| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | GOP FLIPS LOUISIANA — New Orleans Times-Picayune: “JEFF LANDRY will be the 57th governor of Louisiana after scoring a surprise outright victory in Saturday’s primary that gives him a mandate to move Louisiana to the right with a like-minded Legislature.”
|  Near the Gaza border, Israeli forces move a tank today at a staging area. | Ohad Zwigenberg/AP Photo | ALL EYES ON GAZA — The world is waiting and watching as the Israeli military readies a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip with the goal of wiping out Hamas. For the first time since 2006, Israel will also seek to “capture land and at least briefly hold onto it,” three senior Israeli officials tell NYT’s Patrick Kingsley and Ronen Bergman. The escalation “risks locking Israel into months of bloody urban combat,” the pair write. The biggest question: “It remains uncertain what Israel will do with Gaza City, Hamas’s stronghold and the enclave’s largest urban center, if it captures it, or what exactly Israeli officials mean when they describe the destruction of Hamas’s leadership. Hamas, considered a terrorist group by the United States and the European Union, is a large social movement as well as a militia that is deeply embedded within Gazan society.” WSJ: “An Israeli airstrike in southern Gaza killed BILLAL AL KEDRA, a Hamas commander responsible for the Kibbutz Nirim massacre, late Saturday, the Israel Defense Forces said Sunday.” ABC: “The Pentagon has ordered a second aircraft carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean near Israel to deter Iran or Hezbollah from joining the Israel-Hamas conflict, according to U.S. officials. “‘I have directed the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group (CSG) to begin moving to the Eastern Mediterranean,’ said Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN in a statement confirming the deployment. ‘As part of our effort to deter hostile actions against Israel or any efforts toward widening this war following Hamas’s attack on Israel.’” THE HUMANITARIAN ANGLE … This morning, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told CNN’s Jake Tapper that Israel had restored water access in southern Gaza, a decision that he said “has been the subject of discussion over the course of the past few days.” ISRAEL KATZ, Israel’s minister of energy, “said the decision to resume water supply to southern Gaza was made during the call between [PM BENJAMIN] NETANYAHU and [JOE] BIDEN on Saturday,” per Axios’ Barak Ravid. AP: “Biden on Saturday spoke with Palestinian President MAHMOUD ABBAS and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, urging the leaders to allow humanitarian aid to the region and affirmed his support for efforts to protect civilians.” WSJ: “A diplomatic effort to evacuate U.S. citizens from Gaza faltered after Egyptian officials said they would only allow foreigners to cross the border if aid could pass in the opposite direction. “Egypt’s refusal on Saturday, confirmed by three officials and in an announcement on state television, thwarted the latest U.S. push to evacuate any of the 500 or more Americans in Gaza wishing to leave through the enclave’s southern border with Egypt.” Reuters: “The Israeli military said on Sunday it would continue to allow Gazans to evacuate south ahead of an expected ground assault by its forces on the Gaza Strip in retaliation for unprecedented attacks by Hamas militants eight days ago.” AP: “Medics in Gaza warned Sunday that thousands could die as hospitals packed with wounded people run desperately low on fuel and basic supplies. Palestinians in the besieged coastal enclave struggled to find food, water and safety ahead of an expected Israeli ground offensive in the war sparked by Hamas’ deadly attack. … “The Gaza Health Ministry said 2,329 Palestinians have been killed since the fighting erupted, more than in the 2014 Gaza war, which lasted over six weeks. That makes this the deadliest of the five Gaza wars for both sides. More than 1,300 Israelis have been killed, the vast majority of them civilians killed in Hamas’ Oct. 7 assault. … “[Gaza’s hospitals] are expected to run out of generator fuel within two days, according to the U.N., which said that that would endanger the lives of thousands of patients.” THE DOMESTIC ANGLE … THE POLLS: Two polls this morning give a better sense of how Americans are feeling about the war between Israel and Hamas. — A CNN poll found that 71% of Americans say “they feel a lot of sympathy” for Israelis. Just 41% feel “a lot” of sympathy for Palestinians. The poll also found that half of those polled say the response from the Israeli government for the terrorist attacks on Oct. 7 are fully justified. Just 8% say it is not justified at all. Republicans are far more likely than Democrats and independents to say Israel’s response was justified. — An ABC News/Ipsos poll found that 54% of Americans approve of Biden’s handling of the war.
