| | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | Presented by ACLI, Finseca, IRI, NAFA and NAIFA | WHAT BILL ACKMAN IS CELEBRATING — “Harvard President Claudine Gay Resigns, Shortest Tenure in University History,” by The Harvard Crimson’s Emma Haidar and Cam Kettles
|  Plenty of Democrats want President Joe Biden to offer a much clearer forward-looking reason to vote for him rather than simply against Donald Trump. | Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images | BIDEN HIS TIME — Struggling in the polls and with crucial blocs in the Democratic coalition, President JOE BIDEN enters the election year facing a big question: how long to focus on selling himself to a skeptical public vs. pivoting to criticizing DONALD TRUMP head on. That’s the choice facing the Biden campaign that CNN’s Isaac Dovere outlines with a memorable turn of phrase: Younger reelect staffers have been joking about when to go “full HITLER” — that is, comparing Trump directly to the Nazi leader. For now, the campaign is striking a balance between offense and defense, with plans for a gradual increase in intense anti-Trump messaging, buoyed by the GOP frontrunner’s incentive to veer rightward during the primary. Plenty of Democrats want Biden to offer a much clearer forward-looking reason to vote for him rather than simply against Trump — and that’s where the State of the Union will come in. Dovere reports that Biden will outline priorities like “protecting Obamacare, expanding efforts to relieve student debt and housing costs, and tax measures such as a 25% minimum tax for billionaires and quadrupling the stock buyback tax,” laying the groundwork for a campaign-trail message and second-term agenda. Will that be enough? The warnings for Biden are piling up. Hispanic leaders say voters are tired of Biden, unimpressed by his record and defecting from his coalition, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott reports, with observations on the ground backing up red flags in the polling. Inflation, housing, immigration and crime remain big concerns, though there’s plenty of distaste for Trump among Latino voters, too. And in a handful of swing-state counties that have backed the last four presidential victors, WSJ’s Ken Thomas, Catherine Lucey, Eliza Collins and Paul Overberg find a familiar refrain: Voters aren’t enthused about either frontrunner. In these areas, often removed from big cities and home to aging populations, there’s “a broader frustration with America’s trajectory and a desire to break the logjams that impede progress on the country’s economic and social problems.” Behind closed doors, an uncorked Biden often gets more candid, or assertive, at campaign fundraisers. That can create headaches for aides who have to clean up his gaffes or inconvenient truths, but several donors tell Reuters’ Steve Holland, Nandita Bose and Trevor Hunnicutt that his campaign “could actually use more of this type of aggressive language, especially pushing back on Republican attacks.” Meanwhile, Trump is laying big plans: He tells Breitbart’s Matthew Boyle and Alexander Marlow that he’ll make a “heavy play” for Minnesota, New Jersey, New York (!), New Mexico and Virginia in the general election. And he floats the possibility of a rally at Madison Square Garden. Overall, despite the familiarity of the likely matchup, this election promises to be an unpredictable one — with existential debates over democracy and judicial involvement potentially like never before, AP’s Steve Peoples writes. JIM MESSINA tells him it’s not inconceivable that Trump could win in November from behind bars. COUNTERPROGRAMMING — With NIKKI HALEY and Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS slated for a CNN debate in Iowa on Jan. 10, the other GOP presidential candidates are making other plans: Trump, who is the third qualifier for the debate but is snubbing it, will instead have a town hall with Fox News’ Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum in Des Moines that night. And VIVEK RAMASWAMY, who’s enraged over not making the polling cut for the debate, will have a town hall with podcaster Tim Pool in Des Moines. (Haley and DeSantis will also have their own separate town halls on CNN.) Good Tuesday afternoon. Welcome back, and thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.
| | | | A message from ACLI, Finseca, IRI, NAFA and NAIFA: America is facing a demographic tipping point.
This year, more Americans will turn age 65 than ever before. Millions are turning to protected lifetime income to secure greater financial certainty throughout retirement.
