A surge, not a tsunami, at the border

Presented by PhRMA: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington.
May 12, 2023 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Bethany Irvine and Eli Okun

Presented by

PhRMA

X MARKS THE SPOT — The Congressional Budget Office dropped a new report this morning warning there is a “significant risk” that the government could run out of funds sometime in the first two weeks of June. If the cash holds out till June 15, however, quarterly tax receipts and new emergency measures would likely delay the cliff “through at least the end of July.” The agency recognized an “unusually high degree of uncertainty” in its estimate. More from Caitlin Emma and Jennifer Scholtes

MAKING MOVES — President JOE BIDEN nominated the World Bank’s ADRIANA KUGLER as a Federal Reserve governor and moved to elevate PHILIP JEFFERSON as vice chair, reported. Kugler, who is Colombian-American, would be the first Hispanic Fed governor if confirmed, Victoria Guida reports.

— Meanwhile, at the State Department, Secretary ANTONY BLINKEN announced the retirement of veteran diplomat WENDY SHERMAN, WSJ’s Vivian Salama reports. Now deputy secretary, Sherman handled North Korea policy under President BILL CLINTON, Iran under BARACK OBAMA and China under Biden.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection Police monitor as migrants from a group of 50, who were chosen by the Mexican

Fears of an unprecedented influx of migrants did not immediately materialize in the hours after the expiration of Title 42, the pandemic-era protocol that allowed the U.S. to turn back most asylum-seekers at the southern border. | AP

TITLE 42 FALLOUT — Fears of an unprecedented influx of migrants did not immediately materialize in the hours after the expiration of Title 42, the pandemic-era protocol that allowed the U.S. to turn back most asylum-seekers at the southern border.

While there was a surge in illegal border crossings reported earlier in the week, NYT’s Eileen Sullivan reports from El Paso, Texas, that “[f]ewer than 10,000 migrants were caught crossing the border on Thursday, during Title 42’s final hours.” NYT’s Jack Healy, meanwhile, reports an even quieter scene at a border-wall gap in Yuma, Ariz.

On a White House call with reporters this morning, Homeland Security official BLAS NUÑEZ-NETO said border officials “continue to encounter high levels of non-citizens at the border, but we did not see a substantial increase overnight or an influx at midnight,” WSJ’s Sabrina Siddiqui reports.

Still, officials are seeking to reassure the public that the administration is prepared for whatever may yet come. “Our plan is going to take some time to show results,” Homeland Security Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS told CBS this morning. “People are going to see our plan take hold and it will take time and it will succeed.”

Meanwhile, at the White House … Migration talks are likely to dominate Biden’s scheduled meeting with Spanish PM PEDRO SÁNCHEZ today, as the U.S., Spain and Canada team up to create migration hubs in Latin America for asylum seekers as part of the administration’s newly tightened immigration policies, AP’s Colleen Long reports. The agreement between the three nations is “meant to incentivize migrants to apply for asylum online where they are.”

And on the Hill … Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY has given Rep. DAN CRENSHAW (R-Texas) the go-ahead to lead a task force focused on battling Mexican drug cartels, Olivia Beavers scoops. The move comes after Crenshaw tangled with McCarthy over anti-cartel language in the immigration bill the House ended up passing yesterday. “Until now, Congress has not taken this threat seriously nor have we shown the American people that we have a plan to deal with these transnational criminal organizations,” Crenshaw said in a statement to Olivia.

For your radar HHS announced an unaccompanied Honduran migrant teen under the care of the Office of Refugee Resettlement died Wednesday at a Safety Harbor, Fla., shelter, CNN’s Priscilla Alvarez, Rosa Flores, Florencia Trucco and Rebekah Riess report. An investigation is underway.

Related reads: “Amid confusion along U.S.-Mexico border, El Paso pastors provide migrants with shelter and counsel,” by AP’s Giovanna Dell’orto … “Border Security Expo draws Homeland Security top brass as El Paso faces migration crisis,” by the El Paso Times’ Lauren Villagran … “Scenes from the U.S.-Mexico border amid expiration of Title 42,” by AP’s Anita Snow

Happy Friday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop us a line at birvine@politico.com and eokun@politico.com.

