| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard | Presented by The U.S. Chamber of Commerce | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | Good Monday morning. This is Jack Blanchard. LAST NIGHT’S TV: “Anora”, the Brooklyn-based dramedy about a young sex worker and a Russian oligarch’s son, was the runaway winner at last night’s Academy Awards ceremony, winning five Oscars, including best picture. “‘Anora’ is having a good night,” host Conan O'Brien told the audience part-way through the evening. “I guess Americans are excited to see somebody finally stand up to a powerful Russian.” Yowch. |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
President Donald Trump insisted last week that tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico will go into effect on Tuesday. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo | DO YOU GET DÉJÀ VU, HUH? President Donald Trump must decide whether to slap America’s closest neighbors with eye-watering 25 percent trade tariffs ahead of a midnight deadline looming tonight. The president insisted last week that tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico “will indeed go into effect” on Tuesday due to the “very high and unacceptable levels” of fentanyl “pouring” into the U.S. across its northern and southern borders. He also vowed to double the existing Trump tariffs on Chinese imports, to 20 percent. The big question now is whether Trump chooses to offer last-minute reprieves to Canadian PM Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and postpone — or water down — these proposed tariffs at the 11th hour, exactly as he did last month. And if this all feels a little repetitive, that’s because it is. Hint hint: The prospect of a partial U.S. climbdown was floated yesterday by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who told Fox News that Trump is considering reducing tariffs down from the proposed 25 percent level. “He's sort of thinking about right now how exactly he wants to play it with Mexico and Canada,” Lutnick said. “And that is a fluid situation. There are going to be tariffs on Tuesday on Mexico and Canada — exactly what they are, we're going to leave that for the president and his team to negotiate.” The quid pro quo: One theory is that Trump will cite the recent extraordinary collapse in illegal migration numbers as evidence his hard-hitting border policies are working — and claim the ax he left hanging over America's neighbors has played its part. Tomorrow’s tariffs would therefore be reduced in recognition of that combined effort. But given that with Trump, everything is a “fluid situation.” We’d better just see how the day pans out. Trump’s Truth Social page is the place to wait for any updates, if you’re so inclined. The true north, strong and free: Empty or otherwise, Trump’s threats are certainly having an effect north of the border, where Canadians resumed their new favorite pastime — booing the “Star-Spangled Banner” — at a WWE event in Toronto on Saturday night. (Vid here of singer Elizabeth Irving getting both barrels from the crowd.) Who knows, Canadians might really stick it to Trump and re-elect Trudeau’s Liberal Party later this year. The Conservative Party’s poll lead has collapsed since Trump started his blistering attacks. Meanwhile in Mexico: The Mexican government has its own tit-for-tat response to Trump’s complaints about fentanyl smuggling, pointing out that a significant portion of the weapons used by Mexican drug and crime gangs actually cross the border, entering Mexico from the U.S. A lawsuit seeking to hold major firearms manufacturers accountable for gun violence in Mexico will be heard by the U.S. Supreme Court tomorrow, WaPo’s Mary Beth Sheridan and Ann Marimow report. The Don in the House: All of this comes ahead of the showpiece moment of the political week tomorrow night, when Trump addresses a joint session of Congress in the House chamber. Plenty of Republicans present will be privately nervous about the inflationary aspect of his tariff agenda, though they’ll no doubt roar their approval with the TV cameras fixed upon them. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to assuage some of those concerns on CBS News yesterday, insisting that “tariffs did not affect prices” during Trump’s first term and that other government measures — such as efforts to reduce energy bills and cut regulation — will have a counter effect. Not everyone is convinced by that. For example … The Democrats, who are trying — with middling success — not to be too scattershot in their opposition to Trump, but to focus mainly on the issue they think most likely to win them back power in 2026 and 2028: the economy. Expect much citation this week of a Peterson Institute report suggesting Trump’s tariffs could cost the typical U.S. household an additional $1,200 a year. (Bessent called the report “alarmist” yesterday.) FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: In the blue corner: Certainly, much has been made of the Dems’ decision to hand the official response to Trump's speech to freshman Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), a moderate who won her swing state seat in November with disciplined economic messaging — in the same cycle Trump carried her state, no less. Look for the party to try and exert similar self-control across the entire caucus. In a walkup piece ahead of Tuesday’s speech, my POLITICO colleague Nicholas Wu reports there will be no mass Dem walkout this year and precious few PR stunts, like, say, ripping up Trump’s address. “A protest isn’t going to win us the next election,” says Rep. Ami Bera (D-Calif.). The strategy this year, 10 different Democratic lawmakers tell Nick, is to focus on “the impacts of Trump’s second-term policies.” Imagine that. Let’s talk about eggs, baby: There are Republicans, too, who believe Trump has drifted too far from the core economic message which won him the November election. These days, “Trump is more likely to talk about federal workers, diversity programs and foreign policy than the price of eggs,” the WSJ’s Tarini Parti, Xavier Martinez and Josh Dawsey note. “I’m nervous about it,” veteran Trump adviser Stephen Moore tells the paper. “The Trump administration needs to keep its eye on what’s happening with prices. It should be a top priority. The trend is a little bit troubling.” FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: The American Petroleum Institute today launches a new two-week ad campaign focusing on domestic oil and natural gas production and timed to the joint session speech. The 7-figure buy will run on cable news channels in the D.C. market as well as on OTT platforms, digital and social channels in Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Louisiana. The 30-second spot
| | | | A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce: When Main Street businesses have a competitive tax code, local economies thrive, and workers benefit from higher paychecks and more job opportunities. Permanently extending the pro-growth reforms in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would prevent a $4 trillion tax increase on American families and employers. This permanency would provide the certainty and stability needed for long-term investments, driving economic growth, boosting productivity, and ensuring prosperity across the economy. Learn more. | | | UKRAINE ON THE BRAIN VANCE LIKE THE WHOLE WORLD IS WATCHING: Vice President JD Vance will give his first TV interview this evening since triggering last Friday’s almighty row between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Vance will be on — where else? — Sean Hannity’s Fox News show at 9 p.m. to give the MAGA crowd his take on that era-defining White House photo op which spiraled so remarkably out of control. POLITICO’s White House Bureau Chief Dasha Burns writes in … It wasn’t the central storyline from Friday’s diplomatic meltdown, but it’s the B plot that reveals a lot about a partnership that’s growing increasingly consequential: Vance did not hesitate to take the lead in chastising Zelenskyy for his demeanor in the Oval Office. A few notable points, via Dasha:
- Vance felt comfortable taking the spotlight. Anyone who knows Trump knows that this approach is a high-wire act: one wrong move and you’re done for. Vance was anything but timid, and Trump seemed to appreciate it both on and off screen. “They were totally on the same page,” said a White House official. “President Trump was happy with how the Vice President jumped in.”
- Once in a while, “Trump does tire of being the tip of the spear,” a person close to the president explained. “So if you go out and fight for him and do it right — he loves it.” Perhaps Vance sensed that at this moment. Bringing me to the third point…
- Trump and Vance were synced up. The source close to Trump also told me it seemed clear that Vance spoke to Trump and knew how he felt about Zelenskyy and Ukraine going in. That’s different than saying this was planned; rather, the point is that the two were in sync ahead of time. That gels with what I consistently hear from those who have watched Vance and Trump interact: “Their instincts are aligned, and they are genuinely friends,” said the White House official. “That leads to a strong degree of trust.”
