories: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | McCARTHY LEANS IN ON IMPEACHMENT — Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY suggested the House may need to open an impeachment investigation of Biden in a Fox News interview last night — going considerably further than he’s previously gone on the subject. “This is rising to the level of impeachment inquiry,” McCarthy told Sean Hannity, alleging that Biden has orchestrated the “weaponization of government to benefit his family and deny Congress the ability to have the oversight.” Such a probe, he added, would unleash Republicans’ “strongest powers” to secure evidence from the White House to prove their allegations to the public. If that “strongest powers” language sounds familiar, that’s because former House Judiciary Chair JERRY NADLER (D-N.Y.) used the same argument in 2019 as House Democrats flailed in the face of Trump’s stonewalling of their various investigations and subpoenas. Citing precedent from the RICHARD NIXON impeachment inquiry — when the courts moved quickly to ensure lawmakers had access to key evidence — Nadler theorized that launching a former impeachment probe would light a fire under the courts and force them to quickly litigate inter branch disputes. Democrats, however, never fully tested that theory. McCarthy’s words come at a time when the Biden administration is signaling that they are willing to cooperate with Congress on at least some major asks. Last night, for instance, the Justice Department indicated in a letter that DAVID WEISS, the U.S. attorney overseeing the tax and gun charges against Hunter Biden, could testify on the case later this year. More from the Washington Examiner’s Ashley Oliver Meanwhile, Insider’s Mattathias Schwartz scooped new details last night on Hunter Biden’s controversial art sales — reporting that Democratic donor ELIZABETH HIRSH NAFTALI, a Biden commission appointee, was among the buyers. Plenty of unknowns remain, including whether the sale or the appointment came first. But the story reports that Hunter knew about the purchase, which is certain to fuel Republican cries of inappropriate Biden family behavior and raise questions about the White House’s past insistence that Hunter’s art buyers were walled off from him and his father. (Note that another mystery buyer bought 11 of his works for nearly $900,000.) WEEKEND WEDDING — Daniel Lippman, a Washington reporter for POLITICO and former Playbook co-author, and Sophia Narrett, an artist who shows with Kohn Gallery and Perrotin, got married Saturday at the Willard InterContinental. They held a Shabbat dinner with their families at Officina at the Wharf on Friday and had an after-party at Old Ebbitt Grill on Saturday. The couple met at a mutual friend’s birthday party. Pics, via Kyla Jeanette Photography SPOTTED: Kaitlan Collins, Robert Costa, Greta Van Susteren and John Coale, Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) and Megan Beyer, Matt Kaminski, Sam Stein and Jessica Leinwand, Ryan Lizza and Olivia Nuzzi, Tammy Haddad, Juleanna Glover and Christopher Reiter, Jamie Weinstein and Michelle Fields, Hailey Fuchs, Ben Schreckinger and Linnaea Honl-Stuenkel, Patrick Steel and Lee Satterfield, Dafna Linzer and Bart Gellman, Sofia Rose Haft and Michael Haft … … Craig and Laura Gordon, Jessica and Brandt Anderson, Nihal Krishan and Amirah Sequeira, Tim and Kiki Burger, Blain Rethmeier and Gisele Parrilla, Ben Wofford and Hayden Henderson, Samantha Dravis, Tricia McLaughlin, Jordan Colvin, Ryan Williams, Hanna Trudo, Jeff Solnet and Betsy Klein, Michael and Nolan Greenwald, Shadi Hamid, Lindsey Curnutte and Jeff Naft, Adam and Kim Kennedy, Tim Mak and Trey Herr.
| | BIDEN’S TUESDAY:
10 a.m.: The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief.
Noon: Biden will sign a proclamation creating the EMMETT TILL and MAMIE TILL-MOBLEY National Monument in Illinois and Mississippi, with VP KAMALA HARRIS speaking, in the Indian Treaty Room.
3 p.m.: Biden will speak about expanding access to mental health care in the East Room.
Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 3:30 p.m.
THE HOUSE will meet at noon and at 2 p.m. will take up several bills, including legislation that would penalize Chinese entities that manufacture or distribute opioids and a bill modernizing the FCC, with first and last votes expected at 6:30 p.m. The Rules Committee will meet at 3 p.m. to take up legislation including the Military Construction-VA spending bill.