 

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THE DEBT LIMIT

THE OUTLINES OF A DEAL? — Rep. GARRET GRAVES (R-La.) has laid out to reporters four planks of a possible deal to raise the debt limit, perhaps inching toward a resolution, NBC’s Sahil Kapur, Scott Wong and Garrett Haake report.

  • Two of the four ideas seem like they’d be relatively easy for Democrats to swallow: (1) clawing back unspent Covid money and (2) pushing through energy permitting reform. (Of course, Democrats maintain officially that they’re not negotiating on anything for raising the debt ceiling.)
  • The other two would be a much heavier lift: (3) government spending caps and (4) stricter work requirements for social safety net programs.
  • Notably not among the four: unwinding the Inflation Reduction Act.

YELLEN WARNIN’ — “Yellen Says ‘We Have to Default’ on Something If Congress Fails,” by Bloomberg’s Christopher Condon and Annmarie Hordern

WHO’S AT DEFAULT — The defense industry would see massive pain this year if the U.S. slides into default on its debt, WSJ’s Doug Cameron and Matt Grossman report. Cuts to military spending would have a significant impact on the private-sector machinery of national security, while even a one-year continuing resolution “likely would inflate the costs of military programs, delay the launch of new ones and prevent production increases.”

CLICKER — “Think you can tame the national debt? Play our budget game,” by WaPo’s Szu Yu Chen, Chris Alcantara and Jeff Stein

2024 WATCH

HE’S RUNNING? — New Hampshire Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU tells WaPo’s Theo Meyer and Leigh Ann Caldwell that he’s “leaning towards” jumping into the presidential race, with a decision coming in about a month.

THIRD PARTY DREAMING — JOE LIEBERMAN tells Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser that No Labels will launch a nominating committee within the next couple of months to begin putting together possibilities for a centrist presidential ticket.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

THE BIGGEST ELECTION YOU'RE NOT PAYING ATTENTION TO —  After two decades in power, Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN is facing what “is expected to be the closest race in the country’s recent electoral history,” Leyla Aksu reports. Expect results to start trickling in Sunday night.

 

DON’T MISS THE POLITICO ENERGY SUMMIT: A new world energy order is emerging and America’s place in it is at a critical juncture. Join POLITICO on Thursday, May 18 for our first-ever energy summit to explore how the U.S. is positioning itself in a complicated energy future. We’ll explore progress on infrastructure and climate funding dedicated to building a renewable energy economy, Biden’s environmental justice proposals, and so much more. REGISTER HERE.

 
 

MORE POLITICS

FOLLOWING THE MONEY — After the LEONARD LEO-founded nonprofit Marble Freedom Trust got a staggering $1.6 billion gift from BARRE SEID, it has moved quickly to share the wealth, sloshing money around a variety of conservative causes. NYT’s Rebecca Davis O’Brien reports that Marble has given away $183 million in just a year. It’s not clear where the money ultimately ended up, but $153.8 went to the Schwab Charitable Fund and $28.9 million went to the Concord Fund (née the Judicial Crisis Network). Leo says it’s an important effort to counter what has recently been larger Democratic dark-money spending; critics call it a slush fund.

BATTLE FOR THE SENATE — Axios’ Juliegrace Brufke has new details on Arizona Republican KARI LAKE’s Washington swing this week as she weighs a Senate run: Lake met with NRSC Chair STEVE DAINES (R-Mont.) for two hours. She also talked with Sens. JONI ERNST (R-Iowa), LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.), BILL HAGERTY (R-Tenn.), TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.) and J.D. VANCE (R-Ohio).

POLICY CORNER

POWER PLAY — Utilities are warning that the EPA’s new greenhouse gas rule could lead to power outages if coal and gas plants have to shut down quickly without replacements, Catherine Morehouse reports. But former regulators say utilities are overstating the concern — and that climate change poses the greatest threat to the grid.

