BIG PICTURE WHERE THINGS STAND — "Republican Election Prospects Rise as Inflation Overshadows Abortion, WSJ Poll Finds," by WSJ's Joshua Jamerson: "The survey, conducted about two weeks before Election Day, suggests that abortion rights are less important in voting decisions than voters indicated in the summer, after the Supreme Court in June ended the federal constitutional right to abortion. Republicans have regained momentum since then and now hold a slight edge over Democrats, 46% to 44%, when voters are asked which party they would support in their congressional district if the election were held today." — "Republicans ride optimistic wave into closing week of campaign, with all eyes on fight for Senate control," by CNN's Jeff Zeleny — "On election eve, the state of the U.S. economy is a blurry one," by AP's Paul Wiseman ON THE AIRWAVES — "Key feature of GOP midterm ads: Half-truths and misleading claims," by WaPo's Azi Paybarah: Some "GOP ads are showing a breathtaking disregard for accuracy and clarity, with Republican candidates and their allies twisting tangential elements into baseless or misleading claims." ABORTION ON THE BALLOT — "Kentucky voters asked whether there's a right to an abortion," by AP's Bruce Schreiner in Louisville, Ky.: "The question reads: 'To protect human life, nothing in this Constitution shall be construed to secure or protect a right to abortion or require the funding of abortion.'" TRUST ISSUES — "GOP push to monitor voting in Texas's Harris County spurs outcry," by WaPo's Molly Hennessy-Fiske and Amy Gardner in Houston: "Local Democratic officials have said the move is an effort to intimidate voters — and asked the Justice Department to send federal observers in response." AND JUST FOR GOOD MEASURE — "The truth about election fraud: It's rare," by WaPo's resident fact checker Glenn Kessler BATTLE FOR THE SENATE WALKER LATEST — "Woman who accused Herschel Walker of pressuring her into having abortion says 'honesty matters,'" by ABC: "The woman, whom ABC News agreed to call Jane Doe, told ABC News in her first on-camera interview that she decided to come forward after another woman made similar claims that Walker had also pressured her into having an abortion. Speaking with Juju Chang, co-anchor of ABC News' 'Nightline,' the woman said that in 1993 she became pregnant amid a yearslong affair with Walker, saying they saw each other 'several times a week, usually in the mornings' and that they were in love. "'[Walker] was very clear that he did not want me to have the child. And he said that because of his wife's family and powerful people around him that I would not be safe and that the child would not be safe,' the woman said. 'I felt threatened and I thought I had no choice,' said the woman, who has come forward on camera for the first time since making her allegations public at a press conference last week with her attorney, GLORIA ALLRED." THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN — "Mehmet Oz's medical research was rejected in 2003, resulting in 2-year ban," by WaPo's Lenny Bernstein and Colby Itkowitz: "In May 2003, MEHMET OZ was the senior author on a study that explored a hot topic at the time: Whether heart bypass surgery conducted with the aid of a heart-lung machine impaired a patient's cognitive function more than surgery conducted without the machine. "Oz's research was scheduled to lead off the scientific session of the 83rd annual American Association for Thoracic Surgery (AATS) conference, according to a program from the event, where physicians in that specialty convene to discuss developments in their field. But Oz was forced to withdraw his work and was banned from presenting research to the organization for the next two years." MASTERS OF HIS FATE — "Libertarian Candidate Drops Out of Arizona Senate Race and Endorses Masters," by NYT's Shane Goldmacher: "MARC VICTOR, the Libertarian candidate, and [Republican BLAKE] MASTERS spoke on Monday for a 20-minute recorded conversation that Mr. Victor is expected to publish, according to a person familiar with the conversation. Mr. Victor had made such a conversation a precondition to quitting, technically offering such an opportunity both to Mr. Masters and to [Democratic Sen. MARK] KELLY." Victor has garnered between 1 and 6% in recent polls. ON THE RECORD — "Republicans Claim They'll Fix Inflation. We Asked 8 GOP Senate Candidates How," by Esquire's Jack Holmes: "The campaigns of Oz, [Sen. MIKE] LEE, Walker, and Masters did not respond, while the others all offered the eerily similar responses that you can find [in the story]. Usually, these solutions came in the form of pointing out horrible things the Biden administration has done. Not mentioned: global supply shocks tied to the pandemic shutdown, monopoly power and corporate concentration*, corporate profits, the war in Ukraine, OPEC, housing (the main driver of inflation through much of 2022), or the Federal Reserve." THE CHUCKWAGON ROLLS ON — "Schumer Can Take the Insults, if It Helps Keep Democrats in Power," by NYT's Jesse McKinley WHAT HAPPENS IN VEGAS — "These Cooks, Waiters and Casino Workers Could Swing the Senate," by NYT's Brett Anderson in Las Vegas BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE RATINGS GO RIGHT — The Cook Political Report released its latest House ratings today. The topline, via Dave Wasserman: "10 more blue state districts move in Republicans' direction, including #CA47 Rep. KATIE PORTER (D) from Lean D to Toss Up." See the full list of changes … Read the CPR writeup HOT ADS Via Steve Shepard — Illinois/New York: The NANCY PELOSI-linked House Majority PAC, fresh off a cash infusion from former New York Mayor MIKE BLOOMBERG, is up with three new ads in blue-leaning suburbs where the party hasn't been advertising yet this morning, all focusing on abortion access. Two are running on Long Island (NY-03 and NY-04), and this ad meant to bolster Democratic Rep. SEAN CASTEN's reelection in Illinois ends: "This isn't a fire drill: [GOP candidate] KEITH PEKAU is a serious threat to women everywhere." — Pennsylvania: United Democracy Project's new ad attacks Democrat SUMMER LEE in the 12th Congressional District for being "really radical." AdImpact notes the AIPAC-linked group is spending just shy of $1 million on the ad after spending $2.3 million opposing Lee in the primary. — Georgia: The MITCH McCONNELL-linked Senate Leadership Fund airs the police bodycam footage of Democratic Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK's now-ex-wife accusing him of domestic violence (police didn't charge Warnock and found no evidence of injury), then pivots to knocking Warnock on his voting record. "Warnock didn't just hurt his own family," a narrator says. "He's hurting yours." — Kansas: Former GOP Govs. BILL GRAVES and MIKE HAYDEN endorsed Democratic Gov. LAURA KELLY in the latest ad from the DGA's Kansas affiliate. — Florida: GOP Gov. RON DeSANTIS is endorsed by Miami-based mixed-martial arts welterweight JORGE MASVIDAL in DeSantis' latest Spanish-language ad .
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