Playbook PM: No one knows how this ends

Presented by Facebook: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington
Dec 23, 2020 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Presented by Facebook

SO HOW DOES THIS END? That's a damn good question.

NO ONE KNOWS. Some say President DONALD TRUMP is in burn-it-down mode and is more than willing to veto the Covid relief/funding package, ending his presidency in a lengthy shutdown, with bluster and crisis. Others say he's not explicitly threatening a veto, and everyone should calm down.

WHO CARES WHAT THESE PEOPLE SAY, at this point. We're not convinced anyone has any idea what the president is doing or what goal he's driving toward.

HE'S IN THE MIDST of blowing up a package his White House said he'd sign over provisions the administration proposed (the foreign funding matches the president's request, as CNN's KEVIN LIPTAK points out, via PHIL MATTINGLY ) and designed (the $600 checks were A-OK with them until Tuesday). Maybe he comes out today en route to Florida and says he was just kidding -- but maybe not, and he's not running a corner store, he's running the world's most important country in the middle of a pandemic, so we can't work with maybes.

SO, HERE'S WHAT WE KNOW: The government is funded through Monday at 11:59 p.m. The current legislation to extend that funding and renew Covid relief is the bipartisan bill that passed Congress early Tuesday morning -- the $900 billion package negotiated by the Four Corners and Washington's Most Eager and now Scorned Man, Treasury Secretary STEVEN MNUCHIN. That bill is in the enrollment process, and will reach the White House by Thursday or Friday.

WE'RE IN A CRISIS -- a health crisis, and governing crisis -- obviously, and a ton of important emergency provisions are going to either expire or need refreshing in the coming days. But the immediate concern is that the government shuts down Monday night -- imagine a shutdown during a pandemic. Speaker NANCY PELOSI'S Democratic Caucus is going to try to get unanimous consent to bring the $2,000-check bill Thursday.

IN THE HOUSE, you can't bring something up by unanimous consent unless it's cleared by the minority leadership. The $2,000 checks won't get cleared by the GOP leadership, per several sources familiar with the planning. Republican lawmakers are already worked up about the prospect of boosting the direct payment amount, according to several phone calls we got this morning. So the brief union of TRUMP and PELOSI on the $2,000 check thing looks like it's not going to fly -- it will be ruled out of order by whoever is presiding over the floor, per sources we spoke to this morning. (Caveat: It could change, but seems unlikely to.) They may try to force this vote several times over the next two weeks.

DEMOCRATS could also try for a stopgap measure Thursday on the floor to keep the government open past Monday, but again, they'd need GOP buy-in on that.

IF TRUMP DOESN'T GIVE ANY INDICATION THAT HE PLANS to sign the $900 billion bipartisan bill between now and … let's call it Friday … the House and Senate are going to have to make plans to avert a government shutdown. The House is set to come back on Monday. They will also be back to override TRUMP'S NDAA veto, if he gets around to that today. (It's the last day he can veto it.)

THERE'S A DARK SENSE that's setting in among lawmakers, aides and even some of those TRUMP WORLD "insiders" that this entire tantrum is because Republicans are abandoning him on the Electoral College vote and acknowledging that his presidency is over. This isn't a policy fight, they say. This is a reaction to being abandoned.

IT'S NOT CLEAR who has the president's ear at this point -- if anyone does at all. He's leaving for Florida this afternoon in the 4 p.m. hour.

 

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THE ART OF THE DEAL -- "U.S. buys another 100M doses of Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine," by Sarah Owermohle: "The $1.95 billion agreement doubles the overall U.S. order for the vaccine to 200 million doses. Pfizer and BioNTech said they can supply 70 million doses by June 30, 2021, with the remaining 30 million doses delivered by the end of July. … [The Pfizer and Moderna] orders are enough to treat 200 million people. It is unclear how Pfizer and BioNTech will ramp up manufacturing to account for 100 million additional doses."

Good Wednesday afternoon.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Playbook PM will be off the rest of this week and next week. Playbook will continue to be in your inbox each and every morning.

WAITING FOR RELIEF -- "Weekly jobless claims rise less than expected, but hold above 800,000," by CNBC's Thomas Franck: "Jobless claims rose less than expected last week as employers weighed a wintertime spike in Covid-19 cases against expected relief from a pending $900 billion stimulus package, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

"The number of first-time unemployment-benefits filers decelerated to 803,000 in the week ended Dec. 19. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected initial claims to rise to 888,000. Initial claims for the previous week were revised higher by 7,000 to 892,000, the highest print since early September."

