The tide turns on Scalise

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Oct 12, 2023 View in browser
 
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By Rachael Bade and Garrett Ross

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JUST IN — Federal prosecutors have charged Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) and his wife, NADINE, with acting as unregistered foreign agents for Egypt. The new allegation has been added to the Menendezes’ multicount Manhattan corruption indictment. More from AP

Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) arrives to speak with reporters after he was nominated by House Republicans to be Speaker of the House on Capitol Hill on Oct. 11, 2023. Behind him is his wife, Jennifer Scalise.

Despite securing the formal nomination to become the next speaker, Steve Scalise still faces a tough task of winning the gavel. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

SCALISE’S MOMENTUM PROBLEM — Not 24 hours after House Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE clinched the nomination to be speaker, the tide appears to be turning on the Louisiana Republican. This morning, several lawmakers have come out and said that they’ll back JIM JORDAN over their own nominee for the gavel.

— Rep. CHIP ROY (R-Texas) was on GLENN BECK’s radio program saying a lot of members are concerned Scalise isn’t up for the job because of his cancer diagnosis. He added that he’s also committed to helping Jordan get the votes to lead.

“We need a trajectory change,” Roy said, decrying “the next-man-up mentality” and calling for a speaker “who's not really of the swamp.”

— Rep. KEITH SELF, another Texas Republican, echoed that in a tweet. “While I had hoped to support the Republican Conference nominee for Speaker, it has become evident that all the agreements and Rules with the former Speaker are null and void… Therefore, I will be casting my vote on the House Floor for Jim Jordan.”

— Freedom Caucus leader SCOTT PERRYtweeted that “no matter what happens, I will never vote for the status quo” — seemingly joining Scalise opponents in suggesting that the majority leader is a KEVIN McCARTHY clone in terms of governing strategy and priorities. (Perry hasn’t said, however, how he’ll vote on Scalise specifically.)

Meanwhile, McCarthy took a not-so-veiled swipe at Scalise this morning. When ABC News’ Rachel Scott asked him about the leader’s prospects, McCarthy said his former No. 2 has a “big hill” to climb — and suggested Scalise had inflated his support in the conference before the nomination vote.

“He told a lot of people he would be at 150 and he wasn’t there,” he said.

“The comments are the latest sign of discord between McCarthy, Scalise and their respective camps,” as Jordain Carney writes. “Scalise backed McCarthy’s speakership throughout his turbulent nine-month run. But some of McCarthy’s backers remain wary of his longtime rival taking over the conference and got frustrated by how quickly Scalise jumped into the race to succeed him.”

We’ve also spoken to a number of senior Republicans this morning who privately expressed pessimism that Scalise will ever get there. The concern is that at this point, more Republicans are coming out against him than come out for him. And right now, they’re not sure what he can do to change that dynamic.

Scalise is convening a GOP conference meeting as we speak to see if he can stem the bleeding. But his problem is that sharks are circling — and his foes smell blood in the water. If goes down, a number of other ambitious lawmakers are hoping that they can rise in his stead to become speaker themselves.

Allies of Jordan still see a path for the Ohio hard-liner to rally the conference. Others have been buttonholing House Majority Whip TOM EMMER about leading. And still a third crop of lawmakers are increasingly looking to empower PATRICK McHENRY with new authority so he can operate as speaker himself.

The big question right now is, what does Scalise do if he can’t turn things around? We’re told by his allies that he is hoping members will give him time to bring members together, but with another government funding deadline looming in a few weeks and war raging in the Middle East, there’s not a lot of patience.

Increasingly, we’re hearing from members who want to have this fight out in public, encouraging Scalise to just go to the floor to hash things out. That’s what McCarthy did when he tried to get the votes last January. But there’s no guarantee that will help his situation.

Follow along with our Hill team on Inside Congress Live for all the latest

Good Thursday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop us a line at rbade@politico.com and gross@politico.com.

 

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THE LATEST ON ISRAEL — Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN met with Israeli President BENJAMIN NETANYAHU this morning and the two later appeared together at a news conference, where Blinken underscored the level of support the U.S. will provide to Israel in the conflict.

