| | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | | |  The conflicting signals are grist for discussion at the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole this week, where everyone's anticipating Chair Jerome Powell's speech Friday. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images | New Commerce Department data out today estimated that U.S. gross domestic product shrank 0.6% in the second quarter — up from its initial estimate of a 0.9% contraction over that period. The revised numbers provide a little extra breathing room for the economy, another sign that fears of recession may be waning. A different measure, gross domestic income, actually showed growth in the second quarter, ticking up 0.3% — a divergence in metrics that has largely puzzled economists. Another data point: New jobless claims dipped slightly to 243,000 last week, per new numbers from the Labor Department. The decrease indicates that the robust jobs market is continuing to balance out the economic slowdown, per WSJ's Austen Hufford. "Still, inflation is near a four-decade high and is punishing consumers and businesses," writes AP's Paul Wiseman. "And the Federal Reserve's aggressive efforts to tame inflation through steep interest rate hikes are raising the risk of an eventual recession." The conflicting signals are grist for discussion at the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole this week, where everyone's anticipating Chair JEROME POWELL's speech on Friday. But even in the conference's moneyed shadow, many Wyoming families are struggling to make ends meet, highlighting the stakes as demand at food banks soars, AP's Christopher Rugaber reports. THE RED RIPPLE — Our ace House campaigns reporter Ally Mutnick writes in: Internal Democratic polling in two Arizona congressional districts is bringing the party even more welcome signs that a once extremely Republican-friendly environment is neutralizing. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Republican Rep. DAVID SCHWEIKERT is tied with Democrat JEVIN HODGE at 47% with 6% undecided in a mid-August poll from Hodge's campaign by Normington Petts. Schweikert, who has been dogged by ethics issues, has a favorability rating that's underwater by 20 points. JOE BIDEN carried this Phoenix-area seat by less than 2 points in 2020. Another mid-August internal Democratic poll from GQR in an open Tucson-area seat found Democrat KIRSTEN ENGEL leading Republican JUAN CISCOMANI by 2 points, 49% to 47%. This district, vacated by retiring Democratic Rep. ANN KIRKPATRICK, backed Biden by less than 1 point in 2020. Ciscomani is a top GOP recruit. Both districts have a similar partisan lean to the one Democrat PAT RYAN won in New York on Tuesday. It's still early in campaign season, and it's worth noting neither polling memo includes Biden's approval ratings. But if Republicans aren't running away with these evenly split swing seats, it's hard to see them flipping a lot of deep-blue districts in a huge red wave. Good Thursday afternoon. COMING TOMORROW: Sen. PATRICK LEAHY (D-Vt.) is our guest on this week's episode of Playbook Deep Dive. Subscribe here
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Learn more about our work ahead. | | | THE WHITE HOUSE PRESS SHOP MOVES — The White House is adding OLIVIA DALTON as principal deputy press secretary, joining from the U.S. Mission to the U.N., and HERBIE ZISKEND as a deputy comms director, joining from the VP's office, WaPo's Tyler Pager reports. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE picked Dalton to fill her old role over internal candidates ANDREW BATES and CHRIS MEAGHER. And KATE BERNER is being promoted to principal deputy comms director. Notably, Berner, Dalton and Ziskend have all worked for ANITA DUNN's SKDK; Pager notes that "Dunn has played a central role in the personnel decisions." WITH THE STROKE OF A PEN — Biden today signed an executive order commencing the implementation of the major CHIPS and Science Act, per CNN's Phil Mattingly. "It's a move that reflects an urgency -- and understanding of the substantial task ahead -- for top administration officials as they continue to grapple with the acute risk posed by the concentration of the critical semiconductor industry." ALL POLITICS BY THE NUMBERS — Several states saw a surge in women registering to vote after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, with women on average making up 55% of new registrations post-Dobbs compared to under 50% beforehand across 10 states analyzed by NYT's Francesca Paris and Nate Cohn . Kansas and Pennsylvania, in particular, saw massive spikes. "The increase offers rare concrete evidence that the Supreme Court's decision has galvanized female voters, though the data gives little indication of whether the shift will be large enough, broad enough or persistent enough to affect the outcome of the midterm elections in November. The increase in registration has already begun to fade in most states." MILESTONE — It's not a significant part of his campaign, but Pennsylvania GOP nominee MEHMET OZ would be the first Muslim senator ever if elected. From Harrisburg, AP's Marc Levy explores what that would mean: Oz says his victory would show that "if you work hard in America, no matter what your heritage we treasure you." But his background doesn't seem to be a motivating factor for many voters, as most American Muslims lean Democratic, even if they appreciate the importance of his nomination. POLLS OF THE DAY — Two new Pennsylvania surveys paint two different pictures: Franklin & Marshall College finds Lt. Gov. JOHN FETTERMAN trouncing Oz 43% to 30% and Democratic AG JOSH SHAPIRO beating GOP state Sen. DOUG MASTRIANO 44% to 33% in the gubernatorial race. But Emerson's poll has Fetterman up just 4 points, 48% to 44%, and Shapiro up 3, 47% to 44%. NOT THE POLL OF THE DAY — A Connecticut high school student pranked Mastriano by tweeting a fake poll that showed him ahead of Shapiro — and Mastriano and JENNA ELLIS left their tweets up about the survey for days even after the hoax became clear, the Philly Inquirer's Chris Brennan reports. The student said he did it to "test a theory about a 'double standard' for polling and political parties. His