8 new swing-seat campaigns to know

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Jul 10, 2023 View in browser
 
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Nevada Republican U.S. Senate candidate Sam Brown speaks to the media as he was at Reno High School for casting his ballot in Reno, Nev., Tuesday, June 14, 2022. (AP Photo/Tom R. Smedes)

Sam Brown, a Republican who earned a Purple Heart in Afghanistan, launched his second consecutive Senate campaign — this time with full-throated establishment support. | Tom R. Smedes/AP Photo

LAUNCH MODE — With the Fourth of July breather come and gone, American politics is swinging back into campaign mode: No fewer than eight challengers are announcing bids for key swing Senate and House seats across the country today.

A number of them are prominent repeat contenders — also known as losers — who fell short in primary or general-election campaigns but are back for more. And several will set up difficult primary contests against high-profile names who have already jumped in.

Nevada: SAM BROWN, a Republican who earned a Purple Heart in Afghanistan, launched his second consecutive Senate campaign — this time with full-throated establishment support from the NRSC, Fox News’ Brandon Gillespie and Paul Steinhauser report. In addition to touting his military record, Brown focuses on attacking Democratic Sen. JACKY ROSEN over the economy, crime and education. The big question is whether Washington Republicans will get their pick for November in a primary that also includes prominent election denier JIM MARCHANT.

Texas: State Sen. ROLAND GUTIERREZ jumped into the Democratic Senate primary to take on GOP Sen. TED CRUZ, teeing up what looks to be a two-way race against Democratic Rep. COLIN ALLRED, The Texas Tribune’s Patrick Svitek reports. As a representative for Uvalde, Gutierrez focuses on guns in his launch video in the wake of the school massacre there. But he also targets Cruz with a populist message of standing up for poor and working people — and, yes, there’s a Cancun mention. Launch video

Michigan: Actor and activist HILL HARPER leapt into the open Senate race, mounting a progressive challenge to Democratic frontrunner Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN. The “Good Doctor” star and Harvard Law grad tells Time’s Mini Racker that “career politicians” who write him off are overlooking “his decades of activism, authorship, and community investment that would normally be seen as an ideal resume.” Launch video in the form of a message to his son

In the race to replace Slotkin, meanwhile, Democrat CURTIS HERTEL JR. jumped in today. A former state senator and a member of a prominent Michigan political family, Hertel has Slotkin’s backing. The open seat is expected to be very competitive as Republican TOM BARRETT makes another go. More from the AP

Montana: Democrat MONICA TRANEL will try again to beat GOP Rep. RYAN ZINKE, who pulled out a narrow victory in November, ABC Fox Montana’s Noah Corrin and Bradley Warren report. The rancher and former Olympic rower is already talking up abortion rights as a key issue in the race.

Oregon: JAMIE McLEOD-SKINNER, the progressive who lost a Democratic-held seat last year after ousting Rep. KURT SCHRADER in the primary, will try again to take on Republican Rep. LORI CHAVEZ-DeREMER, per KTVZ-TV. Fellow Democratic candidate KEVIN EASTON said he’ll suspend his campaign and support McLeod-Skinner, but she’s got other prominent opposition in the primary.

Wisconsin: Democrat REBECCA COOKE will make another run for the House seat held by GOP Rep. DERRICK VAN ORDEN, a competitive district that could also be affected by a map redraw, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Lawrence Andrea reports. At least three other Dems are considering bids, including state Sen. BRAD PFAFF, who beat Cooke in the 2022 primary.

Ohio: Republican attorney ORLANDO SONZA is set today to become the first announced challenger to Democratic Rep. GREG LANDSMAN, the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Scott Wartman reports. Landsman flipped the swing seat last year and could be among the most vulnerable House Dems.

HALEY’S HAUL — NIKKI HALEY’s presidential campaign and affiliated political committees collectively raised $7.3 million last quarter, Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser scooped. The campaign had $9.3 million on hand at the end of June, and Stand for America Fund had $17 million. Haley also says she’s cleared the donor threshold for the first debate.

