Happy Friday. Zack Stanton here, urging you to learn from my errors and retain the blissful ignorance that comes from not checking your 401(k) this morning. Get in touch.
In today’s Playbook …
— Markets sputter and recession fears skyrocket amid President Donald Trump’s tariff blitz.
— Vote-a-rama comes to the Senate.
— Barack Obama and Kamala Harris tee off about Trump.
YOUR MORNING LISTEN: On today’s episode of “Playbook Deep Dive,” POLITICO White House Bureau Chief Dasha Burns sits down with Calley Means, a top adviser to HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and prominent Make America Healthy Again figure. In an occasionally tense conversation, Means decried the medical establishment as beholden to lobbyists for industries “that profit from kids being sick,” defended this week’s massive HHS job cuts and blasted the department as having “utterly failed.” Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or YouTube
DRIVING THE DAY
Less than 48 hours have elapsed since Donald Trump unleashed a cascade of new tariffs on “Liberation Day.” | Michael Probst/AP
AFTER THE TARIFF BLITZ: There can be no doubt that we are all living in Donald Trump’s world. Less than 48 hours have elapsed since he unleashed a cascade of new tariffs on “Liberation Day.” The global economy has already begun to be reshaped. Markets are in a tailspin. Longtime international allies are questioning their situationships with the U.S. Everyday Americans are seeing their retirement savings take a hit. Soon, they are likely to face sticker shock on purchases large and small, with the possibility of a major political backlash waiting in the wings. Many Republican officeholders are gritting their teeth, praying for the storm to pass. A few are voicing their opposition to the tariff scheme, despite the president’s demands of obeisance. And Democrats sense a major opportunity brewing — provided they don’t mess it up.
Liberation Day, Plus 1: Yesterday, stocks lost at least $3.1 trillion in value, the largest one-day wipeout since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, per the WSJ. … The value of the dollar went down against the currency of every single G-10 nation, per the Times. … Analysts for JPMorgan now say there is a 60 percent likelihood of a recession in 2025, a 20-point jump since before Wednesday.
Liberation Day, Plus 2: Three big events to watch on the economic front today …
New jobs numbers: At 8:30 a.m., the Bureau of Labor Statistics will unveil the March jobs report, which is not expected to “pick up many Trump tariff effects or DOGE-related job cuts,” per Investor’s Business Daily, but is likely to show signs the job market is cooling, AP’s Paul Wiseman writes.
Powell speaks: At 11:25 a.m., Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell shares his economic outlook in a speech at a conference in Virginia, per Barron’s. Wall Street will watch closely for clues about how the Fed will respond both to “jobs data as well as careening markets,” Bloomberg’s Ye Xie previews. Though the Fed is expected to remain in wait-and-see mode for the time being, that’s only tenable for so long. Trump’s new tariffs have added economic uncertainty at the same time they will likely accelerate inflation, and that adds up to a potentially problematic equation: Higher inflation plus slower economic growth is “like a nightmare for the Federal Reserve because they don't have tools that fight both those things at once,” as POLITICO’s ace economics correspondent Victoria Guida explains.
And then there are the markets: At 9:30 a.m., U.S. stock markets open. And it’s unclear whether today will go much better than yesterday. After all, the baseline tariffs Trump unveiled on Wednesday take effect tomorrow, April 5. The turbulence may just be beginning. Buckle in.
THE BIG PICTURE: For the last two-plus months, the Trump administration has repeatedly demonstrated its belief that the rules-based international order that undergirded America’s role in the world since the end of World War II is defunct. It is “not just obsolete,” as Secretary of State Marco Rubiodeclared at his confirmation hearing in January. “It is now a weapon being used against us."
That’s how they see it on the economic front, too: Trump’s “tariff blitz left investors with a lot of questions,” Barron’s Reshma Kapadia writes this morning. “But one point came through crystal clear: The post–World War II global world economic order is no longer.”
The view from Team Trump: “We’ve had a world trading system for the past 70 years that may have been fit for purpose at the time, but very clearly, at least over the past decade or two, we’ve seen it failing the United States,” U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greertold Fox Business yesterday. “We’ve seen China becoming the net winner of the trading system. And when that’s the result of the trading system, you know you need to change the system.”
