Playbook PM: Will Biden’s big oil move really ease gas prices?

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Nov 23, 2021 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

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It's official: The U.S. said today it will tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in an attempt to drive down gas prices, part of a coordinated effort with China, India, Japan, South Korea and the U.K. More from CNBC

— But Bloomberg's Devika Krishna Kumar and Sheela Tobben have a somewhat skeptical piece reporting that "it's hard to say whether households will actually see much — if any — reprieve in time to prevent a brutally expensive holiday travel season." Among the reasons: (1) It will take several weeks to get the oil; (2) markets had already priced in this possibility; (3) we don't yet know what types of crude will come; and (4) peeved OPEC+ officials could negate the impact by halting their own production expansion.

— Though the White House knew it might not have a big effect, officials thought it was among the best of their limited options — and that coordinating with other countries would have more of an impact, report CNN's Kate Sullivan and Betsy Klein.

— The move also places President JOE BIDEN in a tricky messaging spot, forced to pump more oil into the economy right now even as he calls on the world to move away from oil in the next several years. WaPo's Annie Linskey writes that his efforts to bolster short-term oil production are rankling environmentalists, who warn of undercutting climate goals. Though the Biden administration says it can do both, the "conundrum illustrates the challenge facing the United States and other countries trying to shift away from fossil fuels: The near-term needs of their economies, and the pressures of domestic politics, still require cheap oil and gas."

Bloomberg's Steven Dennis notes that part of the funding for the bipartisan infrastructure deal came from selling off some oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

The shadow president isn't mollified. In a statement that will surely be parsed for Build Back Better implications, Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) today described the SPR move as "an important policy Band-Aid," but called on Biden to change his mind on the Keystone XL pipeline and "not jeopardize America's energy security in the near term."

New on the schedule: The White House said this morning that Energy Secretary JENNIFER GRANHOLM will join press secretary JEN PSAKI at today's briefing, per pooler Scott Bixby. Reminder: Biden is delivering remarks on the economy and prices at 2 p.m.

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SUPPLY CHAIN OF FOOLS — Oil prices are perhaps the highest-profile example of the country's (and world's) supply chain/inflation woes. But there's plenty more to worry about. Two cool interactive features published today break down what's really breaking down:

NBC's Phil McCausland examines how supply-chain disruptions, backlogs and rising prices are wreaking havoc in the market for seven items from sweatpants to wheelchairs to chicken tenders.

— Bloomberg puts it bluntly: "Every Step of the Global Supply Chain Is Going Wrong — All at Once"

SIGN OF THE TIMES — Dollar Tree said today that most of its prices will rise to $1.25 by the first quarter of next year, per CNN. The company said it wasn't a reaction to inflation or other short-term conditions (but at least one analyst wasn't convinced).

ADJUST YOUR NARRATIVES — Here's the best economic news of the day for Democrats: The Joint Committee on Taxation revised its estimate of how the Build Back Better bill would affect tax rates. It now says the legislation would raise millionaires' average tax rate by 3.2 percentage points in 2022, not lower it. The original finding that Democrats would be cutting rich people's taxes had handed Republicans a potent attack line in recent days, but the JCT now says it was just a calculation error.

Good Tuesday afternoon.

 

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

 
 

POLITICS ROUNDUP

ANNALS OF INFLUENCE — Forget K Street offices. POLITICO's stalwart lobbying reporters Hailey Fuchs and Emily Birnbaum have a fun look at more than 20 townhouses they've identified around Capitol Hill that house business groups and other aspiring legislative influencers. The townhouses offer more casual (and cheaper) event spaces to schmooze lawmakers and Hill staff. And "after nearly two years of crickets, the townhouse lobbyist fundraising scene is now showing signs of life." Plus details on the value of various lobbying outfits' townhouses

FROM 30,000 FEET — WSJ's Michael Bender, Alexa Corse and Joshua Jamerson take a broad look at an extraordinary dynamic in American politics: DONALD TRUMP's big lie about the 2020 election has elevated concerns about voter fraud into a litmus test for the entire Republican Party. From the local level on up, the ramifications have reverberated throughout the nation's political system — even as Washington Republicans privately acknowledge Trump lost, they report.

