Will Washington close a chapter on Iraq?

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Mar 16, 2023 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Eli Okun

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President Joe Biden speaks about health care and prescription drug costs at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Wednesday, March 15, 2023, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

The White House this morning indicated that President Joe Biden would sign the AUMFs repeal into law if it passes. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo

AUMF OOMPH — The Senate just voted to advance a repeal of the 1991 and 2002 authorizations for use of military force in Iraq, which paved the way for U.S. wars in Iraq that dominated much of the last quarter-century’s geopolitics.

With bipartisan backing in the upper chamber, the procedural motion passed 68-27, likely teeing up a final vote in the Senate next week. Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER said he expects a number of amendments to be offered on the floor before then. (Katherine Tully-McManus has a good breakdown in today’s Huddle of what those amendments might look like.) The White House this morning indicated that President JOE BIDEN would sign the repeal into law if it passes, arguing that “outdated authorizations” should be “replaced with a narrow and specific framework more appropriate to protecting Americans from modern terrorist threats.”

The repeal would be symbolic, as the U.S. has said it has no ongoing military operations that would be affected. But the ramifications are striking nonetheless: Clawing back the AUMFs would mark a reassertion by Congress of its constitutional role in declaring war, as critics have accused Democratic and Republican administrations of abusing the authorizations to take wide-ranging military actions abroad.

It would also formally close a chapter on a military era that has transformed the Middle East and U.S. politics. Two decades after GEORGE W. BUSH invaded Iraq, Reuters’ Arshad Mohammed and Jonathan Landay examine the reverberations still being felt today. They range from “an empowered Iran and eroded U.S. influence to the cost of keeping U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria to combat Islamic State fighters,” as well as ethnic strife in the region.

Domestically, a bipartisan backlash to the Iraq War laid the groundwork for a growing isolationist-populist streak in the GOP and, on the left, broad mistrust of the political establishment.

But, but, but: The repeal still faces one big outstanding question mark: Whither the House GOP? It’s not clear whether Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY’s chamber would take up the resolution, as divides over foreign policy and defense spending have grown in his conference. Sarah Ferris notes the unusual dynamic: “If McCarthy brings to floor, it would prob pass.. BUT thanks to Dem votes, breaking Hastert rule. Conservatives usually hate this. But in this case, it's these guys (GAETZ, ROY, etc) who actually back AUMF repeal!”

MAGA IN THE HOUSE — The Conservative Partnership Institute led a “bootcamp” for House Republican staffers last month to train them on how to investigate the Biden administration, Heidi Przybyla reveals. The Eastern Shore gathering shows how Trump-aligned right-wing advocates are helping to shape the next generation of conservative Hill staffers, with “tutorials on obtaining records and deposing and interviewing witnesses.” Ethics experts say the retreat is legal but ethically dubious by casting the specter of external partisan activism over official congressional investigations.

FASCINATING READ — “Louis DeJoy’s Surprising Second Act,” by Time’s Eric Cortellessa: “[T]o the astonishment of many in Washington, the man Democrats once denounced as a threat to American democracy has become one of their most important allies in government. … [LOUIS] DeJOY may be the only person on earth who could have delivered these wins for America’s beloved, beleaguered [Postal Service]. That’s partly because of the perverse credibility his association with former President Donald Trump and the scandalous 2020 headlines give him with Republicans. It’s also his stubborn insistence that he wasn’t going to allow allegations levied against him in the thick of an inflammatory political season define him.”

Good Thursday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.

 

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CONGRESS

YELLEN TALKIN’ — “Janet Yellen says U.S. banking system ‘remains sound’ despite bank failures,” by FT’s James Politi and Lauren Fedor: Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN was grilled by lawmakers on the Senate finance committee regarding the aggressive intervention by US regulators and officials … ‘Inflation played a key role in the recent bank failures, as rising interest rates and mismanaged interest rate risk led to a liquidity crisis,’ said MIKE CRAPO, the Idaho senator and top Republican on the panel.”