But there’s an important difference: To most American voters, international organizations like NATO or the U.N. are somewhat removed from their daily lives. That’s not so with trade. It has real implications every time they shop for groceries or price out a new car or truck. It’s tangible when the manufacturing plant a town over lays off workers on one of its shifts because of drops in demand, or when local farmers see international markets for their exports evaporate, or when your 401(k) takes a major hit.
All politics is local, as the late Tip O’Neill was fond of saying. But economics is especially local.
Which is why “Trump’s tariff policy … could permanently hobble his presidency and complicate GOP plans to advance a sweeping agenda,” POLITICO’s Eli Stokols and Jake Traylor report in their read about the potential end of Trump’s second-term honeymoon. “He ran to lower prices and be a good steward of the economy,” former Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa.) told the pair. “After less than three months, people are talking about a recession. … Raising the price of a car by $2,000 or $10,000 — that’s a lot of money to most people and they’re being awfully cavalier about that.”
Republicans on Capitol Hill are aware of the political threat this poses. But they seem at a loss about what to actually do about it. They’ve made clear that “they had no intention of acting anytime soon,” POLITICO’s Katherine Tully-McManus, Meredith Lee Hill and Jordain Carney report. “[I]n interview after interview Thursday, as the markets sunk deeper and deeper, senators made clear they would not be sticking their necks out on the issue.”
The Trump angle: “One senior Republican aide, granted anonymity to describe the dynamics inside the party, said GOP lawmakers were prepared to give Trump ‘several months’ at the very least. ‘Everyone is terrified,’ the aide said. ‘But I don’t think anyone wants to cross the president right now.’”
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FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller crashed a lunch for Senate chiefs of staff yesterday to defend Trump’s tariffs, POLITICO’s Dasha Burns and Meredith Lee Hill write in to Playbook. Several of those in the room described the appearance as bizarre, as Miller alluded to the British Empire and prompted befuddlement. “What on Earth was that?” one senior leadership aide said, describing the reaction afterwards. “He was very arrogant,” said a second senior aide. Miller was “lecturing folks while the market was in freefall,” said a third.
How to preserve calm: “Trump administration officials are assuring farm-state Republicans they will funnel billions of taxpayer dollars to farmers who are hit by Trump’s intensifying trade war,” POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill reports. “The discussions are an acknowledgment that Republicans inside the administration know Trump’s tariffs could hit the American agriculture sector hard enough to warrant another bailout worth billions — similar to the $28 billion the federal government doled out … in 2018. But given the immense scope of Trump’s tariffs, the package this time will likely need to be much bigger, according to GOP lawmakers.”
Dems sense an opening: Economic issues are uniquely salient politically because they’re national trends with local and personal implications. When you have a national environment favorable to your party, you want to nationalize the election; if the national environment isn’t favorable, you want to localize the campaign and make it about more provincial issues. And therein is the challenge for Republicans if these tariffs spark lasting economic pain: With 2026 likely to have national trends favoring the Democrats, how do Republicans localize the campaign if tariffs hit voters in the most personal ways possible?
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CONGRESS
HERE WE GO: Settle in for a scintillating weekend of vote-a-rama in the Senate as the chamber moves forward with up to 50 hours of debate culminating in a marathon voting session before a final vote on the budget most likely late on Saturday.
How we got here: After an hourslong delay and a last-minute rallying of the troops, Senate Republicans yesterday voted to advance to the budget resolution, 52-48, with Rand Paul (R-Ky.) joining all Democrats in opposing the measure.
Didn’t we just do this song and dance?: As POLITICO’s Jennifer Scholtes and Katherine Tully-McManus note: “We’ll see how much stamina Democrats have to pepper the GOP with amendments into the wee hours of their weekend, after going through this exact same effort just six weeks ago, when the Senate adopted an initial, skinnier budget.”
THE PATH AHEAD: Once the Senate gets everything squared away, Republicans in the House will have just one week to iron out their side of things to adopt the Senate-passed version.
HAWK WATCH: Some Senate Republicans want Trump to get in the mix to head off any objections from the deficit hawks in the House as they try to push through the full extension of Trump’s tax cuts, per POLITICO’s Benjamin Guggenheim.
THE DEM RESPONSE: Democrats are wielding new official projections showing the price tag for extending Republicans’ expiring tax cuts could reach a bigger-than-expected $4.6 trillion — albeit ones that come with a few caveats, POLITICO’s Brian Faler writes. If Republicans decide not to pay for that, it would mean an additional $871 billion in interest payments, bringing the all-in cost to $5.5 trillion. That’s up from a previous estimate of $4 trillion.
