| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | OVERNIGHT — AP: “Israel’s military told some 1 million Palestinians living in Gaza on Friday to evacuate the north, according to the United Nations, an unprecedented order for almost half the population of the sealed-off territory ahead of an expected ground invasion against the ruling Hamas militant group.” OUR CRUMBLING DEMOCRACY — “The Supreme Court avoided disaster when a hunk of marble fell in a courtyard used by justices,” by AP’s Mark Sherman
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Rep. Steve Scalise's allies are hardening their opposition to Rep. Jim Jordan (pictured) becoming House speaker. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | NO EXIT — House Republicans will meet again at 10 a.m. this morning to take another shot at choosing a new speaker after House Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE abruptly withdrew from the race last night. They will be gathering with mutual trust at a low point, their most experienced leaders sidelined or discredited and no clear path forward. (If we wanted to be dramatic, we might note that today is also Friday the 13th.) Rep. JIM JORDAN, who garnered only 99 votes in his faceoff with Scalise in the Republican conference earlier this week, is already working the phones to try to secure the job. But there are signs that Jordan will have the same problem as Scalise (and KEVIN McCARTHY before him): no path to 217 votes. Scalise started Thursday in a precarious position. Far-right Jordan backers went public with refusals to support Scalise. McCarthy allies plotted behind the scenes, whispering about the Majority Leader’s disloyalty. McCarthy himself publicly expressed doubts about whether Scalise could prevail. DONALD TRUMP, who endorsed Jordan, stirred the pot by repeatedly mentioning Scalise’s health in interviews. “Steve is a man that is in serious trouble, from the standpoint of his cancer,” Trump said. Scalise bled support all day long, and by last night’s GOP meeting at 7:30, he realized the speakership was out of his grasp. “We have to come together for the country. … It’s much bigger than me or anybody else, and nobody’s going to use me as an excuse to hold back our ability to get the House open again,” Scalise said, later telling Punchbowl's John Bresnahan that there were “games being played and I said I’m not going to be a part of it.” But the schisms seem to be deepening. Just as the overthrow of McCarthy embittered McCarthy’s supporters and cost Scalise, the defenestration of Scalise has infuriated Scalise allies who are hardening their opposition to Jordan. Case in point: Last night, Scalise loyalist Rep. ANN WAGNER (R-Mo.)told Olivia Beavers that she would “absolutely not” support Jordan after the way he treated Scalise. While Jordan was publicly showing graciousness saying Republicans should rally around their nominee, Wagner said he privately undercut Scalise, telling him after he won: “You get one ballot. And when you go down, you will nominate me.” When Scalise tried to protest, saying he won fair and square, Jordan replied, “America wants me,” before storming out the door. (Jordan’s office denies that this is how the convo went down.) Jordan is also viewed as an unproven fundraiser and a political headache for moderates facing difficult elections next year. It remains to be seen whether his relatively recent conversion to leadership team player will fully repair the Freedom Caucus cofounder’s history in fomenting the 2013 government shutdown — which memorably led then-Speaker JOHN BOEHNER to call Jordan a “legislative terrorist” — or his cheering on Trump’s historic 35-day shutdown over the border wall Plus, some members have expressed reservations that backing him might be rewarding bad behavior, allowing Jordan as well as McCarthy allies to sink another GOP leader they find credible. “We’re going to have the same problem with Jordan that we had with Scalise,” Rep. MIKE GARCIA (R-Calif.) said, though he indicated he’d back Jordan. “It’s a math problem.” WHO ELSE MIGHT ENTER THE RACE? Last night, the names being floated included: Majority Whip TOM EMMER, Rep. KEVIN HERN (R-Okla.) and acting Speaker PATRICK McHENRY (R-N.C.), who for the first time yesterday cracked open the door to being drafted when he said, “it’s up to the will of the conference.” (As a McCarthy inner-circler, he’ll immediately face a backlash from some of the eight members who voted to overthrow McCarthy — if not more, given his role crafting the bipartisan debt ceiling deal conservatives largely panned earlier this spring.) Keep an eye out for this, too: The WaPo reports, “When House Republicans meet on Friday, they plan to vote on the same rule change proposal” that would require their speaker candidate to secure 217 votes before taking the nomination to the floor of the House. That’s the proposal that went down in flames on Wednesday and presaged Jordan’s loss to Scalise in conference. Meanwhile, four other scenarios that might resemble “West Wing” or “Veep” plot lines (we’re not quite sure which) remain in the air: 1. Rep. TROY NEHLS (R-Texas) hasn’t let go of the fantasy of a Speaker Trump. “At some point in time, we all need to lay down our weapons and call in the leader of our party and have him address our conference,” the congressman told CNN’s Manu Raju. 2. The “Only Kevin” crowd hasn’t let go of the fantasy of resurrecting Speaker McCarthy. They are circulating a new letter arguing for the restoration of the ousted GOP leader. 