AFTER THE PANDEMIC — “Federal government’s $1 billion effort to recruit next generation of doctors at risk,” by AP’s Amanda Seitz in Salisbury, Md.: “Over the last three years, millions of taxpayer dollars were pumped into the National Health Service Corps to hire thousands more doctors and nurses willing to serve the country’s most desperate regions during the COVID-19 pandemic in exchange for forgiving medical school debts. Now, with the health emergency over, the program’s expansion is in jeopardy.”

DIPPING INTO CHIPS — “Commerce Department starts process to fund tech hubs across the U.S. with $500 million in grants,” by AP’s Josh Boak

 

GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGISTER HERE.

 
 

WAR IN UKRAINE

PREPARING FOR THE WORST — The U.S. is helping to install sensors in Ukraine “that can detect‌‌ bursts of radiation from a nuclear weapon or a dirty bomb and can confirm the identity of the attacker,” NYT’s William Broad reports.

WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE — Despite U.S. entreaties, Egypt is refusing to close its airspace to Russian military planes, giving Moscow easier access to get weapons from Syria to Ukraine, WSJ’s Summer Said and Jared Malsin scoop. The flights over Egyptian airspace have stepped up in recent weeks.

SANCTIONS STRUGGLE — “The U.S. is having trouble cutting Russia off from computer chips,” by Semafor’s Jay Solomon: There are “six sanctions evasion schemes Washington believes the Kremlin is using to acquire semiconductors and other electronics central to Russia’s production of the guidance systems for its missiles, drones, tanks, and other military hardware.”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

WHAT CORY BOOKER IS WATCHING — “Could the Government Help End Intergenerational Poverty With $3,500 for Each Child?” by WSJ’s Brenda León: “So-called baby bonds have been discussed in at least eight states and lawmakers have approved programs in Washington, D.C., Connecticut and California. … Officials nationwide are paying close attention.”

VALLEY TALK 

IT’S OFFICIAL — ELON MUSK has picked LINDA YACCARINO from NBC Universal to lead Twitter as its new chief executive, with NBC having announced her departure today, WaPo’s Faiz Siddiqui and Sarah Ellison report.

PLAYBOOKERS

SPOTTED: Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) and Terry McAuliffe dining at Xiquet last night.

OUT AND ABOUT — DC Safari Club International held its annual conservation dinner and auction last night on the rooftop of 101 Constitution Ave. after a four-year hiatus, featuring Rep. Aaron Bean (R-Fla.) as the auctioneer (which he’s done part time professionally). Items included hunting trips to Spain, Argentina, Ireland and South Africa and raised almost $100,000. SPOTTED: Reps. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.), Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.), David Rouser (R-N.C.), Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.), Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) and Ronny Jackson (R-Texas), Ben Cassidy, Ed Byers, Taylor Gross, Justin Peterson, Andrew Kovalcin, Hunter Moorhead, Kenny Hodge, Jason Ouimet, Dawson Hobbs, Kip Eideberg, Jared Michael, Michael Brairton, Graham Hill, Phil Hoon, Nick Swezey, Brian Calabrese, Bradley Hayes, Chase Kroll and Michael Formica.

— SPOTTED at a Thompson/Bush HHS reunion at the Capitol Hill Club yesterday: Tommy Thompson, Scott Gottlieb, Anthony Fauci, Andy von Eschenbach, Alex Azar, Mark Green, Andrew Bremberg, Josh Bolten, Reince Preibus, Reps. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.), Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.), and Scott Fitzgerald (R-Wis.), Kevin Keane, Bob Wood, Dave Boyer, Tom Scully, Michael Reilly, Demetrios Kouzoukas, Pam Stevens, Craig Stevens, Jennifer Young, Richard Parker, Leslie Norwalk and Ben Domenech.

