| | | |  | | By Bethany Irvine | | Presented by |  | | | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | | 
People work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Monday, March 31, 2025. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig) | AP | MARKETS TUMBLE AS TRADE WAR ESCALATES — President Donald Trump’s tit-for-tat trade war has markets at home, and around the world, nervous. As trading officially opened this morning in the U.S., stocks slid as nervous investors — fueled by uncertainty ahead of Wednesday’s big tariff announcement — ditched their shares. Now, the market is on track to close out its worst quarter in three years as investors brace for Trump to announce the latest slew of tariffs on April 2, which he’s dubbed “Liberation Day.” The numbers: The S&P 500 index is down 0.51% … Nasdaq composite is down 1.13% … the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.26%, per Bloomberg’s market index. The latest drop comes after stocks had already suffered their second-worst day of the year Friday, as fears swirl around inflation and consumer confidence. Investors were further shaken by Trump’s weekend comment that new tariffs wouldn’t simply be “reciprocal,” but would instead affect “all countries.” Beyond our borders: Global markets also took a hit today as tariff fears triggered anxiety around the globe: “In Japan, the Nikkei 225 index dropped 4%. South Korea’s Kospi sank 3%, and France’s CAC 40 fell 1.5%,” AP’s Stan Choe reports. Though we’re still waiting to see the full impact of Trump’s tariffs, NYT’s Damien Cave writes that the “America First” rhetoric emerging from the White House has confirmed for U.S. allies “that America can no longer be trusted.” How it’s playing with voters … It’s a chicken-or-egg situation when looking at consumer sentiment. A recent slew of data shows that American consumers are shying away from spending as they fear stock market drops and the impact of the tariffs, WaPo’s Abha Bhattarai reports: “Strikingly, economists say Americans of all income levels, including the wealthiest, are rethinking their spending — in what could be a pivotal warning.” Meanwhile, Trump’s approval numbers surrounding trade have taken a dip, according to a new AP-NORC poll. Only 4 in 10 Americans support his handling of the economy vs. the 60% who say they “strongly or somewhat disapprove” of the ongoing trade negotiations with other countries, AP’s Amelia Thomson-Deveaux and Linley Sanders report. While Trump’s approval rating remains high on immigration, his overall job performance numbers have also lowered: “About 4 in 10 U.S. adults approve of the way Trump is handling his job as president, and more than half disapprove.” Still, tariffs remain a key sticking point for voters, even among his GOP base: “About 7 in 10 Republicans approve of Trump’s handling of trade — still relatively high, but lower than the roughly 9 in 10 who approve of his approach on immigration.” A new CBS News/YouGov poll also shows most voters think Trump is “too focused” on tariffs, and should be more focused on lowering prices instead, CBS News’ Anthony Salvanto, Jennifer De Pinto, Kabir Khanna, Fred Backus report. Something to watch: One critical data point could be Friday’s monthly jobs report from the Labor Department, an oft-used measure of the health of the market. Ahead of the release, economists are forecasting “a 140,000 gain in the employment number for March, down slightly from the 151,000 increase in February,” U.S. News and World Report’s Tim Smart reports. Related read: “White House Weighs Helping Farmers as Trump Escalates Trade War,” by NYT’s Tony Romm Good Monday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at birvine@politico.com.
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Learn more. | | | | SAD UPDATE — Officials have recovered the bodies of three of the four U.S. soldiers who went missing in Lithuania last week after their 63-ton armored vehicle was recovered from a peat bog this morning, NBC News’ Mirna Alsharif, Marlene Lenthang and Mosheh Gains report. Search and rescue operations continue for the fourth soldier. Military officials said the group was on a training mission to “repair and tow an immobilized tactical vehicle” before becoming submerged: “The identities of the soldiers, who were all from the 1st Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division, are being withheld pending family notification.”
