| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | | Good Tuesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard. It’s April Fool’s Day. Let’s get on with the real news. In today’s Playbook … — The first major electoral tests of Trump 2.0, and JMart reports on the Elon Musk factor. — It’s Liberation Day eve! And the president has decisions to make. — But it’s Howard Lutnick in the firing line if it all goes wrong … We have the juice.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
President Donald Trump listens to a question from a reporter before signing an executive order in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, Monday, March 31, 2025. | Pool photo via AP | NEVER MIND THE BALLOTS: Millions of voters can head to the polls today to cast the first official verdict on Donald Trump’s second term as president. But this being April in an off-year, today's elections will likely be decidedly low-turnout affairs — even as their outcomes will take on outsize importance in the national conversation. Voters across the swing state of Wisconsin and in two deep-red Florida congressional districts will cast their votes in elections which should provide the first meaningful gauge of the public mood since Trump’s inauguration. Forget all the noise of the past 72 days — today, we’ll see some real democracy in action. The timing: Across Florida's 1st and 6th congressional districts, voters will decide who will replace departed GOP Reps. Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz, respectively. Polls close at 7 p.m. ET in the 6th district and at 8 p.m. ET in the 1st district (it being the western edge of the panhandle, it’s in the Central time zone), with results from each expected soon after. And in Wisconsin, voters will pick a new Supreme Court judge, tipping the court’s balance either liberal or conservative. Polls there will close at 9 p.m. ET, with results expected in the early hours of Wednesday morning. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Let’s start in Florida … Where the great Jonathan Martin has been down at Daytona Beach (it’s a hard life), surveying the landscape for POLITICO. And the news out of Florida’s 6th district — the seat Waltz resigned to become Trump’s national security adviser — is troubling for the White House. Even Republicans admit their candidate, Randy Fine, is down to a single-digit lead in a district Trump won by 30 points in November. While few Dems believe they could actually flip the seat, they’re hoping to get awfully close. These votes matter: In the House, the margins are so narrow that Republicans simply cannot afford an upset. You only need look at Trump’s decision to pull Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-N.Y.) nomination for U.N. ambassador last week as evidence of the fear now stalking the GOP. But even narrow wins for Republicans today in what should be two comfortable districts will send shockwaves through a party where some 20-30 representatives could face potentially competitive reelection bids next year if it’s a wave election. Elon on my mind: JMart has no doubt as to the GOP’s problem, both in Florida and across the country: His name is Elon Musk. "Musk has turbocharged the backlash to Trump,” he writes, “and accelerated the revival of demoralized Democrats and independents appalled by the billionaire’s cavalier attempt to slash the federal government.” In short: The world’s richest man polls appallingly, and his comments about benefits like Social Security have given Dems an easy message to sell. Check out these quotes: Such is the concern Musk is causing among GOP representatives in competitive seats that some are praying for an early reckoning, JMart reports. An ”April 1st massacre” would be “a beautiful thing,” one GOP lawmaker tells him, as it might help shuffle Musk toward the exit door well ahead of the midterms. “Elon’s work needs to wrap up, and he needs to exit stage left,” another GOP lawmaker agrees. It’s extraordinary stuff. But but but: There’s more going on in Waltz’s former district than anger at the world’s richest man. Plenty of fingers are already being pointed at Fine, an abrasive state senator who is at loggerheads with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and has been dramatically outraised by his Democratic opponent, Orlando-area schoolteacher Josh Weil. Many local GOP activists are unimpressed with Fine and sitting on their hands, one well-connected Florida Republican tells Playbook, opening the door for angry Dems to make this district competitive. Another Fine mess: Even Fine accepts that his opponents are more energized than his own supporters. “Democrats are angry, and Republicans are happy,” he tells the Washington Examiner. “Mad is a greater incentive to vote than happy.” Spoiler: NYT’s Shane Goldmacher notes that despite Weil’s impressive fundraising haul, “he has actually been outspent on the airwaves nearly four-to-one, thanks to support for Mr. Fine from super PACs.” And while low turnout in special elections means upsets are always possible, the sheer number of registered Republican voters in the Florida seat ought to be enough to get Fine over the line. But it’s nail-biting stuff. Less exciting is … the 1st district — Gaetz’s former seat, and the safest Republican stronghold in Florida — which literally everyone agrees will deliver a comfortable win for Republican candidate Jimmy Patronis. Even so, the margin of victory is worth watching. MEANWHILE IN WISCONSIN: The hardest-fought race of all tonight — and