Playbook PM: Senate Dems hit a wall

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Dec 16, 2021 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Eugene Daniels, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Presented by

Amazon

In two paragraphs, here's how things are going on Capitol Hill:

"Senate Democrats are openly venting their frustration at the stalled state of both elections reform and President JOE BIDEN's sweeping spending ambitions as their work winds down for the year," report Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine.

"Front and center is the imminent expiration of the expanded child tax credit, now caught up in a dispute between most of the party and Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.). Democrats are also staring at an impasse over proposals to weaken the filibuster and pass their elections bill via a simple majority, as the party remains several votes short of what they need to change the Senate rules."

This choice quote from Sen. MAZIE HIRONO (D-Hawaii) just about sums it up: "A 50/50 Senate is really problematic. I've used the word 'sucks.' It definitely enables one or two people to hold things up. So, yes, I am frustrated."

What's being held up in the Senate, and how likely is a breakthrough? Anthony Adragna has the breakdown for Congress Minutes.

1. Unlikely to see a breakthrough: Build Back Better. BBB is all but officially on the back burner, as Manchin continues to express doubts about the size and scope of the bill. The most recent disagreement comes over the child tax credit: Manchin wants to extend it for more than the one-year time frame in BBB, but the expense of doing that will dramatically increase the overall cost of BBB — which Manchin is opposed to doing.

— This morning, Senate Majority Whip DICK DURBIN said he's "stunned" by Manchin's position on the child tax credit, and "frustrated and disappointed" by BBB's stallout, per Burgess. "I can tell you the level of emotion at our caucus about the child tax credit is very high," Durbin said. "We were so proud of what we've accomplished there, and for this to come up as an issue toward the end was stunning."

— Manchin is throwing another wrench in the works, signaling he won't back the BBB's ban on all future offshore oil and gas drilling, per WaPo's Jeff Stein and Anna Phillips. The West Virginian is also skeptical about ending an oil and gas leasing program in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, which we're sure will be well received by his fellow Dems.

2. Also unlikely to see a breakthrough: federal voting rights legislation. Any hope of a filibuster carveout for voting rights effectively died Wednesday, when Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.) put the kibosh on it, telling Burgess that she opposes a filibuster carveout. (Manchin, FWIW, sounds open to it.)

— But the White House plans to mount a "forceful push" for voting rights in the new year, our Jonathan Lemire and Laura Barrón-López report, potentially timing it to coincide with the upcoming Jan. 6 anniversary. But White House aides are divided over how exactly to commemorate the occasion beyond having Biden give a speech, and voting rights advocates continue to be irked about a perceived lack of urgency from the administration.

Interesting tidbit: "White House aides … have been instructed to avoid the phrase 'filibuster reform,' which they believe has become toxic and spurs knee-jerk opposition."

3. The most likely to see movement: Biden's ambassador nominations. Sens. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) and JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.) have been fighting basically every single nominee from the White House for weeks. There are at least 54 nominees waiting, and talks are underway for a deal that would allow many of them to get confirmed before the recess.

— Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER has already filed cloture on almost two dozen of the nominees, and as we know, there's almost nothing that gets Congress to strike a deal faster than the threat of weekend work or a dangling recess.

Good Thursday afternoon.

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WHAT MELANIA IS UP TO — Former first lady MELANIA TRUMP is launching a "non-fungible token platform" and blockchain technology venture, putting out NFTs regularly on MelaniaTrump.com. The first one, available to buy for $150 through the end of the year, is called "Melania's Vision." It's an image of a painting of a close-up of her eyes — or, as her website bills it, a "breathtaking watercolor … [of her] cobalt blue eyes, providing the collector with an amulet to inspire" — with an accompanying voice recording on which she delivers a "a message of hope." (That message, in its entirety: "My vision is: look forward with inspiration, strength and courage.") Announcement The NFT

THE WHITE HOUSE

IT'S OFFICIAL — Biden has signed the bill to increase the debt limit, staving off a perilous default.

YOU DON'T SEE THIS EVERY DAY — When Biden visited the Kentucky towns destroyed by recent tornadoes, he found something almost vanishingly rare: people eschewing political differences to come together. WaPo's Matt Viser reports from Mayfield that even in this very conservative area, comity ruled the day, despite a few "Let's Go Brandon" shouts. The experience "suggest[s] that a natural disaster remains one of the few spaces left in American life where, however briefly, many attempt to put their politics aside."

CONGRESS

ANOTHER RETIREMENT — Rep. ALAN LOWENTHAL (D-Calif.) is heading for the exits, another House Dem forgoing reelection as the caucus stares down a difficult midterm cycle. "It is time to pass the baton," he said. "It is time to rest and surround myself with the benefits of a life well lived and earned honorably in the service of my fellow citizens." Full statement

FULL-CIRCLE MOMENT — When Biden delivers the fall commencement address at South Carolina State University on Friday, there'll be one unusual (and familiar) face to whom he'll hand a diploma: House Majority Whip JIM CLYBURN (D-S.C.).

