INFLATION NATION: The U.S. got an unexpected reprieve on inflation in November, according to the latest Labor Department data — which comes as a boost to an affordability-challenged White House, though it also arrives with a shutdown-shaped caveat. By the numbers: Prices rose 2.7 percent year over year last month, slowing down from 3 percent in September, POLITICO’s Victoria Guida reports. (The October numbers are lost to time, as the government shutdown interrupted Bureau of Labor Statistics data collection that month.) Economists had predicted that the rate would hold steady or tick up. This is the lowest increase since July. And the core consumer price index, which strips out capricious food and fuel data, was up 2.6 percent — the smallest increase since March 2021, Bloomberg’s Mark Niquette notes. Victory lap: “Americans can expect this trend of lower prices and bigger paychecks to continue into the New Year!” celebrated White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt. “Absolute blockbuster,” crowed National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett on Fox Business. For President Donald Trump, who has struggled to stay on message as Democrats rack up electoral victories over the cost of living, the new CPI report is a shot in the arm. And it’s more evidence that sweeping tariffs haven’t yet caused prices to leap. Cooling inflation could also make the Fed more willing to cut interest rates again, as Trump has demanded. Stock markets climbed higher on the inflation news — and the subsequent hopes for a rate cut, per Reuters. But but but: The reliability of this data is less certain than usual, due to disruptions from the shutdown. Fed Chair Jerome Powell already hedged before the inflation report came out, saying last week that it “may be distorted by very technical factors” — being overly influenced by Black Friday deals, for instance — so the central bank would have to approach it with a “skeptical eye.” Some economists raised questions about assumptions BLS made for October, including on rent. That’ll make the next inflation report, on December’s numbers, all the more closely watched. But at least “it seems safe to conclude that inflation didn’t accelerate significantly” this fall, NYT’s Ben Casselman writes. How it feels: Even if inflation is holding steady, most Americans are still seeing little relief from sustained high prices, which have already doomed many incumbent politicians around the world and helped usher Trump back into the White House. But the labor market looks fairly stable this month, as new unemployment claims dropped back down from last week’s increase, per Reuters. The looming cliff: CPI aside, Americans’ broader affordability concerns will only intensify when enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies expire at month’s end. And now that it’s clear Congress won’t strike a deal to extend them before January, interest groups are ramping up their messaging to convince the voters that the other party’s to blame, POLITICO’s Amanda Chu reports. (Democrats have the narrative advantage here.) Senate Majority Leader John Thune today again threw cold water on the prospect of a three-year clean extension passing the Senate. Shutdown watch: The parties’ fight over Obamacare credits could help trigger another government shutdown at the end of January, like it did the last one — but Chuck Schumer is lowering the temperature there. The Senate minority leader told Punchbowl’s Andrew Desiderio and Samantha Handler that “we’d like to get an appropriations bill done. That’s a Jan. 30 deadline … We’re trying to work with the Republicans to get it done.” That will be their top priority this time, as enough Democratic senators seem likely to separate the ACA debate from the funding/shutdown clock. BREAKING: Leavitt announced that the Kennedy Center’s board has voted to rename it the Trump-Kennedy Center. Good Thursday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.
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1. MAJOR MOVE: “Trump Moves to End Access to Gender-Related Care for Minors,” by NYT’s Azeen Ghorayshi and colleagues: “The federal government on Thursday acted to put an end to gender-related care for minors across the nation, threatening to pull federal funding from any hospital that offered such treatment. … [It] is not just a regulatory shift but the latest signal that the federal government does not recognize even the existence of people whose gender identity does not align with their sex at birth. If finalized, the proposed new rules, announced by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at a news conference Thursday morning, would effectively shut down hospitals that failed to comply.” 2. LESS THAN MEETS THE EYE: Trump’s big announcement last night that members of the armed forces would each get a $1,776 bonus is actually just a rebrand of military housing money already passed in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Defense One’s Thomas Novelly scooped. It isn’t anything new from the White House, and Trump’s implication that the money might tap into tariff revenue couldn’t be verified, per POLITICO’s Leo Shane III and Joe Gould. 3. DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS: The U.S. has green-lighted another $11.1 billion in weapons sales to Taiwan, including Himars missile launchers and howitzers, per the WSJ. The Pentagon’s announcement — which it framed as a boost for Taiwanese self-defense, deterrence and peace — kicks off a process of congressional review. This record U.S. arms package for Taipei amounts to a strong demonstration of American backing, but the news also elicited a sharp denunciation from China: “For the U.S., assisting the ‘independence’ agenda by arming Taiwan will only backfire,” its foreign ministry spokesperson said in a statement. 