| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING — “Trump on Liz Cheney: ‘Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her,’” by Adam Wren: Speaking at an event in Glendale, Arizona, “DONALD TRUMP suggested he would like to see how LIZ CHENEY would fare ‘with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her.’” What Trump said: “She’s a radical war hawk — let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, OK? And let’s see how she feels about it, you know, when the guns are trained on her face.” Cheney responds: “This is how dictators destroy free nations. They threaten those who speak against them with death,” she posted moments ago. FLY ON THE BLUE WALL — Overnight, Marist delivered some good news for VP KAMALA HARRIS among likely voters in the three northern battleground states. She’s +2 over Trump in Pennsylvania, +3 in Michigan and +2 in Wisconsin. GARBAGE IN, GARBAGE OUT — The White House is headed for its fourth straight “garbage” day: Last night, the AP scooped that top Biden communications officials doctored the official transcript of the Zoom call where President JOE BIDEN “appeared to take a swipe at supporters of Donald Trump.” They added an apostrophe that changed the meaning of what Biden said, and they did so over objections from the head of the stenographers’ office, who “called the press office’s handling of the matter ‘a breach of protocol.’” White knuckles in Wilmington: Biden is scheduled to speak this afternoon in Philadelphia, where he’ll talk about his administration’s “historic support for unions.” Will he make it through without triggering another unwelcome distraction for Democrats?
|  Both the Harris and Trump campaigns project confidence about what they’re seeing with the early vote. | Mike Catalini/AP | FOUR DAYS OF ANXIETY — If you’re anything like us — and we suspect you are, seeing as you’re spending your morning devouring a newsletter about politics — you’re probably spending a fair amount of time in these anxious days looking at any and every sign of how the presidential race is going to turn out. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast? Trump, 53 times out of 100. The NYT polling average? Harris, by one point. NATE SILVER’s model? Trump, 55 percent of the time. The S&P 500? Harris . Political gambling platforms like Polymarket? Trump. Voter enthusiasm? Harris by a whisker, per Gallup. Right track/wrong track? Trump. Net favorability rating? Harris. And then there’s the early vote. As of this writing, some 65,080,179 ballots have already been cast, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab. Agonizingly, we have to wait until Tuesday to start getting results. But that hasn’t stopped the pre-spin. Both campaigns project confidence about what they’re seeing (though, honestly, would you expect them to do anything else?).
- Trump world’s spin: “President Trump’s position nationally and in every single Battleground State is SIGNIFICANTLY better today than it was 4 years ago,” TONY FABRIZIO, Trump’s chief pollster, wrote in a memo the campaign circulated last night . “While the analysis of early and absentee vote returns in each state are promising, we know that the bulk of President Trump voters will vote on Election Day. So, our continued efforts to turnout our voters are crucial.”
- Harris world’s spin: “Our sense is that … the people who’ve made up their mind in the last week, we’re doing quite well with,” DAVID PLOUFFE, Harris’ senior adviser and strategy sherpa, told CNN’s Anderson Cooper. “And we like the people who’ve yet to make a decision in terms of who they look like from a data perspective and what they self-report in terms of who they’re likely to vote for. In the early vote so far, we are on pace in all seven states to reach the number we think we need, combined with Election Day turnout.”
