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By Will Steakin, Adam Wren and Dasha Burns |
Presented by |
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With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco and Irie Sentner Good Monday morning, we’re feeling as strong as a Bull Moose, and hope you are too. Get in touch. In today’s Playbook … — What’s next for Tucker Carlson’s post-MAGA movement. — Party battles to defend the House and seize the Senate face critical deadlines today. — The Boldfaces: Marjorie Taylor Greene, JD Vance, Laura Loomer, Ralph Nader, Chuck Edwards, Max Miller, Alani Bankhead, Seth Bodnar, Todd Blanche, Darline Graham, Abdul El-Sayed and more.
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DRIVING THE DAY |
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MAGA TAKES CROSSFIRE: The will-they-won’t-they energy around Tucker Carlson and other high-profile Trump defectors is coalescing from viral photos and manifestos into donor discussions and planning — even as Trump world dismisses the whole thing as a MAGA-exiles revenge tour. “The support is overwhelming,” Marjorie Taylor Greene told Playbook, saying her phone hasn’t stopped ringing with calls from across the political spectrum about organizing since their viral photo, and that she’s “really surprised” by the number of “large donors” wanting to “donate in big ways to help it.” “Our argument is the two-party system is a complete and total failure,” Greene said, adding the group is discussing next steps. “I am 100% totally completely disgusted with both parties.” But a Tucker Carlson presidential campaign isn’t one of them. “Tucker, he’s not running for president,” Greene said while ruling out a run of her own. “He said that publicly. He said that privately.” But Carlson shouldn’t be completely counted out yet. While he’s said privately he has no interest in running, two people close to Carlson say his calculation could change under certain circumstances. “He won’t run against JD Vance. He will very likely run if Trump endorses Rubio,” a person close to Carlson told Playbook. Trump world is rolling its eyes. “Carlson has no impact on administration policy. He has no impact on D.C. policy from lawmakers. There is no discernible impact from him or his show on anything — it’s just a circle jerk,” one person said. Multiple others close to the White House told Playbook no one is taking the threat seriously. “He’s not building a new party, he’s building a new subscription model,” the person added.
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A message from AHIP: Congress enacted the No Surprises Act to protect consumers from surprise medical bills and to lower healthcare costs. But egregious abuse of the law by certain private equity-backed providers is causing billions in wasteful spending and Americans are footing the bill. Policy action is needed to stop this windfall. Learn more. |
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Not everyone is laughing. Daily Wire co-founder Jeremy Boreing — one of Carlson’s most piercing critics — told Playbook he found the vision Carlson laid out last week “terrifying.” “He’s essentially saying the American order, the constitutional order, is over,” Boreing said. “To advance his agenda will require a kind of authoritarianism that is novel in America.” Others in Trump’s orbit theorize the effort could become a vehicle for attacking the president to damage Republicans in November. “Get just enough folks to stay home so we lose the House and the president gets destroyed,” one person close to Trump said. Carlson arch-nemesis Laura Loomer agrees: “They view this as an opportunity to suppress the GOP vote, so that they can get revenge on Donald Trump.” “They’re mad that Daddy cut them off, and now they’re trying to get back at Daddy by throwing a hissy fit before the midterms in an effort to get him to notice them and their outbursts,” she added, referring to the larger group including Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Joe Kent. MTG scoffed at the idea: “It’s a strategy for the Trump administration and Republicans at large to acknowledge that they have betrayed campaign promises.” NADER’S TAKE: Playbook rang up perhaps the most iconic third-party candidate in modern U.S. history — Ralph Nader, who said he didn’t think the former Fox News host had it in him, dismissing it as a publicity stunt and “playing the same game that those influencers play.” “Talkers don’t usually start third parties, because it takes an immense amount of daily concentration and work,” Nader said. “He doesn’t have the staff. He doesn’t have the time.” If Carlson were serious, Nader said, he’d simply “bolster the Libertarian Party.” “It’s like a guy who is talking on the street corner — ‘Read all about it, read all about it’ — and then he decides he wants to start a newspaper.” On today’s Playbook Podcast: Dasha and Will weigh the viability of a third party in 2026, and Playbook’s Irie Sentner shares the view from ground zero of Democrats’ next civil war battlefield in Wisconsin.
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A message from AHIP:  
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THE DOWNLOAD |
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THE REPLACEMENTS: Local Republicans in western North Carolina meet tonight to select a replacement nominee to run for Rep. Chuck Edwards’ seat after he dropped his reelection bid. Some prominent state lawmakers have passed, but state Rep. Jennifer Balkcom is in the mix along with Matthew Burril, Ken McKim, Chad Nesbitt and Kristie Sluder in this competitive district, per The Assembly’s Bryan Anderson.
- Today is also the deadline for dropouts in two closely watched races: Rep. Max Miller’s (R-Ohio) embattled reelection bid and the candidacies of Alani Bankhead and Seth Bodnar in a three-way Montana Senate race. But Miller needed to set the process in motion by Saturday to allow Republicans to replace him, and neither Democrat Bankhead nor independent Bodnar has proven willing to budge so far. Bankhead has a press conference at 2 p.m. Eastern.
