| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | Good Monday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, still buzzing from a weekend of sunshine and sakura. And thanks for all the great ballgame tips. The hot dogs were great, but I guess you’d have to call the Nationals a … work in progress? In today’s Playbook … — U.S. economy wobbles as Trump loads his tariff bazooka. — Elon Musk takes the stage in Wisconsin; cheesehead hat and all. — ICE’s bizarre deportation scorecard revealed. ANOTHER QUIET WEEK IN WASHINGTON: Last week was dominated by a single, extraordinary story — how bungling Trump administration officials accidentally leaked secret military plans to the press. This week will be very different, but no less dramatic — a blizzard of fast-moving political events coming from every side. Get ready: We’ve got special and state-level elections happening Tuesday; Donald Trump’s latest tariff bonanza unveiled Wednesday; a budget vote-a-rama expected in the Senate Thursday and the TikTok ban deadline looming Friday night. On top of that, we’re expecting another big Trump phone call with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and potentially the first Supreme Court ruling on the president’s efforts to deport migrants using an 18th-century wartime law. And that’s just the stuff we know about. Playbook will be burning the midnight oil to guide you through the week ... Do get in touch. START YOUR MORNING WITH THIS: POLITICO’s editor-in-chief John Harris and colleagues explore why — from elite law firms to Ivy League universities and storied media outlets — the great and the good of America are bending the knee to the White House. “One after another, a parade of the wealthiest and most elite institutions in American life have found themselves confronted by unprecedented demands from President Donald Trump,” John and team write. “One after another, these establishment pillars have met these demands with the same response: capitulation and compliance.” What’s going on: The aim is not just retribution but humiliation, they write. And the credit for this success — if that’s the right word — lies not just with Trump, but the team around him. “What you see here is a group of people who think they missed an opportunity the first time around — that they didn't fully realize what they now believe to be the powers of the presidency and they didn't maximize Trump's indiscriminate, narcissistic, vengeful nature,” says Ty Cobb, a former White House lawyer during the first Trump administration. “They’re playing to Trump’s strengths, which is as a mob boss.”
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
Forty-eight hours out from what Donald Trump has called “Liberation Day” there’s still no real clarity about what’s coming. | Shawn Thew/EPA | THE GUNS OF NAVARRO: All eyes are on the U.S. stock market this morning as the world economy braces for the next phase of Trump’s trade war. The president is still finalizing the massive package of tariffs coming on Wednesday, but markets will be increasingly nervous after a weekend of fevered speculation fueled, in part, by the president and his top team. Trump — who told reporters last night that “all countries” will be hit — is in the White House today and signing executive orders at 1 p.m. and 5:30 p.m., with journos invited in for the latter session. Ahead of that, the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq both open at 9:30 a.m. Where we’re at: Trump had initially promised reciprocal tariffs on every nation that charges import tariffs on American goods — “What they charge us, we charge them,” he told Fox News last month — but later appeared to dial that down, suggesting the new tariffs would, in many cases, be “very lenient.” That shift led to speculation that only America’s largest trading partners would be hit. But Trump said last night — just as he did in the White House last Thursday — that “all countries” are in the firing line. Watch the clip from on board Air Force One. Essential reading: As my POLITICO colleagues Rachael Bade, Daniel Desrochers and Victoria Guida reported so colorfully on Saturday, the truth is no one is quite sure what’s coming on April 2. But the WSJ published a great primer last night setting out the latest White House thinking, with Trump pushing aides to be “more aggressive” on tariffs over recent days. The WSJ reports the reciprocal tariffs plan could yet be eclipsed by the president’s original 2024 campaign pledge of across-the-board import tariffs of 20 percent — an idea he’d previously appeared to abandon. The six trillion dollar man: A revival of universal tariffs might be what Trump’s trade guru Peter Navarro was getting at on Fox News on Sunday when he claimed tariffs will bring in $6 trillion over the next decade. Navarro again described Trump’s tariffs as “tax cuts,” even as most mainstream economists say the opposite. WaPo’s Jeff Stein writes: “A tariff regime that generated $600 billion per year would amount to the biggest increase in federal tax revenue since World War II, according to budget expert Jessica Riedl, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a center-right think tank. ‘We’ve never seen a president propose such a drastic tax increase at a time where there is no national emergency requiring it,’” she says. And there’s (plenty) more: The automotive tariffs Trump announced last Wednesday are also due to kick in this week, and the partial carveouts for various Canadian and Mexican imports are also due to end. But given the lack of detail — and Trump’s propensity to last-minute changes of heart — everything remains in flux. And everyone from congressional Republicans (per POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill) to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (who called personally Trump last night) are still lobbying the president hard for exemptions. All of which means: 48 hours out from what Trump has called “Liberation Day” — a moment of protectionism so significant Steve Bannon wants it to be made a federal holiday — there’s still no real clarity about what’s coming. Every business leader and K Street lobbyist will tell you that the thing they hate most is uncertainty. And once again, they have it in spades. And this really matters: Of all Trump’s activities as president, it’s his high-risk moves on the economy which will cost him most dearly with U.S. voters if things go wrong. His comments to NBC News on Saturday that he “couldn’t care less” if tariffs send the price of cars rocketing are the sort of thing that will come back to haunt him if his big bet on a tariff-based economy backfires. On that note: The Dow Jones suffered its worst day in weeks on Friday. … Goldman Sachs yesterday upgraded their U.S. recession risk to 35 percent … and Japan’s Nikkei index fell 4 percent during early trading this morning. The direction of travel, for the moment, seems clear. Real world impacts: AP reports (gulp) that craft beer sellers may be forced to hike prices by up to 50 percent … CNN reports customers are rushing to buy new cars now before the tariffs kick in …while Reuters reckons it’s the cheapest cars (and so less well-off Americans) which will be hardest hit by price hikes.
