MIDDLE EAST LATEST: “Israel launched a wave of airstrikes across the Gaza Strip early Tuesday, saying it was striking dozens of Hamas targets in its heaviest assault on the territory since a ceasefire took effect in January,” per the AP’s overnight liveblog. “Hospitals reported more than 320 people killed, including women and children. The surprise attack shattered a period of relative calm during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan and raised the prospect of a full return to fighting in a 17-month war that has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and caused widespread destruction across Gaza.” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitttold Fox News the Trump administration was consulted ahead of the attacks. … Expect plenty of fallout today.
DRIVING THE DAY
President Donald Trump, left, and Russian President Vladimir Putin leave a press conference after their meeting at the Presidential Palace in Helsinki, Finland, on July 16, 2018. | Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP
A VERY HAPPY ANNIVERSARY: Eleven years to the day since Vladimir Putin illegally annexed Crimea — the first, calculated act of a military operation that would lead to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine — the Russian president will today speak with the leader of the free world to carve up the spoils. After weeks of high-stakes diplomacy which lurched from the royal palaces of Jeddah to a blazing row in the Oval Office, the long-awaited phone call between Putin and Donald Trump is scheduled for this morning. The world is holding its breath.
What’s at stake? Plenty. The future of a sovereign nation which has spent years — and tens of thousands of young lives — trying to fight off its murderous neighbor. Trust in American leadership. The security of eastern Europe. Trump’s reputation as a negotiator. And the message other powerful nations might take away about the repercussions of military aggression.
Your move, Vlad: It’s far from clear whether Putin even wants to sign up to a rapid peace deal, especially given recent successes on the battlefield. But he’s under some pressure to do so following the tentative 30-day ceasefire agreed between the U.S. and Ukraine last week — or risks wrecking the dramatic improvement in U.S.-Russian relations under Trump, as the WSJ’s walkup story notes. Mike Carpenter, a former National Security Council official in the Biden administration, tells POLITICO’s Amy Mackinnon and Nahal Toosi that if Putin won’t even match the 30-day ceasefire, it suggests he’s playing “rope-a-dope” with Trump. And it’s safe to say Trump won’t like that.
Feeling good: Trump insists there’s a deal to be done, however, after his overseas envoy Steve Witkoff met Putin in Moscow last Thursday to hammer out substantial parts of a draft agreement. Trump said discussions are focused on “dividing up certain assets” — which in truth means Russian-occupied Ukraine. “We’ll be talking about land,” Trump said bluntly.
Which bits? Speculation abounds over just how much of Ukraine Trump is prepared to sign away. Senior officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, have already made clear a return to Ukraine’s 2014 borders is not going to happen, which suggests that Crimea and parts of the Donbas will not be coming back. Semafor confirmed as such yesterday and revealed the Trump administration is considering going further, and may lobby the United Nations for Crimea to be recognized as part of Russia.
Beyond Crimea: Trump admin officials frequently talk about facing “battlefield reality,” which is assumed to mean Russia will be allowed to keep most or all the land it has seized — amounting to almost 20 percent of Ukraine. Kyiv fears Putin may pitch for even more, such as the key port city of Odessa, which remains under Ukrainian control. The biggest fear among allies, meanwhile, is that Trump could agree to Putin’s aims beyond Ukraine, such as the rapid withdrawal of U.S. troops from Europe.
And beyond the land: Trump said the future of “power stations” is also a key question. … Kyiv is eager for a prisoner swap, given that thousands of kidnapped Ukrainian children are still held in Russia. … Europe wants security guarantees for Ukraine, with British and French peacekeeping troops on the ground. … And Putin wants guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO, along with other long-held aims designed to prevent it slipping further to the West.
Now take a step back: Today’s meeting has echoes of the infamous Yalta conference of 1945, notes the NYT’s David Sanger, where the leaders of three great powers — Winston Churchill, Joseph Stalin and FDR — carved up Europe’s postwar future. But this time, neither Britain nor any other European ally has a seat at the table. “Only Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin will be on the call, presumably with aides listening in,” Sanger notes. “And it is not clear that either Ukraine or the big European powers will go along with whatever Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin might agree on.”
