Playbook PM: Biden finally gets some good news

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Nov 05, 2021 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

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HILL LATEST — After weeks of frustration from many Democrats that President JOE BIDEN wasn't being assertive enough (more on that from Laura Barrón-López, Chris Cadelago and Natasha Korecki), House leaders finally heard the words they've been waiting for.

"I'm asking every House member … to vote 'yes' on both these bills right now," Biden said this morning. "Send the infrastructure bill to my desk, send the Build Back Better bill to the Senate."

The question, notes Heather Caygle: Will it be enough? Here's the state of play:

— Speaker NANCY PELOSI and her leadership team are still trying to whip votes among progressives for the bipartisan infrastructure bill (BIF) and among moderates for the Build Back Better package (BBB).

— At his press conference this morning, Biden said he planned to go "back to my office to make some calls," working the phones to whip support on the Hill.

— But will a vote happen today? "I don't know," House Majority Leader STENY HOYER said before entering Pelosi's office around noon. FWIW, the influential Congressional Black Caucus reportedly wants a vote today.

— The latest: "Senior Dems pretty pessimistic about chances of a vote now," Heather tweeted. "There have been a lot of offers passed to mod group but enough of them are still refusing to budge Leadership has not pulled plug yet as CBC still pushing for vote."

Heather and Sarah Ferris report that Pelosi decided to barrel forward with votes even though there are still kinks to be worked out with the Senate, judging that the risks of waiting are greater than the risks of jumping the gun.

— Much of House moderates' resistance to the BBB hinges on their insistence that the package receive a CBO score before they vote on it — although the bill will likely change in the Senate (making any CBO score out of date) and the bipartisan infrastructure bill could well add more to the deficit in the long run.

— If they stand by that demand, prepare to wait. House Budget Chair JOHN YARMUTH (D-Ky.) said a full CBO score might take until the week before or of Thanksgiving, per CNN's Manu Raju.

REPRIEVE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE — After a week of bad news for Democrats, the White House landed a Friday pick-me-up: a strong October jobs report that offers hope for the nation's economy heading into the holiday season and 2022.

— A turn-the-page moment: "Biden has spent months watching his poll numbers sink as the economy appeared to be losing altitude throughout the fall. That narrative may have changed Friday," writes Megan Cassella.

— The top line: Employers added 531,000 jobs last month, and the unemployment rate ticked down from 4.8% to 4.6%, per AP's Christopher Rugaber.

— The October gains were broadly distributed across various sectors of the economy.

— August's and September's weak reports were revised upward, with the Labor Department estimating an extra 235,000 jobs were added in those months.

— Consumer confidence rose in October.

— Wages were up 4.9% year over year.

— BUT, BUT, BUT: That wage gain is almost entirely canceled out by inflation, and the economy is still millions of jobs short of pre-pandemic levels. NYT's Ben Casselman : "What we're not seeing is a big increase in people coming off the sidelines, either to look for work or to take jobs. Both increased in October, but not the kind of flood that many employers were hoping for."

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Biden took a victory lap at the White House this morning, tying the economic recovery to the American Rescue Plan passed in March and the administration's vaccine rollout. "This did not happen by accident, or just because: We laid the foundation for this recovery," he said.

THE COVID TREATMENT PICTURE — In what could be another major development for efforts to diminish Covid-19's worst effects, Pfizer said today that its pill slashed the risk of hospitalization or death by 89%. Following Merck's recent announcement of a similar pill, Pfizer plans to apply for emergency use authorization from the FDA. More from NPR

— NBC's @BenjySarlin: "If you buy that the biggest drag on Biden right now is COVID and the economy, seems relevant we just got by far the best news on both in months."

Good Friday afternoon. The funeral for former Secretary of State COLIN POWELL began at noon — you can watch live here.

TRIVIA TIME — Which U.S. presidents served as governor of Virginia before winning the nation's highest office? Email us the answer at playbook@politico.com, and we'll announce the winner in Monday's Playbook PM.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON MUST-READ — Our own Ryan Lizza has a Q&A with GLENN YOUNGKIN's top strategists, JEFF ROE and KRISTIN DAVISON, offering a candid look at the surprising strategy behind the stunner in Virginia. Some choice excerpts:

— Davison on the role of critical race theory: "I think what you're seeing on Fox News — when there's someone with a bit of fire coming out of their ears over CRT — we weren't seeing that as much on the ground … That's an easier issue to talk about on TV. That's not what we focused on here."