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CONGRESS

LET FREEDOM RING OFF — The House Freedom Caucus is something of a ticking time bomb as members simmer over their lack of direction and attention from House GOP leadership. Inside the cohort, “side sessions and private discussions among a small bloc of rebellious lawmakers have become more common and even necessary, some members say, after months of internal disagreements over tactics, policies and allegiances to their party’s leadership have fomented distrust within the group’s ranks,” CNN’s Melanie Zanona and Annie Grayer report in a rollicking read on the caucus’ uncertain future.

Can’t-miss detail: Tensions are running so high that even Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio), an OG member of the group, isn’t immune. “GOP Rep. BOB GOOD of Virginia, who serves in the Freedom Caucus, has called Jordan a RINO – ‘Republican in Name Only’ – behind his back,” Zanona and Grayer report, though a spokesperson for Good denied the claim.

The state of things: It all amounts to a fractured caucus that is trying to find its footing among a messy majority under Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY. “One conservative lawmaker who has been in meetings with Freedom Caucus members and McCarthy said members of the group tend to all ask for different things, undermining their negotiating hand. … ‘Days are numbered anyway for the group,’ the conservative lawmaker, who is often aligned with the group, told CNN. ‘Because they go in 100 different directions.’”

KNOWING ANNA PAULINA LUNA — “The Influencer Who Came to Congress,” by Time’s Eric Cortellessa: “[E]ven her critics recognize her potential to harness a new generation of crusading right-wing populists. Inside her office last month, wearing a bomber jacket over a white button-down shirt with a black tie, Luna spoke of the liberating power of using alternative media — the instrument through which she can both channel and ignite the base’s grievances — to circumvent the mainstream press. … Now, she’s pushing the limits of the hard-right rebellion already upending power throughout the country.”

BATTLE FOR THE BALLOT — In case you needed a reminder of how far apart the two parties are on voting, we’re set for a clear display in the coming weeks. “The parties will unveil separate and competing proposals that will have little chance of success in a divided government, but are likely to be used to rally supporters ahead of the 2024 elections,” AP’s Stephen Groves and Christina Cassidy write. Republicans’ bill, set to be introduced today, would “tighten voting laws and take a defiant stand against concerns that laws passed in recent years by GOP-controlled state legislatures disadvantage some voters. Meanwhile, Democrats’ version would “set federal voting standards and restore protections under the Voting Rights Act.”

ALL POLITICS

CASH DASH — Sen. SHERROD BROWN (D-Ohio) raised $5 million last quarter and went into July with $8.7 million on hand, The Messenger’s Dan Merica and Matt Holt scooped. That’s a strong haul for one of the Senate’s most endangered incumbents. This race is one of a handful that will likely decide control of the chamber.

— Rosen, another vulnerable Democrat in a swing state, raised $2.7 million last quarter, per The Nevada Independent’s Gabby Birenbaum. She ended the quarter with $7.5 million on hand, which her campaign touted as a state record at this point in a cycle. Birenbaum also notes that these numbers put Rosen closely on par with Sen. CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO (D-Nev.) last cycle.

— “Project Rescue America, a super PAC backing the reelection of GOP Sen. RICK SCOTT of Florida in 2024, announced that it ‘raised almost $1.2 million in its first quarter of operation after forming in April 2023,’” The Dispatch’s David Drucker, Audrey Fahlberg and Thomas Dorsey report. “The super PAC reports more than $1.1 million on hand.”

MUCK READ — “Documents Provide Rare Glimpse Into How Arabella Advisors Exerts Centralized Control Over a Vast Left-Wing Advocacy Network,” by The Washington Free Beacon’s Andrew Kerr and Joseph Simonson: “This is hardly the sort of relationship that Arabella and two of its offshoots, New Venture Fund and the Sixteen Thirty Fund, described to the IRS when seeking tax-exempt status.”