Yellen also again slammed the idea of debt prioritization to avert default later this year, calling it an “incredibly risky and dangerous idea.”

SVB FALLOUT — Even though revised banking regulations look unlikely to go anywhere in Congress, members of both parties are voicing support for federal deposit insurance changes, Semafor’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig reports. “Lawmakers now seem willing to revisit the existing $250,000 federal insurance limit on checking and savings accounts, last raised in 2008.” Senators from ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) to MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.) sound open to the idea.

— JPMorgan Chase and other big banks are considering a rescue of First Republic Bank, one of the other midsize banks that’s been teetering this week, WSJ’s David Benoit, Dana Cimilluca, AnnaMaria Andriotis and Ben Eisen scooped. Though it’s not a done deal, they’re discussing “a sizable capital infusion.”

2024 WATCH

COMING SOON TO AN ‘SNL’ SKETCH — If you thought Lauren Egan’s story this morning on MARIANNE WILLIAMSON’s treatment of staff was this cycle’s AMY-KLOBUCHAR-eating-salad-with-a-comb equivalent, just wait: The Daily Beast’s Jake Lahut and Zachary Petrizzo recount a plane ride where Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS ate chocolate pudding with three fingers. It’s part of a broader look at DeSantis’ troubles with basic social skills and pleasantries on the campaign trail, which former staffers say “make him difficult to manage ahead of events” and threaten his ability to connect with voters. And “his propensity to devour food during meetings,” in particular, comes up a lot.

 

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MORE POLITICS

HOUSTON, WE HAVE A CONTENDER — Rep. SHEILA JACKSON LEE (D-Texas) is considering a bid for the mayor of Houston, Semafor’s Kadia Goba reports. She’d be far from the only notable Democrat in the race, but she’d likely enter with a name recognition advantage.

INDEPENDENT SINEMA — “Yes, Kyrsten Sinema can win as independent in Arizona,” by Vox’s Christian Paz: “Her campaign would zero in on the politically moderate, wealthier, and unaffiliated voters that live in the state’s suburban neighborhoods and would aim to peel away support from a Trump-aligned Republican. And it would need to raise a lot of money — at least $40 million to be competitive, according to in-state experts.”

THE NEW GOP — The New York Young Republican Club is a separate group from the state GOP, but it’s a growing center of MAGA energy siphoning attention from the Republican establishment, NYT’s Jesse McKinley and Maggie Haberman report. GAVIN WAX’s group takes a more bellicose approach and throws parties where ROGER STONE pours martinis. But Republicans in the state are divided over how best to capitalize on their strong performance last year.

THE ECONOMY

THE UNEMPLOYMENT PICTURE — New jobless claims last week plummeted to 192,000, the biggest decrease since July, per new data out today. But that might have been partially driven by seasonal factors specific to New York, where school workers were coming off spring break. More from Bloomberg

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

CLOSE ENCOUNTERS — The U.S. put out footage today of the interception between Russian fighter jets and a U.S. drone over the Black Sea, providing evidence that a collision did in fact occur despite Russian denials. Watch via CNN

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

DeSANTIS’ AMERICA — “Florida Scoured Math Textbooks for ‘Prohibited Topics.’ Next Up: Social Studies,” by NYT’s Sarah Mervosh: “A prominent conservative education group, whose members volunteered to review textbooks, objected to a slew of them, accusing publishers of ‘promoting their bias.’ … And in a sign of how fraught the political landscape has become, one publisher created multiple versions of its social studies material, softening or eliminating references to race — even in the story of ROSA PARKS — as it sought to gain approval in Florida.”

WAR IN UKRAINE

AFTERNOON READ — “The Ukraine war is Antony Blinken’s defining moment,” by WaPo’s John Hudson: “For [ANTONY] BLINKEN, the secretary-of-state role represents a career pinnacle — a dynamic that, in theory, frees him of the political constraints that shackled others who saw the job as a steppingstone to grander ambitions. Yet, his predisposition is one of caution … Blinken’s skepticism about peace talks are widely shared within the Biden administration, but not universally.”

