Trump’s world order

Mar 13, 2025

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Good Thursday morning. This is Jack Blanchard.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Pete Buttigieg is expected to announce today he will not run for Michigan’s open Senate seat, Playbook’s Midwest guru Adam Wren emails in, clearing a path for a potential 2028 presidential campaign instead.

Starting gun fired: The former Transportation secretary previously confirmed he was “looking” at a Senate campaign, and discussed the prospect with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Buttigieg’s decision to rule himself out is framed by allies and people in his inner circle as a bid to put himself in the strongest possible position to seek the presidency, Adam reports, given the severe challenge of attempting to run campaigns in both 2026 and 2028. Buttigieg had already ruled himself out of a run for Michigan governor, despite positive polling.

Axe verdict: “Pete would have been a formidable candidate for the Senate had he chosen to run,” said David Axelrod, the longtime Democratic operative and a mentor to Buttigieg, who spoke with him yesterday. ”But had he won in ’26, it would almost certainly have taken him out of the conversation for ’28. This certainly keeps that option open. Beyond that, I have a sense that he wanted to spend more time with his family, and with people in communities like his, where the conversations and concerns are so different than the ones you hear in the echo chamber of Washington.” More from Adam

Heating up nicely: Buttigieg’s decision throws another prominent name into an increasingly crowded field of potential Democratic candidates for 2028. Last week, POLITICO revealed outgoing California Gov. Gavin Newsom was launching a high-profile podcast series, reaching across the aisle to interview key MAGA figures. He’s already garnering millions of YouTube hits, and few Dems are in doubt about his intentions. And yesterday, we scooped that Rahm Emanuel, the former White House chief of staff and Chicago mayor, is also mulling a 2028 bid. Expect more high-profile Democrats to test the water in the weeks ahead.

Also not ruling out a 2028 run: Steve Bannon. Hoo boy.

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DRIVING THE DAY

President Donald Trump is seen.

President Donald Trump waits for the arrival of Ireland's Prime Minister Micheál Martin at the White House in Washington, March 12, 2025. | Alex Brandon/AP

STUCK IN A RUTTE: Donald Trump will host the head of NATO at the White House today with the future of the Western alliance hanging in the balance. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is in town for a working lunch with a president who, in just a few tumultuous weeks, has profoundly shaken Europe’s faith in American military backing. There’s no joint presser planned this afternoon, but select journos will get the opportunity to quiz the two leaders at a televised Oval Office meet-cute at 12:20 p.m. The chances of Trump playing nice about an alliance he has rubbished for years feel somewhat remote, at best.

Reminder: Trump’s attacks on NATO were a regular feature of his first term, but since Jan. 20 the ante has been upped significantly. Close allies like VP JD Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have publicly laid into NATO members, and last week Trump openly questioned the alliance’s founding principle — the “Article 5” agreement that an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all. Quizzed about an NBC News report that he would not protect NATO members who fail to meet his defense spending demands, Trump confirmed: “It’s common sense, right? If they don’t pay, I’m not going to defend them.” Rutte won’t like that kind of talk one bit.

On safer ground: Rutte, a conservative former leader of Holland, has done his best to get out in front on this, making clear he supports Trump’s long-held demands for higher defense spending. The current target for each NATO member remains 2 percent of GDP; Trump wants it hiked to 5 percent. Speaking to POLITICO last month, Rutte said the target should be “considerably more than 3 percent,” adding: “We have not paid enough over the last 40 years … The U.S. is rightly asking for a rebalancing.” Trump will lap that up.

New world order: But the truth is Europe is already frantically planning for a post-American future, POLITICO’s Paul McLeary, Jack Detsch and Jacopo Barigazzi write in their big walkup piece for today’s summit. EU and U.K. defense chiefs met in Paris this week without the U.S., while NATO is rethinking its defensive strategy to reduce reliance on the American military. Such a seismic shift will take time, however, and for the foreseeable future, few believe Europe could withstand a Russian attack.

