| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha discuss President Donald Trump’s immigration agenda — and why his latest threats to NATO are different from those we’ve heard before.
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| Good Wednesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard. It’s April Fool’s Day! Get in touch. MOONSHOT: Cancel whatever you had planned this evening — America is headed back to the moon. NASA’s launch window for the Artemis II mission opens at 6:24 p.m. Eastern, and the weather in Florida looks fair. People around the world will be tuning in to watch — including your author’s insanely excited young children. Fifty-four years later: Artemis II is NASA’s first manned mission to the moon since 1972. It’s a flyby, not a landing — the four astronauts on board will slingshot around the moon before heading home, travelling further from earth than any human before. It’s the next step toward what NASA hopes will be a fully crewed moon landing in 2028. Yes — Trump wants to squeeze an extraterrestrial achievement into his presidency before he finally steps down. And with $100 billion of taxpayers’ money propping up the Artemis project, of course there are politics in play. Which makes this a huge moment for new NASA chief Jared Isaacman, three months into his tenure. “Pressure is coming all the way from the top,” POLITICO’s space correspondent Audrey Decker reports this morning. “The day Isaacman was sworn into the job, the White House released a directive outlining Trump’s ambitions in space, including a moon landing by 2028 and the creation of a permanent lunar outpost.” No pressure! FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Isaacman is Dasha’s guest on “The Conversation” this week, where he tells her that Artemis is “picking up where Apollo left off.” And there’s no doubt the echoes of the 1960s space race are real. With China targeting its own moon landing in 2030, Artemis needs to succeed. “There isn’t a person alive right now that didn’t grow up in America where the United States was the overarching leader,” Isaacman tells Dasha. “There’s a real chance that that could shift in the years ahead.” The full episode drops on Friday. Subscribe on Apple or Spotify In today’s Playbook … — The politics of birthright citizenship: Why POTUS is headed to SCOTUS today. — What Tucker Carlson told the D.C. elite about Trump’s war. — And how Dems hope the White House ballroom can become a vote winner.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | DON’S DAY IN COURT: In a presidency filled with firsts, here’s another: Trump said he plans to head to the Supreme Court in person today to hear arguments in one of the blockbuster cases of his presidency — the White House’s attempt to end birthright citizenship in America. A sitting president has never attended oral arguments before the high court. The justices will hear oral arguments starting at 10 a.m. over the constitutionality of Trump’s Day One executive order declaring American-born babies will no longer qualify for citizenship if their parents were here temporarily or illegally. We won’t get a final ruling until later this year, but the justices’ comments and questions today should give us a fair idea where it’s headed. Let’s be clear: Almost nobody expects Trump to win. The president’s EO — blocked by court injunctions long before it came into effect — seeks not just to reinterpret the 14th Amendment after 150 years, but also to overturn decades of legal precedent. Prediction: “I think the most likely outcome is that the court says Congress has implicitly treated virtually all U.S.-born people to be U.S. citizens for more than a century, and that it’s not going to allow an executive order to disturb that principle,” POLITICO’s legal ace Josh Gerstein tells Playbook. “If Congress wants to say something to the contrary, it can pass a law — and then the court would take that up.” That’s not going to happen any time soon. And Trump’s angry Truth Social post on Monday — in which he raged at the “stupid” U.S. courts — suggests he knows he’s onto a loser. So why show up at all? The big thing for Trump is to be seen putting up a fight. This policy — always a Hail Mary from a legal perspective — is as much about signalling to the president’s base as it is a serious attempt to change the law. Simon Hankinson of the Heritage Foundation tells Playbook’s Ali Bianco that many Trump loyalists see birthright citizenship as a “moral” question. “They don't like the idea that somebody could, simply by being born here, acquire all of the same rights and advantages as someone who has been here for generations, and whose family have paid taxes and fought and died in wars.” Trump’s ultra-conservative base is certainly pushing for more from Trump after he toned down immigration enforcement in the wake of the deadly chaos in Minnesota. “People are fired up [about birthright citizenship],” one GOP operative close to the White House tells Dasha. “Certainly the base will be pumped.” But another White House ally tells her the messaging on immigration now feels “inconsistent.” And the broader problem for Trump is that, just as we saw in Minnesota, playing to the base on immigration can have big, adverse effects with the wider public — especially the swing Latino voters who started deserting the president this year. “There’s about a quarter of Latinos who will be with him, no matter what,” said GOP strategist Mike Madrid, who literally wrote the book on Latino voters. “They don't want any immigration.” But for the larger group that Madrid calls “de-aligners” — Latinos who have lurched away from Trump since 2024 — the birthright citizenship case is another reason not to come back. “It's not like this is the last straw,” he told Ali. “This is just another straw, on a camel who already has a broken back and is laying on the ground.” Deja vu: Madrid draws parallels with the relentless 2018 Republican