| | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | | COMMONWEALTH BULLETIN — Rep. ABIGAIL SPANBERGER (D-Va.) is telling other Democrats that she plans to run for governor of Virginia in 2025, Ally Mutnick and Sarah Ferris scooped. That decision could have major implications for Richmond, where Spanberger will seek to retake the governor’s mansion for Democrats, and for Washington, where she’d open up a critical battleground seat if she opts not to run for reelection next year. (She could do both, but she told allies last spring that she didn’t plan to.)
|  President Joe Biden arrives in Maine with the advantage of a suite of positive new economic data today. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images | POTUS ON THE ROAD — President JOE BIDEN is set to speak momentarily at a manufacturing facility in Auburn, Maine, where he’ll sign an executive order that’s the newest plank in the economic agenda he hopes to make a centerpiece of his reelection effort. The order aims to bolster the domestic manufacturing of new American inventions while shoring up “the transparency of federal research and development programs to meet the administration’s goals for domestic manufacturing,” per the AP. Beyond the specifics of the order, which comes on what the Portland Press Herald notes is his first trip to Maine as president, Biden will deliver a speech that seeks to improve his blue-collar bona fides and help Americans see the connection between his policies and economic changes. It’s a campaign case buttressed by surprising economic resilience, including the revelation that a significant part of the ongoing, steady GDP growth is spending from or inspired by Biden’s big investments in infrastructure and clean energy, WaPo’s Abha Bhattarai reports. Those monies are now starting to filter down tangibly to the economy, particularly in the form of related private-sector spending that at least one economist says is having an impact sooner than expected. But the question is whether Biden can successfully make the pitch to voters. Poll after poll thus far shows that the electorate isn’t buying what he’s selling (at least metaphorically). But The Messenger’s Dan Merica and Amie Parnes report that many top Democrats aren’t wetting the bed just yet over the disconnect. “The reason? Confidence that the polling is just lagging behind the economic indicators and belief that voters are just as skeptical of former President DONALD TRUMP’s populist pitch.” And Biden arrives in Maine with the advantage of a suite of positive new economic data today. Good news comes in threes: 1. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation continued slowing down last month, according to new data released today and summarized by CNBC’s Jeff Cox. The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 3% in June year over year, getting closer to the Fed’s target of 2% annual inflation and way down from last year’s 9.1% peak. That was down from 3.8% in May and the lowest number since September 2021. Core PCE, excluding fuels and foods, was up 4.1%, down from 4.6% in May. 2. Wage growth in the second quarter ticked down from 1.2% to 1%, an easing of another key contributor to inflation, per NYT’s Ben Casselman. Year over year, compensation rose 4.5%. “Smaller pay increases might sound like bad news. But they will be welcomed by policymakers at the Fed,” especially as inflation has fallen faster than wages — meaning Americans are growing wealthier in real terms. 3. The Atlanta Fed’s latest Q3 GDP forecast is 3.5% growth. Happy Friday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.
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Explore more possibilities with the metaverse. | | | 2024 WATCH THE RADICAL CHANGE COMING IN A GOP ADMIN — “Conservatives have already written a climate plan for Trump’s second term,” by Scott Waldman: “The 920-page blueprint … would go far beyond past GOP efforts to slash environmental agencies’ budgets or oust ‘deep state’ employees. Called Project 2025, it would block the expansion of the electrical grid for wind and solar energy; slash funding for the Environmental Protection Agency’s environmental justice office; shutter the Energy Department’s renewable energy offices; prevent states from adopting California’s car pollution standards; and delegate more regulation of polluting industries to Republican state officials. “If enacted, it could decimate the federal government’s climate work [and] stymie the transition to clean energy.” THE RESET THAT ISN’T — For all the talk of how Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ campaign is changing in the past couple of weeks, he still isn’t really taking the plunge that some operatives think he needs to: criticizing Trump head on, Sally Goldenberg, Gary Fineout and Kimberly Leonard report. Seventeen sources in or near his campaign tell them there’s “little appetite to dramatically change that strategy,” as DeSantis plans to continue focusing on touting his own achievements and blasting Democrats, not going negative against the frontrunner. Many supporters think he’ll turn it around with debate performances. But others — including some big donors — worry that he’s missing a chance to present himself clearly as the Trump alternative. TEXAS FOREVER — DeSantis’ affiliated super PAC Never Back Down has an interesting new focus beyond the early-voting states: Texas, which doesn’t vote until Super Tuesday, The Daily Beast’s Jake Lahut and Roger Sollenberger report. NBD is offering only Iowa and Texas as the two options for field organizers joining the group. The Beast calls it “about as high-risk a strategy as there is” relative to investing in New Hampshire or South Carolina, given Texas’ later place in the schedule and its size. Some GOP operatives call it an arrogant misstep. SUBTLE SHIFT — From Ankeny, Iowa, Semafor’s Dave Weigel clocks that DeSantis is saying the word “woke” a lot less on the stump, even as he continues making anti-woke policies a centerpiece of his campaign. NO SURPRISE — Trump said today that even if he were convicted and sentenced to prison, he wouldn’t drop his presidential bid. THE CASH QUESTION — “The Mystery of How Tim Scott’s Campaign Is Spending Its Millions,” by NYT’s Rebecca Davis O’Brien and Alexandra Berzon: “According to F.E.C. filings last week, the [TIM] SCOTT campaign made $4.3 million in payments from April 1 to June 30 to a company called Meeting Street Services L.L.C. The money included $2.8 million for ‘placed media’ and more for digital fund-raising, strategy and video production. Meeting Street Services has no online presence, and has not been paid by any other campaign, records show. Its listed address, in North Charleston, S.C., is a Staples store.” VP FILES — “Harris confronts some skepticism after Biden dispatches her to donor land,” by Hailey Fuchs, Holly Otterbein and Eugene Daniels HAPPENING TONIGHT — The Iowa GOP’s annual Lincoln Dinner will draw almost the whole presidential field to Des Moines, including the first time that Trump and DeSantis will square off directly in the state, the Des Moines Register’s Brianne Pfannenstiel, Galen Bacharier, Katie Akin and Stephen Gruber-Miller preview.
| | | | ATTENTION PLAYBOOKERS! You need to keep up with the latest political news and nuggets, so here’s a juicy tip: You need to add California Playbook to your daily reading. We have a new team at the helm who are eager to take you inside the political arena in California, from Sacramento and Los Angeles to Silicon Valley and throughout the Golden State! Get the latest exclusive news and buzzy scoops from the fourth largest economy in the world sent straight to your inbox. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | MORE POLITICS AD WARS — The DSCC is launching new spots aimed at swaying seniors by criticizing Sens. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) and RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) on entitlements, Axios’ Andrew Solender reports. The ads, a version of which will also air in seven races with Democratic incumbents, warn that Republicans are “a threat to your Medicare.” BATTLE FOR THE BALLOT — “Fate of Voting Rights Restoration in Kentucky Is in the Hands of the Next Governor,” by Bolts’ Alex Burness: “At issue is an executive order Democratic Governor ANDY BESHEAR issued in 2019, on his third day in office, that has restored the voting rights of at least about 180,000 people, or five percent of Kentucky’s adult population. … The fate of that order rests on the next governor’s goodwill, and each of the state’s last three governors have used their executive power to flip their predecessor’s policy on this issue.” FOLLOWING THE MONEY — New Jersey conservative radio host BILL SPADEA, who’s expected to run for governor in 2025, pulled in $320,000 this year via two groups closely linked to him, Matt Friedman reports. That positions the Trumpist Spadea well ahead of moderate Republican JACK CIATTARELLI, a likely gubernatorial rival, in the money game. But, but, but: Less than 1% of the money has been spent on GOP groups or candidates — instead it’s almost all going to “fundraising expenses as well as political consultants.”
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | POLICY CORNER WHAT JOE MANCHIN IS WATCHING — After the debt ceiling deal included changes to the National Environmental Policy Act, the Biden administration today released proposed rulemaking to implement those reforms — and Republicans may not like what they see, Josh Siegel reports. That’s because the changes to requirements for federal permitting include “climate, racial and economic fairness factors.” ANNALS OF APOCALYPSE — “The Dangerous and Frightening Disappearance of the Nuclear Deterrence Expert,” by Bryan Bender in Santa Monica, Calif., for POLITICO Magazine: “Tensions among nuclear powers are rising, but decades of peace have resulted in a dearth of people trained to deal with the continuing threat.” BEYOND THE BELTWAY AFTERNOON READ — “After Mississippi banned his hormone shots, an 8-hour journey,” by WaPo’s Casey Parks: “A swath of adjoining states in the South now ban transition-related care for minors, forcing families of trans youth to travel long distances for care.”
| | | | HITTING YOUR INBOX AUGUST 14—CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes. | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a party last night at the National Press Club for Harold Hamm’s “Game Changer: Our Fifty-Year Mission to Secure America’s Energy Independence” ($25.20): Sens. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), John Hoeven (R-N.D.), John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Steve Daines (R-Mont.), Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) and Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), Reps. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), Dan Bishop (R-N.C.) and Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), Newt and Callista Gingrich, Elaine Chao, Blu Hulsey and Lincoln Ferguson. — Reps. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.) and Chellie Pingree (D-Maine) handed out blueberries before a House Agriculture Committee hearing yesterday to commemorate National Blueberry Month. Chair Glenn “G.T.” Thompson (R-Pa.) checked out the produce and celebrated his birthday. SPOTTED: Reps. Mike Bost (R-Ill.), Austin Scott (R-Ga.), Scott DesJarlais (R-Tenn.), Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.), Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.), Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.), Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.), Salud Carbajal (D-Calif.), Tracey Mann (R-Kan.), Barry Moore (R-Ala.), John Duarte (R-Calif.), Sanford Bishop (D-Ga.), Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), Jonathan Jackson (D-Ill.), Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) and Greg Casar (D-Texas). MEDIA MOVE — Ed Yong is leaving The Atlantic, where he’s been a Pulitzer-winning staff writer, to work on a book and other projects. TRANSITIONS — Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) has elevated Jon Adame to chief of staff. He’ll be replaced as legislative director by Jamie Susskind, previously policy adviser. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
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