Inflation ticks up again as Biden touts IRA

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Sep 13, 2022 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Eugene Daniels and Garrett Ross

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President Joe Biden speaks before signing the

President Joe Biden speaks at the White House on Tuesday, Aug. 9. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo

As President JOE BIDEN gears up to celebrate the passage of his signature Inflation Reduction Act this afternoon, it comes against the backdrop of the latest inflationary reading from the Labor Department, which dropped this morning.

  • The topline finding: "Inflation rose more than expected in August as rising shelter and food costs offset a drop in gas prices," CNBC's Jeff Cox writes.
  • The overall figures: "The consumer price index, which tracks a broad swath of goods and services, increased 0.1% for the month and 8.3% over the past year. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, CPI rose 0.6% from July and 6.3% from the same month in 2021."
  • The detailed numbers: "Energy prices fell 5% for the month, led by a 10.6% slide in the gasoline index. However, those declines were offset by increases elsewhere. The food index increased 0.8% in August and shelter costs, which make up about one-third of the weighting in the CPI, jumped 0.7% and are up 6.2% from a year ago."
  • The expectations: "Economists had been expecting headline inflation to fall 0.1% and core to increase 0.3%, according to Dow Jones estimates. The respective year-over-year forecasts were for 8% and 6% gains."

Further reading: WSJ: "Inflation Infighting: Honey, Do We Really Need Those Pine Nuts?" … Bloomberg : "U.S. Inflation Tops Forecasts, Cementing Odds of Big Fed Hike" … POLITICO: "Get ready for a food fight: High grocery costs are here to stay"

MEANWHILE, AT THE WHITE HOUSE — Playbook got a sneak peek at the preparations underway for this afternoon's IRA celebration ceremony. Here's what to expect:

  • Biden will tout the IRA as "a win for the middle class," according to a White House official. He'll also knock Republicans for not supporting a $35-a-month cap on the price of insulin — a provision which made it into the final legislation for Medicare Part D beneficiaries. 
  • Climate activist and singer-songwriter JAMES TAYLOR will perform a few songs.
  • Biden will be introduced by LOVETTE JACOBS, an electrical apprentice from Boston, who met the president (virtually) on the campaign trail after losing her job during the Covid-19 downturn. In prepared remarks, Jacobs will praise Biden for making good on a promise he made to her on that call: essentially, to bring back jobs like hers. 

The gist of the message, per a White House statement this morning: "It will take more time and resolve to bring inflation down, which is why we passed the Inflation Reduction Act to lower the cost of healthcare, prescription drugs and energy. And my economic plan is showing that, as we bring prices down, we are creating good paying jobs and bringing manufacturing back to America."

 

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PRE-PRIMARY READING — We've made it: Today marks the last slate of primaries ahead of the general elections in November. Voters in New Hampshire and Rhode Island will close out the primary calendar tonight — with the marquee race coming out of New Hampshire, in the GOP primary to take on Democratic Sen. MAGGIE HASSAN in November.

"5 Races To Watch In New Hampshire And Rhode Island," by FiveThirtyEight's Geoffrey Skelley

HOT DOC — Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) released the text of his much-anticipated national abortion ban legislation. The bill would ban abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy (down from 20 weeks in previous versions of the bill), and provides exemptions for rape, incest and cases "necessary to save the life of a pregnant woman." The bill also notably "leaves in place state laws that are more protective of unborn life." Read the bill here More from our colleagues

At a news conference just after noon , Graham said Democrats' efforts to pass national abortion protections motivated him to introduce today's bill, which he said is "fairly consistent with the rest of the world." Graham said if Republicans retake the House in the midterms, "I can assure you we'll have a vote" on the bill.

— Worth noting: After the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, Graham said the Dobbs ruling was a "long overdue constitutional correction allowing for elected officials in the states to decide issues of life." Today, Graham struck a somewhat different position on the role of the states: "Abortion is not banned in America. It's left up to elected officials to define the issue. … And we have the ability in Washington to speak on this issue if we choose. I have chosen to speak."

— The White House response: "Today, Senator Graham introduced a national ban on abortion which would strip away women's rights in all 50 states. This bill is wildly out of step with what Americans believe," press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE said in a statement.

FWIW: A WSJ poll taken last month found that "57% opposed a ban at 15 weeks with an exception only for the health of the mother."

