Who’s in and out of the debate and Iowa cattle calls

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Jul 25, 2023 View in browser
 
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By Eli Okun

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BREAKING — “DeSantis lets go of more than 1/3 of campaign staff as reset continues,” by Alex Isenstadt

FILE - North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum speaks as he kicks off his campaign for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, June 7, 2023 in Fargo, N.D. With six weeks until the first 2024 Republican presidential debate, some hopefuls are finding creative ways to boost their donor numbers and ensure they make it on stage. Burgum is offering $20 Mastercard or Visa gift cards in return for campaign donations of as little as $1. (AP   Photo/Jack Dura, File)

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum announced that he has qualified for the first debate. | Jack Dura, File/AP Photo

UP FOR DEBATE — The debate stage at the first GOP primary showdown in Milwaukee next month just got a little more crowded: North Dakota Gov. DOUG BURGUM announced that he has qualified, Zach Montellaro and Steve Shepard report. Burgum more or less crawled across the polling threshold: What put him over the top was a 1% showing in a new Morning Consult national survey. But now he’ll have an opportunity to make his case on a prominent platform.

Our POLITICO colleagues have a handy new interactive tracker to see who’s making the debate stage, including timelines, polling and fundraising criteria. You can see, for instance, that MIKE PENCE and ASA HUTCHINSON have only the requisite small-dollar donations to go (though Hutchinson might struggle to get enough), while WILL HURD and Miami Mayor FRANCIS SUAREZ are lagging far behind.

Some other big questions remain about the first debate, which will be hosted by Fox News and Fox Business. Will DONALD TRUMP show up? Will CHRIS CHRISTIE’s Trump opposition run afoul of the RNC’s insistence that participants pledge to support the nominee? Will the number of candidates grow so large that the party has to add an undercard debate? Zach and Steve are out with some interesting predictions for the debate

On the fundraising front, Suarez is taking a page out of Burgum’s book: offering a $20 gift card (framed as “Bidenomics relief”) for a $1 donation, and essentially throwing money away just to qualify for the debate.

The debates aren’t the only opportunities for nearly the full primary lineup to make an impression in front of an influential crowd.

Iowa Gov. KIM REYNOLDS’ invitations to every Republican presidential candidate to join her for individual “Fair Side Chats” at the Iowa State Fair next month were accepted by every contender but two, Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser scooped today.

You can probably guess the holdouts: Trump, whose recent criticisms of Reynolds have stoked controversy in the state, isn’t on the lineup. And neither is Christie, who’s focusing more on New Hampshire.

Everyone else — from LARRY ELDER on Aug. 10 all the way through PERRY JOHNSON and Hurd on Aug. 18 — said yes.

Says Trump spokesperson STEVEN CHEUNG: “President Trump looks forward to interacting with tens of thousands of Iowans at the fair in an open and unfettered setting.”

And almost every major contender, including Trump, will show up Friday for the state party’s 2023 Lincoln Dinner in Des Moines. Joining them will be outgoing New Hampshire Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU, who could be an influential endorser after he passed on the opportunity to run himself, Steinhauser reports. Sununu says he “absolutely will” try to help narrow the field, with the Lincoln Dinner an early opportunity to meet the candidates and see them in action. “I’m never shy about what I think should happen or where I think the party should go.”

WHAT BROWN CAN DO FOR THE ECONOMY — UPS and the Teamsters have struck a tentative deal in contract negotiations, likely averting a massive strike that had threatened to impose a new logistical shock on the economy, AP’s Haleluya Hadero reports.

The union said the five-year contract agreement locked in better benefits, wages (which had been a sticking point) and air conditioning for its 340,000 members, while UPS called it a “win-win-win” that would maintain important business flexibility. It still needs to be ratified by union members in voting that will take place next month.

Another economic boost: Consumer confidence jumped to its highest level since July 2021 in the Conference Board’s latest gauge, AP’s Paul Wiseman reports. It was notably higher than economists had predicted, in the latest indication of economic resilience ahead of tomorrow’s interest rate decision at the Fed.

Good Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.

 

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2024 WATCH

FOR YOUR RADAR — Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS was involved in a minor car crash this morning in Chattanooga, Tenn., WTVC-TV’s Joshua Lillard reports. But his staff told reporters that he and his team were uninjured in the accident.

KNOWING ETHAN EILON — The man being elevated to deputy campaign manager of DeSantis’ campaign co-founded one of the groups that astroturfed the FCC to fight against net neutrality, The Daily Dot’s Mikael Thalen scooped. Eilon “is alleged to have numerous ties to the myriad efforts that saw the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) flooded with millions of fraudulent comments.”