Watching and waiting: It’s uncertain how much we’ll actually see today, though the expectation inside the White House is that things could move fast. “We’ll see if we have something to announce maybe by Tuesday,” Trump said Sunday night. The president has no media events planned, but that could change depending how things pan out. At the very least we can expect a White House read-out of the call, and presumably some stream-of-consciousness postings on Trump’s Truth Social feed. Let’s just hope the caps lock is switched off.
In case it wasn’t clear: Last night on Truth Social, Trump lamented that in Ukraine, each “week brings 2,500 soldier deaths, from both sides, and it must end NOW.” Trump views himself as a peacemaker, and is keen to amplify that message. It’s no secret that his eye is fixed upon the Nobel Peace Prize, handed out by an obscure Norwegian committee every October and won by his bête noireBarack Obama in 2009. For NATO allies, though, the overwhelming fear is that what Trump and Putin agree on today will be the wrong sort of peace — one that rewards an aggressor with riches and so encourages future military incursions. Europe has seen that sort of thing before.
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LEGAL NEWS
HIGH NOON: The White House has until midday today to provide more information to federal Judge James Boasberg over its decision to press ahead with the mass deportation of Venezuelan migrants on Saturday, despite his blocking order. Boasberg is demanding more details of the flights and the people on board ahead of his next as-yet-unscheduled hearing, with the judge querying Trump’s evocation of the 1798 Alien Enemies Act — a notorious law normally reserved for wartime. With the White House in turn trying to get Boasberg removed from the case, this one has plenty more road to run.
Not happy: A clearly furious Boasberg made his displeasure clear in a court hearing last night during which he lambasted White House lawyers for claiming his initial, verbal order that the flights be turned back did not carry the weight of a written order. “That’s a heck of a stretch,” he fumed. And he rejected the Justice Department’s claim that he lacked any authority over the flights once they cleared U.S. airspace. “It’s not a question that the plane was or was not in United States airspace,” the judge said, adding that the power of federal courts does not “lapse at the water’s edge.” POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein has the story.
Not backing down: Attorney General Pam Bondi hit the airwaves last night to make clear the White House is in no mood to back down. “Absolutely,” she told Fox News’ Jeanine Pirro when asked if similar deportations may continue in the future. Other key White House figures waded in with punchy language too, including Stephen Miller, Elon Musk and Karoline Leavitt. Crucially, however, the White House said it will comply with Boasberg’s blocking order regarding all future flights while the dispute over Trump’s emergency powers plays out in court.
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FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: The White House believes it is on rock-solid ground with the public in its efforts to deport groups it has painted as “foreign terrorists.” But other aspects of its hardline immigration enforcement program are a much riskier business, POLITICO’s Myah Ward reports, with students, tourists and those married to American citizens now all being swept up in the net. “Public opinion varies dramatically depending on the kind of illegal immigrant you’re talking about,” says GOP pollster Whit Ayres, adding that some undocumented immigrants, including those who came to the country as children, tend to garner much more public sympathy in surveys than others.
DOGE DAYS
ABOUT LAST NIGHT: In late night court filings, the Trump administration moved to reinstate more than 24,000 probationary federal employees across 18 agencies after a judge declared that their firings were illegal. While administration officials “asserted that offering all of the employees their jobs back would sow chaos … they indicated they were nonetheless trying to comply with judicial orders,” WaPo’s Katie Mettler reports.
COMING SOON TO ATTACK ADS: A leaked internal memo from the Social Security Administration details how DOGE staff are plotting to rid the agency of its toll-free phone support line and change the SSA’s identity-verification rules, requiring in-person identity verification, per Axios’ Emily Peck — a change that would severely affect beneficiaries who have mobility limitations, are elderly or live in rural areas.
MOOSE LOOSE: DOGE staffers descended on the U.S. Institute of Peace’s Foggy Bottom headquarters yesterday — a move that ousted USIP president and CEO George Moose alleged was illegal. The Trump administration maintains Moose is no longer in charge of USIP: After the admin fired most of the organization’s board, its remaining members — Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Defense University President Peter Garvin — fired Moose, AP’s Matthew Lee and Chris Megerian report.
