Playbook PM: Has inflation finally hit its peak?

Presented by PhRMA: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington.
May 11, 2022 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Eli Okun

Presented by

PhRMA

A customer pumps gas at an Exxon gas station, Tuesday, May 10, 2022, in Miami. Just as Americans gear up for summer road trips, the price of oil remains stubbornly high, pushing prices at the gas pump to painful heights. AAA said Tuesday, May 10, 2022, drivers are paying $4.37 for a gallon of regular gasoline. (AP Photo/Marta Lavandier)

Gas prices fell 6.1% in April, contributing to an overall inflation slowdown. | Marta Lavandier/AP Photo

INFLATION NATION — It may be getting better, but it's still bad. That was the overarching takeaway from this morning's consumer price index report. The toplines:

  • Prices rose by 0.3% in April, a much gentler monthly growth rate than the 1.2% we saw in March. Underlying that slowdown: a 6.1% drop in the price of gas from March. 
  • The annual rate of inflation was 8.3% over a year prior. It's the first time that it has slowed since August — raising hopes that we may have finally passed inflation's peak.

But there was still plenty to worry about, including a 0.9% increase in food prices. The gas price reprieve may not last long, as prices have ticked up more recently this month. Setting aside energy and food, the core prices rose twice as fast in April as in March. A home rent metric increased by the largest amount since 2006, per Reuters.

The big picture, writes NYT's Jeanna Smialek: "the pressures that have kept inflation elevated for months remain strong, a challenge for households who are trying to shoulder rising expenses and for the White House and Federal Reserve as they try to put the economy on a steadier path."

"While it is heartening to see that annual inflation moderated in April, the fact remains that inflation is unacceptably high," President JOE BIDEN responded in a statement, ahead of a trip to Illinois today where he'll talk about lowering food prices. The president also again urged Republicans on the Hill to pass the big China competitiveness bill and other legislation.

CRUNCH TIME IN PENNSYLVANIA — As KATHY BARNETTE surges into contention in the Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary, she's picking up air support from the Club for Growth, which endorsed her this morning and is launching a $2 million TV ad campaign, per NYT's Shane Goldmacher. Interesting context: "The ad buy took the Barnette team by surprise." Watch the biographical ad

— CNN's Dan Merica has a look at how Barnette emerged, writing that DONALD TRUMP's endorsement of MEHMET OZ in the race counterintuitively "opened a pathway for Barnette to run further to the right, and more in line with the 'MAGA movement.'" It's an interesting dynamic: Will primary voters prefer the Trump-endorsed candidate, or the Trumpiest candidate?

But, but, but: With great attention comes great scrutiny. Merica notes that both Barnette's "book and campaign website are sparse on details about her ties to the commonwealth." And the Washington Examiner's Salena Zito has a skeptical new piece up from Greensburg, where she writes, "A series of questions asked both verbally and in a text exchange with her campaign manager about her background for a story that was supposed to be a profile went unanswered with the exception of one — but that too was vague." Among the questions her campaign didn't answer: the name of her hometown, when she moved to Pennsylvania from Virginia (where she lived as of 2018), when she was in officer candidate school and more.

"Now that she is surging, her team is trying to run out the clock," Zito concludes.

Good Wednesday afternoon.

 

A message from PhRMA:

ICYMI: A majority of Americans reject so-called government "negotiation" once they learn it could restrict access and choice and chill the innovation of new treatments and cures. The survey also shows a majority find health care coverage costs unreasonable and a top priority health care issue for policymakers to address today.

 

CONGRESS

TODAY'S SENATE VOTE — Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) told reporters this morning that while he'd support a "clean" bill codifying Roe v. Wade, he will oppose the Women's Health Protection Act, which is heading for failure on the Senate floor this afternoon.