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Displaced Palestinians arrive in Khan Younis, Gaza after the Israeli military issued sweeping evacuation orders covering most of Rafah on Monday. | AP | 1. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: As the world awaits for the next potential ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas to solidify, Israeli military officials put out a widespread evacuation order today for areas of southern Gaza — a strong signal that more ground operations may be imminent, AP’s Wafaa Shurafa and Fatma Khaled report from the Gaza Strip. Israeli military spokesman Avichay Adraee posted a map of the affected areas and told Palestinans to relocate to the coastal side of northern Gaza. The military “is returning to fighting with great force to take out the capabilities of terrorist organizations in these areas,” he wrote. Though Israel was supposed to withdraw from the area following its January ceasefire deal with Hamas, it later refused. But, but, but: “It was not clear how many people were still in Rafah when Mr. Adraee made his post and how many intended to follow his instructions,” per NYT’s Adam Rasgon and Ameera Harouda. “Adraee has issued [evacuation] orders for other parts of Gaza, but many residents of those areas have seemingly ignored them.” 2. DEMOCRACY DIGEST: Trump’s slash and burn approach to federal funding could leave elections around the country vulnerable to serious security breaches, POLITICO’s Maggie Miller reports. DHS’ Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s programs for securing elections are officially on hold, meaning “states could lose access to information on emerging threats and election officials may be left without funding for key security services.” What's more, should Trump permanently defund CISA, “states will be forced to come up with funding” themselves. 3. RUSSIA-UKRAINE LATEST: The Kremlin has responded after Trump told NBC News over the weekend that he’s “pissed off” at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s posturing over a potential ceasefire deal to end the war in Ukraine. In a call with reporters, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov cast doubt on NBC’s reporting, claiming Trump’s remarks were probably “paraphrased rather than direct quotes,” CNN’s Anna Chernova reports. “We continue to work with the American side, first of all, on building our bilateral relations, which suffered enormous damage during the previous administration,” Peskov said. Peskov also said there wasn’t a scheduled call between the two world leaders this week, but one could be organized “if necessary.” Despite Moscow’s repeated claims that it will cooperate with the U.S. to reach a deal, NYT’s Paul Sonne and Marc Santora report that the Kremlin shows “no sign” of backing off on the battlefield, as “Russian drones are bombarding Ukrainian cities with intense frequency and ferocity.” Meanwhile, some lawmakers are urging Trump to do more to push back against the aggression. In a new NYT op-ed, Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) accuses Trump and his GOP colleagues of handling the Russian president with “velvet gloves,” urging the White House to double down on efforts to defend Ukraine.
| | | | Don't miss POLITICO's annual Health Care Summit on April 2! Hear from TrueMed co-founder Calley Means, Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.), Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.), Rep. Diana Harshbarger (R-Tenn.), Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.) and more on the future of health care policy. Register today. | | | | | 4. DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS: Former Taiwanese officials and advisers have embraced the secret internal Pentagon memo that outlined the Trump administration’s plan to deter a potential Chinese takeover as a surprisingly strong signal of support from the U.S., WaPo’s Lily Kuo and Pei-Lin Wu report from Taipei. The memo, reported over the weekend by WaPo, comes after Trump’s “America First” platform had concerned Taiwanese analysts, who feared the U.S. might shift in its promise to protect Taiwan. What they’re saying: “Taiwan has not seen such a clear statement from the United States until now,” said Jun-ji Shih, a former Taiwanese vice premier. “This Department of Defense memo makes it very clear. It puts Taiwan’s importance in the highest position and clearly says what should be done.” 5. STANDING DOWN: Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Ga.) is stepping back from a run for Georgia governor to focus on her husband’s health “as he undergoes treatment for complications from a recent cancer diagnosis,” The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein reports. Though she hasn’t rejected a bid entirely, McBath said she’s suspending her exploratory committee, which “injects fresh uncertainty into an unsettled Democratic field as the party seeks to reclaim the Governor’s Mansion for the first time in more than two decades,” Bluestein writes. 6. EMPIRE STATE OF MIND: Just days out from an April 3 filing deadline, embattled New York City Mayor Eric Adams and his defense team are urging federal judge Dale Ho to drop his bribery case so Adams “can run unencumbered,” POLITICO’s Joe Anuta reports from New York. Still, Adams’ chances for reelection “appear to be in serious doubt, as he trails former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the polls, has a 20 percent approval rating and was denied public matching funds of more than $4 million.” 7. SCHOOL DAZE: “Trump wants to move student loans to SBA. Republicans aren’t so sure,” by POLITICO’s Rebecca Carballo: “Education Department officials skeptical of Trump’s SBA plan met the week after his announcement to discuss if the Treasury Department should manage the massive portfolio instead of SBA … Some conservatives are concerned about SBA’s lack of experience with colleges and universities and the time crunch its staff will be under to learn the complex student loan system.”
| | | | Cut through policy complexity and turn intelligence into action with POLITICO’s Policy Intelligence Assistant—a new suite of tools designed to save you time and demonstrate your impact more easily than ever—available only to Pro subscribers. Save hours, uncover critical insights instantly, and stay ahead of the next big shift. Power your strategy today—learn more. | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | The White House Correspondents Association pushed back against the White House’s effort to take over the press room seating chart. Black Lives Matter plaza has been officially dismantled. TRANSITIONS — The Adwell Group has added Camille Torres as SVP and Les Umberger as creative director. Torres previously was incumbent protection director at the DCCC. Umberger previously was owner and creative director of Mod Creations. … Michael Gehlken is now deputy VP at Context Strategies. He most recently was a Dallas Cowboys reporter for The Dallas Morning News. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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