| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | MORNING SHOWDOWN — “Trump faces reckoning as D.C. judge mulls gag order,” by Kyle Cheney Q3 CASH-ON-HAND LEADERBOARD — JOE BIDEN $24,785,201 … DONALD TRUMP $24,535,602 … RON DeSANTIS $11,160,604 … ROBERT KENNEDY JR. $8,713,134 … NIKKI HALEY $8,240,333 … VIVEK RAMASWAMY $7,444,499 … PERRY JOHNSON $5,762,284 … TIM SCOTT $4,597,516 … CHRIS CHRISTIE $3,782,647 … DOUG BURGUM $3,411,365 … MIKE PENCE $3,356,996 (h/t Rob Pyers)
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Rep. Jim Jordan speaks with reporters at the U.S. Capitol, Oct. 4, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | BULLY FOR YOU — Could Rep. JIM JORDAN’s strategy of siccing the populist right on Republican colleagues who oppose him for House speaker backfire? Olivia Beavers scooped last night that a cadre of GOP lawmakers firmly opposed to the Ohioan are “vowing he'll have a challenger” for Tuesday’s floor vote. “There will be an alternative for the rational part of the Republican conference,” one of the plotters said. It’s a callback to the January floor fight that the hard right waged against then-speaker-hopeful KEVIN McCARTHY. Holdouts flocked to Rep. ANDY BIGGS (R-Ariz.), then to Jordan, and then to Rep. BYRON DONALDS (R-Fla.) before finally getting ground down by McCarthy after more than a dozen votes. “While they have not yet nailed down a specific name,” Olivia writes, “they believe the person they ultimately land on will not only be able block Jordan from the speakership, but also give cover to those who want to vote against him.” For a hint of what this human lightning rod will be up against, check out the email Axios’ Juliegrace Brufke shared last night showing how Sean Hannity is reportedly using the power of his primetime Fox News show to bring Jordan opponents into line. At least one Jordan backer is condemning the pressure campaign: “That is the dumbest way to support Jordan,” Rep. DAN CRENSHAW (R-Texas) said on CNN last night. “As somebody who wants Jim Jordan, the dumbest thing you can do is to continue pissing off those people and entrench them.”
|  Smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike in the Gaza Strip, as seen from southern Israel, on Oct. 15, 2023. | Ariel Schalit/AP | BIDEN TO ISRAEL? — The Israel-Hamas war continues to reverberate through Washington and a number of developments have scrambled the politics of the issue at the White House, in Congress, and out on the campaign trail.
| | | | A message from Business Roundtable: America’s status as the global leader in innovation is at risk. Key tax incentives for investment in the U.S. are being phased out while other countries double down on domestic investment. Unless Congress fully reverses these tax increases on U.S. job creators, American businesses and workers will be at a competitive disadvantage. Congress, it’s time to support American jobs and innovation. Restore essential business tax incentives. Learn more. | | | At the White House … The president is “weighing” a trip to Israel, as soon as this week, Alex Ward and Jonathan Lemire report. However, officials “stress a trip might not happen any time soon, or at all, depending on the security situation in Israel and the state of a war that is quickly spiraling out of control.” Biden’s public statements since the Hamas attack on 10/7, many of which he reiterated in an interview with 60 Minutes that aired last night, have been widely praised in Israel. NYT’s Roger Cohen included a sobering anecdote in a piece about survivors of the Hamas massacre at the Tribe of Nova music festival: A married couple who survived the attack said they were considering moving to the U.S. after hearing Biden speak in support of Israel. “After Biden’s speech, we can’t even look at [BENJAMIN] NETANYAHU,” survivor BAR MATZNER told Cohen. In Israel, a right-wing TV anchor apologized for his past criticisms of Biden, while in the United States the right is blaming Biden for the Hamas attack, an accusation that is not taken seriously in Israel. There are three crass political trends Democratic strategists are watching as wars in Ukraine and the Middle East crowd out other issues:
- Is the international praise for Biden’s solidarity with a close democratic ally rewarded by Americans? There was some speculation that Biden’s support for Ukraine as it faced down Russian aggression could produce a rally-around-the-flag effect in America. It never really happened.