Comcast NBCUniversal, MSNBC and the Asian Pacific American Institute for Congressional Studies hosted a special screening of MSNBC’s “The Culture Is: AAPI Women” yesterday evening at the Motion Picture Association hosted by Katie Phang in celebration of Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander Heritage Month. SPOTTED: Reps. Grace Meng (D-N.Y.) and Judy Chu (D-Calif.), Rashida Jones, Huma Abedin, Madalene Mielke, Amanda Nguyen, Richard Lui, Jonathan Capehart and Nick Schmit, Phil Tahtakran, Emma Carrasco, Lorie Acio, Diana Hwang, Joon Kim, Linda Shim, Dan Koh, Tejasi Thatte, Namrata Mujumdar, Catalina Tam, Kris Schneider, Opal Vadhan, Annie Yu, Naomi Zeigler and Nadia Belkin.

Actress and anti-sexual violence advocate Ashley Judd attended a Polaris event celebrating the launch of a new Resilience Fund at the Madison Hotel on Wednesday evening. SPOTTED: Muftiah McCartin, Bill Wichterman, Roy Austin, Frederick Reynolds, Ravi Satkalmi, Jay Brown and Skiffington Holderness.

WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Sophia Brill is now associate counsel at the White House. She most recently was senior counsel in the national security division at the Department of Justice.

TRANSITION — Caitlin Meloski is now senior adviser for the deputy Treasury secretary. She most recently was adviser to the director of the National Economic Council.

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The debate happening inside every VC firm

TechCrunch+ Newsletter
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By Walter Thompson

Friday, May 12, 2023

Welcome to TechCrunch+ Friday

Welcome to TechCrunch+ Friday image

Image Credits: Steven Puetzer / Getty Images

For an article we’re running on her last day at TechCrunch, Natasha Mascarenhas reached out to four investors to find out whether FOMO is encouraging them to climb aboard the AI bandwagon.

"Some are hiring talent to jump headfirst, others are happy to back the 'ChatGPT for X' spin-outs, and many are sitting in awe, watching their existing investments spark an AI debate of their own, no due diligence needed," she wrote.

Here’s who she spoke to:

  • Charles Hudson, managing partner/founder, Precursor Ventures
  • Jason Lemkin, managing director, SaaStr Fund
  • Cathy Guo, partner, Sapphire Ventures
  • Navin Chaddha, managing director, Mayfield Fund

Congratulations, Natasha; I wish you all the best with your future endeavors!

Thanks for reading,

Walter Thompson
Editorial Manager, TechCrunch+
@yourprotagonist

Read More

Making foundation models accessible: The battle between closed-source and open-source AI

Making foundation models accessible: The battle between closed-source and open-source AI image

Image Credits: JESPER KLAUSEN / SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY / Getty Images

The volume of data required to train AI models comes with a cost: You’ll need deep pockets to acquire powerful GPUs and the scientists and engineers who’ll manage the work, not to mention the matter of power consumption and related carbon emissions.

Given the tremendous barrier to entry, is it worth considering whether open-source foundational models could level the playing field and also address concerns about privacy and bias?

“We've now entered a critical phase of AI where who gets to build and serve these powerful models has become an important discussion point, particularly as ethical issues begin to swirl,” writes Jae Lee, CEO and co-founder of Twelve Labs.

Read More

TechCrunch Disrupt 2023

Sponsored by TechCrunch

Come to San Francisco from September 19 - 21 to learn something new and network with other founders and investors.

Early Bird sale ends today!

Unlocking the M&A code: 5 factors that can make (or break) a deal

Unlocking the M&A code: 5 factors that can make (or break) a deal image

Image Credits: mjrodafotografia / Getty Images

A merger or acquisition is the start of a new relationship, which is why most people approach exits with optimism.

"But all's not rosy in the world of M&A," writes SmartBear CEO Frank Roe, who has completed eight acquisitions in less than five years.

"It is a complex and substantially risky decision, not for the faint-hearted. It is essential to approach the decision and process with diligence and forethought."

In this TC+ guest post, he shares "five indispensable elements to consider for a successful mergers and acquisitions journey," reminding readers that "there's no 'secret formula.’"