3. Democrats, including Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES, continue to float the idea of lending their votes to a speaker candidate who would lead a bipartisan House. (Some Democrats have suggested House Rules Chair TOM COLE of Oklahoma could be a potentially palatable option.) But things would have to get significantly more dysfunctional for this path to become viable. “All Republican options have to fail first,” one Democratic House member told Playbook last night. 4. Rep. DAVE JOYCE (R-Ohio) wants the House to vote on giving McHenry the full powers of a speaker for a set time period, perhaps 30 to 90 days. He says he’s been workshopping the details of the plan with the House parliamentarian. FWIW, Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) has already expressed his displeasure with this plan. (There’s a historical precedent here, you know: During emergencies, the Roman Republic would sometimes vote to grant a temporary leader sweeping powers that came with an expiration date. The Romans had a name for this position: dictator. NB: Abuse of this position is also how both CAESAR and PALPATINE transformed republics into empires. Just saying!) THE REPERCUSSIONS: Lacking a speaker, there are no negotiations underway about avoiding a government shutdown next month. Aid for Israel and Ukraine can’t move forward. In the middle of the chaos yesterday, Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), the chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, addressed reporters with a sober warning about how his party’s embarrassing failure to elect a speaker was harming U.S. national security. “The world's on fire,” he said. “Our adversaries are watching what we do, and quite frankly they like it. Chairman XI [JINPING] talks about how democracy doesn't work. And we're proving him right.” Referring to America’s adversaries, McCaul added, “I see a lot of threats out there.” Then he motioned towards where his Republican colleagues were meeting. “But one of the biggest threats I see is in that room.” Further reading: — “Republicans fume as party tanks latest speaker pick,” by Sarah Ferris, Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney: “It’s not just GOP centrists sparring with the hard right. It’s not just McCarthy loyalists secretly fuming at Scalise or his allies. There’s mounting anger across the entire conference that no GOP speaker candidate, including Jordan, appears able to prevail under the current margins.” — “With the World in Crisis, House Republicans Bicker Among Themselves,” by NYT’s Carl Hulse: “Despite conflicts overseas and an approaching deadline to avert a government shutdown, Republicans are unable to rise above their internal divisions.” — “The House GOP Can’t Elect a Speaker — and Donald Trump Doesn’t Really Care,” by John F. Harris: “If Trump is a would-be authoritarian, the House drama shows that he is not the kind who cares much about exercising authority beyond himself.” Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your odds on whether or not House Republicans will stay in town until they’ve chosen a new speaker: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
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| THE PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW: JON FINER — On Thursday, Ryan sat down with Finer, the principal deputy national security adviser, in the White House’s Ward Room, a cramped, wood-paneled space in the West Wing basement that recently served as a temporary Situation Room while the real one was being renovated for a year. They discussed how President JOE BIDEN is balancing his clear and unambiguous support for Israel with concerns about the ramifications of the Israeli response, Biden’s warnings to Iran, how Finer’s own experiences as a reporter in Gaza have influenced him, and whether America should now consider itself at war with Hamas. You can listen to the full interview on this week’s episode of Playbook Deep Dive. What follows are some key excerpts: — On whether the U.S. is at war with Hamas, considering how many Americans were killed