— Roe on Dems' problems: "The Republicans have been revolutionaries for most of the 2000s. And then they lost mightily because of it. … Democrats now are the revolutionaries. It just took them 10 months what took us 10 years."

(IR)RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES

SALT IN THE WOUND — If Democrats end up including a restoration of the state and local tax deduction in their reconciliation bill, the legislation could wind up actually lowering taxes for the wealthy overall, reports The Daily Beast's Sam Brodey. That's according to an analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. It would be a pretty stunning turnaround for a party that has staked much of its political identity on making the rich pay their fair share.

ANNALS OF INFLUENCE — WaPo's Yeganeh Torbati and Jonathan O'Connell have a detailed examination of how the pharmaceutical industry pumped likely record amounts of money into its campaign to keep prescription drug cost-reduction efforts out of Democrats' reconciliation bill. That encompasses $23 million in lobbying by PhRMA in the first three quarters of the year, plus additional alliances with "groups whose funding sources are hidden." Mailers and attack ads have blanketed the districts of battleground House Democrats.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 

POLITICS ROUNDUP

WHOA — DOJ is examining people with links to Project Veritas in its investigation of how ASHLEY BIDEN's diary was stolen and made public shortly before the 2020 election, NYT's Michael Schmidt, William Rashbaum, Precious Fondren and Adam Goldman report. Federal agents conducted two searches Thursday, including at what seems to be SPENCER MEADS' apartment, and have recently questioned "at least one person who worked for Project Veritas."

CLOUDY FORECAST FOR SUNRISE — Six months ago, the Sunrise Movement's band of youth activists trying to save the world from climate catastrophe were feeling hopeful. Now, their dreams of the U.S. taking radical action to cut emissions having been stamped out, Sunrise is facing a turn toward the pragmatic, writes Ruairí Arrieta-Kenna in a big POLITICO Magazine feature.

In some ways, it's simply the story of the powerful intransigence of Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.). But it's also "a real-time test of the limits of the progressive wave of the past few years," he writes, and of an organization "attacked by pundits for impeding its own cause, wading into diffuse non-climate causes of the activist left, racked by internal conflict and out of options to deal with Manchin."

VOTING RIGHTS WATCH — Eight big corporations that have publicly supported voting rights reform have also given thousands to the Senate Republicans who are blocking it from advancing, NBC's Jane Timm reports, citing a new analysis from Accountable.US. That includes Amazon, Dell, Facebook and Microsoft.

UNDER THE RADAR — Daniel Nichanian has a really interesting roundup of Tuesday election results you might have missed that offer important clues about the political landscape around the country. Among the takeaways: Winding down the war on drugs continued to make progress; Tucson, Ariz., hiked its minimum wage; Boston opted for participatory budgeting; Republicans picked up a Pennsylvania state Supreme Court seat; St. Paul, Minn., adopted rent control; and much more.

2022 WATCH — Post-Virginia, Republicans are planning to make "race and diversity curricula" in public schools a centerpiece of their midterms strategy, report AP's Thomas Beaumont, Aaron Morrison and Will Weissert. Democrats remain divided over how — and whether — to respond to the attacks.

THE WHITE HOUSE

VP FILES — Progressive activists are feeling increasingly frustrated with VP KAMALA HARRIS over the administration's action (or lack thereof) on issues like immigration, voting rights and abortion, reports USA Today's Matt Brown . As high expectations crash into the reality of governing, Harris has come in for particular criticism because she's often set out to be an intermediary between the administration and progressives. "Central to many advocates' critiques is a sense that the administration is open to communication on major issues but won't take more strident public stances for fear of backlash."

FED UP — Both Fed Chair JEROME POWELL and LAEL BRAINARD, the likeliest candidate to replace Powell if Biden opts not to renominate him, met with the president at the White House on Thursday, per Bloomberg.