— The biggest consequence: "The message appears to be contributing to eroding confidence in the nation's election systems."

— Interesting nugget: The trio report that Trump has said privately he doesn't think AL GORE should have conceded in 2000.

SPEAKING OF BUSH V. GORE … Though the late Justice JOHN PAUL STEVENS reached a deal with the Library of Congress for most of his case files through 2005 to be made public by last year, the Supreme Court has delayed their release because of the pandemic, CNN's Joan Biskupic reports. When they are revealed, the files could help shed light on the landmark 2000 election decision, as well as cases on affirmative action, Guantanamo, LGBT rights and more.

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

STONEWALL HOLDING STRONG — The recent criminal indictment of STEVE BANNON has not helped the Jan. 6 committee get any more cooperation from MARK MEADOWS or DAN SCAVINO in their monthslong negotiations, report Kyle Cheney, Betsy Woodruff Swan and Nicholas Wu. Meadows and others appear to be waiting to see how Trump's lawsuit plays out, but committee members aren't optimistic about securing their testimony soon. Rep. ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.) did say that the Bannon indictment has yielded cooperation from lower-profile targets, though.

THE WHITE HOUSE

TO SPEAK OR NOT TO SPEAK — Some Democrats are pushing the White House to take a page out of Trump's book and have Biden speak to the press more often, NYT's Michael Grynbaum writes . Since taking office, the historically garrulous Biden hasn't sat for interviews with the NYT, WaPo, WSJ, AP … the list goes on. He's done about one-eighth as many one-on-one interviews as BARACK OBAMA had at this point in his presidency. And some in his party are worried that Biden's effectively ceding too much narrative control to Republicans.

NOT READY FOR LIFTOFF — A Pentagon assessment of Lockheed Martin's new presidential helicopter deemed it unreliable in an emergency and not "operationally suitable" yet, postponing Biden's use of the new chopper, Bloomberg's Anthony Capaccio and Jennifer Jacobs report. The White House is still in the process of evaluating its safety. The September Pentagon report said the new helicopter — part of a $5 billion program to upgrade the government's fleet — could be ready for more routine missions.

 

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POLICY CORNER

FED UP — We have some clarity about the direction of the central bank's monetary policy now that Biden has announced he'll nominate Chair JEROME POWELL to another term (with LAEL BRAINARD as No. 2). But when it comes to regulating Wall Street, much will hinge on Biden's choice of who will replace RANDAL QUARLES, report WSJ's Andrew Ackerman and Orla McCaffrey.

THE PANDEMIC

MANDATE DEBATE — The Biden administration overnight filed papers asking a federal appeals court to lift a stay on its workplace Covid-19 vaccine mandate rule, per The Hill . It's "the most significant legal move the administration has made" in the case in recent weeks. The administration argued that every day of delaying the rule would lead to multiple deaths from the disease.

LONG ROAD AHEAD — With the majority of the world still not fully vaccinated against Covid-19, the U.S. and other wealthy countries are scrambling to try to accelerate the timeline to get doses to underserved areas. And a Johnson & Johnson/Merck effort to speed up vaccine production that was touted by the Biden administration "now may not generate any usable shots until the spring," Erin Banco, Adam Cancryn and Carmen Paun report for the first time. The big picture: "[T]he world still faces significant complications in vaccinating enough of the world to keep Covid-19 at bay and to prevent new, more-transmissible variants from emerging."

TRUMP CARDS

IMMIGRATION FILES — A new investigation from WaPo's Debbie Cenziper, Madison Muller, Monique Beals, Rebecca Holland and Andrew Ba Tran pulls back the curtain on the controversial 287(g) program, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement operation that gives state and local law enforcement authority to question and detain undocumented immigrants. Advocates said it would target serious criminals; critics warned it could expand to others as well. Now, having obtained internal ICE emails, WaPo reports: "Despite mounting concerns about discriminatory policing, the Trump administration aggressively recruited local law enforcement partners and courted sheriffs who championed similar views on immigration policy."

