| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
|  President Joe Biden is in Finland today, meeting with Nordic leaders after a NATO trip with several significant victories. | Pavel Golovkin/AP Photo | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | President JOE BIDEN is having a good week. A really good week, actually. ON THE ECONOMY: Yesterday, the latest consumer price index numbers revealed inflation cooling to 3% — its lowest rate since March 2021. In Washington and on Wall Street, that’s spurring hopes that the economy may be finally turning the corner. (Though the Fed is likely to raise interest rates again later this month, the new CPI numbers “really fortify the argument around July’s hike being the last of this campaign,” DAVID WILCOX, senior economist at Bloomberg Economics, told the WSJ.) In Biden world, it’s the latest in a “string of economic developments that’s bolstered the administration’s confidence it can set the U.S. on a glide path without first plunging it into a downturn,” our colleague Adam Cancryn reports. But, but, but: Top Biden advisers are reluctant to be seen as taking a full victory lap. Even as they hit the road touting “Bidenomics,” they have their eyes to three big potential storms on the horizon: (1) the mass resumption of student loan payments coming this fall; (2) a likely government shutdown later this year; and (3) the possibility that additional interest rate hikes could still push the economy into a downturn. On the other hand, JUSTIN WOLFERS, an economist at the University of Michigan, put it this way to Adam: “The story of almost every recession in modern American history is something bad happened, and it was something bad we didn’t see coming. What could happen between now and 2024? A shit-ton of bad things. You know what else could happen? Good things.” ON NATIONAL SECURITY: Biden is in Finland today, meeting with Nordic leaders after a NATO trip with “undeniable wins,” our colleagues Alexander Ward and Jonathan Lemire write: (1) Turkey ended its blockade of Sweden joining the alliance, and (2) Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, initially apoplectic about NATO’s reluctance to invite Ukraine to join the bloc, ultimately hailed the summit as a “significant security victory.” But, but, but: Alex and Jonathan note that “how history judges the Vilnius summit depends on some circumstances outside Biden’s control,” including: (1) the final approvals of Sweden’s entrance into NATO; and (2) whether Congress approves a sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey. Any hiccups, they write, “could yet scuttle the handshake agreement.” ON THE CAMPAIGN: And there may be a cherry on top coming over the next couple of days for the president. This Saturday is the deadline to report Q2 fundraising numbers to the FEC. While Biden’s numbers have been kept close hold, high-level insiders in Biden world whom we’ve talked to say they feel confident in how well Biden’s fundraising has shaken out. Is that just spin? Maybe. If they were super confident about their numbers, it is odd that they wouldn’t have released them already. Not much has been said publicly about Biden’s haul since the president announced his reelection in April. There were no splashy “first 24 hours” or “first week” numbers. What to watch: The insiders tell Playbook that the numbers to look out for when the Biden camp releases them are not just his overall haul, but his cash on hand and small-dollar donations. (All three figures have been described to us as “strong.”) Multiple aides, allies and officials told Playbook that what is especially encouraging about the cash-on-hand number is how it speaks to the reality that Biden, facing nominal primary opposition, is raising money for the general election, while Republican candidates have to spend money on a contested primary — and even before that, have to shell out money to try and win over enough individual contributors to get on the primary debate stage. ON THE BORDER: Notable numbers here in a scoop by CBS News’ Camilo Montoya-Galvez: “Migrant crossings along U.S.-Mexico border plummeted in June amid stricter asylum rules”: “The last time Border Patrol apprehensions along the U.S.