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By Ali Bianco |
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With help from Eli Okun and Irie Sentner Good Sunday morning. This is Ali Bianco, in the driver’s seat as we prepare to kick off a busy summer for Congress. Let’s get into it — send me your tips.
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DRIVING THE DAY |
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If his posts are any indication, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) has a lot on his mind. | Allison Robbert/AP |
President Donald Trump on the campaign trail told the story of a woman who nurses a snake back to life, but dies when it bites her. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) went viral with a similar story last week, in which a scorpion and frog both die when the scorpion stings the frog while crossing a river. It’s an “old, but apt fable,” as Cornyn put it — and it’s one that could be instructive as Congress prepares to enter a crunching summer season — with the midterms no longer a hypothetical and a long legislative to-do list. The Senate will return from recess to a hell week. The chamber is tasked with taking back up the party-line immigration enforcement bill, and the complicated politics of the DOJ’s “Anti-Weaponization Fund,” which derailed efforts to pass it before the White House’s original deadline of tomorrow. Senators are also picking up reauthorization of expiring government spy powers, and the appropriations committee is starting markups this week ahead of October’s deadline to fund the government. Meanwhile, the House won’t kick off in earnest until Wednesday. But how much of the GOP’s wishlist gets done — and how long lawmakers stay in town until they return to their districts to campaign — will depend largely on the personalities in play. Speaker Mike Johnson can’t afford more than a couple of defections in the House, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s margins aren’t such a sure bet anymore, either. There are three main groups of Republicans to watch across both chambers who will be feeling the realities of election season bear down on them — and who will prove essential to the margins. 1) The “YOLO” caucus: These are the lawmakers who Trump has already personally helped sack that now have room to maneuver unencumbered by party pressures. It’s Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who has proved the veracity of his ability to exert leverage during the confirmation process for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. It’s Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who’s been a consistent headache for the majority’s numbers. It’s Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who after losing his primary cast the deciding vote to advance the Iran war powers resolution (yet another thing the Senate will have to deal with starting this week). Cornyn is the newest addition here — but he doesn’t cut the image of a Republican rebel. Multiple House and Senate GOP aides expressed skepticism that Cornyn will significantly change how he operates within the caucus. But if his posts are any indication, Cornyn has a lot on his mind. Now that he’s in the mix with Cassidy and Tillis, “sticky things get a little stickier,” as one Senate GOP leadership aide told Playbook. In the House, there’s another name that may soon be added to this list: Rep. Nancy Mace, who’s running in the GOP primary for South Carolina governor in just over a week. Both Mace and Rep. Ralph Norman, the Freedom Caucus hard-liner, have been vying for the Republican nomination for months. But this week Trump endorsed the South Carolina Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette for the job. If she loses, Mace could become more of a wild card. Keep your eyes on this race.
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2) The House’s hard-liners: The House Freedom Caucus has found some success bending Johnson’s ear. But many of the House’s mavericks are on their way out too. Rep. Chip Roy lost his primary bid for Texas AG. Some like Andy Biggs, who’s running for Arizona governor, and Byron Donalds, running for Florida governor, have landed Trump’s endorsement. But others, like Norman in South Carolina, are in stacked races where they may end up out of office entirely after November. It’s a safe bet that the caucus will continue to throw its weight around, even if they do ultimately bow to pressure or notch a compromise from GOP leadership. But they can’t fully afford to get on Trump’s bad side, with his grip on the voter base still ironclad. “They will benefit if Trump doesn’t say anything,” a House GOP leadership aide told Playbook. But the large swath of caucus members singing a swan song could be a pain for leadership, as more time spent on hourslong procedural votes will eat into the already-short legislative calendar very quickly. Arguably the hard-liner to watch is the one who already has a target on her back from Trump: Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert. Though it’s too late for a primary challenger to take Trump’s invitation, any movements from her could draw more intense ire from the White House. 3) The swing seat moderates: These are the ones with the most at stake. There’s been private calls for months for an increased focus on affordability as the midterms approach. But increasingly those calls are spilling out into the open, as more moderates start to carve their own lane to keep hold of their competitive seats. There’s Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), another who drew a threat from Trump but whose seat is essential for Republicans to hold the House. There’s Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.), whose immigration proposals have exposed rifts within MAGA. There’s Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), who has recently campaigned alongside Trump but must also walk the line of being a blue-state Republican. And perhaps the biggest swing moderate of them all, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), is facing one of the biggest Senate challenges this cycle. It’s the moderates who will be pushing hard for the affordability agenda, through items like the House-passed housing bill or the long-stalled farm bill. Some like Fitzpatrick have gotten more vocal on the Iran war and the cost of gas prices, while Salazar has sounded the alarm on Latino voters. With election season underway, the room for divided attention will get slimmer and slimmer — and this group’s votes will be essential for anything to pass. “Math gets harder the closer you get to midterms,” the Senate GOP aide told Playbook.