As a midyear graduate from the school 60 years ago this month , Clyburn didn't get to march across the stage. Now, he "will get the opportunity to experience the pomp and circumstance of the college graduation ceremony he never had," WaPo's Amy Wang writes.

THE ECONOMY

THE UNEMPLOYMENT PICTURE — New jobless claims ticked up slightly to the still-low figure of 206,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rolls shrank earlier this month, "which raises hope that an acute shortage of workers that is hampering hiring could soon ease," writes Reuters' Lucia Mutikani.

 

DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.

 
 

POLITICS ROUNDUP

MYPILLOW TALK — The Big Lie continues apace: MyPillow CEO MIKE LINDELL tells CNBC's Brian Schwartz that he's spent $25 million pushing his 2020 conspiracy theories and has no plans to stop through the midterms. "We either only have two paths: either it gets changed before the 2022 election or we lose our country forever," he says. "I will spend every dime I have."

AIPAC LAUNCHES SUPER PAC — AIPAC today launched a federal PAC and a super PAC to support pro-Israel elected officials and congressional candidates, which will allow it to spend unlimited amounts on campaigns. It also means that the group will wade "into direct spending for and against candidates for the first time," reports Elena Schneider.

QUOTE OF THE DAY — Rep. DINA TITUS blasted her fellow Nevada Democrats for how they handled the state's redistricting process, warning that the redrawn lines would put the party at risk of losing all three of their House seats next year. "I totally got fucked by the Legislature on my district," she said, according to the Nevada Current's Michael Lyle. "I'm sorry to say it like that, but I don't know any other way to say it."

CASH DASH — Political ad spending this year totaled $1.23 billion — almost three times the level in 2017 and even surpassing 2019, when the presidential primary was in full swing, reports Fox News' Paul Steinhauser.

MAKING NICE — As Democrats prepare to launch their midterms efforts at a weekend party gathering in South Carolina, some intra-DNC tensions are subsiding and "[a]llies of JAIME HARRISON are circling wagons" around the chair, reports Insider's Adam Wren. Still, it's not all hunky-dory: "That's not something I feel like talking about on my birthday," DONNA BRAZILE texted when asked about Harrison.

BRUTAL FOR BDB — N.Y. Mag's David Freedlander has a tough story about outgoing New York City Mayor BILL DE BLASIO remaining very unpopular — with both the public and some of his former staffers. This series of quotes caught our eye: "'He was just so brutally mean to people,' recalls one agency head. 'I can't stand the man.' 'An arrogant ass,' says another adviser. 'Really, really hard to take,' says a third. 'Constantly being lectured and patronized.'"

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

GETTING THE BAND BACK TOGETHER — ROGER STONE plans to plead the Fifth when he sits for a deposition with the Jan. 6 committee Friday, per CNN's Sara Murray.

— The committee has subpoenaed BRAD PARSCALE for his phone records from November 2020 to January, The Daily Beast's Roger Sollenberger scooped. Parscale said he wasn't involved in Jan. 6 and had nothing to hide, though he didn't answer when asked if he would testify.

TIME ON THEIR SIDE? — We've seen over the past few years how nearly impossible it can be for Congress to use the courts to enforce subpoenas in any sort of timely fashion. Now, with the Jan. 6 committee (and other investigations) bearing down, figures like MARK MEADOWS, STEVE BANNON and JOHN EASTMAN are hoping to just run out the clock, report NYT's Jonathan Weisman and Luke Broadwater. Under the Biden administration, the DOJ is moving faster, but potential criminal charges for Meadows would likely take longer than they did for Bannon, and "even on a faster timeline, the House's targets have plenty of judicial recourse."

POLICY CORNER

INFRASTRUCTURE YEAR — VP KAMALA HARRIS today announced a plan to replace the millions of lead pipes in the country using money from the bipartisan infrastructure law, though the administration will have to get funding from other sources too to make up a funding gap. (One of those sources was supposed to be the newly imperiled Build Back Better bill.) The EPA today is also rolling out tougher regulations on pipes. More from NBC

KEEP ON TRUCKING — With an eye on gummed-up supply chains, the administration today is rolling out a new effort to get more commercial truck drivers on the road, boost retention and improve their job quality and pay, WSJ's Jennifer Smith reports. The new initiatives include "making it easier and faster for them to get certified and by jump-starting or expanding apprenticeship programs through carriers and other employers with trucking fleets," though they're not likely to have an immediate impact on supply-chain issues.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 

TRUMP CARDS

THE INVESTIGATIONS — Will Manhattan DA CYRUS VANCE JR. drop a bombshell and bring charges against DONALD TRUMP before he retires at the end of the month, or will he leave the decision to his successor? AP's Michael Sisak reports that "a rush to get the case done before Jan. 1 might … be out of character for a prosecutor who holds few news conferences, does few interviews and is known for a methodical approach."