Beyond NATO: The other, related focus of today’s meeting will be the war in Ukraine, and the peace deal Trump hopes to broker between the embattled nation and its Russian invaders. This week’s draft agreement between the U.S. and Kyiv has put the ball squarely in Vladimir Putin’s court, and the world is waiting anxiously to see how he responds. Trump’s trusted envoy Steve Witkoff is due to meet Putin in Moscow any day now, and we’re expecting a Trump/Putin phone call shortly after.

Where the negotiations are: The Trump administration wants Putin to sign on to the ceasefire swiftly and is threatening severe economic sanctions if he refuses, POLITICO’s Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing and Ali Bianco report. (Who knew there were “severe economic sanctions” still untapped?) In the meantime, U.S. military aid to Ukraine has restarted following the pause triggered by Trump’s Oval Office tiff with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, AP reports. And citing sources close to the Kremlin, Bloomberg predicts Putin will eventually agree to a ceasefire, but has a laundry list of demands of his own — meaning a cessation of hostilities may be some way off.

Don’t tell Marco: Secretary of State Marco Rubio will discuss the draft peace deal at the annual meeting of G7 foreign ministers in Canada today, and said he’s still hopeful of an agreement within days. “Here’s what we’d like the world to look like in a few days: Neither side is shooting at each other — not rockets, not missiles, not bullets, nothing, not artillery,” Rubio told reporters en route to Canada.

Speaking of Canada: The timing (and location) of this year’s summit is more than a little awkward for Rubio, who is likely to take heavy fire himself from G7 colleagues over America’s trade wars. The secretary of state optimistically told reporters he’s not actually expecting to talk tariffs this week — “That’s not what we’re going to discuss” — nor indeed any plans his boss might have to annex a neighboring country. “It is not a meeting about how we’re going to take over Canada," Rubio said.

Marco solo: Unfortunately for Rubio, the host nation has other ideas. His first meeting is with Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly at 8 a.m., and she’s absolutely planning to bring all that stuff up, POLITICO’s Mickey Djuric and Sue Allan report. “We have done nothing to justify Trump’s attacks on our country, on our economy and our identity,” she said in a blistering address yesterday. Joly delivers the summit’s opening speech at 9:20 a.m., and has a press conference at 12:45 p.m.

Also meeting today: Back in Washington, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and USTR Jamieson Greer will meet with Ontario Premier Doug Ford and other Canadian leaders to discuss this week’s bitter tit-for-tat row over metal levies and electricity imports.

Are you sure you want to do this? … And with glorious timing, former Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-Mich.) has his confirmation hearing to become U.S. ambassador to Canada today, POLITICO’s Mike Blanchfield reports. It must have seemed like such a sweet gig when Trump offered it last year.

Tariffs: Not such a beautiful word: The American public does not seem to be enjoying Trump’s “period of adjustment.” CNN/SSRS is the latest survey to find Trump underwater on his handling of the economy — historically his strong suit — with a 56 percent disapproval rating on that measure, worse than at any point in his first term. There’s plenty of support for his handling of immigration, however. Overall, Trump sits at 45 percent approval; 54 percent disapproval.

A message from the American Bankers Association:

The bipartisan Access to Credit for our Rural Economy (ACRE) Act of 2025 would provide critical economic support to rural communities. Learn more.

MEANWHILE ON THE HILL

SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN: We are — in theory — less than 48 hours from a federal government shutdown, with Senate Democrats still playing hardball in public on the GOP’s seven-month funding bill. Senate Minority Leader Schumer said yesterday Republicans lack the votes to overcome a filibuster and pass Speaker Mike Johnson’s CR, following a tough Democratic caucus meeting at which “shouting could be heard inside,” WSJ’s Lindsay Wise, Siobhan Hughes and Katy Stech Ferek report.

But but but: For all the public bluster, the party could be quietly moving toward an offramp that would allow Dems a symbolic vote against the funding bill before they ultimately swallow the Republican plan, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney and Lisa Kashinsky report. Senate Dems are angling for a vote on their alternative monthlong stopgap, which would ultimately be expected to fail — after which, enough senators could accept the House plan to avoid a subsequent shutdown.