Related read: "Republicans tried to sidestep the issue of abortion. Now they're seeking a reset," by NBC's Jonathan Allen, Marc Caputo and Allan Smith

Good Tuesday afternoon.

 

A WOMEN RULE CONVERSATION ON LEADING FROM THE GROUND UP: Join POLITICO's Women Rule on Sept. 15 for conversations focused on creating and leading sustainable, healthy and inclusive communities. The program will feature a Member Exchange panel followed by a keynote discussion exploring the most pressing issues facing women in their communities and women in leadership roles who are best positioned to solve these problems. REGISTER HERE.

 
 

CONGRESS

TAKING STOCK — NYT's Kate Kelly, Adam Playford and Alicia Parlapiano have a deep-dive look at stock trading among members of Congress: "From 2019 to 2021, 183 current senators or representatives reported a trade of a stock or another financial asset by themselves or an immediate family member. More than half of them sat on congressional committees that potentially gave them insight into the companies whose shares they reported buying or selling, an analysis by The New York Times has found."

"In some cases, the transactions appear to be routine or to have only a tangential connection to any influence the lawmaker might have had on an issue. In others, the trades were conducted by trusts or brokers who, the lawmakers say, were operating without any instructions or input from them. But many instances show how legislative work and investment decisions can overlap in ways that at a minimum can leave the appearance of a conflict and that sometimes form a troubling pattern — even if they technically fall within the rules."

THE AGE-OLD QUESTION — Insider is up with a big new project titled "Red, White, and Gray," which "explores the costs, benefits, and dangers of life in a democracy helmed by those of advanced age, where issues of profound importance to the nation's youth and future — technology, civil rights, energy, the environment — are largely in the hands of those whose primes have passed." The package posted today includes six stories, and the series is planning to publish new stories until early October.

  • The mainbar: "The oldest government in history," by Annie Fu, Walt Hickey, and Shayanne Gal: "America's gerontocracy is disconnecting Congress from the rest of the country, an Insider data analysis reveals."

WHISTLE WHILE YOU WORK — "Twitter whistleblower to Congress: Your data is at risk too," by Rebecca Kern and Eric Geller: "It's 'not far-fetched to say that employees inside the company could take over the accounts of all of the senators in this room, ' PEITER 'MUDGE' ZATKO testified to the Senate Judiciary Committee during the latest in a long round of hearings focused on Silicon Valley's alleged failings."

THE WHITE HOUSE

UNDER THE INFLUENCE — The Washington Examiner's Katherine Doyle digs into lobbying records and finds that VP KAMALA HARRIS' office isn't a particularly popular destination among the influence industry. "About half as many companies and outside groups have hired lobbyists to influence Harris's office during her first two years compared with her predecessor, MIKE PENCE . Among those lobbying Harris and her aides were representatives of drug companies, technology firms, and energy businesses, according to the records."

2024 WATCH — First lady JILL BIDEN sat down for an interview that aired this morning on NBC's "Today" show, where she was asked whether she and her husband have discussed a 2024 reelection run: "Not yet. We've been a little bit too busy. So, not yet. But, I'm sure it will be a discussion."

On whether they're ready for a second campaign: "It is taxing, but look at all Joe has done. … So I think he just needs to keep going." Watch the interview

 

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ALL POLITICS

AFTERNOON READ — As he runs his reelection campaign, Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS has tiptoed up to the line of revealing 2024 presidential ambitions — hugging Trump while also pitching himself as the next in line. "In an extensive examination of his life and record — across more than 100 interviews with aides, allies, antagonists and peers who detailed several previously unreported episodes spanning his decade in elected office — the most consistent appraisal was that DeSantis, who turns 44 this month, believes his raw instincts are unrivaled and that he may well be correct," NYT Magazine's Matt Flegenheimer writes.

HISTORY IN THE MAKING — A record number of Black candidates are running in Senate and gubernatorial races this fall, WaPo's Tim Craig writes. "Since Reconstruction, voters have elected just seven Black senators and two Black governors. This year, 16 Black candidates — 13 Democrats and three Republicans — are major party nominees, from Florida and across the Deep South to traditional Midwestern battlegrounds like Wisconsin."

