Good Monday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, no longer stocking up on imported tea and just straight-up buying gold bullion. (Except yeah, that’s not working either.)
BELLY-SLIDING INTO HISTORY: Just in case you spent Sunday under a rock — or sobbing into your 401(k) chart — Washington is now home to the greatest goalscorer in NHL history. Alex Ovechkinhit the magic 895 yesterday and fans across the city went wild. POLITICO’s own Capitals super-fan Callie Tansill-Suddath was at the Penn Quarter Sports Tavern and describes an electric atmosphere where supporters wept and random passers-by stood with eyes glued to the screens. “I still don’t know what the final score was,” she texted Playbook last night.
Spotted: FBI chief Kash Patel celebrating inside the UBS Arena in New York, alongside now-former record-holder Wayne Gretsky. (Patel was present Friday night too when Ovi equalled the record ... I guess every job has its perks.)
Next up — Shotime in the White House: Baseball’s World Series champs the LA Dodgers are playing at Nationals Park this evening, and ahead of the game have a date with President Donald Trump (and selected media outlets) at the White House at 11 a.m. So does Shohei Ohtani have a hot take on Japan’s shiny new 24 percent tariff? We should find out soon enough.
In today’s Playbook …
— Donald Trump’s market meltdown continues — how long can this last?
—Bibi Netanyahu at the White House to beg for a better deal.
— Mike Johnson has a massive budget-sized problem to solve.
DRIVING THE DAY
President Donald Trump reads The NY Post as he arrives at Trump National Golf Club, Saturday, April 5, 2025, in Jupiter, Fla. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon) | AP
HOW LOW CAN IT GO? President Donald Trump’s astonishing, tariff-induced market meltdown is still only headed in one direction — and fears are growing about how big this crash could become. Asian stock markets suffered further spectacular losses overnight, in some cases so large they triggered built-in “circuit-breakers” which temporarily halt trading to prevent a wider collapse. The S&P Futures markets also tumbled further yesterday, giving a pretty clear indication of what traders believe is coming when the New York Stock Exchange reopens at 9.30 a.m. It’s hard to think of any example in modern U.S. history when the actions of a president have directly triggered something like this.
By the numbers — Asian horror show: Japan’s benchmark Topix index fell over 9 percent in the first 30 minutes of trading this morning … Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index plunged 8.7 percent in early trading … A circuit-breaker was activated on South Korea’s main board after the Kospi benchmark dropped more than 5 percent …Singapore’s benchmark Straits Times index fell 8.5 percent in the first 20 minutes of trading … Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 6.1 percent … and on it goes. (You can follow all of this and more on the FT’s liveblog of doom.)
All eyes on America: No one really knows how bad (or good!) things might get today. But it’s never a great sign when an NYSE veteran like Jay Woods is posting the circuit-breaker numbers that would halt trading in New York. The Economist’s Wall Street Editor Mike Bird noted last night: “If the S&P 500 closes tomorrow where futures are right now, it will be the biggest three-day selloff in 38 years, a faster drop than any during either the global financial crisis in 2008 or the Covid-19 panic in March 2020.” And to repeat: This one has been actively caused by the president.
And there’s more: Early this morning, Elon Musktweeted out a video of Milton Friedman waxing poetic about the beauty of international trade, a not-so-subtle suggestion of how he feels about these tariffs.
And even more: Even Trump-loving billionaire investor Bill Ackman has lost the faith, warning of a “self-induced, economic nuclear winter” and calling for a “90-day timeout.”
And if you don’t care about the stock market: Goldman Sachs last night raised its 12-month U.S. recession probability score to 45 percent … and that’s a figure which assumes (as many businesses still believe) that not all Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs will actually come into force. As a kicker, the bank adds that if Trump’s next set of tariffs do take effect on Wednesday as planned, “we expect to change our forecast to a recession.” Yikes. Full note here, via WaPo’s Heather Long.