- Does Biden’s unwavering support for Israel halt the anti-Israel drift in the Democratic Party? Some initial polling shows that it has, with more Democratic voters expressing sympathy for Israel than before the terrorist attacks. Will it be sustained through the coming Israeli ground war in Gaza?
- Does Biden’s staunchly pro-Israel stance change the contours of the 2024 race?
In Congress … The speaker’s race was an embarrassment before 10/7. Now, with the administration ready to detail its Israel aid funding request and Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER saying he will move it quickly without waiting for the House, the GOP civil war in the lower chamber will increasingly be seen as a national security crisis. The House is also where the Democratic Party’s divide over policy towards Israel will be on display. Yes, that involves the Squad: Rep. RASHIDA TLAIB (D-Mich.) excoriated Biden Friday for having “not expressed one bit of empathy for the millions of Palestinian civilians facing brutal airstrikes and the threat of a ground invasion of Gaza that would intensify this humanitarian crisis,” and Rep. ILHAN OMAR (D-Minn.) yesterday retweeted a list of alleged Israeli war crimes committed since 10/7. But there are signs a larger group on the left could soon get more vocal. Rep. MARK POCAN (D-Wis.), a former Congressional Progressive Caucus co-chair, had this to say last night as reports mounted of a humanitarian crisis in Gaza: “Palestinian deaths now twice Israeli. Israel should stop overly broad attacks & focus only on Hamas. Enough.” In the GOP presidential primary … The Hamas attacks have exposed a new foreign policy rift between DeSantis and Haley over how to view the difference between Palestinian civilians and Hamas, as the NYT notes today. “If you look at how they behave, not all of them are Hamas, but they are all antisemitic. None of them believe in Israel’s right to exist,” DeSantis said on Saturday. “The Arab states should be taking them. If you have refugees, you don’t fly people in and take them into the United States of America.” Haley responded on CNN. “America has always been sympathetic to the fact that you can separate civilians from terrorists,” she said. The bigger primary debate may come if the conflict escalates. Trump was a firmly pro-Israel president, but his comments on Thursday criticizing Israeli leaders while noting that Hezbollah is “very smart” caused outrage. His instinctual isolationism and firm belief that there are few causes abroad that are worth sacrificing American blood or treasure could be more seriously tested. Yes, Republicans are more united in their support of Israel than Democrats. But how high a price would Trump be willing to pay to continue that support indefinitely? Not that long ago it would have been unthinkable that Republicans would reject as too expensive ongoing aid for Ukraine to repel a Russian invasion. Related reads: “Ceasefire plans stall as Israel intensifies strikes on Gaza,” Reuters … “Gaza’s crowded hospitals near breaking point as Israeli ground invasion looms,” AP … “US Pushes to Contain Israel-Hamas War, Warns Iran About Escalation,” Bloomberg … “Ex-ambassador named U.S. special envoy for Middle East Humanitarian Issues,” by Kelly Garrity Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. THE WEEK — Tomorrow: House holds speaker vote. NCAA President CHARLIE BAKER testifies before Senate Judiciary Committee on college athlete compensation. MICHAEL COHEN testifies in Trump Organization civil fraud trial in New York. … Wednesday: Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds confirmation hearing for JACK LEW as ambassador to Israel. Virginia Gov. GLENN YOUNGKIN holds “Red Vest Retreat” for GOP megadonors in Virginia Beach. … Thursday: Fed Chair JAY POWELL speaks at the Economic Club of New York. Q3 campaign finance deadline for parties and PACs. … Friday: Biden hosts European Commission President URSULA VON DER LEYEN and European Council President CHARLES MICHEL at the White House, then attends D.C. fundraiser and departs for Rehoboth Beach, Del.
| | | | A message from Business Roundtable:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate will meet at 3 p.m. to take up JENNIFER HALL’s judicial nomination. The House will meet at 6 p.m. 3 things to watch …
- The Senate returns to work after an especially eventful recess week. Expect to hear firm words of support for Israel from both party leaders on the floor this evening, particularly with Schumer returning directly from a bipartisan codel to Tel Aviv. Besides a bipartisan resolution condemning the 10/7 attack, look for action on stalled Middle East diplomatic nominations this week, starting with Lew’s Wednesday confirmation hearing.
