| | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | Presented by |  | | | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | | 
President Donald Trump celebrated the coming end of the government shutdown. | Evan Vucci/AP | SHUTDOWN WIND-DOWN: Washington’s record-breaking federal government shutdown is likely coming to a close. The House Rules Committee plans to meet around the 6 p.m. hour to tee up the Senate-passed deal, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill reports, and then the funding package is headed for the House floor in the late afternoon tomorrow. In celebration mode: At Arlington National Cemetery this morning, President Donald Trump said Speaker Mike Johnson “will go down as a great man someday” and lauded Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune for “a very big victory: We’re opening up our country. Should’ve never been closed.” (Trump also honored American veterans, said he was working to lower their unemployment and homelessness rates and touted staff reductions at the VA.) What comes next: Among the many questions looming for Congress and the White House now, the state of the economy may be top of mind. Policymakers flew somewhat blind during the shutdown as many federal economic reports went dark. The impending vote promised to Democrats on enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies will place the sticker shock of premium increases front and center. The salience of cost-of-living concerns for struggling Americans emerged as a central throughline in Democrats’ election victories across the country last week. And then there’s the impact of the shutdown itself, especially in the D.C. area. Even as federal workers get back pay and activities return to normal, this shutdown was so long and its disruptions so dire that the economy will likely sustain some lasting damage, economists tell AP’s Christopher Rugaber. CBO predictions pegged the lost activity at $11 billion, though other forecasters project a smaller hit. Growth is expected to drop this quarter before bouncing back in the first quarter of next year (along with a corresponding temporary bump in unemployment). The shutdown soured consumer sentiment and disrupted the travel and hospitality industries. Question marks: After the government reopens, it’ll still be difficult for economists and policymakers to sort out what damage was due to the shutdown and what was due to the more broadly weakening labor market, the impact of tariffs or (on the flip side) the AI boom, WSJ’s Justin Lahart and Konrad Putzier write. Eyes on the skies: With the shutdown still ongoing for now, the air travel situation continues to worsen. Mandated flight cancellations are still at a high level today and could rise later this week, Bloomberg’s Danny Lee notes. And airlines are warning that even once Trump signs the package into law, it’ll take days or longer for the industry to return to normal. The affordability debate: With Republicans on the back foot over price concerns after last week’s election, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on MSNBC today that Democrats are to blame: “We inherited a mess,” he said on “Morning Joe,” noting that the administration is working to bring prices down and working-class wages up. “That’s when Americans are going to be feeling good again, and that’s what next November’s election’s going to be fought on,” Bessent said. POLITICO’s Sam Sutton writes that slowing inflation isn’t enough: Wages also have to grow faster. That hasn’t happened so far this year, as inflation has outpaced pay after taxes for the middle and especially the bottom of the income distribution. The latest stats: The newest ADP private-sector data today indicates that the labor market continued to weaken in the latter half of October, with more than 11,000 jobs lost per week on average. More from the WSJ Good Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.
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Learn more at siemens-energy.com | | | | | | 6 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | 1. RETIREMENT PLANNING: Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) said today that he won’t run for reelection, exiting Congress after five terms, Fox News’ Liz Elkind scooped. As House Budget chair, Arrington has held a powerful position in Washington the past couple of years, capped by his stewardship of Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act. And he’s still eyeing another potential reconciliation bill. His departure will open up a safe Republican seat in West Texas. The announcement video, via Punchbowl 2. RUSS VOUGHT’S MISSION: “Trump administration declares CFPB funding illegal,” by POLITICO’s Michael Stratford: “The decision … marks the administration’s most direct effort yet to dismantle the consumer watchdog and sets up a new front in the ongoing legal battle over its future. The administration said it now considers the CFPB legally barred from seeking additional money from the Federal Reserve, which is the agency’s typical source of funding. … The move would leave the CFPB without money to operate starting next year, even to carry out its required activities, unless Congress passes fresh funding for the agency. That is unlikely, given widespread Republican opposition to the CFPB.” 3. INTELLIGENCE QUOTIENT: The U.S. strikes on alleged drug-trafficking boats in the Caribbean are prompting a significant rupture with the U.K., which has now halted intelligence-sharing with the Americans about such vessels, CNN’s Natasha Bertrand scooped. London has shared intel with the U.S. Coast Guard for years to help stop these boats, but after the series of extrajudicial, lethal strikes championed by Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, the U.K. “does not want to be complicit in US military strikes and believes the attacks are illegal” under international law.