PROXY WAR: Amid a messy standoff over expanding proxy voting capabilities for the House, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) and Speaker Mike Johnson discussed a potential solution to Luna’s push. She said in an X post that Johnson called her and the two “discussed limiting the vote to just new moms who cannot physically travel in event of emergency.” The outreach from Johnson comes after Trump earlier in the day told reporters that he supported Luna’s effort — “I don’t know why it’s controversial,” Trump said — though he deferred to Johnson. More from POLITICO’s Mia McCarthy.
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AS TRUMP WORLD TURNS
FOR YOUR RADAR: A new phone call between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin could happen “potentially as soon as today,” London Playbook author Andrew McDonald reports. “One plugged-in official said they believe a new call may happen either directly before or soon after the weekend. Berlin Playbook’s Hans von der Burchard picks up similar signals from the German capital of an imminent chat between the two leaders.”
But but but: NBC reports that administration officials say no call has been scheduled, and that Trump aides are advising the president not to hold a call until Putin agrees to a ceasefire in Ukraine.
ON THE WAY OUT: Gen. Timothy Haugh, who headed up the NSA and Cyber Command, was fired yesterday, though current and former officials say it’s unclear exactly why, WaPo’s Ellen Nakashima and Warren Strobel report. Along with Haugh, his deputy at the NSA, Wendy Noble, was also let go and reassigned to a job in the Pentagon.
Where the buck stops: “I think Susie Wiles could stop this if she wanted to,” one person familiar with the situation said. This person said there are lists circulating with more names of officials that Gor and other Trump loyalists would like to see removed from the NSC. “I don’t think Trump knows or cares.”
SIGNALGATE SOARS ON: At least one more investigation will be launched into the Signalgate scandal, with the Pentagon inspector general announcing yesterday that it intends to probe Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s part in the ordeal, POLITICO’s Jack Detsch writes.
BIG LAW BENDS AGAIN: Kirkland & Ellis, the largest law firm in the U.S. by revenue, is in discussions with the White House to dodge an executive order that could cripple its access to the federal government, WSJ’s Erin Mulvaney, Josh Dawsey and C. Ryan Barber scoop.
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BEST OF THE REST
CALL OF THE WILDERNESS: Democrats may be sensing a moment to strike back against the early days of the Trump administration as his onslaught of executive orders and topsy-turvy agenda impact consumers.
Obama pops off: Former President Barack Obama tore into Trump on a number of fronts, skewering the administration for threatening law firms and lording over universities to fall in line with the administration’s wishes, calling on both to take a stand against the administration despite significant threats. “I think people tend to think, eh, democracy, rule of law, an independent judiciary, freedom of the press, that’s all abstract stuff because it’s not affecting the price of eggs. Well you know what, it’s about to affect the price of eggs,” Obama said in his appearance at Hamilton College, per CNN’s David Wright.
Harris pops up: Former VP Kamala Harris gave surprise remarks last night at a national conference of Black women in California. Although Harris made no mention of her political future, she vowed to stay politically engaged, the LA Times reports. Video from MSNBC.
TIKTOK ON THE CLOCK: With a Saturday deadline to figure out the future of TikTok in the U.S., VP JD Vance is facing an early defining moment as he attempts to shepherd the process along, POLITICO’s Irie Sentner writes. “The stakes are high politically. Support for TikTok is increasing in the U.S., especially among younger, less politically engaged voters who will be crucial for Republicans to retain the House and Senate in 2026. And the deadline, which Trump established when he issued an executive order pausing a TikTok ban for 75 days, comes at a make or break moment for the White House.”
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK:In both Washington and California, a narrative has emerged about Elon Musk’s slash-and-burn approach to downsizing the federal government: that this is what happens when you bring the Silicon Valley playbook to D.C. But inside Silicon Valley, the view is a bit different — when you can get people comfortable enough to speak candidly about it, POLITICO Magazine’s Issie Lapowsky finds. Throughout the tech world, there are people who “view Musk’s handiwork as not just dangerous, but totally antithetical to running a healthy business, let alone the government. They’re just increasingly terrified to say that out loud.”