Read More

Pitch Deck Teardown: Fibery's $5.2M Series A deck

Pitch Deck Teardown: Fibery's $5.2M Series A deck image

Image Credits: Fibery

Based in Cyprus, workflow and knowledge management platform Fibery raised a $5.2M Series A in September 2022.

Haje Jan Kamps analyzed the winning presentation and shared his suggestions for improving the company's 15-slide deck:

  • Cover slide
  • Problem slide
  • Solution slide
  • Market-size slide
  • Competitor slide
  • Competitive analysis slide
  • Product slide
  • "Building blocks" slide
  • Feedback/customer validation slide
  • Go-to market strategy slide
  • Business model slide
  • Traction slide
  • Milestones to date slide
  • Team slide
  • The ask slide

Read More

Ask Sophie: Can I apply for an EB-1A without first getting an O-1A?

Ask Sophie: Can I apply for an EB-1A without first getting an O-1A? image

Image Credits: Bryce Durbin/TechCrunch

Dear Sophie,

What do you think about applying for an EB-1A straight away without first using the O-1A as a stepping stone?

Thanks!

— Extraordinary Engineer in Escondido

Read More

3 key metrics for cybersecurity product managers

3 key metrics for cybersecurity product managers image

Image Credits: Tetra Images / Getty Images

Cybersecurity product managers usually measure conversion rates, detection accuracy and usage/engagement to gain customer insights, but these metrics “may not be what they seem,” writes Ross Haleliuk, an investor who's also head of product at LimaCharlie.io.

“Context matters a lot, and the realities of different organizations, geographies, cultures and market segments heavily influence what can be measured and what actions can be taken based on these observations.”

Read More

Read more stories on TechCrunch.com

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California Today: Why P-22 is still everywhere in Los Angeles

After his death, the mountain lion from Griffith Park was inescapable and celebrated in a museum exhibit as a "hero."

It's Friday. How the mountain lion P-22 became an avatar of survival in Los Angeles. Plus, a look at who's getting into the United States under new immigration rules.

A mural of P-22 in Los Angeles.Jenna Schoenefeld for The New York Times

Before P-22 died in December, I'll admit I was only vaguely aware that there was a mountain lion living in Griffith Park.

I had heard the name and was familiar with some of the many perils that pumas in the Los Angeles area were facing — shrinking territory and an attendant lack of genetic diversity, speeding freeway traffic and exposure to rat poison — but I didn't know much about what made P-22 singular.

Then, late last year, P-22, who had made an unlikely home in Los Angeles's biggest municipal park for more than a decade, started behaving more aggressively. Wildlife officials took it as a sign that after a long, difficult life, his health had deteriorated and that he should be euthanized. After his death, he became inescapable.

There was his feline face on a giant yellow mural at a fitness studio where I sometimes take classes. There was a memorial at the Greek Theater, attended by thousands of locals, including celebrities. The Los Angeles Public Library hosted a reading of "love letters" to honor him, and issued a limited edition library card. Representative Adam Schiff emailed constituents to say that he was hard at work pushing for a P-22 postage stamp.

Last week, the Los Angeles City Council approved a motion to build a permanent memorial to him at Griffith Park, which would put the puma in league with James Dean, whose bust is on display near Griffith Observatory.

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All this had me wondering: What was it about this wild animal, living in a city full of human celebrities, that inspired such fervent adoration?

What I found while reporting my recent article about P-22's legacy is that his star potential was recognized years ago and magnified by wildlife conservationists like Beth Pratt, the National Wildlife Federation's executive director for California, who became the cat's unofficial agent.

She helped make him the face of a successful campaign to raise money to build the world's largest wildlife crossing, which is under construction over Highway 101 in Agoura Hills.

But his story of isolation — he was a bachelor who never mated — and survival in a city that has a tendency to grind down individuals also resonated with Angelenos.

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To Warren Dickson, a hip-hop artist who tries to get students from South Los Angeles engaged in environmentalism, P-22 is at once a kindred spirit and a vexing point of comparison.