messaging about a “caravan” of migrants headed to the U.S. from Central America. “[It’s] exactly the conundrum Republicans found themselves in in 2018. That's why they were running the caravan story on Fox News every day,” he says. “They were losing Latinos by big numbers, but they continued to run that because they thought that they could get higher white, rural, non-college turnout because of it. They did not. So history would say no, there's no political advantage to this.” Maybe not, but conservative immigration campaigners are taking a longer view of today’s SCOTUS case. “The only way something as basic as this is going to change is if the public debate gets rolling,” the Center for Immigration Studies’ Mark Krikorian tells Ali. “This is why it was important for the president to do this — not because he's going to succeed in the end goal, but because it’s necessary to get the ball rolling. … Eight years, 10 years from now, maybe we can get a change.” Krikorian’s concern is different — that the focus on birthright citizenship sucks oxygen away from more effective policies. “My concern is that it's a shiny object in the sense that it distracts from the things that have to be done more immediately — for instance, worksite enforcement.” FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Right on cue, POLITICO’s Sam Benson scoops this morning that a coalition of conservative Trump allies is pushing for worksite enforcement — immigration raids on farms, building sites and hospitality venues — to become a central tenet of ICE policy. “There is no chance for a mass deportation program if worksite enforcement is not the centerpiece,” says a report from the Mass Deportation Coalition, an organization led by prominent Trump world veterans and immigration restrictionist groups. Divisions on the right: As Sam notes, this kind of ultra-hardline approach has already caused problems for Trump with business groups — which is why he’s backed off in the past. Such a strategy “almost certainly promises to alienate some of the Trump administration’s allies in the agriculture, construction and hospitality industries, which all rely heavily on undocumented labor,” Sam writes. “Farm groups in particular hold significant sway in Trump’s Washington.” In short: The conflict between Trump’s immigration priorities shows no sign of abating yet.
| | A message from Anthropic: AI helps most with the hardest work, not the simplest. Anthropic analyzed 2 million conversations and found Claude's biggest impact is on complex, college-level tasks. The Economic Index tracks adoption across every state and occupation. See the data | | | | WAR AND PEACE END IN SIGHT? Trump will address the nation at 9 p.m. tonight with “an important update,” one month into the war on Iran, press secretary Karoline Leavitt announced. The president told reporters last night he expects to withdraw from the conflict in “two or three weeks” — insisting that “all I have to do is leave” for oil prices to “come tumbling down.” Bear in mind: “Two weeks” is Trump’s favorite timeline to float when confronting questions about difficult geopolitical conflicts. Last year, an NBC News analysis found he’d deployed the phrase more than a dozen times over the course of just two months, on issues ranging from a trade deal with China to negotiating peace with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The deadline hasn’t always proved entirely accurate. But the president does have a major political incentive to end the war in Iran ASAP. Administration officials are privately discussing the possibility that oil prices climb to a record $150 or more per barrel, POLITICO’s Scott Waldman, Eli Stokols and Dasha scooped. The White House is considering extraordinary measures, including the deployment of emergency powers. Strait talk: The problem for Republicans — and anyone else — worried about oil prices is that Trump is now talking openly about walking away without forcibly reopening the Strait of Hormuz. “What happens to the Strait, we're not going to have anything to do with,” he told reporters last night. Panicking European politicians fear they now face an economic crisis on the scale of Covid, my POLITICO Europe colleagues report. And that’s before you get on to the crisis within NATO. Back home in the U.S.: With gas prices now officially $4 a gallon, Dems are looking to make hay. Democrats rolled out a $250,000 ad campaign targeting Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) over his support of the war, POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky scoops. VoteVets, the PAC behind the ad, plans to expand that campaign into other battlegrounds, targeting GOP veterans. SCOOP: It’s not just Dems pushing an anti-war message. Tucker Carlson, the close ally (and sometimes critic) of Trump, took his anti-war message to an elite Washington audience on Friday: the Metropolitan Club, whose selective ranks include top lobbyists, ambassadors and business leaders, POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman writes in. Carlson, a longtime member of the elite club, spoke to a packed, closed-door audience of around 200 people just steps from the White House, according to one attendee. His message to members was similar to what he says publicly: “He just doesn't believe it’s in the best interest of the United States,” said the attendee. “He’s a hard ‘no’ against these American incursions around the world.” The membership of the Met Club, which was formed in 1863 and places a heavy emphasis on discreetness, is made up of the very kind of people who help dictate the Washington consensus on the conflict. N.B.: It wasn’t all heavy geopolitics talk. A second attendee said Carlson also reminisced about the Met Club and its history during his Q&A. Carlson himself declined to comment. “I’ve been a member there for 31 years and have never publicly discussed anything I’ve said while in the club,” he said in a text message.