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

SCOTUS WATCH — What could happen if the Supreme Court strikes down Roe v. Wade in the upcoming Mississippi abortion case? Reporting from Oxford, Miss., Reuters' Lawrence Hurley writes that "large swathes of America could return to an era in which women who want to end a pregnancy face the choice of undergoing a potentially dangerous illegal abortion, traveling long distances to a state where the procedure remains legal and available or buying abortion pills online."

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

PAGING IVÁN DUQUE MÁRQUEZ — WSJ's Vivian Salama and Juan Forero scooped that the Biden administration will as soon as today remove its terrorist designation for the FARC, the prominent Colombian group. It's a move "that would demonstrate American support for a fragile peace agreement with the guerrillas in Colombia."

OFFSIDES — Former CIA officer KEVIN CHALKER spied for Qatar for years on FIFA and rival nations' soccer officials as part of the country's effort to get (and keep) the 2022 World Cup, AP's Alan Suderman reveals in a new investigation. The story, he writes, is "the most detailed to date [that shows] Qatar's use of former U.S. spies and provides a rare look into the world of former Western spies working in the Gulf for autocratic governments."

PLAYBOOKERS

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Jamie Jackson is joining House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer's office as senior counsel. She previously was security clearance counsel for the White House Office of Presidential Personnel, and is a House Armed Services Committee alum.

MEDIA MOVES — Rebecca Kern will join POLITICO as a tech reporter covering online speech, misinformation, content moderation and broader technology policy. She most recently has been a tech and cyber policy reporter at Bloomberg Government. … Miki King is rejoining WaPo to lead its Arc XP software arm, per Axios' Sara Fischer. She most recently was president of Genius Media Group, and is a former WaPo chief marketing officer and POLITICO alum.

 

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California Today: Another Thanksgiving, another crab season delay

Fishermen in the Bay Area and other parts of California are grappling with an ever-shortening

It's Tuesday. California fishermen are grappling with an ever-shortening crab season. Plus, the former Theranos executive Elizabeth Holmes testifies in the criminal trial against her.

Dan Kammerer, left, and Dick Ogg with a pot of crab samples they hauled onto the boat.Jim Wilson/The New York Times

BODEGA BAY, Calif. — On a foggy morning in early November, Dan Kammerer hauled a crab trap onto a fishing boat about three miles off the coast of Northern California and assessed his catch: 10 or so Dungeness crabs, spindly red legs akimbo.

"I'll pick three of these," Kammerer, 79, said as he tossed some of the smallest crustaceans back into the ocean. "Will I pick three winners? I don't know."

Kammerer, a retired fisherman, is playing a small role in aiding California's crab fishing industry, which faces an uncertain future as it grapples with an ever-shortening season.

On that day, he was selecting crabs to be tested for domoic acid, a neurotoxin that, when found in the seafood, can halt the opening of the commercial fishing season. The toxin is not the only unwanted presence: In the past few years, a handful of migrating whales have been tangled in crab traps.

Now, the season can't open until a majority of the whales are gone.

"We've gone from a seven-month-long crab season to one that is going to be three months, at best," said Ben Platt, the president of the California Coast Crab Association, which advocates for the fishery. He and some other fishermen say that it is not just their way of life at risk, but also potentially the future of California's crab fishery, one of the state's most valuable.

If the regulations keep tightening, Platt said, "there's a good chance that the Dungeness fishing industry won't survive."

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Kammerer baiting traps that will be used in the crab pots.Jim Wilson/The New York Times
A gauge is used to check the size of the crabs.Jim Wilson/The New York Times

The curtailed season is the outcome of a bitter conflict between fishermen and environmentalists, who have long campaigned to protect California's marine life from becoming entangled in fishing gear. In 2019, they reached a settlement with the state government and a group of fishermen to ensure that a region's crabbing season could begin only once it had been declared mostly free of threatened and endangered whales.

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It is also a case study in whether the country's major fisheries can adapt to climate change: Rising ocean temperatures, scientists say, may have helped encourage the whales into crab territory. Warming waters can also increase the toxic algae blooms that can end up poisoning the shellfish.

"It all trickles down," Jarrod Santora, a marine biologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said of the knockoff effects of climate change on the fishing community. The humpback whale population, historically threatened by hunting, he added, has also recovered significantly.