 

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2024 WATCH

SUPER-SIZE ME — While many of the 2024 Republican presidential hopefuls focus all of their firepower on the early nominating states, frontrunning DONALD TRUMP and chief rival RON DeSANTIS are widening their gazes to “states like Tennessee and Alabama that will hold elections on so-called Super Tuesday,” AP’s Sara Burnett writes. The Florida governor is set to hit Nashville, Tenn., this weekend, while Trump will headline a GOP event in Alabama in a few weeks.

NOTABLE STANCE — “Mike Pence backs U.S. sending cluster munitions to Ukraine,” by NBC’s Rebecca Shabad

DEBATE SCRAMBLE — As Republican candidates race to gather 40,000 individual donors to meet the qualifying threshold for the first primary debate, VIVEK RAMASWAMY is trying something different: giving supporters 10% of the donations they can convince others to contribute, Natalie Allison reports. In the “Vivek Kitchen Cabinet,” “supporters will undergo a background check before being issued an affiliate link to share to raise money for the candidate.” Ramaswamy calls it a “revolution” in political fundraising.

POLICY CORNER

BANK ON IT — “Fed’s bank cop calls for tougher capital rules, setting up clash with lenders,” by Zachary Warmbrodt: “MICHAEL BARR, the Federal Reserve’s point-person for financial system oversight, laid out a series of recommendations Monday that would require large lenders to raise more capital to navigate economic turbulence.”

RUBBER MEETS THE LITERAL ROAD — The Inflation Reduction Act’s big drive to bolster electric vehicles is running into major questions from the United Auto Workers, setting up a clash between two crucial parts of the Democratic coalition, WaPo’s Jeanne Whalen reports. With major contract negotiations kicking off this week, union leaders have “directed unusual ire at Biden,” particularly over low pay for electric vehicle workers. And a strike could loom as soon as September at some plants if a deal isn’t reached.

 

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MEDIAWATCH

FOX IN THE DOGHOUSE — Fox News could be in for another bruising court case centered on claims of defamation, coming just months after the historic settlement with Dominion Voting Systems that thrust some of the companies’ messiest internal issues into the spotlight. RAY EPPS, an Arizona Trump voter who was present on Jan. 6 but never entered the Capitol, has not been charged in the DOJ’s investigation — a fact that TUCKER CARLSON insisted on his show meant he was a covert government agent that helped “stage-manage” the insurrection.

“Now lawyers representing Mr. Epps and his wife are proceeding with plans to sue Fox News for defamation,” NYT’s Jeremy Peters and Alan Feuer write. (Epps and Fox News declined to comment for the article.)

SCAM SEASON — “Right-Wing Websites Connected to Former Trump Lawyer Are Scamming Loyal Followers With Phony Celebrity Pitches,” by ProPublica’s Craig Silverman: “A mysterious network called AdStyle is placing ads with fake endorsements from celebrities like OPRAH WINFREY and ELON MUSK on conservative sites based in the U.S. and abroad.” (The lawyer in question is DAVID WARRINGTON.)

PLAYBOOKERS

SPOTTED: Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) at a showing of “Insidious: The Red Door” at Regal Gallery Place on Friday night.

OUT AND ABOUT — The Restaurant Association of Metropolitan Washington held the 41st annual RAMMY awards gala at the Convention Center last night to honor the D.C. area’s best restaurants, chefs, and alcohol and service programs. Notable winners: Upscale Casual Restaurant of the Year: L’Ardente; Chef of the Year: Kevin Tien, Moon Rabbit; New Restaurant of the Year: Causa/Amazonia; Restaurateur of the Year: Rose Previte, No White Plates, Compass Rose, Maydan and Kirby Club. SPOTTED: D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser, D.C. AG Brian Schwalb, D.C. Councilmembers Brooke Pinto, Matt Frumin, Charles Allen, Christina Henderson and Robert White, Eun Yang, Jummy Olabanji, Tommy McFly, Holly Morris, Symone Sanders-Townsend. Pic

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Dan Watson is now assistant secretary for the Office of Public Affairs at DHS. He most recently was managing director at FGS Global and is an Obama Treasury and FEMA alum. Watson replaces Marsha Espinosa.