He recalled meeting Pratt by chance after he was hired to drive her to a wildlife conservation fund-raiser. She invited him into the event, and he was struck by the level of concern even for predators.

"Black people just want you to love them like you love mountain lions," he recalled telling the mostly white guests.

Rather than turn away, Pratt was appreciative of Dickson's honesty, he said, and the two struck up a productive friendship. She eventually helped him record and make a music video for his song "If I Was Wild."

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Dickson believes that fostering a connection with P-22's story can help build empathy for marginalized human communities like his own. He hopes to make a full-time career out of wildlife conservation.

Some of P-22's appeal was more instinctive. At the Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County, where there is an exhibit dedicated to his "hero's journey," I found Michelle Davis pointing at a big map, showing the cougar's territory while her 5-year-old son, Benjamin, poked at buttons to represent other known pumas.

Benjamin, she explained, had been assigned a "passion project" through his school. Last year, he tackled Metro trains. This year, he planned to learn about the big cat.

"Why did you pick P-22?" Davis gently prodded her son.

He squirmed shyly, his eyes downcast.

"I miss him," he said. Then he bounded away.

For more:

A U.S. Border Patrol agent talked with migrants at the border near San Diego.Mark Abramson for The New York Times

If you read one story, make it this

On Thursday, the United States lifted a pandemic rule that had been used to immediately kick out hundreds of thousands of migrants who crossed the border illegally over the last three years. Here's a guide to who gets in now.

Enjoy all of The New York Times in one subscription — the original reporting and analysis, plus puzzles from Games, recipes from Cooking, product reviews from Wirecutter and sports journalism from The Athletic. Experience it all with a New York Times All Access subscription.

The case before the Supreme Court involved a challenge to a California law that arose from a 2018 ballot measure approved by more than 60 percent of the state's voters.Jordan Gale/Reuters

The rest of the news

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • Market spiral: The lender PacWest Bank, based in Los Angeles, lost nearly 10 percent of its deposits over the last week, igniting customers' "fears of the safety of their deposits."
  • Planting evidence: Orange County sheriff's officials are being accused in court records of planting evidence by moving drugs found in one investigation into the file of a second, unrelated drug case, The Los Angeles Times reports.
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • Homeless site: San Francisco's plans to close an R.V. homeless shelter on the outskirts of the Bayview neighborhood are prompting an outcry from city supervisors who want to keep the site open, The San Francisco Chronicle reports.
  • Twitter C.E.O.: Elon Musk said on Thursday that he had selected a chief executive for Twitter and that he would remain involved as the company's executive chair.
Point Vicente Lighthouse at Rancho Palos Verdes.AaronP/Bauer-Griffin/GC Images

Where we're traveling

Today's tip comes from Claire Ramos, who recommends a drive in Rancho Palos Verdes:

"The cliffs at Point Vicente, near Redondo Beach and south of Los Angeles, make for an amazing drive. Catalina Island sparkles across the waves immediately to the west, and the cliffs retain a sort of mysterious silvery light. There's an old lighthouse and park to wander through, where you can watch rabbits and ground squirrels in the brush. A quiet, enchanting, magical place."

Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com. We'll be sharing more in upcoming editions of the newsletter.

Bethany Mollenkof for The New York Times

And before you go, some good news

The Marin Independent Journal recently asked readers to share six-word stories of things they treasure. Here's some of our favorites:

"From Mother, the gift of gab." — Patrick Ritter, San Rafael

"Loud vinyl music, hear me scream." — Lucy Ray Bakowski, Fairfax

"Golden retriever Elliott, my greatest gift." — Ann Troy, San Anselmo

"Being a parent, becoming a grandparent." — Anna Lazzarini, Novato

"My first bike, a love affair." — Alan Goldfarb, San Rafael

Thanks for reading. We'll be back on Monday. Enjoy your weekend.

Soumya Karlamangla, Briana Scalia and Isabella Grullón Paz contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.

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