| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | WHAT EVERYONE IS READING — “Iran Helped Plot Attack on Israel Over Several Weeks,” by WSJ’s Summer Said, Benoit Faucon and Stephen Kalin: “Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.” WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE IS SAYING — Deputy national security adviser JON FINER to George Stephanopolous on “Good Morning America” today: “I think what we can be quite clear about is Iran is broadly complicit in these attacks, for having supported Hamas going back decades, for having provided financial support, for having supported training, weapons to Hamas. What we don’t have is direct information that shows Iranian involvement in ordering or planning the attack that took place over the last couple of days. It’s something that we are going to look at closely.”
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Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) is slamming the Biden administration over the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: JORDAN BLASTS BIDEN ON THE BORDER — House Judiciary Chair JIM JORDAN is putting the screws to President JOE BIDEN on his handling of the southern border. A new report obtained by Playbook and set to be released later today highlights how migrant arrests and deportations have plummeted as Department of Homeland Security resources have been reallocated to deal with the border crisis. The report compiles some eye-popping stats: Encounters with undocumented migrants at the southern border totaled 2.2 million for the 11 months through August, with September’s numbers expected to add another 260,000 or more, shattering previous records. And of the more than 5 million migrants encountered in the first 26 months of the Biden administration, nearly half had “no confirmed departure” from the U.S. “There is virtually no enforcement of our immigration laws,” the report concludes, citing transcribed interviews with Homeland Security officials and slamming Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS for making America “less safe.” The White House response … “This so-called report is full of lies from House Republicans who continue to play politics while sabotaging President Biden’s work to ramp up enforcement and personnel at the border,” said spokesperson ANGELO FERNÁNDEZ HERNÁNDEZ, who cited the administration’s more than 3.6 million repatriations and expulsions since January 2021 as well as Biden’s $4 billion request to Congress for troops, border agents and other resources. No surprise that Jordan is keeping the heat on the border, of course, but the context is important:
- It comes days after the White House made crucial policy pivots, restarting some border wall construction and unfreezing deportations of Venezuelans.
- Democratic governors continue piling on the Biden administration, demanding help with the flood of migrants coming to their states.
- Another shutdown deadline is just 40 days away, with Republicans pushing for border funding and policy concessions, and Democrats showing some willingness to negotiate.
- And, of course, Jordan is running for speaker, making border issues a centerpiece of his pitch.
Speaking of which … WHAT WILL THE HOUSE DO? — Hamas’ deadly attack on Israel this weekend has prompted a wave of speculation about whether the House is capable of responding — including whether Acting Speaker Pro Tempore PATRICK McHENRY needs to be given more authority to move legislation. Were KEVIN McCARTHY still leading right now, have no doubt that the California Republican would quickly call up a vote that would underscore U.S. support for its closest ally in the Middle East, while also attempting to split Democrats, whose ranks include Israel critics and Palestinian sympathizers.
|  Many House Republicans are hoping the tragedy provides a rally-around-the-flag moment for the party as acting Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry guides them through an interim period. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | It’s not for lack of interest. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) and ranking Democrat GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.) crafted a pro-Israel resolution over the weekend, Axios first reported. McCaul said he expects the resolution “to be one of the first, if not the first items considered on the floor once we elect a new Speaker.” Yet there’s plenty of fear right now that electing a new speaker won’t be wrapped up this week, as Republicans hope. Besides the horse race between Jordan and Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE, members have to work through tricky side issues such as the threshold for the GOP speaker nomination, whether to reform the rule that allowed McCarthy to be deposed and how to deal with the hard-liners who instigated the chaos. Many House Republicans are hoping the tragedy provides a rally-around-the-flag moment for the party. “Our hope is that this whole situation would be clarifying for our membership, that we need to get our shit together and elect a new speaker,” one senior GOP aide told Playbook. “Because stuff like this can happen … and we’re rudderless and leaderless.” If that turns out to be wishful thinking, lawmakers appear to have three options to move legislation, House aides tell us — though each of them has challenges.
- A member could try to call up a pro-Israel resolution by unanimous consent. But there are questions about whether McHenry, who believes his authority is limited only to overseeing a speakership election, can recognize such a motion. Even if he did, any one single lawmaker could object, which seems likely, given some of the reaction on the hard left.
- The House could vote to give McHenry full speaker pro tempore authority. That would require the support of a majority of members present and voting — a tall order given the divisions in the chamber but an option nonetheless. We’re told that some House Republicans have encouraged McHenry to consider it, or even run for speaker permanently.
- McHenry could try to move legislation under his current, acting authority. The North Carolina Republican has pushed back on suggestions that he would do that. But he’s already used the speaker’s power to rearrange Capitol real estate. And while any member could object to any further moves, that could be overruled by a majority vote of the House.
