Playbook PM: How the Trump campaign thinks it can win

Presented by Walmart: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington
Aug 25, 2020 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook PM

By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer, Garrett Ross and Eli Okun

Presented by

NEW: President DONALD TRUMP tweeted that he will nominate acting Homeland Security Secretary CHAD WOLF for the official role.

-- WITH 70 DAYS until the election, will the Senate hold hearings and confirm a new DHS secretary?

WELCOME TO DAY TWO of the Republican convention. WE SPOKE TO TRUMP CAMPAIGN MANAGER BILL STEPIEN this morning:

-- STEPIEN said TRUMP will be participating in all three sanctioned presidential debates. 51-second clip

-- HE SAID HE IS FINE with mail-in balloting -- as long as the states have done it before. Clip, and story by Caitlin Oprysko

-- STEPIEN ON HOW HE THINKS TRUMP CAN WIN: "We have a quiet confidence based on our pathway. … You want optionality in politics. You want optionality when you look at the map. The president holds true to the states he won in 2016. I'm asked all the time, how are you going to run the table in the Upper Midwest again? He just has to win one of three. He won with 306 electoral votes, not 270, not on the button. We have some cushion there.

"But I'd also talk about optionality and some near misses, right? He lost by 1,700 votes in New Hampshire, barely lost -- by a point and a half -- in Minnesota, by 2 points in Nevada, by 3 points in Maine. We were talking about Maine in the previous segment. Mitt Romney lost by 15. So we see optionality when we look at the map. We would see multiple pathways when we look at the map. And that's what you want when you look at a campaign." 54-second clip, courtesy of C-SPAN

NEXT UP … MARK MEADOWS. We will interview Trump's chief of staff Wednesday at 9 A.M. NRSC Executive Director KEVIN MCLAUGHLIN will also join to talk down-ballot races as part of our "PLUG IN WITH PLAYBOOK" series.

NIGHT TWO READING … CNN: "Melania Trump aims RNC speech at erasing memories of 2016," by Kate Bennett: "This time, the speech Trump will deliver a speech with reflections of her experiences over the last three and a half years, sprinkled with deeply personal anecdotes, a nod to history, a look at her proposed second-term agenda and a forceful push of support for her husband, a White House official familiar with the first lady's preparation told CNN.

"This speech has also not been vetted by anyone in the West Wing. But Trump has been intricately involved in the writing, editing and delivery of her RNC address, the source said, for which she once again shunned the help of professional speechwriters, relying instead on a senior aide to write the bulk of the content." CNN

TROLLING TRUMP … The DNC plans to go up with a new projection tonight and will also have mobile billboards driving by the Trump Hotel, the White House, the Mellon Auditorium and the RNC. The projection The billboards

-- SPEAKER NANCY PELOSI and Senate Minority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER will hold a press briefing Wednesday at noon, as part of a daily briefing the DNC is organizing.

Good Tuesday afternoon.

 

A message from Walmart:

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NOT SO FAST -- "FDA chief issues mea culpa for his plasma treatment claims," by Caitlin Oprysko: "FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn issued a mea culpa late Monday, conceding that he had overstated the benefits of convalescent plasma as a treatment of coronavirus at a press conference last weekend with President Donald Trump. …

"'I have been criticized for remarks I made Sunday night about the benefits of convalescent plasma. The criticism is entirely justified,' the commissioner said in a string of tweets. 'What I should have said better is that the data show a relative risk reduction not an absolute risk reduction.' While the therapy is considered safe, plasma has not yet been proven effective against the coronavirus." POLITICO

HUNT FOR A VACCINE -- "Elizabeth Warren, others seek details of Warp Speed co-chief Moncef Slaoui's contract," by WaPo's Christopher Rowland: "Democrats on Capitol Hill have asked an Alexandria consulting company for details about an unusual contract that has allowed the chief scientific adviser to President Trump's Operation Warp Speed to maintain personal investments and avoid making ethics disclosures of his holdings in pharmaceutical companies.