That trust was on full display on Friday, as the tone of the Zelenskyy meeting shifted dramatically once Vance interjected, with Trump quickly following suit. And in the space of a few minutes, the postwar world order was shaken. VPs perennially face one big question: How much influence do they really have? At a critical moment — on one of the most pressing issues in geopolitics, in the most public forum possible — Vance gave a potent example of his current pull. THE KING AND I: Zelenskyy, of course, is now back in Europe licking his wounds — and will today meet King Charles III for talks in London (well ahead of the grand state visit Trump accepted last week.) Zelenskyy was hosted by U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer yesterday as part of what looks like a pointed show of European support for the Ukraine president. Will he say sorry? Republicans still want Zelesnkyy to apologise for Friday’s war of words, though he made it pretty clear in his Fox News interview straight afterward that he feels the row was not his fault. Zelesnkyy certainly seems to have got the message about his supposed lack of gratitude, however, stating again via a video message last night that “we are grateful for all the support we have received from the United States … There hasn’t been a single day when we haven’t felt grateful.” The path to peace: For his part, Starmer hosted the leaders of well over a dozen allied nations for a conference in London yesterday — numerous EU member states plus Canada and Ukraine — in an attempt to build a “coalition of the willing” to secure peace. Britain and France are now saying they will take a leading role in a European effort to pull together a new peace plan to present to Donald Trump — a remarkable role reversal from where we were just a few days ago. Starmer is promising U.K. “boots on the ground” and “planes in the air,” while French President Emmanuel Macron is calling on NATO members to spend between 3–3.5 percent of GDP on defense. POLITICO’s Stefan Boscia has the story. AN ALT. VIEW FROM RUSSIA: The Kremlin says the Trump administration’s shifting stance on Ukraine and Europe now “largely aligns with our vision,” WaPo’s Francesca Ebel reports from Moscow. “The new administration is rapidly changing all foreign policy configurations,” Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov said on state television. “If the political will of the two leaders, President Putin and President Trump, is maintained, this path can be quite quick and successful.” It’s really quite the shift. SPEAKING OF WHICH: We’ve seen quite the shift from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said yesterday “he was ‘puzzled’ by the ‘absurd’ pushback on the administration” over the Zelenskyy row. Rubio “said Mr. Trump was being unfairly criticized when he was trying to prevent further destruction by bringing peace to the region,” NYT’s Minho Kim writes. (Apropos of nothing, here’s what Rubio used to think about defending Ukraine.) HAPPENING IN THE BACKGROUND: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has “ordered U.S. Cyber Command to halt offensive operations against Russia,” NYT’s Julian Barnes, David Sanger and Helene Cooper report. “Hegseth’s instructions, part of a larger re-evaluation of all operations against Russia, have not been publicly explained.” The internet conspiracy theory wing is naturally in overdrive.
| | | | A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce: Competitive, pro-growth tax policy is essential to growing the economy, raising wages for workers, and improving the standard of living for all Americans. Adopting a current-policy baseline would allow Congress to deliver permanent tax relief, and help retain and attract businesses, jobs, investment, and innovation, ensuring the U.S. remains globally competitive. Learn more. | | | THE MAGA REVOLUTION YOU DO THE MATH: Education Department staffers have until midnight tonight to decide whether to quit their posts and take a $25,000 cash payout. The DOGE-inspired ultimatum — revealed last Friday via a department-wide email obtained by POLITICO’s Rebecca Carballo — was billed as a “a one-time offer” ahead of what will be “a very significant reduction in force” for the department. Trump and Education Secretary-designate Linda McMahon have already set out plans to shutter the entire department, putting added weight behind today’s cash offer. Speaking of Linda: The Senate will vote on McMahon’s confirmation at 5:30 p.m. today. DEATH BY A THOUSAND CUTS: Nicholas Enrich, a longtime career USAID official and the acting administrator for global health, was placed on leave yesterday after disseminating a whistleblower memo directly contradicting Secretary Rubio’s claim that the most vital aid programs have been protected. The memo describes “the U.S. government’s ‘failure’ to provide lifesaving assistance around the world” because of the cuts by DOGE and the Trump administration, WaPo’s John Hudson reports. ‘DEFEND THE SPEND’: A parade of executives at some of Washington’s top consulting firms have been meeting with top Trump officials in an effort to save their government contracts, WSJ’s Chip Cutter reports. Top-level officials at Booz Allen, Accenture, Guidehouse and others are meeting with Josh Gruenbaum, the Federal Acquisition Service commissioner within the GSA, lest their services land on the federal chopping block. What the admin wants: Gruenbaum says the Trump administration “sees value in consulting — particularly in rolling out advanced technology and modernizing government agencies,” but that there is less interest in contracts “providing market research and analysis or supporting work on topics the Trump administration has de-emphasized, such as diversity, equity and inclusion issues.” ‘High IQ individuals’ update: Last week, DOGE posted on its so-called “wall of receipts” that it had canceled a Coast Guard contract worth more than $50 million. In reality, the contract actually ended years ago, NYT’s David Fahrenthold, Margot Sanger-Katz and Jeremy Singer-Vine report in their walk-through of DOGE’s many erroneously reported savings. The “repeated errors … seem to call into question the team members’ competence — whether they understand the government well enough to cut it while avoiding catastrophe.” SPOTTED AROUND TOWN: New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is continuing her crusade against Trump and Elon Musk’s gutting of the federal government, posting ads on the digital directory displays throughout Washington’s Union Station, inviting ousted federal workers to seek jobs in the Empire State. “DOGE said you’re fired? We say: You’re hired! New York wants you!” the ad reads, with an image of the Statue of Liberty emulating the iconic Uncle Sam U.S. Army posters. See the ad. TEACHING A NEW DOGE OLD TRICKS: In the early 2000s, Mitch Daniels established himself as something of a knife to government as OMB director under former President George W. Bush. He has some advice for Musk’s DOGE team: “I certainly would have cautioned against throwing out a number that’s just preposterous,” Daniels told POLITICO’s Adam Wren and Shia Kapos of the $2 trillion DOGE savings benchmark. He continued: “There’s a real value in an effort like this because they illuminate the fact that the government does a lot of very silly or unnecessary or even counterproductive things, but I would have urged that they go achieve some real success first and then talk. Talk less, do more.”