4. WHO AUTOPSIES THE AUTOPSIES? DNC Chair Ken Martin has decided not to make public the Democrats’ autopsy of what went wrong in 2024, reneging on his earlier pledge to put out the review, POLITICO’s Elena Schneider reports. The DNC opted to keep its focus forward-looking, particularly in light of this year’s electoral victories, and Martin said in a statement that releasing the report would distract from helping the party keep winning. Partial excerpts obtained by Elena show warnings about Democrats’ organizing tactics, data infrastructure and the party’s standing with young voters who get their news from influencers. It isn’t clear whether the autopsy addresses Joe Biden’s age or sputtering partial campaign. 5. TRAIL MIX: Boca Raton, Florida, Mayor Scott Singer today kicked off a bid to unseat Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz, whose already competitive seat could be altered by a new GOP gerrymander, per the South Florida Sun Sentinel’s Anthony Man. Singer, a Republican, tied himself closely to Trump in his launch; he enters as a prominent elected official in the race, though he has competition in the primary. (He’s also a “Jeopardy!” and “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?” alum.) More launches: In North Carolina, Michele Morrow is mounting a splashy primary challenge from the far right against Michael Whatley for the GOP Senate nomination, The News & Observer’s Kyle Ingram reports. She was the nominee for state superintendent of public instruction last year. And Democrat Allison Jaslow plans to jump into the race against GOP Rep. Greg Murphy, CBS’ Hunter Woodall and Scott MacFarlane scooped. The Iraq War veteran is hoping Republicans’ gerrymander will make this safe-red seat more competitive — a tall order for Dems. The big picture: The fallout from DOGE and Trump’s sweeping cuts to the federal workforce now includes several former civil servants running for Congress as Democrats, Reuters’ Joseph Ax reports. … NOTUS’ Riley Rogerson and colleagues asked more than 120 House Republicans whether they’re running for reelection — and found several who weren’t yet at 100 percent yes. 6. TALKER: “‘Don’s Best Friend’: How Epstein and Trump Bonded Over the Pursuit of Women,” by NYT’s Nicholas Confessore and Julie Tate: “An examination of their history by The New York Times has found no evidence implicating Mr. Trump in [Jeffrey] Epstein’s abuse and trafficking of minors. But the two men’s relationship was both far closer and far more complex than the president now admits. Beginning in the late 1980s, the two men forged a bond intense enough to leave others who knew them with the impression that they were each other’s closest friend … Neither man drank or did drugs. They pursued women in a game of ego and dominance. Female bodies were currency.” Leavitt’s response: “This fake news story, which is not worth the paper it’s printed on, is just another stale regurgitation of decades-old false allegations against President Trump. … President Trump did nothing wrong, and he kicked Jeffrey Epstein out of Mar-a-Lago for being a creep.” The latest: “Democrats release more photos from Epstein estate,” by POLITICO’s Hailey Fuchs 7. BLEEDING CUTS: In rural public school districts, the Trump administration’s cancellation of millions of dollars in federal grants has left schools struggling to fill financial holes and staff shortages, AP’s Annie Ma reports from Shelbyville, Kentucky. Money has been halted for mental health counselors, teacher development work and community engagement, among other priorities, and rural districts in particular have a difficult time finding staff to replace those whose leave. 8. THE CRACKDOWN: In Artesia, New Mexico, CNN’s David Culver and Rachel Clarke went inside the Border Patrol Academy as it trains a gusher of new recruits. Many are Spanish speakers and border-region natives. Their curriculum has now reintegrated learning about tactics like car chases (on driving simulators and tracks) and upgraded arms technology. The fast-moving updates are thanks in part to money from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and some agents who are already in the field have come back to bone up on tactics like offensive driving. On the flip side: As protests have ramped up against the federal immigration crackdown, the Justice Department has struggled to punish those it accuses of assaulting federal officers and other lawbreaking, AP’s Michael Biesecker and colleagues report. Their analysis finds that across Chicago, Los Angeles, Portland and D.C., 166 federal criminal cases have yielded a mixed record: None of the five who went to trial were convicted; more than two-fifths of the total cases involved misdemeanor charges; and most of those initially charged with felony assault had their charges reduced or dropped. The view from Congress Heights: “The lasting impact of Trump’s federal surge on one D.C. neighborhood,” by WaPo’s Ellie Silverman and colleagues: “In the months since [the August takeover], 10th Place residents who spoke with The Washington Post said the president’s crime strategy has not fixed their community’s chronic public safety issues. Despite a dip in violent crime and no reported shootings from Aug. 11 to Sept. 10 in their neighborhood, many said the tactics used by law enforcement deepened their distrust of authorities and made them feel no safer.”
