| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | ON ONE HAND — The voters of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, have swung toward DONALD TRUMP: After breaking 5-0 for JOE BIDEN in 2020, Trump eked out a 3-3 tie in the early morning tally from the tiny mountain hamlet. ON THE OTHER — KAMALA HARRIS took a hair’s-breadth lead overnight in the final Nate Silver forecast, becoming a favorite (by less than one-tenth of a percentage point) for the first time since Oct. 16. Writes Silver, “the race is literally closer than a coin flip: empirically, heads wins 50.5 percent of the time, more than Harris’s 50.015 percent.” IN REALITY — “America’s political experts brace for the most unpredictable election of their careers,” by Megan Messerly and Zach Montellaro: “Never in modern political history has there been so much uncertainty heading into Election Day — with such a wide array of possible outcomes.”
|  Election official Anthony Salinger removes a sign outside the polling site at Ford Community and Performing Arts Center as early in-person voting comes to an end, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, in Dearborn, Mich. | David Goldman/AP | FINALLY SOME ANSWERS — The rallies are over. The ads have all aired. The doors have been knocked. And now we wait. This campaign has been flipped on its head more times than we can count, but it ended last night in a very familiar place. Trump yesterday took his signature rhetorical weave to the battleground states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Michigan, where he — among other things — fantasized about Harris physically fighting MIKE TYSON, mused about a gladiator-style fighting league for migrants, then called Green Party nominee JILL STEIN “one of my favorite politicians” and former Speaker NANCY PELOSI an unnamed label that “ starts with a B.” While Trump stuck to the off-message meandering that has endeared him to a fiercely loyal base, Harris ground her way through Pennsylvania with a tightly scripted series of stops that ended with a celeb-studded rally in Philly — one simulcast with gatherings in six other states. We took it all in from the “Rocky” steps, both the crowd’s anxious energy and Harris’ careful final words, which didn't directly mention Trump at all. It was an upbeat speech with a businesslike point: Make a plan to vote, and bring your family and friends. But will that relative discipline be enough to win? That’s just one of the thousand questions we’ll finally get answers to over the next couple of days. And while we could spend this entire newsletter laying all of them out, we wanted to throw it over to our colleagues who have been covering the election just as obsessively as us to learn what questions they’re hoping will get answered tonight: National political reporter NATALIE ALLISON … — By how much does Trump outrun MARK ROBINSON in North Carolina? Polling has consistently shown JOSH STEIN beating Robinson by 15, even 20 points in the governor’s race. But I’m not totally convinced that the final margins will be quite that massive. I spoke to a Republican on Monday who went in not planning to vote for Robinson but ended up just saying, “What the hell?” California bureau chief CHRISTOPHER CADELAGO … — Did Harris do enough to distance herself from Biden and his unpopularity? While her 100-plus day candidacy in so many ways represented a historic break from the incumbent, the obvious differences of race, gender and generation might not have been enough for some voters to see her as a turn-the-page candidate. Harris played a difficult hand dexterously, but did she need to be bolder in drawing clear contrasts with her boss? White House correspondent ADAM CANCRYN … — How much is voters’ behavior driven by anger over a bout of near-record inflation that nevertheless peaked more than two years ago? Democrats’ longstanding theory has been that voters’ frustration over inflation would fade, replaced by a more forward-looking focus on specific cost-of-living issues like housing and health care. I’ll be watching if exit polls show her battling Trump to a tie (or even narrow loss) on the issue. Economics correspondent and columnist VICTORIA GUIDA … — How do markets react to the election results? Investors have been generally positioning their money for a Trump win, so if it looks like that is in fact the case, it will be notable if bond rates rise on fears of inflation due to potential higher tariffs and fewer immigrant workers. And if the results are leaning toward Harris, I’ll be watching whether that depresses stocks significantly, or investors just shrug because they expect the status quo will largely continue. Global editor-in-chief JOHN F. HARRIS … — Is Trump’s support tethered even slightly to historical standards of behavior for presidential nominees? We know that his support is