Checking in on the big gubernatorial races

Presented by Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington.
Sep 07, 2022 View in browser
 
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By Eli Okun

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FILE - Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams talks to the reporters May 24, 2022, in Atlanta. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp's decision to defy Donald Trump and ratify Joe Biden's presidential electors in 2020 has won Kemp credit with some Democrats. Heading into the November election, Democratic nominee Abrams needs those voters in her column. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson, File)

Democrats are worried that Stacey Abrams is struggling to catch Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp. | Brynn Anderson, File/AP Photo

They sometimes get less attention than the battle for control of Congress, but campaigns for governor's mansions will have a major impact on Americans' lives — and elections — in the years to come. Here's the latest on a suite of key races:

— Georgia: Democrats are worried that STACEY ABRAMS is struggling to catch Gov. BRIAN KEMP, having lost some support among Black men and failed to peel off enough moderate Republicans, NYT's Maya King and Reid Epstein report from Newnan. Abrams spent years as a Democratic hero who flipped the state in 2020, but "her struggles have some Georgia Democrats wondering if the Abrams model — seeking to expand the universe of voters to fit her politics — is truly better than trying to capture 50 percent of the voters who exist now." Local leaders have told the campaign they're worried.

FiveThirtyEight's Geoffrey Skelley examines why Abrams is in worse shape than Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK: The polling gap between their two races is unusual. "There are a number of potential explanations for this gap, but the biggest factor might be incumbency and, more importantly, that Georgia's top two races feature incumbents from different parties."

— Michigan: Another new poll finds Democratic Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER with a commanding lead over GOP challenger TUDOR DIXON: She's up 48% to 35% in a Detroit News/WDIV survey. Thirty-four percent of voters cite abortion and women's rights as their No. 1 issue in the election, 8 points ahead of inflation and the cost of living. Whitmer leads Dixon by 27 points among women.

Pollster RICHARD CZUBA "said he's now seeing signs of a 'magenta wave' of female voters and independent voters beginning to form for November because of the abortion debate," writes the News' Craig Mauger. "'Until someone can stop that conversation or override that conversation, that wave is going to keep building,' the pollster said."

— Texas: Gov. GREG ABBOTT leads BETO O'ROURKE by 7 points, 49% to 42%, in a new poll from the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston and Texas Southern University, per Bloomberg. That's a growing margin for the Republican, who led by 5 in July.

— Pennsylvania: If Republican DOUG MASTRIANO wins the gubernatorial race, a leading contender to be his secretary of the commonwealth is TONI SHUPPE, a QAnon-tied activist whose conspiracy theories extend well beyond just election fraud, Vice's Cameron Joseph reports . "[T]he administration of the 2024 presidential election in the nation's largest swing state could be in the hands of two QAnon-linked, election-denying conspiracy theorists who are hell-bent on upending the current election system."

— Massachusetts: Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the Massachusetts gubernatorial race from likely Democratic to safe Democratic in the wake of GEOFF DIEHL's GOP primary victory. He'll face Democratic A.G. MAURA HEALEY in the general. They also yanked the Alaska House race from safe Republican to toss-up, and shifted two districts in Michigan and Washington state from toss-up to leaning Democratic. "[W]e still see the Republicans as considerable favorites to flip the House," Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman write. "It's just that in this peculiar election year, the political signals are mixed."

— Illinois: "'Don't Tell Me I'm Not Allowed to Attack Back': JB Pritzker Will Gladly Be Democrats' Flamethrower," by Vanity Fair's Eric Lutz: "The Illinois governor, wealthy hotel heir, and 2008 Hillary Clinton campaign adviser has become an unlikely hero on the left. He's built a progressive record and is willing to throw barbs. 'Let me analogize this to the early days of the end of the Weimar Republic,' Pritzker tells Vanity Fair."

INSIDE THE POST — Amid new rumbling about driftless leadership and potential layoffs, WaPo Publisher FRED RYAN and other leaders addressed the Post newsroom staff this morning at One Franklin Square. An upbeat and boosterish presentation was punctuated by news of the impending departure of one of Ryan's top deputies — SHAILESH PRAKASH , the Post's longtime technology chief and architect of its newsroom software business, Arc XP. Ryan announced Praikash will be leaving the Post later this year for a senior position at Google.