| | | | A message from Amway: For decades, Amway has lowered barriers for aspiring entrepreneurs who want to explore small business ownership, without facing the costs of starting a business from scratch. Amway provides high-quality products, online storefronts, a dependable supply chain, top-notch customer care, and a supportive community of entrepreneurs – allowing popular health and wellbeing products to reach customers across the country. Hundreds of thousands of Americans choose to be Amway Independent Business Owners. | | | THE 2024 IMPLICATIONS: — “Trump’s GOP rivals slam his Israel comments. Strategists are skeptical it will change minds,” by WaPo’s Meryl Kornfield: “As several Republican presidential hopefuls hit the campaign trail in recent days, many have sharply criticized former President DONALD TRUMP for his comments about the Middle East. In a speech to his supporters Wednesday, he praised Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militant group, as ‘very smart,’ and in an interview that aired Thursday, he criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as being ‘not prepared’ for Hamas’s recent attack.” His 2024 opponents were quick to jump on the comments as absurd and reckless. But Kornfield reports from town halls in New Hampshire that “while some voters found Trump’s comments problematic, others excused the former president’s language as his typical offhand way of speaking.” — “Nikki Haley, Israel and the Politics of Diplomacy,” by NYT’s Charles Homans: “[Former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. NIKKI] HALEY, one of the few candidates with a foreign policy record to run on, has cast herself as an unwavering Israel hawk whose views are grounded in experience. Last weekend, Ms. Haley urged Mr. Netanyahu to ‘finish’ Hamas. … Ms. Haley, who declined to comment for this article, has seen a recent uptick in polling, although she continues to run far behind Mr. Trump. As a new conflict pushes world affairs to the foreground of the campaign, this may be her best chance to emerge as the leading Republican alternative to the former president.” THE THREAT OF ANTISEMITISM: “FBI director warns of increase in domestic threats related to Middle East conflict,” by Olivia Alafriz: “FBI director CHRISTOPHER WRAY on Saturday said reported domestic threats have surged as conflict in Israel escalates. … ‘History has been witness to antisemitic and other forms of violent extremism for far too long. Whether that be from foreign terrorist organizations, or those inspired by them, or domestic violent extremists motivated by their own racial animus, the targeting of a community because of their faith is completely unacceptable,’ Wray said in his prepared remarks at the International Association of Chiefs of Police conference in San Diego.” SCHUMER SHELTERS — Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER, who traveled to Israel this weekend, tweeted out a picture, saying his “delegation was rushed to a shelter to wait out rockets sent by Hamas. It shows you what Israelis have to go through. We must provide Israel with the support required to defend itself.” Sen. MITT ROMNEY (R-Utah) can also be seen in the pic. Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. SUNDAY BEST … — Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) announcing a new Middle East trip on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “I will be going to Saudi Arabia and Israel in the coming days with a group of senators. The drive to peace and normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel continues. … Here’s my message to our friends in Egypt: Open up. Allow Gaza residents to go into the Sinai.” — Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) on the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, on “Fox News Sunday”: “As far as I’m concerned, Israel can bounce the rubble in Gaza. Anything that happens in Gaza is the responsibility of Hamas. Hamas killed women and children in Israel last weekend. If women and children die in Gaza, it will be because Hamas is using them as human shields.” — Rep. DAN CRENSHAW (R-Texas) on House Republicans’ speaker struggle, on “State of the Union”: “Well, it’s not good. There’s no positive messages here. I don’t want to give everybody the impression that it’s a giant crisis, either. And I know it sometimes feels that way. This is democracy. Democracy is always pretty messy. I think what the real problem is is that we’ve allowed a different process of democracy to take hold within our own conference, which is that majority doesn’t rule.” — House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES on working with Republicans for a bipartisan speaker selection, on “Meet the Press”: “There are informal conversations that have been underway. When we get back to Washington tomorrow, it’s important to begin to formalize those discussions.” TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.