-- WSJ: "U.S. Household Spending Drops for First Time in Seven Months," by Josh Mitchell: "Personal spending—a measure of how much consumers spent on goods and services—fell 0.4% last month, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Household income—how much Americans earned from wages, investments and government aid programs—fell 1.1%.

"Consumer spending, the biggest driver of economic growth in the U.S., has weakened as a rise in coronavirus infections this winter prompted states and cities to order businesses to close or scale back operations. Consumers cut back sharply on purchases of goods. The drop in income in part reflects the fading effects of federal aid programs that Congress and states put in place earlier this year."

SIREN -- "See Where U.S. Intensive Care Units Are Filling Up," by NYT's Lauren Leatherby and John Keefe: "The number of hospitals with full or nearly full I.C.U.s has doubled nationwide since the beginning of October, according to a New York Times analysis of data reported by hospitals and released by the Department of Health and Human Services.

"Currently, more than two in five U.S. hospitals with intensive care units have reached occupancy levels of 85 percent or higher. … Hospitals in the Upper Midwest were hit hardest in November, but hospitals in California, the Southwest and the Southeast are among the most full now."

HEADS UP -- "Pistol-packing freshmen prompt Congress gun review," by Axios' Kadia Goba: "Several incoming House freshmen have inquired about carrying guns into the Capitol, leading a board overseeing congressional security to rethink a regulation banning members from packing heat under the dome …

"The matter will be reviewed by the Capitol Police Board, which consists of the sergeant at arms of the House, the sergeant at arms and doorkeeper of the Senate and the Architect of the Capitol, said the House aide. The chief of the Capitol Police also serves on the board."

REALITY BITES -- "Trump White House staffers receive conflicting messages about their departure," by Quint Forgey and Daniel Lippman: "In an email Wednesday morning from the White House Management Office, EOP staffers were instructed to 'please disregard' an earlier memo that had been sent Tuesday informing them that they 'will start departing' on the week of Jan. 4. …

"The Tuesday memo also included information pertaining to outgoing employees' payroll, benefits, sick leave, records, ethics debriefing and security clearance. … The initial White House communication sent Tuesday had contradicted the ongoing public effort by President Donald Trump and his top aides to reverse the outcome of the 2020 election."

 

EVERYONE IS TALKING ABOUT TRANSITION PLAYBOOK, SUBSCRIBE TODAY: A new year is quickly approaching. Inauguration Day is right around the corner. President-elect Joe Biden's staffing decisions are sending clear-cut signals about his priorities. What do these signals foretell? Transition Playbook is the definitive guide to the new administration and one of the most consequential transfers of power in American history. Written for political insiders, this scoop-filled newsletter breaks big news daily and analyzes the appointments, people and emerging power centers of the new administration. Track the transition and the first 100 days of the incoming Biden administration. Subscribe today.

 
 

FUNNY HOW THIS KEEPS HAPPENING -- "Despite Trump's intense hunt for voter fraud, officials in key states have so far identified just a small number of possible cases," by WaPo's Rosalind Helderman, Jon Swaine and Michelle Ye Hee Lee: "[L]aw enforcement agencies in six key swing states targeted by the president have found just a modest number of complaints that have merited investigation, according to cases tracked by state officials.

"So far, only a handful of cases have resulted in actual criminal charges alleging wrongdoing — some of them against Republican voters aiming to help Trump … Instead, the alleged voter fraud cases, mostly spotted by astute local election officials, were identified as a result of the kinds of safeguards in place in states and counties across the nation specifically designed to catch problems."

THE REAL-WORLD IMPACT … "The Toll Of Conspiracy Theories: A Voting Security Expert Lives In Hiding," by NPR's Bente Birkeland and Miles Parks: "[Eric] Coomer oversees product strategy and security for Dominion Voting Systems, the Denver-based company that has suddenly found itself at the center of many of President Trump's false claims about November's election, spread by allies and pro-Trump media. Some of Trump's supporters have focused on Coomer as the supposed evil mastermind.

"'I actually am in fear for my safety,' Coomer said recently, speaking by video call from an undisclosed location to Colorado Public Radio. 'I'm in fear for my family's safety. These are real, tangible things coming out of these baseless accusations.'"

-- DETROIT NEWS: "Election threat leads to federal charges for woman," by Robert Snell: "Federal prosecutors Wednesday charged a New Hampshire woman with texting threats to the chair of the Wayne County Board of Canvassers following the presidential election and sending photos of a bloody mutilated female body.