THE SENATE will meet at 3 p.m. to take up the National Defense Authorization Act, with votes on two amendments at 5:30 p.m. | | | | | | STOP SCROLLING (for just a minute!). Introducing a revamped California Playbook newsletter with an all-new team and a sharpened mission! Join Lara Korte and Dustin Gardiner as they take you on an extraordinary journey through California's political landscape. From inside the Capitol in Sacramento to the mayor’s office in Los Angeles, and from the tech hub of Silicon Valley to even further beyond, we're your front-row ticket to the action. Subscribe for access to exclusive news, buzzworthy scoops and never-before-revealed behind-the-scenes details straight from the heart of California's political arena. Don't miss out — SUBSCRIBE TODAY and stay in the know! | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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A worker removes letters from the Twitter sign on the exterior of Twitter headquarters in San Francisco on Monday, July 24. | Justin Sullivan/Getty Images | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 2024 WATCH DEBATE TEA LEAVES — Despite his comments to the contrary, KELLYANNE CONWAY indicated on Fox News that Trump may participate in the first primary debate after all: “I think President Trump will keep everybody in suspense,” she said. “If I were you, I’d keep that center podium warm.” TOP-ED — “Donors, Don’t Fund a Trump Plurality,” by Sen. MITT ROMNEY (R-Utah) in the WSJ: “Republican megadonors and influencers — large and small — are going to have to do something they didn’t do in 2016: get candidates they support to agree to withdraw if and when their paths to the nomination are effectively closed. That decision day should be no later than, say, Feb. 26.” THE REELECT — “Biden campaign beefs up its data operation,” by WaPo’s Tyler Pager … “Note cards and shorter stairs: How Biden’s campaign is addressing his age,” by NBC’s Carol Lee, Peter Nicholas and Monica Alba CHRIS CHRISTIE’S UNUSUAL FRIENDS AND ENEMIES — “Chris Christie rips Tim Scott in New Hampshire,” by Lisa Kashinsky and Kelly Garrity in Manchester, N.H.: “The former New Jersey governor is unleashing on [TIM] SCOTT over the South Carolina senator’s refusal to blame Donald Trump for the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol … Campaigning in New Hampshire, Christie accused Scott of ‘pandering’ to Trump supporters who may look elsewhere if indictments continue to pile up against the former president.” — “Is Chris Christie Entering the Democratic Petting Zoo?” by Puck’s Peter Hamby: “Here’s a little 2024 media story guaranteed to make Republican eyes roll: I’m told that G.O.P. spoiler candidate Chris Christie will be appearing on Pod Save America this week, taping an interview for Thursday’s podcast with Crooked Media co-founder JON LOVETT.” MORE POLITICS CASH DASH — The unveiling last week of felony charges against 16 “fake electors” for Trump in Michigan has trained a spotlight on GOP congressional campaigns that accepted donations from them. TOM BARRETT, who’s running for Congress again this cycle, got $500 last summer from fake elector MARI-ANN HENRY. A representative for Barrett told Playbook that he does not plan to refund the donation. And Rep. JOHN JAMES received nearly $7,000 from five different fake electors across his 2018, 2020 and 2022 Senate and House bids — though the vast majority of that money came before the fake elector scheme even happened. In one more recent instance, James’ campaign did receive $100 last summer from fake elector KATHY BERDEN. His spokesperson did not respond to questions about whether he would give back any of the donations. JOIN THE CLUB — The Club for Growth may be stepping back from a potential pitched primary battle in the Montana Senate race: President DAVID McINTOSH told reporters yesterday that his organization hasn’t decided to back Rep. MATT ROSENDALE and that TIM SHEEHY is “impressive,” The Hill’s Al Weaver reports. While the hard-right Rosendale has been teasing a run, losing the support of both Trump and the Club could put him in a difficult spot. Notably, McIntosh also weighed in on the presidential race, saying the Club could support VIVEK RAMASWAMY or Scott in addition to Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS, per Natalie Allison. But he also said they’d support Trump, with whom the group has feuded, if he’s the nominee. THE LONG TAIL OF DOBBS — “Abortion Could Dominate New Hampshire