In response … “Moose vowed legal action, saying that ‘what has happened here today is an illegal takeover by elements of the executive branch of a private nonprofit.’ He said the institute’s headquarters, located across the street from the State Department, is not a federal building.”
MUDDYING UP THE WHITE-SHOE FIRMS: The Trump administration has some of the country’s largest law firms in its sights as it continues its anti-DEI crusade, WSJ’s Erin Mulvaney reports. Yesterday, the White House “sent letters to 20 major law firms saying it has concerns about their diversity programs and employment practices … The EEOC letters to the firms cite specific hiring initiatives, public statements about goals to increase the number of women and people of color, and diversity work that their clients touted in previous years.”
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BEST OF THE REST
JFK FILES: It’s the day a million Oliver Stone fans have been waiting for: This afternoon, the federal government will release more than 80,000 previously secret pages related to the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. “I don’t believe we’re going to redact anything,” Trump said in his announcement yesterday. It’s either going to be the biggest story of the decade or kind of a damp squib. More from NYT’s Tyler Pager
Center stage: Trump was speaking during his visit to the Kennedy Center yesterday — his first since taking over the performing arts institution. The president floated the idea of hosting the annual Kennedy Center honors ceremony himself, and discussed potential nominees “including giving posthumous awards to Luciano Pavarotti and Elvis Presley,” NYT’s Shawn McCreesh and Javier Hernández report. (Ed. note: Pavarotti already received the honor in 2001.) A long-time fan of Andrew Lloyd Webber, Trump said he would “improve” the center’s offerings with “some very good shows,” including “Broadway hits.” Sounds good.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: As Democrats grapple with how to adjust to the new GOP-dominated era, centrists are making their moves as they eye 2026 and are “outperforming on every level,” POLITICO’s Adam Wren, Liz Crampton and Holly Otterbein report this morning. Dems’ own polling sees an electorate that has moved “toward the Center,” Adam and co. write, which may be why, far from Washington, “there are signs at the state level that moderate Democrats are doing extremely well in districts Trump captured only a few months ago.”
SCHUMER’S DAMAGE CONTROL: Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is trying to piece his image as the party’s leader back together after his call to back the House GOP CR last week sparked a firestorm within his own party, Holly reports. Schumer and his aides have recently “been talking privately with liberal groups in an apparent effort to ease tensions,” including Indivisible co-founder Ezra Levin and local New York groups — though Indivisible called for him to step down as minority leader anyway.
But but but:Charlie Mahtesian writes in POLITICO Mag that no one should count out Schumer just yet: “Before the small donor donations flood into the coffers of the first progressive challenger to file against him, and before state and local parties begin passing resolutions condemning Schumer, it’s worth considering whether that energy is best directed elsewhere. Because the arc of Schumer’s political career is long, and it bends toward victory, no matter the era.”
GONE BUT NOT FORGOTTEN: “Scandal-ridden former Rep. Matt Gaetz is gone from Congress, but the wounds he inflicted on the House Ethics Committee that investigated him remain fresh,” POLITICO’s Hailey Fuchs reports in a must-read piece for Hill types on the once-powerful ethics watchdog. “The episode has contributed to conditions from which the Ethics Committee could struggle to fully recover, former members said in interviews.”
STATE WATCH: Wisconsin’s high-stakes Supreme Court race is under the microscope as liberal Dane County Judge Susan Crawford and conservative Waukesha County Judge Brad Schimel vie for the ideological control of the state’s high court. With just two weeks to go until election day, the total spent in the contentious race is on track to reach a whopping $100 million, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Alison Dirr and Daniel Bice report. Donald Trump Jr. told Wisconsin rally-goers last night that the race was crucial for Trump and Republicans in the years ahead, AP’s Scott Bauer reports from Oconomowoc.