Ryan and others did not take live questions, but before the gathering broke, education writer VALERIE STRAUSS publicly confronted Ryan about the return-to-office policy, pointedly asking if reporters' jobs were at risk if they did not come to the newsroom. Ryan said he "wasn't going to get into a debate," while Strauss continued pressing: "We're journalists, Fred," she said, before Ryan abruptly ended the exchange, confirming the three-day-a-week policy stands. Post spokespeople and Strauss did not immediately return requests for comment.

Good Wednesday afternoon. New on the schedule: Monkeypox coordinator BOB FENTON and deputy coordinator DEMETRE DASKALAKIS will join the White House briefing today.

 

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The FDA has missed deadline after deadline to protect our kids from nicotine-loaded flavored e-cigarettes, defying Congress and the courts and leaving these addictive products on the market.

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FDA: End the delays. Protect kids today by eliminating flavored e-cigarettes.

 

CONGRESS

WHIP COUNT — Sen. RON JOHNSON (R-Wis.) said he will not support the bill to codify same-sex and interracial marriage rights in its current form, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Lawrence Andrea revealed from a recording he obtained of Johnson's comments last week. Johnson said the Supreme Court decision legalizing same-sex marriage was "probably" wrongly decided. And he said that his July statement that he had "no reason to oppose" the bill was just to get the press "off my backs." Still, Johnson expressed some openness: "At the same time, I don't want to see millions of lives disrupted either. To me, that was a wound that was healed. Let it go, OK. Move on, OK."

FUNDING FIGHT — Senate Republicans are signaling they may throw up roadblocks to the Biden administration's request for $27 billion to fight Covid-19 and monkeypox, Marianne LeVine and Burgess Everett report. GOP senators said they're skeptical of the money's necessity and Democrats' excess spending. The administration argues that the funding is critical for public health, but on the Hill, "Democrats are skeptical that Covid and monkeypox aid will make it into a final short-term funding package."

ON THE COVER — Wesley Lowery has a big profile of Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.) in GQ. One striking moment: He asks if she or someone like her could be president. "I hold two contradictory things [in mind] at the same time. One is just the relentless belief that anything is possible," she says, tearing up. "But at the same time, my experience here has given me a front-row seat to how deeply and unconsciously, as well as consciously, so many people in this country hate women. And they hate women of color. People ask me questions about the future. And realistically, I can't even tell you if I'm going to be alive in September." And yet, Lowery writes, her core belief is that "[t]he reality we wish for may be closer than we think."

ALL POLITICS

PAST MASTERS — HuffPost's Kevin Robillard digs up more emails that BLAKE MASTERS sent to his co-op at Stanford in 2006, when the now-GOP Senate nominee in Arizona said voting was meaningless or even immoral. Another striking line from Masters: "The story we've been told about 9/11 may indeed be correct, but blindly accepting it would be an error (as would accepting 'conspiracy theories' without reasonable possibilities/evidence presented)." His libertarianism and contrarianism come through repeatedly in the messages, but he also asks for "South Park" DVDs and touts the virtues of soccer over NASCAR.

RANKED-CHOICE RAGE — In the wake of Democrats' special-election upset in Alaska, Republicans are increasingly attacking the ranked-choice system itself. NRCC Chair TOM EMMER (R-Minn.) was the latest to do so today: "Ranked-choice voting, I think, is unconstitutional," he told The Hill's Emily Brooks.

THE TRUTH IS OUT THERE — National File's NOEL FRITSCH confirmed that his outlet got ASHLEY BIDEN's diary from a Project Veritas employee in October 2020, The Intercept's Ryan Grim reports. But "Fritsch said that [JAMES] O'KEEFE, as far as he knew, did not authorize the leak. 'It's kind of ironic, we had to sort of "Veritas" Veritas in order to get the thing broken and out into the news.'"