“The message that I bring to Israel is this: You may be strong enough on your own to defend yourself, but as long as America exists, you will never, ever have to,” Blinken said. More from Matt Berg

Horrifying read: “Hamas took at least 64 captives into Gaza, visual evidence suggests,” by WaPo’s Evan Hill, Joyce Sohyun Lee, Sarah Cahlan and Gabòr Friesen: “Among them were 49 people who appeared to be civilians — nine of them children — and 11 who appeared to be members of the Israeli military, according to The Post’s review. In four cases, it was not possible to determine whether the captive was a civilian or soldier.”

On the Hill: Sens. BEN CARDIN (D-Md.) and JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) said in a statement today that they intend to offer a resolution expressing support for Israel when the Senate returns next week. More from Anthony Adragna

Pence hits Trump: MIKE PENCE this morning took DONALD TRUMP to task over the former president’s criticism of Netanyahu and praise of Hezbollah at a campaign rally last night. “This is no time for any former president or any other American leader to be sending any message other than America stands with Israel,” Pence said on a New Hampshire radio station.

“Hezbollah aren’t smart, they’re evil,” Pence said. “But the former president also said when Russia invaded Ukraine in a similar, unprovoked, unconscionable invasion a year-and-a-half ago, he said VLADIMIR PUTIN was a genius.” More from Adam Wren

Afternoon listen: Israeli Ambassador to Berlin RON PROSOR said the Western world must stand with Israel as it fights the “bloodthirsty animals” of Hamas. Speaking to POLITICO’s transatlantic “Power Play” podcast, he added, “I have to say that we appreciate President [JOE] BIDEN and the United States of America who sent aircraft carriers, a quite clear symbol, and airplanes to the region, giving a clear signal to Iran. It has to think twice if it really wants to escalate here.” Listen and subscribe here

THE ECONOMY

INFLATION NATION — Inflation slightly surpassed expectations again in September, leaving the issue squarely on the plate for Fed Chair JEROME POWELL as the central bank continues its fight to tamp down rising costs for consumers.

The details, via CNBC’s Jeff Cox: “The consumer price index, a closely followed inflation gauge, increased 0.4% on the month and 3.7% from a year ago, according to a Labor Department report Thursday. That compared with respective Dow Jones estimates of 0.3% and 3.6%. Headline inflation increased 0.6% in August.”

Meanwhile, Hamas’ deadly attack against Israel and the ongoing conflict in the region “threatens to upend the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation just as the central bank was making solid progress in curbing price spikes,” our colleague Victoria Guida writes.

“The Fed’s concern is that higher energy costs could push up prices elsewhere, from plane fares to industries heavily reliant on shipping. Gas prices — a central focus of the Biden administration’s messaging around improvements in inflation — also make up a sizable portion of consumer budgets and rising costs at the pump could make people more pessimistic about the possibility of more price increases. That’s a situation the Fed wants to avoid as it tries to keep inflation from becoming entrenched in people’s minds.”

Related read: “Social Security benefits will increase by 3.2% in 2024 as inflation moderates,” by AP’s Fatima Hussein

 

GROWING IN THE GOLDEN STATE: POLITICO California is growing, reinforcing our role as the indispensable insider source for reporting on politics, policy and power. From the corridors of power in Sacramento and Los Angeles to the players and innovation hubs in Silicon Valley, we're your go-to for navigating the political landscape across the state. Exclusive scoops, essential daily newsletters, unmatched policy reporting and insights — POLITICO California is your key to unlocking Golden State politics. LEARN MORE.

 
 

2024 WATCH

RHETORICAL RE-RUNS — Trump’s recent rhetoric on immigration is a return to some of the same trends as his previous presidential runs, which is “prompting widespread criticism and denunciations of racism and xenophobia from immigrant and civil rights groups,” who warn that Trump’s comments could “inspire violence against minorities,” WaPo’s Marianne LeVine and Meryl Kornfield write. “Trump’s recent comments, coming as President Biden has struggled to contain an increase in illegal crossings at the Southern border, reflect the ex-president’s effort to put the border and immigration at the forefront of his bid to return to the White House.”