"In a letter Monday to Advanced Decision Vectors, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and two other lawmakers are asking the firm to explain its role in providing drug company executive Moncef Slaoui's services as the chief coronavirus vaccine adviser to the Trump administration for $1. By designating Slaoui a private, outside contractor, the administration has allowed Slaoui to avoid disclosure of extensive drug company investments that he accumulated as a former top executive at GlaxoSmithKline and as a partner in a large venture capital fund, Medicxi." WaPo

THE ECONOMY -- "American Airlines Plans 19,000 Job Cuts If Federal Aid Lapses," by Bloomberg's Mary Schlangenstein: "American Airlines Group Inc. will cut 19,000 workers if federal payroll aid expires as scheduled on Oct. 1, capping a 30% workforce reduction since the coronavirus pandemic began to torpedo travel demand.

"About 17,500 employees will be furloughed, meaning they are eligible to be called back when conditions improve, while 1,500 previously announced cuts to management staff will take effect, the airline said in an email Tuesday. American is the first major carrier to disclose the extent of shrinking operations to adjust to passenger numbers that are down 70% from last year." Bloomberg

FOR YOUR RADAR -- "Laura, now a hurricane, takes aim at U.S. Gulf Coast," by AP's Rebecca Santana in New Orleans and Jeff Martin in Marietta, Ga.: "Laura became a hurricane Tuesday shortly after entering the warm and deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, gathering strength on a path to hit the U.S. coastline as a major storm that could unleash a surge of seawater higher than a basketball hoop and swamp entire towns. The National Hurricane Center projected that Laura will become a Category 3 hurricane before landfall, with winds of around 115 mph (185 kph), capable of devastating damage."

 

INTRODUCING POLITICO MINUTES: These unprecedented times demand an unconventional approach to political news coverage. POLITICO Minutes is a new, interactive content experience that delivers the top takeaways you need to know in an easy-to-digest, swipeable format straight to your inbox. Get a breakdown of what we've learned so far, why it matters and what to watch for going forward. Sign up for POLITICO Minutes, launching at the 2020 Conventions.

 
 

IMMIGRATION FILES -- "How Trump's hard line against immigration could hurt him in Florida," by Sabrina Rodríguez: "Trump's anti-socialist messaging … has served as a reminder to Florida Republicans and Democrats alike that his administration has not granted temporary legal status to Venezuelans fleeing the humanitarian crisis brought on by Nicolás Maduro's regime, despite repeated calls from South Florida leaders and the Venezuelan exile community to do so.

"Allowing Venezuelans to live and work legally in the U.S. would be a clear political win for Trump and the GOP in Florida, but Republicans, former administration officials and Latin America analysts say it hasn't happened because of a conflict between two main groups: Florida Republicans hoping to deliver another win in 2020 in the state, and immigration hardliners trying to keep immigrants and asylum-seekers out of the United States. And so far, the immigration hawks have won the president's ear." POLITICO

ON RELIGION … GABBY ORR: "'Dangerous levels of contempt': Trump deploys a convention to attack Dems on religion": "He's waved a Bible in front of a shuttered church. He's pushed to reopen worship houses despite evidence of being coronavirus super spreaders. He's shouted, tweeted and whispered at every level that he'd support the aims of religious conservatives. And now President Donald Trump is using the 2020 Republican convention stage to make one last pitch: Please don't defect to Joe Biden.

"Facing signs of slippage in his appeal among religious voters who helped seal his victory in 2016, Trump is carving out a deliberate and vocal message this week to evangelicals and Catholics who may be tempted to stay home on Election Day due to frustrations over the faltering U.S. economy, ongoing coronavirus pandemic or recent Supreme Court losses. Through night after night of programming, the president's team hopes to remind religious Americans of the battles Trump has fought on numerous cultural fronts and scare them into believing their lives will irrevocably change if Democrats rise to power." POLITICO

AD WARS -- "'It's been Covid, Covid, Covid': Pro-Trump super PAC plans ad blitz on the economy," by Gabby Orr: "Even as voters cope with the ongoing blows from Covid-19, [America First Action] is betting that most Americans will still vote their pocketbooks this November — supporting the candidate they believe is best equipped to rebuild an economy that has been devastated by coronavirus-related shutdowns and faltering consumer confidence.