"They're trying to make people believe that this is the same thing as codifying Roe v. Wade. And I want you to know, it's not," Manchin said today, per Burgess Everett. "This is not the same. It expands abortion." Latest on the Senate vote from Alice Miranda Ollstein and Marianne LeVine

WaPo's Dave Weigel : "GOP's Roe messaging is better suited to news cycles, if not the long term. They've got a new Current Thing every week (Who was the Leaker? Do Dems condemn protesters outside justices' homes?), Dems just keep slamming the 'vote on doomed bill' button."

UKRAINE AID LATEST — The nearly $40 billion package has broad bipartisan support, but could it hit some last-minute snags? Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) told WaPo's Leigh Ann Caldwell that he'll hold up the bill because he wants an amendment vote to add an I.G. overseeing the money. And Sen. JOHN THUNE (R-S.D.) told reporters his conference has "a few issues" with the package.

COVID AID LATEST — Multiple rounds of Republican opposition have placed the Covid aid experts say is crucial for the country in "fresh political peril," with no clear path forward on even a $10 billion deal, much lower than the administration's original request, WaPo's Tony Romm reports. Even as major programs run out of money and public health advocates warn the country won't have enough money to handle a future surge, the GOP is holding firm on tying the aid package to an unrelated vote on immigration policy.

— In the Senate: Sen. MITT ROMNEY (Utah), the lead GOP negotiator on Covid aid, tells Romm that the blame lies with Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER, who could get the package passed if he just allowed votes on amendments.

— In the House: Meanwhile, House Dems are running in the opposite direction, as Appropriations Chair ROSA DELAURO (Conn.) preps a package that could restore global aid funding, driving the cost higher than $10 billion.

WHAT'S IN A NAME — Schumer apparently got the branding message from the White House: On the Senate floor today, he blasted "radical MAGA Republicans" in the states for restricting abortion.

— But two can play that game: "I am ultra MAGA," House GOP Conference Chair ELISE STEFANIK (N.Y.) declared this morning, per CNN's Mel Zanona. "And I'm proud of it."

FASHION STATEMENT — Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.) is wearing a shirt today that declares "no thanks," per NBC's Frank Thorp.

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

COMMITTEE LATEST — The Jan. 6 committee "is still finalizing its witness list and preparing to reach out to people it wants to testify publicly," CNN's Annie Grayer, Ryan Nobles, Jamie Gangel and Zachary Cohen report in an overview of the panel's public hearing plans. In addition to calling witnesses to testify (likely names: JEFF ROSEN, RICHARD DONOGHUE, MARC SHORT, GREG JACOB ), the committee is planning to use videos of some of its private interviews as well as from the insurrection itself. CNN reports that Trump is not likely to be asked to testify; jury's still out on MIKE PENCE, though testimony seems unlikely there, too.

 

DON'T MISS DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED:  Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today.

 
 

ALL POLITICS

LOOKING FOR SOME SUNSHINE — Some Democrats may be writing off Florida, but the party isn't giving up just yet: Dems are pouring in $15 million to a "Blue Shift Florida" voter organizing drive which, Gary Fineout writes, could amount to "Florida's last stand as a battleground state." This is the earliest that Florida Dems have started a coordinated campaign, with plans to hire hundreds of organizers and open dozens of offices — in part to convince donors not to stay away.

ON MESSAGE — From inflation to abortion, congressional Democrats are worried that the party isn't connecting well enough with voters, lacking the finesse to drive necessary turnout in the midterms, Sarah Ferris reports . Too wonky, too explanatory, not bold enough or not connected enough to Americans' real struggles — the diagnoses vary, but the messaging struggles have endured. "Inside the House Democratic Caucus, there's been a concerted push for members to use the power of their own emotions and life experiences to galvanize support for policies in the Capitol," Sarah writes. Among those galvanizing the caucus is California Rep. KATIE PORTER, whose recent speech about the price of bacon hit House Dems hard.

Notable quotable: Porter on House Dems failing to see the impact of inflation: "I had a colleague mention to me, 'We're not seeing it in the polls' … Well, you don't know what to ask."