ON THE TRAIL — VIVEK RAMASWAMY will headline a “Faith, Family & Freedom Dinner” hosted by the Republican Party in Dorchester County, S.C., next month, AP’s Meg Kinnard reports from Columbia. That’ll be his first stop back in South Carolina since May.

QUOTE OF THE DAY — “Vivek was a pleasant surprise,” Iowa conservative activist LYNN PROUDFOOT tells NBC’s Allan Smith. “He’s young, he’s ethnic, he’s a Bible-believing Christian. Just everything that I think would appeal to a cross section of our people, others. He’s a sharp guy. And I definitely want to find out more about him and follow him more closely.” Ramaswamy, of course, is actually not a Christian but a Hindu. Still, Smith notes the paradox of his support: “Though much of Ramaswamy’s messaging is centered on criticizing left-wing positions on social issues and condemning identity politics, his identity was appealing to voters in Iowa and New Hampshire who expressed a desire for a nonwhite Republican millennial to ascend.”

NEITHER FISH NOR FOWL — “After breaking with Donald Trump, Mike Pence is selling kindness. Is anyone buying?” by USA Today’s Maureen Groppe in North Conway, N.H.: “[T]hose turning out to meet him frequently commented on his character. They called him a man of morality. A man of his word. A good dude. A Christian. A gentleman. They praised his calm demeanor and his dignity. But there were also questions about whether that’s enough. … It’s not sufficient for Trump critics … It doesn’t sway Trump supporters.”

 

ATTENTION PLAYBOOKERS! You need to keep up with the latest political news and nuggets, so here’s a juicy tip: You need to add California Playbook to your daily reading. We have a new team at the helm who are eager to take you inside the political arena in California, from Sacramento and Los Angeles to Silicon Valley and throughout the Golden State! Get the latest exclusive news and buzzy scoops from the fourth largest economy in the world sent straight to your inbox. SUBSCRIBE TODAY.

 
 

CONGRESS

THE SPENDING FIGHT — The House Freedom Caucus held a Hill presser today calling on Congress to slash spending further in the coming appropriations process — and warning that they’re not scared of a fight. But different members’ comments laid bare some of the intra-group disagreements, as Sarah Ferris notes: Rep. BOB GOOD (R-Va.) said he wasn’t afraid of a government shutdown, while Rep. ANDY BIGGS (R-Ariz.) said he didn’t think it would happen. Notably, several members said they didn’t want to vote for any of the 12 spending bills until they’d seen all 12, which could threaten leadership’s efforts to pass two of them this week.

IMPEACHMENT WATCH — Good also said that Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY’s striking comments last night about impeaching Biden constituted a “paradigm shift.”

THE MALLEY MYSTERY — “Lawmakers to grill State Department officials over Biden’s Iran envoy probe,” by Joe Gould and Nahal Toosi: “The State Department will brief the House Foreign Affairs Committee in the wake of the Biden administration’s decision to bench Iran envoy ROB MALLEY after the panel’s top lawmaker threatened to subpoena administration officials. Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL, the committee chair, secured an agreement from the State Department for the sit-down some time this week.”

HEATING UP — Rep. GREG CASAR (D-Texas) is leading a daylong “thirst strike” on the Capitol steps today, the Texas Observer’s Josephine Lee reports. The protest aims to push the Biden administration “to rapidly implement a federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) heat protection standard.”

ANIMAL BEHAVIOR — “The tiny lizard at the center of a big Endangered Species Act fight,” by WaPo’s Maxine Joselow

 

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MORE POLITICS

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE — Republican former state Rep. JOHN QUIÑONES is jumping into the congressional race to take on incumbent Rep. DARREN SOTO (D-Fla.), the Orlando Sentinel’s Steven Lemongello reports. Soto’s seat is Democratic-leaning but could be competitive. Quiñones, who criticized the Biden administration in announcing his campaign, has run for Congress once before, but he won’t have the GOP primary to himself.

AD WARS — The NRSC is launching new spots against its top three Senate targets — Democrats SHERROD BROWN (Ohio), JOE MANCHIN (W.Va.) and JON TESTER (Mont.) — over the pistol brace rule, The Daily Caller’s Henry Rodgers scooped. Along with the rest of Senate Dems, they voted against a drive to overturn a Biden administration rule essentially barring pistol braces, which have been used in mass shootings. The NRSC ads say the senators failed to defend veterans’ Second Amendment rights.