THE WHITE HOUSE

MARK YOUR CALENDARS — President JOE BIDEN will head to Boston on Monday to speak about his "Cancer Moonshot" initiative that aims to end cancer, the White House said. The historical parallels are prominent: He's speaking at the JOHN F. KENNEDY Library and Museum on the 60th anniversary of Kennedy's own "Moonshot" speech.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 

POLICY CORNER

IRA IMPACT — Democrats' Inflation Reduction Act has spurred announcements of several major clean energy projects in the weeks since it became law, NYT's Jack Ewing and Ivan Penn report. Some of the timing was coincidental, but "the legislation gives companies more confidence that they can earn a return on their bets." Still, plenty of hurdles remain for the country's clean energy transition, from raw materials to thorny approval processes.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

DESERT DEVELOPMENT — The U.S. military is working on plans to create a military testing facility in Saudi Arabia, perhaps to be called the Red Sands Integrated Experimentation Center, NBC's Courtney Kube scooped . Among the technologies the site could work on are methods to counter unmanned drones and "integrated air and missile defense capabilities." The plans aren't final yet, but CENTCOM found support from regional allies for the idea last month. It could spark criticism from human rights advocates, though, over deepening ties with the repressive Saudi regime.

BY THE NUMBERS — For the fourth consecutive month, the U.S. trade gap shrank in July, per new Commerce Department data out today. The deficit narrowed 12.6% to $70.65 billion, thanks to falling U.S. imports and growing exports, per WSJ's Harriet Torry. "Although the U.S. trade deficit has narrowed in recent months, it remains wide by historical comparison."

IMMIGRATION FILES — WaPo's Antonio Olivo travels from Del Rio, Texas, to D.C. for an eye-opening look at the tens of thousands of migrants being bused from the border to the Northeast. Though Texas Gov. GREG ABBOTT and Arizona Gov. DOUG DUCEY have intended the buses as a political statement, some advocates and immigrants welcome the free ride — and there's "no sign of anyone at the Val Verde center being forced or tricked into going to D.C. or New York — despite claims from [D.C. Mayor MURIEL] BOWSER and New York Mayor ERIC ADAMS." Still, the arrivals are straining aid systems in D.C., where as many as 15% of the migrants are choosing to remain rather than continue on to other destinations.

THE PANDEMIC

MASK MANDATES — The federal government's Head Start programs still require masks for teachers and children as young as 2, one of the last remaining mask mandates despite updated CDC guidelines that don't recommend the practice in areas without high local transmission, NYT's Dana Goldstein reports . Now, the requirements are "complicating both enrollment and hiring" in the states where they remain in effect, on top of existing struggles with falling numbers of kids and teacher shortages.

MEDIAWATCH

WHISKEY TANGO FOXTROT — "Police search county official's home in connection with reporter's killing," by the Las Vegas Review-Journal's Briana Erickson, Sabrina Schnur and Glenn Puit: "Around 7 a.m., reporters observed uniformed officers and police vehicles outside the home of Clark County Public Administrator ROBERT TELLES, who had been the focus of stories by [JEFF] GERMAN. … German spent months reporting on the turmoil surrounding Robert Telles' oversight of the office. The 45-year-old Democrat lost his re-election bid in June's primary after German's findings were published."

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

MEDIA MOVE — Kirk McDonald is joining CNN's "Inside Politics Sunday" as executive producer. He most recently was senior broadcast producer for "The Situation Room."

WHITE HOUSE MOVES — Ellen Qualls has left the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, where she was chief comms officer, to return to comms consulting. Amy Alexander is replacing her. She most recently was senior strategic communicator in the VA Office of Information and Technology's IT strategic comms division. Lisa Zagaroli has also come on as speechwriter. She most recently worked for the FAA for 13 years.

TRANSITIONS — Marta Dehmlow Hernandez is now senior director of comms at the Aerospace Industries Association. She most recently was comms director for the Senate Armed Services GOP. … Kathy O'Neill is now a partner with Cooley LLP's D.C. office. She previously was senior director of investigations and litigation with DOJ's Antitrust Division. … Meredith Hoing is now media relations manager at Corning. She most recently was director for earned media at Edelman Global Advisory, and is a John Kennedy and Alex Mooney alum. …

… Andrew Becht is now scheduling director for Rep. Charlie Crist's (D-Fla.) gubernatorial campaign. He previously was director of operations for Crist's congressional office. … Sen. Chris Coons' (D-Del.) office has added Joel Kabot as speechwriter and César Vargas-Torrico as press assistant. Kabot previously was an editor at the University of Maryland, Baltimore and is an alum of The Hill. Vargas-Torrico most recently was a staff assistant and legislative correspondent for Rep. Norma Torres (D-Calif.). … Shayla Ragimov is now director of carbon management at Boundary Stone Partners. She previously was manager of research at the Climate Leadership Council.