Behind those zen exteriors, both campaigns are angstier than a Dashboard Confessional song, and the early vote trends provide plenty of fuel. — The Trump camp has concerns about Pennsylvania, Meridith McGraw and Jessica Piper write , because Trump seems to be lagging Harris among early votes from “a critical and once-reliably Republican constituency: seniors.” Among early voters ages 65+, “registered Democrats account for about 58 percent of votes cast [so far] by seniors, compared to 35 percent for Republicans. That’s despite both parties having roughly equal numbers of registered voters aged 65 and older.” But, but, but: “The partisan gap is narrower than it was in 2020, when views of early voting were more partisan, and Republicans take that as a good sign.” — A good trend for Trump in Arizona: There are signs of an influx of “new male Republican voters in Arizona,” NBC News’ Josh Clinton and John Lapinski report. Overall in the state, the “number of new voters (86,231 as of Tuesday) is more than eight times the Biden-Trump margin in 2020 in Arizona. And the biggest share of that group of new voters in Arizona so far are male Republicans.” — Good signs for Harris in Michigan: Based on the early vote so far, Detroit’s clerk projects that turnout in the city will be in the 53-55 percent range, surpassing 2016 and 2020 levels — which is likely good news for Democrats, the Detroit News’ Beth LeBlanc, Grant Schwab and Louis Aguilar report. Also good news for Dems: “Female voters represented about 55% of ballots cast as of Thursday, compared to roughly 44% from men.” — Bad sign for Dems in Nevada: “[F]or the first time in The [HARRY] REID Machine Era (2008 and forward), the Republicans are the ones banking votes in a presidential year,” the Nevada Independent’s Jon Ralston writes in his authoritative early voting blog . “So the analysis is the opposite of what it usually is: Can the Dems overcome the deficit and what would that look like in the models?” — Evidence of a rural red wave in Georgia: “The highest early voting turnout in Georgia isn’t in Democratic strongholds such as DeKalb County or the fiercely contested suburbs that surround metro Atlanta,” Greg Bluestein reports for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution . “It’s in sparsely populated rural counties where Republicans often reign supreme.” A smart word of caution from Dave Wasserman: This doesn't “tell us who will win GA, just that Dems have more work to do than Rs to turn out their vote in the final days.” — Writ large: “Polls show Harris with big early-vote lead — despite GOP gains,” as WaPo’s Aaron Blake writes WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN? Eugene sat down with two of 2024’s rising stars in the election-modeling world to talk it through for Playbook Deep Dive: LAKSHYA JAIN of Split Ticket and LOGAN PHILLIPS of Race to the White House. Their advice? Touch grass.
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| “I always say that the early vote exists as a means for people to validate their priors and little else,” says Jain. “Think about how many crazy headlines you've seen with the early vote in the last few cycles. People said in 2016 [in] North Carolina, this could actually just turn the election into a formality because Clinton is banking enough votes to secure the state before Election [Day]. They said this in 2020 … Texas would be blue based on the early vote.” Yes, the GOP is seeing a surge in early voting compared to 2020, notes Phillips. But there’s a good reason for that: “Trump isn't telling everyone not to do it anymore.” Early voting “can tell us something about the story of the electorate and what it might look like,” says Phillips. “We just can’t read too much from a prediction standpoint. Like, we can see that, to a degree, the GOP has achieved their strategic goal of trying to get more people to use early voting. And … there has been some encouraging turnout for women for Democrats, and if women turn out a higher number than men, that could easily be the election.” That’s not to say you should totally ignore the uncounted early votes; just know the limits of what they tell us. “You shouldn’t think of voters as early voters, mail voters or in-person voters,” advises Jain. “You should think of them as Harris or Trump voters.” For more, check out Playbook Deep Dive on Apple Podcasts or Spotify Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook, especially to our red-headed readers out there. How are you spending the last weekend of the election? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels.