Governor’s Race,” by The Messenger’s Stephanie Murray: “KELLY AYOTTE’s record on abortion could become a crucial issue in the race.” INDEPENDENT SINEMA — “How Kyrsten Sinema Could Run Into A Money Crunch,” by The Messenger’s Matt Holt: “A new poll shared exclusively with The Messenger finds her favorability under 50%, including with independents.” CONGRESS CULTURE WAR UPDATE — The main action in the Senate today is an effort to pass the National Defense Authorization Act by week’s end, a process that has so far moved much more smoothly than in the House, Connor O’Brien previews. Two amendment votes today will center on U.S. investments in Chinese tech and the ability of China and other rivals to buy U.S. farmland. Beyond that, Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER is trying to avoid controversial votes on abortion policy. But it remains to be seen which NDAA fights could still bubble up in the Senate, including the top-line number, Pentagon diversity efforts and nuclear subs for Australia. And in the coming months, House Republican efforts to add policy riders to appropriations bills will usher the spending process into a new era, Irie Sentner reports this morning. What’s new about the culture-war planks this year is how thoroughly they’ve spread through every corner of appropriations — and beyond just the big-ticket debates like abortion. It’s also banning discrimination against those who oppose same-sex marriage, barring funds for “eco-grief counseling,” zeroing out the National Museum of the American Latino and more. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — A cadre of veteran and national security-focused Democratic women in the House are releasing a video with VoteVets excoriating Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.) for his hold on Pentagon promotions. Reps. MIKIE SHERILL (N.J.), CHRISSY HOULAHAN (Pa.), ELISSA SLOTKIN (Mich.) and ABIGAIL SPANBERGER (Va.) warn that Tuberville’s blockade harms national security. “We’re not going to let anyone use women service members as political pawns in their culture war,” Slotkin says. Watch it here PORK ROLLS — “Republicans hoover up earmarks in House spending bills,” by Roll Call’s Peter Cohn and Herb Jackson: “House Republicans have so thoroughly stacked the earmarking deck in their favor in appropriations bills for the upcoming fiscal year that the top Democratic recipient doesn’t even appear in the top 60 among lawmakers in that chamber.”
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | JUDICIARY SQUARE IMMIGRATION FILES — The Justice Department yesterday sued Texas Gov. GREG ABBOTT and his state over their installation of a floating border barrier in the form of buoys in the Rio Grande, per The Texas Tribune’s Noah Alcala Bach. The feds say Austin didn’t get a required sign-off from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and insist that Texas remove the barrier. But Abbott told the White House in a letter yesterday that he wouldn’t back down — and that Biden’s policies were to blame for a humanitarian crisis at the border. CHEVRON DEFERENCE DEATH WATCH — “McCarthy calls on Supreme Court to ‘rein in’ administrative state in upcoming case,” by the Washington Examiner’s Kaelan Deese ONE TO WATCH — “How a Christian transgender man increased his faith by taking the fight over LGBTQ+ rights to religious schools,” by USA Today’s John Fritze and Megan Smith POLICY CORNER SUING SU? — “Trade group challenges Biden administration over Su’s Labor authority,” by Jennifer Haberkorn: “Flex, the trade group for app-based companies including DoorDash, GrubHub, Lyft and Uber, argued in a letter on Monday that any rules and regulations issued while [JULIE] SU is acting secretary don’t have political legitimacy or constitutional authority. It’s an early hint at the challenges likely to be raised to the legitimacy of Su’s tenure as she serves as an indefinite acting secretary.” NEW THIS MORNING — “The Biden administration proposes new rules to push insurers to boost mental health coverage,” AP WAR IN UKRAINE THE NEXT TRANCHE — “U.S. to send up to $400 million in military aid to Ukraine, officials say,” by AP’s Lolita Baldor and Matthew Lee: “The package includes an array of ammunition — ranging from missiles for the High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) to Stingers and Javelins.” DISASTROUS CONSEQUENCES — “Global food prices threaten to tick back up, just as Biden was getting a break,” by Meredith Lee Hill: “Russian attempts to