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SUNDAY BEST … — NEC Director Kevin Hassett on the concerns over gas prices on ABC’s “This Week”: “Energy prices are high, they're high around the world, gas prices are high. That's extremely frustrating, and it's something that we're working on, doing lots of different things to minimize the disruption, and hopefully again the problem with the Gulf will be over soon … but you know, really it's like a month or two until everything gets back.” How that translates to midterms: “Look, in the end, people look at their wallets. They decide how to vote. And if they look at their wallets and look at how much money they have after, you know, the increase in prices, they’re going to find that they have a lot more money.” More from POLITICO’s David Cohen — Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) on the war with Iran and gas prices, on “Fox News Sunday”: “In this last week that I've been at home in Delaware, the number one thing I hear from Delawareans is about the cost of gas and groceries, health care and housing. You just had Kevin Hassett on. Boy, things are really sunny in his America. But what I'm hearing about is real concerns about the rising costs that we're facing and how we're going to get out of this. That requires reopening the Strait of Hormuz.” — Former VP Mike Pence on the DOJ’s “Anti-Weaponization Fund” on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “It's a bad idea from the start. And I would encourage the administration just to drop it. … I mean, it's deeply offensive to me that you could have a fund that could even possibly compensate people who assaulted police officers or vandalized the Capitol on Jan. 6.” More from NBC TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.
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5 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR 1. CALIFORNIA DREAMIN’: The California’s governor’s race is the marquee contest that everyone is watching this week. The Democratic primary has been mired by a crowded field and a sexual assault scandal that ushered out one of the party’s top candidates. To make sense of it all, POLITICO’s Katy Murphy convened a must-read roundtable with our top reporters in California on what to watch for on Tuesday. There was a stretch when Democrats seriously feared getting locked out of the top two. Is that still a real possibility, or does a Democratic runoff in November actually seem more likely? “It seems very remote now — in fact, the smarter money is on two Democrats making the runoff in [Tom Steyer] and [Xavier Becerra],” per POLITICO’s Jeremy White. “Still unlikely, but likelier than a two-Republican finish that locks out Democrats. A sign of how topsy-turvy this race has been!” Read the full roundup for insights on what could separate Steyer and Becerra, what the stakes are for Republicans in the Golden State and much more. 2. WAR REPORT: Trump has sent back changes to the proposed Iran deal after leaving his Situation Room meeting on Friday mum on any outcome for negotiations, CNN’s Kevin Liptak reports. Privately, he asked for several amendments to the deal to strengthen certain points on Iran’s nuclear material and change the wording around the Strait of Hormuz, Axios’ Barak Ravid reports. Trump had previously said the deal was “largely finalized,” but the latest back-and-forth now extends negotiations into another week.