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Click here & learn more. | | | SPEAKING OF EARLY VOTERS — Trump won’t vote early, though he previously said he would, AP’s Adriana Gomez Licon and Jill Colvin report. TALK OF THIS TOWN — Michael Schaffer’s latest Capital City column: “The One Thing Democrats Won’t Call Elon Musk: Un-American” STAT OF THE DAY — On every single day of the home stretch of this campaign, Harris has outpaced Trump when it comes to attracting new donors, Jessica Piper reports this morning. Between Sept. 1 and Oct. 16, Harris’ camp brought in an average of more than 43,000 new contributors every day. By contrast, Trump averaged about 13,000 per day. FIRST IN POLITICO: EUROPE’S GREENS CALL ON STEIN TO WITHDRAW — The European Greens and all the major national Green parties of Europe are calling on JILL STEIN to pull out of the presidential race and endorse Harris, our colleague Jakob Hanke Vela reports . “We are clear that Kamala Harris is the only candidate who can block Donald Trump and his anti-democratic, authoritarian policies from the White House,” the Greens warn in a statement shared exclusively with POLITICO. Read the full letter
| | | | A message from BlackRock:   Discover the top challenges workers face in saving for retirement in BlackRock's latest episode. Learn from 6 key stats in our Read on Retirement® survey. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House and the Senate are out. What we’re watching … When Trump last won a presidential election, three House Democrats rose on Jan. 6, 2017, and tried unsuccessfully to object to certification of his victory. Should Trump win again this year, however, don’t expect a repeat: As Kyle Cheney reports , a wide array of Democrats are pledging to respect the results of the election and certify a legitimate Trump victory next Jan. 6 — even though many of them have argued that he is ineligible to serve under the 14th Amendment’s insurrection clause. Democrats’ emphasis on the peaceful transfer of power following the violence of Jan. 6, 2021, has essentially made it untenable for them to even make a symbolic protest; they’re instead promising to certify the election “without drama or consequences,” as House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES put it in September. At the White House Biden will travel to Philadelphia, where he’ll speak about his administration’s support for unions at 4:30 p.m. Then he’ll head to Wilmington, Delaware. On the trail Harris will travel from Las Vegas to Wisconsin, where she’ll speak at a union hall in Janesville at 3:40 p.m. Eastern, and a GOTV event in Little Chute at 7:05 p.m. Then she’ll travel to West Allis for a rally and concert at 10:20 p.m. with GLORILLA, FLO MILLI, MC LYTE, THE ISLEY BROTHERS, DJ GEMINI GILLY and CARDI B. Trump will hold rallies in Warren, Michigan, at 4:30 p.m. and Milwaukee at 9 p.m. Eastern. Per AP’s Joey Cappelletti, he’ll also make what could be a high-profile visit to Dearborn. Sen. JD VANCE (R-Ohio) will hold rallies in Portage, Michigan, at 1 p.m. and Selma, North Carolina, at 5 p.m. Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ will take part in political/campaign events in Detroit in the early afternoon, before holding rallies in Flint, Michigan, at 3:25 p.m. and Traverse City at 6:45 p.m. He’ll fly to Las Vegas at night.
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Kamala Harris derided Donald Trump at her rallies for saying that he would protect women. | Angelina Katsanis/POLITICO | DIVINING WOMEN — The electorate’s gender gap has long been a defining feature of this campaign. But yesterday, sniping over women and gender burst to the fore of the race, as each camp slammed the other for viral comments. Harris derided Trump at her rallies for saying that he would protect women, “whether the women like it or not.” She told NBC’s Yamiche Alcindor and Megan Lebowitz in Phoenix that it was the latest in a long line of actions showing that Trump “devalues” women and their personal freedoms. WaPo’s Tatum Hunter has an interesting story about Trump’s infamous “grab them by the pussy” audio newly going viral on TikTok with Gen Z voters who were too young to absorb it in 2016. On the flip side, the Trump campaign seized on MARK CUBAN saying on “The View” that “you never see [Trump] around strong, intelligent women ever,” per Brittany Gibson. White female voters could be the most consequential demographic of the race, and Democrats are pushing against resistance to try to sway enough of them to Harris, NYT’s Erica Green reports from Pennsylvania. RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE KEYS TO THE KEYSTONE STATE — A barrage of litigation continued yesterday as Republicans went to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court over counting mail ballots, per the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette; Justice SAMUEL ALITO turned down CORNEL WEST’s polling-location request, per CBS; and the Philly challenge to ELON MUSK’s $1 million giveaways was moved to federal court, per the AP. Trump and Vance both ramped up false attacks on the integrity of the state’s election, per the NYT. In Lackawanna County, election lies have made it hard for people to agree on basic reality and truth, The New Yorker’s Clare Malone captures . But state officials have long been preparing for threats of disruption and people trying to “stop the steal,” The New Yorker’s Eliza Griswold reports. DISINFORMATION DIGEST — Georgia officials warned yesterday that a viral, false