A new regulation proposed by the Department of Labor is out of step with this reality. It would limit access for people who need it most. Stand with us. Protect retirement for all. | | | |  | 8 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | |  Details of the identity of the man who allegedly shot up the Colorado Supreme Court have not yet been released. | Colleen Slevin/AP Photo | 1. HEADS UP: A man allegedly broke into the Colorado Supreme Court building overnight and shot up the place, wreaking “significant and extensive” damage though not harming anybody, police said, per The Denver Post’s Jacob Factor. The incident, of course, comes after the court’s controversial decision to boot Trump off the ballot for inciting the Jan. 6 insurrection, a ruling that prompted threats to the justices. But, but, but: State police said “it is believed that this is not associated with previous threats to the Colorado Supreme Court Justices.” Details on the man’s identity or motive have not yet been released. 2. IT’S STILL TRUMP’S PARTY, PART I: House Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE today became the latest Republican heavyweight to endorse Trump’s presidential bid, Fox News’ Houston Keene scooped. 3. IT’S STILL TRUMP’S PARTY, PART II: “Republican loyalty to Trump, rioters climbs in 3 years after Jan. 6 attack,” by WaPo’s Rachel Weiner, Scott Clement and Emily Guskin: “Republicans are now less likely to believe Jan. 6 participants were ‘mostly violent,’ less likely to believe Trump bears responsibility for the attack and … slightly less likely to view Joe Biden’s election as legitimate than they were in a December 2021 Post-UMD survey. In follow-up interviews, some said their views have changed because they now believe the riot was instigated by law enforcement to suppress political dissent — a baseless conspiracy theory that has been promoted heavily in right-wing media and by Trump.” 4. IT’S STILL TRUMP’S PARTY, PART III: There was a brief glimmer of political vulnerability for Trump right after Republican disappointments in the 2022 midterms. But more than a year later, he has barnstormed back to the forefront of the GOP and is poised to win the presidential nomination. WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf, Josh Dawsey and Marianne LeVine trace how the comeback happened: His base doubled down after he was criminally indicted, his opponents fractured and his political operation got much more professional. Focus group tests indicate that nothing can move his ardent supporters. Notable nugget: Even the Club for Growth has now reached out to the Trump team “looking for a détente.”
| | | | A message from ACLI, Finseca, IRI, NAFA and NAIFA:   Middle-income families need access and options for guaranteed lifetime income from annuities. Learn how a DOL proposal would take that certainty away. | | | 5. KICKING OFF TODAY: “LaPierre, Longtime N.R.A. Leader, Faces Trial That Could End His Reign,” by NYT’s Danny Hakim: WAYNE “LaPIERRE, 74, faces his gravest challenge, as a legal showdown with New York’s attorney general, LETITIA JAMES, goes to trial in a Manhattan courtroom. Ms. James, in a lawsuit filed amid an abrupt effort by the N.R.A. to clean up its practices, seeks to oust him from the group after reports of corruption and mismanagement. … [L]ongtime insiders say the organization may be reaching a point where a legitimate bankruptcy filing is necessary.” 6. AD IT UP: The Iowa GOP caucus has already seen $105 million in spending on ads this cycle, with at least $7.5 million more on the way, NBC’s Bridget Bowman reports. January TV and radio ad reservations are dominated by Haley’s campaign and affiliated SFA Fund super PAC, while earlier phases of the race saw Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) led the pack in spending. The DeSantis-affiliated Never Back Down super PAC has also spent quite a chunk of change. 7. STATE OF THE UNIONS: “Unions poised to capitalize on U.S. labor board rulings that bolstered organizing,” by Reuters’ Daniel Wiessner: “Biden’s appointees to the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) paved the way in 2023 for workplaces to unionize outside of the decades-old secret ballot election process, made it easier for unions to organize franchise and contract workers, and expanded the type of worker conduct protected by U.S. labor law, among other significant moves. Business groups and employers are challenging many of those decisions in court, but in the mean time companies should brace themselves for an uptick in organizing emboldened by the NLRB’s burst in pro-union activity.” 8. BEYOND THE BELTWAY: As state legislatures return to work this month, NYT’s Rick Rojas rounds up some of the big trends to watch for: Several states will take up restrictions on artificial intelligence, potentially setting the pace for a lagging federal government. Republican-led legislatures will keep targeting LGBTQ+ rights — especially transgender rights — while Democrats will push for abortion rights protections and gun control measures (the latter of which could surface even in some red states). Washington state is weighing an ambitious “baby bonds” bill. And Louisiana, where Republicans just secured a trifecta, has to redraw its congressional map, potentially opening up a Democratic flip.
| | PLAYBOOKERS | | Kyrsten Sinema, Chris Murphy and James Lankford are resuming in-person immigration policy negotiations today. Tom Boucher jumped ship from Chris Christie to Nikki Haley. Laphonza Butler raked it in at EMILY’s List. Tony Gonzales is welcoming several dozen House Republicans for a border visit. Christian Ziegler’s criminal investigation is expanding. Dave McCormick is in Israel, and Kirsten Gillibrand is heading there too with a Senate CODEL. MEDIA MOVES — Richard Beckman announced that he’ll leave The Messenger, where he’s been president, at the end of the month, citing health issues, retirement from the corporate world and a move to England. … Greg Sargent is joining The New Republic as a staff writer and host of a new daily podcast. He previously was a longtime columnist at WaPo. TRANSITION — Brianna Manzelli is joining the Cargo Airline Association as managing director for legislative policy. She previously was senior adviser and comms director for Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah). BIRTHWEEK (was Saturday): Katie Plona BONUS BIRTHDAY: Kel McClanahan of National Security Counselors Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our politics and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
