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By Ali Bianco and Makayla Gray |
Presented by |
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YOU DON’T HAVE THE VOTES: Senators are heading home until June with no text revealed on reconciliation 2.0, following a tense lunch with acting AG Todd Blanche on the DOJ’s “anti-weaponization” fund that was cold comfort for GOP skeptics, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney and Calen Razor report. Blanche’s attempt to quash concerns made little headway as GOP leaders believed enough members would get behind an amendment push to target the fund. The Senate’s departure means both chambers will have to retake reconciliation when they get back starting June 1 — which is the White House’s deadline. Speaker Mike Johnson had already floated the House picking up reconciliation when they came back, as concerns mounted about attendance issues in both chambers by Friday. But the weaponization issue won’t be any easier on the House side — Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) and Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) are drafting legislation to ax the fund, per POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill and Kelsey Brugger. Today’s timeline: Johnson’s meeting with the White House on reconciliation this afternoon was canceled, per Punchbowl. The House is moving the bill in Friday’s scheduled vote to today’s 4:30 p.m. vote series and then heading home for recess, Meredith reports.
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THE CATCH-UP |
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President Donald Trump is tightening his grip on the MAGA base, and Republicans are itching to prove they can hold his critical coalition together to maintain House control come November. One of their big challenges — flipping key House seats in Latino-dominated areas that Democrats represented for years. The NRCC is bullish they can pull it off. And they’re pointing to three Trump-endorsed Latino candidates in their “MAGA Majority” program as evidence: Eric Flores in Texas’ 34th District, Tano Tijerina in Texas’ 28th’s District and Greg Cunningham in New Mexico’s 2nd District. “Over the past decade, Hispanic voters have been steadily moving toward Republicans,” the NRCC’s Christian Martinez told Playbook. “This coalition didn’t happen by accident.” So the GOP is pitching “a new generation focused on delivering economic opportunity, public safety, and the American Dream,” he said. “That’s how Republicans are earning the trust of Hispanic communities, and how we will expand and keep the House.” The back-to-back victories of Trump-endorsed candidates in primaries from Louisiana to Kentucky this week, plus his endorsement in the Texas Senate GOP primary runoff — all at the expense of incumbents — erased any doubt about the ferocity of Trump’s sway on the base. While the base is critical to any GOP victory, swing voters could make or break the GOP’s razor-thin margins — and there’s few blocs swingier this cycle than Latinos. “We value the same things, we’re conservative in our nature,” Cunningham told Playbook in an interview. “That’s what I’m trying to appeal to and speak to, is the real part of who we are as Hispanic people here.” Republicans argue there’s been no greater opening for their party than in the last few years. Trump cut deep into Democrats’ margins with the voting bloc in 2024, in some cases doubling support across areas like south Texas. Yet recent numbers show warning signs for the GOP. Democrats managed to successfully flip several Latino Trump voters in the east in 2025. And Trump’s approval numbers with Latinos aren’t at 2024 levels — the latest NYT/Siena poll released yesterday put him at net 71 percent disapproval. The candidates say they’re undeterred. “This narrative that the Hispanic voter is running back to the Democratic Party — it is a false narrative,” Flores told Playbook in an interview. “It just isn't right.” Flores, an Army veteran and prosecutor, is taking on Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in his Rio Grande Valley seat. Flores calls himself a “product of South Texas” and argues Latinos there are primed to continue trending Republican. “It's simple: they care about their families, they care about public safety, they care about economic opportunity,” Flores said, adding the GOP’s “working families tax cuts” and control over the border go a long way. Democrats are eager to slam the GOP on rising costs, messaging that the GOP is too focused on immigration funding and the White House ballroom instead of gas prices. Multiple new polls this week paint a picture of growing frustration over affordability. South Texans are “fed up” and “costs are surging on everything,” Gonzalez said in a statement. “Latino voters are honest, hardworking individuals who simply want the tools to get ahead in life … [Latinos] will see right through Rubber Stamp Eric’s facade in November.” In South Texas, it’s not quite so cut and dry. Border Patrol and law enforcement rank among the major employers of Latinos in the area. But affordability is still king. “We’re worried about what everybody else is worried about — how to put food on the table, how to make sure that we can gas up on the gas pumps,” Tijerina told Playbook in an interview. “We’re smart people, we’re going to stay more independent down here,” Tijerina added. And while he acknowledged the historic trends of the party in power taking losses in midterm elections, he argued Democrats “haven’t proved themselves” either. “That’s why I completely left [the Democratic Party], because enough is enough,” he said. The Webb County judge aptly noted that in a place like Texas’ 28th, voters will be more swayed by the candidate than their party affiliation. That’s a reality that incumbent Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar exemplifies. Cuellar said in a statement he’s “consistently fought for affordability, commonsense border security, and treating families with respect. I don’t blindly follow Washington policies. I fight for South Texas.” And over in New Mexico, Cunningham — a Marine veteran and former detective — is looking at a more gradual bubbling of GOP support (not quite the massive swings of the RGV). Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez won in 2022 against the Republican incumbent, but the state changed hands multiple times in the last several years. Vasquez said in a statement he’s “never stopped fighting” for his district’s Latinos, who “want results — not the MAGA extremism that has made their lives more expensive and torn apart our families.” Cunningham cautioned against ignoring the reality of the pinch at the gas pump — “It’s a mistake to tell people ‘don't believe your eyes,’” he said — but argued the progress of Trump’s tax cuts helping voters isn’t mutually exclusive. “We’re one of the highest taxed populaces in the country,” he said. Taken together, these districts will be among the biggest contests for which side can win over these deciding voters and take the House. “It’s downright laughable that Republicans think that just because they’re running candidates with a Hispanic last name, Latino voters will forget how the GOP cut their health care, made everyday goods unaffordable, and supported unlawful ICE operations based on racial profiling,” the DCCC’s Bridget Gonzalez said in a statement. “The last thing Latinos will vote for is a new set of Trump minions who will never fight for them.” Good Thursday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop us a line at abianco@politico.com and mgray@politico.com.
