| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | STILL TAKING APPLICATIONS — “How House Speaker Became Washington’s Most Miserable Job,” by Ian Ward: “‘You basically have a tied House with no operational majority,’ said [political scientist MATTHEW] GREEN. ‘Everything is just stuck.’” MORE UNSOLICITED ADVICE — “I Helped Obama Get Re-Elected. Here’s How Biden Can Win Again, Too,” by Joel Benenson for NYT
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Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) is seen on Capitol Hill Oct. 16, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | THE JORDAN RULES? — We can’t believe we’re writing this, but Washington is waking up this morning to the real possibility that it will end the day with Speaker JIM JORDAN wielding the House gavel. It’s by no means a sure thing, and we’ll get into all that in a moment, but it’s worth reflecting on the mere possibility that the conservative movement’s most relentless brawler stands on the cusp of the speakership and all that it entails — a place in the presidential succession, Oval Office meetings, photo ops with global leaders, a portrait in the House lobby and real, undeniable power. Should Jordan ascend into the speakership, it would mark the culmination of a near-decadelong power grab by the far right and the breaching of a new frontier for MAGA’s reach inside the Capitol. It was Jordan who helped organize a band of misfit conservatives into the House Freedom Caucus, using their voting cards and the fire of the conservative grassroots to push GOP leadership to new ideological extremes, while setting their sights on committee seats, then chairmanships and leadership posts, and now the speaker’s gavel itself. That power was put on display yesterday, in a remarkable cascade of caving from mainstream House conservatives who have aired grave concerns with Jordan, who has spent his career in the partisan hothouses of the Judiciary and Oversight committees, not in the clubbier confines of Appropriations or Ways and Means, where angles are worked and deals are cut. First went House Armed Services Chair MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.), who was thought to be plotting with appropriators and other defense hawks to block Jordan from the gavel. Then Jordan flipped another big fish: Rep. ANN WAGNER (R-Mo.), who last week said she was a “hell no” after accusing Jordan of sabotaging her friend STEVE SCALISE’s speakership bid. So followed Reps. KEN CALVERT (R-Calif.), VERN BUCHANAN (R-Fla.), and DREW FERGUSON (R-Ga.) — all Jordan skeptics we’d been watching closely — and by the evening he’d even picked up a key frontliner, Rep. MARC MOLINARO (R-N.Y.), who declared, “We have to get back to governing.” To be sure, Jordan still has work to do. He didn’t have the necessary 217 votes as of last night. Reps. CARLOS GIMENEZ (R-Fla.) and MIKE LAWLER say they’ll call KEVIN McCARTHY name at the noon vote, while Reps. MARIO DIAZ-BALART (R-Fla.) and MIKE KELLY (R-Pa.) are planning to shout Scalise. Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.) said he’s “not budging,” while Reps. KEN BUCK (R-Colo.) and JOHN RUTHERFORD (R-Fla.) said they’re still in the no column. Jordan can afford to lose only four Republicans, and many more are waiting to announce their intentions — with many of those bristling at the intense pressure campaign they’re facing from Jordan’s fans in the GOP base, some campaign donors and even media figures like GLENN BECK and SEAN HANNITY, who called the holdouts “sensitive little snowflakes” on his Fox News program last night. Still, Jordan allies think they’ve got this. Some members might want to blow off steam on the initial vote, the thinking goes, denying him the honor of a first-ballot victory. But they are confident he’ll get there eventually — and well before the 15th ballot. Most, though not all, closet Jordan critics privately told us much the same — they think he’ll have the gavel tonight. But in making calls last night, we did pick up a note of high tension around how this whole thing has gone down. Conservatives have effectively taken the gavel hostage, refusing to give it to anyone except one of their own — tactics that should be plenty familiar to anyone who has followed Jordan’s career. As of last night, it seems as though many of his longtime critics are going to do what they’ve always done: fall in line while bitching privately about the hard right’s antics. But if things do fall apart today, it will be that dynamic driving the backlash — you either stand up to minority-of-the-majority rule now, or never. It’s hard to underplay the stakes. Electing a Speaker Jordan would mean installing a firm DONALD TRUMP loyalist atop the House — one even more willing to embrace the former president’s desires and tactics than McCarthy was, a “significant player” in