| | | |  | | By Zack Stanton | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | | Happy Friday. Zack Stanton in your inbox this morning. Get in touch. In today’s Playbook … — Economic tumult continues, with China unveiling new 125% tariffs on the U.S. — Dems see an opening by tying President Donald Trump to “chaos.” — SCOTUS intervenes in the case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia. YOUR MORNING LISTEN: For this week’s episode of “Playbook Deep Dive,” POLITICO Capitol Bureau Chief Rachael Bade sat down with Robert Doar, the president of the American Enterprise Institute and one of the leading policy voices on the right. They talked through how Trump is upending longstanding conservative doctrine on trade and economic policy; how AEI aims to exert influence on an administration that’s less interested in winning over the august policy institutions of Washington than it is online influencers and TikTokers; and the emerging conservative leaders are on Capitol Hill giving hope to the center-right. Listen and subscribe: Apple Podcasts … Spotify
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A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange at the opening bell on April 10, 2025, in New York City. | AFP via Getty Images | A PULSE CHECK: President Donald Trump gets his annual physical today at Walter Reed at 11 a.m. But the equivalent exam for America’s near-term economic health doesn’t need to wait for doctors: At this moment, the prognosis is negative, and that’s apparent to everyone except the most blinkered observers. While you were sleeping, the tariff-inspired market drop continued. China announced that starting tomorrow, it will impose a 125% tariff on all U.S. goods. The dollar dropped, while the euro and yen strengthened; gold hit a new all-time high. It’s clear now that the bond market freakout that inspired Trump’s 90-day pause in the tariffs isn’t over. Also clear: All of this presents an enormous political opening for Democrats, who, in an act of jiu-jitsu, may be able to use economic performance — arguably Trump’s greatest political strength and inarguably the key to his 2024 victory — into his most potent liability. Trouble with a capital T: A little more than a day after Trump pared back his tariff plans in response to turmoil in markets for U.S. government debt, the trouble isn’t over, POLITICO’s ace economics correspondent Victoria Guida explained to your Playbook author in a late-night Slack message. “U.S. Treasuries sold off rapidly in trading hours for Asian markets, alongside the dollar, feeding evidence that investors are diversifying away from U.S. assets (and are piling instead into alternatives like the euro).” A crisis of confidence? “Julia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, said some investors are viewing this as a temporary move, as policies remain in flux, while others are reassessing their long-term investment strategy toward the U.S.,” Victoria continued. “Regardless, this is a worrying sign for the Trump administration about confidence in investing in America.” A reminder: That was ostensibly the whole point of these tariffs. When you phrase it like that: Bloomberg’s Anand Krishnamoorthy reports that the “much-vaunted America-first trade — buying up assets that win when the U.S. outperforms the rest of the world — is reversing” on concerns of a tariff-spurred recession in America. Adds POLITICO’s Sudeep Reddy in a helpful explainer: “Whether a recession arrives depends largely on whether Trump backs down even further in the coming weeks.” Inside the White House … Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is now indisputably at the helm of the administration’s trade team, POLITICO’s Megan Messerly and Ari Hawkins report. Peter Navarro has been “relegated to the sidelines.” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has been “recast into the role of ‘bad cop.’” (Elon Musk “has not been a factor.”) Bessent’s challenge … 90 days is not very much time to negotiate a trade deal — let alone 70+ bilateral deals. In a particularly Trumpy flourish, the president said yesterday that he could “make every deal in one day.” But the reality is that trade deals often take years to complete, as POLITICO’s Michael Stratford and Daniel Desrochers report, and “there’s little precedent for completing such sweeping, wide-ranging and accelerated trade negotiations.” Thought bubble: In pausing the tariffs for 90 days, Trump effectively acknowledged that there was some degree of economic and political pain that was simply