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| | | | TRAIL MIX TALK ABOUT A DIVIDED PARTY: The Republican primary for secretary of state in Arkansas that Playbook previewed yesterday illustrated once again just how deep the divisions on the right now go. Veteran state senator and baptist pastor Kim Hammer beat his Mike Lindell-backed rival Bryan Norris by less than 1,000 votes. PURITY TEST: Third Way, the center-left think tank pushing back hard against Hasan Piker’s influence among Democrats, is calling on Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed to answer six questions about Piker’s views, Playbook’s Adam Wren scoops. Among the questions: Do you agree with Piker that “America deserved 9/11?” Do you share his belief that ultra-Orthodox Jews are “inbred?” And “If you do not endorse all of Piker’s views, which, specifically, do you reject?” El-Sayed is set to rally with Piker next week. Read the letter ON THE ROAD AGAIN: Rahm Emanuel’s big travel week from New Hampshire to South Carolina heads to Spartanburg today, where he’ll sit with NBC “Today” co-anchor Craig Melvin, a Wofford College alum, at 5 p.m. on campus, Adam writes in. In addition to Wofford, Rahm is planning to hit Spartanburg Community College, USC Upstate, and Claflin University. DEMOCRACY WATCH: Trump signed a controversial order last night clamping down on mail-in voting — a move sure to face instant legal pushback, POLITICO’s Aaron Pellish and colleagues report. It directs DHS and SSA to create an approved list of absentee voters, and bars the Postal Service from sending mail-in ballots to any others. THE BATTLE OVER POLYMARKET: “How prediction markets landed in Congress’ crosshairs,” by POLITICO’s Jasper Goodman and colleagues: “At the center of the fight is a debate over who should regulate and tax transactions that take place on sites like Kalshi and Polymarket, which operate as financial exchanges but have become best known as sports and political betting platforms. The clash pits states and tribes against an increasingly powerful new industry that has won over key presidential appointees.”
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Anthropic's Economic Index found AI helps most with the hardest work, not the simplest. See the data | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | STRICTLY BALLROOM — The National Capital Planning Commission still appears set to vote tomorrow on Trump’s plan for a massive new ballroom where the East Wing once stood — even after a federal judge ruled the administration must pause construction absent “express authorization from Congress.” The politics: Democrats want to cast the ballroom project as an example of billionaire-class cronyism at a time when focus should be on affordability, Playbook’s Irie Sentner reports. “The message you’ll continue to see us hammer home is really about misplaced priorities — that Trump and Republicans in Washington are more focused on starting new wars and renovating ballrooms than they are on lowering costs for American families,” House Majority PAC spokesperson Katarina Flicker told Irie. DCCC spokesperson Liam Buckley added: “Every minute Donald Trump and House Republicans focus on building a ballroom is another minute they are telling the American people they don’t care about lowering costs.” The pushback: But the White House and its allies aren’t worried — exactly because they believe voters care more about affordability, Trump pollster Jim McLaughlin told Irie. “People will bitch about it,” he said. “They’ll say he’s a king and he wants his ballroom and all that other kind of stuff. But with normal people, they’re not going to care. The never-Trumpers, the anti-Trumpers, it’ll be a big issue to them. But what’s gonna matter to normal people is the cost of living.” TMZ IN DC — Celebrity gossip site TMZ continues to push its new status as a Capitol Hill player with more scoops about lawmakers skipping town during the DHS shutdown. The site’s latest report said Reps. John McGuire (R-Va.), Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) and David Rouzer (R-N.C.) jetted off to Scotland and were spotted exploring Edinburgh Castle. Welcome to 2026: TMZ now has “a producer and a photog circulating in the Capitol, showing the intersection between politics and pop culture,” executive producer Harvey Levin told Irie in a statement. “[W]e wanted to use our platforms to show