On the trail: "Most of them have not made explicit appeals based on race in their campaigns, but many of those running as Democrats have embraced issues popular with minority voters and with the liberal base more generally, including voting rights and student loan relief, as well as access to abortion, which has emerged as a key issue in this year's midterm elections."

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

WHAT THE BIDENS ARE READING — "Biden's Delaware vacation home faces 'extreme' flood risk as climate change leads to rising seas," by CNN's Casey Tolan

CHEMICAL REACTION — So-called "forever chemicals," known as PFAS, are linked to a variety of health hazards, including cancer, and are contaminating much of the nation's drinking water. "Now, as state lawmakers and federal regulators get serious about removing them, scores of governments and water suppliers are in pitched court battles over who is on the hook for hundreds of billions of dollars in damage — the companies that created the chemicals or the customers who are drinking them," Ry Rivard and Jordan Wolman report.

WAR IN UKRAINE

PUMPING THE BRAKES — "U.S. leaders avoid victory dance in Ukraine combat advances," AP

ON THE GROUND — "'We prayed to be liberated': Inside a city recaptured by Ukraine after months of Russian occupation," by CNN's Rebecca Wright, Sam Kiley, Olha Konovalova and Peter Rudden

 

SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY.

 
 

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

NUKE NEGOTIATIONS — As negotiators try to hammer out a retooled Iran nuclear deal, officials in the U.S. and Europe are "increasingly gloomy" about getting something official on the books before the midterms this fall, WSJ's Laurence Norman writes. "U.S. officials say no decision has been taken by the administration to shelve the diplomatic effort, but a tightening political calendar at home leaves little time to reach a final agreement."

Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN: "What we've seen over the last week or so … is clearly a step backward and makes prospects for an agreement in the near term, I would say, unlikely. … I can't give you a timeline except to say, again, that Iran seems either unwilling or unable to do what is necessary to reach an agreement."

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — "This Might Not Be a Cold War, but It Feels Like One," news analysis by NYT's Jane Perlez

Related read: "Challenges for Russia and China Test a 'No-Limits' Friendship," by NYT's Keith Bradsher, Anton Troianovski and Jane Perlez

PLAYBOOKERS

TRANSITIONS — Max Seltzer has joined the Senate Commerce Committee Dems as a professional staff member focused on aviation. He previously was a senior associate at ACG Advocacy. … Douglas Farrar is joining the Federal Trade Commission as the director of public affairs. He was most recently VP of comms and strategy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Alexandra Lescroart, enterprise partnerships manager for Google, and Jason McMahon, professional staff member with the Senate Appropriations Committee welcomed Oliver James McMahon on Sept. 10. Pic

Correction: Monday's Playbook PM misstated the results of the latest Suffolk/USA Today poll in the Ohio Senate race. Tim Ryan leads J.D. Vance, 47% to 46%.

 

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California Today: Living in a disaster era

The state's longtime emergency services director offers advice and his outlook after an unprecedented decade.
Author Headshot

By Shawn Hubler

California Correspondent, National

It's Tuesday. The longtime state emergency services director, Mark Ghilarducci, talks about disasters before he leaves his post. Plus, the Mosquito fire continues to burn in the Sierra foothills.

Mark Ghilarducci, the state's emergency services director, right, with Gov. Gavin Newsom as he signed wildfire legislation in 2019. Ghilarducci has worked in emergency services for four decades. John G Mabanglo/EPA, via Shutterstock

Three times in the last four years, Mark Ghilarducci has tried to retire from his decade-long job as the head of emergency services in California, only to postpone because of some, well, emergency.

First, he was going to leave in 2018, as Gov. Gavin Newsom succeeded Gov. Jerry Brown. Two days after the election, the Camp fire razed the community of Paradise in Northern California. The fire was so catastrophic that Ghilarducci agreed to stay for an extra six months, which stretched into a year, after which he insisted that he was really quitting.

Then the coronavirus struck. Now, he is hoping, at 62, that the third time will be the charm.

Last week, as the governor prepared to conduct a national search for his replacement, we chatted in his office in the state's sprawling emergency services complex near Sacramento. It was unclear how, exactly, he might gracefully exit. Moments from a clean getaway, Ghilarducci, the youngest son of a Bay Area butcher and Bank of America worker, was juggling two deadly wildfires, a historic heat wave, a statewide threat of electrical blackouts and a tropical storm.