THE IVY ASSAULT CONTINUES: The Trump administration is planning to freeze more than $500 million in grants to Brown University as it “reviews the institution’s response to anti-semitism and its potential Diversity, Equity and Inclusion policies,” The Daily Caller’s Reagan Reese reports. The move follows a similar freeze that the administration leveled on Princeton University earlier this week as it continues to leverage funds against Ivy Leagues and other higher education institutions.
Meanwhile: The White House sent Harvard a “list of demands on Thursday that would have to be met to end a government review of $9 billion the school receives in federal funding,” NYT’s Michael Bender and Stephanie Saul report. “The conditions largely follow the playbook the Trump administration used to force Columbia University to comply with its demands last month,” including imposing bans on masking.
Fighting back: In a rare demonstration of pushback among the institutions, Tufts University is throwing its support behind Rümeysa Öztürk, a detained Turkish graduate student trying to fend off deportation after having her student visa revoked, POLITICO’s Ali Bianco writes. “The move by Tufts to intervene in Öztürk’s legal proceedings comes amid a wave of arrests and visa revocations of students who the Trump administration alleges have engaged in ‘pro-Hamas’ activities in protest of the war in Gaza.”
2025 WATCH: Abigail Spanberger will officially be the lone Democrat seeking the Virginia governorship, punching her ticket to the November ballot, where she could face off against Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, per POLITICO’s Gregory Svirnovskiy. Former Virginia state Sen. Amanda Chase, who bills herself as “Trump in heels,” mounted a late bid for the GOP nomination, but it’s unclear if she has the backing to force a primary, WaPo’s Laura Vozzella writes.
THE WEEKEND AHEAD
TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week”: Stephen Hayes, David Leonhardt, Kayla Tausche and Nancy Youssef.
SUNDAY SO FAR …
CBS “Face the Nation”: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick … Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) … NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte … Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.).
NBC “Meet the Press”: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent … Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) … Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.). Panel: Leigh Ann Caldwell, Lanhee Chen, Garrett Haake and Neera Tanden.
FOX “Fox News Sunday”: AG Pam Bondi … Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.). Panel: Kevin Roberts, Marie Harf, Stef Kight and Josh Kraushaar.
ABC “This Week”: Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.).
CNN “State of the Union”: DHS Secretary Kristi Noem … Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. Panel: Reps. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) and Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.), Jamal Simmons and David Urban.
NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) … Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.). Panel: Domenico Montanaro, Margaret Talev, Michael Warren and Julia Manchester.
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TALK OF THE TOWN
Richard Grenell allegedly “berated” a House Judiciary Committee staffer, NOTUS reports, after Rep. Jamie Raskin sent a letter to the admin about its role in bringing Andrew and Tristan Tate — who were both facing human trafficking charges in Romania — back to the U.S. Grenell denies that the exchange was as heated as the staffer says.
IN MEMORIAM — “John Thornton, 59, Dies; Financier Helped Revive Local Journalism,” by NYT’s Alex Williams: “John Thornton, a financier who leveraged his wealth and influence to embark on the seemingly quixotic mission of reviving local journalism in a time of crisis, by founding The Texas Tribune, a seminal regional nonprofit news organization, and the American Journalism Project, which supports local digital newsrooms around the country, died on Saturday in Austin, Texas. He was 59. His death, by suicide, followed a long mental health struggle, a spokesman for the American Journalism Project said.”
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK, PART I — Axiom Strategies, the major Republican consulting firm owned by Jeff Roe, is planning to make significant layoffs imminently, two people familiar with the matter told POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman. One current Axiom employee tells Playbook that at least 30 jobs are likely to be cut.
Since Trump’s victory in the 2024 primaries, Roe has faced blowback for his role as a key architect of the super PAC that backed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in that campaign. Key Trump world figures have pressured down-ballot Republican candidates not to hire Roe or Axiom — a consulting goliath which, as of early 2024, had nearly 400 employees across almost 20 individual firms.
Former Trump co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita, who has had a long-running feud with Roe, tweeted on Thursday: “Today is Liberation Day for many of @jeffroe’s employees who word on the street is will be unceremoniously sacked. Fear not ! when one door closes, another one opens — feel free to reach out for expanding opportunity!”
