| | | |  | | By Jack Blanchard with Dasha Burns | | Presented by: |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Ali Bianco, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha pick through last night’s thrilling Senate primaries in Texas — and discuss why Donald Trump isn’t quite as focused on the midterms as you might have thought.
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| Good Wednesday morning. This is Jack Blanchard, still gripped by the GOP primary race for North Carolina state Senate District 26, where the margin is currently just two votes. Don’t you just love election nights? Drop me a line. THAT DIDN’T TAKE LONG: They only announced his primary victory at 2:40 a.m., but the Democrats’ new Senate candidate for Texas, James Talarico, is already facing a barrage of Republican attacks. Talarico comfortably defeated his rival, Rep. Jasmine Crockett, on a thrilling night of midterm primaries, soured only by concerns raised by both candidates that voters were disenfranchised in Crockett’s home base of Dallas County. She has yet to concede — but with victory assured, you can expect Talarico’s already sky-high profile to go through the roof. Dems are thrilled: With his mix of viral online comms and religious fervor, Talarico is seen by Dems as their best hope of winning statewide in Texas for the first time in decades. And the barrage of Republican attacks aimed his way last night suggest he has half a chance. “Beto 2.0” was the scathing verdict of one Republican close to the White House, referring to Beto O’Rourke, Dems’ last big (failed) Texan hope. “Texas’ already-radical Democrat Party nominated the race’s most leftist radical,” former Trump White House official Taylor Budowich told Dasha. "Talarico is a far-left liberal. This is still Texas. Good luck!” a third GOP operative said. Expect plenty more in the weeks ahead. With friends like these: Dems, meanwhile, were busy dumping on Crockett’s failed campaign, with one former Biden-Harris staffer telling Playbook’s Adam Wren that her unexpected endorsement from former VP Kamala Harris did no favors. “Her rapidly declining polling numbers are a lagging indicator,” the former staffer said of their old boss. “Her lack of political relevancy is a leading one.” In the red corner: The big question now is who Talarico will face, with GOP incumbent Sen. John Cornyn forced into a May 26 runoff with Texas AG Ken Paxton. The two rivals were still going at it hammer and tongs last night, and it’s clear this race is only going to get messier and more expensive over the next three months. But Cornyn did way better than expected last night, and there’s real hope now for Republicans who believe he would comfortably hold the seat if he wins the primary. An endorsement from Trump in the coming days could put this one to bed, POLITICO’s Liz Crampton and Adam report. In today’s Playbook … — Pray for Susie Wiles: Does Trump even care about the midterms? — We’ve got all the big down-ballot results from last night. — And Tim Walz joins Kristi Noem on the Hill for a day of fury over Minnesota.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | TRUMP TORCHES THE MIDTERMS: Successful politicians are normally laser-focused on political strategy in an election year. And for 2026, the White House’s strategy was crystal clear. After the GOP’s crushing off-year election defeats in November, Trump’s deputy chief of staff James Blair told Dasha on “The Conversation” that a comeback plan was already in place. “We're a year out,” he said. “We know what the path is … It’s really just about execution … I think you’ll see the president talk a lot about cost of living as we turn the year and into the new year,” Blair said. “The president is very keyed into what’s going on … I think we’ll see him be very, very focused on prices and cost of living.” About that focus: Two months into 2026, and Trump has held four “affordability” rallies. He’s made a handful of policy announcements on the cost of living. And he’s launched a stunning military operation in Venezuela, a hyper-aggressive immigration drive in Minnesota that left two Americans dead, caused a major diplomatic incident over Greenland, seen his DOJ forced to release millions of documents from the Epstein files and attempt to prosecute the chair of the Federal Reserve. And the government is partially shut down, again. And now there’s this: Embarking on a major war in the Middle East — with little effort to prepare the U.S. public — would be pretty far from anyone’s ideal election-year strategy, let alone for an operation that literally campaigned on ending foreign wars. But Trump doesn’t seem to care. Polls at the outset showed historically low levels of public support, and since then — as POLITICO’s Myah Ward and colleagues note — GOP leaders have struggled to offer a consistent case as to why the president had to act. Most Hill Republicans remain supportive in public — and Republican leadership expects to win the war powers vote in the Senate this afternoon. But privately, we’re hearing a very different story. “Most Republicans want clear objectives, clearer than they are now,” one worried House Republican tells POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill. Another says the president’s rationale “sounds a little bit like President Lyndon Johnson going into Vietnam.” Republican strategists are equally worried. “I have no problem blowing up the Iranians,” one close to the White House tells Dasha. “But when you're at war, that is 75 percent of your time. This is what Susie [Wiles] is gonna be doing, this is what James Blair will be doing. This is what senior staff will be dealing with. And that is a problem.” Ticking clock: “It needs to get over quick, otherwise this is a f--king nightmare. It already is a nightmare, because you’ve got the MAGA coalition just tearing at the seams. Anything in a game of subtraction right now is f--king disastrous. Anything that we do that hurts our own base … is catastrophic … They need to explain to the American people, [and] they need, frankly, to do it pretty quickly. And specifically to the Republican base.”