the plan to undo JOE BIDEN’s presidential victory. It’s easy to imagine the House moving appropriations bills that would defund DOJ’s Trump probes or zero out various Biden Cabinet officials’ salaries. Or voting to impeach Biden. Or shutting down the government over policy fights with Democrats. Jordan has virtually no relationships with key leaders he would be negotiating with on a regular basis. In addition to leading attack after attack on Biden, he’s led a cadre of conservatives that has long pummeled Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL as an establishment pushover. And he’s had little to no dealings to speak of with HAKEEM JEFFRIES, the House’s top Democrat. That’s to say nothing of the politics. Democrats are salivating over prospect of saddling vulnerable Republicans with Jordan’s record — from his history opposing abortion rights and pushing entitlement cuts to his links to the Ohio State University sexual abuse scandal that he has figured into. Already the DCCC is blasting swing-district Republicans as “spineless” and kowtowing to “a Trump-endorsed extremist.” As Rep. DAN KILDEE (D-Mich.) quipped to us in the hallway yesterday, “There’s probably only one Republican who could be worse for Republicans: GEORGE SANTOS.” All of this will be weighing on wavering Republicans as they vote today. Related reads: “Jordan's wall of opposition starts to crumble,” by Sarah Ferris, Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney … “Jim Jordan has a plan to avert a shutdown if he becomes House speaker. Will it work?” by NBC’s Sahil Kapur … “Google, Amazon, Apple could see antitrust bills put on hold if Jim Jordan is House speaker,” by CNBC’s Brian Schwartz … “Jim Jordan’s remarkably thin legislative track record,” by WaPo’s Aaron Blake Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Business Roundtable: America’s status as the global leader in innovation is at risk. Key tax incentives for investment in the U.S. are being phased out while other countries double down on domestic investment. Unless Congress fully reverses these tax increases on U.S. job creators, American businesses and workers will be at a competitive disadvantage. Congress, it’s time to support American jobs and innovation. Restore essential business tax incentives. Learn more. | | | BIBI GETS BIDEN — It’s official: Biden will head to the Middle East tonight, arriving in Israel tomorrow. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN made the announcement last night after a long meeting with Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU in Tel Aviv. Biden’s visit comes after Netanyahu extended an invitation this past weekend — one that White House officials said Biden was keen to accept given the need to show solidarity following the Oct. 7 Hamas attack. Blinken said Biden would hear directly from Netanyahu and other top Israeli officials about what assistance the nation as the crisis unfolds, coordinate on hostage release efforts, discuss ways to minimize the impact on civilians in Gaza and send a message to any “actor trying to take advantage of this crisis to attack Israel: Don’t.” Amid speculation that any advance into Gaza might be delayed for the visit, White House spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters that there is no agreement to do so: “We are not dictating military terms and operational mandates to the Israeli military,” he said, adding that appropriate security precautions would be taken. After departing Tel Aviv, Biden will land in Jordan to meet with KING ABDULLAH II, President ABDEL FATTAH EL-SISI of Egypt and MAHMOUD ABBAS, the president of the Palestinian National Authority. THE LAST NEGOTIATOR — “‘The Only Real Political Solution’: Ehud Olmert on the 2-State Option and the War in Israel,” by Rolf Dobelli for POLITICO Magazine
| | | | A message from Business Roundtable:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate will meet at 10 a.m. to resume consideration of the JENNIFER HALL’s judicial nomination. The chamber will later take up a cloture vote and a possible confirmation vote for JULIA KATHLEEN MUNLEY’s judicial nomination and the nomination of KARLA ANN GILBRIDE to be general counsel of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. The House will meet at noon. 3 things to watch … - Lawmakers in both chambers are looking to crack down on Iran in the wake of the Hamas attack. Pressure is building in the Senate to block the payment of $6 billion in seized assets, Eleanor Mueller reports this morning, with GOP Sens. MITCH McCONNELL (Ky.), TOM COTTON (Ark.), TIM SCOTT (S.C.) and MARSHA BLACKBURN (Tenn.) all backing legislation. And in the House, a bipartisan group of 110 House lawmakers are urging the White House in a new letter to adopt a tougher stance against Tehran, Anthony Adragna reports this morning, including new sanctions.