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➡️ Subscribe to West Wing Playbook | | | | | 4. THE VIEW FROM CARACAS: As the U.S. saber-rattles against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, his government is crafting plans for guerrilla resistance or all-out anarchy in the event that the U.S. attacks, Reuters reports. “The approach is a tacit admission of the South American country’s shortage of personnel and equipment.” Either potential tactic would be a long-shot strategy if the U.S. actually took up arms against Venezuela directly; a lot of Caracas’ military equipment came from Russia decades ago, though the government has deployed thousands of missiles. Meanwhile, the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier and three warships landed in the U.S. Southern Command area today, getting close to Latin America, WaPo’s Tara Copp reports. 5. IN THE LAND OF SUBMARINES: “Trump’s deal with South Korea bogged down in details over submarine,” by Reuters’ Heejin Kim and Jihoon Lee: “Washington has approved Seoul’s use of nuclear fuel for the submarine but the factsheet is taking longer to finalise because relevant U.S. departments are still giving feedback and there continue to be adjustments on the wording, a senior South Korean presidential official said on Friday.” 6. DEPORTATION DIGEST: “‘It Feels Like I’m in a Nightmare’: Inside the First Deportation Flight to Iran,” by NYT’s Farnaz Fassihi and Hamed Aleaziz: “For decades, waves of Iranians fleeing persecution found protection in the United States, including many who were at first unauthorized but later gained asylum. … [DHS’ Tricia] McLaughlin said of the 54 Iranians deported on the flight, 23 had ties to terrorism, seven were on the terror watch list and five others were associated with human trafficking networks. … [At least nine people on the flight] repeatedly told American authorities that Iran would persecute them and that they feared for their lives. Among them were Christian converts, ethnic minorities and political dissidents.” Related read: Around the country, some immigrant parents are increasingly trying to secure short-term guardianship agreements so that someone will care for their children if they get deported, WaPo’s Ben Strauss and María Luisa Paúl report from Chicago.
| | | | | TALK OF THE TOWN | | Barack Obama surprised a flight of Korean War and Vietnam War veterans traveling to D.C. Jared Kushner’s Trump Tower plans in Serbia drew thousands of protesters in Belgrade today. BOOK CLUB: Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) is hitting the media circuit to promote his new book, “Unfettered” ($32) — which includes bleakly candid portrayals of his mental illness struggles and the retrospective assessment, excerpted yesterday in The Free Press, that “I should have quit” the 2022 Senate race after having a stroke. With the book out today, Fetterman appeared on “Fox & Friends” (where he said he “never got any outreach” from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer about the shutdown), went on Bari Weiss’ podcast (to discuss the state of the Democratic Party) and sat down with NPR’s Scott Detrow (to talk about his depression and his defense of Israel). But early reviews are not very flattering: NYT’s Jennifer Szalai calls the book “unrelentingly dour and mournful” and says “Fetterman offers generalized contempt instead of pointed arguments.” For WaPo, Karen Heller writes that the book is “a story exceptionally well told, enlightening and often humorous” … but also “a rather persuasive argument that Fetterman may lack the fortitude, temperament and commitment” to be a senator. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED last night at a special dinner celebration of the U.K.-U.S.Tech Prosperity Deal hosted by the British Embassy: James Roscoe, Michael Kratsios, Jim O’Neill, Dario Gil, Andrew Holland, Miriam Vogel, Chloe Autio, Niccolo de Masi, Brian Stone, Alicia Jackson, Imran Shafi, Celia Merzbacher, Mungo Woodifield, Stephanie Ashmore, Luke Stevens and Colin Moneymaker. MEDIA MOVE — Renita Jablonski is joining The Bulwark to work on podcasting and audio, per NYT’s Ben Mullin. She most recently has worked at WaPo. TRANSITIONS — Dezenhall Resources has added Natalie Kopco as VP and John Bates as senior director. Kopco previously worked at Washington Office and is an Amazon alum. Bates previously worked at Black Flag Partners. … Lex Politica has added Hannah Streitman as an associate and Nadin Linthorst as senior counsel. Streitman previously was a student at SMU. Linthorst previously worked at the FBI. … George Fatula is now a partner at White & Case. He previously worked at Bracewell. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn’t happen without our deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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