-Mexico border were lower was in February 2021, President Biden's first full month in the White House.” Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from The Coalition to Protect America's Regional Airports: DCA’s slot and perimeter rules ensure access to Washington for regional airports and the smaller communities they serve. Delta-backed efforts to change the rules threaten to reduce or eliminate service to Washington for these communities and undermine local connectivity, jobs, and economic development in the process. Protect regional airports, protect small communities. Learn more at www.protectregionalairports.com. | | | BREAKING OVERNIGHT — “Hollywood Actors Set to Join Writers on Strike After Contract Expires,” by WSJ’s Joe Flint NDAA UPDATE — Hopes remain alive that the House could pass the annual Pentagon policy bill this week after the Rules Committee sent a final package of 80 amendments to the floor early this morning, including some dealing with abortion access, transgender issues, diversity initiatives and Ukraine aid. “Republicans are gambling that allowing a bunch of contentious partisan amendments on the floor will keep conservatives in check, but will ultimately get voted down so Dems won't oppose the bill,” our Connor O’Brien writes. The Senate is expected to take up its version of the bill next week. Related read: “G.O.P.’s Far Right Seeks to Use Defense Bill to Defund Ukraine War Effort,” by NYT’s Karoun Demirjian JUST POSTED — “Hakeem Jeffries Projects Calm as Tests Await in Post-Pelosi Era,” by Bloomberg’s Jonathan Tamari: “Six months into his tenure, interviews with more than a dozen House Democrats depict [Minority Leader HAKEEM] JEFFRIES not as a leader bending the caucus to his will, but as one seeking threads of consensus. In conversations across the party’s ideological, geographical and demographic spectrum, the word ‘listener’ came up nearly every time.” NEWS YOU CAN USE — WSJ: “Hack Your Workweek to Leave Early on Summer Fridays” HARRIS EYES HISTORY — VP KAMALA HARRIS tied the record for casting the most tie-breaking votes by a vice president yesterday. Per the AP: “The vote, her 31st, advanced the nomination of KALPANA KOTAGAL to the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. The only other vice president to cast so many was JOHN C. CALHOUN, who served as vice president from 1825 to 1832.” BORN AGAIN — RON DeSANTIS is on the hunt for true believers in Iowa. The Florida governor and his presidential campaign have been “feverishly working the religious circuit” in Iowa as he tries to shore up support in the early nominating state, Sally Goldenberg reports. The effort will come to a head this weekend as DeSantis headlines an address to The Family Leader, a Christian organization that Trump spurned as the former president barnstorms through the early campaign circuit. Stamp of approval: “I really think America wants to turn the page,” BOB VANDER PLAATS, CEO of The Family Leader, said in an interview. “If you’re looking for an alternative to Trump, I think Gov. DeSantis is the frontrunner right now.” Related read: “Tim Scott Hopes to Swing Iowa Evangelical Voters With New Ad,” by Bloomberg’s Christian Hall
| | | | A message from The Coalition to Protect America's Regional Airports:   Here’s what the Delta-backed group pushing to change the slot and perimeter rules isn’t talking about – the proposed changes will threaten jobs and economic growth at regional airports. Learn more at www.protectregionalairports.com. | | | | | BIDEN’S THURSDAY (all times Eastern): The president began a bilateral meeting with Finland President SAULI NIINISTÖ at 6 a.m.
7:15 a.m.: Biden will participate in the U.S.-Nordic Leaders' Summit.
10:30 a.m.: Biden will hold a joint news conference with Niinistö.
12:40 p.m.: Biden will depart Helsinki, Finland, to return to the White House, where he is scheduled to arrive at 9:35 p.m.
HARRIS’ THURSDAY:
1:20 p.m.: The VP will depart D.C. en route to New York City.
5:30 p.m.: Harris will deliver remarks at a campaign reception.
7:05 p.m.: Harris will depart NYC to return to D.C.
THE SENATE will meet at 10 a.m. to resume consideration of various nominations.