CARTE BLANCHE: Trump will swear in Todd Blanche as AG at 2 p.m., placing the soon-to-be permanent AG under added scrutiny from Donald Trump. In the coming months, he’ll face high-stakes decisions on the federal “grand conspiracy” investigation, efforts to push unproven election fraud claims, probes of left-wing networks and prosecutions of Trump enemies, WaPo’s Jeremy Roebuck runs down. Separately, Trump announced Will Scharf will move from White House staff secretary to White House counsel, replacing David Warrington next month, per POLITICO’s Cheyenne Haslett. ON THE TRAIL: It’s the last day of campaigning before tomorrow’s primaries in Wisconsin, Minnesota, South Carolina, Connecticut, Alabama and Vermont. Democrats will stare down a number of fights between progressives and establishment/moderate Dems. In the Minnesota Senate race, the long tail of ICE’s Minneapolis surge looms, per AP’s Jonathan Cooper. Republicans’ biggest faceoff is in South Carolina’s special Senate primary. Trump is holding a tele-rally to boost Sen. Darline Graham this evening. A runoff in two weeks looks likely. CHOPPY WATERS: Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed’s resurfaced comments that he “hate[s] Mackinac so much” — a reference to popular travel destination Mackinac Island he made in 2018 and captured in a 2020 documentary — are set to be fodder for some of the first social media ads of his general election matchup against Republican Mike Rogers. Senate Leadership Fund is running a mid five-figure advertising campaign across northern Michigan to boost them, a spokesperson tells Adam.
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Catch up on On the Road with Jonathan Martin Season 2 is underway. Jonathan Martin sits down with key political players in the places that shaped them for conversations on power, strategy, 2028 and what comes next for American politics.
Watch now. |
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THE FRONT PAGE |
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IMMIGRATION FILES: ICE’s unprecedented mass detention policy has overloaded the judicial system, which has ruled about 10,000 times against it, with emergency lawsuits, POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney reports in a sweeping must-read look at the policy’s impact. The two-page policy change, which is now heading to the Supreme Court, has upended tens of thousands of lives — including longtime residents and people with legal protections — while overwhelming judges, lawyers and even DOJ. Meanwhile, as an expiring contract left many immigrant children facing court without lawyers this month, POLITICO’s Eric Bazail-Eimil captured the fallout in a Virginia courtroom, though a court ruling Friday may lead to the funding’s return as soon as today. TRUMP VS. CONGRESS: Senate Republicans’ hope for August recess, now that they’re finally back home, is to shore up their control of the chamber in the midterms. Their fear is that Trump will pop off again about their failure to pass the SAVE America Act — and rile up more problems with the GOP base, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney reports. Once lawmakers return, they’ll have to square off with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over his request for a record military budget, including through reconciliation, POLITICO’s Connor O’Brien and Mark Satter report. A number of top Republicans remain unconvinced. BRAWL IN THE BAY: As Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) exits Congress, she’s getting very involved in the increasingly bitter fight to succeed her, POLITICO’s Dustin Gardiner reports. State Sen. Scott Wiener finished first in the top-two primary, but Pelosi is firing up her political machine big time to try to get San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan to victory — including asking Dolores Huerta to switch her endorsement (which didn’t work). EPSTEIN’S DEATH AND TRUTH: “The anniversary of [Jeffrey] Epstein’s demise is occasion to note two paradoxes that have emerged over those seven years — and most vividly in recent months, as it has become clear Epstein was a more consequential figure, and more emblematic of a sordid age, even than we knew at the time,” POLITICO’s John Harris writes in his latest column today. “Both paradoxes come courtesy, however grudgingly or unintentionally, of Epstein’s one-time friend, President Donald Trump. POLITICO IN SACRAMENTO: Tune in tomorrow at noon PT/3 p.m. ET for POLITICO’s California Agenda: Sacramento Summit, where power players will delve into the policy decisions shaping the future of energy, technology and the global economy. Key interviews include Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), California gubernatorial candidates Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton, Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), California AG Rob Bonta, Paramount’s Makan Delrahim, OpenAI’s Ann O’Leary and more. Register for the livestream here
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A message from AHIP:  
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5 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW |
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1. THE ART OF THE DEAL: Trump sounded likelier to squeeze Iran economically than militarily in his latest comments to Axios’ Barak Ravid, saying “we are low-keying it” and “only semi-negotiating with them.” This turn toward deescalation comes as Tehran remains rather high-key in its demands for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Even though Iran and Oman are close to striking a deal, per Reuters, it would depend on significant concessions. It would be, effectively, a return to the June memorandum of understanding. Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran still haven’t restarted, Iran said.
- The upshot: “Trump’s options for walking away from the conflict have again narrowed,” after he’d been ready to accept the reopening of the strait as an off-ramp and a “victory” in itself that he’d pitch to Americans, WSJ’s Alex Ward reports.