2022 WATCH — Most top New York Democrats don't want Rep. TOM SUOZZI to primary Gov. KATHY HOCHUL, but he's forging ahead anyway, hoping to peel off moderates and capitalize on the resignation of Lt. Gov. BRIAN BENJAMIN, reports NYT's Nicholas Fandos . Despite his bid's long odds and the prospect of damaging party unity, Suozzi "has flouted the advice of allies" — even if it also costs Dems his seat in Congress. Amid Hochul's recent stumbles, "there are signs that weeks of public appeals may finally be finding an audience among New Yorkers who believe they have fresh reasons to doubt the governor or more progressive alternatives."

Notable quotable: "He really does have a big heart and believes in traditional Democratic values of taking care of the poor and a big social safety net," says Rep. KATHLEEN RICE. "I just think that if he had been able to check his ego earlier in his career, he could have already run for president."

ABORTION FALLOUT

THE VIEW FROM BLUE-STATE AMERICA — Some Democratic-led states are pledging to become abortion sanctuaries where other Americans can travel to access the procedure if and when the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade. But that'll be a costly promise, report Lisa Kashinsky, Shia Kapos and Victoria Colliver : "Groups that operate clinics and run abortion access funds warn that they'll need more money, more providers and more space to help care for the influx of people." So the "medical migration" could end up putting budgetary and other legislative pressures on Democratic statehouses.

POLL OF THE DAY — The Supreme Court's approval rating has dropped to a notably low 38% in the latest Monmouth poll out today , even as Republicans' sentiment has turned more favorable. "Americans' views of abortion access have remained stable. More than 6 in 10 Americans support keeping the procedure legal — either always legal (33%) or with some limitations (31%)." If SCOTUS does strike down Roe v. Wade, support for Congress to pass a national ban is in the gutter — just 9%.

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

AWFUL MILESTONE — Fatal drug overdoses in America hit a record 107,622 last year, per new data released today. That's up 14.9% from 2020, with the majority of the deaths coming from fentanyl. More from USA Today

DEPT. OF THE FUTURE — "Five U.S. states order a metaverse casino with alleged ties to Russia to halt sale of NFTs," by CNBC's Paige Tortorelli, Eamon Javers and Scott Zamost

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

FOR YOUR RADAR — Al Jazeera correspondent SHIREEN ABU AKLEH, a Palestinian-American dual national, was killed Wednesday when Israeli forces reportedly shot her in the head in the West Bank. "Abu Akleh was wearing a press vest and was standing with other journalists when she was killed," reports Al Jazeera's Zena Al Tahhan.

WAR IN UKRAINE

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS …

— Ukraine said its forces had pushed Russia farther back in the Kharkiv area. Vivid BBC dispatch from the front lines

— The EU's Russian oil embargo stumbled over resistance from Hungary, as talks concluded for the day without a deal. More from the NYT

— For the first time, Russian soldiers will go on trial for alleged war crimes in Ukraine, as the prosecutor-general announced cases against three prisoners of war. More from the Guardian

TOP-ED — "What Ukrainian mothers taught me about this war," by first lady JILL BIDEN for CNN

PLAYBOOKERS

OUT AND ABOUT — To mark Europe Day, the EU delegation to the U.S. held a celebration for its first ever Transatlantic Bridge Awards at the EU ambassador's residence Monday evening. José Andrés (who appeared via video message), Justice Stephen Breyer and Deborah Rutter were honored with the awards. Also SPOTTED: A.G. Merrick Garland, Justice Amy Coney Barrett, DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, USTR Katherine Tai, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Reps. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) and Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), Terry and Dorothy McAuliffe, Martin O'Malley, Margaret Brennan, Kurt Bardella and Miro Korenha, retired Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, Adrienne Arsht and Nate Mook.

