| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine, Ali Bianco and Rachel Umansky-Castro On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and POLITICO’s Sophia Cai discuss peace in Ukraine, affordability in the U.S. and Donald Trump’s plans to reclassify marijuana.
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| Good Monday morning, and happy Hanukkah to those who celebrate. This is Jack Blanchard, discovering for the first time what real winter feels like. Get in touch. Warning: It won’t get any warmer in D.C. today. Per the Capital Weather Gang, temperatures will be a teeth-clenching 20 degrees as you head into work this morning, with “highs” of a mighty 30 or so by early afternoon. And don’t even mention the wind chill. Do take care on the ice. FIRST UP TODAY — Three major updates after a weekend of shocking violence in America and around the world. WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING I: Dramatic news out of Rhode Island, where the “person of interest” arrested by the FBI yesterday in connection with the mass shooting at Brown University has now been released. Police have resumed their search for the killer, who shot dead two students on Saturday and injured nine others. Latest here via CNN’s liveblog The shock announcement, at a hastily arranged news conference in Providence late last night, piles yet more pressure upon under-fire FBI chief Kash Patel, who has already been attacked by critics on the left and right over his performance. Patel had posted to X yesterday morning to proudly tell how an FBI team had used cellphone data to target and detain the “person of interest” in a hotel room in Coventry, Rhode Island. It now appears they got the wrong guy. Predictably, Patel was taking more flak from unimpressed critics last night, especially after state leaders confirmed it was the FBI who chased down this specific tip. Trump has already been forced into one public show of support for Patel this month, after reports he was about to be fired. Expect plenty more debate around Patel’s performance so long as the real suspect remains on the run. WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING II: Australian PM Anthony Albanese announced plans to tighten his nation’s gun laws in the wake of Sunday’s horrific attack at Bondi Beach. At least 15 people are confirmed to have died in the mass shooting during Hanukkah celebrations. “Albanese said he would propose new restrictions, including limiting the number of guns a licensed owner can obtain,” AP reports. He said: “The government is prepared to take whatever action is necessary. Included in that is the need for tougher gun laws … People can be radicalized over a period of time. Licenses should not be in perpetuity.” Australia last tightened its gun laws in 1996 after a mass shooting in Tasmania, in which more than 30 people were killed. Such incidents have since remained incredibly rare. WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING III: Tributes flooded in for actor, director and prominent Democratic donor Rob Reiner and his wife Michele, both of whom were killed in a knife attack yesterday in their Los Angeles home. Barack Obama wrote on X that he was “heartbroken.” Nancy Pelosi described Reiner as “creative, funny, and beloved” and Michele as “his indispensable partner.” Gavin Newsom hailed a “big-hearted genius.” Kamala Harris and husband Doug Emhoff paid tribute to their “dear friends.” A member of Reiner’s family is being questioned by police. Latest here via AP In today’s Playbook … — Trump and Putin are approaching their moment of truth. — Obamacare deadline hits as House GOP preps its latest health plan. — And will the president reclassify marijuana today?