maybe the most difficult to predict — is the supreme court race in Wisconsin. Liberals have held a 4-3 majority on the state’s top court since 2023, and conservatives have thrown everything at winning back control. Musk has focused his efforts here and arrived in Green Bay on Sunday night, donning a “cheesehead” hat and handing out million-dollar cheques. Will it be enough? Reminder: Officially, these supreme court elections are nonpartisan, but unofficially, nobody thinks like that. The candidates are Susan Crawford, a Dane County judge endorsed by the Wisconsin Democratic Party, and Brad Schimel, a Waukesha County judge who previously served as the state’s attorney general, a position he ran for as a Republican. This highly political battle is evidenced by the fact that the campaign is on pace to cost more than $100 million when the dust settles. Place your bets: Split Ticket reckons Crawford is the slight favorite to win — and once again, it’s the suggestion that Dems are more energised which is fuelling the trend. “The early vote data shows that even relative to 2024, Democrats are significantly more likely to show up than Republicans are — and in a state that Donald Trump won by less than a percentage point in 2024, this makes the GOP’s job much harder,” Lakshya Jain and Giacomo Pensa write.
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Learn more. | | | | TRADING PLACES ONE DAY TO GO: President Trump will today receive a flurry of high-level reports on U.S. trade policy as he finalizes plans for tomorrow’s “Liberation Day” tariff blitz. On his first day in office, the president demanded a trio of detailed reports on reshaping national tariff policy from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, as my colleague Doug Palmer reports for POLITICO Pro subscribers. Their findings are due today and, in theory at least, will inform Trump’s decision-making ahead of the big announcement. The world is holding its breath. First big question: Will he even read them? The WSJ reports Trump has already made his mind up about tomorrow’s tariff plan, but is keeping his cards close to his chest for now. We may learn more at press secretary Karoline Leavitt’s 12 p.m. briefing. SCOOP — HOWARD’S END?: POLITICO’s White House Bureau Chief Dasha Burns writes in with new reporting on Lutnick’s role as one of the biggest internal proponents of Liberation Day. “The potential economic fallout from tomorrow’s tariffs may well find Lutnick himself liberated from his role in the administration,” Dasha writes, “according to multiple people close to the White House.” Yikes. Blame game: “Trump world is ready to play the blame game should things go poorly,” Dasha reports, amid nerves about how tomorrow plays out. “And all the fingers will be pointing at Lutnick, two people close to the administration say. ‘I think people would take special pleasure in blaming him,’ one of them said.” Hype man: “Weeks ago, POLITICO reported that among White House staff and allies, patience with Lutnick was wearing thin,” Dasha writes. “Now, it’s even more frayed as the economic stakes get higher. Lutnick spends a lot of time in the Oval Office, hyping the president on his tariff strategy and ‘giving him bad advice — pushing more aggressive tariffs,’ says one person familiar with the situation. “By contrast, Bessent remains a ‘measured voice’ pushing for targeted tariffs. And while tariff-loving trade adviser Peter Navarro is a known quantity, Lutnick is ‘a new voice at the table pushing crazy shit,’ the person says. ‘I don’t know anyone that isn’t pissed off at him.’” Right of reply: “Every member of the Trump administration is aligned on finally leveling the playing field for American industries and workers,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai told POLITICO when asked for comment. “President Trump has assembled the best and brightest trade team in modern American history to reignite American Greatness, and they are hard at work following the same playbook — President Trump’s playbook — to deliver for the American people.” Three things to watch while we wait for Liberation Day: 1. Will jitters about U.S. tariffs continue to drag down global stock markets? After initially dropping yesterday, most had recovered a little ground by the end of yesterday, but two of the three major U.S. markets still signed-off the year’s first quarter as the worst they’ve experienced since late 2022, per NBC. 2. How many GOP senators will break with Trump? Sen. Tim Kaine’s (D-Va.) resolution to stop Trump’s Canada tariffs should come up for a vote this afternoon, and is likely to attract the support of at least three Republicans, POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky, Jordain Carney and Meredith Lee Hill report. (Those three: Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Thom Tillis of North Carolina.) Four rebels would be enough to win the day for the Dems — although the measure will likely die in the House, making this a symbolic vote. Kaine and co. have a presser at 11:45 a.m. 3. Perhaps most crucially, what last-minute scrambling could yet play out ahead of tomorrow’s Rose Garden announcement? Major carmakers are still trying to secure exemptions for some vehicle parts, arguing that the alternative would actually set back Trump’s goal of more domestic auto production, Bloomberg’s Keith Naughton and colleagues scooped. And congressional Republicans are still trying to save specific agricultural goods, NBC’s Sahil Kapur, Melanie Zanona and Zoë Richards report. Good luck!