SCRAMBLE FOR SUPPLIES — Ukrainian requests for more ammunition have surged such that the U.S. is now pulling supplies from its prepositioned stocks in Germany, Israel and elsewhere, WSJ’s Gordon Lubold, Nancy Youssef and Brett Forrest scoop. The U.S. started late last year to tap these stockpiles and is seeking support from other allies to help bolster Kyiv ahead of a spring offensive. But some military planners warn that U.S. stocks are now running too low.

 

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MEDIAWATCH

ELITE STRIKE FORCE TEAM — SIDNEY POWELL’s promotion of false conspiracy theories about the 2020 election — and Fox News’ choice to keep putting her on air that year — is a central piece of Dominion Voting Systems’ defamation lawsuit against the network, WaPo’s Sarah Ellison and Amy Gardner report. Powell’s commentary “helped elevate a once-obscure lawyer to a marquee player in Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election — and helped keep her claims of fraud on the forefront for millions of loyal Fox viewers, including Trump himself,” as new documents have shown. Fox News declined to comment for the story.

AFTERNOON NEWS DUMP — “The New Prime Time for TV News: Afternoons,” by NYT’s Michael M. Grynbaum: “Without the visceral urgency of a dangerous virus — or a sitting president who tweets erratically late into the night — America’s news obsessives may simply feel more comfortable changing the channel in the evenings rather than waiting on tenterhooks for the latest development. At the same time, prime-time stars like [RACHEL] MADDOW have moved on from their regular time slots.”

POLICY CORNER

BIG INVESTIGATION — “Failed oversight, lax punishments: How the Coast Guard has allowed sexual assault at sea to go unchecked,” by CNN’s Blake Ellis and Melanie Hicken: “The Coast Guard is responsible for the initial vetting of mariners as well as continued monitoring and enforcement of misconduct on land or while on the job that would make them ineligible for a credential. … [But] the Coast Guard has failed to use its power to prevent and punish sexual assault and misconduct for decades.”

PLAYBOOKERS

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a U.S.-Ireland Partnership for Growth reception last night at the Riggs building: Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Irish Ambassador Geraldine Byrne Nason, British Ambassador Karen Pierce, Mike Donilon, Evan Ryan, Margaret Brennan, Kaitlan Collins, John McCarthy, Tammy Haddad, Danny O’Brien, Carmel Martin and Norah O’Donnell.

MEDIA MOVES — WaPo has added Marianne LeVine as a national political reporter and Jesús Rodríguez as a political reporter in Style. LeVine previously was a congressional reporter for POLITICO. Rodríguez previously was a staff writer at POLITICO Magazine.

TRANSITIONS — Satya Thallam is now a policy adviser at Arnold & Porter. He was previously head of policy at EQRx and is a White House alum. … Maggie Clemmons is now comms director for Rep. Michael Cloud (R-Texas). She previously was comms manager for domestic policy, media and public relations at the Heritage Foundation … Katherine Mongé is now a partner at Capitol Tax Partners. She previously was a senior policy adviser for former Speaker Nancy Pelosi. …

Susana Parra is now special projects and operations manager at Building Back Together. She previously was at the DCCC. … Rebecca Coffman is now VP for growth and operations at VoteAmerica. She most recently was head of growth at Dobby and is a Stand Together alum. … David Ferguson is now senior director at BGR Public Relations. He previously owned his own firm, Ferguson & Associates.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Josh Randle, CEO of Randle Strategies and a senior adviser at Haddad Media, and Alexandra Peters Randle welcomed James Peters Randle on Tuesday. He came in at 8 lbs, 6 oz and 21 inches, and joins big sister Ann Louise. PicAnother pic

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California Today: Elephant seals’ remarkable recovery

Hunted nearly to extinction, northern elephant seals, native to the waters off the West Coast, now number more than 175,000.
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By Soumya Karlamangla

California Today, Writer

It's Thursday. How California's elephant seals came back from near extinction. Plus, a former Los Angeles mayor, Eric Garcetti, is confirmed as ambassador to India.