Kammerer, the fisherman, said: "When there's too many of them, who wins the battle? The whales or the fishermen?"

This year, the season is still not open in some parts of the state, including the Bay Area. For many, crab won't be on the Thanksgiving menu. Other fishermen worry they will lose out on the Christmas market as well.

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"If we don't have the product, we're going to lose our income," said Tony Anello, 73, a fisherman and the owner of Spud Point Crab Company, a restaurant in Bodega Bay, a small town about 70 miles north of San Francisco.

A fishing vessel on the way into the harbor at Bodega Bay. Jim Wilson/The New York Times

Anello, who has been fishing for more than five decades, said he had watched his town morph increasingly into a tourist destination as many fishermen moved on. "The boats are dwindling away."

For younger fishermen, breaking into the crab fishery can seem near impossible.

"I tried to get this job for 10 years," said Liam Brayton, 37, who on a recent Thursday was repairing crab traps in a yard opposite the Spud Point Marina in Bodega Bay. But now, he said, "I don't see much of a future."

In Kammerer's case, the tough regulations were part of what led him to retire and sell his boat four years ago. But the ocean continues to lure him back, he said, and so he occasionally works as a deckhand to Dick Ogg, a friend and fellow crab fisherman.

That day, the pair cruised through cerulean waters, launching the traps and hauling them back with an air of optimism despite their acknowledgment that the future of the fishery was uncertain.

"This is our living, this is what we do every day, we don't want that to go away; we want to take care of this environment," Ogg, 68, said.

"I can't imagine a life without fishing," he added. "I'm a water person."

Livia Albeck-Ripka is a reporter for The New York Times, based in California.

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If you read one story, make it this

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention created a $200 million pandemic "weather service" — but outbreaks are a lot harder to predict than storms.

Scientists examined a mammoth tusk fragment in the lab of a ship.Darrin Schultz/MBARI

The rest of the news

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • Weather warning: Santa Ana winds will raise fire danger this week in parts of Orange, San Diego, San Bernardino, Riverside, Los Angeles and Ventura Counties.
  • Stinky cities: For weeks, Carson residents have complained of a foul smell, not the first time a Southern California city has stunk, The Los Angeles Times reports.
  • Supply chain progress: The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach will delay fines for lingering cargo containers, CNBC reports.
  • Student vaccines: Thousands of Los Angeles students who have missed a Covid vaccination deadline may not be able to attend in-person classes, The Los Angeles Times reports.
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
  • Citizen held in immigration detention: A lawsuit was filed against Immigration and Customs Enforcement on behalf of a U.S. citizen who spent 36 days in a San Joaquin Valley immigration lockup, The Fresno Bee reports.
  • Air particulates: Kern County has significantly reduced fine particulate emissions, but wildfires threaten to undo the progress, The Bakersfield Californian reports.
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • DoorDash: The restaurant delivery company will pay a $5.3 million settlement to San Francisco couriers for withholding health care coverage and paid sick leave mandated by the city, The San Francisco Chronicle reports.

What you get

Tony Cenicola/The New York Times

What we're drinking

California cabernet sauvignon, from beyond Napa Valley.

The Trona Pinnacles.Shutterstock

Where we're traveling

Today's tip comes from Lisa McInnis, who recommends the Trona Pinnacles in Central California:

"My husband and I are East Coasters in an R.V. nine months a year for the last 10 years. We have come to love the drive down Highway 395. This year we pulled off on to California State Route 178 and camped at the Trona Pinnacles for a few days. It's a washboard-bouncy road for the five-mile trek in, and so worth the ride."

Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com. We'll be sharing more in upcoming editions of the newsletter.

And before you go, some good news

Tiffany Moss-Ennis, who lives in Bakersfield, recently discovered a hidden talent: playing the card game Uno.

She was selected as a finalist from a pool of two million competitors and invited to compete at the Uno World Championship in Las Vegas this month, The Bakersfield Californian reports.

Moss-Ennis came in second place and walked away with a massive trophy and a check for $5,000.

Thanks for reading. We'll be back tomorrow.

P.S. Here's today's Mini Crossword, and a clue: Playground retort (5 letters).

Soumya Karlamangla and Mariel Wamsley contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.

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