intolerable for him to bear. That runs counter to the “madman theory” of negotiations he’s eagerly employed. Knowing now that he isn’t prepared to actually blow up the American economy and global markets, if you’re another major country, why give in to his demands at the negotiating table? Hasn’t he ceded some leverage? IT’S STILL THE ECONOMY, STUPID: Amid all of this, Democrats “see a prime opportunity to attack Trump on a key campaign promise they argue he’s failing to deliver — a message likely to be featured prominently in political ads if the economy continues to falter,” POLITICO’s Brakkton Booker and Andrew Howard report this morning in a piece about the “salivating” going on among Dem admakers. A simple plan: All this talk about tariffs can lend itself to political obsessives chattering about “esoteric economic concepts like supply chains and capital markets,” our colleagues write. But that’s not likely to resonate with voters, says veteran Dem media strategist Julian Mulvey: “Keep it simple and keep it tangible and keep it relatable to everyone’s lives.” Like so: “Trump promised he would lower prices and cut taxes for ordinary Americans, but his policies are leading to rising prices and plummeting retirement accounts, and they risk pushing the U.S. into a recession.” That’s the top-performing message in a sweeping new survey by Third Way and GBAO that polled 2,000 registered voters from March 17-23 and tested out 17 different potential messages to measure “how salient they were in moving Independents, non-college voters and those who voted for Trump in 2024.” The polling memo … the slide deck Their top tariff-related message … centered around “Trump’s unpredictable actions on tariffs.” Separately, 62 percent of respondents said the word “chaotic” described Trump. (Note that this poll was before the recent cascade of tariff news.) Expect to hear that word — “chaos” — a lot from Democrats in the days and weeks ahead. Case in point: “[Voters] feel the chaos when they look at their 401(k)s,” Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.) tells the WSJ. “They feel the chaos when they talk to their employer. They feel the chaos when they go grocery shopping.” (The headline of that piece in this morning’s Journal: “Democrats See Tariff Chaos as Political Tool,” in case you missed the shovel-to-the-face subtlety of Auchincloss’ quote.) Worth noting: Centering the issue on Trump’s “chaos” allows Democrats to juke around the inconvenient reality that there are deep disagreements within their own party on tariffs, as many prominent Dem pols are at least tariff-curious — especially those in the industrial Midwest. Also worth noting: This “chaos” talk would seem to be an inevitable outcome of the White House’s press strategy, which focuses on flooding the zone and communicating that an enormous amount of sweeping change is happening all at once. Will the administration adjust that communications approach? Doubtful. Press secretary Karoline Leavitt will brief reporters at 1 p.m. Stay tuned.
| | | | A message from Comcast: Universal Epic Universe, the most technologically advanced theme park Comcast has built in the United States, is creating more American jobs and stimulating economic growth across the nation. Learn more about Comcast's multibillion dollar investment in the U.S. with the upcoming opening of Epic Universe. | | | | COURT IN THE ACT SCOTUS TO THE RESCUE: The Supreme Court is requiring the Trump administration to “facilitate” the return of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the Maryland man who last month was deported and sent to a notorious mega-prison in El Salvador due to what officials conceded was an “administrative error” on the part of the U.S. federal government. More from POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney. What next: The high court’s ruling doesn’t explicitly mention bringing Abrego Garcia back to the U.S., but it leaves in place the bulk of a judicial order that specifically required his “return.” We don’t yet know the timeline for that process. But Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele is slated to visit President Trump at the White House on Monday. Lingering over all of it: The administration’s employment of the infamous Salvadoran prison has echoes of the post-9/11 use of Guantanamo, writes POLITICO’s Ankush Khardori — except now, it’s even more of a “legal black hole with no process, no rights and no recourse.” THE NEW CIVIL RIGHTS FIGHT: Trump is trying to transform the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights by demoting its Democratic leader, Rochelle Garza, in favor of Republican Peter Kirsanow, POLITICO’s Hassan Ali Kanu reports. Garza says Trump’s breaking the law, and she won’t leave her post mid-term unless her colleagues vote for it. COME RETRIBUTION: More Big Law firms are set to kowtow preemptively to expected retaliatory pressure from the Trump administration. Trump said that four or five would each do $125 million of pro bono work for his preferred causes, and NYT’s Ben Protess, Maggie Haberman and Michael Schmidt report that they may be announced as a package, as soon as today. Latham & Watkins, Simpson Thacher, Kirkland & Ellis and A&O Shearman are all close to striking deals with Trump, WSJ’s Emily Glazer, Josh Dawsey and Ryan Barber scooped. Multiple firms have now reached such agreements, opting to protect their business interests from an existential threat, despite intense blowback from the legal community and judicial rulings that Trump’s executive orders were likely unconstitutional. But the law firms that have fought the EOs in court — or supported them — may have a leg up in recruiting law students, POLITICO’s Daniel Barnes reports. Even some 3Ls who already have offers are taking the rare step of reconsidering over concern about the rule of law. SCOTUS WATCH: The second Trump administration has now filed more emergency applications, i.e. the “shadow docket,” to the Supreme Court in less than three months, which is more than the entirety of the George W. Bush and Barack Obama administrations, NYT’s Abbie VanSickle notes. GAVEL TO GAVEL: The House passed a bill to limit judges’ nationwide injunctions, though it’ll be difficult to get through the Senate. More from Reuters
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From 2019-2023, Universal Orlando generated $44 billion in economic impact for the nation. Learn more. | | | | BEST OF THE REST OVERNIGHT: The Senate confirmed Lt. Gen. Dan Caine as chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in a 60-25 vote shortly after 2 a.m. LATER TODAY: Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) is expected to launch a run for Colorado governor as soon as today, Axios’ Andrew Solender, John Frank and Stephen Neukam scooped. GOP’S NEW HEADACHE: It’s not just Texas AG Ken Paxton challenging Sen. John Cornyn: Senate Republicans are “on edge that Trump, if he chooses, could elevate more MAGA-aligned challengers to incumbents in several states, forcing a round of bitterly contested primaries,” report POLITICO’s Jordain Carney, Ally Mutnick and Holly Otterbein. Who could be next? Sens. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Bill Cassidy (R-La.) are among the incumbents facing potential primary threats from MAGA-aligned candidates who are hoping that “Trump will help them fend off intraparty upsets that would complicate their Senate map next year. But they also know a single utterance from the president would be enough to upend their plans. It comes as … Senate Republicans face a major fundraising deficit compared to their Dem counterparts, Axios’ Alex Isenstadt reports. ON WISCONSIN: Wisconsin Dems Chair Ben Wikler announced that he is passing the torch and will step down as party chief over the summer. He told POLITICO’s Elena Schneider he’s considering writing a book, and didn’t rule out a future run for political office. GRANITE STATE: With Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) running for Senate, we’re seeing many candidates interested in succeeding him in the House. WMUR reports that Maura Sullivan, a Marine Corps vet and former official in the Obama administration, is making it official. Meanwhile, Stefany Shaheen (yes, of those Shaheens) is considering a run, too. RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES: How did Speaker Mike Johnson get the fiscal-hawk holdouts on board to pass the Senate’s budget blueprint? He told them they can remove him from atop the party if he doesn’t ultimately get their $1.5 trillion in spending cuts, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill revealed. (They also got reassurances from Trump and Senate Majority Leader John Thune.) But but but: There’s plenty of pain coming as Republicans get to the hard part of the actual reconciliation bill. Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.) is representative of leadership’s troubles going deeper than the Freedom Caucus: As he tells POLITICO’s Katherine Tully-McManus and Benjamin Guggenheim, Smucker simply insists on changing the country’s fiscal trajectory. Semafor’s Burgess Everett and Eleanor Mueller note that four Senate Republicans could oppose the bill for either its debt ceiling increase or its Medicaid cuts. And don’t forget about the state and local tax deduction: Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) said he expects legislators to raise its limit to $30,000, per Bloomberg’s Erik Wasson. ANOTHER HEADACHE FOR JOHNSON: “Tensions arise over Speaker Mike Johnson's efforts to bring Rep. Elise Stefanik back into the fold,” by NBC’s Melanie Zanona, Scott Wong and Ryan Nobles: Johnson “The conundrum for Johnson is that he has to either remove a Republican who currently sits on the high-profile Intelligence Committee, which could cause strife among existing members, or be forced to change House rules to add a member.” IN THE DOGE HOUSE: At a Cabinet meeting yesterday, Elon Musk said the Department of Government Efficiency would save $150 billion in federal spending this year, which would be way lower than his most recently stated pledge of $1 trillion, per the NYT. (And it doesn’t account for all the revenue lost from IRS cuts.) Meanwhile … POLITICO’s Hassan Ali Kanu reports that Trump’s new order for agencies and DOGE to repeal regulations while bypassing public input may depend on a misinterpretation of the Supreme Court’s ruling overturning Chevron deference. Meanwhile, the dismantling of large swathes of the federal government continues apace:
SCHOOL TIES: The Trump administration wants to seek a consent decree to oversee the changes it is demanding that Columbia University implement, WSJ’s Liz Essley Whyte and Douglas Belkin scooped. That “would be a major escalation of how the federal government normally resolves education-related civil-rights issues”; it’s not clear if Columbia would agree. Meanwhile, a federal antisemitism probe seems to be underway at the University of California, POLITICO’s Eric He reports, while congressional Republicans indicated they may probe Ivy League tuition price-fixing, per Bloomberg’s Janet Lorin. CLIMATE FILES: The EPA intends to end data collection about greenhouse gas emissions from several thousand industrial polluters, ProPublica’s Sharon Lerner scooped. THE GOP’S RED LINE: Kathleen Sgamma’s nomination as Bureau of Land Management head has been pulled after conservative activists circulated her criticism of Trump over the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection. More from CBS FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Karrin Taylor Robson raised more than $850,000 for her Arizona gubernatorial run in the first quarter, having entered the race halfway through the quarter. Robson faces a competitive GOP primary against Rep. Andy Biggs, though Trump said in December that he would back her. GOOD LUCK WITH THAT: HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. declared that “by September we will know what has caused the autism epidemic,” per Roll Call. His controversial study will come in the wake of his longtime debunked claims that autism is linked to vaccines. THE WEEKEND AHEAD TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week”: Zolan Kanno-Youngs, Jonathan Karl, Ashley Parker and Tarini Parti. Fox News “Sunday Morning Futures”: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth … Speaker Mike Johnson … Reza Pahlavi … Mark Penn. NBC “Meet the Press”: Peter Navarro … Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) … Ray Dalio. Panel: Kimberly Atkins Stohr, Carlos Curbelo, Jonathan Martin and Kelly O’Donnell. ABC “This Week”: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick … Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) … Stephen A. Smith. Panel: Donna Brazile, Reince Priebus, Rachael Bade and Sarah Isgur. CNN “State of the Union”: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) … National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. CBS “Face the Nation”: Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) … Neel Kashkari … Peter Marks. FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins … Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker … Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.). Panel: Susan Page, Juan Williams and Doug Heye. Sunday special: Ken and Brad McCauley. NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) … Rep. Gabe Amo (D-R.I.). Think tank panel: Cecilia Rouse and Robert Doar. Panel: Dave Weigel, Noah Rothman, Tia Mitchell and David Swerdlick. MSNBC “The Weekend”: Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) … Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold.