Here's some of our conversation, edited for clarity and length.

Four years after the fire in Paradise, California continues to be besieged by disaster. Put that in context, please.

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I can only speak to what's in front of me, but what I'm seeing is dramatic change in our climate that is resulting in extreme-weather-related impacts. We just came through a heat dome of unprecedented duration and intensity. We have hot summers, I get it — I went to U.C. Davis — and we've seen crazy extreme weather conditions. But I don't think this is an anomaly. This is the new normal.

So should Californians be making a run for it?

California isn't falling off the face of the earth, and California isn't collapsing. The beauty, the diversity, the complexity, all of those things make us strong but also make us challenging.

But I wonder when I see the heat events we're having: How bad is that going to get in the future? What does this drought look like in the future? Look at other parts of the world that have had similar heat and drought patterns — they essentially dried up and became very difficult places to live. Based on my experience, in actual events over the last 10 years, it's getting worse, not better. And we all have a part to play in that.

So how do we cope, if we aren't going to leave?

Part of it is reducing greenhouse gas emissions. But it's also being prepared. Those who understand that will best navigate a disaster. They've thought through their insurance. They've thought through their family plan. They've thought through their communications plan. We have a great tool called My Hazards, where you can just type in your address and it will help you plan.

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But it's not just natural disasters. Emergencies happen when you least expect them. You could be in the middle of an active shooter situation. Or all of a sudden there's a bomb threat. Or hazardous materials across the street. How do you handle that? When you walk into a facility, do you know where the exits are? Is there a back door? If the lights go out, do you know where to go?

Clocking the exits? Really?

Quite frankly, I do that every place we go. It's kind of weird to tell this, but when I walk into a facility, I don't like to sit with my back to the front door.

Isn't that a hard way to live?

It's not. It's a way to empower yourself to enjoy life without worrying about all those things. It's built-in muscle memory empowering you to deal with a situation if you have to. No one wants to think about an emergency until it happens. But at that point, it's too late.

Has it been harder since the pandemic to persuade people to think about safety?

At the beginning of the pandemic, California's secretary of health and human services, Mark Ghaly, pointed out that it would be a public relations challenge as much as a health challenge — that if you don't get the messaging right on the front end, public confidence would be lost and it will be almost impossible to get it back. California got it right, but the federal government didn't. President Trump and his team at the White House corrupted the message, to the point that no one knew what or who to believe, to this day.

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That mistrust must have been on your minds last week, when the state's ability to avoid rolling blackouts hinged on the public's sacrifice and cooperation.

Our experience in the pandemic did shape a lot of what we did. We never said, turn things off, for instance. Our message had been, conserve during these hours, turn your thermostat to 78. We were very judicious on the words we picked.

And then you and the California Independent System Operator, which manages the grid, issued that blaring cellphone alert.

At that point, we were at the razor's edge. We had to tell people, listen, the grid's about to collapse.

Were you afraid people wouldn't comply?

None of us knew what was going to happen. We've only used that alert two other times at the state level. But we did it and within minutes, you could see the graph change. We were sitting there in the room going, can this be right? We called ISO and people were cheering. To me it showed that the public still will listen and still wants to believe in government.

You sound optimistic.

I've been doing this a long time and I've seen a lot. Oklahoma City, 19 children in the basement of that building, having to take every one of those kids out. Whole families in Japan, where all the generations live together, trying to exit the front doors and these tile roofs collapsed. We'd remove the tile roofs and find whole families, all the generations, from the great-grandparents to the youngest child, all in a row, just crushed. I could go on.

But I've also seen people pull together at the most adverse times in the most adverse situations, and I've seen people do so much good.

Roberta Wolff-Platt and her son Richie Platt. Vanessa Leroy for The New York Times

If you read one story, make it this

In 2020, Carissa Chen, a Harvard student sequestered at home in California for the pandemic, began a research project on her university's ties to slavery. Now, descendants of people who were enslaved by Harvard's benefactors, presidents and professors are wondering what they are owed as the university makes amends.