| | | | A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce:  
Adopting a current-policy baseline would help Congress deliver permanent tax relief for American families and businesses. Learn more. | | | MEANWHILE ON THE HILL JOHNSON’S PICKLE: Speaker Mike Johnson enters this week with multiple promises to keep to various corners of his conference as the Senate takes up the House-passed budget plan. And — as ever — Johnson’s got precious little room to maneuver, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill writes this morning. The factions: “Among those he now needs to placate are tax writers who want a costly permanent extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, hard-liners who want even deeper spending cuts if the tax provisions expand, swing-district members who want assurances on safety-net programs and even billionaire Elon Musk, who has raised public concerns about Johnson’s plan. That’s to say nothing of Trump himself, who has sided at times with all of those competing factions.” Good luck! The X factor: “There is one alarming wrinkle for Johnson and senior Republicans, however: Musk has aired criticism of the speaker’s plan — most recently on Friday, when he approvingly shared an X posting by the only Republican to vote against it.” With friends like these… FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: The Congressional Progressive Caucus and New Dems are sending a letter today backed by House Democratic leadership imploring Johnson to abandon any proposed cuts to Medicaid, Social Security and Medicare. The letter has more than 200 signatures, essentially spanning the entire ideological spectrum of the Democratic caucus. Read the full letter PUSHING FOR PUERTO RICO: A high-level delegation is hitting the Hill today and tomorrow for the Puerto Rico Equality and Statehood Summit. The delegation is led by Puerto Rico’s GOP Gov. Jenniffer González-Colón and more than a dozen members of Puerto Rico’s House and Senate. It also comes as Puerto Rico’s statehood push seems to be gaining some traction, including from Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), who recently signaled some support for the effort after meeting with González-Colón. FLOTUS FILES: First lady Melania Trump will also be on the Hill today, where she is expected to deliver her first public comments since her husband returned to office, hosting a roundtable discussion to boost a bill to protect against deepfake and non-consensual so-called “revenge pornography,” CNN’s Betsy Klein reports. The TAKE IT DOWN Act, introduced by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), passed the Senate last month with bipartisan support, but has yet to pass in the House. It would “criminalize the publication of non-consensual intimate imagery,” and put pressure on social media companies to offer stronger protections against such actions. BEST OF THE REST ALMOST AN ENDORSEMENT: In response to the current measles outbreak in Texas, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has penned an op-ed for Fox News urging parents to “consult with their healthcare providers to understand their options to get the MMR vaccine,” while cautioning that the “decision to vaccinate is a personal one.” Better late than never? Kennedy’s words come as health experts have ripped his lack of action on the measles outbreak, which, of course, comes in the broader context of Kennedy’s “long track record of sowing distrust in vaccines,” NYT’s Teddy Rosenbluth writes. SELF-DEALING WATCH: On Truth Social yesterday, Trump announced that the U.S. would set up a crypto “strategic reserve” that would include five digital tokens. “It remains unclear how such a reserve would be created — or whether it could bring any benefit to the country,” WSJ’s Vicky Ge Huang writes in summary of the announcement. But the post from Trump had an immediate impact for the industry, boosting crypto prices across the spectrum and ending something of a recent market slide. ABORTION ACTION: Many of the people who broke into and blocked access to abortion clinics, who were among the nearly two dozen people Trump pardoned in January, are now vowing to launch a new wave of civil disobedience, POLITICO’s Alice Miranda Ollstein reports.