STRANGE BEDFELLOWS — “Democrats champion free markets as Republicans target Wall Street,” by Jasper Goodman: “The GOP’s war on corporate America’s environmental and social agenda is creating an unexpected set of Wall Street allies: Democrats defending free-market capitalism. Leading progressives and longtime finance industry critics … are embracing the role.”

HOT ON THE LEFT — The Working Families Party today endorsed RAQUEL TERÁN in the Democratic primary to replace Arizona Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO, Brittany Gibson scooped. It’s the progressive party’s latest effort to expand its ranks of supporters in Congress, calling this seat a bellwether for the cycle.

INDEPENDENT SINEMA — As Democratic leaders stay neutral in the Arizona race for now, waiting to see if Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.) will run for reelection, most top donors are following suit, The Daily Beast’s Sam Brodey reports. Though they like Gallego, they don’t want to alienate Sinema for now. But “some donors and Arizona Democrats are growing impatient with the wait-and-see strategy from Washington,” worrying about a lack of investment in the state and a missed opportunity to define Sinema.

MEDIAWATCH

ALL THAT GLITTERS — “How right-wing news powers the ‘gold IRA’ industry,” by WaPo’s Jeremy Merrill and Hanna Kozlowska: “While the legitimacy of the gold retirement investment industry is the subject of numerous lawsuits — including allegations of fraud by federal and state regulators against Lear and other companies — its advertising has become a mainstay of right-wing media. The industry spends millions of dollars a year to reach viewers of Fox, Newsmax and other conservative outlets … [P]itches to invest in gold coins are a daily presence in media that caters to a right-wing audience and often echo conservative talking points about looming economic and societal collapse.”

 

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THE WHITE HOUSE

NOTABLE PICK — The White House announced that Biden will nominate HARRY COKER as the next national cyber director, as John Sakellariadis scooped.

POWERFUL MOMENT — A sometimes emotional Biden signed the proclamation today declaring a national monument to EMMETT TILL and MAMIE TILL-MOBLEY. “Only with truth comes healing, justice, repair and another step forward towards a more perfect union,” Biden said, decrying Till’s murder and emphasizing the importance of confronting uncomfortable history. “Silence is complicity.”

HUNTER GATHERING — “How Hunter Biden played hand in bringing business to University of Delaware’s STAR Campus,” by Karl Baker in the Delaware News Journal, the second in a three-part series this week based on HUNTER BIDEN’s emails: “During JACK MARKELL’s tenure as Delaware governor a decade ago, Hunter Biden had early or inside knowledge of several companies involved in big Delaware economic development efforts. There was an electric vehicle maker. There was a green fuel venture. There was a startup stock exchange. And, there was an offshore wind energy company. Likely the most controversial of all was Bloom Energy.”

IN THE DOGHOUSE — Biden’s German shepherd COMMANDER, who replaced MAJOR in the White House after he got too aggressive, has had his own history of behavior so bad that he sent a Secret Service member to the hospital last November, the N.Y. Post’s Steven Nelson scooped. Commander bit seven people in four months, according to Secret Service records that Judicial Watch obtained. And there could be more victims: The records don’t cover an additional 15 months of his time at the White House. “What a joke … if it wasn’t their dog he would already have been put down — freaking clown needs a muzzle,” one Secret Service member wrote.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

ANNALS OF DIPLOMACY — “Inside the Desperate Diplomatic Efforts to Salvage U.S.-South Africa Ties,” by Foreign Policy’s Robbie Gramer: “Top U.S. and South African officials and lawmakers have engaged in a flurry of behind-the-scenes diplomacy to try to salvage ties that have been roiled by South Africa’s support of Russia in the wake of the war in Ukraine.”

PLAYBOOKERS

TRANSITIONS — Anwesha Majumder is joining the National Partnership for Women & Families as the organization’s first economist. She previously worked for the state of Maryland and Time’s Up. … Jaime Toplin is now a financial services analyst at Morning Consult. She previously was a senior research analyst at Insider Intelligence.

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What to do about your traction slide when you don’t have revenue yet

TechCrunch+ Newsletter
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By Walter Thompson

Tuesday, July 25, 2023

Welcome to TechCrunch+ Tuesday

Welcome to TechCrunch+ Tuesday image

Image Credits: Toa55 / Getty Images

A killer traction slide needs as much favorable customer and market data as you can gather, such as recurring revenue, customer acquisition cost and conversion rates.

It’s your first opportunity to show off and build investor confidence simultaneously. But what if you don’t have any wins to boast about yet?