"Katelyn Jones, 23, formerly of Olivet, was charged with threatening violence through interstate commerce following an FBI investigation that probed lingering fallout from President Donald Trump's defeat and baseless allegations about voting irregularities. The criminal complaint and an FBI affidavit filed in federal court describe threats made against Monica Palmer, chairwoman of the Wayne County Board of Canvassers, after she voted against certifying the election results." Detroit News

THE BIDEN CABINET -- "Pressure for diversity weighs on Biden's Labor secretary decision," by Megan Cassella and Tyler Pager: "President-elect Joe Biden is considering nominating Boston Mayor Marty Walsh … Biden has a long personal relationship with Walsh, who spent decades as a union member and leader, most recently as head of Boston's Building and Construction Trades Council. Walsh has won support from a number of prominent union leaders — most notably AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka …

"But Walsh is a white man. And although Biden has already nominated the most diverse Cabinet in history, some groups are pushing for more representation among the five Cabinet posts that remain unfilled. … AAPI lawmakers and groups are advocating for Julie Su, California's labor secretary, to get the nod. The Congressional Black Caucus PAC, meanwhile, is pushing for Patrick Gaspard."

KNOWING KERRI KUPEC -- "Meet Attorney General Barr's 'right hand': Kerri Kupec on her journey to the Justice Department," by Fox News' Brooke Singman

DON'T COUNT ON IT! -- "Can House Intel move beyond the Trump wars?" by Martin Matishak: "The Donald Trump show will end its four-year Washington run next month, but the Adam Schiff and Devin Nunes production is due to live on. … Schiff, at least, expressed optimism about a return to above-the-fray bipartisan spirit during the upcoming Biden administration, telling POLITICO that 'I think the overall climate will be more conducive to a sense of comity.'

"But on the GOP side, some current and former lawmakers think both parties could use a new standard-bearer on the panel to restore its one-time reputation as a sanctuary from Congress' partisan warfare. … Neither Schiff or Nunes is expected to go anywhere, however, in a panel that will be more evenly divided next year."

 

A NEW YEAR, A NEW HUDDLE: Huddle, our daily must-read in congressional offices, will have a new author in 2021! Olivia Beavers will take the reins on Jan. 4, and she has some big plans in store. Don't miss out, subscribe to our Huddle newsletter, the essential guide to all things Capitol Hill. Subscribe today.

 
 

MUCK READ -- "Kelly Loeffler's Letter Helped Set Stage for Husband's $10 Billion Deal," by The Daily Beast's Sam Brodey: "When Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) added her name to a letter to financial regulators in May urging them not to make changes to consumer credit reporting requirements during the pandemic, it seemed like a good case of home-state politics for the first-year senator. …

"But shortly after she signed the letter, its purpose became neatly aligned with her personal financial interests as well. In August, Intercontinental Exchange—the company run by Loeffler's husband, Jeffrey Sprecher—announced a $10 billion acquisition of home loan data giant Ellie Mae, which had stood to be hurt by the proposal for a credit reporting moratorium."

WAPO'S MICHAEL KRANISH: "How Senate candidate Jon Ossoff used family wealth to bolster his international media career"

SPOILER ALERT: YES -- "Georgia Trump Fans Say the Last Election Was a Sham. Will They Vote in This One?" by The New Yorker's Charles Bethea

HOW WE GOT HERE -- "How the U.S. Misread China's Xi: Hoping for a Globalist, It Got an Autocrat," by WSJ's Jeremy Page in Beijing: "In the two years before Xi Jinping became China's leader in 2012, U.S. officials tried to size him up through a series of face-to-face meetings. During talks in China in 2011, Mr. Xi, then vice president, asked about civilian control of the U.S. military, shared his thoughts on uprisings in the Middle East and spoke, unprompted, about his father, a renowned revolutionary. …

"The U.S. officials' conclusion: Although Mr. Xi was far more confident and forthright than Hu Jintao, the stiff and scripted leader he would succeed, he likely shared his commitment to stable ties with Washington and closer integration with the U.S-led global order. Some even hoped Mr. Xi would kick-start stalled economic reforms. It was one of the biggest strategic miscalculations of the post-Cold War era." WSJ

AFTERNOON READ -- "Flint Has Clean Water Now. Why Won't People Drink It?" by Derek Robertson in Flint, Mich., for POLITICO Magazine: "From an outside perspective, it sounds like a happy ending. For people who live in Flint, the story looks very different. After six years of lies, deliberate or not, a revolving door in a disempowered City Hall, and the dysfunction wrought by a high-profile, high-stakes recovery process, they find themselves still unable to trust either their water or the people telling them to drink it. …

"In the nation outside Flint, with the coronavirus vaccine at hand, the eyes of 'normal people' are eagerly turning toward a post-pandemic world. Optimists and institutionalists hope that new leaders in Washington can deliver the return to normalcy they've been promised, and maybe rebuild some of that easily burned-off trust. But there's another possibility at play, not as laden with excitement or relief: that after a certain point, the destruction of that trust is the story."