The current morass is also posing a bigger question: What if there were a bona fide national emergency here in the States? McHenry, after all, was appointed under a relatively new rule instituted after the 9/11 attacks to provide continuity of government. Limiting his powers to simply running an election, some wonks are suggesting, would seem to run counter to the intent of that rule. “What if we were in the kind of scenario for which the rule was originally drafted? Would we actually want a speaker with limited powers/who could only drive the House towards the election of a new speaker?” MOLLY REYNOLDS, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution told ABC’s Mary Bruce, Benjamin Siegel, and Caleigh Bartash. “I’m not sure, and I worry that setting a precedent now could hamstring the House in a future crisis.”
| | | | A message from Amway: Amway proudly helps people live better, healthier lives with products grown & made right here at home. Through millions in continued U.S. manufacturing investments & the efforts of employees and independent business owners alike, Amway positively impacts American communities. Learn more. | | | Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. PROGRAMMING NOTE — The Playbook Daily Briefing podcast and Playbook PM are off today in observance of National Indigenous People’s Day. Both will be back on their regular timings tomorrow. THE LATEST IN ISRAEL … On the ground: Israel today “vowed to lay total siege to the Gaza Strip,” AP’s Josef Federman and Issam Adwan report from Jerusalem, “as its military scoured the country’s south for militants, guarded breaches in its border fence and pounded the impoverished, Hamas-ruled territory in the wake of an unprecedented weekend incursion.” At least nine U.S. citizens were killed in the attacks over the weekend, State Department spokesperson MATT MILLER confirmed this morning in an appearance on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” The U.S. reaction: President JOE BIDEN yesterday “scrambled to prevent Hamas’s assault on Israel from escalating into a multi-front, regional conflict, deploying a U.S. aircraft carrier group to the eastern Mediterranean and rushing arms to the Israeli military in a bid to deter the Lebanon-based Hezbollah and other actors from attacking,” WaPo’s Michael Birnbaum, John Hudson and Ellen Nakashima report. They note that the administration has paused its effort to get Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel for the time being and instead “concentrating its diplomatic outreach on getting Israel’s neighbors to stand aside as the government tries to dismantle Hamas.” Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER took Chinese President XI JINPING to task over his “failure to condemn Hamas’ incursion into Israel” in Xi’s first meeting with congressional leaders in eight years, Bloomberg reports. “I urge you and the Chinese people to stand with the Israeli people and condemn the cowardly and vicious attacks upon them,” Schumer told Xi. Meanwhile, Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.) said yesterday that he won’t end his monthslong blockade of military nominations over the Biden administration’s abortion policy amid the conflict, our colleagues Ursula Perano, Connor O’Brien, Burgess Everett and Joe Gould report. And the U.N. Security Council “held an emergency meeting behind closed doors Sunday,” AP’s Edith Lederer writes, “with the United States demanding all 15 members strongly condemn ‘these heinous terrorist attacks committed by Hamas,’ but they took no immediate action.” Policy perspective: “‘We’ve Been Shaken Out of This Fantasy’: How the Left Sees the War in Israel,” by Alex Burns: “A former top aide for Bernie Sanders on how Israel’s critics on the political left see the Hamas attack and what this means for deal-making in the region.” How it happened: “‘There Were Terrorists Inside’: How Hamas’s Attack on Israel Unfolded,” by NYT’s Patrick Kingsley, Aaron Boxerman and Gabby Sobelman … “How a night of dancing and revelry in Israel turned into a massacre,” by WaPo’s Loveday Morris, Imogen Piper, Joyce Sohyun Lee and Susannah George The ripple effect: “War in Israel spurs renewed threat of oil market turmoil,” by Matt Daily and Manuel Quiñones
| | | | A message from Amway:   Lots of companies talk about investing in America. Amway is actually doing it, investing $300M in U.S.-based manufacturing in recent years. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House and Senate are out. At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief this morning and has nothing else on his public schedule. VP KAMALA HARRIS has nothing on her public schedule.