MAGA LOLZ: Indeed, giddy White House officials “are increasingly confident Schumer will release enough centrists to put up the votes for passage,” POLITICO’s Rachael Bade reports in her latest “Corridors” column. “They're 100 percent gonna swallow it,” one White House official tells her gleefully. “They’re totally screwed.”

But don’t count your chickens just yet: Some Senate Republicans don’t sound enthused about offering an amendment vote on the 30-day stopgap, per Punchbowl’s Max Cohen. And the likes of Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), who’d earlier leaned toward yes, and Mark Warner (D-Va.) are signaling they’ll oppose the House CR. A procedural vote has been scheduled for Friday.

Also happening on the Hill: a 9:15 a.m. committee vote on the DOJ nominations of Dean Sauer, Harmeet Dhillon and Aaron Reitz; a 9:30 a.m. committee vote on the nominations of Jayanta Bhattacharya as NIH director and Marty Makary as FDA commissioner; and a 10 a.m. confirmation hearing for Dave Weldon as CDC director.

News from the wilderness: At Day 2 of the House Dems’ policy retreat in Virginia tonight, as members try to plot out their political future, they’ll hear from Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.

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THE MAGA REVOLUTION

DISMANTLING THE GOVERNMENT: Today marks the deadline for federal agencies to submit formal plans to the White House for massive reductions in headcount, as the most radical reshaping of government in generations speeds up. “People are completely terrified,” one Interior Department employee tells POLITICO’s Robin Bravender, with staff largely blind to the details of what each agency will propose. Some observers believe these plans will deliver far more sweeping cuts than almost anything achieved by Elon Musk and DOGE so far.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: “Rubio’s Slow-Rolling Power Play.” POLITICO’s Nahal Toosi reveals new details of Musk’s tense meetings with Rubio over his cuts to USAID and the State Department. And Rubio’s position, she reports, is way more nuanced than the “SNL” parody would suggest. “Rubio agrees, in principle, with major changes, including staff reductions and closing some diplomatic facilities,” she writes. “But he wants to restructure the department in a way that satisfies Trump and keeps Musk at bay but safeguards his main base of power.”

School ties: The cuts that wiped out almost half of the Education Department on Tuesday included hundreds of civil servants from the general counsel’s office, civil rights offices and student aid office, among others, POLITICO’s Juan Perez Jr. and Rebecca Carballo report. The loss of staff working on testing could end or damage basic information about schools’ performance and test scores — and even “raises questions about how the federal test itself will continue,” NYT’s Dana Goldstein and Sarah Mervosh report.

Sea change at the EPA: More details are emerging about what EPA administrator Lee Zeldin hailed as the “greatest day of deregulation our nation has seen” — his sweeping moves yesterday to wipe out dozens of the agency’s key climate regulations. Zelpin’s ultimate hope is to undo the core scientific finding that carbon emissions endanger people, per POLITICO’s Zack Colman and Alex Guillén.

Also on today’s chopping block: Federal wetlands protections, soot standards and $20 billion in clean energy grants at the EPA. … The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration could lose half its staff by week’s end, NYT’s Jan Hoffman reports. … Trump has pushed out National Endowment for the Humanities leader Shelly Lowe, WaPo’s Anumita Kaur reports. … And HUD has frozen $1 billion in funds to preserve affordable housing, AP’s Jesse Bedayn reports.

So is Elon stressed by it all? He is not. POLITICO’s Sophia Cai and Adam Wren published a must-read last night on the conservative voices and influencing Musk’s thinking — and included the nugget that upon Musk’s request, his right-hand man Chris Young “procured a massive TV for Musk’s office in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building so he could play video games.” What a life.

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Urge Congress to support the ACRE Act which will lower the cost of credit in rural America. Learn more.

BEST OF THE REST

U.S. VACUUM FUELS WORLD’S WORST WAR: Across East Africa, conflicts that have killed hundreds of thousands of people risk spiraling into a broader catastrophe — and experts and U.S. diplomats say America is “missing in action,” POLITICO’s Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil report in NatSec Daily. Sudan’s devastating civil war continues, while violence could worsen in South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia and Chad — the kind of regional disaster that has destabilizing effects. The State Department says it’s “nonsense” to suggest the U.S is not sufficiently engaged.