The Congressional Football Game had a kickoff reception Tuesday night at the National Indian Gaming Association, where co-captains Reps. Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.) and Rodney Davis (R-Ill.) gave remarks. The game will benefit U.S. Capitol Police officers. SPOTTED: Ken Harvey, John Booty, Ken Edmonds, Brendon Plack, Joe Maloney, Michael Dendas, Lyndon Boozer, Lindsey Ledwin, Bill Sells and Glenn LeMunyon.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Morgan Gress Johnson is now head of U.S. government comms at Palantir. She previously was director of strategic comms at Invariant, and is a Brunswick Group alum.

MEDIA MOVES — WaPo is creating a new bureau in Kyiv, with Isabelle Khurshudyan as Ukraine bureau chief and Max Bearak as chief Ukraine correspondent. Announcement

BONUS BIRTHDAYS: DAGA's Emily Trifone Austin Stevens of Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin's office

 

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California Today: Return of the jacarandas

The annual splash of jacaranda flowers is here. But what's the story behind the tree that many love, and others not so much?

By Brian Gallagher

It's Wednesday. The story behind Southern California's annual riot of violet. Plus, water usage is up significantly despite the drought.

Jacaranda blossoms in the Los Feliz neighborhood of Los Angeles on Saturday.Allison Zaucha for The New York Times

Every year, about this time, Stephanie Carrie, who started the Trees of L.A. Instagram account, gets the same question: "Someone said, 'I saw a tree the other day, Stephanie. I wanted to ask you what it was?' I said, 'Did it have purple flowers? It's a jacaranda.' And I'm like, Oh, my god, how many years have you lived in Los Angeles?"

Carrie, who lives in Culver City, started the account to counteract "tree blindness," the particularly urban syndrome of seeing but not noticing a city's streetside forestry. She is grateful to the jacarandas for their work.

"The blooms are so extreme and incredible that it's like the first time someone actually notices that there's a tree," she said of the flowering, typically between April and June. "There's no better remedy for curing tree blindness than a jacaranda in bloom."

Chances are, if you live in Southern California, your neighborhood park has exploded in purple over the past few weeks. Sidewalks are littered with the sticky blossoms. Maybe you've even seen a residential street transformed into a technicolor tree tunnel.

Whatever color you use to describe jacarandas — blue and purple are common, but violet, lavender and even mauve come up — their flowers are a vivid, almost louche presence in the weeks before Memorial Day. The trees paint the sky each year in San Diego, Santa Barbara, Santa Ana and, most famously, Los Angeles.

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Allison Zaucha for The New York Times

According to the most recent data available, there were 148,000 jacarandas in Los Angeles. And while they aren't the most numerous trees in the city — that would be the Italian cypress at 450,000 — they are certainly among the most distinctive.

Jacarandas are a hallmark of the streetscape, used as metaphors and ambience by writers including Raymond Chandler, Joan Didion and Walter Mosley. Eve Babitz even named the dissolute ingénue protagonist of "Sex and Rage" Jacaranda Leven.

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Like palm, orange and eucalyptus trees — the other arboreal eminencies of Southern California — jacarandas are not native to the region. Jacaranda mimosifolia, the blue species in question, came from South America originally and were made popular in California in the early 20th century by the horticulturist Kate Sessions. She planted them in her work as a landscape designer in San Diego, but they soon caught on even farther north.

Their proliferation coincided with the population boom of Los Angeles — which grew to 2.5 million people in 1960 from 576,000 in 1920 — and the blue of their flowers became a shade of the Southern California idea in the American imagination.

D.J. Waldie, an author whose memoir, "Holy Land," chronicles growing up in Lakewood, one of the first planned communities in the United States, said the jacarandas were an advertisement for the place.

"The developers of tract-house suburbs in Southern California planted very consciously an exotic tree," Waldie told me.

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"We tend to think of suburban places in the early '50s as being uniform, and frankly kind of uninteresting places. And yet here, in front of a quite ordinary house, you have this glorious blue, purple-blue interloper from the jungle."

Rachel Malarich, the Los Angeles city forest officer, said the 19,182 publicly managed jacarandas are mostly in "fair to very good" condition despite the oldest ones potentially nearing the end of their normal life spans.