Hundreds of elephant seals rest on the beach at Año Nuevo State Park in California.Jessica Christian/The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images

PESCADERO, Calif. — Before summiting the slippery beachside dunes, wind-whipped sand spraying my face, I could hear what was on the other side.

Raspy grunts, high-pitched mews, guttural barks and the occasional roar bellowed toward my group of hikers at Año Nuevo State Park, a remote strip of coastal bluffs about 60 miles south of San Francisco. Once we crossed over to the wide sandy beach, the source of the commotion became obvious: hundreds of elephant seals, their slick blubbery bodies splaying out on the land or flopping into the chilly waters of the Pacific.

On the afternoon last month that I visited, 1,425 seals were sunbathing, diving and wrestling in the park, one of their major breeding grounds along the California coast. Tens of thousands of seals arrive on the Golden State's beaches each year to mate, give birth and nurse — an impressive sight, and a testament to one of the most successful conservation stories in California history.

"They were thought to be extinct," said Adam Ratner, associate director of conservation education at the Sausalito-based Marine Mammal Center, an animal hospital that cares for wild elephant seals. "We basically had a second chance with this species — and what's amazing about marine mammals and other wildlife is how resilient they are."

Northern elephant seals, which can weigh up to 5,000 pounds and are named for the males' distinctive trunk-like noses, live in the eastern Pacific Ocean. They spend most of their time diving for fish and squid in the deep seas between Alaska and Mexico but come to land to breed and molt. (Southern elephant seals, their close relatives, are slightly larger and found around Antarctica.)

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The seals were hunted so much for their blubber, coveted by humans as a source of fuel, that between 1884 and 1892, not a single northern elephant seal was seen anywhere in the world, according to the National Park Service.

Then a small colony of elephant seals was found on Guadalupe Island off the coast of Baja California in Mexico. After laws were enacted in Mexico and the United States banned hunting of elephant seals, that colony — estimated to have dwindled to fewer than 100 animals — was able to keep reproducing, and the population rebounded.

Elephant seals started popping up in places they had long abandoned or had never been sighted before, as they sought more beach space for their annual breeding. Elephant seals recolonized the Channel Islands in California following federal protection in the 1930s, and were spotted at Año Nuevo, along the wind-swept San Mateo coast, in 1955. In later decades, they spread to Point Reyes in Marin County, the Big Sur Coast and farther south toward San Luis Obispo.

"It's a fabulous success story," said Kathleen Curtis, president of Friends of the Elephant Seal, a nonprofit organization based in San Simeon, Calif., home to what's now the biggest elephant seal colony on the mainland. "It's such a privilege to be able to peek into elephant seals' lives the way we can," she said.

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These huge, magnificent mammals still face some threats. There are, of course, disturbances from humans, as the seals encroach on familiar beaches. There are also concerns about their vulnerability to disease, given the population's lack of genetic diversity: They all descend from the same small group of seals discovered a century ago.

And there are new, growing problems linked to climate change.

When atmospheric rivers slammed California in January, an estimated 100 newborn seals at Point Reyes National Seashore died, as king tides overwhelmed the beaches. Pups don't learn how to swim until they are a few months old, and many were too young when the storms hit, according to Sarah Codde, a marine ecologist at the park.

Rising tides in general threaten the habitats of these animals, many of which breed on narrow beaches backed by steep cliffs, with little space to retreat from the water. After the January storms, many pregnant seals at Point Reyes moved to previously uninhabited beaches in the park, Codde said, but there are only so many easily accessible places to relocate to.

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Still, the elephant seal population is, for the most part, booming. There are now believed to be 175,000 of the seals worldwide, and they have even begun to occupy breeding grounds outside of what's considered their historic range. Elephant seal colonies have recently appeared in Humboldt County, and even as far north as Oregon and Vancouver Island, Canada.

"Now we think the elephant seal population is greater than it ever was before," Codde told me. "We expect them to keep increasing and keep expanding, because nothing is really holding them back."