STAFFING UP — Kevin Butterfield has been appointed director of the John W. Kluge Center at the Library of Congress. He most recently was executive director of the Fred W. Smith National Library for the Study of George Washington at Mount Vernon.

ENGAGED — Madeline Bryant, director of operations for Rep. Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.), and Andrew Kelley, legislative assistant for Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), got engaged Friday in Rogers, Ark. They celebrated with a surprise party surrounded by family and friends. The couple met when they were both University of Arkansas students interning for Boozman in D.C.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Lauren Blair Bianchi, SVP for public affairs at the Consumer Bankers Association and Phillip Bianchi , public policy adviser at Squire Patton Boggs, this morning welcomed Elizabeth Jane (Betsy) Bianchi, who came in at 6 lbs, 7.3 oz. Pic

 

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California Today: Historic heat pushes power to the brink

As several cities in Northern California set records, some experts are trying to draw more attention to the effects of hot weather.

It's Wednesday. It's still dangerously hot in California. Plus, a shift in tech manufacturing.

A worker with the Coachella Valley Rescue Mission's mobile outreach unit handed out water in Indio on Tuesday.Rachel Bujalski for The New York Times

On Tuesday, the heat dome punishing the West continued its suffocating stay over California, sending temperatures to all-time highs, making it harder to fight the wildfires now burning in various parts of the state and contributing to any post-holiday malaise residents may have been experiencing.

But the state avoided widespread blackouts.

Despite breaking a 16-year-old record for electricity use, California averted a statewide order for utilities to turn off the lights after increasingly dire warnings from state leaders. At one point Tuesday, the state sent emergency phone alerts imploring residents to shut off unnecessary power — or risk imminent outages.

As Lupe Mani succinctly put it: "We're suffering with this heat wave."

I met Mani, 24, at the beach in Santa Monica on Tuesday afternoon. She'd driven an hour and a half with two of her girlfriends and one of their children from Menifee, not far from where the deadly Fairview fire was chewing through thousands of acres, prompting evacuation orders and school closures.

Evening outages occurred in three Bay Area cities — Healdsburg, Palo Alto and Petaluma — according to their social media accounts. And PG&E said it shut off power to 12,000 residents in Davis to avoid a heat-related equipment failure. But energy grid officials said after sunset that Californians' quick conservation scramble made a difference in avoiding state-ordered rolling blackouts.

If this weeklong ordeal has left you feeling worn down and anxious about life in the future in our rapidly warming region, you're not alone — nor are you unjustified, according to experts.

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This extreme heat has been "extraordinary in almost every dimension except humidity," Daniel L. Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, told my colleague.

The scorching heat itself is dangerous, of course. But what has made this heat wave stand out is its "mind-blowing" duration, he said.

"Sacramento has rarely seen temperatures of 110 degrees plus for three, four days on end," Swain said. (Sacramentans endured heat that reached a record-breaking high of 116 degrees on Tuesday — so hot that even Phoenix hasn't reached that mark this year.)

As is the case for many of California's biggest climate challenges — think of wildfires and the drought — extreme heat is likely to become a permanent fixture of life, and communities are scrambling to adapt.

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In Los Angeles, Marta Segura's new job is to help sound the alarm about extreme heat as the city's new chief heat officer. It's an expansion of her role running Los Angeles's Climate Emergency Mobilization Office, but Segura said the new title was meant to be a bit more specific.

"Extreme heat is Los Angeles's primary climate hazard," she told me. "We want the public to understand that it is the primary climate hazard, and we want the state and federal government to get that message."

Segura cited a federal risk index that showed Los Angeles County had the highest vulnerability to natural hazards of any county in the nation.