| | | | A message from Instagram: App store parental approval can keep teens safe online.
Today, teens can download any app – even ones parents don't want them to. Federal legislation that puts parents in charge of app downloads could change that, helping keep teens safe.
That's why Instagram supports federal legislation requiring app store parental approval and age verification for teens under 16.
Learn more. | | | | ELECTION FEVER FIRST ELECTORAL TEST FOR TRUMP 2.0: Two-and-a-half months after his return to power, Trump will face his first real electoral tests tomorrow via closely-watched elections in Wisconsin and Florida. The battle for control of Wisconsin’s Supreme Court has attracted the hardest-fought campaigning, with conservatives going all-in with an Elon Musk-fueled ground game in rural areas. But the looming effects of tariffs on agricultural communities could yet play a role, POLITICO’s Liz Crampton, Jordan Wolman and Samuel Benson report, with many farmers hit hard by the trade upheaval. One recent poll showed tariffs and Musk are unpopular in parts of rural Wisconsin — and if Trump voters there don’t turn out, liberal Judge Susan Crawford would benefit. Elon in Dairyland: Clad in a cheesehead hat, Musk himself took the stage at a town hall in Green Bay last night, handing out $1 million checks to voters after the state Supreme Court turned down Wisconsin AG Josh Kaul’s last-minute bid to stop him, POLITICO’s Shia Kapos reports. Musk told the crowd that the stakes of the judicial race were nothing less than “the entire destiny of humanity.” Next stop for Elon: He and his DOGE team hit the CIA today (h/t Catherine Herridge) … What could possibly go wrong? Meanwhile in Florida: There are two special elections in Florida tomorrow, to replace scandal-hit Trump AG pick Matt Gaetz (who never made it into the Cabinet) and national security adviser Mike Waltz (who may not last much longer, if reports are to be believed). Where we’re at: Republican Jimmy Patronis should cruise to Congress in Gaetz’s old panhandle seat, and though the race to replace Waltz looks unexpectedly close, neither party really expects a Democratic upset there either. The DCCC hasn’t invested in the Trump +30 district — though Dem nominee Josh Weil has raised 10 times more money than Republican Randy Fine — and NYT’s Emily Cochrane notes that it’s gone blue in just one federal race since 1989. Still, the contest has made Republicans sweat — see one GOP operative trashing nominee Fine to CNN’s Steve Contorno for taking it for granted. Further down the line: New Jersey Republicans hope activist Scott Presler can help them flip the governor’s mansion in November by using the same tactics that helped the GOP in Pennsylvania last year, POLITICO’s Madison Fernandez reports. Presler’s plan is “registering Republicans in oft-overlooked places — like gun ranges, Amish communities and fly fishing conventions — in both red and Democratic-leaning counties, and encouraging them to vote early.” 2028 watch: Trump told NBC’s Kristen Welker that he’s “not joking” about exploring ways to run for a third term as president in 2028, a move which would be hard to square with the 22nd Amendment. But Trump insisted “there are methods” through which a third term could be achieved, including getting VP JD Vance to run for president and then hand over the role. So why did Trump offer up not one but two separate phone interviews to NBC News at the weekend, making big headlines with both calls? Those who know Trump well say it’s simple — he is genuinely unusually accessible, and will sometimes just take the calls of reporters who try his cell. “He randomly picks up phone calls — it’s a Trump thing,” POLITICO’s White House bureau chief Dasha Burns tells Playbook via text message. “And he often doesn’t mind if it’s the press ... He’ll just talk.” Trump did a similar phone interview with NBC’s Welker the weekend before his inauguration.
