| | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | | | 
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation leapt 6.8% year over year in June. | Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP Photo | INFLATION NATION — Another day, another piece of challenging economic news for the Biden administration and the country. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation leapt 6.8% year over year in June, or 4.8% with food and energy exempted — slightly higher than economists had predicted. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index climbed more quickly than it has in 40 years. Month to month, prices jumped a full 1% from May (or 0.6% without food and fuel), the fastest such increase in 17 years. Workers' salaries also rose fast: A separate report showed wages jumping a record 1.6% in the second quarter of the year. Rising incomes are helping Americans blunt some of the impact of high prices — but they're still not keeping up with inflation. And accelerating wages create their own inflationary pressure. Details from the AP And so did consumer spending: What recession? Americans' spending rose 1.1% last month, much faster than 0.3% in May. That's another sign of the economy's strength — and another factor pushing prices higher. The upshot: "That combination is likely to reinforce the Fed's determination to cool down the economy and wrestle inflation back under control," writes NYT's Jeanna Smialek . The word no one wants to hear, via Axios' Neil Irwin : "For the last three months (e.g. Q2), core PCE inflation was 1.27%, which annualizes to 5.2%. Meanwhile final domestic private demand flatlined in the quarter. To me that's pretty close to the definition of stagflation." DEMS' BIG (SYMBOLIC) MOMENT — House Democrats are barreling toward a vote on an assault weapons ban later today, having decoupled it from legislation on policing. "House Democrats are committed to building safer communities, in every corner of the country," Speaker NANCY PELOSI wrote in a Dear Colleague letter this morning. An assault weapons ban, of course, is not going to pass the Senate. Can it even pass the House? Democrats would love to lay down a robust marker with a high-profile messaging bill following the package of narrower gun restrictions signed into law last month. But Pelosi's margins are narrow. Rep. RON KIND (D-Wis.) told Bloomberg's Erik Wasson he's leaning no. Pelosi said she's confident the ban will pass at her press conference this afternoon. Dems had originally planned votes on policing bills to accompany the assault weapons ban, after Reps. JOYCE BEATTY (D-Ohio) and JOSH GOTTHEIMER (D-N.J.) reached a deal on language around police accountability. But Black progressives revolted this morning, and the legislation got postponed for now. Pelosi said they'll come to the House floor the second week of August instead, but the move "stings for many centrists," report Sarah Ferris, Nick Wu and Jordain Carney . "For vulnerable moderate Democrats in particular, they demanded a vote to help them tout their pro-policing bona fides back home … But the opposition remained too strong among progressives." ANOTHER ONE — SARAH GODLEWSKI today dropped out of the Wisconsin Democratic Senate primary, capping a rapid coalescing of the field over the past five days around Lt. Gov. MANDELA BARNES to take on GOP Sen. RON JOHNSON in November. Godlewski endorsed Barnes. More from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Happy Friday afternoon.
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Learn how Meta is helping build the metaverse. | | | JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH THE INVESTIGATIONS — The Justice Department's expanding Jan. 6 probe is worrying officials that the department might not have sufficient resources to manage the sprawl, NBC's Ryan Reilly reports . A "logistical nightmare," coming to a "breaking point," a "tremendous challenge": The scope of pursuing charges against hundreds or thousands of rioters, plus the newer investigations into the effort to overturn the 2020 election, is straining DOJ's capabilities. Some sources "close to the investigation say it is at a crossroads. 'We don't have the manpower,' an official said." But A.G. MERRICK GARLAND has said he's "confident" the department can handle it. MCCARTHY SPEAKS — House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY today did not confirm CASSIDY HUTCHINSON's testimony that he'd called her on Jan. 6 and told her not to have DONALD TRUMP come to the Capitol. "I don't recall talking to her that day," McCarthy said at his first solo press conference in four months, adding that he didn't watch Trump's speech that day. "I don't remember having any conversations with her about the president coming to the Capitol. I don't recall any of that." FRIDAY WATCH — Rep. STEPHANIE MURPHY (D-Fla.) sat down with D.C. Metropolitan Police Officer DANIEL HODGES, who she says saved her life on Jan. 6, for a video interview with JC Whittington . "No closure yet," Hodges says. "Still waiting for that accountability." CONGRESS LOOK WHO'S BACK — KELLYANNE CONWAY met today with House Republicans in McCarthy's office to talk about policy task forces for the conference's 2023 legislative plans, per CNN's Mel Zanona .