mostly impervious to traditional codes. Still, I did not expect a closing argument based entirely on themes of division and disdain, with no nods to unifying the country. He threw in an obscene gesture with a microphone for good measure. Trump evidently believes there are only rewards and no penalties for such behavior, and he’s been proven right in this bet before. If he performs lower than the most recent polls in swing states, and especially if exit polls show the flight of women voters from him is even greater than in the past, we will know that he miscalculated this time. Politics bureau chief and senior political columnist JONATHAN MARTIN … — Can a senator still win in a state his or her party loses in the presidential race (looking at you, SHERROD BROWN)? Was Trump’s stumble to the finish line enough to lift Harris in North Carolina or Georgia? Is the surprise Senate winner COLIN ALLRED, SAM BROWN or DAN OSBORN (and if none of the above, which one comes closest)? National political correspondent MERIDITH McGRAW … — What’s happening in Georgia? Since early and absentee votes there will be reported by 8 p.m., the Peach State could give us some early clues for where the night is heading. I’ll be closely watching what happened to all those NIKKI HALEY voters. Trump did not end up campaigning with Haley, despite Harris’ play for her primary supporters and his own struggle with female voters. The Atlanta suburbs will tell the tale. National political reporter MEGAN MESSERLY … — Is there a significant realignment happening? I’ve spent a lot of time in the Sun Belt, where you get the sense that Latino voters, Black voters and younger voters are shifting to the right. Is it as significant as the Trump campaign has suggested? Or have these voters, as the Harris campaign has indicated, consolidated around the VP in the final days? I’ll be looking at Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina for the answer. National political reporter HOLLY OTTERBEIN … — What does the first post-Dobbs election with Trump on the ballot look like? Democrats defied expectations in the 2022 midterms, but DOUG MASTRIANO and BLAKE MASTERS do not have the political skills of Trump. Can he escape the backlash? Or will a surge of women voters angered by the end of abortion rights usher in the first female president? Data reporter JESSICA PIPER … — Does the ground game still matter? Harris turned her record fundraising into a sprawling and sophisticated field operation. Trump, meanwhile, has lagged in fundraising, and his campaign's ground game has prompted GOP worries . So I will be watching how turnout and voting patterns shift in the highly targeted swing states relative to other states where voters were just coasting on national vibes. National political reporter ELENA SCHNEIDER … — Do we see Democrats perform better (maybe a lot better) in states with very restrictive abortion bans? Everyone was understandably shocked over ANN SELZER’s Iowa poll showing Harris up by 3 points. Does that mean red-state voters are connecting abortion to a specific candidate in a way that opens up these states to Democrats in a post-Roe world? Senior campaign and elections editor STEVEN SHEPARD … — Did the economic populism argument prosecuted by Harris, and particularly the Future Forward super PAC, dent Trump among working- and middle-class voters? I watched all the TV ads all cycle, and for all the talk about abortion vs. the economy vs. “democracy,” much of the pro-Harris paid media campaign boiled down to this: Trump is going to lower taxes for his rich friends, while Harris will help the middle class. I’ll be checking places like Lackawanna County, Pennsylvania; Brown County, Wisconsin; and Saginaw County, Michigan. White House reporter MYAH WARD … — Just how big will the gender gap be? And will it be the defining story of this election as so many pollsters projected? If the answer is (a) massive and (b) yes, both parties will have to reckon with this huge shift in the electorate and what it means in the years ahead. National political correspondent ADAM WREN … — Did Harris’ big bet on courting Republicans pay off? In suburban Hamilton County, Indiana, where I live, Haley won a third of the vote in our May primary — months after dropping out of the race. Do those voters end up with Harris or come home to Trump? Whatever the outcome, Harris' strategy of nurturing “future former Republicans,” as PETE BUTTIGIEG once called them, was a defining feature of her 106-day campaign. Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. What are you seeing out there today? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels .
| | | | A message from the Pharmaceutical Care Management Association: Elections come and go — but one thing never changes: Big Pharma wants to increase their profits at the expense of everyone else.