allegation of voter fraud was circulating online, likely originating with Russia, per Reuters’ Kanishka Singh. Secretary of State BRAD RAFFENSPERGER’s office explicitly asked Musk to remove it from X. Federal officials are investigating. OFF THE BEATEN TRACK — Trump campaigned in likely blue New Mexico yesterday to tout his growing support from Latinos and other traditionally Democratic groups, Natalie Allison reports. “New Mexico, look, don’t make me waste a whole damn half a day here,” he said. JUST VANCE — In a lengthy interview on JOE ROGAN’s podcast, Vance expressed doubt about vaccines, said he doesn’t like the idea of women being arrested for traveling to get abortions and talked a lot about transgender issues, Mia McCarthy recaps. Vance opined that well-off kids may be identifying as trans to get into elite colleges (!) that he and Trump could win the “normal gay guy vote.” He shared his experience of Trump’s assassination attempt. And in perhaps his most controversial comment, he called Netflix’s “Emily in Paris” a masterpiece. GET SOME COFFEE — Milwaukee officials said they’ll likely be counting votes until 2 or 3 a.m. on election night, per WITI-TV’s Ben Handelman. STILL WAITING — Trump still hasn’t deployed NIKKI HALEY on the campaign trail, Meridith McGraw flags. RACE FOR THE HOUSE BIG BOOST FOR MIKE LAWLER — The critical Hasidic bloc of New Square will endorse and turn out thousands of votes for the New York Republican, Jewish Insider’s Matthew Kassel reports. CALIFORNIA DREAMIN’ — “In scramble to flip another district blue, Democrats hope Rep. Kiley is too MAGA for Sacramento suburbs,” by the L.A. Times’ Mackenzie Mays in Rocklin RACE FOR THE SENATE WILD CARD — “‘Not a Democrat’: Why Dems aren’t helping the independent in the Nebraska Senate race,” by Jordain Carney in Lincoln POLL POSITION National: Trump +2, per AtlasIntel. Trump +3, per J.L. Partners/Daily Mail. Tied, per TIPP. … Pennsylvania: Trump +5 (!), per Echelon Insights. Trump +2, per AtlasIntel. … Wisconsin: Tied, per Echelon. Tied, per AtlasIntel. … Michigan: Tied, per Echelon. Trump +1, per AtlasIntel. … North Carolina: Trump +4, per AtlasIntel. … Georgia: Trump +2, per AtlasIntel. … Arizona: Trump +4 and KARI LAKE +1 (!), per AtlasIntel. … Nevada: Trump +4, per AtlasIntel.
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|  New reporting is pulling back the curtain on Donald Trump's key personnel and policy moves that could reshape the country. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | TRUMP’S BIG PLANS — As Trump gets close to a potential return to the White House, tons of new reporting is pulling back the curtain on his key personnel and policy moves that could reshape the country: — Justice Department: Without a Senate-confirmed AG yet in place, Trump would need to select someone from a limited pool to take over DOJ on Day One and implement his dictator-for-a-day plans, Josh Gerstein explains in a must-read piece. From payback against political enemies (JACK SMITH, the Bidens) to mass deportations or a travel ban to civil service job protections, Trump will need DOJ sign-off on quite a lot, quickly. Josh flags ANDREW FERGUSON, CURTIS GANNON, PRIM ESCALONA and JOSEPH CUFFARI as potential contenders for acting AG. — ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.: The competitor-turned-ally is eyeing a prominent role in the Trump administration. NBC’s Dasha Burns and Berkeley Lovelace Jr. scooped that the campaign is currently considering tapping him to oversee the fight against chronic childhood disease. WaPo’s Dan Diamond, Lauren Weber, Josh Dawsey, Michael Scherer and Rachel Roubein report that Kennedy might take a White House role on health and food safety, with even Cabinet officials reporting to him. The rumors have the agriculture industry and lobbyists rushing to prepare for radical changes, Marcia Brown, Grace Yarrow and Brittany Gibson report. — Foreign policy: Though Trump has stayed away from many foreign-policy specifics, outside plans from Project 2025 and the America First Policy Institute envision a potential mass dismantling of federal policy infrastructure, WaPo’s Karen DeYoung and Michael Birnbaum report. State Department officials fear that whole branches could be eradicated. And looking back at Trump’s first term, NYT’s David Sanger zeroes in on Trump’s unpredictability: His election would “almost certainly mark a return to an era of foreign policy decrees, untethered to any policy process, at a moment of maximum international peril.” — Immigration: Despite Trump’s campaign rhetoric that he welcomes legal immigration, STEPHEN MILLER and other allies are preparing big plans to slash the pathways and numbers for legal immigrants, WSJ’s Michelle Hackman reports. MEDIAWATCH HEADS UP — The Trump campaign filed a long-shot $10 billion federal lawsuit against CBS News over its editing of Harris’ “60 Minutes” interview, which the network says was standard procedure, Fox News’ Brooke Singman scooped. It was filed — where else? — in Amarillo, Texas, home of District Judge MATTHEW KACSMARYK.