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94K jobs created by Universal Orlando just in 2023. Learn more. | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s office birthday party sparked some grumbling among Labor Department employees amid layoffs. Adriano Espaillat, Josh Gottheimer, Nick LaLota, Gregory Meeks, Grace Meng and Ritchie Torres were all on a plane that clipped wings with another on the taxiway at Reagan National. Lester Holt accepted the William Allen White National Citation. PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — Since the House didn’t pass the legislation to restore $1 billion in cuts to D.C. government, the city is now planning to start phased spending freezes and cuts this month, Axios’ Cuneyt Dil scooped. AND THE AWARD GOES TO — The National Magazine Awards gave out their top prize for general excellence to ProPublica, Esquire, Stat and Mother Jones. Other winners included ProPublica’s reporting on the impact of abortion bans, a NYT Magazine feature on a Russian military deserter and three episodes of the “40 Acres and a Lie” podcast. All the honorees FRIDAY LISTEN — Kamala Harris alums Gevin Reynolds and Dave Cavell have launched a new podcast, “Lowlights,” talking to athletes about their experiences of failure in an effort to reach young male listeners. Colin Allred is featured on the first episode. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the Senate Press Secretaries Association’s annual NYC conference: Josh Sorbe, Phoebe Ferraiolo, Debra OConnell, Linsey Davis, Rick Klein, Simone Swink, Jeannie Kedas, Allie Pecorin, Sarah Barth, Tony Dokoupil, Adriana Diaz, Jesse Rodriguez, Maureen McInerney, Sam Aleman, Farhan Haq, Micah Spangler, Kathryn Kross, Rob Wooley, Amy Isbell, Charles Wadelington, Campbell Kaufman, Kirsten West, Sarah Craighill, Danielle Smotkin, Billy Rielly, Ellie Watson, Emily Spain, Jason Kaplan, Jenni LeCompte, Chris Ullman and Ken Mehlman. — SPOTTED at the Consumer Technology Association’s 20th annual Digital Patriots Dinner on Tuesday evening: Reps. Don Beyer (D-Va.) and Bill Foster (D-Ill.), Christine Wilson, Kinsey Fabrizio, Gary Shapiro, Tiffany Moore, Michael Petricone, J. David Grossman, Ed Brzytwa, Deena Ghazarian, Gretchen Littlefield, Jessica Nigro and Steve Downer. — SPOTTED at the 16th annual America Votes State Summit and the Cecile Richards Progressive Leader Awards Ceremony: Daria Dawson, Greg Speed, Sherrod Brown, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Nevada AG Aaron Ford, Lily Adams, Kirk Adams, DNC Chair Ken Martin, Reyna Walters-Morgan, David Hogg, Derrick Johnson, Mini Timmaraju, April Verrett, Kelley Robinson, Jessica Mackler, Lee Saunders, Becky Pringle, Deirdre Schifeling, Maurice Mitchell, Pete Maysmith, Melissa Morales, Rahna Epting, North Carolina Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs, JB Poersch, Mike Smith, Meghan Meehan-Draper, Jessica Knight Henry, Leslie Martes, Ashley Allison, Brian Tyler Cohen and Maine state Sen. Mike Tipping. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Hugh Hewitt is joining Fox News as a contributor, with his first appearance coming on “Special Report” with Bret Baier. — Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott is adding a slate of new hires to his comms office: Tracy Falon King will be deputy director of comms and most recently was director of outreach comms at the DNC; Silas Woods III will be press secretary and comms adviser and most recently was deputy director of press operations for VP Kamala Harris; Jonas Poggi will be press secretary for rapid response and research and is a DNC and Biden White House alum; and Olivia Eggers will be speechwriter and work on strategic comms and most recently was a speechwriter for the Energy Department. MEDIA MOVES — Bloomberg Government is adding Erin Durkin as health policy reporter and naming Lillianna Byington as its new Senate reporter. Durkin previously covered health policy at National Journal. TRANSITIONS — Trump White House alums Justin Clark, Sean Dollman and Nick Trainer have launched the American Made Media Company, a consulting firm that has brought together several companies to work with MAGA Republican candidates, The Daily Caller’s Reagan Reese reports. … Kierra Newton has joined Nareit as director of REITPAC and political outreach. She previously was PAC and mid-Atlantic finance director at the DCCC. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: SKDK’s Mariel Sáez and Rae Robinson Trotman … Alex Phelps … Don Graves … David Wofford … Cogent Strategies’ Missi Tessier … RIAA’s Michele Ballantyne … MSNBC’s Raelyn Johnson … Marcia Hale … Nina Verghese … Marc Ross of Caracal … Aaron Bennett … Nick O’Boyle of Rep. Ron Estes’ (R-Kan.) office … Kate Warren … Amanda Golden … Benjamin Bryant … Purple Strategies’ Jason Bargnes … J.D. Harrison … Linda Lipsen of the American Association of Justice … Julie Tarallo McAlister … Beth Osborne … former Reps. Mark Kennedy (R-Minn.) and Kevin Brady (R-Texas) (7-0) … Holly Geffs … Janae Washington … Meghan McCann … Calla Wickenhauser … Chris Malagisi of Hillsdale College … Natalie Armijo of T-Mobile … Citi’s Ed Skyler … Emily Kassner-Marks of Rep. Robert Garcia’s (D-Calif.) office Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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