THE HOUSE will meet at 10 a.m. FTC Chair LINA KHAN will testify before the House Judiciary Committee at 10 a.m. FEMA Administrator DEANNE CRISWELL will testify before a House Homeland Security subcommittee at 10 a.m. Climate envoy JOHN KERRY will testify before a House Foreign Affairs subcommittee at 10 a.m. | | | | | | STOP SCROLLING (for just a minute!). Introducing a revamped California Playbook newsletter with an all-new team and a sharpened mission! Join Lara Korte and Dustin Gardiner as they take you on an extraordinary journey through California's political landscape. From inside the Capitol in Sacramento to the mayor’s office in Los Angeles, and from the tech hub of Silicon Valley to even further beyond, we're your front-row ticket to the action. Subscribe for access to exclusive news, buzzworthy scoops and never-before-revealed behind-the-scenes details straight from the heart of California's political arena. Don't miss out — SUBSCRIBE TODAY and stay in the know! | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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A small tractor clears water from a business as flood waters block a street, Wednesday, July 12, 2023, in Barre, Vt. | Charles Krupa/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 2024 WATCH UP FOR DEBATE — “Chris Christie says he has 40,000 donors, clearing a barrier to qualify for GOP debate,” by Andrew Zhang: “In addition to meeting the donor requirement, Christie must also get at least 1 percent support in three qualifying polls. He has already met that mark in one survey, reaching 3 percent support in a poll released on Wednesday from Morning Consult.” The rest of the Morning Consult results: Trump (56%), RON DeSANTIS (17%), VIVEK RAMASWAMY (8%), MIKE PENCE (7%), NIKKI HALEY (3%), TIM SCOTT (3%) and ASA HUTCHINSON (1%). GREAT SCOTT? — With DeSantis’ campaign struggling to find its footing amid the crowded primary field, some big-time donors are turning their attention to some other candidates as they place their bets against Trump. “Billionaire businessman RONALD LAUDER, the Estée Lauder makeup heir who supported Trump in 2020, recently flew to South Carolina to meet with Scott, the state’s junior senator and longshot presidential candidate,” Sally Goldenberg and Natalie Allison report this morning. By the numbers: Scott brought in $6.1 million in the second quarter, Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser reports, bringing his total cash on hand to $21 million. The Scott campaign also claimed 145,000 donations from 53,000 unique donors nationwide — meeting the threshold to qualify for the first GOP debate. Separately, the Scott-aligned Super PAC known as TIM PAC raised $19 million in Q2, with over $15 million cash on hand at the end of June. MORE POLITICS THE FLORIDA PROJECT — Senate Democrats already know who they want to run against Sen. RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) next year. But the message hasn’t gotten through to Florida Democrats, our colleagues Holly Otterbein and Gary Fineout report. Schumer and the top Democratic leaders want former Rep. DEBBIE MUCARSEL-POWELL to get into the race, but Navy veteran PHIL EHR is flirting with a run, too. It’s all setting up for a multicandidate, costly primary that would drain the eventual nominee of resources for a seat that Democrats were already going to be fighting an uphill battle, but one of few that they viewed as a potential flip opportunity. WHAT JAIME HARRISON IS READING — “G.O.P. Led in Midterm Turnout, a Red Flag for Democrats in 2024,” by NYT’s Reid Epstein and Ruth Igielnik WHAT SUZAN DelBENE IS READING — “The US House majority is in play next year after a weak GOP midterm showing and recent court ruling,” by AP’s Jonathan J. Cooper
| | | | A message from The Coalition to Protect America's Regional Airports:   Local communities depend on access to D.C. Protect regional airports, protect small communities. Learn more at www.protectregionalairports.com. | | | CONGRESS A TALE OF TWO IMPEACHMENT MANAGERS — Reps. ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.) and JAMIE RASKIN (D-Md.) have burnished their reputations as ardent anti-Trump forces in the House. Both served as managers during the Trump impeachment saga, and neither has shied away from decrying the former president at every chance they get. Yet, their political careers have spun off in very different ways — a result of their “vastly different styles,” Nicholas Wu writes. Schiff has leaned into his role as a foil to Republicans, while Raskin tries to carry on a sense of bipartisanship. The difference in views of the two Dems is perfectly summed up by Rep. NANCY MACE: The South Carolina Republican, who serves with Raskin on Oversight, walked up to him Tuesday evening and lightheartedly asked: “Why aren’t you running for Senate? Are you serious?” Last month, she voted to censure Schiff on the House floor. IN THE DARK — Hill Republicans are growing increasingly frustrated with the Biden administration’s unwillingness to share information about what led to a leave of absence and an FBI investigation of America’s top Iran envoy. “Diplomatic Security officials have been investigating whether [ROB] MALLEY should be allowed to handle classified information,” Betsy Woodruff Swan