That’s why Big Pharma’s top priority for Congress is a self-serving agenda called “delinking,” which would hand big drug companies a massive $32 billion windfall in higher profits, all while protecting their otherwise limitless pricing power and increasing health care costs for employers, patients and taxpayers.
Stop Big Pharma’s “delinking” agenda. | | | BOOKMARK IT — “POLITICO’s hour-by-hour guide for watching election returns,” by Steven Shepard BREAKING OVERNIGHT — “Boeing factory workers vote to accept contract and end more than 7-week strike,” by AP’s David Koenig and Lindsey Wasson in Seattle: “The contract’s ratification on the eve of Election Day clears the way for a major U.S. manufacturer and government contractor to restart Pacific Northwest assembly lines that the factory workers’ walkout have idled for 53 days.” WHITHER THE GOP’S WOMEN — As we wait for returns tonight, one surprising group of Republicans is already bracing for setbacks: House GOP women, who “have watched their gains in the chamber stagnate,” Olivia Beavers reports this morning, and potentially contract once ballots are counted. Not only are several incumbents in danger of losing, but there is also an impending leadership vacuum: All of the House’s female committee chairs are stepping aside, and there is no sign a woman is seeking a leadership spot beyond conference chair, currently the No. 4 spot. Interviews with two dozen of the 34 incumbent GOP women revealed concerns about recruiting and about the perception that congressional life is too hard on the mothers of young children. But there’s also a pipeline issue: Recent gains in the number of female members have not yet translated into leadership roles, which could pay dividends with women voters over time. Consider where House Democrats are now: Not only do they count 92 women in their caucus, but they have elected the first female speaker in NANCY PELOSI (D-Calif.), and Rep. KATHERINE CLARK (D-Mass.) is currently serving as House Democrats’ No. 2. In some additional reporting Olivia shared with Playbook, some Republican women openly wonder if they are simply not raising their hands to lead. During last year’s speakership race after KEVIN McCARTHY’s removal, for instance, about a dozen GOP men threw their names in the ring. Several women said at the time, half-jokingly, that they knew better than to jump into a political buzzsaw — an attitude some of them now regret. “Raising your hand, putting yourself out there, it’s hard to do that in a public-facing way,” Rep. MARIANNETTE MILLER-MEEKS (R-Iowa) told Olivia. “I was disappointed no woman ran. … And I was going to put my name in and then withdraw, just so that a woman was in the running.”
| | | | A message from the Pharmaceutical Care Management Association:   Stop Big Pharma from undermining competition and increasing costs for employers, patients and taxpayers. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House and the Senate are out. What we’re watching … There’s an entirely plausible nightmare scenario that combines aspects of the two most traumatic experiences in recent congressional history: the contested presidential certification of 2021 plus the speakerless House of 2023. As Jordain Carney and Kyle Cheney report , another indeterminate speaker election next Jan. 3 could threaten the election certification on Jan. 6. Put simply, no speaker means no counting of electoral votes. “That would set up a constitutional crisis with no obvious solution,” they write. The current plan amounts to hoping either MIKE JOHNSON or HAKEEM JEFFRIES manages to get quickly elected. At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the afternoon. On the trail Harris will take part in radio interviews from D.C., before holding her election night watch party at Howard University. Trump will hold his election night watch party in West Palm Beach, Florida. Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ will make a political stop in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, with GWEN WALZ before joining Harris’ watch party at Howard.
