Reading the debt limit tea leaves

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May 08, 2023 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Eli Okun

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WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 26: U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks during a joint press conference with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol in the Rose Garden at the White House, April 26, 2023 in Washington, DC. President Biden is hosting President Yoon on his first visit to the United States as the two nations have reached a nuclear weapons agreement. (Photo by Win   McNamee/Getty Images)

In an indicator that he won’t back down, President Joe Biden is taking the debt ceiling fight straight to the backyard of a vulnerable House Republican. | Win McNamee/Getty Images

WHO’S AT DEFAULT — The debt limit meeting with President JOE BIDEN and the Big Four congressional leaders is tentatively scheduled for around 4 p.m. tomorrow, though the timing isn’t officially set yet, per Burgess Everett.

A breakthrough tomorrow looks unlikely, of course: Democrats and Republicans are so far apart that it’s surprising one room can even fit them all, as NYT’s Jim Tankersley previews. They haven’t even agreed on the need to negotiate itself, as Dems insist on a clean debt ceiling hike. “[E]ven small points of consensus could be hard to come by,” Tankersley writes.

On the contrary, everybody’s stepping up the fight. In an indicator that he won’t back down, Biden is taking it straight to vulnerable House Republicans the very next day: He’ll travel to the Hudson River Valley on Wednesday for an event in Rep. MIKE LAWLER’s (R-N.Y.) backyard, NBC’s Mike Memoli and Julie Tsirkin report. “[W]e are making sure their constituents are aware of the true nature of their priorities,” White House comms director BEN LaBOLT says of the front-line Republicans who voted for Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY’s spending cuts bill.

(Lawler doesn’t seem cowed: “My constituents agree that we cannot continue to sustain spending at these levels,” he says. “It’s part of the reason that I won.”)

And in a move shared first with Playbook, the White House is staffing up for this fight. ROB FRIEDLANDER has been detailed to the White House to serve as senior comms adviser for economic messaging, focusing on the debt limit. He’s most recently been comms director at OMB.

The conservative American Action Network is launching a new $250,000 ad campaign on D.C. cable TV this week blasting Biden for risking default and urging him to sit down at the negotiating table with congressional Republicans.

One hint of possible Democratic softening: A former administration official tells Semafor’s Jordan Weissmann that “Biden’s team might swallow a compromise if it only involved cuts to discretionary spending, which gets negotiated each year as part of the regular budget process. Among other things, that would take Biden’s climate programs off the chopping block.” (It’s unclear whether they’re speaking from actual knowledge of the White House mindset, though.)

On the flip side: NYT’s Margot Sanger-Katz and Alicia Parlapiano have a useful clicker laying out what the GOP’s proposed budget cuts could look like if they leave out defense, veterans’ health and border security, as many Republicans would like to do. All other agencies would have to lose the majority of their budgets — including cuts to popular programs ranging from air traffic control to cancer research.

Meanwhile, a government employees union is reaching for the break-glass option, suing Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN today to get the Biden administration not to comply with the debt limit law, which they call unconstitutional, per AP’s Christopher Rugaber and Fatima Hussein.

CONTEMPT CONTRETEMPS — House Foreign Affairs Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) warned Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN that he may hold him in contempt of Congress if State doesn’t provide a key classified cable warning about the Afghanistan pullout, NBC’s Courtney Kube and Rose Horowitch report. They’ve been battling over the document for months, but now McCaul has imposed a deadline of Thursday at 6 p.m.

Meanwhile, House Judiciary Chair JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) today threatened to hold Google in contempt for failing to provide all the documents he wants about its communications with the Biden administration, CNBC’s Lauren Feiner scoops. Other Big Tech companies have been more amenable to Judiciary’s demands as Jordan probes allegations of speech censorship. He set a new deadline for Alphabet (Google’s parent company) of May 22.

Good Monday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.

 

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ALL POLITICS

McCONNELL’S 2024 MAP — Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL gave CNN’s Manu Raju a detailed preview of his plans for flipping the chamber. Most notably, in addition to the three Democratic-held seats widely seen as most vulnerable (West Virginia, Montana, Ohio), McConnell adds Pennsylvania to his top tier of targets, as he roots for DAVID McCORMICK. Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona are a notch down, pending the outcome of primaries and candidate recruitment. Michigan’s open seat isn’t even mentioned on what sounds like a smaller map than some expected. And McConnell is firm that he’ll be playing hard in primaries to get electable nominees.

PRIMARY COLORS — Prince George’s County, Md., Executive ANGELA ALSOBROOKS is jumping into the Maryland Senate race this week, Time’s Eric Cortellessa scoops. She’s expected to line up several big early endorsements. The race is probably Alsobrooks vs. Rep. DAVID TRONE … vs. Rep. JAMIE RASKIN if he decides to run.

DARK MONEY MAKES THE WORLD GO ’ROUND — AP’s Trenton Daniel has a deep dive into how progressive GIGI SOHN’s FCC nomination was shot down — and in particular the influence of ad campaigns attacking her from unfettered dark-money groups like the American Accountability Foundation. The failure of Sohn’s nomination at the hands of Republicans and moderate Democrats “is the latest example of how organizations with political and financial agendas have been able to sway public opinion by deploying donations that are impossible to trace. It is also emblematic of how nominees’ missteps — even on matters wholly unrelated to their prospective jobs — can become fodder for attacks.”

DEMOCRACY WATCH — Almost all of the highest-profile proponents of false election fraud conspiracy theories lost their elections last fall — but six months out, many of them are regrouping, WaPo’s Matthew Brown reports in a rundown of 11 notable names. Some, like KARI LAKE and DOUG MASTRIANO, are weighing new bids for office. Others have found influence in non-elected roles, like KAROLINE LEAVITT at MAGA Inc. and LEE ZELDIN with a new PAC.

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

SEA CHANGE IN NEW JERSEY — Old-school South Jersey Democratic machine boss GEORGE NORCROSS, one of the most powerful people in the state, tells Dustin Racioppi that he’s mostly bowing out of the political game following major losses in the 2021 elections. “It is a ground-shifting moment in New Jersey politics — one that could reshape the state’s Democratic Party and change the way things get done in Trenton,” Dustin writes. Norcross now spends most of his time in Florida — though a STEVE SWEENEY gubernatorial run in 2025 could pull him off the sidelines.

LATEST IN BROWNSVILLE — 34-year-old GEORGE ALVAREZ was charged with manslaughter today after crashing his SUV into a crowd of mostly Venezuelan migrants in Brownsville, Texas, killing eight. The Brownsville resident “lost control after running a red light” and unsuccessfully tried to flee the scene, police say, but they don’t know yet whether it was intentional, per the AP.

CLIMATE FILES — “‘Over My Dead Body’: Backlash Builds Against $3 Trillion Clean-Energy Push,” by WSJ’s Jennifer Hiller in Lawrence, Kan.: “County-by-county battles are raging as wind and solar projects balloon in size, edge closer to cities and encounter mounting pushback in communities from Niagara Falls to the Great Plains and beyond. Projects have slowed. Even in states with a long history of building renewables, developers don’t know if they can get local permits or how long it might take.”

SCHOOL TIES — Happy national Teacher Appreciation Week: Teacher shortages have compelled the majority of states this year to propose wage increases for teachers, AP’s Marc Levy reports from Harrisburg, Pa. Both red and blue states are trying to improve pay and perks. “It’s not clear how far pay raises will go toward relieving the shortages, though, and some teachers say it is too little, too late to fix problems that are years in the making.”

AFTERNOON READ — “A police chief got rid of a neo-Nazi. Then came the hard part,” by WaPo’s Hannah Allam in Springfield, Ill.: “An Illinois police department’s year of reckoning shows the difficulties of fighting far-right extremism in law enforcement.”

 

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AMERICA AND THE WORLD

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — After months of frosty silence, the U.S. and China marked their highest-level diplomatic engagement of late today when U.S. Ambassador to China NICHOLAS BURNS met with Chinese Foreign Minister QIN GANG in Beijing, NYT’s David Pierson reports. The meeting was full of tense conversation, per the Chinese readout: Qin told Burns that while China wants to stabilize relations, the U.S. is to blame for undermining them, and the Biden administration needs to “reflect deeply.”

POWER PLAY — USAID Administrator SAMANTHA POWER is traveling to the Balkans this week to try to calm tensions between Serbia and Kosovo, AP’s Ellen Knickmeyer reports.

POLICY CORNER

STEPHEN MILLER’S LONG VICTORY — “Biden’s New Immigration Policy Cements End of Liberal Asylum Rules,” by WSJ’s Michelle Hackman: “Mr. Biden’s reversal reflects a broader political shift. In the three years that the U.S. employed Title 42, the pandemic-era measure that made it possible to turn away people seeking asylum at the southern border, lawmakers in both parties have grown increasingly comfortable with a future in which the decadeslong right to cross America’s border to seek refuge from persecution is no longer sacrosanct.”

At the Texas border, ahead of the end of Title 42 this week, a surge of migrants has already begun: Brownsville and El Paso have seen tens of thousands in the past month, largely from Venezuela, AP’s Rebecca Santana and Valerie Gonzalez report.

STAT OF THE DAY — Biden’s major expansion of the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program has erased student debt for nearly 610,000 borrowers, with another 6,000 on the way, CNN’s Katie Lobosco scoops. The Education Department tallies the debt forgiven at about $42 billion in total.

DO AS I SAY, NOT AS I DO — “GOP states trying to stop Biden’s student loan forgiveness push their own relief programs,” by NBC’s Adam Edelman

2024 WATCH

INCOMING — CHRIS CHRISTIE is “just days away” from deciding whether to jump into the presidential race, he tells The Dispatch. And his campaign would take on the frontrunner way more than anyone else has: It “would look like a direct, frontal challenge to DONALD TRUMP,” he says.

THE AGE-OLD QUESTION — “‘My career of 280 years’: Biden jokes off 2024 age concerns,” by AP’s Seung Min Kim: “As Biden, the oldest president in U.S. history, embarks on his reelection campaign, he is increasingly musing aloud about his advanced age, cracking self-deprecating jokes and framing his decades in public life as a plus, hoping to convince voters his age is an asset rather than a vulnerability. In short, he’s trying to own it.”

 

GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGSITER HERE.

 
 

CONGRESS

DEPT. OF WISHFUL THINKING — In the wake of another Texas massacre, Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER is calling a special caucus meeting for Senate Dems on Thursday to discuss gun control legislation.

KNOWING TONY GONZALES — The Texas Tribune’s Matthew Choi profiles the maverick Republican, who aspires to be a pragmatist but has also made plenty of enemies within his own party. Gonzales, who plays “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington” on loop in his office, isn’t backing down: He says he’s focused on accomplishing things in Congress and doesn’t mind punching back at enemies.

As for a primary challenge, “I’m going to kick their ass no doubt, but it’s going to cost me time, money, energy, effort,” Gonzales says. “Instead of fending off against the Democrats here, I have to go drown crazy Republicans.”

THE WHITE HOUSE

EATING HIS CAKE AND HAVING IT TOO — First lady JILL BIDEN is trying to get the president to eat more fish and vegetables as part of a healthier diet ahead of a grueling reelection campaign, Axios’ Alex Thompson reports. Biden, whose tastes run more to ice cream, pasta and orange Gatorade, is resistant.

PLAYBOOKERS

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Brandt Anderson is now a senior policy adviser at Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck. He most recently was a national security adviser for Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), and is a Ted Cruz, Jim Banks and Jackie Walorski alum.

TRANSITIONS — Phoebe Ferraiolo is now deputy comms director for the Senate Appropriations Committee under Vice Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine). She previously was VP at Cogent Strategies. … Sonal Majmudar is now a partner with Mayer Brown. She previously was international tax counsel at the IRS. …

Ken Lisaius will be SVP of comms at the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association. He previously has been VP of public affairs and comms at CLEAR. … Brandon Audap is now a principal at Monument Advocacy. He previously was director of policy and government affairs at JinkoSolar.

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California Today: What to know about California’s boosted water allocations

For the first time since 2006, the state's major water conveyance system will deliver all the water it has been asked to supply.
Author Headshot

By Soumya Karlamangla

California Today, Writer

It's Monday. What to know about California's boosted water allocations. Plus, Los Angeles can't quit the mountain lion P-22.

California's San Luis Reservoir was at 99 percent of total capacity last month. The reservoir serves both the State Water Project and the federal Central Valley Project.Ken James/California Department of Water Resources

California's reservoirs are filled to the brim. Our snowpack is epic. And, in what feels like a near-miraculous turn of events, less than 8 percent of the state is still considered to be in a drought.

Another perk of this water bounty: The two biggest water systems that send clean water throughout California will both, for the first time in nearly two decades, deliver all of the water requested by cities, farms and businesses. This is great news for a state that was mired in extreme drought and struggling to survive off reduced water supplies for years.

"I think everybody is thrilled," said Laura Ramos, interim director of research and education at the California Water Institute at Cal State Fresno.

Why do these water systems matter?

As you're well aware, it doesn't rain equally across California. So the state has storage and conveyance systems that capture water in its precipitation-blessed far north and northeast regions and transport it through a series of reservoirs, dams, rivers and aqueducts to the rest of the state.

The two largest systems are the State Water Project, which provides clean water for 27 million Californians and 750,000 acres of farmland, and the federal Central Valley Project, which primarily serves the state's behemoth agricultural industry. These systems are crucial for the running water we have in our homes year-round.

But in recent, exceptionally dry years, the State Water Project, which is managed by the California Department of Water Resources, and the Central Valley Project, which is operated by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, could dole out only small allocations of water. In 2021 and 2022, the State Water Project provided just 5 percent of the water requested, prompting water districts across the state to impose conservation measures and draw on their own stored water to meet demand.

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Last month Gov. Gavin Newsom announced that, thanks to a historically wet winter, the State Water Project would begin providing all of the water requested, for the first time since 2006. The Central Valley Project will also deliver 100 percent of its water allocations to most regions it serves, for the first time since 2017.

"It's just been a phenomenally wet year," said Jay Lund, vice director of the Center for Watershed Sciences at the University of California, Davis.

What impact will this have?

This provides some immediate relief to farmers, and it means that water supplies are generally less tight statewide — but "it's not a free-for-all," said Rebecca Kimitch, a spokeswoman for the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California.

For two straight years, she said, the district received just 5 percent of the water it requested from the State Water Project — an "absolutely unheard-of" allocation level that forced the district not just to impose tight water-use restrictions but also to draw down water from the state's reservoirs and groundwater basins. (In a normal year, the State Water Project provides about 30 percent of the district's water.)

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So this year's bountiful water allocations need to be used to replenish those drained resources, Kimitch said. "We've got a pretty big hole to fill," she said.

Water agencies and municipalities must continually plan for drier years by recharging groundwater and other water storage when they can, Lund told me. There's no guarantee that this coming winter will be as rainy as the last, and the state is prone to big swings in water conditions. And while conditions in California were greatly improved this year, the Colorado River, a critical source of water for our state, is still shrinking.

"The drought might be over, but water scarcity is not," Lund said. "Basically, every year water managers have to be prepared for both flood and drought."

He added: "That's just what nature gives us here, and climate change looks like it's going to be making more of that."

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If you read one story, make it this

Angelenos are still looking for ways to keep the memory of P-22 alive.

Enjoy all of The New York Times in one subscription — the original reporting and analysis, plus puzzles from Games, recipes from Cooking, product reviews from Wirecutter and sports journalism from The Athletic. Experience it all with a New York Times All Access subscription.

Kamilah Moore, a lawyer who is chair of the California reparations task force, and Amos Brown, the vice chair, at its meeting on Saturday.Jason Henry for The New York Times

The rest of the news

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • Land back: In the 1950s, the city of Los Angeles displaced hundreds of Latino families from the land currently occupied by Dodgers Stadium. Now, descendants are seeking land reparations.
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
  • Wildfires displace Indigenous groups: More than a century ago, European settlers barred Indigenous communities from practicing cultural burning as a means to manage wildfire risk. Now, larger and more severe wildfires are displacing Indigenous people from their ancestral homes, The Los Angeles Times reports.
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • U.C. Davis stabbings: The 21-year-old former U.C. Davis student who was arrested in connection with a series of stabbings that rocked the Davis community pleaded not guilty to murder charges on Friday, The Associated Press reports.
  • Chico shooting: A 17-year-old girl was killed and five other people were wounded in a shooting at a party near California State University in Chico early Saturday, The Associated Press reports.
Tourists take in the sights at Moonstone Beach along the bluffs.Jeff Clark for The New York Times

Where we're traveling

Today's tip comes from Linda Robertson, who recommends Cambria along Highway 1 on the Central Coast:

"Moonstone Beach in Cambria is lovely — a nice easy stroll along the oceanfront boardwalk. You can spot whales seasonally, sea birds and just enjoy the beauty of the landscape. The quaint downtown has many nice restaurants and shops. The Cambria Pines Lodge is a beautiful historic place to stay with great accommodations and beautiful grounds; nice restaurant with great food. You can easily take small side trips to Morro Bay or visit the Piedras Blancas beach area just north of San Simeon, where elephant seals call 'home' while not out at sea. You can view them year-round. We visit several times/year. Any season is great."

Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com. We'll be sharing more in upcoming editions of the newsletter.

Tell us

My colleague Jill Cowan reported on the enduring fame of P-22, a mountain lion that became an icon for Angelenos.

While there have been plenty of famous domesticated animals, we want to hear about any wild animals that became celebrities to you. Did you have a bird, bear or deer in your community that you got attached to? Tell us about it and why you became a fan. Email us at CAtoday@nytimes.com with your suggestions.

Illustrations by Lucinda Rogers

And before you go, some good news

The New York Times asked students around the country what they think is the best part about being a kid. They answered: freedom and independence, hanging out with friends, dreaming about the future and more.

Here's what Roy, a high schooler in Los Angeles, shared:

"I believe that the years that pass by when you are a teenager are the most eventful and free years of your life. It's the time in your life when you are surrounded by the least problems and responsibilities. Yes, you do have to wake up every day and go to school, but even that is something you should be grateful and happy for. It's an environment where you are able to interact and connect with your friends. That isn't something you will have once you turn into an adult. Personally, I am able to show my true self when I'm around my friends, and school allows me to be that on a daily basis. I would never sacrifice these amazing aspects of being a teenager for even a split second as an adult."

Thanks for reading. I'll be back tomorrow. — Soumya

Briana Scalia and Johnna Margalotti contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.

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