| | | | |  | | By Garrett Ross | | | |  A new poll from NYT/Siena College has some alarming findings for Democrats — particularly among women. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images | This morning's NYT/Siena College poll has dominated discussion in Washington and online this morning, showing noteworthy gains by the GOP just three weeks out from Election Day. The topline is bad enough for Dems: Republicans have flipped the generic congressional ballot in their favor, and now lead Democrats, 49%-45%. (In September's NYT/Siena poll, Dems held a one-point advantage.)
- And if you really want to wonk out: "The two rounding errors add up to an even larger disparity between the reported and actual result when it comes to the difference between likely and registered voters. The rounded result makes it seem to be a four-point gap. In reality, the difference is a 2.5-point gap."
But the crosstabs really caused a stir, showing a substantial shift in the political preferences among independent women voters. "In September, they favored Democrats by 14 points. Now, independent women backed Republicans by 18 points — a striking swing given the polarization of the American electorate and how intensely Democrats have focused on that group and on the threat Republicans pose to abortion rights," writes NYT's Shane Goldmacher . See the crosstabs for yourself Yet there's reason to be skeptical about sweeping takeaways from those crosstabs:
- Similarly pumping the brakes is The Economist's G. Elliott Morris , who notes that though the poll shows Republicans winning 18% of Black voters, that sample size amounted to just 77 people.
Even so, voter preferences are shifting. And economic concerns are behind it.
- "Gas prices went up again. The stock market is down," writes Cohn. "A variety of data suggests that the electorate's attention is shifting back to issues where Republicans are on stronger ground in public opinion, like the economy, inflation, crime and immigration, and away from the summer's focus on democracy, gun violence and abortion, where Democrats have an edge."
- It's the most important issue to voters — by a large margin. The "share of likely voters who said economic concerns were the most important issues facing America has leaped since July, to 44 percent from 36 percent — far higher than any other issue," writes Goldmacher. For reference: The next-closest issues are the state of democracy (8%), and abortion and immigration (5% each).
TL;DR: "It's a modest but notable swing" for Republicans, Cohn writes. "[T]he conditions that helped Democrats gain over the summer no longer seem to be in place." NEWSFLASH — "DOJ recommends 6-month jail term for Steve Bannon," by Kyle Cheney WHISKEY TANGO FOXTROT — Our colleague Kyle Cheney has the latest from an… eventful Oath Keepers trial day: "Prosecutors just walked jurors through a series of sexually explicit text messages between STEWART RHODES and KELLYE SoRELLE, showing their relationship went a bit, uh, beyond attorney-client." More: "Jan. 2/3 Rhodes: 'Speaking of f***ing…if you need some come on over.' SoRelle said she couldn't. Rhodes said he'd 'drag you into bed later.' SoRelle 'That's how I know you're trouble. You're too good at what you do. Whole bad boy thing. I am a damn moth to a (flame emoji)'" NO ONE MAN SHOULD HAVE ALL THAT POWER — "Kanye West to buy rightwing social network Parler," by the Guardian's Alex Hern: "The purchase by the rapper, who legally changed his name to YE last year, is expected to close in the fourth quarter of this year. 'In a world where conservative opinions are considered to be controversial we have to make sure we have the right to freely express ourselves,' he said in a statement." The key context here is that Parler CEO GEORGE FARMER is married to right-wing provocateur CANDACE OWENS , who is friends with Ye — and Parler is running far behind Trump's Truth Social platform in terms of popularity. UNEXPECTED NEWSMAX GUEST — First lady JILL BIDEN sat down with Newsmax for an interview airing at 9 p.m. Topics range from Biden's work to raise awareness for breast cancer, the death of BEAU BIDEN and the war in Ukraine. Good Monday afternoon.