how Congress -- Dems AND Republicans -- have betrayed us,” Levin said, adding: “Short story - - our DC presence will sometimes be fun, sometimes intensely serious.” OH NOEM — Former DHS Secretary Kristi Noem is “devastated” and requesting “privacy and prayers” in the wake of a Daily Mail report that alleges her husband photographed himself cross-dressing, a representative for Noem told the N.Y. Post’s Chris Nesi. Noem built her political career in part by tamping down on LGBTQ+ rights, including calling for South Dakota to ban drag shows on college campuses. Dispatch from Castlewood: “In South Dakota, Neighbors Feel Sorry for Kristi Noem’s Husband,” by NYT’s Shawn McCreesh: “In the tiny town of Castlewood, S.D., where everyone knows the Noems, the prevailing sense was that people can’t help but feel bad for Bryon Noem after a tabloid photo leak.” ‘CHICAGO’ IN D.C. — Trump and first lady Melania Trump were welcomed last night with a smattering of both boos and cheers during “Chicago’s” opening night, one of the last premieres at the Kennedy Center before it shutters for a multiyear renovation, POLITICO’s Simon Levien (who had a ticket for opening night!) writes in. “Richard Grenell, the recently departed Kennedy Center director, seemed in good spirits as he regaled a few guests with a tour,” Simon observed. “The seats were full, but could have been fuller.” MOVING OUT — “U.S. Forest Service will move headquarters from D.C. to Utah,” by WaPo’s Jake Spring and Mariana Alfaro: “The move threatens to hollow out the current staff of the service’s D.C. headquarters, who may decide not to move to Utah. … Agency leadership told employees that roughly 260 positions would be moved.” OUT AND ABOUT — Susanna Quinn hosted a women’s fundraiser for former Virginia first lady Dorothy McAuliffe, who is running for Congress as a Democrat in what will be Virginia’s 7th Congressional District if the state votes to redistrict. SPOTTED: Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), Caroline Adler, Mary Alberg, Grace Bender, Tracy Bernstein, Nora Connors, Francesca Craig, Kelly Craighead, Kim Cubine, Stephanie Cutter, Debra Deshong, Julie Eddy Rokala, Kate Beale, Cindy Jones, Nicole Elkon, Adrienne Elrod, Samia Farouki, Carrie Goux, Laura Hartigan, Gwen Holliday, Reta Lewis, Cheryl Masri, Kiki McLean, Melissa Moss, Capricia Penavic Marshall, Anne Perron, Janet Pitt, Aviva Rosenthal, Evan Ryan, Lee Satterfield, Jessica Straus, Mary Streett, Lona Valmoro and Ellie Warner. TRANSITIONS — Riley Pingree is now deputy comms director for the House Financial Services Committee. She previously worked for Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Pa.). … Ashley (Wilson) Hildebrand is now VP of comms at Issue One. She most recently worked at Catholics for Choice. … Leo Wise is joining the American Economic Liberties Project to lead its new anti-corruption program. He most recently was a lead prosecutor in the Hunter Biden case. WEEKEND WEDDING — Zach Shaben, federal affairs manager at Keurig Dr Pepper, and Natalie Holmes, a recruiter for architects and interior designers, got married on Sunday at District Winery. They met through mutual friends in 2022. SPOTTED: James Conway, Amol Shalia, Gianluca Nigro, Sean Falvey, Grace Carmichael, Parnian Shiraz, Jacquelyn Puente, Brad Engle and Quin Carroll. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Justice Samuel Alito … Rachel Maddow … NYT’s Michael Crowley … Julia Hahn of Emerald Strategies … former acting HUD Secretary Adrianne Todman … 2 Public Affairs’ Allison Harris … Jess Smith … Antonio White … Wess Mitchell … Erin Butler … POLITICO’s Stephen Riddle, Daniel Desrochers and Zi-Ann Lum … John Palatiello of Miller/Wenhold Capitol Strategies … Ali Breland … Rodrigo Heng-Lehtinen of The Trevor Project … Mary Popadiuk … Bully Pulpit Interactive’s Nicholas Rozzo … Campbell O’Connor … Matt Haller of the International Franchise Association … Frances Patano … Nancy Vu … Andrew Downing of Sen. Tim Sheehy’s (R-Mont.) office … Nancy Lee … Matt Purple … former Reps. Peter Deutsch (D-Fla.) and Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) … Renaissance Philanthropy’s Erin Szulman … Elizabeth Villarreal … Sharon Soderstrom … Riley Kilburg of Center Forward … Jon Hanen of the Churchill Group … HBS’ Rob Marchant Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
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