"Next week, the PAC will launch an $18.6 million ad buy across North Carolina, Florida, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania questioning Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden's plan to fix the economy." POLITICO

-- "Trump campaign spends big on criminal justice online ads," by Axios' Sara Fischer and Alayna Treene: "In an effort to lure voters around issues like race relations, the Trump campaign has poured big money into Facebook ads about criminal justice reform. It's a huge departure from his months-long campaign strategy of targeting hard-line supporters with ads discussing topics like the 'fake news' media and immigration. ...

"Top Republicans think that the election will hinge on four key issues — the economy, the coronavirus pandemic, China and race. ... Prior to George Floyd's death, the Trump campaign spent less than $50,000 on Facebook ads addressing criminal justice. Since two days after Floyd's death on May 25th, the campaign has poured nearly $6 million into Facebook ads about criminal justice, according to data from Bully Pulpit Interactive." Axios

@Bencjacobs: "Kanye West WILL NOT be in the ballot in MISSOURI. This is the 7th state that he has filed in where he did not qualify for the ballot. The other states are Wisconsin, Ohio, West Virginia, Illinois, Montana and New Jersey."

 

PREGAME THE PRIME-TIME RNC LINEUP WITH FOUR SQUARE : This isn't quite how we predicted the GOP convention would look back in January, but here we are. Time to make the most of it! Join Four Square host Eugene Daniels and top political journalists Tim Alberta, Laura Barrón-López and Ryan Lizza throughout convention week for a breakdown of the day's most significant political developments and the buzz surrounding the convention. Watch it live here.

 
 

LOOKING AHEAD … RYAN LIZZA: "It's Nikki Haley vs. Don Jr. for the soul of the GOP"

SECSTATE ABROAD -- "Pompeo in Sudan, top U.S. official to visit since uprising," by AP's Samy Magdy in Cairo: "U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrived in Sudan on Tuesday, the most senior U.S. official to visit the African country since last year's ouster of its autocratic leader, Omar al-Bashir. Pompeo is the first U.S. secretary of state to visit the African country since 2005, when Condoleezza Rice visited. …

"Pompeo and Sudanese officials discussed the normalization of ties between Sudan and Israel and the removal of the country from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism, officials from both countries said. Sudan's Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, however, urged the Trump administration to separate the normalization from the de-listing of Sudan, a government spokesman said." AP

HONG KONG LATEST -- "With Hacks and Cameras, Beijing's Electronic Dragnet Closes on Hong Kong," by NYT's Paul Mozur: "Hong Kong security forces are turning to harsher tactics as they close a digital dragnet on activists, pro-democracy politicians and media leaders. Their approaches — which in the past month have included installing a camera outside the home of a prominent politician and breaking into the Facebook account of another — bear marked similarities to those long used by the fearsome domestic security forces in mainland China.

"Not accustomed to such pressures, Hong Kong lawmakers and activists, and the American companies that own the most popular internet services there, have struggled to respond. Pro-democracy politicians have issued instructions to supporters on how to secure digital devices. Many have flocked to encrypted chat apps like Signal and changed their names on social media. Dogged by the global reach of the law, even people from Hong Kong living far away from the city worry." NYT

CAUGHT IN THE CROSSHAIRS -- "German Town Fears Ruin by U.S. Effort to Stop Russian Pipeline," by NYT's Melissa Eddy and Steven Erlanger in Sassnitz, Germany: "[T]he port, one of the last great infrastructure projects undertaken by the former East Germany, now finds itself caught up in a geopolitical competition between the United States and Russia, a clash that local officials and residents say is threatening the town and region with economic ruin.

"At issue are so-called secondary sanctions being proposed by powerful U.S. senators to target companies doing business with Russia and the Kremlin-controlled gas giant Gazprom to finish the pipeline, Nord Stream 2, which is 94 percent complete. The port would fall under the sanctions because of the role it plays supplying provisions to a Russian pipe-laying ship involved in the project. That sort of supporting work is specifically targeted by the proposed new sanctions." NYT

IN MEMORIAM -- "Gail Sheehy, Journalist, Author and Social Observer, Dies at 83," by NYT's Katharine Seelye: "Gail Sheehy, a journalist who plumbed the interior lives of public figures for clues to their behavior and examined societal trends as signposts of cultural change, died on Monday at a hospital in Southampton, N.Y. She was 83. Her daughter, Maura Sheehy, said the cause was complications of pneumonia.