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Obamacare has returned to the center of political debates in recent days, thanks to comments from Speaker Mike Johnson. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | OBAMACARE IN THE SPOTLIGHT — Today marks the beginning of 2025 sign-ups for health insurance via the Affordable Care Act markets, AP’s Amanda Seitz reports. The open enrollment period will run through Jan. 15. It’s quite the timing as Obamacare has returned to the center of political debates in recent days, thanks to comments from Speaker MIKE JOHNSON. Democrats would love to focus on the ACA, which has grown more popular with time and helped them flip the House in 2018. House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES seized on Johnson’s remarks to warn about Republicans gaining power, per USA Today’s Riley Beggin . The policy stakes of the election are significant, with crucial Obamacare subsidies due to expire next year. But Trump distanced himself somewhat from Johnson’s pledge in New Mexico yesterday, per the WSJ: “[Harris] says I want to end Obamacare and take away your health care — that’s a lie — if we come up with something better that will be great, and everybody wants that because Obamacare sort of sucks.” (Of course, Trump did try to end Obamacare as president.) AMERICA AND THE WORLD DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — As North Korea moves to boost Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, U.S. officials have urged China (which may be uneasy about Pyongyang-Moscow ties) to step in and oppose it, NYT’s Edward Wong reports. CONGRESS 2025 DREAMING — Rep. RAÚL GRIJALVA (D-Ariz.) wants to remain the top Democrat on House Natural Resources next term, but other Dems on the panel are raising concerns about his absences due to illness, NOTUS’ Mark Alfred, Samuel Larreal and Matt Fuller report. Some members say they’ve hardly been able to communicate with Grijalva for much of the year, and they see Rep. JARED HUFFMAN (D-Calif.) as a better option. But Grijalva isn’t backing down. COULD ANDREW CUOMO BE IN TROUBLE? — Despite a criminal referral from House Republicans, “former federal prosecutors, congressional investigators and defense lawyers said on Thursday that Mr. Cuomo was unlikely to face prosecution,” NYT’s Nicholas Fandos reports. TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week”: Peter Baker, McKay Coppins, Eugene Daniels and Vivian Salama. SUNDAY SO FAR … FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) … Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.). Panel: Brit Hume, Karl Rove, Jessica Tarlov and Juan Williams. MSNBC “Inside with Jen Psaki”: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) … Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. ABC “This Week”: Martha Raddatz, Jonathan Karl, Rick Klein, Pierre Thomas, Mary Bruce, Rachel Scott, Donna Brazile, Chris Christie and Reince Priebus. CNN “State of the Union”: Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) … Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.). Panel: David Axelrod, David Urban, Bakari Sellers and Kristen Soltis Anderson. CBS “Face the Nation”: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) … Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) … Chris Krebs … David Becker … Samantha Vinograd. NBC “Meet the Press”: Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) … North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. Panel: Jen Psaki, Cristina Londoño Rooney, Marc Short and Chuck Todd.
| | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | | Tucker Carlson said he was mauled “by a demon.” Barack Obama helped phone-bank for Angela Alsobrooks. Janet Yellen met a lookalike. Ralph Nader isn’t happy about the Yankees. TRANSITIONS — Lauren Camp is now account executive at Cozen O’Connor Public Strategies’ comms practice. She most recently was press secretary for the House Oversight Committee under Chair James Comer (R-Ky.). … Samantha Fernandez is joining Trident DMG as a director. She previously was a senior account manager at Pinkston. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Nasim Fussell, an SVP at Lot Sixteen, and Tripp Fussell, a partner at Mayer Brown, on Tuesday welcomed Caden James Fussell, who joins big siblings Lyla and Kaia. Instapic … Another pic — Steve Pfrang, VP at BGR Group, and Rebecca Shaw, SVP at Avoq, welcomed Caroline Louise Pfrang yesterday morning. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), María Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) and Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) … Apple’s Tim Cook … Charles Koch … David Bossie of Citizens United … Senate Chaplain Barry Black … Katie Walsh Shields ... Vanessa Morrone Ambrosini … NYT’s Carlos Lozada … Megan Wilson … Jess Andrews … Business Roundtable’s Liz Dougherty … DOD’s Suzanne Zurn … Grace Bellone … Clare Steinberg … Chloe Taylor of HawkPartners … Bill Deere of the UNRWA … Leslie Pollner … John Stipicevic … CNN’s Marshall Cohen … Alex Byers … former Reps. Bruce Poliquin (R-Maine) and John Spratt (D-S.C.) … Liz Bowman … Cami Bissen … American Conservation Coalition’s Lucero Cantu … Sarakshi Rai of The Hill … Matthew Palmisano of Axiom Strategies … Prolegis’ Gregg Nunziata, Peter Durkin and Kendra Morgan … Mary Doocy … Anthony DeAngelo … Frederick Bell … John Oxtoby of Ariel Investments … Tyler Hernandez Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook mistakenly included Alana Goodman on the birthday list.
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