in the 10/7 attacks: “I would say that Israel is at war with Hamas, and the United States is foursquare behind Israel in providing support for that war. … What I would say right now is that this is Israel's war.” — On balancing support for Israel’s right to retaliate against Hamas with concern for innocent Palestinians: “Look, we have said from the beginning of this conflict that we fully supported Israel's right to defend itself, period, and would continue to provide support for Israel's efforts to defend itself and have articulated all the ways in which we would do that. We also have been quite clear … that we believe democracies are stronger, more secure, more successful when they act according to rule of law, including law of war during military operations. And that is quite important. … “I think you are going to see, unfortunately, a lot of ugly things unfold in the coming days and weeks. …And, you know, you may or may not see us respond in real time to every single thing that happens in the course of war. … My main lesson, I guess, that I would draw from my time in journalism is that wars are really, really ugly and awful and best avoided, even though they sometimes can't be. But we are going to make, I think, the bulk of our comments and messages and advice in private.” — On whether Israel is heeding the Biden administration’s warnings about respecting the laws of war: “One of the things I'm not going to do is kind of rate them at any given kind of moment [or] snapshot in a period of time. … I don’t think that's really our role. And I think doing things like that makes it harder to have the more direct, more candid conversations that we can best have in private.” — On Biden’s theory of the Middle East: “President Biden's theory was that, militarily speaking, over the previous two decades, the United States had been too invested in this region — two long wars … and a theory that previous administrations in some cases had that what it means to be involved in the Middle East is boiled down to your military presence. He had a very different theory, which is: heavy diplomatic involvement in trying to de-escalate tensions and conflicts in the region, trying to help countries — really starting with our core allies — better integrate with each other in the region, but not predicated on the same heavy level of military commitment that we had seen really since 9/11. And so that had been the theory. It remains the theory of the case to this day.” WONKS YOU SHOULD KNOW — “How a billionaire-backed network of AI advisers took over Washington,” by Brendan Bordelon: “A sprawling network spread across Congress, federal agencies and think tanks is pushing policymakers to put AI apocalypse at the top of the agenda — potentially boxing out other worries and benefiting top AI companies with ties to the network.”
| | | | A message from Amway:   Trout Lake Farm in Washington State – where Nutrilite by Amway is grown – employs environmentally sustainable crop protection: a team of falcons. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House and the Senate are out. 3 things to watch …
- The superseding indictment filed yesterday against Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) raised a stark question: Was the longtime chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, with massive powers over arms sales and other national security matters, an unregistered agent of a foreign power? The possibility was enough for Sen. JOHN FETTERMAN (D-Pa.) to call for Menendez’s expulsion. Perhaps others will follow today, or at least before they return to the Capitol next week and get badgered by reporters about it.
- Chatter about a potential bipartisan governing deal in the House moved a bit further out of the realm of “West Wing” fanfic yesterday due to the mounting GOP chaos. Prominent Republicans including Reps. DON BACON (Neb.) and MIKE ROGERS (Ala.) mused about a cross-aisle agreement, but that still strikes us as more of a negotiating tactic than a genuine entreaty. But watch today to see if more in the GOP start getting curious about taking Jeffries up on his offer.
- If you notice a heavier Capitol Police presence on the Hill today, that’s out of an abundance of caution surrounding Hamas’ call for a worldwide “Day of Rage.” Police office cited no specific threat in a message sent to congressional staff yesterday. But there have been specific threats levied against several prominent left-wing House members, and some of them received a special security briefing, Nick Wu and Holly Otterbein report.
At the White House Biden will travel to Philadelphia to tour Tioga Marine Terminal and deliver remarks about Bidenomics in the afternoon, before heading to New Castle, Del., and then back to the White House. VP KAMALA HARRIS has nothing on her public schedule.
