| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard | Presented by The U.S. Chamber of Commerce | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | Good Tuesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, shocked to learn this great nation doesn’t celebrate Pancake Day.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
President Donald Trump talks to Senate Majority Leader John Thune and House Speaker Mike Johnson after the National Prayer Breakfast, at the Capitol in Washington, Feb. 6, 2025. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP | WE’RE GONNA NEED A BIGGER COFFEE MUG: Donald Trump will make his first major speech to Congress since recapturing the presidency tonight, and he certainly won’t be short of things to talk about. Trump is due before a joint session of lawmakers shortly after 9 p.m. for a State of the Union-style address, and the millions tuning in on TV should probably brace for a long night. Trump will offer viewers a whirlwind tour of his early second term, including the dismantling of the federal government; the total rewrite of U.S. foreign policy; the dramatic clampdown on illegal migration; and the culture war salvos aimed at everything from transgender student athletes to DEI programs. As of this morning, we can add major new tariffs on goods from America’s nearest neighbors and the pausing of all military aid to Ukraine. And yes, he’s still only been in power for six weeks. How tonight pans out: Trump departs the White House at 8:30 p.m., accompanied by Melania. They’ll arrive at the Capitol at 8:40 p.m., where lawmakers from both chambers will have resumed business in the House a few minutes before. … The president is due to make his address at 9:10 p.m., per the White House schedule. … And terrifyingly for those of us who cherish early bedtimes, he’s not planning to leave the Capitol until 11:20 p.m. … First-term Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) will deliver the Democrats’ official response. Welcome to GloatFest: Trump is hardly shy about bigging himself up at the best of times, and given the extraordinary success — on his own terms, reply-guys — of his 42 days back in office, you just know there’s a long list coming tonight. Illegal border crossings are down dramatically; USAID has essentially been shuttered; NATO partners are scrambling to increase their defense spending; and the national conversation around DEI efforts has been transformed. Some of the most contentious Cabinet picks in U.S. history have sailed into office. Protectionism is back in a major way. Without question, America has been changed. Lapping it all up … will be House and Senate Republicans, keen to be on camera cheering the most wide-reaching far-right agenda we’ve seen in decades. But there will be quiet misgivings too among the GOP crowd. Some Republicans are privately worried about the prospect of cuts to Medicaid. Others fret over America’s ballooning debt. Some think slapping trade tariffs on your nearest neighbors is plain crazy (more on that below). Plenty are anxious to see Trump on the brink of abandoning Ukraine. And on that front … In case you somehow missed the big news last night, the White House announced Trump is pausing all military aid to Ukraine pending a review — instantly cutting off more than $1 billion of arms and ammunition headed for the front line. It’s a huge, huge win for Russian President Vladimir Putin, and represents the most significant moment so far in Trump’s overhaul of America’s stance on the war in Europe. The move is clearly designed to force Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — who fell out with Trump so spectacularly last Friday — to bend to the White House’s will. Spelling it out: “President Trump has been clear that he is focused on peace,” a White House official told POLITICO’s Eli Stokolls last night. “We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well. We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution.” In other words: Zelenskyy needs to get on board with Trump’s approach, or Ukrainian guns will soon be running short of ammo. Under this president more than most, ego-fueled tiffs between posturing blokes have real-world consequences for us all. GOP mutterings: “Too bad Iran, North Korea and China are not pausing their military aid and economic support,” Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) told Eli. “There is an invader and a victim, there is a democracy and a dictatorship, there is a country who wants to be part of the West and one who hates the West. We should be unambiguously for the good side.” Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) added: “I do not think we should be pausing our efforts. It’s the Ukrainians who are shedding blood.” Yeah but he was mean, so: Vice President JD Vance — who kinda triggered the whole row — was on Sean Hannity’s Fox News show last night to double-down on his criticism of Zelenskyy. The Ukrainian president displayed a “lack of respect” and a “certain sense of entitlement” in the Oval Office, Vance said, insisting Trump had tried to “bend over backwards” to keep things diplomatic. Vance criticised European allies for lacking a “realistic” plan to end the war, and for “doing a disservice to Ukrainians” by appearing alongside Zelenskyy to “puff him up.” Watching brief: How will Zelenskyy and those self same European allies — who linked arms with the Ukrainian leader in a public show of support on Sunday — respond? U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron are still scrambling to build a Europe-led peace plan that might get this process back on track. … Watch this space. Back to tonight’s speech: Officially, Trump’s speech will be centered on the “renewal of the American dream,” and it’s unclear where backroom deals with Russia fit into that theme. Nevertheless, the president has hinted that he’ll have plenty more to say on Ukraine tonight — both on the minerals deal that wasn’t signed on Friday, and on his broader plan for peace (per the WSJ). Whether actual policy announcements creep in amidst the bluster and the showmanship remains to be seen. What they’re saying: “I’m gonna have a lot of fun,” Vance told Fox News. “He’s gonna talk a lot about the successes of the first 45 days.” “TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE BIG,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “I WILL TELL IT LIKE IT IS!”
| | | | A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce: When Main Street businesses have a competitive tax code, local economies thrive, and workers benefit from higher paychecks and more job opportunities. Permanently extending the pro-growth reforms in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would prevent a $4 trillion tax increase on American families and employers. This permanency would provide the certainty and stability needed for long-term investments, driving economic growth, boosting productivity, and ensuring prosperity across the economy. Learn more. | | | Behind the scenes: Trump has actually played only a small role in drafting the speech thus far, CNN’s Kevin Liptak and colleagues report, though Stephen Miller and other top White House aides piled in to make tweaks last night. “While the president’s speechwriting team has been working on multiple drafts, aides said Monday that Trump has spent little time on the address — aside from a few theatrical moments that are intended to resonate with the audience on television and inside the House chamber.” Big moment for Dems: Given the expected TV audience — more than 32 million tuned in to see Biden’s last State of the Union in 2024 — tonight marks the first moment since the election that much of America will actually pay any attention to the Democrats. How the Dems conduct themselves tonight therefore matters. We’ve seen in the past how PR stunts can cut through on these occasions — often with negative repercussions — and Dem leaders are asking for decorum from their conference tonight. What to expect: The leadership’s big idea is for Democrats to turn up with special guests who showcase the “human cost” of Trump’s first weeks in office — think federal workers who have lost their jobs thanks to DOGE, and so on. (The NYT reckons there will be a particular focus on military veterans.) Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer will lead a press conference at noon to hammer home his case. But Axios reports some senior Dems, like Sens. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), will simply boycott the Trump Show altogether. It’s the economy, stupid: Once Trump has finished we’ll get the Dems’ formal response via Sen. Elissa Slotkin, the trend-bucking freshman from Michigan who secured one of the party’s only decent results on Nov. 5. She’s swiftly become the Dems’ most-profiled politician since being announced for the role last week. Expect a sharp focus on economic issues, especially with new tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico kicking in today. Let’s dive into that one next.