TRANSITIONS — Caroline Welles is now executive director of The First Ask, an organization focused on recruiting Democratic female first-time candidates. She previously was director of surrogates at the DNC. … Melanie Janin is now chief comms and marketing officer for Conservation International. She previously was an EVP at Weber Shandwick. … Jonathan Jagoda is now senior policy adviser at Alston & Bird. He previously was an SVP at the Federation of American Hospitals. …

… Chase Hardin is now comms director for Patriotic Millionaires. He previously was an associate VP at the Clyde Group. … Zach Farmer is now government relations Washington representative for the American Motorcyclist Association. He previously was director of congressional affairs at the Council for Opportunity in Education.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Sourav Bhowmick, senior adviser and chief of staff for IRA implementation at the Treasury Department, and Neena Malik, a gastroenterologist at Mid-Atlantic Permanente Medical Group, recently welcomed daughter Sahana Bhowmick.

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California Today: State allocates $20 million for flooded Central Valley farm town

The undocumented status of many residents of Planada, east of Merced, meant they were ineligible for federal aid after winter storms ravaged their town.
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By Soumya Karlamangla

California Today, Writer

It's Monday. The California state budget includes $20 million for Planada, a Central Valley town still struggling to recover from winter storms. Plus, the "great resignation" appears to be over.

Homes in Planada were surrounded by floodwaters after a series of severe storms in January.Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

When an "atmospheric river" dumped torrents of rain over the Central Valley in January, the small rural town of Planada was devastated.

Hundreds of houses swelled with muddy floodwaters more than a foot deep. Cars were wrecked. Many residents couldn't work because the fields where they were employed as farmworkers were drenched. Dozens of families lost most of their possessions and had to move into temporary shelters.

And when financial relief was made available, it fell short.

Many of the 4,000 people who live in Planada, an agricultural community nine miles east of Merced, are undocumented, as are most California farmworkers. That meant that 41 percent of the flood-damaged households in Planada were ineligible for federal disaster aid, according to an analysis by the University of California, Merced, Community and Labor Center. And nearly 60 percent of the Planada households in which at least one member lost work were unable to apply for unemployment benefits, the survey found.

For the undocumented low-income workers whom California's economy relies on, "there's been just so many different major public emergencies, from Covid to catastrophic wildfires to smoke and drought, and now floods," said Edward Flores, an associate professor of sociology at U.C. Merced who co-wrote the report. "It's clear that this is a huge gap in the economic safety net for residents of California."

As many residents know too well, California's weather is increasingly tilting toward disaster, with droughts lasting longer and storms growing bigger and more furious because of climate change. The state's poorer workers tend to live in areas with inferior infrastructure. They are less likely to be able to afford flood and other disaster insurance, and they may be excluded from relief because they lack legal status.

In Planada, in the flatlands about an hour west of Yosemite National Park, many families have been left to scrape together money on their own to pay for expensive repairs from the flooding and to replace the clothes, books and furniture that were damaged beyond repair. Some had to flee their houses in pajamas, carrying just their pets.

"Many of them, still to this day, are waiting for all of the wood to dry out," said Assemblywoman Esmeralda Soria, who represents Merced. Others who lost the cars they used to get to work and school, she said, are even now "relying on their neighbors and friends to transport them."

Soria and State Senator Anna Caballero, whose district includes Planada, pushed to secure $20 million for Planada in the state budget, which Gov. Gavin Newsom signed late last month. The money will help residents buy vehicles, pay rent or mortgages, and afford home remediation, among other things.

"It really was devastating," Caballero said of the storm damage in Planada. "It's still devastating."