| | A message from Anthropic: Qualified Health used Claude, built by Anthropic, to screen 1M+ heart failure patients in Texas. It surfaced life-saving interventions that were buried in fragmented data. See how | | | | That messaging drive continues today. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and his top general Dan Caine have another 8 a.m. news conference. Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations at 12 p.m. Press secretary Karoline Leavitt will brief the White House press corps at 1 p.m. And Trump has a “phone interview” on his official schedule, to go with the 20-something unscheduled phone interviews he’s conducted since Saturday morning. (POLITICO’s Sophia Cai and RealClearPolitics’ Philip Wegmann are the latest names added to the caller list.) Trump is also speaking at a White House event this afternoon, focused on his “Ratepayer Protection Pledge” — the drive to get big tech firms to build their own power plants for data centers. It should in theory be a positive affordability story for the White House — but how many of the questions thrown at Trump, and how much of the coverage afterward, will inevitably focus on war? FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Polling improvement? There are some signs the White House’s messaging blitz is having an effect. A new poll shared with Playbook by conservative pollsters OnMessage found support for Iran strikes is now neck and neck, with 49 percent in favor and 48 percent opposed — significantly better than many other surveys we’ve seen this week. (It’s also significantly better than Trump’s own favorability score in the same polling — 54 percent negative vs. 45 percent positive — which suggests the cohort did not skew pro-Trump.) A Fox News poll last night also found a 50/50 split. But no amount of flood-the-zone messaging can hide serious setbacks on the ground. Last night we saw the heartbreaking pictures of the first four U.S. servicemembers killed in this operation. U.S. interests are being hit around the Middle East. The wall-to-wall coverage of Americans trying, and failing, to evacuate only adds to the sense of chaos. Speaking of which: Lawmakers given classified briefings last night expect Trump to ask Congress for emergency cash to finance the war — on top of the nearly $1 trillion Congress has already given the military this past year, POLITICO’s Jennifer Scholtes and Katherine Tully-McManus report. And in the Gulf, crude oil supplies from Iraq and Kuwait could start shutting down within days if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, JPMorgan analysts said in a note reported by Reuters. U.S. gasoline prices are already above $3 a gallon. It all makes for easy picking for Dems. “At the end of the day, no one has convinced me … that the midterms will not be won or lost on questions of the economy and affordability,” a Democratic strategist who works on House campaigns tells Playbook’s Eli Okun. Dems envisage adding the Iran war to a list of what they will paint as Trump’s broken campaign promises — lowering prices, deporting the “worst of the worst” immigrants, releasing the Epstein files and now ending forever wars. “It ends up being another easy-to-understand data point to the typical voter who already feels … ‘this is not what I was promised.’” LATEST WAR BITES: Iran could announce the successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei this morning, the NYT reports, with his son Mojtaba Khamenei the front-runner … But Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said whoever is picked will be a “target for elimination” … The CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces with the aim of fomenting a popular uprising in Iran, CNN reports … And the biggest American defense contractors will be called to the White House Friday to discuss accelerating weapons production, Reuters reports. NOW READ THIS: Trump’s war whisperer (and frequent golf partner) Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) sat down with POLITICO’s Jordain Carney to explain the success of his long campaign to take military action against Iran.