| | | | A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce: American businesses agree on the importance of permanently extending the pro-growth tax reforms in 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Competitive, pro-growth tax policy is essential to raising workers' wages, improving the standard of living, and helping businesses invest more in their communities. Learn more. | | | (TRADE) WAR: WHAT IS IT GOOD FOR? NO REPRIEVE: Trump’s 25 percent tariff on goods imported from America’s closest neighbors came into effect this morning as the president wages economic war on Canada and Mexico. There was to be no last-minute reprieve for North American free trade fans this time after the most protectionist U.S. tariff policy since World War Two kicked in at midnight. China is also feeling the brunt of Trump’s approach, with the 10 percent import tariff announced last month doubling to 20 percent. A long and bitter air war over the costs vs. benefits of tariffs for ordinary Americans is now playing out on our TV screens. Hitting straight back: Outgoing Canadian PM Justin Trudeau said in a statement last night there was “no justification” for Trump’s actions. He announced reciprocal tariffs on U.S. imports, with $30 billion effective immediately and a further $125 billion in three weeks’ time. “Because of the tariffs imposed by the U.S., Americans will pay more for groceries, gas, and cars, and potentially lose thousands of jobs,” Trudeau said. “Tariffs will disrupt an incredibly successful trading relationship. They will violate the very trade agreement that was negotiated by President Trump in his last term.” … Ontario Premier Doug Ford “threatened to shut off his province’s electricity exports to the U.S. and to block shipments of Ontario’s high-grade nickel, which he said provides 50 percent of U.S. supplies,” per the Globe and Mail. “If they want to try to annihilate Ontario, I will do anything, including cutting off their energy — with a smile on my face,” Ford said yesterday during a news conference, per the CBC. And from China: “China imposed tariffs as high as 15% on US goods and banned exports to some defense companies in retaliation to the Trump administration’s new levy,” per Bloomberg. “Soybeans, beef and fruits are among products facing a 10% tariff, according to an announcement from the Ministry of Finance.” The nation also filed a lawsuit with the WTO, WSJ reports. Coming attractions: Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said yesterday she had “Plan B, C and D” all ready if Trump went through with his threat. We can therefore presumably expect some kind of economic response from Mexico today. “We will respond accordingly,” she said. “We have a plan, and Mexico stands united." China has also made clear there will be retaliatory measures to Trump’s latest move. Watch this space. Make no mistake … This is a massive moment for the U.S. economy — something which has been weirdly easy to miss amidst Trump’s eye-popping moves on foreign policy, justice and the machinations of government. But the NYT spells it out: “Canada, Mexico and China are the three largest trading partners of the United States, accounting for more than 40 percent of both U.S. imports and exports last year. The three countries supply the bulk of crude oil, beer, copper wire, toilet paper, hot-rolled iron, cucumbers and chocolate imported by the United States, as well as a dizzying array of other products.” Watching brief: All eyes will now remain fixed on the stock market following yesterday’s instant nosedive. Those clips of the Fox News stock ticker plummeting even as Trump was still speaking yesterday have gone completely viral, and Dems were trying to get the phrase “Trump Slump” trending last night. Inflation is the other big indicator to watch in the months ahead. The dreaded S word: “Economists warn that tariffs have the potential to raise prices while also slowing the economy, increasing the risk of ‘stagflation,’ a combination of anemic growth and high inflation,” WSJ’s Konrad Putzier writes. Going viral (again): The Ferris Bueller lesson on tariff history. Presumably, Trump is not a fan.