For pre-revenue startups, Haje Jan Kamps says the traction slide should “describe the risk you've designed out of the business,” such as regulatory uncertainty.

“To figure out what investors are most scared about, talk to them and pay attention to the questions they ask,” he writes. “You can then design an experiment around that and report your findings as traction.”

Thanks very much for reading,

Walter Thompson
Editorial Manager, TechCrunch+
@yourprotagonist

Read More

5 key questions climate tech founders should ask impact investors

5 key questions climate tech founders should ask impact investors image

Image Credits: Jake Lomachevsky / Getty Images

Globally, companies that are trying to solve environmental and social problems are worth more than $2.3 trillion, according to a study by Dealroom.co.

The entrepreneurs building in this sector have lofty aspirations, says Agnes Svensson, chief impact officer at Norrsken VC, but enthusiasm can only get you so far.

"To help drive more trackable impact investments, here are five key questions that all founders should consider asking impact investors competing for a space on your cap table."

Read More

TechCrunch Disrupt 2023

Sponsored by TechCrunch

Come to San Francisco from September 19 - 21 to learn something new and network with other founders and investors.

Buy tickets

Can Europe's cannabis market avoid the US' mistakes? Investors chime in

Can Europe's cannabis market avoid the US' mistakes? Investors chime in image

Image Credits: Bryce Durbin / TechCrunch

America’s medical and recreational cannabis market took off after decades of prohibition, but Anna Heim interviewed investors in Europe who are “wary of the mistakes they've seen being made in the U.S.”

Now that German regulators recently “watered down its law reform plans,” she asked the group about how they’re advising portfolio companies, whether their approach to investing has shifted, and if they’re accepting cold pitches:

  • Oliver Lamb, co-founder, Óskare Capital
  • Emily Paxhia, co-founder and managing partner, Poseidon Investment Management
  • Matt Hawkins, founder and managing partner, Entourage Effect Capital

“The hybrid recreational-medical experiment has already been played out in North America, and there were a painful amount of lessons learned that it would be reckless to ignore,” said Lamb.

Read More

Fund of funds could be the perfect vehicle for backing diverse, emerging fund managers

Fund of funds could be the perfect vehicle for backing diverse, emerging fund managers image

Image Credits: anon-tae / Getty Images

A pooled investment fund — better known as a fund of funds (FoF) — gives LPs and investors “a way to enter a market, sometimes to get into early-stage deals,” explains Dominic Madori-Davis.

But is the evolving model fostering a more diverse community of investors (and hopefully, founders)?

To learn more, she interviewed several FoF managers and found that “as with most debates regarding diversity within venture, the argument always boils down to who is willing to take the risk.”

Read More

Pitch Deck Teardown: CleanHub's $7M seed deck

Pitch Deck Teardown: CleanHub's $7M seed deck image

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CleanHub closed a $7 million seed round to scale its marketplace that connects consumer brands with local waste companies that process plastic materials.

The company “is building a marketplace for the circular economy of plastic,” writes Haje Jan Kamps:

  1. Cover slide
  2. Team slide
  3. Vision slide
  4. Problem slide
  5. Value proposition slide 1
  6. Solution slide
  7. Marketplace vision slide
  8. Product slide
  9. Technology overview 1
  10. Technology overview 2
  11. Value proposition slide 2
  12. Market size slide

Read More

FedNow instant payments are about to unlock fintech investment opportunities

FedNow instant payments are about to unlock fintech investment opportunities image

Image Credits: John Lund / Getty Images

FedNow, the new initiative by the U.S. Federal Reserve that will enable instant payments 24/7/365 has officially launched.

Last month in TC+, Fika Ventures managing partner TX Zhuo predicted that the rollout will create new avenues for fintech companies of every size, “the effects of which could be realized as early as next year.”

Read More

Read more stories on TechCrunch.com

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California Today: What might a disaster-proof house look like?

A conversation with Christopher Flavelle, a New York Times climate reporter who recently wrote about renewed attention on homes that can withstand extreme weather.
Author Headshot

By Soumya Karlamangla

California Today, Writer

It's Tuesday. Inside a push for disaster-proof homes. Plus, Los Angeles hotel workers expand their strike.

A geodesic dome, which has the strength to resist high winds from hurricanes, insulates against extreme temperatures and limits entry points for wildfire ember.Bryan Tarnowski for The New York Times

Record-breaking snowfall. Dangerously high temperatures. Devastating floods.

And that's just 2023 in California.