hypothesis: Republicans attack the credibility of established polling firms that release surveys with results they don't like but take seriously and push polls even if they 'don't seem legitimate.'" AD WARS — Washington state GOP Senate nominee TIFFANY SMILEY is up with a striking new ad today pushing back on Democratic Sen. PATTY MURRAY's attacks and staking out relatively moderate ground: "Patty Murray has spent millions to paint me as an extremist. I'm pro-life, but I oppose a federal abortion ban. She shows you this picture of me and [DONALD] TRUMP, but doesn't show you this one": a photo of Smiley smiling with Murray. POLITICAL VIOLENCE WATCH — For the second night in a row, Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE's (R-Ga.) home was "swatted," per the Rome News-Tribune's John Druckenmiller. "This latest case came from an Internet chat suicide crisis line," per local authorities, who are now working with Capitol Police to investigate. DEMOCRACY DIGEST — Minnesota GOP secretary of state nominee KIM CROCKETT said last year that changing voting rules after the 2020 election was "our 9/11," CNN's Andrew Kaczynski and Em Steck report. She falsely called that election the "big rig," one of several times she's cast doubt on the integrity of the vote, among other conspiracy theories. 2024 WATCH — Perhaps the most popular congressional candidate these days is Iowa Republican ZACH NUNN, whose geographic luck has potential 2024 candidates falling over themselves to campaign with him, WSJ's John McCormick reports from Des Moines. Everyone from Trump to MIKE POMPEO to Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) has endorsed Nunn. "The visits elevate Mr. Nunn's profile, but also give prospective candidates a chance to build their own presence in the state without looking as if they already are actively campaigning." Nunn is fighting in a key swing-district race against Democratic Rep. CINDY AXNE. ALL'S FAIR — Sen. AMY KLOBUCHAR (D-Minn.) told WCCO that she's bringing erstwhile rival Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG to the butter carving at her state fair today: "He's from Indiana, he thinks he's seen everything, but he hasn't seen the Minnesota State Fair." — @SecretaryPete: "Hearing a lot of churn about this and I'll say our schedule is spread a little thin this morning but we're on our way and you butter believe I'm ready to be wowed."
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | POLICY CORNER ACCOUNTABILITY READ — The federal government's $386 million Veteran Rapid Retraining Assistance Program, which deployed pandemic relief funds to try to help veterans get equipped for different jobs, has gotten fewer than 400 people new employment, WaPo's Lisa Rein and Yeganeh Torbati report. That's a far cry from the more than 17,000 people Congress intended for the program to help. "The story of VRRAP illustrates Washington's often losing battle to effectively spend the torrent of cash Congress threw at the coronavirus pandemic … Congress bungled both the program's design and its timing, critics said." INSIDE THE IRS — Democrats' massive funding infusion for the IRS will go first to hiring more customer service representatives to answer people's phone calls with tax filing questions, WSJ's Richard Rubin reports . "The move is a mundane, patch-the-holes start for the transformation of the tax agency," which will use the $80 billion from the Inflation Reduction Act for a range of priorities over the next several years (some of them controversial) but is beginning with a simple step to try to make taxpayers' experience smoother.
| | | | A message from Facebook:   | | | JUDICIARY SQUARE THE INVESTIGATIONS — Trump-allied attorney KENNETH CHESEBRO sued today to try to halt a subpoena from the Fulton County, Ga., investigation into the effort to overturn the 2020 election. He claimed attorney-client privilege. The filing AFTERNOON READ — In the NYT Magazine, David Enrich goes deep on Jones Day , the corporate law firm that's turned into a conservative legal and political juggernaut in the past 20 years. In an excerpt from his new book, "Servants of the Damned" ( $26 ), Enrich explores how the firm hired conservative Supreme Court justices' law clerks and represented the Trump campaign, becoming a key player in shifting the federal judiciary to the right. Those efforts came to a head with Jones Day's controversial actions around the 2020 election: "Jones Day and its lawyers were trying to stop votes from being counted, all in an effort to serve the client." GAETZ-GATE — The federal underage sex trafficking investigation into Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) is still ongoing, though it's moving quietly and methodically, The Daily Beast's Jose Pagliery, Roger Sollenberger and Asta Hemenway report in an update on the probe. Any announcement, if it comes, would likely be after the midterms. Gaetz denies any wrongdoing. AMERICA AND THE WORLD ANOTHER TAIWAN TRIP — The congressional arrivals keep coming: Sen. MARSHA BLACKBURN (R-Tenn.) landed in Taiwan today. WAR REPORT — The U.S. strikes in Syria this week killed four members of militias supported by Iran, the U.S. military said today. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition monitor, said at least six were killed. More from the AP
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS TRANSITION — Jon Banner is joining McDonald's as EVP and global chief impact officer. He most recently has been EVP for global comms at PepsiCo and president of the PepsiCo Foundation, and is an ABC News/Disney alum. WEEKEND WEDDING — Steven Varshavsky, a consultant working for government clients at Deloitte, and Danielle Muchnik, an MPH student, got married Sunday at the Larz Anderson House. The couple, both champion ballroom dancers, met when the groom crashed the bride's 16th birthday party. Pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Jamie Hennigan, managing VP of comms at the National Association of Manufacturers, and Kate Hennigan welcomed Jack Mills Hennigan on Wednesday morning. He came in at 8 lbs, 3 oz, and joins big siblings James and Caroline. Pic BONUS BIRTHDAY: Mastercard's Avery Jaffe
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