Neither Roe nor a spokesperson for Axiom responded to requests for comment.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK, PART II — GrayHouse, the polling and data analytics firm founded by Arizona-based political strategist Landon Wall, is relocating its headquarters from Phoenix to Washington, D.C., POLITICO’s Dasha Burns writes in. Wall has become the go-to pollster for the Senate Republican Conference. “Bringing his experience to the national stage will be a huge asset for conservative campaigns across the country,” says Jason Thielman, former executive director of the NRSC.
The move follows a seven-figure investment from moneyed conservatives. Wall has worked with the NRSC and congressional campaigns over the last two cycles, and does work for a nonprofit supporting Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.). He has also worked with Eli Lilly Company and Coalition for App Fairness, a group funded by Spotify.
OUT AND ABOUT — EU Ambassador Jovita Neliupšienė held a party last night at her residence for Raj M. Shah and Christopher Kirchhoff’s new book, “Unit X: How the Pentagon and Silicon Valley are Transforming the Future of War,” ($30). SPOTTED: Czech Ambassador Miloslav Stasek, Luxembourg Ambassador Nicole Bintner-Bakshian, Slovenia Ambassador Iztok Milosic, Pedro Carneiro, Henning Faltin, George Forstiropoulos, David Sanger, Col. Paul Pawluk, Michael Bayer, Dan Tadross, Joel Meyer, Ricki Seidman, Kinney Zalesne, Vivek Viswanathan,Justina Budgainte-Froehly, Jacob Choe, R. David Edelman and Mark Schulte.
— Moms Clean Air Force hosted its second annual conference yesterday on the danger of plastics on the environment and human health, where leaders on environmental advocacy spoke along with a keynote speech by Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.), who announced the formation of the House Environmental Justice Caucus. SPOTTED: Dominique Browning, Sam Schmitz, Alice Park, Shanna Swan, Adam Met, Leo Trasande, Jo Banner, Tracy Woodruff, Shannon Jones, Osasenaga Idahor, Rachel Meyer, Isaias Hernandez, Robin Morris Collin, Shamieka Preston, Cynthia Palmer, Lynn Anderson, Almeta Cooper and Julia Cohen.
TRANSITIONS — John McCarthy has launched Causeway Strategy Group, a consulting firm. He previously was senior advisor for political engagement in the Biden White House and is a Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, DNC, Brendan Boyle and Frank Pallone Jr. alum. … Beth Kanter is joining SKDK as an EVP. She previously was chief advocacy and strategic comms officer at Omidyar Network.
WEDDING — Ian O’Keefe, comms director at the Progressive Policy Institute and a Derek Kilmer and Rick Larsen alum, and Margaret Julianne Dancy, a nurse practitioner at Children’s National Hospital, got married last weekend at Farmington Country Club in Charlottesville, Virginia. Jules Daly, the bride’s aunt and former RSA Films president, officiated the ceremony. Pic … Another pic … SPOTTED: Heather Painter, Colin Mortimer, Stu Malec, Lindsay Mark Lewis, Joe Tutino, Washington state Rep. Osman Salahuddin, Toby Salisbury, Jolie LiBert and Robert Karlén.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Allan Lichtman … Treasury’s Warren Ryan … Michael Halle … NYT’s Jo Becker … Michael Leach … Business Roundtable’s Molly Edwards Connor … Forbes Tate Partners’ Dan Jacobs … Charles Halloran of Spectrum Partners … Bloomberg Tax’s Heather Rothman … Jeffrey Ekoma … Michael Merola of Winning Strategies Washington … GE’s Meg Thurlow … Molly Mitchell of Mitchell Media … NBC’s Joy Wang … Chris Crawford of Rep. Buddy Carter’s (R-Ga.) office … Targeted Victory’s Nick Snow and Bridget Spurlock … POLITICO’s Katie Brennan and Tilovon Crite … former Rep. Darlene Hooley (D-Ore.) … Jake Olson … former NSA Director Bobby Ray Inman (94) … Jennifer Humphrey … former Sen. Mo Cowan (D-Mass.) … Delaware AG Kathy Jennings … ABC’s Julia Cherner … Dave Vasquez of DCI Group … Trent Benishek of the Senate Appropriations Committee … Bruce Wolpe … Ali Rubin
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States are taking action to protect teens online. Congress should, too.
Today, teens can download any app – even ones parents don't want them to. Federal action putting parents in charge of teen app downloads can help keep teens safe online.
Twelve states are considering legislation requiring app store parental approval and age verification. It's time for Congress to do the same with federal legislation.