| | PLAYBOOK READS | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD
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House members take part in a bipartisan vigil held in response to the recent terrorist attacks in Israel outside the U.S. Capitol, Oct. 12, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | MIDDLE EAST LATEST — As the Israeli-Hamas war deepens, there were a flurry of developments yesterday from the Biden administration, in the political realm and on the ground. Here’s what you need to know: The official U.S. response: The U.S. and Qatar put on hold the unfreezing of $6 billion in Iranian funds amid heavy political pressure, per WaPo — keeping a lid on monies expected to be freed up for humanitarian purposes via a prisoner swap. … The U.S. will start evacuation flights today for Americans in Israel, per the AP. … The U.S. will not send its own military into Gaza to rescue Americans, at least for now — Jonathan Lemire explains why. … Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN has landed in Tel Aviv. The U.S. political fallout: Biden’s assertive pro-Israel stance is winning him support abroad and at home. His face is on a big billboard in Tel Aviv, as Israelis shift from embracing Trump to celebrating Biden, NYT’s Jonathan Weisman and Lisa Lerer report. Focus groups of swing voters in Georgia found them favoring Biden’s response (and still anti-Trump), Axios’ Eugene Scott reports. … Among Dems, there’s a generational divide on the conflict, Steve Shepard and Kelly Garrity report. … Tensions between Michigan Democratic Reps. RASHIDA TLAIB and SHRI THANEDAR boiled over: “While he is busy posting memes, his residents are calling my office asking for my assistance because he is absent from doing his job,” Tlaib said, per The Detroit News. War report: U.S. intelligence from February concluded that Israel and Hezbollah were unlikely to engage in a broader regional war, WaPo’s Shane Harris and Sarah Dadouch scooped. … The International Criminal Court said yesterday that war crimes committed by Hamas or Israel would fall under its jurisdiction, Reuters’ Anthony Deutsch and Stephanie van den Berg scooped. … The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is worsening, with more than 1,500 people killed in airstrikes and more than 300,000 forced from their homes, per the NYT. And Human Rights Watch said Israel used white phosphorus, a weapon that threatens civilians and violates international law. 2024 WATCH JUST POSTED — “Biden team launches organizing pilot project in Wisconsin and Arizona,” by WaPo’s Michael Scherer EARLY-STATE ROUNDUP — DeSantis is making a new $2 million ad buy in Iowa from November to January, NBC’s Dasha Burns scooped. His campaign is “the first to reserve airtime in Iowa through the caucuses,” and it reflects his focus on the caucuses despite slipping poll numbers. It’s a major purchase from a campaign that reported just $5 million on hand at the end of September to spend in the primary. NIKKI HALEY is also stepping it up: Her affiliated super PAC “disclosed about $6.6 million in spending in Iowa and New Hampshire on Thursday, its largest advertising purchase yet,” Bloomberg’s Hadriana Lowenkron and Gregory Korte report. MIKE PENCE made it official in Nevada: He is the first GOP candidate to file for the traditional state primary instead of the confusingly parallel caucus set up by the Nevada Republican Party, The Nevada Independent’s Sean Golonka scooped. That means Pence can’t get any Nevada delegates at the convention.
| | | | A message from Amway:   | | | MORE POLITICS
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Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry talks to reporters outside the Supreme Court, Jan. 7, 2022, in Washington. | Evan Vucci/AP | THIS WEEKEND’S BIG ELECTION — Louisiana goes to the polls tomorrow for the gubernatorial “jungle primary” — and hard-right Republican AG JEFF LANDRY looks likely to flip the governor’s mansion in a November runoff, FiveThirtyEight’s Geoffrey Skelley reports. Louisiana Secretary of Transportation SHAWN WILSON seems primed to be Landry’s runoff opponent, but it’ll be tough for him to succeed fellow Democrat JOHN BEL EDWARDS: Landry’s well ahead in polling, fundraising and endorsements, and an outright victory this weekend isn’t out of the question (and would give Republicans a trifecta in the state for the first time in eight years). More top reads:
- Rep. KATIE PORTER’s (D-Calif.) Senate bid raised $3.4 million in the third quarter, per The Messenger’s Matt Holt. That’s barely half of Rep. ADAM SCHIFF’s (D-Calif.) total. He ended the quarter with $20 million more on hand than her.
