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By Irie Sentner |
Presented by JPMorganChase |
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THE CATCH-UP |
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President Donald Trump greets Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, at a campaign rally at the Curtis D. Menard Memorial Sports Center, Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2026, in Wasilla, Alaska. | AP/Lindsey Wasson |
WASILLA, Alaska — Three weeks out from Election Day, President Donald Trump took a helicopter to a plane to another helicopter to a motorcade to an ice hockey rink in Alaska's Matanuska-Susitna Valley, traversing nearly 4,000 miles over more than eight hours to turn out his base here to help Republicans defend the Senate. But Trump’s trek might not be enough to save Sen. Dan Sullivan, who’s running in a tougher-than-expected race against Democrat Mary Peltola in a state where the president’s approval rating is underwater and independents outnumber both Republicans and Democrats. Alaska strategists and voters who spoke to Playbook acknowledged Sullivan faces a difficult path to reelection, despite Trump’s time investment and the outside money pouring in. “Very conservative MAGA voters can’t vote for you harder,” said Scott Kendall, a veteran political strategist who worked on two of Alaska GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s campaigns and was chief of staff to former Alaska Gov. Bill Walker. “Donald Trump’s support in this current climate is both a blessing and a curse,” Kendall noted. Even some Trump supporters at the rally admitted the outlook appeared bleak. “I think Alaska’s turning blue,” said Matt Niessink, a 45-year-old general contractor from Wasilla. He said he had voted for Trump three times and planned to support Republicans this year. What did he wish the president would do differently? “I wish he’d shut his mouth sometimes and not be such a pompous ass,” Niessink said. The president was here in Wasilla — population 10,556 — because the outlook is darkening for his party in a state he carried by 13 points just two years ago. In a midterm year defined by the cost of gas and groceries, the Last Frontier has been hit particularly hard, with the average price of diesel nearing $7 per gallon. In the Senate race, Peltola is flush with cash and leads Sullivan in most polls. MAGA Inc., the cash-rich Trump-aligned super PAC, is increasingly focusing on Alaska as one in a slate of states that can help Republicans hold the Senate, as Playbook scooped this week. Enter Trump, who has been spending the cycle’s crucial final weeks holding rallies in red states to juice support among his base, which tends to see depressed turnout in years when he’s not on the ballot. “That was a lot of flying,” the president said at the top of his remarks last night. “In fact, they were thinking about canceling. They said, ‘Sir, you’re very busy, this is very tough.’” But, Trump continued, he refused to cancel for a state he won three times. Echoing his comments at other red-state rallies, Trump asked the roaring crowd for “one big favor” — to “pretend that I'm on the ballot, because every time I've been on the ballot, we win.” He repeated his promise that Americans will receive $5,000 dividends if Republicans hold both chambers. “What this is about is getting out the vote,” Sullivan told reporters ahead of Trump’s remarks. “A rising tide of enthusiasm lifts all the candidates.” Unlike some other Republican candidates in tight races, Sullivan has shied away from distancing himself from the least popular aspects of Trump’s presidency. Sullivan proclaimed on stage at the rally that “the conflict in the Middle East is temporary. The true forever war is the national Democrats’ war against Alaska oil and gas and our jobs.” And although a campaign aide released a statement condemning Trump’s move to import Russian diesel, Sullivan did not join four of his Republican Senate colleagues, including Murkowski, who called on Trump to reverse the decision. Art Hackney, a veteran Republican strategist in Alaska, said “most of the people who support” Sullivan “think that he should” break more with the president. Hackney, who runs a pro-Sullivan super PAC called “We Stand with Dan,” attributed that choice to loyalty — but suggested that the president’s demand of fealty, and treatment of frequent dissenter Murkowski, could also be part of Sullivan’s calculus. “A lot of his longtime supporters and the people who are in the industries that would benefit from that wish he would be more blunt,” Hackney said. “But with what Murkowski has done, if Dan did something considered a disrespectful trigger or something, what do you think would happen? It could well have implications for things that affect Alaska's economy.” Good Wednesday afternoon. This is Irie Sentner. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Send me your Anchorage recommendations.
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7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW |
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1. INFLATION NATION: An unexpected inflation acceleration last month is boosting the chances of another Fed interest rate increase and dealing another blow to Republicans before Election Day, POLITICO’s Victoria Guida reports. There is renewed speculation among investors that the Fed might hike rates again later this month just days before Election Day, with markets pricing in roughly even odds that it will raise borrowing costs or hold them steady. But before the data release, senior central bankers suggested they were willing to be patient. That messaging might still keep the Fed on the sidelines, at least until the December meeting. 2. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: The Democratic Attorneys General Association pulled in $19 million in the third quarter across all entities. It’s the group’s highest-ever Q3 haul, bringing their total raised through the end of September to $40 million. “Additionally, our first two weeks of October have been our best ever,” said DAGA President Sean Rankin in a statement. “Even this late in the cycle, we continue to up our spending in new competitive pick-up states and shore up incumbents.” The increase underscores the growing influence of state attorneys general of both parties across the tech, energy, health and antitrust worlds and more. DAGA this month has announced new multimillion-dollar investments in the Florida and Georgia AG races, along with new internal polling that showed the Democrat ahead in Kansas. 3. TESTING THE WATERS: Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.) is considering entering the race to challenge Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) for the top Democratic spot on the House Financial Services Committee, POLITICO’s Jasper Goodman scoops. Though Foster hasn’t made a final decision, “his deliberations illustrate the mounting challenge that Waters, 88, faces as she seeks to remain the party’s leader on the Financial Services panel, a role she has held since 2013. Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.) told Waters on Tuesday that he plans to run against her for the job.”