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FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: A new poll of likely Republican voters in Michigan shows Republican Rep. John James in a strong position in a potential gubernatorial primary. The survey, by OnMessage Inc., shows James with a 43-point lead over his next closest competitor, former AG Mike Cox. The sample size was 600, and the interviews via phone were conducted on March 9-11. Read the full memo
UP IN THE AIR: Trump announced yesterday that he will name Republic Airways CEO Bryan Bedford to head up the Federal Aviation Administration as it continues to navigate major headwinds following last month’s fatal crash near Washington’s Reagan National Airport, POLITICO’s Oriana Pawlyk reports.
A SIGN OF THINGS TO COME: Texas law enforcement officers arrested a midwife and her assistant for carrying out abortions at clinics in the Houston area, making it the first time health care providers have been charged for violating the Lone Star State’s near-total abortion ban, The Texas Tribune’s Eleanor Klibanoff reports. The arrests are “apparently the first criminal arrests of abortion providers since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022,” NYT’s J. David Goodman reports from Houston.
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TALK OF THE TOWN
Donald TrumppulledHunter and Ashley Biden’s Secret Service details.
The White House will not return the Statue of Liberty to France.
THE LOCAL ANGLE — D.C. officials are scrambling to urge House Republicans to back a stand-alone budget bill that would keep the national capital’s funding levels at FY2025 levels, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser told reporters yesterday “she was ‘confident’ the message was getting through,” and “vowed to keep up the pressure on the House,” WaPo’s Meagan Flynn and Jenny Gathright report.
MEDIA MOVES — Catherine Lucey is joining Bloomberg News as a White House correspondent. She previously was a White House reporter at the WSJ. … Margaret Chadbourn is now a correspondent for Cheddar covering the White House. She previously was a freelance journalist.
FOR YOUR RADAR — David Zimmer, Eric Citron and Edwina Clarke are launching a litigation firm: Zimmer, Citron & Clarke. Zimmer and Clarke previously built Goodwin Procter's Supreme Court and appellate practice. Citron previously practiced at Gupta Wessler and Goldstein & Russell.
TRANSITIONS — Brianna Tibbetts is joining the Senate HELP Committee as education policy adviser. She most recently was legislative assistant for Rep. Erin Houchin (R-Ind.) and is a Mike Carey and Kevin Cramer alum. … Paul Calkins Jr. is now a VP at Continental Strategy. He previously was manager of government relations at the International Franchise Association. … Nathanson+Hauck is rebranding as Red+Blue Strategies and adding Ben Klein and Katie Wise as partners and Eden Tesfaye as chief strategy officer. Klein and Wise most recently were SVPs at Invariant, where Wise co-chaired the health care practice. Tesfaye most recently was senior adviser to the CMS administrator. …
…JJ Carola is now deputy digital director for the House Judiciary Committee GOP. He was previously a digital content specialist at FlexPoint Media and is a Lee Zeldin alum. … Nezar Jamal is now associate director for outreach at Foreign Policy for America. He most recently was associate director of partnerships and outreach at National Security Action. … Jonathan Burks will be EVP of economic and health policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center. He previously has been VP of global public policy at Walmart and is a Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell alum.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Ill.) … former USTR Katherine Tai … Reince Priebus … CNN’s Zachary Cohen … Henry Rodgers … Stephanie Schriock … Andrew McCabe … Terri McCullough … Gary Coby … Will Ragland … POLITICO’s Nick Niedzwiadek and Alix Lockett … David Mark … National Media’s Will Feltus … Katie Denis … Joe Dougherty of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies … Marcus Garza … Fox News’ Jessica Curry and Karrah Kaplan … Katie Hadji of Sen. Bill Cassidy’s (R-La.) office … Chris Harris of Giffords … Jeffrey Surrell of Shot Point Strategies … Liz Gorman … Calvin Moore … Ashlee (Reid) Morehouse … Bloomberg’s Kate Hunter … Winnie Stachelberg … Karen Knutson of Chevron … Brad Fitch … Neal McDonald of FlexPoint Media … Errin Haines of The 19th … former Rep. Mike Bishop (R-Mich.) … Laura Cunliffe … Spencer Thibodeau … MSNBC’s Haylie Reichner and Tucker Wilson … Matt Schuck … Mark Vane of HB Strategies … Kiki Kalkstein … Jim Mazzarella … Marc Adelman
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