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Another $20 million is in the budget for Pajaro, a small farmworkers' town in Monterey County that also was severely flooded over the winter.

But the budget agreement killed a proposal to create an unemployment insurance program for the more than 1.5 million undocumented workers in California, which advocates said would have helped during future disasters. They point out that many undocumented workers already pay taxes on their wages that finance a system that excludes them.

The state estimated that extending unemployment insurance to Californians without legal status would require a one-time cost of roughly $270 million and annual costs of up to $385 million in benefit payments and administrative expenses.

The sisters Adalynn and Sinclaire Wallace, 9 and 7, took a break during a swim lesson at Salgado Community Center in Santa Ana.Gabriella Angotti-Jones for The New York Times

If you read one story, make it this

Drowning is the No. 1 killer of young children. But U.S. efforts to fix it are lagging.

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Migrants entered a church to meet up with volunteers and other migrants after they were flown to Martha's Vineyard, in Massachusetts, last September.Matt Cosby for The New York Times

The rest of the news

  • Migrant transfers: Democratic leaders in California and Texas urged the Justice Department to investigate a Florida program that has transported asylum seekers who were in Texas to Martha's Vineyard or Sacramento.
  • "Great resignation": The rate at which Americans are quitting their jobs has fallen sharply in recent months, to a level only modestly higher than before the pandemic. Will the gains workers made during the "great resignation" outlive the moment?
  • Assembly speaker: Robert Rivas, who was sworn in as the speaker of the California Assembly on June 30, said he hoped to unify the Democratic caucus, The Associated Press reports.
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • Plane crash: Six people were killed when a small plane flying from Las Vegas crashed near an airport in Murrieta.
  • Gun violence: The police arrested a suspect after a series of random shootings in East Los Angeles and Boyle Heights, The Associated Press reports.
  • Congressional retirement: Grace Napolitano, Democrat of Norwalk and the oldest member of the House, announced that she would retire from Congress, The Los Angeles Times reports.
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
  • Yosemite congestion: The top official at Yosemite National Park said the park might have to bring back a reservation system to address overcrowding, The San Francisco Chronicle reports.
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • Children in San Francisco: The Bay Area has the smallest percentage of residents under 18 of any major U.S. urban area. Two mothers are working to make it more child-friendly, The San Francisco Chronicle reports.
  • Homelessness lawsuit: Mayor London Breed of San Francisco pushed back against claims made by homelessness advocates in a lawsuit over the city's response to encampments, The San Francisco Chronicle reports.

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The Valley Project wine tasting room in Santa Barbara.Tanveer Badal for The New York Times

Where we're traveling

Today's tip comes from Lynn Lorenz, who lives in Newport Beach:

"My favorite place of all is the Central Coast because it is less congested than areas to the north and south, and because it offers wonderful small and unique wineries to visit. Most wineries around Sacramento and the Bay Area are much busier and much less laid back than those on the Central Coast.

You can stay in Santa Barbara and drive north to visit the wineries, which are from one to three hours away. Or you can stay in boutique hotels that are beginning to pop up alongside the small wineries, which dot the beautiful, open landscape. Some wineries are just a decade old, while others date back many years. Whatever your pleasure, the Central Coast does not disappoint when it comes to beauty, serenity and culinary pleasures."

Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com. We'll be sharing more in upcoming editions of the newsletter.

A Cuvier's beaked whale last week in Monterey Bay.Johanna Domise/Monterey Bay Whale Watch

And before you go, some good news

Cuvier's beaked whales are rarely spotted by whale watchers because they can dive miles below the ocean's surface and hold their breath for as long as four hours, The Sacramento Bee reports.

But a tour group in Monterey Bay recently caught a glimpse of the creatures. Photos show the tan-colored whales bobbing on the water, and one whale's pale beak poking above it.

Thanks for reading. I'll be back tomorrow. — Soumya

Briana Scalia, Sadiba Hasan and Shivani Gonzalez contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.

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