For more:

  • How to see elephant seals at Año Nuevo State Park, Point Reyes or Piedras Blancas in San Simeon."That's what makes California so special: From San Francisco, you can go see any of these three major mainland rookeries within a one-day drive," Ratner told me. "You can't say that about a lot of prominent wildlife."
  • Those are the largest mainland colonies. The absolute largest elephant seal colony is in Channel Islands National Park off the coast of Ventura. Here's how to see them there.
  • Don't have time to visit? Friends of the Elephant Seal has a live cam of the seals.

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The University of California system, including Riverside, has been hit by severe cutbacks because of the state's budget deficit.Monica Almeida/The New York Times

The rest of the news

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • Ambassador: The Senate confirmed Eric Garcetti, the former mayor of Los Angeles, to be the U.S. ambassador to India.
  • L.A.U.S.D. strike: A three-day walkout of as many as 65,000 workers that would shut down Los Angeles public schools is scheduled to start Tuesday, The Los Angeles Times reports.
  • San Bernardino snow: Robert Rice was used to solving his own problems. Then an intense snowstorm in Southern California threatened to keep him from seeing his wife in her final days.
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
  • Renaming: Fresno County is preparing to sue the state of California over a law that requires a term that is widely considered a slur to be removed from geographic features and place names throughout the state by 2025, The Fresno Bee reports.
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • Reparations: The San Francisco Board of Supervisors voiced unanimous support for many recommendations made to address reparations, including payments of $5 million to every eligible Black adult in the city, The Associated Press reports.
  • Remains found: Six bodies and the remains of 154 people were recovered by authorities this month in Hayward after customers said Oceanview Cremations had stopped responding to their calls.
The New York Times

What we're eating

Classic carrot cake.

A hiker walking into the backcountry of Desolation Wilderness.John Flinn/San Francisco Chronicle via AP

Where we're traveling

Today's tip comes from Carlos Alcalá, who lives in Sacramento. Alcalá recommends a trip near Lake Tahoe:

"I'm excited about taking a day hike on the Lyons Creek Trail into Desolation Wilderness in late July. By then, this year's heavy snow should give way to a carpet of flowers — larkspur, columbine, fireweed, lupine, five-spot and more. The snow may also mean that the creek will be running nicely. On warm days, butterflies gather on the trail to pick up minerals. You can end up at Lake Sylvia, a granite bowl with the Crystal Range looming above. Great turnaround spot for picnic lunch."

Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com. We'll be sharing more in upcoming editions of the newsletter.

What we're reading

Cathleen Schine's new novel follows a 24-year-old and his grandmother as they ride out the pandemic together in Venice, Calif.

And before you go, some good news

In November 2000, Jeff Valdivia, then a young police officer in Escondido, was called to help with an arrest at a known drug house in the city, which is north of San Diego. Inside the house, he found a sickly 6-week-old baby girl.

The house was dirty, and there was no more than six ounces of baby food in the kitchen. Valdivia hadn't ever taken a child into protective custody before, but he feared the baby wouldn't survive if left with her mother.

Twenty-two years later, Valdivia got a call from Shelley Young, who had tracked him down through a records search. Shelley and her husband, Jeff Young, had adopted that baby girl, Natalie, and she had grown up to become healthy and happy — and a new police officer.

Shelley wanted to know if Valdivia would pin Natalie's deputy badge on her at the graduation ceremony.

Valdivia told The San Diego Union-Tribune that it was the first time in his 26-year career that he was able to see the long-term results of his work.

"You make the best decision you can, you hope you wrote a good report and you hope the system is going to work," he said. "From there on, it's out of your hands."

"You hope for the best, but it's something you just accept," he continued. "On this one time where you do get to find out, it's incredible to know that it worked out, and that this time this little girl grew up in a loving home with amazing parents, and you got to be a little part of that."

Thanks for reading. I'll be back tomorrow. — Soumya

Briana Scalia and Isabella Grullón Paz contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.

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