That's largely because of the way that heat compounds other types of dangers. It exacerbates health conditions and makes communities that are already vulnerable more so because the heat causes air pollution to stagnate.

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Increasingly, scientists and policymakers are pushing to treat extreme heat events more like other disasters. Right now, they say, death and sickness that is caused by extreme heat is vastly underestimated.

Last year, Dr. David Eisenman, the director of the University of California, Los Angeles's Center for Public Health and Disasters, told me that the state was one of relatively few to implement worker-safety regulations regarding heat. Gov. Gavin Newsom has a bill on his desk that would start a framework for the state to rank heat waves. And air-conditioner technology is getting better, which means that cheaper, more energy-efficient units are more widely accessible than in years past.

Still, Eisenman said, there's a lot left that must be done. The results could save countless lives.

The Quang Chau Industrial Park, which includes Foxconn factories, in Bac Giang Province, Vietnam. Linh Pham for The New York Times

If you read one story, make it this

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A firefighter battling the Fairview fire Monday near Hemet.Ethan Swope/Associated Press

The rest of the news

  • Wildfires: Firefighters across California endured a scorching day battling blazes that ripped through tinder-dry brush and grass, including one fire that killed two people on Monday as it roared through a canyon.
  • Blackouts: As the heat dome over the West persisted, the manager of California's electric grid urged consumers to reduce their usage to avoid rolling blackouts. Those warnings are expected to continue this week.
  • Remedial classes: Awaiting Newsom's signature is a bill that would mostly ban remedial math and English classes, which would affect more than 40 colleges that offer those classes, The LAist reports.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • Cyberattack: Los Angeles school officials scrambled to open classrooms on Tuesday amid a cyberattack on the Los Angeles Unified School District, the nation's second-largest school system, The Los Angeles Times reports.
  • Controller: The former Los Angeles city controller Laura Chick waded into the Nov. 8 race for her old job, issuing an open letter that accused one candidate, Kenneth Mejia, of being an extremist, The Los Angeles Times reports.
  • Fraud scheme: A former stockbroker from Chino Hills was sentenced to six and a half years in prison after pleading guilty to running a securities fraud scheme that targeted low-income Latinos, The Los Angeles Times reports.
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
  • Heat wave: A school in Fresno Unified sent students home early because of the dangerous combination of the current heat wave and air-conditioning failures, The Fresno Bee reports.
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • Teacher housing: The Milpitas Unified School District is asking families to rent out rooms in their homes to teachers who have been priced out by soaring Silicon Valley rents, The Mercury News reports.
  • Covid rebound: While some areas in San Francisco like the Financial District are still struggling to attain their former economic vitality, the Haight-Ashbury is bouncing back, The San Francisco Chronicle reports.
David Malosh for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.

What we're eating

Roasted broccoli grain bowl.

Tell us

Californians: Have growing concerns about climate change affected how you live your life? Have you made any changes? If so, we want to hear about them. (Are you driving less, eating differently or changing your job?)

Email us at CAToday@nytimes.com. Please include your name and the city you live in.

This is part of a live event that The Times is hosting in San Francisco on Oct. 12 examining our collective response to the climate challenge. Learn more.

Mohamed Messara/EPA, via Shutterstock

And before you go, some good news

Anna Cho was working as a video game artist, stretched thin and on the job 12 hours a day, when her mother was diagnosed with endometrial cancer in 2013. Her mother died soon after.

Cho, living in Los Angeles, remembers feeling disconnected from everything. She was burned out at work. She felt unsure of her place in the world.

She started taking pottery classes in West Los Angeles to improve her mental health. And, in the process, she found that working with clay soothed her.

"It was mind-blowing," Cho told The Los Angeles Times. "I thought that perhaps I'd find a new hobby and like-minded community, but it was more than that. There were a lot of older women at the studio and I loved that. After losing my own mother, it was so nice to be around them."

That's how Cho began a new career in pottery and woodworking. Read the full story from the Los Angeles Times.

Thanks for reading. We'll be back tomorrow.

Soumya Karlamangla, Maia Coleman, Isabella Grullón Paz and Briana Scalia contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.

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