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| | | | ON THE HILL RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES: Congress’ Republicans return today from what was another difficult weekend back home for some, with their focus squarely on finalizing the massive GOP reconciliation bill. Senate Majority Leader John Thune is privately laying out a speedy timeline for his chamber to take up a budget blueprint this week, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill and Jordain Carney report. Senate Republicans hope the parliamentarian will rule — favorably — by tomorrow or Wednesday on their “current policy baseline” trick to lower the cost of their tax cut extensions. Then the budget plan could start moving by Wednesday, with vote-a-rama Thursday or Friday. A long way to go: The budget resolution is only a blueprint, of course, and leaders’ plans to set different floors for spending cuts in the House and Senate will defer some hard decisions till later. But Senate leaders “are eager to show progress” ahead of the Easter/Passover recess. Look for smoke signals from a Senate Finance GOP meeting tonight, a Senate GOP Conference meeting tomorrow and a Senate/House/administration meeting of the “Big Six” negotiators, also likely tomorrow. Also happening today: The Senate will take a procedural vote on Matthew Whitaker’s nomination as ambassador to NATO at 5:30 p.m. The House Rules Committee will take up resolutions to overturn CFPB rules at 4 p.m. COMING ATTRACTIONS: On Wednesday at 8 a.m., congressional leaders and health experts will explore the sweeping changes transforming America's health care landscape under the current administration at POLITICO’s Health Care Summit. Key speakers include Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), Reps. Diana DeGette (D-Colo.) and Ami Bera (D-Calif.), and more. Register here
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| | | | BEST OF THE REST SCORECARD MADNESS: Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials used a specially-invented scorecard system to assess whether Venezuelans living in the U.S. had sufficient ties to the Tren de Aragua gang to be deported under the 1798 Alien Enemies Act, POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein writes in via Slack. The “Alien Enemy Validation Guide,” filed in court Friday night by lawyers for the ACLU and Democracy Forward (and highlighted on X by the Immigration Council’s Aaron Recihlin-Melnick), tells immigration officers to assign points to each suspected gang member for activities ranging from having a TdA-related criminal conviction to having tattoos allegedly related to TdA. One big problem: These assessments were apparently used to decide which people got deported to a notorious prison in El Salvador. But critics say Venezuelans with tattoos unrelated to the gang — including an asylum-seeking gay man who was working as a makeup artist and happened to have crown tattoos on his arms — got swept up in Trump’s mass deportation campaign. Conservative commentators Rod Dreher and Andrew McCarthy are among those leading the outcry. Expect the anger to grow. DEADLY CONSEQUENCES: As the window closes to find survivors of the massive Myanmar earthquake, Trump’s destruction of USAID means the U.S. emergency response has yet to materialize in Southeast Asia, NYT’s Hannah Beech and Edward Wong report. Three staffers are due to arrive Wednesday. China, India and Russia have sent teams and announced millions of dollars already. Around the world: Tuberculosis patients around the world have seen their treatment disrupted, CNN’s Issy Ronald reports. “Already, more than 11,000 additional TB patients are estimated to have died in the two months since almost all USAID funding froze on January 24, according to a model built by UN-affiliated organization Stop TB Partnership.” SCOTUS WATCH: Starting today, the Supreme Court will hear three major religion cases over a month, offering the conservative justices more opportunities to keep expanding religious liberty, particularly for Christians, over other guardrails, NYT’s Adam Liptak previews. Oral arguments at 10 a.m. will examine a tax exemption for a Catholic charity in Wisconsin. The two future cases — about an Oklahoma Catholic charter school and parental religious objections to LGBTQ+-focused curricula in Montgomery County, Maryland — could be even more contentious. TAKE THIS WALTZ: National security adviser Mike Waltz remains “on shaky ground” even after Trump chose not to ax him over Signalgate, WSJ’s Alex Ward, Josh Dawsey and Meridith McGraw report. Notable: “Two U.S. officials also said that Waltz has created and hosted multiple other sensitive national-security conversations on Signal with cabinet members, including separate threads on how to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine as well as military operations.” Ruh-roh. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Trump plans to make the first trip abroad of this term to Saudi Arabia in May, Axios’ Barak Ravid and Alex Isenstadt scooped. WHILE 20,000 APPROVED REFUGEES LANGUISH: “‘Mission South Africa’: How Trump Is Offering White Afrikaners Refugee Status,” by NYT’s Zolan Kanno-Youngs and Hamed Aleaziz: “The Trump administration has thrown open the doors to white Afrikaners from South Africa, establishing a program called ‘Mission South Africa’ to help them come to the United States as refugees, according to documents obtained by The New York Times.” SQUEEZING THE PRESS: “White House to take charge of briefing-room seating chart,” by Axios’ Mike Allen: “The White House plans to impose its own seating chart for reporters in the briefing room in coming weeks, taking over a function long managed by the reporters themselves through the White House Correspondents’ Association.” IMMIGRATION FILES: “‘Can I travel?’: U.S. green-card holders cancel trips, on edge after detentions,” by WaPo’s David Nakamura, Neeti Upadhye and Reshma Kirpalani ACROSS THE POND: Special envoy (and former “The Apprentice” producer) Mark Burnett has been playing a key role in connecting the Trump and Starmer administrations, including handing over an impromptu phone call from the president to the British PM at dinner last month, POLITICO’s Sam Blewett and Stefan Boscia report from London. With his unusual, line-blurring role, Burnett doesn’t exactly adhere to typical diplomatic protocols. But the British paratrooper-turned-reality-TV impresario has come full circle in his reception at Downing Street, where his mom once worked as a waitress.