- “I Hope Someone Somewhere Is Being Kind to My Boy,” by Rachel Goldberg for NYT
- “X Is a Fog-of-War Machine,” by Scott Nover for Slate
- “Woke Is Dying — Long Live the New Center,” by Sohrab Ahmari for Compact
- “How Netanyahu’s political calculations resulted in catastrophe,” by Shlomo Ben-Ami for the L.A. Times
- “The Underappreciated Third-Party Threats to Biden,” by The Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter
- “The Israeli Crisis Is Testing Biden’s Core Foreign-Policy Claim,” by Ronald Brownstein for The Atlantic
- “Now Is the Moment for Biden’s Age to Be an Asset,” by Lydia Polgreen for NYT
- “The End of America’s Exit Strategy in the Middle East,” by Suzanne Maloney for Foreign Affairs
- “There Is a Jewish Hope for Palestinian Liberation. It Must Survive,” by Peter Beinart for NYT
- “Dismantling Iowa,” by Marilynne Robinson for the New York Review
- “Local Newspapers Are Vanishing. How Should We Remember Them?” by Daniel Golden for ProPublica
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Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) is mustering grassroots support to become House speaker. But his success is far from assured. | Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images | 9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR 1. THE PATH TO 217: Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) and his allies are working furiously over the weekend to try to flip dozens of House GOP holdouts to support him for the speakership, with hopes of going to the floor Tuesday, Jordain Carney and Nick Wu report. The bullying has ramped up, as Jordan supporters activate “a right-wing pressure campaign” to win him the necessary votes, threatening consequences with the party’s base for those who don’t get on board, NYT’s Karoun Demirjian reports. The Ohioan’s grassroots support is the reason Jordan thinks this time will be different, per WSJ’s Lindsay Wise. But his success is far from assured. The step back: “Some House Republicans try to change the rules so losers become winners,” by WaPo’s Paul Kane: “Once obsessed with the ‘majority of the majority,’ the House GOP is now ruled by small minority factions.” 2. MIKE PENCE NONE THE RICHER: “Mounting debt threatens Mike Pence’s campaign,” by NBC’s Dasha Burns and Scott Bland: “The campaign told NBC News it will report having raised $3.3 million in the third quarter, with $1.2 million cash on hand and $620,000 in debt, when its campaign finance filing is due to be made public Sunday. [MIKE] PENCE himself chipped in $150,000 from his personal funds … Pence’s numbers reveal a campaign under serious strain, operating on completely different financial terrain from that of his rivals, and they raise questions about his ability to continue to compete.” On the flip side, CHRIS CHRISTIE’s campaign has $3.9 million and zero debt, likely giving him the space to get to the New Hampshire primary, Axios’ Alex Thompson reports. 3. CASH DASH: The Biden reelect, DNC and associated joint fundraising committees collectively raised $71 million in the third quarter, they announced today. “It’s a large, though not record-breaking, amount,” Holly Otterbein reports, “that has allowed Biden to launch a major TV and digital advertising campaign earlier than past presidents’ reelection efforts.” For context, that total means Biden has far outstripped his Republican competitors in the third quarter — but it also puts him behind what Trump raised at this point in his 2020 reelection bid. Because the Biden campaign is running a tight ship, the Dem groups had $91 million in the bank heading into the fourth quarter. But Biden’s spending has also ramped way up. 4. DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE: “‘Big Jim’ and Babydog Go to Washington?” by NYT’s Campbell Robertson: West Virginia Gov. JIM JUSTICE’s “political style has an air of familiarity — a populist tycoon with a flair for showmanship and an indifference to governing norms — and it has proved particularly magnetic in West Virginia … Reporters have traced the blurred lines between Mr. Justice’s public endeavors and private family empire while also chronicling the empire’s perpetual delinquency … For many voters, though, little of this seems to matter. They just seem to like him.”
| | | | A message from Amway:   | | | 5. TOMORROW’S BIG HEARING: In Trump’s federal criminal election subversion case, Judge TANYA CHUTKAN will hold a hearing tomorrow on prosecutors’ request for a partial gag order on the former president. It’s just one of many examples of Trump’s campaign-trail behavior interfering with his legal strategies, as WaPo’s Devlin Barrett, Josh Dawsey, Shane Harris and Spencer Hsu report. On the flip side, his “bombastic diatribes are also giving prosecutors new material that could be used at trial” — meaning that if special counsel JACK SMITH gets his way on a gag order, his team could actually “lose one of their best sources of incriminating information.” When she was first assigned the Trump case, Chutkan privately told a friend, “Please pray for me,” NYT’s Robert Draper reports in a new profile of the judge from Kingston. He finds a history of a “commanding presence in the courtroom, a reflection of her extensive trial experience and an upbringing in a prominent Jamaican family. Unfamiliar to the spotlight though she may be, Judge Chutkan has shown little sign of being intimidated by it.” 6. DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS: “Biden’s team to announce new export limits on AI chips to China,” by Axios’ Hans Nichols: “The rules, issued by the Commerce Department, are designed to close loopholes on export controls it announced a year ago, and apply them to chips that are slightly less powerful than those covered under the initial guidelines — but still have advanced capabilities.” 