TRUMP CARDS
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Former President Donald Trump arrives to deliver remarks at a rally on Oct. 11, 2023, in West Palm Beach, Florida. | Alon Skuy/Getty Images | THE FORMER PRESIDENT’S PEERS — Can Trump possibly win over a jury in his federal election subversion trial in D.C., a city that gave him 5% of the vote in 2020? Actually, yes, jury consultants tell Ankush Khardori. Despite Trump’s protestations that he can’t get a fair jury pool here, the professionals say jurors are unpredictable and often focus on surprising details. (Besides, you need to convince only one for a mistrial.) In other Trump trial news, the former president plans to reappear in court next week at his civil business fraud case in NYC, The Messenger’s Marc Caputo and Adam Klasfeld scooped. He’ll fly there straight from Iowa for his first meeting with MICHAEL COHEN in five years. … In the federal criminal classified documents case, Judge AILEEN CANNON chastised prosecutors yesterday “for wasting the court’s time” in a WALT NAUTA hearing, which she delayed until later. More from the AP THE WHITE HOUSE BIG INTERVIEW — Biden sat down with Scott Pelley for a White House interview airing Sunday on CBS’ “60 Minutes” about the Middle East and Ukraine. TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week”: Peter Baker, David Ignatius, Vivian Salama and Amir Tibon. SUNDAY SO FAR … CBS “Face the Nation”: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis … Liz Cheney … Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio). CNN “State of the Union”: Liz Cheney … Nikki Haley. FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Israeli Lt. Col. Peter Lerner … Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) … Ben Sasse. Panel: Richard Fowler, Josh Holmes, Annmarie Hordern and Josh Kraushaar. MSNBC War in Israel breaking news coverage, hosted by Katie Phang and Jonathan Capehart: Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.) … Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.) … Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) … Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.). NBC “Meet the Press”: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) … Arnold Schwarzenegger. Panel: Hallie Jackson, Andrea Mitchell, Toluse Olorunnipa and Dennis Ross. ABC “This Week”: Israeli Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus. Panel: Donna Brazile, Asma Khalid, Reihan Salam and Julie Pace.
| | PLAYBOOKERS | | Benjamin Hall went back to visit the hospital that nursed him back to health. Charles Littlejohn pleaded guilty to leaking Donald Trump’s tax returns. Nadine Arslanian Menendez’s fatal car crash’s records are raising more questions. OUT AND ABOUT — The McCain Institute hosted a dinner in New York last night featuring a discussion between Henry Kissinger and Eric Schmidt on artificial intelligence. SPOTTED: Michael Bloomberg, Mark Esper, Lynn Forester de Rothschild, Evelyn Farkas, Rick Davis, Ronald Lauder, Matthew DesChamps, Jeff Guldner, John Lehman, J. Peter Donald, Ken Mehlman, Heidi Heitkamp, Josette Sheeran and Harry Sloan. TRANSITIONS — Elliott Guffin is now director of federal affairs for Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin. He previously was chief of staff for NRCC Chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C). … Miro Korenha is joining the Wildlife Conservation Society as executive director of executive communication. She previously was a senior comms adviser and speechwriter to the NOAA administrator. … Neal Denton is leaving YMCA of the USA next month after leading its government relations office for 11 years. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Scott Keller, partner at Lehotsky Keller Cohn, and Sarah Isgur, senior editor at The Dispatch and an ABC News contributor, recently welcomed Cavan Walter Keller, who joins big brother Nate. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Second gentleman Doug Emhoff … Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) … Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) … Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s Clarence Wardell … Tiffany Trump (3-0) … Fox News’ Harris Faulkner … Revv’s Gerrit Lansing … Ari Fleischer … FGS Global’s Jack Krumholtz, Nedra Pickler and Gregg Rothschild … Nate Brand … POLITICO’s Ry Rivard and Emily Cadei … The 19th’s Candice Norwood … WaPo’s Alice Crites … K&L Gates’ Dan Crowley … former Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R-Mo.) … NBC’s Rebecca Shabad and Alexis Saunders (3-0) … Sarah Stevens … Carla Sands … Michael Tomasky … Richard Siegel … CAP’s Jerry Parshall … Judy Pino … Jeffrey Kimbell … Christen Linke Young … Daryl Muller … UAW’s Dawn Le … Joanna Burgos … CAPR’s Carrie Adams … Billy Bush … Sarah Callander of Rep. Becca Balint’s (D-Vt.) office (3-0) … Kris Anderson Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producer Bethany Irvine.
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