KISSING THE RING — Mar-a-Lago is the place to be for any Republicans who want Trump's imprimatur — and they have to pay for the privilege. WaPo's Josh Dawsey and David Fahrenthold tallied 30 such events held by candidates or organizations at Trump properties this year, the most ever, though the final total will actually be much higher. It's a number that "spotlights the unparalleled way in which Trump has personally profited from his presidency and his popularity in the GOP."

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

SANCTIONS SECTION — Advocates and some lawmakers are pressing the Biden administration and other countries to sanction Myanmar's oil and gas industry, per WSJ's Feliz Solomon , who reveals new letters that "illustrate how important revenues from the industry are to the country's military." Previous sanctions have primarily targeted military leaders and businesses linked to them.

PAGING XI JINPING — The administration is placing more Chinese firms on the U.S. blacklist over their alleged involvement in mass surveillance of ethnic minorities, WSJ's Alex Leary reports.

FOR YOUR RADAR — All the remaining kidnapped American/Canadian missionaries in Haiti have been released after two months of being held by a gang. Latest from the Miami Herald

PLAYBOOKERS

BOOK CLUB — Facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen has inked a book deal to write a memoir "offering a critical examination of Facebook," per AP's Hillel Italie.

MEDIA MOVES — Leah Askarinam is joining the NYT as co-host of a new version of the On Politics evening newsletter, along with Blake Hounshell. She most recently has been editor-in-chief of National Journal's The Hotline. Announcement Beth Frerking will be editor-in-chief of Education Week. She most recently was an editor at The Dallas Morning News, and is a POLITICO alum. … Bennett Richardson is moving up to become president of Protocol, and Tim Grieve is moving up to become editor-in-chief.

STAFFING UP — Valerie Williams is now director of the Office of Special Education Programs at the Department of Education. She most recently was senior director of government relations and external affairs at the National Association of State Directors of Special Education.

TRANSITION — Kiersten Pels is joining Sen. Ron Johnson's (R-Wis.) office as research director. She most recently was deputy press secretary for Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.), and is a Trump campaign alum.

WEDDING — Doug Michelman, former chief comms officer for Sprint and president of the 1 Million Project and a Visa, Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale alum, and Nina Dobbs, got married Dec. 8. The couple, who met at a Galactic concert at the Capitol Theater in Port Chester, N.Y., eloped in the British Virgin Islands. Pic

BONUS BIRTHDAYS: Scotty Greenwood of the Canadian American Business Council … Alexandra Davis of Rep. Ronny Jackson's (R-Texas) office

 

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California Today: What to know about flu season

Influenza all but disappeared last winter, but that's unlikely this year amid loosened pandemic
Author Headshot

By Soumya Karlamangla

California Today, Writer

It's Thursday. Influenza season all but disappeared in California last winter, but that's unlikely this time around. Plus, San Francisco passes groundbreaking sick leave legislation.

Masks and social distancing helped keep flu deaths below average last winter.Mike Kai Chen for The New York Times

As is the case with so many things, the pandemic flipped on its head something we once took for granted: the rampant spread of the flu.

Each year between October and May, generally considered flu season in America, millions of people catch influenza and tens of thousands die from it. The flu has consistently been one of the top 10 annual leading causes of death in the U.S. — until 2020.

Last year's flu season caused about 1 percent of the hospitalizations and infections of an average season, according to some estimates. In California, 50 people died of the flu last winter, a huge drop from 706 deaths during the 2019-20 season.

We can think of this as a pandemic silver living: A combination of social distancing, masking and school closures that were in place to limit the spread of the coronavirus most likely also kept the flu at bay.

That's good news, but it leaves a question mark around what's going to happen this year. Coronavirus restrictions have been loosened, but we're by no means back to a prepandemic normal.

So, you might be wondering, how bad is the flu season going to get?

The short (and frustrating) answer is that we have to wait and see. The flu season typically peaks around February, so we can't know all that much based on what we've seen in these early months.

So far, flu case numbers nationwide and in California have been low, but are trending upward.

Three Californians have died of the flu since October, including a middle-aged man in Los Angeles County. The other deaths were an elderly Californian and a person between the ages of 18 and 49, according to state data.

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The universal indoor masking requirement that California instated this week to stem rising coronavirus numbers is likely to also limit the spread of the flu. Same goes for moving gatherings to outdoor settings, thorough hand-washing and most measures aimed at minimizing Covid-19 spread.