cut off all Ukraine’s grain export routes are threatening to erase the small reprieve in sky-high grocery prices Americans experienced this year.” AMERICA AND THE WORLD BIG INVESTIGATION — “How the U.S. Drives Gun Exports and Fuels Violence Around the World,” by Bloomberg’s Michael Riley, David Kocieniewski and Eric Fan THE BRAVE NEW WORLD — “Washington Tries to Add Some Teeth to Its Cyberdefenses,” by Foreign Policy’s Rishi Iyengar: “The Biden administration unveiled a road map to thwart Russia and China in cyberspace, but experts say gaps remain.” THE ECONOMY HEADLINES BIDEN WILL LOVE — “Jobs boom at the state level,” by Axios’ Courtenay Brown: “Many states across the country are experiencing all-time lows in unemployment.” HEADLINES BIDEN WON’T LOVE — “Why the Fed Isn’t Ready to Declare Victory on Inflation,” by WSJ’s Nick Timiraos: “Some Fed policy makers and economists are concerned that the easing in inflation will be temporary.” MEDIAWATCH THE SHIFTING AUDIENCE — “Tucker Carlson’s Fox Exit Helps Boost Newsmax Ratings,” by WSJ’s Isabella Simonetti: “Conservative news channel Newsmax saw its prime-time viewership more than double in the second quarter, as it held on to a good chunk of the gains it made following the departure of TUCKER CARLSON from rival Fox News.”
| | | | HITTING YOUR INBOX AUGUST 14—CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | IN MEMORIAM — “Obamas’ personal chef drowns near family’s home on Martha’s Vineyard,” AP/Edgartown, Mass.: Tafari Campbell “was employed by the Obamas and was visiting Martha’s Vineyard. The Obamas were not present at the home at the time of the accident. … Campbell is survived by his wife and their twin boys.” MEDIA MOVES — Edith Chapin has been named SVP for news at NPR, leading the broadcaster newsroom, which she’s done on an acting basis since last fall, per NPR’s David Folkenflik. … Liz Johnstone will be the first news director for the NYT’s politics desk. She previously was managing editor for politics at NBC digital. … Nancy Vu is now an energy reporter at the Washington Examiner. She previously was a congressional reporter for POLITICO’s Congress Minutes. TRANSITIONS — Olivia Perez-Cubas will be national spokesperson for Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign. She’s taking a leave from Bullpen Strategy Group, where she’s a managing director, and is a Marco Rubio alum. … Emily Benavides has launched Benavides Strategies, and is now serving as the spokesperson for the Best of America PAC supporting North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum’s presidential campaign. She’s a Rob Portman, Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney alum. … Ziya Smallens will be chief speechwriter for New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy. He previously was speechwriter for the Senate Judiciary Committee. … … Aimee Witteman will be head of investment at Rewiring America. She most recently was acting executive director for Invest in Our Future and is a Biden DOE alum. … Hannah Flom is now chief content strategist at the State Department. She previously was senior adviser for digital strategy at the EPA. … Rachel Gorsky Bombach is now a policy adviser at Kasowitz Benson Torres. She previously was legislative director for Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), and is an Obama NSC alum. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Liz McCaman Taylor, senior federal policy counsel at the Center for Reproductive Rights, and Chris Taylor, a senior data analyst at Communities in Schools, recently welcomed Sullivan Leroy Taylor. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) … Alex Nguyen of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s office ... Andrew Feldman of Feldman Strategies … Kirsten Sutton … USAID’s Alison Harding … Christine Quinn of Win … Sarah Benzing … Fox News’ Katy Ricalde … Daily Mail’s Kelly Laco … TLC Political’s Christian Hulen ... Bloomberg’s Mike Nizza … The Atlantic’s Anne Applebaum and Caroline Black Fanning … Liz Brown of the Children’s Hospital Association … Clio Grillakis … Robert Zoellick (7-0) ... Brad Karp … Amy Holmes ... Ducks Unlimited’s Parker Williams … Rebecca Gale … POLITICO’s Maren Rincon and Taylor Cottle … WSJ’s Elise Dean … NBC’s Jesselyn Cook … Ella Gunn … Katie Martin … Alex Pfeiffer … Annie Lentz of Rep. Annie Kuster’s (D-N.H.) office … Sydney Gart Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
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