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POLITICO Live June 10: POLITICO's Energy Summit will convene administration officials, lawmakers, industry executives and more for urgent conversations on what’s next for the nation's energy agenda – including energy investments, climate goals, and more. Register to attend now. |
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3. THE MAINE LINE: “Graham Platner’s Wife Flagged Sexually Explicit Texts to His Senate Campaign,” by WSJ’s Tarini Parti and Aaron Zitner: “Amy Gertner, who married Platner in 2023, told the campaign about messages she had found early in their marriage in the spring of 2025. In late August, as some aides were conducting opposition research on their own candidate, Gertner disclosed the texts to a campaign aide to make sure they didn’t pose a risk to her husband’s nascent campaign, those people said. … Aides ultimately decided the texts were a private matter that was being handled by the couple in marriage counseling, a campaign official said. … In a statement provided by Platner’s campaign, Gertner said she believed she was confiding in an aide she considered a friend.” Platner’s campaign released a video recorded by Gertner yesterday supporting her husband. And Genevieve McDonald, a campaign aide with whom Gertner disclosed the messages, shared details of her texts with Gertner with the NYT. 4. A DAN DILEMMA: “Senator Dan Sullivan Has a New Challenger in Alaska: Dan Sullivan,” by NYT’s Tim Balk: “The field of contenders challenging Senator Dan S. Sullivan, a Republican who is up for re-election, has grown in recent days with a rather befuddling addition: Dan J. Sullivan, a former educator of no known relation, has entered the race. His arrival could cause a headache for Senator Sullivan, who is working to fend off a challenge from former Representative Mary Peltola … If some voters mistakenly vote for Dan J. Sullivan thinking they’re voting for Senator Sullivan, it could make the difference in a tight race.” 5. IMMIGRATION FILES: “Trump’s immigration enforcers look into buying ad data. Industry insiders fear what comes next,” by POLITICO’s Alfred Ng: “Immigration and Customs Enforcement published a request for information in January seeking input on how ‘commercial Big Data and Ad Tech providers can directly support investigations’ … ICE’s request is raising alarms for people like Brian O’Kelley, who helped create the advertising technology industry decades ago. He fears the government wants to purchase the data to open a new front for [Trump’s] immigration agenda.”
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Catch up on Season 1 of On the Road with Jonathan Martin POLITICO Politics Bureau Chief Jonathan Martin hits the road for candid conversations with key political players in the places they call home. Watch Season 1 for conversations with Govs. Josh Shapiro, Wes Moore, JB Pritzker and more on the issues shaping American politics — with plenty of local flavor along the way. Watch Season 1 now. |
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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THE COUNTDOWN TO 250 — After several of the musical acts for the Great American State Fair canceled, Trump announced he’ll headline the kickoff event himself, WaPo’s Natalie Allison scoops. “Artists are getting ‘the yips’” about performing, he wrote on Truth Social. But he also said the fair should cancel the greater concert series during the 16-day exposition, per NYT. WHO TELLS YOUR STORY — “Trump on His Presidential Library: He’ll Write His Own History,” by NYT’s Elizabeth Williamson and Minho Kim: “Mr. Trump had said that the $1 billion project, the priciest presidential library yet, could include a hotel and retail sales outlets. But more disturbing to historians and government watchdogs is his determination to own and control every document a presidential library would contain. … For eight decades, presidential libraries have served as public research centers run by the National Archives and Records Administration … But Mr. Trump … views those records as his personal property.” HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Jennifer Berlin … Charlie Meisch ... Debra DeShong … NOTUS’ Deirdre Walsh and Matt Berman … Julie Moos of The Forward … Clark Judge ... Elizabeth Dos Santos of Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart’s (R-Fla.) office … Amy Pfeiffer of Sen. Andy Kim’s (D-N.J.) office … Michael O’Connor of Williams & Connolly … Marilyn Tavenner … CNN’s Sara Sidner … former Reps. Duncan L. Hunter (R-Calif.) and Larry Bucshon (R-Ind.) … Dan Pino … former Del. Madeleine Bordallo (D-Guam) … Al From … DCI Group’s Maegan Rosenberg … Erik Telford … Sara Carter … HSGAC’s Allison Tinsey … Newsbusters’ P.J. Gladnick … Susana Castillo of D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser’s office … Brad Bosserman … Bert Kaufman … Jen Bristol of the Solar Energy Industries Association … Ali Noorani … POLITICO’s Haseb Alim … Phil Elwood … Keith Fernandez BONUS BIRTHDAY (was yesterday): Paul Frieser Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross.
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