ALL POLITICS

THE WILL-SHE-WON’T-SHE — The clamor over whether newly appointed Sen. LAPHONZA BUTLER will enter the already-crowded race to permanently fill the seat of Sen. DIANNE FEINSTEIN (D-Calif.) continues, with her latest comments on the situation coming to the AP: “I’m going to be honest, I’m not considering very much at this point,” she said, per Michael Blood.

Meanwhile, there is a growing chorus of political insiders in the state who want to see Butler run for governor in 2026, per California Playbook. “Speculation about the governor’s race has picked up among insiders and Sacramento operatives, and now it nearly rivals Butler’s more pressing decision about the Senate. California’s sprawling networks of unions frequently play queen and kingmakers in state elections. Should Butler skip a crowded Senate contest and aim for the state office instead, her history and deep labor connections could scramble the stiff competition for union backing overnight.”

TRUMP CARDS

THE GEORGIA INVESTIGATION — As the sprawling RICO case against Trump and his associates unfolds in Georgia, many of those who stand trial are turning to donations, which “could determine whether they choose to fight their charges or make plea deals,” NYT’s Richard Fausset and Danny Hakim write. “Nearly all of the 18 defendants in the case are counting on donations to help with their legal fees in a case that will take months, if not years, to fully resolve. That includes the former president himself, who has raked in millions of dollars from small donors through his political action committee, Save America.”

 

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THE ECONOMY

IN CASE YOU WERE WONDERING — “The Federal Deficit Is Even Bigger Than It Looks,” by WSJ’s Andrew Duehren and Alana Pipe: “The gap between spending and revenue for fiscal year 2023, which ended on Sept. 30, was $1.7 trillion, the Congressional Budget Office projected ahead of the official Treasury Department figures. That would be a roughly $300 billion widening in the shortfall from fiscal year 2022. But the gap was actually much larger. That is because of the odd way President Biden’s attempt to broadly cancel student debt shows up in budget figures.”

POLICY CORNER

FOR YOUR RADAR — “Pressure mounts on Education Department to penalize antisemitism on campus,” by Bianca Quilantan: “The latest wave of activism is putting pressure on the Education Department to release a proposal — one twice delayed by the Biden administration — that could force university leaders to referee pro-Palestinian advocacy and discrimination against Jewish people. It would potentially force college administrators to investigate claims of discrimination against ethnic groups or risk losing federal money, making it harder for them to stay out of debates about campus protests.”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

RED VS. BLUE CHECK — “As Red States Curb Social Media, Did Montana’s TikTok Ban Go Too Far?” by NYT’s Natasha Singer, Sapna Maheshwari and David McCabe: “Focusing on issues like giving parents control over their children’s online activities and stopping online content moderation, the states have significantly outpaced their Democratic counterparts in setting rules that tech companies have called aggressive and legally dubious.”

PLAYBOOKERS

OUT AND ABOUT — The Barbara Bush Foundation for Family Literacy hosted its 2023 National Celebration of Reading at the Kennedy Center last night. Featured speakers included first lady Jill Biden, Cheryl Strayed, Steven Rowley, Rebecca Yarros, Helena Andrews-Dyer and Jeff Nussbaum. Biden spoke about how “few skills are as essential to democracy” as reading and emphasized the importance of literacy in building engaged and informed citizens. Guests enjoyed a pre-program cocktail reception in the JFK Gallery followed by a buffet-style dinner, including a lettuce wrap bar and a Peking duck station. SPOTTED: Andrew Roberts, Doro Bush Koch, Saudi Ambassador Reema Bandar Al Saud, Mike and Kristi Rogers, Ashley Davis, Jean Becker, Max Angerholzer, Lori Wachs, David Risher, Jonathan Capehart, Oliver James, Sam and Lee LeBlond, Maureen Orth, Franc D’Ambrosio and Brian Boitano.