- Should Jordan win the speaker’s gavel today, expect growing questions about what that means for the House’s many investigations into Biden and his administration, which Jordan largely orchestrated. As Kyle Cheney notes, “when it comes to both the impeachment inquiry … and claims of politicizing the government, Jordan’s House Republicans have yet to find a smoking gun — or anything close.” One key question that will quickly arise is who takes the reins at the House Judiciary Committee.
- Sen. BOB MENENDEZ got some rare good news yesterday after his fellow New Jersey Democrat CORY BOOKER declined to join in calls for his expulsion following new charges that he worked surreptitiously on Egypt’s behalf. “Everything about this makes me feel uncomfortable,” Booker told CNN’s Manu Raju. Expect that to give cover to other Senate Democrats as they pray Menendez simply retires.
At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning and later depart Washington en route to Israel in the evening. VP KAMALA HARRIS will depart California for an event at Northern Arizona University in the morning. Harris will return to Washington in the evening.
| | | | CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD
|  Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks in Tel Aviv on Tuesday Oct. 17. | AP | LATEST IN THE MIDDLE EAST — As Biden prepares for his trip, Blinken announced that the U.S. and Israel have agreed to develop a plan to get humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza without benefiting Hamas. “If Hamas in any way blocks humanitarian assistance from reaching civilians, including by seizing the aid itself, we'll be the first to condemn it. And we will work to prevent it from happening again,” Blinken told reporters in Tel Aviv. The background: “Blinken made the announcement after 9 hours of negotiations with Netanyahu that stretched into the early hours of Tuesday. Their meeting was disrupted by air raid sirens warning of incoming Palestinian rocket fire, forcing them to briefly shelter in a bunker,” Reuters’ Humeyra Pamuk reports. On the ground: “At the Rafah crossing, Gaza’s only connection to Egypt, truckloads of aid were waiting to go into the tiny, densely populated territory, and trapped civilians — many of them Palestinians with dual nationalities — were hoping desperately to get out,” per AP. “Israel denied reports of a cease-fire in Rafah, which would be needed to open the gates. On Tuesday morning, they were still closed.” More top reads:
2024 WATCH
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Republican presidential candidate Sen. Tim Scott answering questions at Georgetown University in Washington, Oct. 16, 2023. | Stephanie Scarbrough/AP Photo | UH OH, PART 1 — “Scott’s super PAC cancels TV ad reservations as campaign sputters,” by Natalie Allison: “The retreat from TV is the latest sign of how dire the primary has become for a candidate who once anticipated outside help from big donors — but who is now polling in low single digits and hasn’t yet qualified for the third debate.” UH OH, PART 2 — MARIANNE WILLIAMSON, Biden’s lone Democratic primary opponent with any notable polling, has reduced her staff yet again and spent more money than she has raised in the last three months, Brittany Gibson reports: “The immediate burn through the quarter’s cash underscores the challenges the longshot candidate has had in gaining traction this time around.” FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) is endorsing the Senate campaign of former congressional aide and RON DeSANTIS adviser SCOTT PARKINSON: “Scott represents a new wave of conservative leaders ready to dismantle the swamp, take on establishment politicians, and fight for all Americans,” Cruz said of Parkinson, who is running to unseat TIM KAINE (D-Va.).