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4. WAR REPORT: Ukraine is questioning whether the U.S. intentionally withheld intel on incoming Russian strikes on the country, CBS’ Aidan Stretch reports. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his country “received no advance warning from our partners” about a Russian ballistic missile attack on Kyiv and other areas yesterday. “The sources said American officials told their Ukrainian counterparts the system used to detect Russian missile launches had failed due to ‘bad weather.’ Ukrainian officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the topic, told CBS News they did not believe the excuse, and they accused the U.S. instead of ‘playing’ with the system.” 5. ON THE ROAD AGAIN: Kamala Harris is adding some presidential battleground states to the final sprint of her midterms travel, AP’s Bill Barrow reports. “Spanning from Oct. 21 to Oct. 30, Harris’ expanded closing stretch will now include New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Mississippi, along with a virtual event in Florida … Harris already had announced late October stops in Georgia and Nevada.” 6. SECURITY FOOTAGE: Republicans are betting big on Social Security, spending big on the issue in more than a dozen races across the country, WaPo’s Steve Thompson and Lydia Sidhom report. “The Post analysis found that Social Security is one of the most frequently mentioned economic issues by Republicans in competitive races, with the GOP spending about seven times more than Democrats on the issue. Republicans have spent more on ads mentioning Social Security even than ads mentioning grocery prices and health care costs (three times as much), utility bills (four times as much) and gas prices (five times as much).” 7. SUNSHINE SPLIT: Angie Nixon and David Jolly, the two Democrats at the top of the ticket in Florida, are running a real-time experiment on how to claw their way back to competitiveness in a state where Republicans have consolidated power, POLITICO’s Kimberly Leonard reports from Miami. How well they perform could shape the direction of the state party — not to mention the national party’s strategy for 2028. Pessimistic Florida Dems have worried that the political odd couple would make it harder to rally around a unified message. But interviews with 10 Democrats across Florida reveal they’re heads-down focused on trying to win where they can.
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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CLICKER — WaPo food critic Elazar Sontag is out with his inaugural “40 Best Restaurants in and around D.C.” list. TOUGH SCENES — Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.) got into a spat with a reporter who was interviewing him in a gaggle of journalists after his debate with Democratic challenger Dan Schwartz last night, when Harris accused one reporter who was filming the exchange of violating Maryland’s two-party consent law. But the law does not apply to situations where there is no reasonable expectation of privacy. “If you record, we will refer you to the prosecutor,” Harris said. Later in the video captured by The Baltimore Banner, Harris asks someone to “get an officer in here.” Watch the full exchange THE COIN BASE — “More than half of the top holders listed as competing for seats at President Trump's next meme coin dinner have used cryptocurrency exchanges that prohibit U.S. customers, indicating that many of the buyers are based overseas,” CBS’ Gabe Kaminsky and colleagues report. “The gala, set for Nov. 22 at the Trump National Golf Club outside Washington, D.C., will seat the 185 largest holders of the $TRUMP meme coin, according to the website for Fight Fight Fight LLC, the company behind the coin.” POOL REPORT — A report commissioned by the contractor that worked on Trump’s overhaul of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool found that the coating on the bottom “failed in at least 85 places because of errors in the renovation, including the premature refilling of the basin before the liner had fully dried,” WaPo’s Meg Kelly and colleagues scoop. “Trump has generally attributed the damage to vandals, but the report makes no mention of vandalism to the liner and blames the problems on the use of improper materials and a rush to complete the job.” PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — Emails obtained by WaPo’s Jonathan Edwards show the extent to which Rick Canny, the Kennedy Center’s new head of artistic programming, has helped “reshape the institution’s programming, ticketing and business operations for nearly the entirety of President Donald Trump’s takeover.” (Back in April, POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman reported that Canny made a series of anti-Trump comments in meetings and conversations last year, according to three people who heard the remarks.) TRANSITIONS — Ted Posner is now a partner at Wilson Sonsini. He most recently was at Baker Botts and is a Treasury alum. … Rachel Pick is joining the Council of Producers & Distributors of Agrotechnology as VP of government relations. She most recently worked for AmericanHort and is a Chuck Grassley and USDA alum. WEEKEND WEDDING — Olivia Rinaldi, a White House reporter for CBS News, and William Clarke, a senior director at The Points Guy, got married Saturday at the Willard InterContinental Hotel. They celebrated with joy, laughter — and dancing to a lot of Taylor Swift songs. Olivia’s father, Paul, left many among the crowd in tears following his speech. Instapics … SPOTTED: Norah O’Donnell, Geoff Tracy, Weijia Jiang and Luther Lowe, Ed and Valerie O’Keefe, Fin Gómez and Sarah March Gómez, Julie Morse Goff, Jake Rosen, Adam Verdugo, Sara Cook, Gabrielle Ake, Elizabeth Campbell, Richard Escobedo, Kris Van Cleave, Jake Taylor, Kate Sullivan and Michael Gold. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Rebecca Ballhaus, an investigative reporter at the WSJ, and Zach Long, CEO of ConductorAI, welcomed Leo on Monday. Pic — Sonny Joy Nelson, founder of Extol Strategies and a Trump White House alum, and Sam Klingsporn welcomed Jude on Friday. Instapics Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editors Giuseppe Macri, Garrett Ross and Kyler Alvord. |
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