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Donald Trump arrives to deliver remarks during a campaign rally at the PPL Center in Allentown, Pennsylvania, Oct. 29, 2024. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | THE WEAVE — Trump closed out his third straight presidential campaign yesterday with a myriad of pitches, digressions, controversial comments and even a possible new policy idea: He ramped up his threatened tariffs on Mexico to as high as 100 percent, WaPo’s Jeff Stein reports. Trump said the trade penalties would range from 25 percent on up until Mexico stops migrants and drugs heading north. If implemented, that would likely lead to significant price increases for American consumers. Perhaps no late-breaking headline was as unwelcome for Trump as the explosive revelation by Amanda Moore in POLITICO Magazine that his campaign’s Western Pennsylvania regional field director was a secret white nationalist. LUKE MEYER has co-hosted RICHARD SPENCER’s podcast for years under the alias of ALBERTO BARBAROSSA, openly espousing white nationalist views. The Trump campaign/state GOP fired him Friday once Amanda brought the connection, which Meyer admitted, to their attention. But, but, but: Those aren’t the only closing messages coming from Trump. He also featured MEGYN KELLY on stage last night, burying the hatchet with an erstwhile enemy, and landed the official endorsement of one of the most influential people in culture, JOE ROGAN. The campaign sees JD VANCE as especially helpful in closing out Pennsylvania, given his Rust Belt connection, ABC’s Hannah Demissie reports. And Vance emphasizes a more respectful message in an interview with NBC’s Henry Gomez and Alec Hernández, saying most Harris voters are good people. (He’s still angry at WaPo, though.) RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE THE PREDICTIONS — The Nevada Independent’s Jon Ralston forecasts Harris winning Nevada by 0.3 points and Sen. JACKY ROSEN winning by 5. Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicts Harris winning with the Blue Wall + Nevada, Republicans flipping the Senate 52-48, and Democrats flipping the House 218-217 (!). FiveThirtyEight gives Harris a 50 percent chance of victory, Trump 49 percent. Decision Desk HQ gives Trump a 53 percent chance. The Economist says 50/50. WEATHER REPORT — It may be cold and rainy today in Michigan and Wisconsin, but the other swing states look clear, and extreme weather isn’t forecast anywhere, Steve Shepard previews. BATTLE FOR THE BALLOT — Republicans scored a court victory in Georgia, where the Supreme Court ruled that 3,000 suburban Atlanta voters who got their ballots late don’t have extra time to return them, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Katherine Landergan reports. … The RNC sued Milwaukee over how many poll watchers are allowed, per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Allison Dirr. … Amid a flood of largely Republican lawsuits, more than 100 bar association leaders warned last night not to use the courts for frivolous/unsubstantiated claims, U.S. News & World Report’s Elliott Davis Jr. reports. THE CHALLENGES — “Last-minute challenges in battleground Pennsylvania target thousands of mail-in ballots,” by CNN’s Tierney Sneed, Fredreka Schouten and Annie Grayer THE CURES — “In Pennsylvania, a race to keep voters from having their ballots thrown away,” by WaPo’s Colby Itkowitz in Philadelphia THERE ARE TAPES — Contrary to Trump’s rhetoric, ProPublica’s Andy Kroll obtained footage of an RNC official telling poll watchers that noncitizen voting isn’t a big concern because there are guardrails against it. THREAT ASSESSMENT APOCALYPSE NOW — “The Americans Prepping for a Second Civil War,” by The New Yorker’s Charles Bethea … “Preppers Await the End. But First, the Election,” by NYT’s Thomas Gibbons-Neff THE DISINFORMATION QUESTION — The intelligence community warned last night about two specific Russian efforts to sow lies online, including a false Arizona video, per Kyle Cheney. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency leader JEN EASTERLY told reporters yesterday that this campaign has featured an “unprecedented amount of disinformation,” including from foreign adversaries, per CNN’s Sean Lyngaas; Mohar Chatterjee reports on new research findings that Russia is accelerating its efforts. And one American influencer tells CNN’s Isabel Rosales and Paul Murphy that a Russian propagandist paid him $100 to post the viral, fake Georgia fraud video. Related read: “Elon Musk’s election-doubting posts are shared 9 times more than his less extreme election content,” by NBC’s Jasmine Cui and David Ingram THE CERTIFICATION QUESTION — The 2022 experience of Cochise County, Arizona, has some officials bracing for unrest and showdowns over local election certification, WaPo’s Yvonne Wingett Sanchez reports from Bisbee. But swing-state officials tell Zach Montellaro and John Sakellariadis that they stand ready to prevent and punish any attempts at election subversion. THE VIOLENCE QUESTION — Law enforcement put up new security fencing around the White House, Harris’ residence and both campaigns’ watch parties, per Adam Cancryn. Local police and National Guard units around the country are preparing to respond to any violence, per Axios’ Russell Contreras and Erin Doherty, while dozens of states’ Guardsmen are ready to help with the inauguration, Paul McLeary reports. RACE FOR THE STATES DOWN BALLOT — Florida Democrats, in the wilderness, are just hoping they can flip enough state legislative seats today to break GOP supermajorities, NOTUS’ Claire Heddles reports from Tampa. POLL POSITION National: Harris +4, per John Zogby Strategies. Harris +2, per Ipsos. Trump +0.3, per TIPP. … Michigan: Harris +2, per Emerson. Harris +4, per Research Co. Harris +2, per Florida Atlantic University. … Pennsylvania: Trump +1, per Emerson. Harris +1, per Research Co. Harris +2, per FAU. … Wisconsin: Tied, per Emerson. Harris +4, per Research Co. Harris +1, per FAU. … Georgia: Trump +1, per East Carolina University. Trump +1, per Emerson. … Arizona: Trump +1, per Victory Insights. Trump +2, per Trafalgar. Trump +2, per Emerson. … Nevada: Tied, per Emerson. … North Carolina: Trump +1, per Emerson.
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|  A barge is loaded with containers at the Port of Savannah on May 14. | Audra Melton for POLITICO | CLIMATE FILES — The Inflation Reduction Act’s massive federal investments in clean energy and domestic manufacturing are playing out in complicated ways on the campaign trail, for both Democrats and Republicans. Dems once hoped that the $150 billion in announced investments would redound to their political benefit as they transformed communities nationwide — but most of the projects haven’t reached that stage yet, Kelsey Tamborrino and Jessie Blaeser report. Their analysis shows that 92 percent of that money is for projects not yet online, as various delays slow the transition. But some of the projects have started to make an impact. And that is forcing some Republicans to walk a tricky line, between Trump’s vows to pull back green energy subsidies and local communities’ messages that they like the law, Timothy Cama and Emma Dumain report. “Now Republicans are the ones flailing, their mixed messages on the IRA becoming a political liability for vulnerable incumbents” as Democrats have started to go on offense. CONGRESS CLEAR WATERS — If Democrats retake the House, Rep. MAXINE WATERS (D-Calif.) is already making plans for centrist financial services legislation that could entice Republicans and anger progressives, Eleanor Mueller reports for Pros. VALLEY TALK AD IT UP — Meta’s blocking of new political ads will remain in place for some days after the election as votes are counted, Axios’ Sara Fischer reports.