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| | | | NEW THIS MORNING: The Coalition for an Affordable and Secure Economy for America is launching a six-figure digital ad campaign in the Beltway to sound alarms about Trump’s tariffs, warning that they will raise prices and could trigger a recession. Watch the 30-second spot MEANWHILE ON THE HILL RAISING CAINE: Trump’s little-known pick for the U.S. military’s top job steps out of the shadows this morning to face a Senate confirmation hearing. Lt. Gen. Dan Caine is before the Senate Armed Services Committee at 9:30 a.m., having been plucked from relative obscurity last month to replace Gen. C.Q. Brown as chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. WaPo’s Dan Lamothe has a helpful primer. Reconcilable differences: It’s a crucial day too for the Republicans’ congressional agenda, with GOP leadership still hoping to proceed with a reconciliation plan ahead of the Easter recess. All eyes will be on Speaker Mike Johnson at a 10 a.m. presser following a House GOP Conference meeting, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune after his own conference lunch at 12:30 p.m. The GOP leaders’ sneaky strategy of setting different floors for spending cuts in each chamber could yet yield a hardliner rebellion, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill and Benjamin Guggenheim report. THE LOYAL OPPOSITION: Democrats know their base wants to see them fight harder, and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) has grabbed the mantle by delivering an all-night marathon floor speech to blast GOP policies. More from Semafor … Other senior Democrats will focus today on protecting entitlements — Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has a presser on Social Security at 11 a.m., and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is doing the same at 3 p.m. Those moves come as Senate Finance votes on Frank Bisignano as Social Security Administration commissioner at 10 a.m. NEW THIS MORNING: The Children’s Hospital Association is launching a six-figure digital ad campaign in the Beltway urging Congress not to cut Medicaid, emphasizing that it covers half the nation’s children. TV ads will follow later this month. See more AND THERE’S MORE: The House will vote on overturning CFPB rules in the afternoon. … The fight between House GOP leaders and Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) over proxy voting for new parents will come to a head at House Rules at 8 a.m., per The Hill. She left the Freedom Caucus yesterday. … A House Judiciary subcommittee will hold a hearing on “judicial overreach” with Newt Gingrich at 10 a.m., as Senate Judiciary Chair Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) introduced a bill to limit nationwide injunctions. … And if that’s not enough, Oliver Stone will talk JFK files before House Oversight at 2 p.m. COMING ATTRACTIONS: Tomorrow at 8 a.m., congressional leaders and health experts will explore the sweeping changes transforming America's health care landscape under the current administration at POLITICO’s Health Care Summit. Key speakers include Calley Means, special government employee for HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.; Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.); Reps. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.), Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.), Diana Harshbarger (R-Tenn.), Greg Murphy (R-N.C.), Ami Bera (D-Calif.) and Diana DeGette (D-Colo.), and more. More details about the event.