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today . | | | | | ALL POLITICS EYES EMOJI — Rep. BILLY LONG (R-Mo.) : "Don't quote me on it but I think we'll have white smoke soon from 45 on #MOSen." DEMOCRACY DIGEST — AP's Sam Metz has the telling story of what happened when election fraud conspiracy theories overran vast, conservative Nye County, Nev., forcing local leaders to plan to hand-count every ballot and pushing the longtime clerk who administers elections out the door. Now she'll likely be replaced by an election denier. "At a recent Republican Party event and county commission meeting, many brought up stories they had heard involving QR codes, half-inserted USB drives and foreign hackers infiltrating machines manufactured by Dominion Voting Systems," Metz finds. "No evidence has surfaced to prove any of the theories, yet they continue to spread in Nye County Facebook groups." Related read: "Inside one far-right sheriff's crusade to prove Trump's bogus voter-fraud claims," by Reuters' Peter Eisler and Nathan Layne: "In rural Michigan, county Sheriff DAR LEAF has teamed with a Trump-camp lawyer to chase the former president's outlandish rigged-election theories. A member of a radical group of 'constitutional sheriffs,' he's now under investigation himself." 2024 WATCH — Former VP MIKE PENCE is heading to Iowa for two days next month, Adam Wren scooped . — A new USA Today/Suffolk University poll finds, once again, that most Americans don't want President JOE BIDEN or Trump in 2024 — though Biden leads 45% to 41% in a head-to-head matchup. In a GOP primary, Trump leads Florida Gov. RON DESANTIS 43% to 34%, while a Democratic primary without Biden would see VP KAMALA HARRIS and Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) roughly tied at 18% apiece. DEPT. OF UPHILL BATTLES — In Utah, EVAN MCMULLIN is attempting an independent bid to take down GOP Sen. MIKE LEE, trying to pull together an anti-Trumpist coalition in a red state, Samuel Benson writes for POLITICO Magazine . "If his motley lot can swing the election, McMullin figures, perhaps it could serve as a template for other races around the country to take on the far right or the far left." McMullin views the stakes of the race in existential terms for democracy. But he has a tricky task to get Democrats on board with a conservative and peel enough GOP votes from Lee. GUBERNATORIAL GAUNTLET — FWIW's Kyle Tharp and Nick Seymour break down MAGA star KARI LAKE's social media dominance in the Arizona gubernatorial race. But what really stood out to us was this stat: Democratic frontrunner KATIE HOBBS' campaign "did not even post on Facebook or Instagram for a 17-day period from June 24th to July 11th and didn't post again during an 8-day period from July 11 to July 19th." — More on the Hobbs campaign, via the Arizona Agenda : "In the past five months, two-thirds of Democrat Katie Hobbs' gubernatorial campaign staff have left, and several describe the campaign as an emotionally abusive atmosphere that got so bad, they were to upend their lives and plans mid-election and seek employment elsewhere. The problem isn't Hobbs herself, the former staffers told us. Instead, it was created by a new campaign manager." (In response, the campaign said, "Campaigns are tough, and turnover — especially leading up to the general election — is common.") — In Michigan, an unsettled GOP primary has given Democratic Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER a boost heading into the general election, WSJ's Dante Chinni and Joshua Jamerson report . The Republican field, which has TUDOR DIXON perhaps out to a slight lead, "is long on outsider bona fides but short on political experience. The question in Michigan this fall may be whether that works as an asset in 2022 against Ms. Whitmer." CASH DASH — "'I don't agree with her on anything,' California Democrats say of Liz Cheney — as they donate to her race," by the L.A. Times' Seema Mehta and Jasper Goodman UP IN SMOKE — Michael Schaffer dives into the lawsuit against JOHN BOEHNER, which contends that the former speaker and Squire Patton Boggs stole JAMES PERICOLA's plans to launch a cannabis advocacy group in Washington. "In the end, fancy-pants strategic thinking may be a minor thing compared to the more important question of who you know," Schaffer concludes. "In which case a former House speaker and a legendary Beltway firm will always win. Not that any of them would want to argue that point in court." BREAKING — "Russian charged with using U.S. groups to spread propaganda," by AP's Eric Tucker