| | TALK OF THE TOWN | | Bill Murray exchanged words with Bob Woodward over the latter’s 1984 book about John Belushi (h/t NY Mag’s Ben Terris). Former Olympic ice skaters Brian Boitano and Kristi Yamaguchi hosted a “Legacy on Ice” memorial event at Capital One Arena last night to honor the many skaters who were killed in the crash over the Potomac in January. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a Kennedy Center premier of “Becoming Katharine Graham” last night hosted by Don Graham and Warren Buffett: Antony Blinken and Evan Ryan, Bill Gates, Bill Murray, David Rubenstein, Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), Patty Stonesifer and Michael Kinsley, Josh Dawsey, Bob Woodward, Maureen Dowd, Robert Costa, Kaitlan Collins, Meridith McGraw, Sara Fischer, Tyler Pager, Lally Weymouth, Amanda Bennett, Katie Bennett, Sally Quinn, David Ignatius, Katharine Weymouth, Major Garrett, Becky Quick, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Bobby Kotick, Dina Kawar, Phil Rucker, Andrea Mitchell, Anne Kornblut, Lee Satterfield and Patrick Steel, Ziad Ojakli, Amanda Katz, Lachlan Cartwright, Mary Jordan, Joel and Laura Cox Kaplan, Sylvia Burwell, Ashley Parker and Michael Bender, Elaine Chao, Annette de la Renta, Jessica Toonkel, Dana Mattioli, John Hudson, Shane Harris, Rosalind Helderman and Matea Gold. — SPOTTED at a book talk at Politics and Prose on Saturday for Edward Fishman’s “Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare,” ($40) moderated by Elizabeth Ralph: Lepi Jha Fishman, Gail Ross, David Cohen, Dan Fried, David McKean, Elizabeth Rosenberg, Amanda Mansour, Jane Rhee, Alexandra Kahan, Matt Goodman, Stephen Sestanovich, Andrew Keller and Alex Keeney. TRANSITIONS — Liz Johnson is joining Emerson Collective as senior director of policy and government affairs. She previously was chief of staff to Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), and is a Kelly Ayotte and Susan Collins alum. … Christine Emba is now a resident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. She most recently was a staff writer at The Atlantic. … DJ Griffin is now press secretary for Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.). He most recently was comms director for Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.), and is an RNC alum. … … Kyle Wiley is now senior manager of global government affairs at ServiceNow. He previously was co-founder of Connector Inc. and is an Energy Department alum. … Burden Walker is joining Arnold & Porter as a partner. He previously was head of DOJ's Consumer Protection Branch and senior counselor to the AG. … Erick Sanchez is now comms director for the Ohio Valley and Southeast at the Laborers' International Union of North America. He previously was director of comms at the Lubetzky Family Foundation. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) … Reps. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), Bryan Steil (R-Wis.), Jill Tokuda (D-Hawaii) and George Whitesides (D-Calif.) … Herschel Walker … Marc Short … Ira Glass … Dan Conston … WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom (6-0) … Elaina Plott Calabro … Ron Chernow … Alex Smith … POLITICO’s Lily Bhandari … George Little … Jesse Hunt … Susan Zirinsky … Mayer Brown’s Andrew Olmem … Tim Morrison … Peter Mirijanian … Carlton Carroll … Steve Smith … Hadar Arazi… Michael Remez … Roll Call’s Jason Dick … Patrick Gavin … Laura Engquist of Rep. Troy Balderson’s (R-Ohio) office … John Roscoe … Jason Gerson … Spencer Hurwitz … Hannah Blatt … Ghada Alkiek … Charles Cote … Mike Yelovich … former Reps. Paul Cook (R-Calif.) and Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) … Ajay Kuntamukkala … Alexa Henning … Nicholas Hamson of MapleBridge Strategies … Mandate Media’s Devon Brown … Cameron French … Cecilie Combs … Tyler Ann H. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce: Ahead of the President's address to Congress, the U.S. Chamber is encouraging policymakers to continue to advance tax policies that drive economic growth and enable higher paychecks for American workers. Permanently extending the pro-growth reforms in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will ensure employers have the certainty and stability they need to make long-term investments that drive growth, accelerate productivity, and increase prosperity across the economy—ultimately helping millions of American families meet their needs and achieve their dreams while bolstering America's global competitiveness. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | |