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| BIG PICTURE THE STAKES — "A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center of Public Affairs Research finds 71% of registered voters think the very future of the U.S. is at stake when they vote this year." More from the AP THE NEW GOP — "How the 'Never Trump' movement became 'Never Trumpism,'" by WaPo's Isaac Arnsdorf: "The efforts are a combination of outreach from Democratic campaigns, Republican groups acting on their own initiative and spontaneous decisions by individual voters. There's no central coordination. Republicans say they're motivated both by local dynamics in specific races and the national environment — a reflection of how Trump's transformation of the party has exploded into a new generation of Trump-style figures." ON THE AIRWAVES — NYT's Cecilia Kang and Tiffany Hsu have a look at Salem Media Group, a Texas-based company that is carving out a space on the radio for conservative voices like ERIC METAXAS, SEBASTIAN GORKA and CHARLIE KIRK . "Salem, which has a market capitalization of nearly $45 million, is smaller than audio competitors like Cumulus Media and iHeartMedia, as well as conservative media organizations such as Fox News. But it stands out for its blend of right-leaning politics and Christian content and its vast network of 100 radio stations and more than 3,000 affiliates, many of them reaching deep into parts of America that don't engage with most mainstream media outlets." ON THE GROUND — "Groups mobilize to help voters confronting new election laws," by AP's Sudhin Thanawala and Gary Fields BATTLE FOR THE SENATE GEORGIA ON MY MIND — "'That's my check': Walker acknowledges giving $700 to his ex, but denies her claim he knew it was for an abortion," by NBC's Kristen Welker and Henry Gomez: "[HERSCHEL] WALKER indicated in the interview with NBC News that he had written the woman many checks over the years, calling her by her first name and wondering if the woman had a job at the time. The woman told NBC News that this was the only payment Walker ever sent her prior to having their child." — "Pests, Filth, and Killer Elevators: Inside Raphael Warnock's Secret Low-Income Apartment Building," by the Washington Free Beacon's Andrew Kerr and Alana Goodman: Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK (D-Ga.) "serves as senior pastor of the Ebenezer Baptist Church, which, through a charity it controls called the Ebenezer Building Foundation, owns 99 percent of Columbia Tower, according to records obtained by the Free Beacon. It's not clear what Warnock's role was in overseeing Columbia Tower.'" MYSTERY SOLVED — The Salt Lake Tribune has clarified why an op-ed for Sen. MIKE LEE (R-Utah) appeared to be written in third person while another for his independent challenger EVAN McMULLIN was written in first person by the candidate. It was a simple mistake: the op-ed for Lee was written and submitted by the congressman's campaign staff, and the online edition failed to note that. It's now been updated with a byline that reads , "Campaign for Mike Lee." The explanation BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE FACT CHECK — "How Democratic ads mislead on four GOP candidates' abortion stances," by CNN's Daniel Dale: "Some ads try to make it sound like Republicans who support exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother are opposed to these exceptions. Other ads try to make it sound like Republicans who have opposed the idea of a federal abortion ban are supportive of a federal ban." CASH DASH — "New super PAC forms as Jim Banks eyes House GOP leadership role," by Axios' Jonathan Swan: "A new, well-funded super PAC is supporting the political priorities and policy agenda of Rep. JIM BANKS of Indiana, an ambitious GOP House member expected to compete for the House majority whip role if his party wins power. … The group, 'American Leadership PAC,' was formed last month. Within weeks, it has raised $2 million to spend before the Nov. 8 elections, according to a source with direct knowledge of the fundraising." NOT JUST THE MILITARY RECORD — "Embattled GOP Candidate J.R. Majewski Also Exaggerated Academic Credential," by HuffPost's Liz Skalka: "It was all on his campaign website, which had stated that [J.R.] MAJEWSKI earned a bachelor's degree in business, summa cum laude, and a master's degree in project management, magna cum laude, from 'Colorado Tech.' … Majewski has since scrubbed any reference to graduating with honors." HMM — "Rep. Dan Crenshaw Campaign Paid Firm That Employs His Wife," by The Daily Caller's Henry Rodgers: "Since 2020, Crenshaw's campaign has paid Pink Cilantro more than $350,000. A Crenshaw spokesperson confirmed to the Caller that TARA CRENSHAW is still an employee of Pink Cilantro but said her work is separate from the work the agency does for Crenshaw's campaign." HOT ADS Via Steve Shepard — Ohio: Democratic Senate candidate TIM RYAN's latest ad calls Republican J.D. VANCE "a fraud playing dress-up," while the words "UNCOMFORTABLE IN FLANNEL" flash across the screen. — Colorado: A new Spanish-language ad from GOP Senate nominee JOE O'DEA calls Democratic Sen. MICHAEL BENNET "un senador indolente," and ties Bennet to Biden, who won the state with 55% of the vote two years ago.
| | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don't miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | CONGRESS AFTERNOON READ — Robert Draper is up with a big read for NYT Magazine on Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.), adapted from his new book, "Weapons of Mass Delusion: When the Republican Party Lost Its Mind," ( $26.10 ) which comes out on Tuesday. "Over the past two years, Greene has gone from the far-right fringe of the G.O.P. ever closer to its establishment center without changing any of her own beliefs; if anything, she has continued to find more extreme ways to express them," he writes. Don't miss Greene's prediction (or warning?) for GOP leader KEVIN McCARTHY: "I think that to be the best speaker of the House and to please the base, he's going to give me a lot of power and a lot of leeway. … And if he doesn't, they're going to be very unhappy about it. I think that's the best way to read that. And that's not in any way a threat at all. I just think that's reality." FOR YOUR RADAR — "Congress investigates how Mississippi spent federal funds amid Jackson water crisis," by NBC's Bracey Harris THE WHITE HOUSE HOME AWAY FROM HOME — "Biden has spent more than a fourth of his presidency working from Delaware, outpacing Trump's regular trips away," by CNN's Kate Bennett: "Some 21 months into his term, Biden has made 55 visits to Delaware, totaling some or all of 174 days as of Sunday, according to a CNN analysis of presidential schedules and a tally kept by Mark Knoller, the longtime unofficial statistician of the White House press corps. In addition, Biden has made 19 visits, or all or part of 64 days, to the Camp David presidential retreat in rural Maryland."
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | WAR IN UKRAINE THE LATEST IN KYIV — "Waves of suicide drones strike Ukraine's capital, 4 killed," by AP's Sabra Ayres, Hanna Arhirova and Inna Varenytsia THE U.S. RESPONSE — "U.S. to factor in Russia's use of 'kamikaze' drones in Ukraine in future decisions, official says," by CNN's MJ Lee — "U.S. to penalize Iran, third parties for missile sales to Russia," by Nahal Toosi AMERICA AND THE WORLD DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — "American technology boosts China's hypersonic missile program," by WaPo's Cate Cadell and Ellen Nakashima: "Military research groups at the leading edge of China's hypersonics and missile programs — many on a U.S. export blacklist — are purchasing a range of specialized American technology, including products developed by firms that have received millions of dollars in grants and contracts from the Pentagon, a Washington Post investigation has found." — "'Moving Backward': In Xi's China, Some See an Era of Total Control," by NYT's Li Yuan: "A decade ago, many prominent Chinese hoped that XI JINPING would usher in openness and reform. Today, some of them believe he's created a totalitarian state." — "China Delays Indefinitely the Release of G.D.P. and Other Economic Statistics," by NYT's Keith Bradsher in Beijing — "U.S. Pushes to Keep B-52 Bombers Going as Pressure From China Grows," by WSJ's Doug Cameron
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY . | | | | | POLICY CORNER FIRST IN POLITICO — The Defense Innovation Board, with new chair MICHAEL BLOOMBERG, holds its first meeting today. The gathering will be hosted by Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN, who rebooted the board in February, and HEIDI SHYU, undersecretary for research and engineering. Other members of the panel: Former Rep. MAC THORNBERRY (R-Texas), Retired Adm. and former Joint Chiefs Chair MIKE MULLEN, WILL ROPER, SUE GORDON, GILDA BARABINO, REID HOFFMAN and RYAN SWANN. More from Lee Hudson, Connor O'Brien and Paul McLeary PLAYBOOKERS TRANSITION — Anthony Reyes is now VP of communications at WME. He most recently was president of strategic comms firm Tonycom and is an Obama Treasury and MSNBC alum. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Abbi Sothmann, Prime Policy Group COO, and Steve Sothmann, president, Leather & Hide Council of America and executive director, Meat Import Council of America Inc., welcomed Frederick Dean Sothmann on October 6, weighing in at 21 inches and 8.27 pounds. Pic … Another pic — Jane Lucas, counsel at Alston & Bird, and Chris Lucas, chief of staff for CFTC Commissioner Summer Mersinger, welcomed Katherine Jane Lucas on October 9. She joins big sisters Grace and Claire. Pic
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