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U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are entering a second day of intense negotiations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Berlin. | Alexander Kazakov/AP | UKRAINE END GAME: A moment of truth is fast approaching on Ukraine. How Donald Trump reacts will be pivotal to how — and whether — the end game plays out. The latest from Berlin: Trump’s top envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner are this morning entering a second day of intense negotiations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the German capital. And the big news thus far is that Zelenskyy has agreed to another concession; accepting Russian (and therefore American) demands that Ukraine give up its bid to join NATO. This is a big deal, chiefly because it’s part of a trend. After a week of hard-line transatlantic diplomacy kicked off by Trump’s interview with POLITICO last Monday, it’s clear Zelenskyy is now making real concessions as America pushes hard for peace. Reality bites: Abandoning NATO membership is the third major walkback from Zelenskyy in the space of a week. Last week he said he was prepared to hold presidential elections in the new year, after Trump applied pressure via his interview with Playbook’s Dasha Burns. Zelenskyy has also made clear he would grudgingly accept the freezing of the conflict at its current borders — essentially giving up the 20 percent-or-so of Ukraine that Russia has illegally seized. And now he’s given ground on NATO membership too. These are real concessions, but not capitulation. Instead of NATO membership, Zelenskyy wants Article 5-style assurances — essentially a promise that America and other powerful European nations would treat any further Russian attack on Ukraine as an attack on their own sovereignty. (This is, of course, by far the most important aspect of NATO membership to any smaller nation on Russia’s border.) More nuance: Zelenskyy says elections can only happen with Western support, given the obvious and overwhelming threat of Russian interference. And he is not prepared to give up land that Russia has been unable to take by force. The U.S. idea of a demilitarised zone in the fiercely contested Donbas region of eastern Ukraine is being strongly resisted, not least because nobody in Ukraine believes for a moment that Putin would abide by the rules.
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Explore our ongoing work. | | | | Nevertheless, the direction of travel is clear. Zelenskyy is shifting his position to meet Trump part-way on his demands. The zillion-dollar question: Will Putin do the same? Don’t hold your breath. The Russian leader has thus far made precisely zero concessions, despite a war effort that has floundered badly since the early days of 2022, and despite having suffered an estimated one million casualties on the battlefield. Putin insists his war of attrition will ultimately prove successful and that he has no need to compromise. Will Trump see things the same way? We might not have much longer to find out. Putin holds his end-of-year news conference on Friday morning, an epic annual event that can frequently last several hours. Obviously everything the Russian president says must be taken with a mountain-sized pinch of salt, but he’s bound to get into the details of peace talks in Ukraine. In the meantime, the cavalry will arrive for Zelenskyy in Berlin this afternoon, in the form of Ukraine’s top European allies. British PM Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO chief Mark Rutte will be among a crowd of continental leaders huddling with Zelenskyy later today. It’s unclear if Witkoff and Kushner also plan to meet with the Eurogang, or whether their appointment is with Zelenskyy alone. Regardless: There’s no doubt these negotiations are genuinely moving the dial. Witkoff has hailed “progress” on X. Finnish President Alexander Stubb, perhaps the European leader with the best relationship with Trump, said Sunday that “we’re probably closer to a peace agreement than we have been at any time during these four years.” An unnamed EU official tells the Kyiv Pos t that “for the first time in a long time, people are at least arguing over how to end the war — not whether.” Watch this space.
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| | | | ON THE HILL THE ACA DEBATE: Congress’ tussle over expiring enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies is coming to a head, with today marking the final deadline for Americans to enroll in Obamacare ahead of Jan. 1. With costs poised to spike in January, House Republicans are finally bringing forward their own health care plan this week. But will it go anywhere? Speaker Mike Johnson is expected to bring up a narrow package of legislation that doesn’t include an extension of the ACA tax credits, instead opting to “throw a bone to anxious rank-and-file members by giving them the chance to vote on an amendment that would continue the subsidies — a vote that’s almost guaranteed to fail,” POLITICO’s Inside Congress reports. In the meantime: Millions of Americans are now braced for huge premium increases next month — and at a time when cost-of-living struggles are already voters’ top issue. The politics: Democrats have a clear, simple and unified message on the ACA credits, while Republicans are all over the map, POLITICO’s Jordain Carney and colleagues report. The GOP’s long-held policy opposition to Obamacare stands in the way of the GOP getting behind a subsidy extension. “Now rank-and-file Republicans in both chambers are privately strategizing about how to pull off an unlikely 11th-hour deal.” And many of them are getting an earful from constituents worried about unaffordable health insurance bills in the new year, WaPo’s Karen Tumulty writes. Beyond health care: As voters rebuff Republicans on the economy, Trump sounds less convinced about the GOP’s prospects of midterm success by the day. “We should win,” he told the WSJ on Friday. “But, you know, statistically, it’s very tough to win.” VP JD Vance has an opportunity to steer the messaging back on track when he hits the road for a Pennsylvania event tomorrow. ALSO HAPPENING ON THE HILL TODAY: The Senate will take a procedural vote on the National Defense Authorization Act at 5:30 p.m. And the House Rules Committee will tee up a permitting reform bill, among other legislation, at 4 p.m. What James Comer is up to: The House Oversight chair’s battle with Bill and Hillary Clinton could ratchet up into contempt of Congress proceedings if they don’t show up in person for questioning in the panel’s Jeffrey Epstein probe, NYT’s Annie Karni reports. They’ve offered to provide sworn statements but have been rebuffed by the Kentucky Republican. Meanwhile, Comer’s panel released a new report yesterday accusing D.C. police of having intentionally downgraded certain crimes in their statistics to make the city seem safer than it is, NYT’s Minho Kim reports. Outgoing chief Pamela Smith has denied data manipulation.