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A message from Vapor Technology Association: The science is clear: Vaping saves lives, and youth vaping is at historic lows. Now Acting FDA Commissioner Diamantas must fix the broken system to save vaping: establish predictable scientific guidelines for PMTA review, enforce against illicit products that fail those standards, and protect adult Americans relying on flavored vapes to quit smoking. FDA policy must change to catch up to its own data. The window is open — act now. |
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6 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW |
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1. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Messin’ with Texas: The Lone Star Liberty PAC, a super PAC supporting Texas AG Ken Paxton, is going up tomorrow with a six-figure ad buy against Democratic candidate James Talarico — the first since Trump endorsed Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn earlier this week, Playbook’s Irie Sentner scoops. The ad, titled “Low T Talarico,” opens with a clip of Trump calling Talarico a “weird candidate” followed by a series of past statements from Talarico. Watch the ad And over in Texas’ 35th District: “A mysterious, GOP-linked super PAC is roiling a Texas Democratic primary,” by POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky and Andrew Howard: “It’s the latest in a string of interventions by the new super PAC that appears to be trying to elevate weaker Democrats against Republicans to ease the GOP’s path in November.” 2. BRAVE NEW WORLD: The White House abruptly delayed Trump’s signing of its long-awaited AI executive order, as Trump put some distance between himself and the policy his staff crafted, POLITICO’s Jacob Wendler, Cheyenne Haslett and John Hewitt Jones report. It was not immediately clear when the signing would be rescheduled. The directive was set to lay out the administration’s response to rising concerns about cybersecurity threats posed by cutting-edge artificial intelligence models. “I didn’t like certain aspects of it,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office today. “We’re leading China, we're leading everybody, and I don’t want to do anything that's going to get in the way of that lead.” 3. INSIDE THE AUTOPSY: The DNC finally released its 2024 election autopsy report after months of drama swirled around the secretive document. The report, which was authored by Democratic strategist Paul Rivera, over 192 pages paints a bleak picture for Democrats and detailing how the party failed to connect with voters. But the report, while consistently critical, outright ignores some of the defining issues of the campaign, including Israel and Gaza, POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky, Andrew Howard and Dasha Burns note. Takeaways:
- “In the current media ecosystem, Republicans own and Democrats rent. Democrats pay for seasonal access to the networks, stations, platforms, and newspapers owned by Republicans or right-wing entities, to advertise and communicate with voters,” the report reads.
- “Democrats need a new, forward-thinking electoral strategy focusing on more than who or what is on the ballot, and addressing how Democrats can reconnect with Americans at every level across our country.”
The reactions:
- “We should take this autopsy with a massive grain of salt,” longtime Dem strategist Adrienne Elrod said. “Clearly, the people who put it together ran a highly ineffective, ill-researched process. Therefore it’s difficult to draw constructive conclusions.”
- “It feels like what the DNC is doing is cherry-picking the parts of it that it wants to actually release, that [are] less problematic for the party going forward, because most of the stuff that we’re reading right now is … not groundbreaking,” said Ashley Etienne, who was comms director for former VP Kamala Harris.