Patrons of Grand Central Market are required to wear masks as of this week.Mario Tama/Getty Images

But the pandemic may also have less beneficial effects on flu transmission. Some experts worry that last year's light influenza season reduced Americans' immunity to the virus.

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One mathematical model calculated that our increased susceptibility could lead to an extra 102,000 Americans hospitalized with influenza this winter — a 20 percent increase compared with an average flu season.

"Because of so little disease last year, population immunity is likely lower, putting us all at increased risk of disease this year, especially among the most vulnerable, including our children," Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said in a recent press briefing.

Health officials say the best protection is a flu vaccine, which they recommend for everyone 6 months and older. Though not as effective as the Covid-19 vaccines, they're still the best way to keep yourself safe from the flu.

"That's the only thing that really makes a difference," Peter Palese, a microbiologist and flu expert at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York City, told my colleague in a Q. and A. on how to prepare for flu season.

One argument in favor of getting a flu vaccine feels especially resonant nowadays:

The vaccines reduce your likelihood of not just catching the flu, but of passing it on to someone else. You may be able to survive a bout with the virus, but a child or grandparent you transmit it to may not be so lucky.

For more:

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If you read one story, make it this

Business groups are suing to block a new California law that they say could keep pork off plates.

California, Arizona and Nevada's share of Colorado River water is delivered through the country's largest reservoir, Lake Mead.Patrick T. Fallon/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The rest of the news

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • L.A. schools: The Los Angeles school board decided to delay enforcement of a Covid-19 student vaccination requirement to fall 2022. It was scheduled to go into effect next month.
  • Outdoor dining: Manhattan Beach is ending its street dining program after complaints about increased traffic and narrowed driving lanes, The Associated Press reports.
  • Covid classroom: An entire sixth-grade class was sent home and instructed to quarantine in the Placentia-Yorba Linda Unified School District, CBS LA reports.
  • Oil spill: An oil company based in Houston was charged for releasing crude oil into the ocean off the Southern California coast, The Associated Press reports.
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • Sick leave: San Francisco has become the first city in the country to pass legislation requiring paid sick leave for domestic workers, The San Francisco Chronicle reports.
  • A controversial proposal: A plan to airdrop poison pellets on Farallon Islands to kill mice that have wreaked havoc on the local ecosystem is coming up for a vote today, The Marin Independent Journal reports.
Cons Poulos for The New York Times

What we're eating

Crispy feta makes a dazzling appetizer.

Where we're traveling

Today's travel tip comes from Laryn Lee, who recommends Huntington Library and Gardens in San Marino:

"Our children, now ages 20 and 24, have fond memories of regularly visiting and running around the grounds of Huntington Library and Gardens in San Marino, since they first arrived home as infants from China.

We have pictures of them when the beautiful camellias are in bloom in the fall, and also when the different species of colorful roses are in bloom in the spring. The transformation of the Gardens from being a sort of sleepy museum and grounds to visit with no entrance fee, to being revamped via upgraded development to a premiere go-to museum and grounds is impressive.

For us adults, watching the construction of the authentic Chinese Garden — using artisans brought over from China — was breathtaking. For our children, being able to play in the Children's Garden, especially in the hotter weather where they could get wet in the "mist shower" plus various fountains and streams (shhh, don't tell the guards), was a reward for having gone inside the old mansion to find and view the paintings of Blue Boy and Pinkie. Also impressive is the Japanese Garden with a bridge, house and lovely bonsai collection. And only over multiple visits did I grow to appreciate the colorful and strange succulent plants in the Desert Garden. Oh and when we were on the Library of Congress tour in Washington, D.C., when the docent asked if anyone else had seen a Gutenberg Bible they both spoke up and said, yes, they'd already seen one in Huntington Gardens!"

Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com. We'll be sharing more in upcoming editions of the newsletter.

Tell us

An annual tamales party, New Year's in Palm Springs or an order of Ikeda's pies for Christmas dinner — what are your Golden State holiday traditions?

Email me at CaToday@nytimes.com.

Alissa Johnson greeting visitors at Simpson University's Christmas concert in Redding. Hung T. Vu

And before you go, some good news

In early December, The Redding Record Searchlight wrote about a surprising musical talent — a masterful cellist who lives on the streets.

Alissa Johnson, 33, has been playing cello since she was 11 and was described as a musical "genius." Unable to afford a new instrument outright, she bought a custom-made cello for $7,300 on credit earlier this year.

After the newspaper article published, Johnson got word that an anonymous reader wanted to pay off her cello. She still owed $6,649.

"I wish I could give them a hug, like 1,000 hugs or maybe how about like 6,600 hugs," Johnson told The Redding Record Searchlight.

Thanks for reading. I'll be back tomorrow. — Soumya

P.S. Here's today's Mini Crossword, and a clue: Bit of improv practice (5 letters).

Jack Kramer and Mariel Wamsley contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.

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