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So is Trump panicking? As if. Here he is boasting about winning a golf tournament at his luxury resort in Florida this weekend.
The question everyone’s asking:Isthere a level of market pain that would make Trump pause the tariff rollout? “I think your question is so stupid,” Trump told a reporter on Air Force One who asked that last night. “I don’t want anything to go down, but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.” Watch (and maybe bookmark) the clip.
Hmmm: Your Playbook author has only ever seen one example up close of a leader taking bold and purposeful economic action which instantly crashed the national economy. And she was outlasted in her job by a head of lettuce. Obviously, Trump is going nowhere — but U.K Prime Minister Liz Truss’ experience is illustrative of how quickly (and irreversibly) a politician’s stock can fall if radical policy moves end up hitting voters hard in the pocket.
Reminder: Trump still has an easy way out of this: Cut some swift deals with trading partners, claim a win, pause the tariffs and watch the markets rebound in relief. And then insist that was the plan all along — The Art of the Deal, if you like. But will he do it? There’s certainly no hint of that from the president, who speaks only of the need to correct decades of supposed economic injustice, and of the vast sums of cash he believes his tariffs will bring in. His answer last night regarding negotiating with partners doesn’t bode well for the free-traders in his team.
And inside the White House … there are signs of a growing split between influential voices. On CBS yesterday, we saw tariff pitbull Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick insisting the tariffs will bring millions of manufacturing jobs to America… Influential White house aide Stephen Miller is all over X talking about American jobs and trade deficits (and getting retweets from VP JD Vance) … But Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett was on Fox boasting that more than 50 countries are keen to negotiate … Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins was on CNN talking about negotiations, too … And Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has dropped plenty of hints in this direction. So which is it? Are we negotiating here, or are we not?
Very much hoping we are … is Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, who glides into the White House this afternoon to discuss Israel’s higher-than-expected 17 percent tariff. He’ll be the first foreign leader to get the chance to have it out with Trump in person, and the rest of the world will be watching closely to see if he has any success. There should be Trump/Bibi press moments at 1 p.m. and 2 p.m. as well as a full joint presser at 2:30 p.m. They are exected to be Trump’s main public-facing events today.
Not just trade: Trump and Bibi will of course also discuss the war in Gaza and the threat from Iran — two colossal issues currently being drowned out by the tariff chaos. The last time these two stood together in the West Wing, Trump unveiled his plan to turn Gaza into a riviera-style luxury resort, so goodness only knows how today’s event will pan out.
What’s coming next: Barring any last-minute reversal, Trump’s reciprocal tariffs kick in Wednesday … China’s retaliatory tariffs kick in Thursday … and then it’s all eyes on whether Trump presses ahead with yet more sector-specific measures. Pharmaceuticals is the industry many believe will be next in the firing line. But everything feels very fluid — specifically if the markets keep tumbling.
Meanwhile in Europe: Never knowingly fast out of the gate, EU leaders are still busy responding to the last set of tariffs — the 25 percent tax on metal imports that Trump introduced last month. The European Commision is expected to unveil a list later today of U.S. products which might be clobbered, Reuters reports. There are fears within the hospitality industry — and among booze-loving morning newsletter-writers — that the floated 50 percent tariff on bourbon could trigger an alcohol-specific tariff war.
And back here in D.C. … GOP members of Congress are returning from a weekend in their districts, which is always a dangerous moment if the administration is doing something unpopular or unsettling. Will any Republican senators add their voices to the growing number pushing for Congress to reassert its constitutional authority over the power of the purse? We shall see.
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COURT IN THE ACT
JUSTICE SHOWDOWN: Federal judge Paula Xinis has set a deadline of 11:59 p.m. tonight for the Trump administration to bring Kilmar Abrego Garcia, whom the U.S. admitted to having wrongly deported, back from a Salvadoran mega-prison. Xinis again castigated the “grievous error” yesterday, saying the Trump administration hadn’t presented evidence Abrego Garcia was an MS-13 gang member and had placed him at a safety risk that “shocks the conscience” by erroneously deporting him to El Salvador. But the administration isn’t backing off. Stephen Miller declared that Abrego Garcia “was a member of a designated foreign terrorist organization, ineligible for any form of relief under law.”