2. THE NEW EDUCATION DEPARTMENT: After the Trump administration gutted and reoriented the department’s Office for Civil Rights to focus on conservative ideas, dozens of near-finished investigations into school discrimination have been frozen rather than finalized, WaPo’s Laura Meckler reports. Staffers say they were moved away from probing racial and sexual discrimination cases, and settlements in these realms have slowed to a trickle. 3. 2028 WATCH: The increasingly prominent 314 Action Fund, which bolsters Democratic scientists running for office, is all in on Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) for president, Axios’ Holly Otterbein reports. 4. SURVEY SAYS: The latest Reuters/Ipsos polling finds more than 60 percent of Americans want the government to get tougher in oversight of social media companies. Two-thirds of the country wants age-verification laws to block kids under 16 from the platforms. And an overwhelming majority worry about social media’s impact on children — though they personally find it fun. 5. UNDER THE RADAR: “Watchdog for $46 billion tribal gambling industry can’t enforce the law without a chairperson,” by AP’s Savannah Peters in Albuquerque, New Mexico: “The last chairperson of the National Indian Gaming Commission stepped down from the role in January. President Donald Trump has not nominated anyone to fill the vacancy. Absent a chair, the commission is unable to perform some key responsibilities, like enforcing legal and safety violations, approving new tribal gambling laws and certifying management agreements between tribes and casino operators.”
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Introducing Canberra Playbook Washington reads Playbook before Washington is awake. Now Canberra gets the same treatment: AUKUS, critical minerals and the Indo-Pacific's busiest policy agenda, every weekday morning. Canberra Playbook launches 17 August.
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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MOVING ON — Beth the vacuum cleaner may be dead, but Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) has already landed an offer for a used version of a newer model — which will also be named Beth. HEALTH UPDATE — Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) said she’s moving from the hospital to rehab after her car accident. THE MOOCH — Anthony Scaramucci’s podcast with Katty Kay, “The Rest Is Politics: US,” has become a big hit in the U.K. and among other Western elites looking for an explanation of Trump and his America, NYT’s Matt Flegenheimer reports. The majority of its audience, which can top 1 million people per episode, is outside the U.S. “No doubt there are second acts in Trump-era American lives,” he writes. “What is harder to square is this first act for Scaramucci as a major public figure on another continent.” OUT AND ABOUT — Young America’s Foundation hosted a rally at Mount Vernon and its largest-ever annual National Conservative Student Conference at the J.W. Marriott, wrapping up Saturday, to celebrate the semiquincentennial and train college students to advance the conservative movement. SPOTTED: Ben Shapiro, Boris Johnson, Scott Walker, George Allen, Jason Miyares, Scott Jennings, Andrew Klavan, Isabel Brown, Cabot Phillips, Allen West, Daniel Di Martino, Ben Carson, Arthur Laffer, Mollie Hemingway, Caroline Downey and Tim Rice. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Eduardo Negrón has been hired as comms director and spokesperson for former VP Kamala Harris. He previously worked at Liftoff Campaigns. TRANSITIONS — Jess Smith will be chief of staff and VP at the Center for American Progress. She previously worked at the Leadership Conference on Civil & Human Rights, and is a Biden White House and HHS alum. … Democrats for Education Reform is adding Katja Landau as chief of staff and Elizabeth Tullos as comms and external affairs manager. Landau previously worked at Bezos Academy. Tullos previously worked at ExcelinEd. … Rodney Hildebrand is now associate director of political engagement at the American Academy of Dermatology Association. He previously worked at Covestro. ENGAGED — Charles Correll III, chief speechwriter to Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), and Brooke Starr, deputy chief of staff to Sen. Alan Armstrong (R-Okla.), got engaged Saturday. He proposed at the Red Fox Inn and Tavern in Middleburg, Virginia, and her parents flew out from Oregon to surprise her. The two met at a Senate Working Group BBQ in 2024. Pic, via Lydia Emrich … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Axios’ Alex Thompson … CBS’ Nancy Cordes … Andrew Sullivan … Kevin McAlister … Jessica Wehrman … Sarah Bryant Burns … Sarah Kyle of Eli Lilly … Joshua Karp … Justin Jenkins … Nvidia’s Sarah Weinstein … Alex Marquardt … CNN’s Susie Xu … John Dunagan of Highland Advocacy Group … Lissandra Villa de Petrzelka … Red+Blue Strategies’ Ben Klein … Invariant’s Noah Marine … ACLU’s Ally Harpootlian … John McManus of the McManus Group … DTE Energy’s Andy Coulouris … Robert Cogan … Arnold Punaro … former Rep. Andy Levin (D-Mich.) … Clarissa Rojas of Pinterest … GMMB’s Andrew Zucker … Katie Papa … Herald Group’s Lily Reckford … Karla Carpenter of Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine’s office … ABC’s Averi Harper … Casey Clemmons of Rep. Maggie Goodlander’s (D-N.H.) office Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
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A message from AHIP: Rampant abuse of the No Surprises Act has created a windfall for PE-backed providers and arbitration middlemen.
In one case, a surgical assistant was awarded more than $22,000 per hour. In another, plastic surgeons collected $440,000 for one procedure.
Action is needed to fix surprise billing arbitration and protect consumers from this private equity gold rush. Learn more. |
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