| | | | A message from Business Roundtable:   | | | TRUMP CARDS
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Donald Trump speaks during a commit to caucus rally on Oct. 16, in Adel, Iowa. | AP | TRAVEL TROUBLES — Former President Trump responded to criticism for referring to Hezbollah as "very smart" by resurrecting a proposal to screen immigrants based on ideology, WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf reports: “The proposals echoed Trump’s 2016 campaign, when he seized on terrorist attacks in Europe to call for banning Muslim immigration, which turned into a ban on travel from several Muslim-majority countries when he became president.” “If you support Hamas or any ideas, ideology that’s having to do with that or any of the other really sick thoughts that go through people’s minds — very dangerous — you’re disqualified,” Trump said yesterday at a campaign event in Iowa. More top reads:
- Trump is back in court this morning for his New York civil fraud trial, but his former lawyer MICHAEL COHEN, who’d been scheduled to testify against him, won’t be due to health issues, AP’s Michael Sisak reports.
- New court filings detail how IRS consultant CHARLES LITTLEJOHN went about stealing and leaking the tax returns of Trump and several other high-earners, Brian Faler reports. Littlejohn, who is to be sentenced in January, did so ”without particularly elaborate trickery.”
- Trump’s legal team told a judge yesterday that the former president plans to sue ex-British spy CHRISTOPHER STEELE for “shocking and scandalous claims” that “damaged his reputation,” AP’s Brian Melley reports.
JUDICIARY SQUARE WHAT DICK DURBIN IS READING — “Justice Amy Coney Barrett says ethics rules for the Supreme Court would be a ‘good idea,’” by NBC News’ Lawrence Hurley: “Speaking at the University of Minnesota Law School, [Supreme Court Justice AMY CONEY] BARRETT said it would be ‘a good idea for us do it’ and suggested that the justices are broadly in support of a set of principles similar to those that lower court judges are required to follow. … She declined to comment on why the court has not yet adopted a code despite pressure from members of Congress and ethics experts.” GUNS IN AMERICA — “Supreme Court again leaves Biden administration's ghost gun rules in place,” by WaPo’s Robert Barnes BEYOND THE BELTWAY BEACH WEEK — “Youngkin's retreat to mix Virginia politics with the presidential kind,” by WaPo’s Laura Vozzella: “MIKE POMPEO, who served as CIA director and later secretary of state under President Donald Trump, is scheduled to appear alongside [Virginia Gov. GLENN] YOUNGKIN at … Youngkin’s second ‘Red Vest Retreat’ — named for his trademark zip-up campaign attire.” GEORGIA ON MY MIND — “Georgia's cash hoard approaches $11 billion after a third year of big surpluses” by AP’s Jeff Amy FROM THE SILVER STATE — “Republicans in Nevada are split in dueling contest over 2024 presidential nomination,” per the AP JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH PROUD BOYS LATEST — “U.S. to appeal sentences of five Proud Boys in Jan. 6 Capitol riot case,” by WaPo’s Tom Jackman: “The government filed notice Monday that it was appealing the sentences of the five members of the far-right Proud Boys group convicted in the Jan. 6 attack, the second such unusual notice by federal prosecutors after a similar filing in July indicating they would challenge the punishments handed down to five members of the Oath Keepers for their role in the Capitol riot.” The context: “In both cases, the judges imposed sentences well below those recommended by the federal sentencing guidelines, which are only advisory.”