TRANSITION — Victoria Van de Vate is now director of government affairs at the National Association of County and City Health Officials. She previously managed federal affairs at the Urban Institute.

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California Today: New songs for our California soundtrack

The playlist includes about 20 new tracks recommended by readers.
Author Headshot

By Soumya Karlamangla

California Today, Writer

It's Thursday. We're adding new songs to our California soundtrack. Plus, a federal appeals court says the state's ban on high-capacity ammunition magazines will remain on the books for now.

Spencer Gabor

I'm planning a road trip this weekend along California's coast, and I already know what I'll be listening to for many hours in the car.

The California soundtrack is a project of this newsletter that tries to capture all of the Golden State in music. Our sprawling playlist is a work in progress, based largely on your recommendations for songs spanning the past century that in some way reflect this complex and vast state.

Today I'm adding a few dozen new tracks to the mix.

Among them are "Super Hyphy" by Keak da Sneak (2005), "Camarillo Brillo" by Frank Zappa and the Mothers of Invention (1973) and "Bakersfield" by Social Distortion (2011).

You can peruse the full song list here — the latest additions are in bold — or listen here.

As always, feel free to email your own song recommendation and a few lines about why you think it deserves inclusion to CAToday@nytimes.com. Please include your name and the city where you live.

Here, lightly edited, are some thoughts readers have shared about their choices:

"San Francisco Knights" by People Under the Stairs (1998)

"The infinitely catchy refrain of this song says it all: 'On a warm San Francisco night ….' L.A.-based People Under the Stairs hit the nail on the head — what could be better than cruising San Francisco on a warm late-summer evening with your friends? A warm breeze and orange sunset on the Ocean Beach boardwalk; bonfires and laughter dotting the landscape; strolling the streets of the Mission, taking in the sights and smells and vibrancy of the city and all its people; heading up to Twin Peaks or any of the many lookout spots to see the twinkling lights as night falls. This is paradise on earth, and People Under the Stairs capture the magical essence of the City by the Bay." — Henry DeRuff, San Francisco

"California" by Manfred Mann's Earth Band (1978)

"I left my little life in Ohio and moved to California for all its beauty, opportunities and freedom in 1978. I think the music is beautiful, and the lyrics are a very good reflection of how others feel about someone leaving them for California." — Gundy Rettke, Seaside

"Santa Cruz" by the Thrills (2003)

"This is the single off their album 'So Much for the City,' which is itself like a homage to a road trip through California. Whenever I have doubts about California, I cue up this upbeat album with its silly lyrics and imagine experiencing the state for the first time. The inane refrain is sticky: 'Santa Cruz, you're not that far.'" — Irwin Speizer, Carmel

"Surfer Joe" by the Surfaris (1963)

"Joe comes from 'down in Doheny,' wins a surf meet in Huntington Beach, becomes a Marine at Pendleton and gets busted surfing the Trestles. Can't get much more California than that!" — Daniel Nowak, Bernalillo, N.M.

"City of Angels" by Bill Withers (1976)

"From one of our greatest songwriters — Bill Withers is able to capture the hope and dreams those of us who move here hold. As a fellow transplant from West Virginia this holds a little extra meaning." — Blair Lord, Monrovia

"Goodnight, California" by Kathleen Edwards (2008)

"California has been our home for 16 years and, like Kathleen, we are Canadian. This wonderfully moody and atmospheric song places you, as Kathleen sings, 'sitting in this corner bar' like so many in small towns across the beautiful Golden State." — Fred Abbott, San Francisco

"Pink Pony Club" by Chappell Roan (2023)

"'Pink Pony Club,' a recent song by Chappell Roan, is about a young woman who moves from her conservative upbringing in Tennessee to Los Angeles to dance in a queer nightclub in West Hollywood. Her mother is horrified by her daughter's life choices. And while the protagonist is partially apologetic, she is having too much fun dancing in her heels to return to her home state.