7. DOMINION OVER THE OLD DOMINION: The Virginia statehouse elections are kicking into high gear in the last few weeks of the campaign, with DNC Chair JAIME HARRISON the latest national Democrat to jump in, per ABC’s Laura Romero. And Gov. GLENN YOUNGKIN is deploying a strategy that could be a blueprint for Republicans elsewhere if it works: talking about abortion head on, trying to put Democrats on the defensive by calling them extreme for opposing any restrictions, Zach Montellaro reports from Richmond. “They are betting big on this new tactic: Republicans have recently launched a major $1.4 million ad buy to make that case,” hoping they can counter Democratic attacks and redirect voters to crime and the economy. 8. SCRAMBLING FOR SECOND PLACE: “‘Get in the Game’: G.O.P. Candidates Plead Their Case to Major Donors,” by NYT’s Shane Goldmacher, Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan: “From Dallas to Park City, Utah, top Republican donors gathered behind closed doors this week … For those donors who aren’t [sitting it out], the choice has increasingly narrowed to Gov. RON DeSANTIS of Florida and Ms. Haley … Senator TIM SCOTT of South Carolina is a factor as well.” A couple of notable nuggets in the story: Scott’s team said he ended the third quarter with $11.6 million available to use in the primary, more than the others. Haley said she has $9.1 million. … DeSantis’ Never Back Down super PAC is planning an ad campaign attacking Haley for the first time. 9. OH, CANADA: There’s a different kind of border tough talk emerging in the GOP presidential primary: Campaigning in New Hampshire, VIVEK RAMASWAMY, DeSantis and Haley are talking about protecting the northern boundary with Canada, The Messenger’s Stephanie Murray reports from Nashua. “Declaring a national emergency at the Canadian border crackdown would be unusual … But New Hampshire voters have shifted their views on immigration over the last six years,” especially with a focus on stopping fentanyl.
| | | | PLAYBOOK IS GOING GLOBAL! We’re excited to introduce Global Playbook, POLITICO’s premier newsletter that brings you inside the most important conversations at the most influential events in the world. From the buzzy echoes emanating from the snowy peaks at the WEF in Davos to the discussions and personalities at Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to the heart of diplomacy at UNGA in New York City – author Suzanne Lynch brings it all to your fingertips. Experience the elite. Witness the influential. And never miss a global beat. BE PART OF THE CONVERSATION. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Liz Truss hung out with Ted Cruz. George Santos seems to have his Taylor Swift albums mixed up. Lauren Boebert raised $854,000 in the third quarter. Vivek Ramaswamy got roasted by a New Hampshire voter. Hunter Biden is an “ironic icon” now. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The progressive communications firm Fireside Campaigns has laid off all its employees after running into serious financial distress, three people familiar with the matter told Daniel Lippman. The firm, whose partners include Brad Bauman and Pili Tobar, has worked for numerous blue-chip clients like the DCCC, Bob Menendez, Suzan DelBene, Hillary Scholten and Conor Lamb and other liberal causes like Black Lives Matter. About 20 employees were told earlier this month that the firm was in a financially untenable situation and that Oct. 31 was the last day of their employment, two of the people said. One of the people said that the firm is undergoing a “radical restructuring” and is unlikely to exist in its current form going forward. Bauman, the firm’s CEO and managing partner, declined to comment. TRANSITION — Sarah Mucha is now a director of public affairs at SKDK. She previously was a politics reporter at Axios, and is a CNN alum. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: NBC’s Jon Allen … White House’s Erica Loewe … Lis Smith … HUD’s Anna Farías … Jenni Pierotti Lim … Brian Walsh of Red Elephant Strategy … Heather Caygle … John Doty of House Judiciary/Rep. Jerry Nadler’s (D-N.Y.) office … Mark Bednar … Liz Kenigsberg of SKDK … John “J.B.” Byrd of Miller/Wenhold Capitol Strategies … Jose Villalvazo of Sen. Alex Padilla’s (D-Calif.) office … Stu Loeser … Casey Harper of The Center Square … Christy Setzer of New Heights Communications … Jim McFeely of Rep. Rob Menendez’s (D-N.J.) office … John Martin of Smith & Nephew … Nippon TV’s Takaaki Abe … Susan Ralston … former Reps. Rush Holt (D-N.J.) and Jim Leach (R-Iowa) … Haim Saban … Bill Hoagland … Gigi Stone Woods … Liz Sears Smith of Kent Strategies … Chris Godbey … Stat’s Rick Berke … Meaghan Byrne … Ken Griffin Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
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