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| | | | TRAIL MIX PRIMARY COLORS: In a crowded and crucial Democratic congressional primary, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is throwing his weight behind Bob Brooks, POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky scooped. The firefighter union leader, who’s running to oust GOP Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, will have Shapiro on hand to headline a fundraiser Thursday in Philadelphia. It’s a boost for Brooks. And, along with Shapiro’s plans to get involved with multiple other congressional races, it’s “a major test of Shapiro’s coattails in a critical swing state in 2026,” ahead of a possible 2028 presidential bid. SPEAKING OF 2028: Former VP Kamala Harris has reemerged in a significant way in recent days, from an expanded book tour to more aggressive remarks at a DNC meeting, stoking speculation that she could gear up for another presidential bid, Axios’ Alex Thompson reports from LA. “Both parties have failed to hold the public’s trust,” Harris said at the DNC. “People are done with the status quo and they’re ready to break things to force change.” Meanwhile, Democratic operatives see California Gov. Gavin Newsom as the one to beat, Thompson and Holly Otterbein report: “Many now begrudgingly admit they underestimated him.” But try to beat him they will, as rivals plan to tar him as too California-lefty and dredge up personal scandals. RED-LIGHT REDISTRICT: A new poll from the University of Maryland, Baltimore County finds Marylanders divided over whether Democrats in charge in Annapolis should push through an even deeper congressional gerrymander to counteract Trump’s nationwide power grab, POLITICO’s Brakkton Booker reports. Roughly 45 percent support a mid-decade redistricting or say they dislike it but consider it necessary, while roughly 47 percent oppose a new map or say they like it but it’s the wrong thing to do. Most Marylanders don’t consider this a top priority for legislators. The results
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Learn more. | | | | BEST OF THE REST GREEN NEW DEAL: Will Trump relax federal laws on cannabis today? There were widespread reports last week that Trump is poised to reclassify marijuana, with CNBC suggesting the executive order could even come “as soon as Monday.” There’s no EO signing on Trump’s official schedule, however, which consists of a border medal ceremony at 3 p.m. followed by a couple of Christmas parties later this evening. But of course that could change. THE CRACKDOWN: The Trump administration has to withdraw National Guard troops from Los Angeles by today, after a federal judge ruled that their extended deployment was illegal and an appeals court mostly upheld his decision. Though legal battles over the military on American streets have yet to be resolved in several cities, Trump’s intense immigration crackdown continues apace. And in the ongoing New Orleans sweeps, fewer than one-tenth of people detained by Border Patrol have any criminal history, The Times-Picayune’s James Finn reports. More immigration files: Thousands of young unauthorized immigrants who hold special immigrant juvenile status are increasingly facing deportations, as the Trump administration does away with protections that were long in place for youth, NYT’s Ana Ley reports. Meanwhile in Minnesota, Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar told WCCO’s Esme Murphy that ICE agents had pulled over her son and asked him to prove his citizenship. HOT ON THE RIGHT I: Erika Kirk said she planned to meet with Candace Owens, who has been pushing conspiracy theories about Charlie Kirk’s killing, today for a private conversation. The two women have vowed not to speak out in public before then, Kirk announced on X. HOT ON THE RIGHT II: “How a Tech-Savvy Officer Finally Cracked the Jan. 6 Pipe-Bombs