Today’s big question: Will an appeals court intervene? And if not, will the government comply with Xinis’ order … or flout it?
And there’s more: That’s just one of several high-profile cases due to erupt this week that would normally dominate the news cycle, were it not for the ongoing economic mayhem, POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney texts Playbook to say. “The most extreme assertions of Trump’s immigration powers are going to get crucial court hearings this week that could decide the fate of hundreds of thousands of immigrants, refugees and their families,” he writes.
On El Salvador … Federal judge James Boasberg has a big case hearing tomorrow on whether to maintain his ban on further deportations under the 1798 Alien Enemies Act. … And we’re also expecting the all-important Supreme Court ruling on that any day now. … There’s also a broader case coming to court on the use of overseas jails. … And Boasberg is likely to decide this week whether to hold administration officials in contempt for defying his ruling on the El Salvador flights. (WSJ’s Jan Wolfe and Ryan Barber have a new profile out on the 6’6” judge, if you’re so inclined.)
And by the way: Although the administration still insists the hundreds of Venezuelans it deported to El Salvador were gang members, CBS’ Cecilia Vega found internal government files which show the “overwhelming majority have no apparent criminal convictions or even criminal charges.” Watch the extraordinary segment from last night’s “60 Minutes” here.
And there’s more: There will be big hearings this week on the administration’s block on new refugees, and the canceling of the protected status afforded to certain foreign migrants … And a judge in Vermont will today hear the deportation case of Rumeysa Ozturk, a Tufts University grad student plucked off the street by ICE in Massachusetts. That’ll be the first of several hearings this week involving students the Trump administration is trying to deport.
The latest: Five Harvard students and recent graduates had their visas pulled, The Harvard Crimson’s Samuel Church and Cam Srivastava report. POLITICO’s Myah Ward and Irie Sentner reveal the administration’s effort to remove foreign students who took part in pro-Palestinian protests “closely mirrors” the Heritage Foundation’s “Project Esther” blueprint, which was released last fall. Republicans have already advanced 27 of its 47 proposals.
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MEANWHILE IN CONGRESS
RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES: The House returns today with a just week left to OK the Senate budget blueprint before the Passover/Easter recess — and approval is far from assured, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill and Benjamin Guggenheim report. Speaker Mike Johnson is eyeing a vote as soon as Wednesday on the Senate framework (without changes), which would unlock the party’s massive reconciliation bill. House leaders sought to rally their conference around the plan on a call yesterday.
But but but: Hard-right fiscal hawks have lambasted the Senate’s much smaller spending cuts, and one predicted to our colleagues that it “will easily fail on the House floor.” It’s anybody’s guess how this will play out — and all eyes, as always, are on Trump.
The fallout: If the legislation ultimately forces Medicaid cuts, Missouri, Oklahoma and South Dakota would be especially squeezed because Medicaid expansion is in their state constitutions, NYT’s Sarah Kliff and Margot Sanger-Katz note. That could have huge ramifications for their state budgets.
One fewer headache for Johnson: The speaker and Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) have reached an agreement in their proxy voting standoff, per the Washington Examiner. Instead of green-lighting proxy voting for new parents, which Johnson insisted was unconstitutional, the House will make “vote pairing” more official for Republicans. Under that system, members would coordinate to cancel out a new parent’s absence by having a lawmaker voting the opposite way abstain. If that deal holds, it could unstick House business that got gummed up last week. Indeed, the House Rules Committee will try again to tee up the SAVE Act and the overturning of CFPB rules at 4 p.m.