| | | | Policy moves fast—stay ahead with POLITICO’s Policy Intelligence Assistant. Effortlessly search POLITICO's archive of 1M+ news articles, analysis documents, and legislative text. Track legislation, showcase your impact, and generate custom reports in seconds. Designed for POLITICO Pro subscribers, this tool helps you make faster, smarter decisions. Start exploring now. | | | | | BEST OF THE REST VENEZUELA FAILURE: Pressure is increasing on the Trump administration over the growing litany of issues related to the deportation of Venezuelan migrants to El Salvador without due process. Last night, the administration admitted for the first time that one of the people in the initial group shipped to the infamous El Salvadoran mega-prison had been sent by mistake, The Atlantic’s Nick Miroff scooped. Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a Maryland father originally from El Salvador, had protected legal status, and was deported despite officials knowing that a judge had protected him from that fate. Extraordinarily, the Trump administration now claims it has no way to get him back. The Fox News headline just an hour prior to the story breaking: “DHS Secretary Kristi Noem confident her agency is only removing ‘criminals’ from the US” And there’s more: Conservative commentators are continuing to raise concerns about the deportation of a gay Venezuelan makeup artist lumped in with other supposed gang members because of his tattoos. Podcast supremo Joe Rogan kicked off about the case yesterday, the Daily Beast reports. “This is kind of crazy,” Rogan said. “Is there any plan in place to alert the authorities that they’ve made a horrible mistake and correct it? … I don’t know if it’s been brought to their attention.” Bad news, Joe: It has been brought to their attention. And this was the response. But but but: The White House is now exploring other ways to carry out these deportations without resorting to the 1798 Alien Enemies Act — and yesterday, sent a fourth plane to El Salvador referencing different legislation. The White House gave Fox News’ Bill Melugin all the names and criminal histories up front, and cited the “traditional legal authority to enforce immigration laws against illegal entry,” per the NYT. And they “had all received deportation orders, meaning they had received at least some chance to plead their cases,” the WSJ notes. The students: ICE is going after more foreign students — most recently, one at Minnesota State, per the Star Tribune. … The SEIU is holding rallies today in 10 cities calling for the release of Tufts student Rumeysa Ozturk, a union member. … The administration wouldn’t provide CNN’s Jake Tapper specific details about what many other detained students did wrong — and the case of one Columbia student who fled to Canada continues to raise questions about mistaken targeting. SCHOOL DAZE: Having largely bent Columbia to its will over $400 million in federal funding, the Trump administration is stepping up its crackdown on elite schools by scrutinizing $9 billion in grants and contracts to Harvard, The Free Press’ Gabe Kaminsky scooped.
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| | | | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) raised $1.1 million in the first quarter of the year, as she eyes an announcement coming soon about whether she’ll run for Michigan’s open Senate seat. TOP-ED: “Echoes of Gore’s Florida recount in Griffin’s attempt to toss ballots,” by Benjamin Ginsberg in The Carolina Journal CLEMENCY CORNER: Trump yesterday commuted the fraud sentence of Jason Galanis, another Hunter Biden associate who turned on the Bidens, and pardoned Jan. 6 convict Thomas Caldwell, whose sentence the president already commuted. PLAYBOOK FIRST LOOK — KNOWING SUSIE WILES: White House chief of staff Susie Wiles has a reputation as Trump’s “Ice Maiden”, the ultimate behind-the-scenes pro. But journalists Jonathan Allen and Amie Parnes reveal a different side in their new book, “Fight: Inside the Wildest Battle for the White House,” ($32) out today from HarperCollins. The authors write about a day in May 2024, in the middle of Trump’s trial in New York stemming from business fraud and related hush money payments to Stormy Daniels. As Wiles waited in a conference room in Trump Tower with two of the campaign's top comms aides, Danielle Alvarez and Karoline Leavitt, she rose to make a cup of coffee and broke from her usual stoicism. “‘I just wish people understood what this man goes through,’ Wiles said, her eyes watering.” Allen and Parnes write. “‘You've been in court now. How awful is it — what they’re doing to him?’ … .’ Choking up, Wiles could barely get out her next words. ‘I just worry that if they can't get him this way,’ she said, ‘they'll try to kill him.’”