Each page at the top of the report notes: “Disclaimer: This document reflects the views of the author, not the DNC. The DNC was not provided with the underlying sourcing, interviews, or supporting data for many of the assertions contained herein and therefore cannot independently verify the claims presented.” And DNC Chair Ken Martin said in a statement that the report “does not meet my standards, and it won’t meet your standards, but I am doing this because people need to be able to trust the Democratic Party and trust our word.” 4. THE STORY EVERYONE IS CHATTERING ABOUT: “Tom Kean’s Neighbors Haven’t Seen Him Either,” by NOTUS’ Jose Pagliery: “The people who live on Kean’s affluent block noticed the Republican lawmaker’s disappearance long before it became the subject of a political mystery. Kean’s two-story Tudor-style house has been dark for weeks, according to three neighbors who spoke to NOTUS but preferred not to be identified to avoid irking this politically powerful member of their community. Kean’s wife hasn’t been spotted walking the family dog. No one could remember the last time her car was parked in the driveway. A single gardening glove was left on the front lawn this past weekend.” 5. TRAIL MIX: Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan has dropped out of the Michigan gubernatorial race, citing frustration over the war with Iran and other external conditions, as well as wanting to consolidate the candidate pool, State Affairs’ Zach Gorchow and Lily Guiney report. 6. THE EPSTEIN SAGA: “House Oversight confronts toughest Epstein interview to date,” by POLITICO’s Hailey Fuchs: “Sarah Kellen, a former assistant to Jeffrey Epstein, told congressional investigators Thursday she was ‘sexually and psychologically abused’ by the convicted sex offender, according to a copy of her prepared opening statement.” House Oversight Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) said before the interview he suspected it would be the hardest conversation with a witness to date.
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A message from Vapor Technology Association: Youth vaping is at its lowest level in over twelve years — a direct result of common-sense restrictions that the vapor industry championed. The FDA's own data tells a clear story. Yet policy has failed to keep pace with science.
With new leadership now in place, Acting Commissioner Diamantas has a narrow and consequential window to deliver real reform built on three pillars: transparent, evidence-based scientific standards for PMTA review so e-cigarette manufacturers know exactly what is required; consistent enforcement against bad actors failing those standards— the actual source of the problem; and surgical enforcement criteria that target predatory design and youth-facing marketing, not the compliant products millions of American smokers depend on.
Protecting youth and preserving adult consumer access are not competing goals. A real and well-designed regulatory framework achieves both. The science is clear. The leadership is in place. It's time to fix the system and save vaping. |
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TALK OF THE TOWN |
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BEAUTIFICATION GREEN LIGHT — The Commission of Fine Arts, stocked with Trump allies, approved the designs for Trump’s 250-foot triumphal arch proposed to be erected at Memorial Circle, WaPo’s Dan Diamond and Jonathan Edwards report. Arts commissioners praised the arch’s proposed design today, calling it a fitting addition to the capital’s monumental core, but many have criticized the size and obstructiveness of the structure. The National Capital Planning Commission plans to review the arch design on June 4. WEDDING BELLS — “Donald Trump Jr. and Bettina Anderson to wed over Memorial Day weekend,” by Page Six’s Oli Coleman and Mara Siegler: “We hear the couple will say ‘I do’ in front of a small group of family and friends at an intimate ceremony on a private island in the Bahamas. … by the end of April, the pair — who were initially eyeing a wedding at the White House — were considering pushing back the big day due to the war in Iran. ‘They’re very aware that a lavish wedding at the White House while people are dying wouldn’t be well-received,’ an insider previously told Page Six.” Trump’s take: “He’d like me to go, but it’s going to be just a small little private affair, and I’m going to try and make it,” Trump told the NY Post. He added it’s “not good timing for me” in part because of the war with Iran. OUT AND ABOUT — Members, staffers, lobbyists and longtime Future Forum allies celebrated the 10th anniversary of Future Forum and the Future Forum Foundation at Eastern Market’s North Hall last night for a Catalina Wine Mixer-themed party complete with yacht rock vibes, wine and plenty of “Step Brothers” references. SPOTTED: Reps. Morgan McGarvey (D-Ky.), Brittany Pettersen (D-Colo.), Gabe Amo (D-R.I.), Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), Derek Tran (D-Calif.), Tim Kennedy (D-N.Y.), Nikki Budzinski (D-Ill.), Sarah Elfreth (D-Md.), Darren Soto (D-Fla.), Nanette Diaz Barragán (D-Calif.) and Johnny Olszewski (D-Md.), Fred Humphries, Roberto Fierro, Jenny Kane and Lin Whitehouse. — SPOTTED last night at Freedom House’s annual awards and 85th-anniversary celebration: Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), Reps. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.), Mike Turner (R-Ohio), Jason Crow (D-Colo.) and Buddy Carter (R-Ga.), Jamie Fly, Norman Willox, Nazanin Boniadi, Rosa María Payá Acevedo, Dionisio Gutiérrez, Robert O’Brien, Jane Harman, Finnish Ambassador Leena-Kaisa Mikkola, Claire Lai and Amanda Bennett. TRANSITION — Anthony Reyes has joined Versus Media Group as senior adviser. He previously worked at WME and is an Obama administration alum. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross. |
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