| | PLAYBOOK READS | | 9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR
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Steve Scalise is pitching himself as the man for the job after Kevin McCarthy was ousted as speaker. | Francis Chung/E&E News | 1. SCALISE’S MOMENT: As House Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE and Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) face off against each other to take over as House speaker, the moment is an ascendant and long-expected one for Scalise as the Louisiana Republican takes a shot at the top job after years in the shadow of McCarthy, NYT’s Annie Karni writes. “A key plank of Mr. Scalise’s pitch to his colleagues is that he is a fund-raising powerhouse, second only to Mr. McCarthy. He has raised nearly $170 million over the course of his congressional career to help Republicans win elections. In the 2022 midterm elections, Mr. Scalise spent 112 days on the road campaigning for members and candidates. Over the past five years, his office said, he has given $7.2 million directly to Republican members and candidates and transferred $50 million to the National Republican Campaign Committee.” Also adding to Scalise’s bid is the belief among his allies that “the fact that he was not involved in the debt ceiling negotiations with President Biden, which ultimately proved to be a catalyst for Mr. McCarthy’s downfall, could make him a viable option for the hard-right members who rebelled against the former speaker.” 2. WOWZA: “Vietnam tried to hack U.S. officials, CNN with posts on X, probe finds,” by WaPo’s Joseph Menn, Max Hoppenstedt, Michael Birnbaum, Yann Philippin, Rafael Buschmann and Nicola Naber: “Targeted were two of the most influential foreign policy voices on Capitol Hill: Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Tex.) and Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), a member of the Foreign Relations Committee and chair of its subcommittee on the Middle East. Also targeted were Asia experts at Washington think tanks and journalists from CNN, including JIM SCIUTTO, the outlet’s chief national security analyst, and two Asia-based reporters.” 3. DOWN THE BALLOT: Democratic donor groups are starting to go in heavy on the state level, picking up the momentum from the 2022 midterms with next month’s Virginia legislative races. The States Project is investing more than $4.5 million in the contests, our colleague Shia Kapos reports, as Democrats aim for control of the state Senate and House, with a chance at completing the triumvirate with a governor’s race in 2025 on the horizon. To no surprise, the group intends to lean into the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision as a catalyst to harness voters. Also on the target list: The Arizona House and Senate, the New Hampshire legislature, the Pennsylvania Senate, the Kansas House and Nevada. 4. HALEY’S GAMBIT: NIKKI HALEY’s push to overtake RON DeSANTIS in the 2024 presidential primary positioning is gaining more and more steam in early states like New Hampshire — but mounting a serious challenge to Trump is another thing entirely. “Boosted by well-received debate performances, slow-but-steady campaigning and a new surge of spending, Haley is trying to seize a narrow opening in a pivotal state,” WaPo’s Hannah Knowles and Dylan Wells report from Bedford, N.H., noting that her pitch “has piqued growing interest from moderate voters” all while she embraces “more polarizing positions on some issues.” Still, Haley’s camp and the other candidates are placing significant bets in New Hampshire, where Republican voters in the state “have long shown an independent streak; they have backed a different candidate than Iowans in recent years; and they are more moderate on social issues such as abortion.” Trump is planning to give a speech in New Hampshire tonight, but the other candidates will be in the state later this week as GOP Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU prepares for a potential endorsement against Trump. And it’s not just New Hampshire: Haley campaign is expanding her operation in Iowa, “opening its first headquarters in Clive, adding two staffers with Iowa political experience and actively hiring others as it seeks to capitalize on the momentum,” the Des Moines Register’s Brianne Pfannenstiel reports.
| | | | A message from Amway:   | | | 5. BACKSTORY: “The inside story of how Newsom picked Butler for Senate,” by Chris Cadelago and Melanie Mason in Sacramento, Calif.: “Early last Friday morning, as Congress careened toward a government shutdown, [California Gov. GAVIN] NEWSOM got a call from Sen. ALEX PADILLA, once an aide to [late Sen. DIANNE] FEINSTEIN who was appointed to the Senate by the governor in 2021. Feinstein had died, Padilla told Newsom. He was now on the clock to name her replacement. But he needed time to mourn. “The next 48 hours would come to define a transformational chapter not just in the career of Newsom, a last-term governor who is widely seen as a future White House aspirant, but also for the woman he pursued to fill the open Senate seat. LAPHONZA BUTLER, a longtime labor leader, was described by confidants and coworkers as eager to take chances, yet loath to make snap judgements.” 