| | | | California's tech industry is shaping national politics like never before. We’re launching California Decoded to unpack how the state is defining tech policy and politics within its borders and beyond. Sign up now to get it free for a limited time. | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | Lee Zeldin said he’ll close the EPA’s new one-room museum. JD Vance headlined an RNC fundraiser in NYC last night. PLAYBOOK FOOD SECTION — “The Quest to Replace the Worst Food in Congress,” by NOTUS’ Oriana González: “The food on the House side is thought to be ‘terrible.’ House members and staff are looking to address it.” FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Gregg Jarrett, the prominent Fox News legal analyst, says Simon and Schuster stole his book idea and gave it to Breitbart editor-in-chief Alex Marlow, our Daniel Lippman writes in. In a lawsuit filed Friday, Jarrett accused the publishing giant of first offering a “paltry” advance in response to his proposal of a book about “lawfare” against Donald Trump — and when he declined the offer, signing Marlow to write it instead. Marlow’s book, “Breaking the Law,” is due out in June. The lawsuit also takes aim at Jarrett’s former literary agent, David Vigliano, who also reps Marlow. “This case is about betrayal at the highest levels of publishing — where those entrusted to champion Mr. Jarrett’s work instead allegedly conspired to exploit his ideas, misappropriate his opportunity and enrich themselves at his expense,” Jarrett lawyer William A. Brewer III, a partner at Brewer, Attorneys & Counselors, said in a statement to Playbook. Neither Simon and Schuster nor Vigliano responded to requests for comment. — Michael Considine is now a senior adviser in FGS Global’s global public affairs practice. He previously was deputy assistant secretary of Energy for foreign investment and national security. — Darby McQueen is now legislative director for Rep. Michael Cloud (R-Texas). She previously was a senior legislative assistant for Rep. Ben Cline (R-Va.). OUT AND ABOUT — Axios’ annual “What’s Next Summit” included speakers like Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Paul Ryan and David Risher being interviewed about D.C., health, AI and tech. SPOTTED: Krista Pilot, Romesh Ratnesar, Krisztina Pusok, Taylor Bennett, Lynn Hanessian, Ernesto Apreza, Ashley Szofer, Brian Bartlett, Jerry Golden, Liza-Bart Carroll, Kate Brinks, Lauren Wolfson, Staci McCabe, Jacob Long, Liz Varner and David Smith. MEDIA MOVES — WaPo is adding Dan Merica and Matthew Choi as co-anchors of the Early Brief newsletter. Merica most recently has been an investigative reporter at the AP and is a The Messenger and CNN alum. Choi most recently has covered Washington for The Texas Tribune and is a POLITICO alum. TRANSITIONS — Former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) is joining Hogan Lovells as a senior counsel in the global regulatory and intellectual property practice, per POLITICO’s Caitlin Oprysko. (She also was spotted in the White House driveway yesterday.) … End Citizens United is adding Sarah Benzing as EVP of political, Justin Unga as VP of public affairs, Farah Melendez as VP of state campaigns and Amanda Crumley as VP of comms. … Erin Heeter is now VP at Melwood Global. She most recently was director of strategic comms at the Biden NSC, and is a DHS and Joe Manchin alum. … … Greg Warren is now tax counsel for Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.). He previously was legislative director for Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Ill.). … Olivia Tripodi is now press secretary for Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio). She previously was comms director for Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.). … Mike Vanaki is now director of government relations at the American Gaming Association. He previously was manager of government affairs at Inspire Brands. WEEKEND WEDDING — Naomi Zeigler, economic policy adviser to Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), and John Nagle, legislative assistant to Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.), got married Saturday at the Cathedral of St. Matthew the Apostle, with a reception at the Willard Hotel. They met through mutual friend (and groomsman) Daniel Savickas. Pic … SPOTTED: Robert Rosamelia, Laura Pastre, Elisabeth Coats and David Martin, Brian Papp and Stephanie Teagarden Papp, Michael and Karen Santora, Jacqueline Maffucci, Andrew Smith, Emily Spain, Natalie Adams and Ryan Krute. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Justice Samuel Alito (75) … Rachel Maddow … NYT’s Michael Crowley … Treasury’s Julia Hahn … former acting HUD Secretary Adrianne Todman … 2 Public Affairs’ Allison Harris … White House’s Jess Smith … Antonio White … Wess Mitchell … Erin Butler … John Palatiello of Miller/Wenhold Capitol Strategies … Ali Breland … Rodrigo Heng-Lehtinen of the National Center for Transgender Equality … Mary Popadiuk … Bully Pulpit Interactive’s Nicholas Rozzo … Campbell O’Connor … Matt Haller of the International Franchise Association … Frances Patano … Nancy Vu … Andrew Downing of Sen. Tim Sheehy’s (R-Mont.) office … Nancy Lee … Matt Purple … former Reps. Peter Deutsch (D-Fla.) and Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) … Commerce’s Erin Szulman … Elizabeth Villarreal … POLITICO’s Stephen Riddle and Zi-Ann Lum … Sharon Soderstrom Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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Today, teens can download any app – even ones parents don't want them to. Federal legislation that puts parents in charge of app downloads could change that, helping keep teens safe.
That's why Instagram supports federal legislation requiring app store parental approval and age verification for teens under 16.
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