"Gail Sheehy, a lively participant in New York's literary scene and a practitioner of creative nonfiction, studied anthropology with Margaret Mead. She applied those skills to explore the cultural upheaval of the 1960s and '70s and to gain psychological insights into the newsmakers she profiled — among them Hillary Clinton, Margaret Thatcher, Mikhail Gorbachev and both Presidents Bush."

WEDDING -- Justina Yee, associate VP at R Street Institute, and Ian Adams, executive director of the International Center for Law and Economics, got married this morning in a D.C. court, via Webex. They met at R Street. Pic

 

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Extra Crunch Tuesday: Five VCs discuss how no-code is going horizontal across the world’s industries

Extra Crunch Newsletter
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Tuesday, August 25, 2020 By Walter Thompson

Welcome to Extra Crunch Tuesday

Welcome to Extra Crunch Tuesday image

Image Credits: Malte Mueller / Getty Images

One of the reasons why there’s so much hype surrounding no-code/low-code software: we’ve been using it for a long time.

Years ago, I made a web site for a small business that included a reservation calendar, a shopping cart and a customer database. More recently, updates I make to centralized editorial calendar are propagated to my personal calendar, as well as a Slack channel.

Alex Wilhelm and Lucas Matney surveyed five VCs to get their sense of which industries no-code entrepreneurs are targeting.

Their responses help explain why low-code/no-code startup valuations have been growing and offer some useful context for recent investor enthusiasm.

Here’s who they spoke to:

  • Laela Sturdy, general partner at CapitalG
  • Raviraj Jain, partner at Lightspeed
  • Darian Shirazi, general partner at Gradient Ventures
  • S. Somasegar, managing director at Madrona Venture Group
  • Rajeev Batra, partner, Mayfield Fund

Our second investor survey today looks at how Chicago’s startup ecosystem is adapting in the COVID-19 era.

The region offers big-city amenities, a deep talent pool supported by higher education, lower costs and plenty of optimistic VCs, found Managing Editor Matt Burns.

Although the current downturn may have reduced local capital, investors said the Midwest may benefit as newly-remote workers relocate from pricier coastal tech hubs:

  • Guy Turner, partner, Hyde Park Venture Partners
  • Constance Freedman, founder and managing partner, Moderne Ventures
  • Katie McClain, partner, Energize Ventures
  • Bess Goodfellow, principal, Hyde Park Angels
  • Rachel Stillman, associate, 7WireVentures

There’s no paywall on the Chicago VC survey, so please share it widely.

Thanks very much for reading Extra Crunch; have a great week!

 

Walter Thompson
Senior Editor, TechCrunch
@yourprotagonist

Read more

Our 11 favorite companies from Y Combinator's S20 Demo Day: Part I

Our 11 favorite companies from Y Combinator's S20 Demo Day: Part I image

Image Credits: Bryce Durbin / TechCrunch

Yesterday, four members of our editorial team virtually attended Y Combinator’s demo day for its Summer 2020 cohort.

Based on how likely each startup seemed to succeed and how impressed they were with the creativity of their vision, our team rounded up 11 of the most-promising companies.

“We're not investors, so we're not pretending to sort the unicorns from the goats. But if what you need is a digest of some of the day's best companies to get a good taste of what founders are building, we have your back.”

Stay tuned: we’re publishing the rest of our demo day coverage this afternoon.

 

Read more

Join Twilio's Jeff Lawson for a live Q&A today at 2:30 pm EDT/11:30 am PDT

Sponsored by TechCrunch

We'll discuss the current IPO landscape, remote work and many other hot topics. Bring your questions!

Read more

Unity, JFrog, Asana, Snowflake and Sumo Logic file for IPOs in rapid-fire fashion

Unity, JFrog, Asana, Snowflake and Sumo Logic file for IPOs in rapid-fire fashion image

Image Credits: Nigel Sussman

The public markets are heating up again.