MAHMOUD KHALIL LATEST: A judge said the detained Columbia University student and green-card holder will remain in a Louisiana facility for now as his case continues, per the WSJ. A government filing showed his detention depended purely on a decision made by Secretary of State Rubio, without any other written evidence produced as yet, WaPo’s Cate Brown, Maria Sacchetti and John Hudson report. Expect further hearings later this week.

‘VIEWPOINT DISCRIMINATION’: “Judge blocks key provisions of Trump’s bid to punish Democratic-linked law firm,” by POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein: “[Beryl] Howell said the ‘retaliatory animus’ of Trump’s order [targeting Perkins Coie] is ‘clear on its face’ and appears to violate constitutional restrictions on ‘viewpoint discrimination.’” NYT’s Michael Schmidt reports that legal experts see Trump’s retribution against law firms as “undermining a central tenet of the American legal system.” Undeterred, Trump will make a “law and order” speech at the DOJ tomorrow, Axios scooped,

IMMIGRATION FILES: Migrant requests to the U.N. for help returning to their home countries from Mexico have tripled year on year, Reuters’ Lizbeth Diaz scooped. That’s one of the first concrete data points showing that Trump’s immigration crackdown is successfully leading would-be asylum-seekers to give up. But more bleak headlines are emerging of the real-world fallout, like this NBC story of a deported 10-year-old with brain cancer who lost the care she needs, or this CBS story of stranded Afghans who fought alongside the U.S.

On the home front: ICE said yesterday that all beds at U.S. detention facilities have now been completely filled up, per Reuters. … New data shows that from 2022 to 2023, immigration made up the entirety of U.S. population growth rather than births — the first time in nearly 175 years, per NBC’s Suzanne Gamboa.

ON THE ROAD: Democrats are trying to highlight voter discontent with GOP policies by hosting more town halls in Republican districts, following in the steps of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz will do so throughout the Midwest beginning tomorrow, CNN’s Isaac Dovere reports. House Democrats plan to start too, per NBC’s Scott Wong and Syedah Asghar.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: EMILYs List is backing Marlene Galán-Woods in the Democratic primary for the swing seat in Arizona’s first district — the group’s first non-incumbent endorsement of the cycle. A former broadcast journalist, Galán-Woods came in a close third in last year’s primary; Amish Shah, who won the primary and narrowly lost to GOP Rep. David Schweikert, is expected to run again.

2026 WATCH: Mike Rogers is bringing on Chris LaCivita as a senior adviser as he angles for another Michigan GOP Senate bid, Axios’ Alex Isenstadt reports.

THANKS BUT NO THANKS: “Trump admin withdraws intelligence job offer to anti-Israel commentator,” by Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod: “The administration’s now-revoked selection of Daniel Davis as a deputy director of national intelligence sparked bipartisan concern on and off Capitol Hill.”

AMARYLLIS FOX KENNEDY IN THE DRIVER’S SEAT: The daughter-in-law of HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was boxed out of the CIA deputy director role by Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), but now Fox Kennedy has landed at OMB, overseeing budgets for all 18 intelligence agencies, RealClearPolitics’ Philip Wegmann reports.

KASH RULES EVERYTHING AROUND ME: “Selling Politics: Inside the Rush to Get Rich Off of MAGA,” by POLITICO Magazine’s Alex Keeney: “Insiders now refer to … the ‘Parallel Economy,’ the marketplace for many of the conservative products that [FBI Director Kash] Patel has endorsed. It is an ecosystem of Republican-aligned businesses that are pushing ETFs, credit cards, payment processing systems, asset management solutions, private equity placements, consumer packaged goods, coffee, diapers, and really just about anything else they can think of. … Is the point to give a voice to millions of Americans who feel forgotten? Is it to make some highly connected people rich? Or both?”

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TALK OF THE TOWN

Conor McGregor is Donald Trump’s favorite Irishman, the president said.

Usha Vance’s mom is a college administrator who has advocated for DEI programs.