| | | | PLAYBOOK IS GOING GLOBAL! We’re excited to introduce Global Playbook, POLITICO’s premier newsletter that brings you inside the most important conversations at the most influential events in the world. From the buzzy echoes emanating from the snowy peaks at the WEF in Davos to the discussions and personalities at Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to the heart of diplomacy at UNGA in New York City – author Suzanne Lynch brings it all to your fingertips. Experience the elite. Witness the influential. And never miss a global beat. BE PART OF THE CONVERSATION. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Josh Dawsey (may have) some big news? Susan Cole is a bit bewildered about going viral. Bobby Jindal no longer thinks Donald Trump is an “egomaniacal madman.” FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Mary Robbins is now chief speechwriter for DOL's Acting Secretary Julie Su. She previously was deputy director of speechwriting for Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and is an SKDK alum. WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Andy Flick is now the director of legislative affairs for VP Kamala Harris. He previously was the executive director for the New Democrat Coalition and spent more than 14 years in various senior roles in the House. TRANSITIONS — Anne Sokolov is now the executive director of the New Democrat Coalition in the House. She previously was the chief of staff for Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D-Ill.) and is a Biden administration, Max Rose, Tim Ryan and Charlie Wilson alum. … Nairka Treviño Müller is now director of Hispanic media for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. She previously was comms director for Rep. Teresa Leger Fernández (D-N.M.). … Curley Company has added Chelsea Echavarria, Pheniece Jones and Kate Urbach as VPs and Gloria Funes as creative director. ENGAGED — Brenda Arredondo, director at the Raben Group and Joint Economic Committee alum, and Matt Archibald, Director of Raytheon's Cyber Academy, got engaged on Saturday. The couple met on Match.com. WEEKEND WEDDINGS — Jen Heins, chief of staff for Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), and Nick Davis, assistant Iowa AG for Brenna Bird, got married Saturday night in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. They met working for Grassley. Pic … SPOTTED: Chuck and Barbara Grassley, Penne Barton, Annie Clark, Brian Simonsen, Steph Carlson, Molly Severn, Matt and Julia Dailer, George Hartmann and Luke Martz. — Alex Davidson, director of public affairs at the Beer Institute and a Paul Mitchell alum, and Stephanie Arbetter, senior manager of social and content marketing for Marriott, got married Saturday at the Mayflower Hotel. They met four years ago at the Arbetter sisters’ infamous Yom Kippur break-fast dinner. Pic… Another pic … SPOTTED: Erica Arbetter, Molly and Joe Venegas, Stacey and Jacob Daniels, Faith Mabry and Tanner Dorrough, Emily and Luke Graeter, Ryan Dilworth, Hawley Stanton, and Ainsley and Vincent Giglierano. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Bobby Panzenbeck, VP at The Lafayette Company, and Cassie Panzenbeck, financial adviser at Raymond James, welcomed Vivian Lucille Panzenbeck on Oct. 1. She joins big siblings Robert (4) and Doris (almost 2). Pic … Another pic — Julie McClain Downey, Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs at DOL, and Sean Downey, partner at Hilltop Public Solutions welcomed Finnegan John Downey on Oct. 13. He came in at 7 lbs and 15 oz and joins sisters Grace and Lucy. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) … Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Ill.) … Bloomberg’s Peter Grauer and Angela Greiling Keane … CBS’ Bo Erickson … POLITICO’s Myah Ward, Jordan Wolman and Amanda Britton … Kelly Misselwitz of Rep. Ilhan Omar’s (D-Minn.) office … Diana Hamilton of Senate Appropriations … TikTok’s Michael Beckerman … NASA’s Alicia Brown … Rich Thomas of Monument Advocacy … Kaiser Health News’ Julie Rovner … Martin Matishak … Ken Baer of Crosscut Strategies … John Monsif … former Reps. Gene Green (D-Texas), Virgil Goode (R-Va.) and Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.) … Bill Steiger ... Matthew Hennessy of Tremont Public Advisors … Morgan O’Brien … former North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory … Ethics & Public Policy Center’s Josh Good … CNN’s Caroline Klein … Modesta Vžesniauskaitė Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producer Bethany Irvine. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook incorrectly labeled Q3 campaign finance data for 2024 presidential contenders. The figures listed were quarterly receipts.
| | | | A message from Business Roundtable: From lifesaving medical devices to essential household goods, U.S. companies and the hardworking Americans they employ have developed many of the world’s most cutting-edge products. These technological advancements were made possible by a competitive, pro-growth tax system that spurred robust investment at home.
But now, America’s status as the global leader in innovation is at risk. Key tax incentives for investment in the U.S. are being phased out while other countries double down on domestic investment. Unless Congress fully reverses these tax increases on U.S. job creators, American businesses and workers will be at a competitive disadvantage.
Congress, don’t let American innovation fall behind. It’s time to restore vital business tax incentives. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