Last Friday, Alex Wilhelm looked at six startups that were poised to file for an IPO. Yesterday, five startups announced plans to go public:

  • Unity
  • JFrog
  • Asana
  • Snowflake
  • Sumo Logic

“For each company, we'll discuss what they do, how much they have raised, their initial IPO raise expectations and their financial performance. We'll wrap with valuation notes as we can,” he writes.

Read more

Earn the best backlinks with high-quality content and digital PR

Earn the best backlinks with high-quality content and digital PR image

Image Credits: Colin Hawkins / Getty Images

At the risk of being reductive: publishing high-quality content is the best way for a web site to rise in search results.

But hoping for a boost in organic traffic is as effective as praying for rain.

Instead of putting blind faith in SEO consultants or keeping an expensive PR firm on retainer, storytelling that’s based on the same data you’re using to develop products and services might help you connect with skeptical journalists like myself.

Read more

Red Antler's Emily Heyward explains how to get people obsessed with your brand

Red Antler's Emily Heyward explains how to get people obsessed with your brand image

Image Credits: Red Antler

As co-founder of branding company Red Antler, Emily Heyward has helped companies like Allbirds, Casper and Brandless define themselves for consumers.

She joined us for TechCrunch Early Stage for a discussion that will help set expectations (and create some guard rails) for entrepreneurs who want to foster a connection with skeptical audiences.

"Most people are stuck in their ways, so you really have to think about the problem you're solving for people," said Heyward.

Read more

How to raise your first VC fund

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Image Credits: Klaus Vedfelt / Getty Images

Charles Yu, a principal at Bling Capital, has quarterbacked investments in nine unicorns and steered more than $200 million to first-time fund managers.

His advice for investors raising their first fund: seek to understand the LP mentality, build trust with your investors and find ways to differentiate yourself.

“In an industry that only rewards top performers, be prepared to show why you are exceptional,” Yu advises.

Read more

Read more stories on TechCrunch.com

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Second Covid-19 cluster at Craigavon Area Hospital

Stephen Nolan has asked whether one ambulance worker's account of being turned away from a popular dining spot is a sign that "frontline health workers are now banned from restaurants".
 
 
     
   
     
  Aug 25, 2020  
     
 

Dear reader,

 

The main developments in the coronavirus pandemic in Northern Ireland on Tuesday centred on Craigavon Area Hospital. 

 

First on Tuesday morning, the Southern Health and Social Care Trust confirmed that 20 members of staff at the hospital are self-isolating after three of their colleagues tested positive for Covid-19. 

 

Then on Tuesday afternoon, in a further statement issued by the trust, it emerged that a second cluster of cases had been detected at the hospital, with five cancer patients diagnosed with Covid-19. The trust said 12 patients on the Haematology ward have been tested, with five of those testing positive. The ward is currently closed to admissions.

 

Meanwhile, a health professional at the hospital told the News Letter that two staff at Craigavon's Respiratory Emergency Department did not contract Covid-19 because they had been "partying". The professional said a statement released by the trust last week had given a "misleading" impression of the situation. 

 

Across Northern Ireland, 47 further cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed over the last 24 hours. Thankfully, there have been no further deaths related to the virus. 

 

Alistair Bushe,

Editor

 

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  Ramore restaurant row: Stephen Nolan wonders if health workers effectively banned from all restaurants  
     
  Stephen Nolan has asked whether one ambulance worker's account of being turned away from a popular dining spot is a sign that "frontline health workers are now banned from restaurants".  
     
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Coleraine and Glentoran European ties to be broadcast
 
Fans of Coleraine and Glentoran will be able to watch their team's Europa League first qualifying round ties this Thursday.
 
     
 
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Alliance health chief: A second shutdown of Northern Ireland would hurt us even more than first
 
Most people have welcomed the opportunity over the summer to resume social contact and social events, to re-open businesses, and to provide services face-to-face.
 
     
 
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Coronavirus in NI Live Blog: Positive coronavirus cases in NI highest since peak of pandemic
 
Welcome to our coronavirus live updates on Tuesday August 25
 
     
     
     
   
     
     
     
   
 
 
   
 
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