- Beyond warm words, Israel will soon be in need of hard money from the U.S. Top House leaders met Friday at the White House to discuss plans for a supplemental funding request, which is expected to land on the Hill sometime this week. At issue is not only the topline amount, but also whether the administration signals that it wants any Israel funding packaged with Ukraine aid.
- The House may not have a speaker, but it sure has a poster (h/t Ursula Persano): It’s Rep. MIKE COLLINS (R-Ga.), who has emerged as the meme king of the GOP leadership morass. Last week brought us this chestnut: “We should just have a lottery. If you lose, you have to be speaker.” We can only imagine what he’ll have to work with this week.
At the White House Biden will travel to Pueblo, Colo., where he’ll tour CS Wind and deliver remarks at 3:45 p.m. Eastern time, before returning to the White House. VP KAMALA HARRIS has nothing on her public schedule. On the trail Trump is in Iowa, holding an event in Adel and then a rally in Clive. Scott will speak at Georgetown’s Institute of Politics and Public Service at the McCourt School of Public Policy, including a conversation with AP’s Meg Kinnard and a Q&A with college students in early-voting states.
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Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy speaks at an event in Nashua, New Hampshire on Oct. 13, 2023. | Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images | CASH DASH — We’re starting to get a fuller picture of the financial state of the GOP presidential primary field, as third-quarter FEC reports flow in. VIVEK RAMASWAMY raised $6.4 million from donors and another $1 million from himself, ending the quarter with $4.2 million on hand, Adam Wren reports. His fundraising picked up from the previous quarter, and he actually attracted more money from small-dollar donors than Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS did as Ramaswamy’s grassroots appeal grew. DeSantis’ own filing shows that he took in about $11 million but also spent that much, plus another $1 million outstanding in invoices his campaign needs to pay, Sally Goldenberg and Jessica Piper report. That included a lot of spending on private jets to Iowa. As the quarter wore on, the campaign significantly reduced its burn rate, trying to reassure donors. And some big-dollar donors did increase their giving toward the end of the quarter. Scott’s campaign raised $4.6 million but is flying through money, its filing revealed. And the big picture is that nobody’s even coming close to Trump’s fundraising numbers, Meridith McGraw and Jessica report. Part of the insight and intrigue of political donations is not just who’s getting money but who’s giving it. Bloomberg’s Bill Allison rounds up some of the notable names thus far, including Arizona Diamondbacks owner KEN KENDRICK and JAMES ALLEN for DeSantis; STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER, Arizona Cardinals owner MICHAEL BIDWELL and SETH KLARMAN for CHRIS CHRISTIE; and SEEMA VERMA, ANDREW PUZDER and HALEY BARBOUR for MIKE PENCE. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Trump’s controversial comments criticizing Netanyahu and calling Hezbollah “very smart” are now hitting the presidential campaign airwaves: Tell It Like It Is, the super PAC affiliated with Christie, is going up with a new web ad blasting Trump on the issue. “Only a fool would make those kind of comments,” the ad features Christie saying on CNN. The minute-long spot is backed by a six-figure buy to start. Watch it here More top reads:
MORE POLITICS FEC FILING FRENZY — A few notable House and Senate campaign fundraising reports you should be aware of yesterday: Rep. BARBARA LEE’s (D-Calif.) Senate campaign spent more than the $1.05 million it raised. … Rep. ANDY KIM (D-N.J.) pulled in $1.2 million, outstripping Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) — whom he’s primarying — even though he jumped into the race near the end of the quarter, Ally Mutnick and Jessica Piper report. … Rep. GEORGE SANTOS (R-N.Y.) is struggling, having “issued more money in refunds than he took in from donors last quarter,” Jessica reports. He raised a meager $1,704. … And Sens. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) and KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.) raised only a comparative trickle of cash, Ally reports, “raising questions about their political futures.” KARI LAKE MAKES NICE — “Kari Lake locks down a key GOP establishment endorsement,” by Ally: “Sen. JOHN BARRASSO (R-Wyo.), the chair of the Senate Republican Conference, endorsed her bid on Monday for Arizona’s Senate seat — the latest sign that the party’s leaders are warming to her candidacy.” PLAYING THE LONG GAME — “With actions on drug laws, mental health and labor, Newsom moves toward center in second term,” by the L.A. Times’ Laurel Rosenhall and Taryn Luna in Sacramento: “The totality of his actions this year could help [Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM] refute a perception that he’s a wacky liberal from California in a future pitch to voters across the nation.” THE WHITE HOUSE
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Joe Biden speaks during the Human Rights Campaign National Dinner on Oct. 14, 2023 in Washington. | Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images | THE SALES PITCH STRUGGLE — As Democrats continue to fret that Biden’s achievements in office aren’t breaking through with ordinary Americans, the president will hit the road today to tout clean energy and manufacturing investments in Pueblo, Colo. Yes, that’s the surprise swing district represented by GOP Rep. LAUREN BOEBERT. Biden plans to pitch the impact of Bidenomics and the Inflation Reduction Act, The Denver Post’s Lauren Pennington previews. The law is estimated to have already created 3,500 jobs in Colorado. But if his tour of the CS Wind factory will showcase his agenda in action, Pueblo neatly encapsulates Dems’ challenge in making it tangible: Just last week, The American Prospect’s Chase Woodruff penned a long dispatch about how the city reinventing itself as a major renewable energy/transportation hub “often seems to have little to show for it here at home.” Related read: “Climate Advocacy Group Plans to Spend $80 Million on Ads to Aid Biden,” by NYT’s Reid Epstein
| | | | A message from Business Roundtable:   | | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD BIG SHIFT FOR EUROPE — “Polish opposition leader Tusk declares win after exit poll shows ruling conservatives lose majority,” by AP’s Monika Scislowska and Vanessa Gera in Warsaw: “It appeared that voters were mobilized like never before, voting in even greater numbers than when the nation ousted the communist authorities in 1989.” WAR IN UKRAINE GATHERING STEAM — “Team Biden looks for creative ways to help Ukraine,” by Axios’ Hans Nichols: “In Luxembourg this week, Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN plans to encourage European officials to take concrete steps to capture the interest generated on some $200 billion in Russian assets held in European accounts.” POLICY CORNER
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A section of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve facility in West Hackberry, La. | U.S. Department of Energy via AP | OVER THE BARREL — If the Israel-Hamas war spreads and disrupts the world’s oil supplies, Biden could be forced to turn to the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve — of which he already tapped more than 40% last year to mitigate the effects of the Ukraine war, Ben Lefebvre reports this morning. The situation is earning Biden plenty of opprobrium from Republicans, who say his move last year was an attempt to keep gas prices lower before the election and has now left the U.S. unprepared. Though the SPR is down to roughly half its Obama-era peak, the Biden admin says there’s nothing to worry about: 351 million barrels remain. “Still, the reserves’ diminished volumes limit Biden’s options to respond to a future shock to the oil markets,” Ben writes. INFRASTRUCTURE LAW IN ACTION — “U.S. Races to Expand Michigan Locks and Secure the Supply Chain,” by WSJ’s Ken Thomas: “The question is whether the upgrades can get the funds they need in time despite a huge influx of cash from Washington.” JUDICIARY SQUARE ANOTHER SCOTUS CASE RAISING EYEBROWS — “A Supreme Court dispute over a $15,000 IRS bill may be aimed at a never-enacted tax on billionaires,” by AP’s Mark Sherman: “CHARLES and KATHLEEN MOORE … are the public face of a high court case backed by business and conservative political interests that could call into question other parts of the U.S. tax code and rule out a much-discussed but never-enacted tax on wealth.”