| | | | Cut through policy complexity and turn intelligence into action with POLITICO’s Policy Intelligence Assistant—a new suite of tools designed to save you time and demonstrate your impact more easily than ever—available only to Pro subscribers. Save hours, uncover critical insights instantly, and stay ahead of the next big shift. Power your strategy today—learn more. | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | Steven Cheung got the profile treatment from The Atlantic’s Elaine Godfrey. Don Jr. and Eric Trump are investing in a Bitcoin-mining company, per WSJ’s Vicky Ge Huang. Guster didn’t cancel its weekend Kennedy Center performances, but it did proclaim support for LGBTQ+ people against the Trump administration. SPOTTED: Jill Biden at Boulangerie Christophe in Georgetown. Pic PLAYBOOK LANDSCAPING SECTION — Trump announced that a southern magnolia at the White House planted almost 200 years ago will be cut down and replaced due to its bad condition. More from the AP OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the Emmett Till Legacy Foundation’s Women of Courage Awards gala at the National Press Club: Thelma Wright Edwards, Sara Sidner, Tylik McMillan, April Ellington, Cameron Wright, Barbara Broccoli, Fred Zollo, Keith Beauchamp, Deborah Watts, Teri Watts, Jaribu Hill, Reena Evers-Everette, Chris Fleming, Brenda Brody, Shelton Chappell, Tia Robbins and Tiye Rahmah. MEDIA MOVE — Julian Zelizer is now a full-time columnist at Foreign Policy and launching a Substack newsletter, The Long View, putting the news in historical perspective. He most recently has been a political analyst at CNN, and is a Princeton professor. TRANSITIONS — Rachel Huxley-Cohen is now a senior director on Invariant’s national security public affairs team. She previously was comms director for Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), and is a Tammy Duckworth and Lois Frankel alum. … Lindsay Garcia is now a principal at Kountoupes Denham Carr & Reid. She most recently was clerk of the Senate Appropriations Energy-Water Subcommittee, and is a Senate Republican Policy Committee alum. … Edward Holland is joining the Small Business Administration as director of policy, planning and intergovernmental affairs. He previously was director of government relations at Fiserv. … … Paolo Mastrangelo is now chief corporate affairs officer at Vial. He previously was co-founder of American Policy Ventures, where he’s now board chair and adviser. … Aaron Weinberg of Rep. Jerry Nadler’s (D-N.Y.) office and Gil Thompson of Rep. Brad Schneider’s (D-Ill.) office have been named executive directors of the newly formed Congressional Jewish Caucus, along with their existing roles. … Ollie Hicks is now an account executive for BerlinRosen’s NYC cities and public affairs team. He previously was press secretary/digital director for Rep. Susie Lee (D-Nev.). HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Angus King (I-Maine) … Reps. Mark DeSaulnier (D-Calif.) and Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.) (7-0) … Al Gore … MSNBC’s Ari Melber … NYT’s Astead Herndon … Meghan Hays … Axios’ Brittany Gibson … Michael Yancey … Sara Murray … John Kilvington … Monica Dixon of Monumental Sports & Entertainment … Anthony Giannetti … Advanced Biofuels Association’s Michael McAdams … Lauren Hutchinson … Eric Hoffman of Hoffman Public Affairs … Jean Guerrero … AthleteSpeaks’ Ed Lewis … Alan Zibel … Jessica Dine … former Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) … Neil Moseman … former Reps. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), Jim Marshall (D-Ga.) and Tony Cárdenas (D-Calif.) … Rusty Bermel of Bermel & Co. … Wellesley Daniels … Capita’s Joe Waters … Austin Eastridge … Jennifer Molina … Emily Knapp … POLITICO’s Amal Hijazi and Cedric Chan … Christine Senteno Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | California's tech industry is shaping national politics like never before. We’re launching California Decoded to unpack how the state is defining tech policy and politics within its borders and beyond. Sign up now to get it free for a limited time. | | | | | | | | | A message from Instagram: States are taking action to protect teens online. Congress should, too.
Today, teens can download any app – even ones parents don't want them to. Federal action putting parents in charge of teen app downloads can help keep teens safe online.
Twelve states are considering legislation requiring app store parental approval and age verification. It's time for Congress to do the same with federal legislation.
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