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TRUMP INC.: “Trump Media to merge with TAE Technologies, creating one of the first publicly-traded fusion companies,” by Fox News’ Brooke Singman: It’s “a more-than $6 billion merger to blaze the path toward America’s dominance in artificial intelligence and energy security … In 2026, the newly-combined company plans to site a location and begin construction on the world’s first utility-scale fusion power plant.” OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED yesterday at the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency for a Hanukkah celebration that had earlier been the subject of much foot-dragging by the agency: Gen. Michele Bredenkamp, Rabbi Yehuda Kaploun, Earl Matthews, John Eisenberg, Alexei Bulazel, Ezra Cohen, Leo Terrell and Brett Markham. — SPOTTED at Ryan Coyne’s “Make Christmas Great Again” party last night: Reps. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), Beth Van Duyne (R-Texas), Rich McCormick (R-Ga.) and John McGuire (R-Va.), Chris Ruddy, Stephen Miran, David Malpass, Ben Black, Josh Fisher, Lynne Patton, Caroline Wren, Jason Miller, Mora Namdar, Frank Cassidy, Alexandra Preate, Martin Marks, Alice Johnson, Daniel Torok, Terrence Williams, Brandon Tatum, Bubba Saulsbury, Victoria Barton, Brette Powell, Pete Marocco, Barry Bennett, Billy Kirkland, Christl Mahfouz, Raheem Kassam and Harry Kumar. — Tommy Quinn had his 88th birthday party last night at Joe’s Stone Crab, including holiday tunes, ahead of Quinn’s new memoir about his decades “in the swamp” coming out next year. SPOTTED: Sens. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Reps. Jim Costa (D-Calif.), Seth Magaziner (D-R.I.) and Gabe Amo (D-R.I.), Terry McAuliffe, Tom McMillen, Peter Sirh, Yebbie Watkins, Lynly Boor, Andrew Quinn, Gerry Harrington, Lyndon Boozer, David Jones, George Sifakis, Robbie Aiken, Bayly Hassell, Lisa Whisler, Rob Harmala, Larry Duncan, John Arundel and Todd Flournoy. — The National Association of Manufacturers hosted their annual caroling at the Unique Rehabilitation and Health Center yesterday. SPOTTED: Amy Rawlings, Julie Chase, Shonzia Thompson, Jamie Hennigan, Alexa Lopez, Joseph Murphy, Emily Carbone, Margot Murphy, Besher Al Makhlouf, Stephanie Kuta, Christine Ravold, Penelope Brown, Bridgeen Joyce, Monique Lopez, Eliza Quinn and Shareq Rashid. — Contest Every Race hosted its holiday party last night in Foggy Bottom, where executive director Zoë Stein encouraged guests to help field Democratic candidates in races where Republicans have no opposition. SPOTTED: Santiago Mayer, Camaron Stevenson, Lucy Arthur-Paratley, Nina Harris and Heather Booth. — SPOTTED at a Washington AI Network winter speakeasy, presented by Meta, at the House at 1229 yesterday evening: David Ginsberg, Kaitlan Collins, David Gelles, Josh Dawsey, Andy Stone, Matt Kaplan, Jackie Rooney, Brian Roehrkasse, Donnie Fowler, Phil Rucker, Maryam Mujica, Craig Gordon, Jonathan and Betsy Fischer Martin, Helen Milby, Katelyn Bledsoe, Sabrina Singh, Janet Adamy, Annie Linskey, Christine Brennan, Colin Demarest, Sumi Somaskanda, Keenan Austin Reed, Katy Balls, Lauren Williams, Emily Wilkins, Maggie Eastland, Naomi Nix, Victoria Espinel, Matt Paul, Matt Gorman, Adrienne Elrod, Dannia Hakki and Tammy Haddad. MEDIA MOVE — Savannah Behrmann is joining CQ Roll Call to cover the Senate. She previously worked at National Journal. ENGAGED — Gus Stern, a senior broker at Advanced Aviation Team, proposed to Adonna Biel, who works in comms at Netflix and is a Biden State Department and campaign alum, on Monday at the Georgetown waterfront. They first fell in love in D.C. before moving to Los Angeles. Pic … Another pic Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Garrett Ross. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook PM misspelled Meredith Lee Hill’s name.
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