| | | | CALIFORNIA DECODED: The technology industry and its key characters are driving the national political narrative right now, but it is also a uniquely California story. To understand how the Golden State is defining tech policy and politics within its borders and beyond, we’ve launched POLITICO Pro Technology: California Decoded. This new daily newsletter will track how industry players in Silicon Valley are trying to influence state and national lawmakers – and how government officials are encouraging or foiling those figures. Sign up now to get a limited, free trial of this newsletter delivered straight to your inbox. | | | | | SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN POLITICO SCOOP: DEMS ARE SERIOUS ABOUT A SHUTDOWN: With government funding drying up on March 14 — that’s just 10 days away, people — Democratic lawmakers enraged by Elon Musk’s attacks on the federal government are “itching for a fight” with the GOP, POLITICO’s Rachael Bade reports in her latest Corridors column. “Senior House Democrats have spent recent days privately surveying their members about whether they’d be willing to shut the government down over DOGE cuts,” Rachael writes. “So far, they’re encountering little resistance.” Democratic leaders had previously assumed that forcing a shutdown “would backfire on their party politically and only empower Musk even more.” But that thinking has shifted: “Democrats of all persuasions, even some centrists who have long been firmly anti-shutdown, feel that voting for a ‘clean’ spending bill would be tacitly blessing Musk’s controversial work.” Inside the shift: “Usually shutdown saber-rattling originates on the fringes of the two parties and gains momentum until leaders just can’t ignore it, lest they risk their own jobs. This time, however, the foment is coming from the leadership table itself — where there is growing anger over the lightning-fast Trump-Musk campaign to gut federal agencies and the glacial pace of court action to stop it. Some senior House Democrats believe the impacts of the DOGE cuts have already created a shutdown of sorts and that passing a clean funding extension would effectively green-light the status quo and potentially undercut pending court cases challenging Trump and Musk.” Related read: “Dems’ DOGE problem may be bigger than they thought,” by POLITICO’s Adam Wren and Elena Schneider GOP PLANS TWO-TRACK STRATEGY: Both GOP appropriations chairs announced yesterday they are planning a “two-track strategy” in an effort to keep the government’s lights on, but seem less enthusiastic about Trump’s preferred “full-year funding deal,” POLITICO’s Ben Leonard, Jennifer Scholtes, Mia McCarthy and Nicholas Wu report. Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) “told reporters she and her counterparts were preparing a ‘yearlong’ continuing resolution, or CR, ‘but we’re also working on a short-term CR that would allow us time to negotiate the appropriations bills.’” Meanwhile, GOP lawmakers confirmed yesterday that they expect to release the text of a spending stopgap as soon as this weekend, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill reports. Top-ed: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) cautioned against a full-year funding solution in a WSJ op-ed published last night, arguing that setting a standardized funding level for the rest of the fiscal year would severely harm military and defense programs.
| | | | A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce:  
The U.S. Chamber stands with policymakers in support of pro-growth tax policies that raise wages for workers and improve the standard of living for all Americans. Learn more. | | | BEST OF THE REST CONFIRMATION STATION: As expected, the Senate confirmed Linda McMahon to head up the Education Department in a 51–45 party-line vote, POLITICO’s Mackenzie Wilkes writes. McMahon’s confirmation comes as Education Department employees faced a midnight deadline last night to resign or take a $25,000 buy-out as Trump works to eliminate the department entirely. Happening today: Trump’s choice for the No. 3 post at the Pentagon, Elbridge Colby, will have his confirmation hearing before Senate Armed Services at 9:30 a.m. … Matthew Whitaker, Trump’s pick for NATO ambassador, and deputy secretary of State nominees Christopher Landau and Michael Rigas, will face the Senate Foreign Relations committee for their confirmation hearings at 10 a.m. Committee Dems are expected to grill all three on Trump’s relationship with Ukraine and the future of the U.S. in NATO, Axios’ Hans Nichols reports. RETRIBUTION TOUR 2025: “Trump’s appointees are taking the reins at the Justice Department and the Federal Trade Commission amid considerable interest across the political spectrum as to how his administration will enforce antitrust law,” POLITICO’s Ankush Khardori writes this morning. And “in a sign of how antagonistic the Trump-era FTC may be toward its predecessor, a senior FTC official tells me the agency has now begun an internal investigation into leaks to the press during the tenure of FTC Chair Lina Khan. The official said they believed there was an inappropriate relationship between career FTC staff hired under Khan and what the official described as ‘left-wing’ news outlets. Khan declined to comment.” Inside the FBI: The head of the FBI's New York field office, James Dennehy, is out of a job just one month after he encouraged his staff to "dig in" to Trump’s decision to fire top FBI officials and demand the identities of all agents involved in Jan. 6 investigations, NBC News’ Ken Dilanian, Jonathan Dienst, Ryan Reilly and Tom Winter report. “It is widely believed inside the FBI that the resistance by Dennehy — along with the acting director, Brian Driscoll, and the acting deputy director, Rob Kissane — prevented a mass firing of thousands of FBI officials who worked on the Jan. 6 cases.” And in the media: Former top WaPo editor Marty Baron wrote a piece for The Atlantic excoriating WaPo owner Jeff Bezos’ recent controversial moves at the paper. “The big question is why Bezos’s language and behavior have changed so dramatically,” Baron writes. “I can’t get into Bezos’s head, of course, but one answer must lie in an indisputable fact: Trump is less calm, less settled, and far more vindictive.”