6. CRUZ CONTROL: As Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) faces a challenge to his reelection bid from Rep. COLIN ALLRED (D-Texas), he appears to be cranking up his fundraising operation, bringing in $5.4 million in the third quarter, Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser scoops. “Cruz's haul is up from the $4.4 million he raised during the April-June second quarter of fundraising and the $1.8 million he brought in during the first three months of 2023.” The campaign tells Fox News that it is sitting on more than $6.7 million cash on hand. 7. ZERO SUM GEOPOLITICS: “Some in Congress want to cut Ukraine aid and boost Taiwan’s. But Taiwan sees its fate tied to Kyiv’s,” by AP’s Didi Tang: “Taiwan and Ukraine are effectively rivals for a limited pool of U.S. military assistance. But that’s not necessarily how Taiwan and many of its supporters see it. They view Taiwan’s fate as closely linked to that of Ukraine as it struggles to push back a Russian invasion. They say China is watching closely to see if the United States has the political stamina to support an ally in a prolonged, costly war. The U.S. aid to Ukraine also has led to weapons manufacturers stepping up production — something that could benefit Taiwan in a clash with China.” 8. OFF THE CLOCK: “What happened to the TikTok ban?” by Gavin Bade: “Biden’s national security review of the app is still frozen by legal concerns and Congress’ headline TikTok bill — the RESTRICT Act — is stuck in the mud despite backing from senior members of both parties. In an effort to break the logjam, the administration is now throwing its support behind alternative legislation that has yet to be released. The impasse highlights a core dilemma for Biden on China: How much to separate the U.S. from Chinese tech companies that are deeply intertwined into American lifestyles but are under the likely control of an increasingly authoritarian and adversarial government.” 9. THE SANTOS CLAUSE: “A Fake Loan Could Mean Real Trouble for George Santos,” by NYT’s Grace Ashford: “It is clear that prosecutors see a link between [campaign treasurer NANCY] MARKS’s criminal activity and [Rep. GEORGE] SANTOS. The same team of U.S. attorneys handled their cases; the proceedings share the same court docket number and were overseen by the same judge, JOANNA SEYBERT. Mr. Santos has not been charged with falsifying the loan or with other campaign finance violations, and Ms. Marks’s lawyer has said that she is not cooperating with prosecutors. But Mr. Santos’s proximity to the criminal activity admitted by Ms. Marks would seem to leave him vulnerable to additional charges.”
| | PLAYBOOKERS | | OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED on Friday night for a party celebrating Taylor Lorenz’s new book, “Extremely Online: The Untold Story of Fame, Influence, and Power on the Internet” ($25.90) on the rooftop of Western Market: Sabrina Siddiqui, Sara Fischer, Shadi Hamid, Wes Lowery, John Hudson, Neil Grace, Sahil Kapur, Ryan Reilly, Craig Timberg, Francesca Chambers, Nikki Schwab, Dave Weigel, Nu Wexler, Tara Palmeri, Rob Flaherty, Ali Breland and Jeremy Barr. WEEKEND WEDDINGS — Melissa Schwartz, comms director for the Interior Department, and Michael Kasprzyk, a strategic IT consultant, got married Saturday evening at Crimson Whiskey Bar in D.C. SPOTTED: Interior Secretary Deb Haaland and Skip Sayre, Andrew and Jill McCabe, Michael Bromwich and Felice Friedman, Jacob Wood and Brenda Plantikow, Nana Efua Mumford and Maj. Brad Smith, Eric Schultz and Sean Crotty, Kendra and Jonathan Lamy, Kate Kelly and Sam Bell, Rachael and Dan Taylor, Mariah Sixkiller, Ciaran Clayton, Matt Lee-Ashley, Leah Donahey and Liz and Ben Klein. Pic … Another pic — John Christie III, SVP at the Smith Free Group and an Alma Adams alum, and Paloma Perez, comms director at the FCC and a Xóchitl Torres Small alum, got married on Saturday in Dripping Springs, Texas, Paloma’s hometown. The two met when John showed up as a surprise plus-one guest at Paloma’s housewarming party more than 6 years ago. Pic … Another pic — Robyn Shapiro, deputy chief of staff for the antitrust division of the Justice Department and an American Economic Liberties Project and BerlinRosen alum, and Brian McGrail, an associate at Wilkinson Stekloff, got married on Saturday at Edith Wharton’s home, The Mount in the Berkshires. The couple met at Williams College. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: WaPo’s Aaron Blake … NPR’s Juana Summers … Justin Barasky of Left Hook … Rachel Pearson … former Reps. Tom Perriello (D-Va.) and Artur Davis (D-Ala.) … POLITICO’s Arianna Skibell … Chris Kofinis of Park Street Strategies … Peter Billerbeck of House Foreign Affairs … Jodie Kelley of the Electronic Transactions Association … Becki Donatelli … ABC’s Justin Fishel … Russell Dye of Rep. Jim Jordan’s (R-Ohio) office … Kat Skiles of Narrative Creative Agency … CAPR’s Carrie Adams … Shailagh Murray … Michael Tubman … Peterson Institute for International Economics’ Chad Brown … McKinsey & Company’s David Bibo … C-SPAN founder Brian Lamb … Russell Moore of Christianity Today … Miles Taylor … Amy Dacey of the Sine Institute and American University Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producer Bethany Irvine.
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