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As a recent immigrant here, I find so much of the song relatable (save for dancing in a nightclub). It's about discovering where you belong, where you are free, and breaking free of familial tradition, and of course celebrating California as a promised land for all that. I moved here from Ontario, Canada, last year, and my 6-year-old daughter and I sing along to the song as if it were about our move to California, and finding our metaphoric dance club. The irony is my daughter will one day go searching for her version of the Pink Pony Club, and it may not be in California." — Joshua Errett, Oakland

Gain unlimited access to The Times — with just one subscription. Independent reporting. Recipes. Games. Product reviews. Personalized sports journalism. Enjoy it all with an introductory offer.

A custom-made semi-automatic hunting rifle with a high-capacity detachable magazine is displayed at TDS Guns in Rocklin.Rich Pedroncelli/Associated Press

The rest of the news

  • A panel of 11 judges from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit has put on hold a lower court's ruling that California's ban on high-capacity ammunition magazines was unconstitutional, allowing time for the state to appeal, The Los Angeles Times reports.
  • California has become the first state to ban the use of the term "excited delirium," used to describe someone who becomes aggressive or distressed from mental illness or stimulant use, as a cause of death.
  • Gov. Gavin Newsom signed bills that allow affordable housing to be built on land belonging to nonprofit colleges and religious institutions, bypassing most local zoning and environmental review regulations, The Associated Press reports.

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Southern California

  • Two men who were sexually abused by a teacher when they were boys in the 1990s won a $135 million judgment against a Southern California school district and the abuser.

Central California

  • A man who was arrested in connection with a possible antisemitic hate crime at a Fresno bakery may have been involved in vandalizing a synagogue, The Los Angeles Times reports.
  • The California Fish and Game Commission voted unanimously to grant protections to the Inyo rock daisy, which grows only near Death Valley National Park, after a public outcry over mining operations nearby, The Los Angeles Times reports.

Northern California

A view of Mendocino village from the Mendocino Overlook.Lucille Lawrence for The New York Times

Where we're traveling

Today's tip comes from JM Sorrell, who lives in Northampton, Mass.:

"In the early 1990s, I lived in San Francisco for three years.

My favorite place to visit includes the drive itself. It's up the 101 to Cloverdale, then the 128 to Mendocino County. Small wineries and redwood forests on a magical drive that ends oceanside. South to Elk and stay oceanside in a cottage there. Shopping and cafes in Mendocino as well as a visit to the art school to see what's for sale. Return trip to San Francisco? Route 1 along the Pacific Ocean as long as possible, then cut back over to 101 in Marin County.

Who needs to leave Northern California when there is so much beauty?"

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Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com. We'll be sharing more in upcoming editions of the newsletter.

Tell us

Today we're asking about love: not whom you love but what you love about your corner of California.

Email us a love letter to your California city, neighborhood or region — or to the Golden State as a whole — and we may share it in an upcoming newsletter. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.

A rally in support of the Supreme Court's ruling in favor of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, in San Diego in 2020.Sandy Huffaker/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

And before you go, some good news

Lizbeth Sanchez Olivera knew she wanted to pursue medicine from the moment she first laid eyes on an anatomy book.

An undocumented immigrant from Mexico, Sanchez Olivera came to the United States with her family at 3 years old. She fell in love with medicine at a young age and soon dreamed of becoming the first member of her family to attend college and earn a Ph.D.

But her journey to higher education was often marked by adversity: Between paying tuition with no financial aid and caring for her mother, who became ill while she was in college, Sanchez Olivera sometimes considered quitting.

In 2012, however, the tides changed. The U.S. enacted the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals policy, known as DACA, authorizing immigrant children to work and study in the U.S. without risk of deportation. With that boost, Sanchez Olivera was able to finish her degree, earn a laboratory internship and write a study in a prominent medical journal.

Today, roughly 10 years later, Sanchez Olivera is working on her doctorate at Cedars-Sinai Hospital in L.A. She's well on her way to that white coat. "You just have to keep on going," she told ABC News in an interview. "When we think that it's the hardest, you're almost there."

Thanks for reading. I'll be back tomorrow. — Soumya

Maia Coleman, Briana Scalia and Kellina Moore contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.

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