| | TALK OF THE TOWN | | SPOTTED at Osteria Mozza last night: Joe and Jill Biden.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: The Senate Leadership Fund — the powerful super PAC tasked with holding and expanding Republicans’ Senate majority — has hired Taylor Lioce, former finance director of the RNC, to lead its finance operation. He’ll work alongside Paula Dukes, a longtime John Thune ally, who has been brought on as a senior finance consultant. Katharyn Caldwell will continue to serve as deputy finance director.
— Valcour has added Bill Killion and Blake Center to its global strategy team. Killion previously was deputy director for Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign in Pennsylvania, and is a Trump State Department alum. Center previously was a legislative assistant for Rep. Vince Fong (R-Calif.) and is a Kevin McCarthy, Marsha Blackburn and Bob Corker alum. TRANSITIONS — Harry Fones is now principal deputy assistant secretary for public affairs at DHS. He previously was comms director for the House Freedom Caucus, where Nate Madden has stepped in on an acting basis. … Mike Fragoso is joining Torridon Law as a partner. He previously was chief counsel to then-Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. … Katie Lane has been elevated to chief of staff for Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.). She previously was chief counsel, and is a Jones Day alum. … … Diego Andrades is now assistant director at the USC Center for the Political Future. He previously was special assistant to the CEO of AmeriCorps under the Biden administration. … Kevin Garvey is now a partner at Steptoe LLP. He previously was associate general counsel and assistant secretary at the Chamber of Commerce and is a Trump White House and USTR alum. … Tara McGee is now senior director for federal affairs on tax and trade issues at American Clean Power Association. She previously was a trade and finance policy adviser for Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), and is a Roger Wicker, John Cornyn and Randy Neugebauer alum. ENGAGED — Althea Dillon, comms director for Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Ga.), and Liam Walsh, an associate VP at Institutional Shareholder Services, got engaged on Saturday on the Spanish Steps near their home in Kalorama. The couple met as students at Occidental College and had their first date while summer interns in D.C. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sens. James Lankford (R-Okla.) and Tina Smith (D-Minn.) … Reps. Chris Smith (R-N.J.) and Troy Downing (R-Mont.) … NBC’s Vaughn Hillyard … Alex Butcher-Nesbitt of the Clooney Foundation for Justice … Emily Bazelon … former Energy Secretary Rick Perry … Doug Hoelscher … Ellen Gilmer of Bloomberg Government … Shirley Henry … UNICEF’s Cathy Russell … Maria Recio … Jesse Solis … POLITICO’s Mark McQuillan, Nick Reisman and Raychelle Santos … Seth Washington … Allison Putala … Kate Bennett … Stephanie Gidigbi Jenkins … Abby Jagoda … Fenton’s Valerie Jean-Charles … Jennifer Loraine … Larkin Parker of Sen. Michael Bennet’s (D-Colo.) office … Scott Cunningham … Simone Ward … Callista Gingrich … Brooke Nethercott of the House Financial Services GOP Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce: Ahead of President Trump's address to Congress tonight, the U.S. Chamber encourages policymakers to continue to advance tax policies that drive economic growth and enable higher paychecks for American workers. Permanently extending the pro-growth reforms in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will ensure employers have the certainty and stability they need to make long-term investments that drive growth, accelerate productivity, and increase prosperity across the economy—ultimately helping millions of American families meet their needs and achieve their dreams while bolstering America's global competitiveness. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | |