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| | | | TRAIL MIX ABOUT LAST NIGHT: The most astonishing election result wasn’t even in a federal race. North Carolina state Senate leader Phil Berger is down by two votes out of more than 26,000 cast in his reelection campaign against Sam Page. That’s with all precincts reporting, but provisional/overseas ballots still need to be counted and a recount will be in the offing, so a final result could be a while yet. Berger is by some measures considered the most powerful man in North Carolina, but Page is a prominent longtime county sheriff who posed a stiff challenge. The big-ticket snoozers: As expected, it’s Roy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley in November for the North Carolina Senate seat, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders well on their way to another term, and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott taking on Gina Hinojosa. The other major results you need to know: Texas’ 2nd: Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) became the first incumbent congressman ousted this year. Conservative state Rep. Steve Toth cruised to a double-digit victory over Crenshaw, who was flying without Trump’s backing, per POLITICO’s Andrew Howard. Texas’ 15th: Bobby Pulido easily claimed the Democratic nomination to take on GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz. Texas’ 18th: Incumbent Democratic Reps. Christian Menefee and Al Green are likely headed for a runoff, though it hasn’t been called yet. Menefee leads by roughly half a point in round one. Texas’ 23rd: A runoff has been called in one of the night’s highest-profile races, pitting scandal-plagued GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales against hard-right gun influencer Brandon Herrera, per POLITICO’s Samuel Benson. Texas’ 33rd: Democratic Rep. Julie Johnson may be in trouble in the newly redrawn district. She trails former Rep. Colin Allred by roughly 11 points, though he’s below the 50 percent threshold to avoid a runoff. Texas’ 34th: Trump-backed Eric Flores handily dispatched former Rep. Mayra Flores’ comeback bid in the GOP primary to challenge Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez. Texas AG: State Sen. Mayes Middleton and Rep. Chip Roy will go to a GOP runoff, with Middleton so far in the first-round lead, per Samuel. North Carolina’s 1st: Rematch time! Republican Laurie Buckhout pulled out a narrow win over Asa Buck to challenge Democratic Rep. Don Davis for the second-straight cycle — this time in a more favorably gerrymandered district. North Carolina’s 4th: No Democratic House primary last night drew more attention than Rep. Valerie Foushee’s effort to ward off progressive Nida Allam. Foushee looks to have very narrowly beaten back the challenge — she leads by less than 1 point and has claimed victory — but the race hasn’t been called and is likely in recount territory.
| | | | POLITICO Forecast The forces reshaping politics, policy and power are accelerating across regions and sectors. Drawing on POLITICO’s global reporting, Forecast connects the dots — from major global moments to behind-the-scenes developments — to help readers anticipate what comes next. Sign up for POLITICO Forecast. | | | | | Big-picture takeaways and under-the-radar morsels: In a number of crucial swing districts, the House GOP establishment landed the nominees it wanted, as Punchbowl’s Ally Mutnick points out: Flores, Buckhout, Tano Tijerina in Texas. … The Arkansas secretary of state GOP primary is a nail-biter, splitting in nearly even thirds as Bryan Norris leads by less than half a point. … North Carolina progressives ousted three moderate-to-conservative Democratic incumbents in the state legislature. … Democrats had a pair of Arkansas overperformances, flipping a GOP state House seat in a special election and seeing the liberal candidate in the state Supreme Court race lose by just 10 points. NEW THIS MORNING: Democrats with long-shot dreams of flipping the Senate have more places to look than just Texas. Today, Seth Bodnar is launching an independent bid in Montana. The former University of Montana president, Green Beret and Rhodes scholar epitomizes a new approach — one apparently encouraged by former Sen. Jon Tester — for challenging Republicans in states where the Democratic brand has become toxic. Bodnar’s announcement accuses both parties of failing Americans. Watch his launch video
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| | | | BEST OF THE REST IMMIGRATION ON THE HILL, DAY TWO: The federal immigration crackdown in Minnesota will be front and center in Congress today, with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and AG Keith Ellison facing House Oversight at 9 a.m. over their state’s fraud scandal. Walz’s opening statement will acknowledge the fraud problems and commit to solving them — but will also blast the Trump administration for having “singled out and targeted [Minnesota] for political retribution.” We then switch into sensational split-screen action at 10 a.m. with DHS Secretary Kristi Noem back before House Judiciary after her bipartisan scorching in the Senate. Noem mostly kept her cool yesterday, but she’ll hope there are no House GOP surprises like Sens. John Kennedy (R-La.