| | | | PLAYBOOK IS GOING GLOBAL! We’re excited to introduce Global Playbook, POLITICO’s premier newsletter that brings you inside the most important conversations at the most influential events in the world. From the buzzy echoes emanating from the snowy peaks at the WEF in Davos to the discussions and personalities at Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to the heart of diplomacy at UNGA in New York City – author Suzanne Lynch brings it all to your fingertips. Experience the elite. Witness the influential. And never miss a global beat. BE PART OF THE CONVERSATION. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Candace Owens, Megyn Kelly and Vivek Ramaswamy got embroiled in a complex X beef. JB Pritzker’s gifts include a $950 bottle of Japanese whiskey and a bobblehead of himself. Ben Smith’s emails have been requisitioned. Kevin McCarthy encountered some gratitude at the Air and Space Museum. SPOTTED: Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) at the NoMa Harris Teeter, wearing an Oregon Ducks hat a day after their tough loss to the Washington Huskies. WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Ruben Gonzales is now associate director for external affairs at the Peace Corps. He most recently was special assistant to the president for domestic agency personnel, and is an LGBTQ Victory Institute alum. TRANSITION — Ross Branson is now director of government affairs for Saildrone. He previously was executive director for the Center for Infrastructure and Economic Development, and is a Trump administration and Capitol Hill alum. WEDDINGS — Francesca Amodeo, comms director for Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), and Ben Ayres, principal at inSession Strategies, got married Oct. 7 at the Tenuta di Monaciano in Siena, Italy. They met 11 years ago while participating in the University of Georgia’s Washington semester program. Pic … Another pic — Caitlin Piper, counsel in the tax group at Hogan Lovells, and Dustin Volz, cybersecurity and intelligence reporter at the WSJ, got married Saturday at her family cabin in Fort Valley, Va. The evening featured live music from The After Party Experience and ended with a surprise fireworks display to the tune of Tom Petty’s “Runnin’ Down a Dream.” The couple met in fall 2020 on a dating app when Caitlin recognized Dustin from frequent complaints her friend and roommate, a government spokesperson, made about him. Pic … Another pic — Jess Bidgood, senior national political reporter for the Boston Globe, and Kyle Chayka, staff writer for The New Yorker, got married recently at Lake Mauweehoo in Sherman, Conn. The gathering included an oyster bar, lemon curd and elderflower cake by her mother and barrel-aged Negronis by her father. The couple first met in college at Tufts and eventually moved to D.C. together in 2018. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. André Carson (D-Ind.) … Sarah Westwood of the Washington Examiner … Michael Pratt of the National Pharmaceutical Council … Jim Courtovich … Beatrice Peterson … Rodell Mollineau of Rokk Solutions … Jenny Hopkinson … WaPo’s Andrew Heining … Alex Macfarlane of SKDK … ONE Campaign’s Daniel Henke … Phil Bianchi of Squire Patton Boggs … Connor McNutt of Rep. Ilhan Omar’s (D-Minn.) office … Adeline Sandridge of Rep. Kat Cammack’s (R-Fla.) office … Tyler Evans … POLITICO’s Kelly Hooper … Becca Milfeld … Ben Coffey Clark of Bully Pulpit Interactive … former Reps. Tom MacArthur (R-N.J.) and Dave Trott (R-Mich.) … former SEC Chair Christopher Cox … former North Dakota Gov. Jack Dalrymple … former Sen. Dan Evans (R-Wash.) (98) … Bobbe Bridge … Foreign Policy’s Ravi Agrawal … Deloitte’s Kristen McGrath Dugan Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producer Bethany Irvine.
| | | | A message from Business Roundtable: From lifesaving medical devices to essential household goods, U.S. companies and the hardworking Americans they employ have developed many of the world’s most cutting-edge products. These technological advancements were made possible by a competitive, pro-growth tax system that spurred robust investment at home.
But now, America’s status as the global leader in innovation is at risk. Key tax incentives for investment in the U.S. are being phased out while other countries double down on domestic investment. Unless Congress fully reverses these tax increases on U.S. job creators, American businesses and workers will be at a competitive disadvantage.
Congress, don’t let American innovation fall behind. It’s time to restore vital business tax incentives. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