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | ABORTION FALLOUT POLL OF THE DAY — Another poll finds a majority of Americans opposed to the end of Roe v. Wade — but in a heartening sign for Republicans in the latest WaPo/Schar School survey, abortion opponents seem more intent on voting this fall, Hannah Knowles, Emily Guskin and Scott Clement write . Fifty-two percent of people who see the ruling as a loss for women say they're certain to vote in the midterms — compared to 70% of those who don't see the decision that way. Uncertainty about voting is particularly high among younger women. VALLEY TALK SPAM FILTER — As the GOP has struggled to keep up its online fundraising recently, some Republicans have taken aim at Google, mounting a pressure campaign to stop sending their Gmail solicitations to spam folders, WaPo's Isaac Stanley-Becker and Josh Dawsey report . "It's unclear what impact Google's spam filters have had on the GOP's fundraising, if any," they write. But Republicans, who frequently criticize Big Tech for what they see as political bias, might succeed nonetheless: "Google asked the Federal Election Commission to green-light a pilot program that would exempt campaign emails from spam detection, which could reshape the experience of Gmail users." THE PANDEMIC GETTING A BOOST — We got more details this morning on the U.S. government's plans to secure reformulated coronavirus vaccine booster shots in September: The administration announced a $1.74 billion deal with Moderna for 66 million doses and the option to buy 234 million more, per WSJ's Stephanie Armour . The FDA would still need to sign off on the shots. THE WHITE HOUSE SEMIQUINCENTENNIAL SHAKEUP — Biden today named former U.S. Treasurer ROSIE RIOS to replace Philadelphia developer DAN DILELLA as head of the commission planning the country's 250th anniversary. Some board members had "accused DiLella and his allies of moving slowly, secretly and within narrow circles of supporters," per The Philadelphia Inquirer's Joseph DiStefano . But DiLella said in an interview that "I'm not a Democrat, and they had to get one … I'm surprised I was in that position so long."
| | | | INTRODUCING POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY . | | | | | TRUMP CARDS KUSHNER VS. BANNON — In more new details from his upcoming memoir, JARED KUSHNER rehashes his White House feuds with a "toxic" STEVE BANNON, laying bare "how distrust and resentment affected every aspect of governing," CNN's Kaitlan Collins writes . Kushner recalls Bannon yelling, "If you go against me, I will break you in half. Don't fuck with me." PLAYBOOKERS OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a Bistro Bis event Tuesday for PolarisPAC, Morgan Ortagus' vehicle to provide national security policy guidance: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), Norm Coleman, Victoria Coates, Mary Kissel, Frank Fannon and Cale Brown. — The White House Historical Association hosted a luncheon honoring former first lady Jackie Kennedy's birthday in New York City on Thursday. Mark Updegrove and Barbara Perry spoke about Kennedy's legacy and founding of the association. SPOTTED: Australian Ambassador Arthur Sinodinos, Brenda Johnson, Teresa Carlson, André Pienaar, Steve and Barbara Isenberg, Nabila Khashoggi, John McConnell and Ava Roosevelt. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The Office of the National Cyber Director is adding Haley Ring as special assistant to the principal deputy national cyber director and Elliott Phaup as special advisor for legislative affairs. Ring previously was special assistant to DOD's Office of the White House Liaison. Phaup previously was senior adviser to Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-Md.).
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