The other chamber: Senators will return for a procedural vote at 5:30 p.m. on Elbridge Colby’s nomination as undersecretary of Defense for policy, which turned into an intra-GOP ideological tussle over foreign policy.
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BEST OF THE REST
ON THE TRAIL: As Democrats start to get more energized for the midterms, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) raised a record $11 million in the first quarter for his reelection, POLITICO’s Andrew Howard scoops this morning. … Virginia Dems are launching a seven-figure ad campaign for the fall’s state legislative races, focused (Wisconsin-style) on Elon Musk, POLITICO’s Liz Crampton scoops. … And Democrat Christina Hines is jumping into the race to challenge Rep. John James (R-Mich.), per POLITICO’s Nick Wu.
On the flip side: Republican state Sen. Jon Bramnick, a moderate who has criticized Trump, is trying to gain traction in the New Jersey gubernatorial primary by tacking harder to the right than anyone on immigration, POLITICO’s Matt Friedman reports. ... And in always-interesting Pennsylvania, Treasurer Stacy Garrity is once again the talk of Republican circles as a potential 2026 challenger to Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro after she comfortably bested Rep. Dan Meuser and state Sen. Doug Mastriano in a gubernatorial straw poll of grassroots conservative leaders at the weekend’s Pennsylvania Leadership Conference.
Lee’s summit: Former Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) is struggling to shake off Loren Taylor in next week’s special election for Oakland mayor, POLITICO’s Jeremy White reports. Though Lee entered as the heavyweight progressive frontrunner, Taylor’s moderate outsider messaging has helped him outraise her, and his internal polling shows a tight contest.
NOTABLE QUOTABLE: “The most effective way to prevent the spread of measles is the MMR vaccine,” HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.said on X yesterday, a striking affirmation of support as he went to Texas for the funeral of the second unvaccinated child to die, per CNN. That begins a multi-day swing for Kennedy through Utah, Arizona and New Mexico this week.
IN THE DOGE HOUSE: The IRS has launched its new round of mass layoffs, all but ending its civil rights office as the first step on the path to axing a quarter of the agency, ABC’s Benjamin Siegel reports. Cuts are also reportedly coming to DHS this week.
HALF-BAKED: Interior Secretary Doug Burgum’s office has ordered political appointees to bake him fresh chocolate chip cookies in the department’s industrial ovens — and then to remake them if they’re not up to snuff, The Atlantic’s Michael Scherer and Ashley Parker report. They reckon concerns about “Doug the Diva” have been raised with top White House officials. But multiple Interior officials pushed back and said the claims were false.
THE TRANSFORMATION OF LEE ZELDIN: “From pro-climate Republican to ‘one of the Trump disruptors,’” by POLITICO’s Hannah Northey, Emily Ngo, Josh Siegel and Miranda Willson: “Trump’s wild-card pick to lead the Environmental Protection Agency has emerged as one of the most devoted public champions for his efforts to demolish the Biden agenda — and MAGA world is taking notice. … Now the question is what doors a role in Trump’s Cabinet might be opening — or closing — for Zeldin. … [O]thers who have known Zeldin wonder what happened to the middle-of-the-road lawmaker they once knew.”
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TALK OF THE TOWN
PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — “Trump Will Get His Showy (And Likely Expensive) Military Parade in D.C.,” by the Washington City Paper’s Tom Sherwood: “According to a D.C. source with knowledge of the plan that’s still being developed, Trump has commandeered Saturday, June 14 — the 250th anniversary of the U.S. Army and, as it happens, Trump’s 79th birthday — for his military parade. It would stretch almost four miles from the Pentagon in Arlington to the White House, according to the source, who stressed that local officials are just learning of it.”
OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a brunch at the British Embassy yesterday in support of the Shakespeare Theatre Company, hosted by the STC’s artistic director Simon Godwin and British Ambassador Peter Mandelson:Will Lewis, Don Graham, Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-Maine), Valerie Amos, Heather Florance, Sarah Eastright, Kevin Chaffee, Lindsey Halligan, Darren Thomas, Stephen Breyer, Jane Harman, Shane Harris, Sarakshi Rai, Andrea Mitchell, Adrienne Arsht, and Ed Luce and Niamh King.
Guests at the Embassy dined on eggs benedict, smoked salmon bagels, and prawn and lobster towers. Mandelson told the assembled crowd he himself was once a Shakesperian actor. “I played the second soldier in ‘Twelfth Night,’” he said. “I had one line. And I delivered it brilliantly!” For his part, Godwin quoted the final lines of ‘King Lear.’ “The weight of this sad time we must obey. Speak what we feel, not what we ought to say.” The STC’s annual gala is this evening.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Matt Hayward is joining Groundwork Collaborative as director of government affairs and senior strategist. He most recently was deputy director at the National Labor Relations Board’s Office of Congressional and Public Affairs, and is a Congressional Progressive Caucus Center and Jan Schakowsky alum.
— Nolan Dunagan is joining Politicoin as SVP of business development. He most recently was director of client strategy at Opn Sesame, and is a Trump 2020 alum.
TRANSITIONS — Scott Rausch is now deputy director of federal government affairs for Americans for Prosperity. He previously was a policy adviser for Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.). … Zack Lissau is now press secretary for Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.). He previously was press secretary for Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.). … Max Levy is launching Max Levy Strategies, a digital and public affairs consulting practice. He most recently was deputy director of public affairs at Democracy Forward, and is a Stacey Abrams and Biden EPA alum. …
… Damon Sidur is now comms director for Idaho AG Raúl Labrador. He previously was comms director for Rep. Michael Cloud (R-Texas). … Reed Elman is now SVP of campaigns at HGCreative. He previously was campaign manager for Eileen Filler-Corn’s Virginia congressional campaign, and is a DCCC alum. … Red Horse Strategies is adding Michelle Ngwafon as VP, Aria Snedegar as campaigns associate and Charlotte Cohen as digital associate. Ngwafon previously was DMV director at the DNC. Snedegar most recently was an account executive at the Pivot Group. Cohen most recently was a social media associate for Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D-Ohio) reelect.
ENGAGED — Brian Janovitz, an equity partner at DLA Piper and a USTR and NSC alum, proposed to Erica Arbetter, policy marketing manager at Google, on Friday at Pujol in Mexico City. Pic
— Paige Rusher, senior director at Seven Letter, and Dave Clarke, a law student at American University, got engaged March 14 during a weekend trip to Montreal. They met working in Sen. Richard Burr’s (R-N.C.) office in 2019. Pic … Another pic
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer … Reps. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) Troy Nehls (R-Texas) and Yassamin Ansari (D-Ariz.) … CNN’s Kaitlan Collins and Brad Parks … Cliff Hackel … POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman and Fernando Rodas … Cavalry’s Josh Holmes … Darren Samuelsohn … Meghan Green … Forward Majority’s Leslie Martes … Michael Meehan … former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels … Mike Abboud … HuffPost’s Paige Lavender … Maggie Severns … Giffords’ Brandi Porter … Michael Ciamarra of Southwest Airlines … Raymond Rodriguez of Rep. Mike Levin’s (D-Calif.) office … Richard Reyes-Gavilan … Tom Snedeker of the Herald Group ... Jessica Chasmar ... Eugene Kiely … Valerie Nelson … former Rep. Robert Brady (D-Pa.) (8-0) … Dana Gray ... Fabiola Rodriguez-Ciampoli … Mother Jones’ Jeremy Schulman … Rene Redwood … FWD.us’ Todd Schulte … Alan Hoffman … Bill McQuillen of FTI Consulting … Sara Croom … Bridgestone’s Tom Lehner … former California Gov. Jerry Brown … Noah Gray … Katie Bailey
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