Elon Musk’s five-things email didn’t land well with Italian union workers at a U.S. base.

PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION: Local D.C. leaders hope that Democrats’ plan for a 30-day CR passes so they can potentially avoid the House GOP plan’s $1 billion cut to the D.C. budget, WaPo’s Meagan Flynn, Jenny Gathright and Lauren Lumpkin report. But if that doesn’t happen, the city is panicking about possible layoffs for police officers and teachers, cuts to public transportation and a downgraded bond rating. There’s a “Recess at the Capitol” protest planned for today.

OUT AND ABOUT — Engage: Promoting Women’s Economic Security hosted an “I love the Senate Committee on Aging” reception Tuesday night, with buttons and bumper stickers. Committee Chair Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and ranking member Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) discussed their new leadership and issues affecting longevity. SPOTTED: Rachel Pearson, Shannon Finley, Jane Adams, Jeanne McGlynn Delgado, Holly Page, McKinley Lewis, Claire Descamps, Jess Fassler, Jessica Mancari, Kylie Patterson, Ramsey Alwin, Anna Przebinda, David Jimenez and Lauren Craig.

— SPOTTED at the first in-person gathering of Persist, a new network of women organizers (having begun as the 2024 Women for Harris-Walz campaign coalition), in NYC last night: Diane von Furstenberg, Gloria Steinem, Rhonda Foxx, Tina Tchen, A’shanti Gholar, Ana Navarro, Sunny Hostin, Shannon Watts, Fatima Goss Graves, Angela Ferrell-Zabala, Holli Holliday, Jess Morales Rocketto, Samantha Sage, Ashley Jackson, Annie Andrews, Cassidy Huff, Suzanne Lambert, Elizabeth Booker Houston, Eliza Orlins, Sari Beth Rosenberg, Emily Amick and V Spehar.

TRANSITIONS — Aviva Aron-Dine will join the Brookings economic studies program as a senior fellow and director of the Hamilton Project. She most recently was acting assistant secretary for tax policy at the Treasury Department. … Nicole Lindler is now director of government advocacy at the National Association of Realtors. She previously was principal deputy executive secretary at the Treasury Department. …

… Matthew Campbell is now general counsel at the Consumer Product Safety Commission. He most recently worked in HHS’ Office of the General Counsel. … Katherine Schneider has rejoined Rep. Joaquin Castro’s (D-Texas) office as senior adviser/comms director. She most recently was deputy director of public affairs at the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) … Jeff Weiss … CNN’s Katelyn Polantz … Ari Rabin-Havt … POLITICO’s David Lim … Maya James … Kiki McLean … Ashley Hoy of Monument Advocacy … Erin Billings of Global Strategy Group … former Reps. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.), Joseph Cao (R-La.) and Rick Lazio (R-N.Y.) … Joe Rubin … Ryan Tracy … MSNBC’s Yelda Altalef … Brian Gaston … Lauren Inouye of the American Academy of Nursing … Chris Gaspar … Tres York of the American Gaming Association … More Perfect’s Christina Roberts … JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon … Mike Murphy of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget … Erin Harbaugh … Will Thomas … James Wesolek … Sarah Mulcahy … Tamar Barsamian

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

Corrections: Yesterday’s Playbook misstated the partisan breakdown of the votes for the stopgap funding bill. Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) supported the legislation. It also misspelled Rahm Emanuel’s last name.

A message from the American Bankers Association:

Support the ACRE Act. Farmers and ranchers play a critical role in ensuring America maintains its food independence and all Americans have affordable access to fresh, healthy food at their local grocery store. Congress can support our farmers and ranchers and lift up our rural communities by lowering the cost of credit for loans secured by rural or agricultural property. The Access to Credit for our Rural Economy (ACRE) Act of 2025 is a commonsense, bipartisan approach to help lower interest rates for rural borrowers. ACRE allows banks to offer lower interest rates on all loans secured by farm real estate and aquaculture facilities. ACRE would also reduce the cost of homeownership for people living in more than 17,000 thousand rural communities. Urge Congress to support our farmers and ranchers by passing the ACRE Act. Learn more here.