| | | | A message from the Pharmaceutical Care Management Association:   Savings secured by PBMs are the only real check on Big Pharma’s pricing power. | | | JUDICIARY SQUARE | 
Three paths exist for the Supreme Court if it wants to reshape the 2024 outcome. | Kent Nishimura/Getty Images | SCOTUS WATCH — The 2026 race for control of the House is already getting a shot in the arm as the Supreme Court said yesterday it will take up a Louisiana redistricting case, WaPo’s Justin Jouvenal reports. The complicated case could affect the state’s districts for next cycle, and the precedent could resonate across other states that have to keep their maps compliant with the Voting Rights Act. MUSK READ — Musk scored a favorable ruling yesterday from a Philadelphia judge, who swatted down DA LARRY KRASNER’s argument that the billionaire’s $1 million voter giveaways were illegal, the Philly Inquirer’s Chris Palmer and Jeremy Roebuck report. But Krasner seized on the revelation in court that Musk’s winners were not actually selected by a lottery. AMERICA AND THE WORLD FOR YOUR RADAR — Sgt. QUANDARIUS DAVON STANLEY, who was injured this summer while working on the humanitarian floating pier mission for Gaza, has now died, per CNN’s Haley Britzky. MIDDLE EAST LATEST — “U.S. and Saudi Arabia discuss security agreement separate from Israel mega-deal,” by Axios’ Barak Ravid
| | PLAYBOOKERS | | Hung Cao got equal time on NBC. Azealia Banks is voting for Kamala Harris to stop Elon Musk. José Andrés threatened to run against Andy Harris for Congress. Luke Casey’s Dirty Water is a hotspot for D.C. Republicans. MEDIA MOVES — The AP’s Washington investigations team is adding Kimberly Kindy, Brian Slodysko and Byron Tau. Kindy previously was a Pulitzer-winning reporter at WaPo. Slodysko has already been in the AP’s D.C. bureau. Tau most recently was at NOTUS, and is a POLITICO alum. … Claire Barkley is now a publicist in Washington for CNN. She most recently was media booker at POLITICO. TRANSITIONS — Bob Joachim is now senior director for U.S. government partnerships at Zscaler. He most recently worked for the House Appropriations Homeland Security Subcommittee. … Caitlin Harder has been named director of public affairs at the Beer Institute. She previously was director of public affairs at Clyde. … … Brad Bailey is now a managing director on KKR’s public policy team. He most recently was SVP of government affairs at the American Investment Council. … Ashley Spillane’s Impactual’s new entertainment division is adding Marc Keiser as director of athlete and artist engagement and CiCi James as director of artist and celebrity engagement, The Hollywood Reporter’s Ronda Racha Penrice reports. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Josh Schwerin, president of Saratoga Strategies and a Priorities USA, Hillary for America and DCCC alum, and Elizabeth McKenna welcomed Oliver John McKenna Schwerin on Thursday. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-Fla.) … New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (5-0) … Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers … Valerie Biden Owens … John Harwood … NBC’s Ken Strickland and Jason Calabretta … POLITICO’s Katy O’Donnell and Camille von Kaenel … Justin Muzinich … The Dallas Morning News’ Nolan McCaskill … Steve Pfister … Benjamin Wittes of Brookings and Lawfare … Stephen Rubright … WaPo’s Kevin Sullivan … Keith Castaldo of Avōq … Annie Kelly Kuhle of FP1 Strategies … Steve Caldeira of the Household & Commercial Products Association … Moira Whelan of the National Democratic Institute … Accenture’s Matt Nicholson … former Reps. Bob Barr (R-Ga.) and Ben Quayle (R-Ariz.) … Jane Timken … Kristin Bodenstedt … John Procter … Chris Mewett ... Ryan Mewett … Malik Haughton … Karen Mulhauser … Target’s Molly Cagle … Kargo’s Gabrielle Hoffman … CBS’ Dana Jacobson … Owen Beal of Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) office … Virginia Smith of FTI Consulting … AEI’s Max Eden Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misstated the state Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster represents. It is New Hampshire.
| | | | A message from the Pharmaceutical Care Management Association: PBMs are working every day on behalf of employers, helping them provide high-quality, cost-effective prescription drug coverage to employees and their families. But Big Pharma is working to undermine PBM savings by removing the only real check on their otherwise limitless pricing power, and boost drug company profits at the expense of patients and employers.
In fact, Big Pharma-backed legislation targeting PBMs would boost drug company profits and undermine the ability of America’s employers to offer quality, affordable health care coverage — threatening the $1,040 average savings per person PBMs deliver for health plan sponsors.
A world without PBMs is a world without competition in the drug marketplace — which would increase health care costs for hardworking employers, patients and taxpayers.
Stand up for savings and competition. Stop Big Pharma’s “delinking” agenda. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