ENGAGED -- Blake Seitz, speechwriter and legislative assistant for Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), proposed to Natalie Eichner, a medical student at Penn State College of Medicine, on Saturday in the East Gardens on grounds at the University of Virginia -- her alma mater, and the site of a memorable date earlier in their relationship. They had a small celebration with family afterward. Pic

-- Lindsay Walters, SVP for U.S. public affairs at Edelman, and Patrick Clifton, SVP of external affairs at a defense investment management company, got engaged Dec. 13 outside the White House, where they met while working in the Trump administration. Pic

BONUS BIRTHDAY: EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler is 56 (h/t Molly Block)

 

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New Christmas travel restrictions revealed as NI records highest Covid-related deaths and infections in months

The Department of Health (DoH) has updated guidance concerning visiting people in residential and care homes in Northern Ireland.
 
 
     
   
     
  Dec 23, 2020  
     
 
Good afternoon,
 
The Stormont Executive has now issued a raft of new travel restrictions to try to combat Northern Ireland's worrying rise in Covid infections.
 
Among the measures is that anyone travelling into Northern Ireland who plans to stay for at least 24 hours will have to self-isolate on arrival. 
 
There will also be a 'stay at home curfew' from 8pm to 6am each day for the week beginning on Boxing Day, with exceptions only for specifically defined purposes. 
 
Health Minister Robin Swann has made it clear he wants to strengthen the stay-at-home message with legal enforcement if the restrictions are to have an impact on the transmission of the virus.
 
Today's figures show that sadly Northern Ireland has recorded its highest number of daily Covid-19 related deaths and new infections in months.
 
With the announcement by Health Secretary Matt Hancock this afternoon of another worrying new variant of the virus, it is imperative that every single one of us recognises the personal responsibility we have in not only keeping our nearest and dearest safe, but the wider community.
 
Keep safe.
 
Valerie Martin,
Head of Content.
 
Thanks for your support for our journalism this year. If you haven't already, then please consider taking out a digital subscription with us from just £1 a month.
And we are offering 20% off if you get someone a subscription as a gift this Christmas. Just use the code CHRISTGIFT20 - find out more here.  
 
     
  New advice issued on visiting care homes in NI over Christmas  
     
  The Department of Health (DoH) has updated guidance concerning visiting people in residential and care homes in Northern Ireland.  
     
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36% of people whose deaths were linked to Covid-19 also had a form of dementia
 
More than a third of people whose deaths were linked to Covid-19 in Northern Ireland also had a form of dementia, statistics show.
 
     
 
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DUP MP Gregory Campbell claims SF credibility in handling of pandemic is 'in tatters'
 
DUP MP Gregory Campbell has accused Sinn Fein of playing politics with Covid-19 and appealed to them to work with the other Northern Ireland parties to "safeguard lives and livelihoods".
 
     
 
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Joy as NI travellers make it home for Christmas amid confusion over rules across UK
 
There were joyous scenes in Belfast yesterday as travellers who managed to make it back to Northern Ireland in time for Christmas embraced family and friends.
 
     
 
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Simon Hamilton: There is a real fear now that businesses in Northern Ireland will be closed for months
 
There is a scene in the Adam Sandler movie 'Big Daddy' where Julian, the child Sandler's character is trying to adopt, is playing cards with Sandler and a takeaway delivery guy, writes SIMON HAMILTON.
 
     
 
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The Music of Dalriada is shared online
 
A Causeway Coast and Glens Borough Council project is celebrating the shared musical traditions of Rathlin Island, the Glens of Antrim and the Mull of Kintyre with the first of three special online performances.
 
     
 
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When a location which was used for worship becomes infected we are commanded to 'come out' of such and the Lord will receive us
 
A letter from Rev Ivan Foster:
 
     
     
     
   
     
     
     
   
 
 
   
 
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