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who joined Democrats in grilling Noem, per POLITICO’s Eric Bazail-Eimil. The backdrop for her testimony keeps getting tougher: The DHS IG accused top leaders of having “systematically obstructed” its watchdog work in a criminal probe and many other instances, WSJ’s Tarini Parti and Josh Dawsey scooped. YouGov’s latest poll found public support for outright abolishing ICE at a record 50 percent high, with just 39 percent opposed. TALES FROM THE CRYPTO: In a dispute between the banking and cryptocurrency sectors over stalled crypto legislation, Trump has come down on the side of the latter, per POLITICO’s Jasper Goodman. Notably, his social media post followed a meeting with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Jasper scooped. SCOTUS WATCH: The Supreme Court will release more opinions this morning. We’re still waiting for major rulings on the Voting Rights Act and conversion therapy … but there’s no way of knowing what’s coming today. BIG IF TRUE: “US turns up heat on Venezuela with threat to indict new leader Delcy Rodriguez,” by Reuters’ Sarah Kinosian and Matt Spetalnick: “The Trump administration is quietly building a legal case against Venezuelan interim president Delcy Rodriguez including readying a draft criminal indictment, one of several tools it is using to strengthen its leverage with Caracas.” Deputy AG Todd Blanche slammed the story as “Completely FALSE.” FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Dems build infrastructure: The National Democratic Training Committee is committing $1.25 million this year and nearly $4 million through 2028 for Democratic staff training. That’s a significant investment to help bolster staffing for Dem campaigns, as the NDTC seeks to address capacity challenges across the country and up and down the ballot. NEVER CHANGE, NEW JERSEY: “New Jersey Republicans can’t quit Chris Christie,” by POLITICO’s Daniel Han and Madison Fernandez
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➡️ Learn More about POLITICO Pro | | | | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | STRICTLY BALLROOM — “‘Cheap’ and ‘Appalling’: Trump’s Ballroom Plans Receive a Flood of Negative Comments,” by NYT’s Luke Broadwater and Dylan Freedman: “The National Capital Planning Commission received about 32,000 messages during its public comment period. Suffice it to say: Many people are not happy with the president’s ballroom plans.” NOT SO NICE — Health inspections at Trump National Golf Club Westchester in November found vermin, dirty surfaces and other health code violations, NOTUS’ Taylor Giorno reports. SPORTS BLINK — POLITICO’s Ben Johansen and Sophia Cai have the inside story of FBI Director Kash Patel’s time coaching high school hockey during the first Trump administration. Patel “was intense, competitive and deeply invested in a rag-tag upstart youth team, according to five former players at Woodrow Wilson High School.” OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a fundraiser for Rep. Sarah McBride (D-Del.) hosted by HBS at its D.C. office yesterday evening: Gregg Hartley, California state Sen. Jerry McNerney, Shawn Brown, Brennen Cain, Joe Novotny, Jeanne Delgado, Lindsey Hornickel, John Assini and Cooper Ehrendreich. — The National Interest’s Steve Clemons hosted a discussion at Cafe Milano last night about making North American economic security and national security work together, with Paul Dabbar, Benjamin LeRoy, Kristin Toth and Tanya Skilton. At the start, Steven Mnuchin walked in thinking that it was his dinner, before turning around for another room. SPOTTED: Will Cappelletti, Sushan Demirjian, Chris Gallant, Avery Ash, Leslie Arnold, Seth Levey, Jacob Heilbrunn, Charles Johnson, Jasper Jung, Chad Thompson, Roger Martella, Del Renigar, Beth Roberts, Rebecca Rosen, Matt Krupnick, Joshua Kroon, Thomas Haslett, Scott Friedman, Paul Ferraro, Amanda Farrell and Beth Roberts. MEDIA MOVES — Missy Khamvongsa is joining NOTUS as a senior editor. She most recently worked at WaPo. … Molly Hensley-Clancy will be a higher education reporter at ProPublica. She most recently worked at WaPo. … Brandon Conradis is now a policy editor at Bloomberg Tax/Bloomberg Government. He previously worked at The Hill. TRANSITIONS — Jeremy Edwards is joining NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s office as deputy press secretary for transportation, infrastructure and emergency management. He previously worked at the Century Foundation and is a Biden White House and FEMA alum. … Prem Kumar has been appointed CEO of DGA Group. He previously was president. … The Armenian Assembly of America is adding Armen Sahakyan as Armenia country director and Sophia Badalian as public relations and digital engagement manager. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sens. James Lankford (R-Okla.) and Tina Smith (D-Minn.) … Reps. Chris Smith (R-N.J.) and Troy Downing (R-Mont.) … MS NOW’s Vaughn Hillyard … Alex Butcher-Nesbitt of the Clooney Foundation for Justice … Emily Bazelon … former Energy Secretary Rick Perry … Doug Hoelscher … Ellen Gilmer of Bloomberg Government … Shirley Henry … UNICEF’s Cathy Russell … Maria Recio … Jesse Solis … POLITICO’s Mark McQuillan and Nick Reisman … Seth Washington … Allison Putala … Kate Bennett … Stephanie Gidigbi Jenkins … Abby Jagoda … Fenton’s Valerie Jean-Charles … Jennifer Loraine … Larkin Parker … Scott Cunningham … Simone Ward … Callista Gingrich … Brooke Nethercott of the CFTC … ODNI’s Olivia Coleman … Raychelle Santos … Sean Simons of Gates Ventures Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Giuseppe Macri and deputy editor Garrett Ross. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misstated U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Mike Waltz’s title.
| | A message from Anthropic: Fragmented data makes it hard to find critical interventions. Qualified Health used Claude, built by Anthropic, to screen over 1 million heart failure patients in the University of Texas Health System. Hospitals digitized records years ago. Claude makes them usable. | | | | | | | | Follow us on X | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Canada Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | |
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