When extreme weather hits, it often does serious damage to the houses and apartments where we live, prolonging its impact. Weather-related disasters in 2022 forced 1.2 million people in the U.S. from their homes for at least a month, and roughly half of them have yet to return, according to census data.

Could there be another way?

My colleague Christopher Flavelle recently wrote about a growing movement to build disaster-proof homes. Resilient home designs are gaining new attention as weather grows more extreme in an era of climate change, he explains.

These designs include geodesic domes, which are good at withstanding high winds, insulating against extreme temperatures and limiting entry points for wildfire embers. Other ways of making houses more resilient include framing them with concrete or steel rather than wood, and securing roofs so they won't fly off during hurricanes.

These technologies already exist, but they've been slow to make their way into mainstream home building because of the cost, Christopher explains. But in places with high or even moderate disaster risk, the future savings on repairs or rebuilding are likely to be greater than the extra money spent to build in resilience features, Christopher told me.

"It's possible to achieve a really significant degree of protection against disasters," he said. "The toll doesn't need to be nearly as high as it is."

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Most home buyers aren't aware of how much these features may save them in the long run, or they are more worried about the initial price than they are about the cost of eventual repairs. So builders have shied away from adding features that buyers may not be willing to pay extra for.

But that picture could be shifting.

With insurers raising their rates or refusing to offer new coverage in California, homeowners may come to view resilient homes as a way to make their insurance more affordable, which could increase demand for the structures — and give homebuilders a way to market them, Christopher said. It's also possible that building codes will get tougher over time and start to require at least some of these resilience technologies.

Jon duSaint, a retired software engineer, recently bought property near Bishop, in the arid Owens Valley near California's border with Nevada. He's planning to build a dome to live in.

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The structure will be roughly 30 feet in diameter and clad with fire-resistant aluminum shingles that reflect heat. The house will be easier to insulate than a typical house because a dome needs less exterior surface area than a rectangular building to enclose the same amount of floor space. And it can withstand high winds and heavy snowpack.

"The dome shell itself is basically impervious," duSaint told The New York Times.

Enjoy all of The New York Times in one subscription — the original reporting and analysis, plus puzzles from Games, recipes from Cooking, product reviews from Wirecutter and sports journalism from The Athletic. Experience it all with a New York Times All Access subscription.

Gov. Gavin Newsom and other state leaders are weighing a set of political calculations as budget proposals advance in the Legislature.Adam Beam/Associated Press

The rest of the news

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SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • U.C. Berkeley library: After students staged an 85-day sit-in to oppose the closing of the anthropology library at the University of California, Berkeley, the university announced that the building would remain open, The San Francisco Chronicle reports.
Pinecrest Lake in the Stanislaus National Forest.Jason Henry for The New York Times

Where we're traveling

Today's tip comes from Lien Dinh, who recommends Pinecrest Lake in the Stanislaus National Forest, about a three-hour drive east of Sacramento:

"Pinecrest Lake is a hidden gem. Spending the day at the lake in the summer has easily become one of my favorite things to do with our young boys. You can camp, hike, fish and swim at the lake, or explore some of the swimming holes nearby. In the winter, skiing at Dodge Ridge is more affordable and convenient than driving to Lake Tahoe from the Bay Area. We love it so much we bought a cabin nearby."

Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com. We'll be sharing more in upcoming editions of the newsletter.

Tell us

What do you love about summer in California? Barbecues, pool days, road trips? How do you celebrate the season?

Email us at CAtoday@nytimes.com with your suggestions.

Kelley Carter and Moreno McCalpin were married July 14 at the Hyatt Regency Resort and Spa in Huntington Beach.Jennelle Fong for The New York Times

And before you go, some good news

This article from the Style section of The Times speaks for itself:

For years, Kelley Louise Carter entertained a fantasy about how she was going to meet the love of her life. "We would be in Whole Foods, and he would be wearing a Michigan State University alumni sweatshirt," she said. "We would both be grabbing the almond milk at the same time, then we'd look up, lock eyes and that would be it. We'd exchange numbers and fall in love."

Becoming the alternative milk shopper of her dreams wasn't something Moreno Quintell McCalpin could have easily pulled off when they met in 2021, given that he lived in Atlanta and she in Los Angeles. But becoming the man who helped her rethink what love at first sight might look like was, for him, easy.

Read more about Carter and McCalpin's love story and their vintage Hollywood wedding last month.

Thanks for reading. I'll be back tomorrow. — Soumya

Johnna Margalotti and Bernard Mokam contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.

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