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The Mosquito fire has burned more than 46,000 acres and was 10 percent contained as of Monday.Max Whittaker for The New York Times

The rest of the news

  • Extreme weather: The Mosquito fire continued to threaten thousands of mountain homes in Northern California on Monday, while remnants of last week's Pacific hurricane caused flash flooding in Lake Hughes and Death Valley, and heavy rains unleashed mudslides in San Bernardino County, The Associated Press reports.
  • Monkeypox: A Los Angeles County resident has died from monkeypox, the first fatality in the nation linked to the disease, The Los Angeles Times reports.
  • Top colleges: U.S. News has released its latest "Best Colleges" rankings. Stanford is in the top 5, Caltech is in the top 10, and U.C.L.A. and U.C. Berkeley are in the top 20. Among public universities, six U.C. campuses made the top 10. This comes as the publication faces increasing questions for its methodology after dropping Columbia University to No. 18 from No. 2.
  • Rising tuition: Of the top 20 schools on the U.S. News rankings, only the two U.C.s cost less than $55,000 for a year's out-of-state tuition and fees, Bloomberg reports.
  • Loans: Hundreds of thousands of former college students are eligible for a federal program that would wipe their student loan debt but are unaware, because of the program's poor communication and onerous rules, The Los Angeles Times reports.
  • Energy: Offshore wind projects near Santa Barbara and Humboldt Counties are facing pressure from competing industries, The Wall Street Journal reports.
  • Royalty: Former Gov. Jerry Brown and King Charles III have met three times since the 1970s. "I could see that he naturally would support environmentalism," Brown tells Politico.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • Emmy Awards: The Emmys, red carpet and all, returned to their downtown Los Angeles home at L.A. Live after two years of pandemic precautions. It was a big night for "White Lotus," "Ted Lasso" and "Succession." Here's a full report.
  • Rapper shot: PnB Rock, the Philadelphia rapper best known for his 2016 hit "Selfish," was killed Monday at Roscoe's Chicken & Waffles in South Los Angeles, The Los Angeles Times reports.
  • Arson: An arson investigation is beginning after the historic Victory Baptist Church in South Los Angeles was destroyed by a fire early Sunday, The Associated Press reports.
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
  • Sophia Mason: After nearly a six-month manhunt, a fugitive suspect has been arrested in the killing of Sophia Mason, 8, and will be held at the Merced County jail, The Fresno Bee reports.
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • Poll: A new survey of San Franciscans finds the city deeply unhappy, with roughly one-third of respondents saying they were likely to leave within the next three years and 65 percent saying that life in the city is worse than when they first moved there, The San Francisco Chronicle reports.
  • DNA: A woman whose rape kit DNA was used by the police to arrest her in connection with an unrelated property crime last year has sued the city of San Francisco, saying the authorities violated her rights, The San Francisco Chronicle reports.
  • Trash: After scouring just one mile of Fallen Leaf Lake near South Lake Tahoe, divers were surprised to have removed 3,000 pounds of trash and about 100 car tires, The San Francisco Chronicle reports.
  • Wildfires: The New Yorker's Tucker Nichols returns to the Eldorado National Forest to hike and sketch the aftermath of last year's Caldor fire.
  • Scooters: San Francisco is mulling tough new rules to clear sidewalks of e-scooters, The San Francisco Standard reports.
Joe Lingeman for The New York Times

What we're eating

Pasta with pumpkin seed pesto.

Emerald Bay, near Desolation Wilderness in South Lake Tahoe.Rich Pedroncelli/Associated Press

Where we're traveling

Today's tip comes from Patricia Tweedy, who lives in Sacramento. Patricia recommends Desolation Wilderness, federally protected land near Lake Tahoe:

"This could be one of the most beautiful places on earth. If you are hardy and strong, backpacking is a perfect way to see this land of Alpine trees, white granite and numerous lakes. If you want good day hikes, there are plenty. I like the hike to Twin Lakes in early July when the wildflowers are blooming. I haven't been since the Caldor fire and want to see if it damaged the beauty around that hike."

Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com. We'll be sharing more in upcoming editions of the newsletter.

Goofing off during Spanish class, the last class of the day, a.k.a. the most relaxing period of the day.Jahmese Jones Dunbar

And before you go, some good news

It's "somewhere you can build your confidence in life, even if you are not too sure about it." It's "a place where people want to see the real you." In a poignant report for New York Times Opinion, students from Fremont High in Oakland shared what grown-ups don't understand about school.

Thanks for reading. We'll be back tomorrow.

Soumya Karlamangla, Allison Honors, Briana Scalia and Harrison Hill contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.

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