Dems search for a shutdown strategy

Mar 12, 2025

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Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) during a hearing.

Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly is one of the Democrats who is undecided on whether to vote with Republicans to advance the stopgap spending bill. | Angelina Katsanis/POLITICO

THE CATCH-UP

THE DEMOCRATIC DIVIDE: Senate Republicans need to win the support of eight Democrats in the chamber to advance the stopgap spending bill that House Republicans passed yesterday and avoid a shutdown later this week. Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) has already said he’ll vote with Republicans. One down, seven to go.

The usual suspects: As of today, there’s not a clear indication how the traditional swing votes are leaning.

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) told reporters he remains undecided on the seven-month stopgap funding bill. Asked when he would make up his mind, he said before the end of the yet-to-be-scheduled Senate vote.

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) also didn’t rule out voting for the bill during a brief interview, but said he’s in talks with leadership about trying to secure amendment votes.

Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) said he won’t help pass the bill. “I do not want to shut down our government, I want to improve it, streamline it and ensure it delivers services our communities need,” he said in a statement.

Let it linger: The “lingering indecision” comes as Senate Democrats are set to meet this afternoon for a closed-door lunch where they are expected to discuss their strategy ahead of the shutdown deadline that looms at the end of the week, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney and Joe Gould write. “They face growing pressure from the left flank of their party to oppose the House bill, but it’s not clear any Plan B could pass in time to avoid a shutdown. House GOP leaders adjourned the chamber Tuesday night, with members not due to return to Washington until March 24.”

That was fast: The NRCC is already up with a round of 35 identical digital ads in districts represented by vulnerable House Democrats next year over their votes against the CR, Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser reports.

SHAHEEN RETIRES, DEMS PERSPIRE: New Hampshire Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen announced this morning that she won’t seek reelection next year, opening up a seat in a perennial battleground state that is expected to draw competitive primaries in both parties.

Immediately, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas (who has long been seen as a contender for a Senate run) said he is considering a bid. Add former Rep. Annie Kuster to that mix, too: She told POLITICO this morning that she would take a “serious look” at the seat if Pappas doesn’t run. There’s also freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander, who could launch a bid and crowd the Democratic primary. More from POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky, Nicholas Wu and Andrew Howard

For Republicans: Former Gov. Chris Sununu (another who has long been the subject of a will-he-won’t-he Senate run) said yesterday before the Shaheen news even dropped that he was considering a run for the seat, citing President Donald Trump’s efforts to reshape the federal government. “That makes me think, OK, maybe things are changing,” Sununu told the Washington Times. “Maybe there’s a path here.”

While Sununu could have a field-clearing effect, there’s also Scott Brown, the former Massachusetts senator and ex-ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa who lost to Shaheen in 2014. “I appreciate @jeanneshaheen’s service to our state and for her support and vote for me as NH’s Ambassador to NZ and Samoa,” Brown wrote in a post on X. “Now it’s time for New Hampshire to have someone in the delegation who fights for our priorities and stands with, not against, the Trump agenda.”

Shaheen, who is 78 and was first elected to the Senate in 2008, said she made the “difficult” decision to step aside: “It’s just time.” “There are urgent challenges ahead, both here at home and around the world, and while I’m not seeking reelection, believe me, I am not retiring,” Shaheen said in a video.

IT’S NOT EASY BEING GREENLAND: Thanks to Trump’s stated interest in acquiring Greenland, the country’s elections yesterday drew close attention as a barometer of how Greenlanders feel about the whole episode. The result? “Greenland's centre right opposition party has won the most votes in elections that will be seen as a rejection of Donald Trump's interference in the island's politics,” Sky News reports. “The Demokraatit party won 30% of the vote. It favours a slow move towards independence from Denmark.”

Party leader Jens-Frederik Nielsen told Sky News that he hopes “it sends a clear message to [Trump] that we are not for sale.” He continued: “We don't want to be Americans. No, we don't want to be Danes. We want to be Greenlanders. And we want our own independence in the future. And we want to build our own country by ourselves.”

Related read: “An Unexpected Trump Bump for the World’s Centrists,” by NYT’s Mark Landler

Good Wednesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at gross@politico.com.

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8 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

1. TARIFF WAR LATEST: Canada joined with Europe this morning to retaliate against Trump’s escalating tariff war, with Canadian Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc announcing a “dollar-for-dollar approach with a 25% tariff that would come into effect at 12:01 am ET on Thursday,” WSJ’s Ryan Dubé writes. “The tariffs will target U.S. steel products worth $8.8 billion, aluminum products worth $2 billion and other U.S. imports, including computers and sports equipment, LeBlanc said.”

The knock-on effects: Chinese officials “summoned Walmart officials for a dressing-down this week after receiving complaints that the retailer was pressuring some Chinese suppliers to cut prices to absorb the cost of U.S. tariffs,” WSJ’s Hannah Miao and Raffaele Huang report. And Ford’s F-150 truck, “the top-selling vehicle in the U.S. and the automaker’s main profit engine, is one of the industry’s biggest users of aluminum,” which sets it up for an outsized impact from the tariff tit-for-tat, WSJ’s Mike Colias and Bob Tita write.