and Nahal Toosi report. “Now the conflict is straining the administration’s relationships with Hill Republicans, just as Biden’s team seeks a new way to impose restraints on Iran’s nuclear program.” NIGHT OF THE HUNTER — “IRS whistleblowers to testify about alleged meddling in Hunter Biden case at House hearing,” by NBC’s Zoë Richards: “The public hearing, scheduled for July 19, is expected to focus on testimony from GARY SHAPLEY, a former IRS criminal investigator, and a second, unnamed IRS criminal investigator, who possess "critical information" related to the committee's probe into the Biden family, the panel said in its announcement.” WORTH A TRY? — “Democrats Try a Novel Tactic to Revive the Equal Rights Amendment,” by NYT’s Annie Karni: “Senator KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND of New York and Representative CORI BUSH of Missouri are set to introduce a joint resolution on Thursday stating that the measure has already been ratified and is enforceable as the 28th Amendment to the Constitution.” FOR THE RECORD — “Ilhan Omar Says ‘No Way in Hell’ Will She Attend Israeli President Speech to Congress,” by The Messenger’s Stephen Neukam TRUMP CARDS THAT OTHER WOMAN FROM MICHIGAN — Michigan Secretary of State JOCELYN BENSON last month met with federal prosecutors investigating Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election, CNN’s Zachary Cohen reports. The meeting lasted “for several hours,” and comes “after her office complied with a subpoena from [special counsel JACK] SMITH late last year, turning over a broad swath of documents that included communications between Michigan election officials, former Trump lawyers and individuals working for the former president’s campaign.” TRICKY TIGHTROPE — “DOJ juggles prosecuting Trump with its duty to safeguard the office of the presidency,” by Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein Related read: “Trump lashes out after Justice Department no longer says presidency shields him from defamation suit,” by AP’s Larry Neumeister JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH THROW AWAY THE KEY? — “Justice Department to challenge length of prison sentences for Rhodes and other Oath Keepers,” by AP’s Michael Kunzelman and Alanna Durkin Richer AMERICA AND THE WORLD RALEIGH-ING THE TROOPS — “Thom Tillis’ campaign to get Republicans to stop worrying and love NATO,” by Alex Ward in Vilnius, Lithuania: “[North Carolina GOP Sen. THOM] TILLIS lives and breathes the foreign policy tightrope Republicans (and some Democrats) walk these days: Any expression of internationalism must come with a rejoinder about how it will benefit everyday Americans and not overextend Washington’s resources.” Related reads: “Biden Braces NATO for Long Conflict With Russia, Making Cold War Parallel,” by NYT’s David Sanger and Zolan Kanno-Youngs … “Despite Successes at NATO Summit, Divisions Remain,” by NYT’s Steven Erlanger THE NEW CLIMATE REALITY — “Floods, fires and deadly heat are the alarm bells of a planet on the brink,” by WaPo’s Sarah Kaplan MEDIAWATCH FOX IN THE DOGHOUSE — “Arizona Man Cited in Conspiracy Theories Sues Fox News for Defamation,” by NYT’s Alan Feuer and Jeremy Peters SAD NEWS — “Three Pulitzer-winning cartoonists let go in one shocking day,” by WaPo’s Michael Cavna
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Marjorie Taylor Greene says she’s enjoying life as a “free agent” after her recent spat with the House Freedom Caucus. Barack and Michelle Obama each received Emmy nominations. Mitt Romney is a disciple of Logan Roy. Tom Cruise popped into a D.C. theater for a showing of the new “Mission: Impossible.” PLAYBOOK SPORTS BLINK — The Bad News Babes beat the members’ team at the 15th annual Congressional Women’s Softball game last night, 15-9. After the Congress team’s surprising upset last year, the press team hurtled out to an emphatic 12-0 lead early in the game. Reps. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) and Lucy McBath (D-Ga.) walked the sidelines to hype up the crowd in support of the congressional team. The event was broadcast live by PBS for the first time, featuring commentary from CNN’s Dana Bash and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), and raised money for the Young Survival Coalition, a nonprofit that aids breast cancer patients aged 40 and under. At the event’s afterparty, Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) and CNN’s Mikayla Bouchard were named MVPs of their respective teams while members and press danced together, enjoying margaritas, sliders and tacos. Notable moment: A small group of climate change demonstrators disrupted the game when they walked out onto the field. The activists, wearing T-shirts that read “End Fossil Fuels,” held hands in a circle and yelled protest chants before they were eventually ushered off by Capitol Police — but not before members, including Reps. Nanette Barragán (D-Calif.) and Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) spoke to the group and gestured for them to leave. Pic … Another pic Overheard at the afterparty: “You know we have arrived as a Capitol Hill institution because we had protesters this year," said Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.). SPOTTED: Second gentleman Doug Emhoff, Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, Speaker Kevin McCarthy, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), Reps. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.), Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.), Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) and Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.), Irish Ambassador Geraldine Byrne Nason and Donna Edwards. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED on Tuesday night at a dinner co-hosted by POLITICO CEO Goli Sheikholeslami and Invariant CEO Heather Podesta at the new Philippe Chow restaurant, where heads of D.C. offices were served Peking duck and political analysis from Eugene and Jonathan Martin: Maryam Mujica, Robert Hoffman, Heather Kennedy, Chandler Morse, Tom Gannon, Karen Knutson, and Invariant’s Nicole Venable and Carolyn Coda. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The Clinton Foundation is announcing its Clinton Global Initiative 2023 program, which will take place on Sept. 18 and 19 in New York City. This year’s program follows the relaunch of the CGI last year and as the Clintons have been ramping up their work with multiple events across five continents leading up to the CGI this year. Among the planned participants: José Andrés, Orlando Bloom, Albert Bourla, Jesper Brodin, Matt Damon, Tony Elumelu, Ilan Goldfajn, Filippo Grandi, Ashley Judd, Karlie Kloss, Lorenzo Lewis, Cindy McCain, Ai-jen Poo, Catherine Russell, Leah Thomas and Ai Wei Wei. — Heather Riley and Chris Vlasto are launching Haven Strategies, a new strategic comms and crisis management firm. Both are ABC News alums; Riley most recently was executive producer of political programming, and Vlasto ran the investigative unit and served as executive producer of “Good Morning America.” Notably, one of their first clients is the RNC, which has retained the firm for their primary debates. WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Samar Ahmad is now deputy press secretary for the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy. She most recently was scheduler and comms assistant for the Council on Environmental Quality. TRANSITIONS — Lexi Hamel is now press secretary for Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho). She most recently was press assistant/legislative correspondent for Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Utah). … Charlotte Bureau is now scheduler for Rep. William Timmons (R-S.C.). She most recently was scheduler for Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.). … Bill Monahan will be senior director of policy at Foreign Policy for America. He previously was counsel and policy director for foreign policy and national security for Senate Armed Services Committee Dems. … … Melis Tusiray and Anne Clawson are launching Cascade Strategies, a woman- and minority-owned advisory firm. Tusiray previously was director of operations for Epic Magazine at Vox Media. Clawson most recently was VP for policy and regulatory affairs at the National Alliance of Forest Owners. WEDDING — Guneev Sharma, senior manager of government relations at the National Park Foundation, and Emma Carlson, senior analyst at the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials, got married yesterday at Maroon Bells in Colorado. The two met in undergrad at Hendrix College in Arkansas. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) and Chris Deluzio (D-Pa.) … U.S. Ambassador to Brazil Elizabeth Bagley … POLITICO’s Natalie Allison, Joe Spector and Uyen Hoang … WaPo’s Josh Dawsey, Devlin Barrett and Michelle Gaps … Joe Lockhart … Tim Phillips … Anne Schroeder … Will Dempster … Microsoft’s Kate Frischmann … Amanda Hunter of the Barbara Lee Family Foundation … Vice News’ Todd Zwillich … Jen Howard … Alex Vogel … Zaina Javaid … Punchbowl’s Max Cohen … Julie Eddy Rokala of Cassidy & Associates … Patricia Brooks … Casey Katims … Celia Fischer … former Rep. Rob Bishop (R-Utah) … Heather Larrison … José Andrés … Kevin Norton of Delve LLC … Microsoft’s Kate Frischmann Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine. Corrections: Yesterday’s Playbook incorrectly described the audience for a statement by Gen. David Berger and incorrectly described whether Gen. C.Q. Brown’s nomination as Joint Chiefs chair is subject to a hold.
| | | | A message from The Coalition to Protect America's Regional Airports: Travelers looking for flights to and from the D.C. area benefit from competition, choice, and connectivity. DCA works with nearby IAD and BWI to offer short-haul regional flights, longer-haul service, and international flights. As a result, the cost of flying in the D.C. area compares to the cost of flying in America’s biggest cities, while D.C. area travelers have more access to low-cost carriers than flyers in most places across the country. Importantly, D.C. area travelers enjoy non-stop service to twice as many communities within a 1,250 radius than travelers in coastal hubs like Seattle and Boston. Protecting the DCA slot and perimeter rules is critical to ensuring D.C. area travelers maintain convenient, affordable, safe access to destinations across the country and around the world. Learn more at www.protectregionalairports.com. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