Case,” by WSJ’s Sadie Gurman and Ryan Barber: “For four years, a tranche of cellphone data provided to the FBI by T-Mobile US sat on a digital shelf because investigators couldn’t figure out how to read it … The data turned out to be essential to cracking the case, [people familiar] said, a breakthrough that happened only recently when a tech-savvy law-enforcement officer wrote a new computer program that finally deciphered the information.” PAGING LEE ZELDIN: The anti-abortion group Students for Life of America is mounting a lobbying effort to try to get the EPA to include abortion drug mifepristone on “a list of drinking water contaminants tracked by public utilities,” POLITICO’s Alice Miranda Ollstein and Ariel Wittenberg report. It’s an effort to align social conservatism with the MAHA movement and galvanize greater public opposition to mifepristone. BLEEDING CUTS: Across conservative, rural Montana, the Department of Government Efficiency’s sweeping cuts to federal workers and the public lands they manage are having a major impact on many people’s way of life, Cassidy Randall reports in a big POLITICO Magazine feature. Public lands are deeply popular across party lines in Montana, and now, “with further cuts and rollbacks proposed at the same time people are beginning to personally feel the impacts of public lands attacks, policymakers are waking a political sleeping giant.” FOR YOUR RADAR: “Conservative Wins Resoundingly in Chile’s Presidential Election,” by NYT’s Emma Bubola in Santiago: “José Antonio Kast has promised to reverse Chile’s recent surge in violent crime. He also says he will deport undocumented migrants.”
| | | | Sponsored Survey WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU: Please take a 1-minute survey about one of our advertising partners. | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | Lee Zeldin had a cancerous lesion removed from his nose, and urged people to wear sunscreen and get skin checks regularly. LIFE AFTER PETE — Dan Caldwell, who left the Defense Department earlier this year as a top aide to Pete Hegseth as part of a high-profile staffing shakeup, has a new gig as a senior fellow for foreign policy at American Moment. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Jon Blum is now an SVP at Venture Government Strategies. He most recently worked at the Treasury Department and is an American Bankers Association and WilmerHale alum. TRANSITIONS — Carol Danko is now a partner at Continental Strategy. She previously worked at Prudential Financial. … Rachel Gorsky Bombach is joining Democratic Majority for Israel as chief policy officer. She previously worked at Kasowitz LLP, and is a Dianne Feinstein and Obama NSC alum. WEDDING — Jim Carter, a principal with Navigators Global and a Bush White House and Labor Department alum, and Julianne Shinto, a political consultant, got married Wednesday in Old Town Alexandria. They met 19 months ago at the Capitol Hill Club. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) … Ruy Teixeira … retired Gen. John Allen … Donna Brazile … POLITICO’s Isabel Dobrin and Mollie Parlini … Valerie Yurk … Andrew Coté of Forterra … Jim Dornan … Lauren French of Senate Majority PAC … Heather Booth … Tara Corrigan of the Messina Group … Colton Snedecor … Jeff Le of 100 Mile Strategies … Lenny Young of Rep. Julia Brownley’s (D-Calif.) office … Patrick Oakford … Fox News’ Griff Jenkins … Andy Polesovsky … Caroline Ponseti of Invariant … Robert Boland … Brett Quick of PhronesisDC … Bill Knapp … Chris Barron of Right Turn Strategies … McCauley (Mateja) Greene … Danyell Tremmel … Thorn Run Partners’ Jess Venable Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Garrett Ross. | | | | Follow us on X | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Canada Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | |
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