2. INFLATION NATION: Despite a general cooling of inflation in February, the latest data released by the Labor Department this morning “may offer less comfort to U.S. businesses, consumers, and Federal Reserve policymakers than it otherwise would because tariffs are threatening to raise some prices in the months ahead,” WSJ’s Justin Lahart writes. Drilling into the data, consumer prices were up 2.8% for February compared to a year earlier, just slightly beating economists’ predictions. “Prices excluding food and energy categories — the so-called core measure economists watch in an effort to better capture inflation’s underlying trend — rose 3.1%. That was the lowest year-over-year reading since 2021.”

3. PEACE OF MIND: Trump’s decision to once again send aid and intelligence to Ukraine has “reignited hope in Kyiv that Washington is willing to be a partner in ending the war with Moscow, even as resistance to a ceasefire mounted in Russia, and the Kremlin declined to immediately endorse the proposal,” WaPo’s Lizzie Johnson, Robyn Dixon, Anastacia Galouchka and Francesca Ebel report from Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the recent peace talks as “positive” and “constructive.” “We’re not planning on playing with the narrative that ‘we don’t want to end the war,’ that Russia is spreading all over the world. For me it’s important to end the war,” Zelenskyy said. “I want the president of the U.S. to see this, for Americans to see this and to feel this.”

From Russia with love: A Kremlin spox said today that President Vladimir Putin’s government is “carefully studying” the latest negotiations and that he “expected the United States to inform Russia in the coming days of ‘the details of the negotiations that took place and the understandings that were reached,’” per NYT’s Anton Troianovski. “He raised the possibility of another phone call between Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump, signaling that the Kremlin saw the cease-fire proposal as just a part of a broader flurry of diplomacy.”

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4. KNOWING ANDREW FERGUSON: “How Trump’s FTC Chairman Is Bringing a MAGA Approach to Antitrust Enforcement,” by WSJ’s Dave Michaels: Andrew Ferguson, “38 years old, became chairman of the FTC, which enforces antitrust and consumer protection laws, after his progressive predecessor, Lina Khan, elevated the commission’s profile by arguing the nation’s largest companies, especially in the tech sector, needed to be reined in. The two share more in common than first meets the eye. While Ferguson has been outspoken in criticizing Khan’s approach to business as too heavy-handed, he is also part of a populist GOP wing that shares her suspicions of corporate power, especially as a threat to personal liberty.”

5. KNOWING CAROLINE CRENSHAW: As the lone Democratic commissioner at the SEC, Caroline Crenshaw can’t effect much actual change — but the point is the fight. “Dissenting policy statements issued by Ms. Crenshaw don’t have the force of law. But they can be useful in staking out policy differences with colleagues, and the dissents are sometimes cited by private litigants in the courts,” NYT’s Matthew Goldstein writes. “Her term, which began in 2020, could run until the end of this year. When the Senate votes on Paul Atkins, the man President Trump has named to be the S.E.C.’s permanent chair, there will be three Republicans on the commission. A fifth seat is vacant, and it’s unclear if or when Mr. Trump will fill it.”

6. CONSTRUCTIVE CRITICISM: “Pro-Palestinian groups have more demands for Democrats,” by POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky: “A quartet of progressive advocacy groups are asking the Demcocratic National Committee in a new letter to better engage with pro-Palestinian voters, according to a copy shared with POLITICO — a sign that the party’s rift over the Israel-Hamas war could stretch into the midterms. In the letter … [the groups] accuse the Harris campaign of taking policy stances and issuing voter-outreach directives that served to ‘villainize’ and ‘ignore’ Democratic voters who were opposed to Israel’s actions in Gaza and wanted the Biden administration to withhold military aid to the country.”

7. WAITING FOR HARRIS: While most of the California gubernatorial hopefuls hold their fire to see if Kamala Harris will jump into the race, former Rep. Katie Porter dove headfirst into the water this week with a campaign launch and video that was jam-packed a little something for everybody as she hones an appeal to a broad swath of voters, POLITICO’s Melanie Mason writes. But what about Harris, for whom Porter worked years ago? “I’m launching today, because I’m not waiting around. Trump is inflicting real harm on Californian families,” Porter told Melanie over the phone. “I think if she chooses to run, as I said, it would have a powerful field-clearing effect. But right now, I’m not going to wait. I think there’s a real appetite for that kind of fresh energy.”

8. THE REAL-WORLD IMPACT: “Immigrants transformed Chicago’s South Side. Trump’s crackdown is pushing them underground,” by POLITICO’s Shia Kapos: “Since Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration, raids in the city — and the specter of more far-reaching sweeps — have caused fear in the South Side’s burgeoning immigrant communities, and many new arrivals have gone virtually underground, say observers. The deportation crackdown prompted some parents to keep children home from school and adults to miss days at work. The upheaval has exacerbated the challenges faced by local officials in trying to address the needs of a population that was already difficult to help due to language and legal issues.”

A message from the American Bankers Association:

Urge Congress to support the ACRE Act which will lower the cost of credit in rural America. Learn more.

TALK OF THE TOWN

Ruth Marcus writes for The New Yorker on her decision to leave WaPo, including as a postscript her column about Jeff Bezos’ makeover of the opinion section that was spiked by CEO Will Lewis, which she cites as the last straw that essentially led to her departure.

Steve Bannon was the latest guest on California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s new podcast. Bannon told Newsom he was trying to “unwind you from being a globalist to make you a populist nationalist.” Newsom told Bannon that he should tell Trump not to give the rich and corporations major tax cuts.

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