And it shows. Carrie said that around this time every year, her Instagram feed is awash with jacarandas.

"People who do not normally take pictures of trees suddenly have these gorgeous photos of jacarandas," she said. "On my account, I noticed in general that if there are any flowers, the likes go up by hundreds and hundreds."

Despite the social media clout, jacarandas are not universally beloved, and any post marveling at their beauty will probably get comments on both their nonnative status and the irksome petals they drop at the end of their spring flourish.

But Malarich finds the fallen blooms part of the charm. "It is stunning just to see that symmetry," she said. "All of a sudden, there's a circle on the ground of these evenly spaced flowers that have just fallen naturally from the tree and created this carpet."

The best way to enjoy the jacarandas, Waldie says, is not very L.A.: no Instagram and no car.

"Jacarandas are particularly appealing for pedestrians. They have a very slight but definite scent. Even as one walks over the fallen flowers, they often make a pleasant little popping sound as you tread over them," he said. "It's an olfactory and aural experience, both ear and nose — and eye, also. All the senses are engaged."

For more:

Brian Gallagher is a senior staff editor for The New York Times, based in California.

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If you read one story, make it this

For tens of millions of Americans, the good times are right now.

Sprinklers watering a patch of grass on the sidewalk in Los Feliz.Etienne Laurent/EPA, via Shutterstock

The rest of the news

  • Water use: Californians used significantly more water in March 2022 than they did in March 2020 despite the worsening drought, The Associated Press reports.
  • Lawmaker reveals abortion: Mia Bonta, a Democratic assemblywoman, disclosed that she had an abortion when she was 21, joining other public figures who have recently discussed their experiences with abortion, The Associated Press reports.
  • Rise in gun violence: A researcher at U.C. Davis estimates that there are roughly 15 million more guns in circulation than there would be without the pandemic.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • Los Angeles mayor investigation: An investigation into the office of Mayor Eric Garcetti found that the mayor was probably aware of inappropriate behavior by his former top aide, The Los Angeles Times reports.
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
  • Corrections strike: The union representing Fresno County corrections officers plans to strike at the end of the month over unsafe and understaffed working conditions, The Fresno Bee reports.
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
Linda Xiao for The New York Times

What we're eating

24 recipes that make the most of eggs.

A mix of tents, cabins and recreational vehicles at Jalama Beach in 2020.George Rose/Getty Images

Where we're traveling

Today's tip comes from Natalie Russell, who lives in Pasadena:

"I'm almost reluctant to share my travel tip because it feels a little bit like giving away a secret beach, but I love camping at Jalama Beach in Santa Barbara County. The road to get there off Highway 1 is long and winding and there is no cellphone service when you arrive. Instead you are rewarded with blissful isolation and miles of beautiful, windy beach, perfect for flying kites, splashing in the surf, and even a little tidepooling. There are picnic areas, small cabins to rent, RV and tent camping, and a playground, a small store, and the grill, home of 'the world famous Jalama Burger.' If you are lucky enough to score one of the beachfront campsites, mornings are like waking up to a piece of your own private paradise."

Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com. We'll be sharing more in upcoming editions of the newsletter.

And before you go, some good news

Stuart Rembaum and Jim Post weren't looking for lasting love when they met in 2005 through a gay hiking club in the Bay Area. But hiking led to dating and, eventually, a recognition that despite their differences, the two shared a sensibility about relationships.

Rembaum is a quiet and devoted worrier, while Post is more outgoing and carefree. But both agree that a perfect evening includes a crossword puzzle and listening to jazz music in the company of Rembaum's beloved cat, Minnie.

Read more from The Times about their love story and recent wedding.

Thanks for reading. We'll be back tomorrow.

P.S. Here's today's Mini Crossword, and a clue: New York City mayor Adams (4 letters).

Soumya Karlamangla and Mariel Wamsley contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.

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