 

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CONGRESS

FOLLOWING THE MONEY — Controversial multilevel marketing businesses are pinning their donations — and political hopes — largely on Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.), hoping to prevent her from signing onto the PRO Act, Democrats' big labor bill, reports Hailey Fuchs. These companies typically donate to Republicans or not at all, but Sinema is one of just three Senate Democratic holdouts on the PRO Act (and the other two have already expressed some support). Hailey writes that the bill poses "an existential threat" to these companies, since it "would make it more difficult to classify workers as independent contractors."

POLICY CORNER

CLIMATE FILES — The Energy Department today is announcing its biggest ever investment in carbon removal technology, an effort to slash the costs of sucking greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere by the end of the decade, NYT's Brad Plumer reports from Glasgow. "As part of its new effort, the Energy Department plans to direct scientists at its national labs to research different approaches and to fund demonstration projects so that engineers can figure out how to reduce costs."

JUMPING THE GUNS — Myah Ward has a new story about how Biden became a more forceful advocate for gun violence prevention — and the ascendance of "community violence intervention" as a policy concept. The idea is to address the root causes of gun violence with a more holistic and proactive approach. With gun control measures going nowhere in Congress, investing in CVI remains one of the only steps legislators can take. The question now: Will $5 billion slated for CVI in the reconciliation bill make it through the meat grinder of the next few weeks?

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

HAVANA SYNDROME LATEST — The State Department is tapping veteran diplomats JONATHAN MOORE and MARGARET UYEHARA to head its response to reports of the mysterious "Havana Syndrome" and will also roll out "new technology" to try to better understand it, reports McClatchy's Michael Wilner. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN made his first Havana Syndrome speech today to announce the changes, which also include "a new partnership with Johns Hopkins University that will enhance care options for diplomats experiencing symptoms." Wilner reports that the administration thinks it's getting closer to an answer.

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — Lawmakers in both parties are stepping up pressure on the Biden administration to jettison traditional U.S. "strategic ambiguity" around Taiwan and more forcefully defend the island from China. Andrew Desiderio reports that there's even talk of sending Biden a preemptive war authorization for any potential conflict, though that would risk provoking China. The administration seems loath to make any significant changes to its posture.

TRADE WARS — While much of the steel and aluminum industry celebrated the Biden administration's move to wind down tariffs with the EU, small importers are worried that a complicated new quota system could prove onerous, reports WSJ's Josh Zumbrun.

 

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

 
 

VALLEY TALK

FACEBOOK FILES — In the latest installment of the damaging revelations about the social media behemoth, WSJ's Georgia Wells, Deepa Seetharaman and Jeff Horwitz report that "1 in 8 of its users report engaging in compulsive use of social media that impacts their sleep, work, parenting or relationships." That looks a lot like internet addiction, and Facebook's internal research found it was worse on their platform than any other major one. The percentage is a bit lower — 1 in 10 — in the U.S., but we're still talking about potentially more than 360 million people worldwide.

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

FOR YOUR RADAR — Opening statements began today in the trial of the three men accused of killing AHMAUD ARBERY. The judge ruled this morning that the defense cannot disclose Arbery was on probation at the time of his death, and that prosecutors are allowed to show TRAVIS MCMICHAEL had a Confederate flag license plate. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has live updates.

PLAYBOOKERS

IN MEMORIAM — "Delaware's first and only female governor, Ruth Ann Minner, dies at 86," by the Delaware News Journal's Ryan Cormier and Esteban Parra: "She dropped out of high school at 16 to help out on her family farm. At 32, she was widowed and was suddenly left to raise three sons on her own while working two jobs and earning her GED. She later remarried and built a family towing business with her second husband, who died of lung cancer in 1991. A decade after his death, she would be sworn in as a history-making 72nd governor of the state."

OUT AND ABOUT — Cory Horton and Clifton Williams hosted a reception to welcome and congratulate newly sworn-in Rep. Shontel Brown (D-Ohio) on Thursday night at Taft Advisors' D.C. office. SPOTTED: HUD Secretary Marcia Fudge, House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), Reps. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio), Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) and Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), Antjuan Seawright, Jennifer Stewart, Marcus Mason, John Mason, Ashley Hayes, Robert Harris, Eriade Williams, Moyer McCoy, Brandon Webb and Tasha Cole.

The Hispanic Lobbyists Association's Día de los Muertos-themed Avanza Awards cocktail reception on the Wharf on Thursday night honored Reps. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) and David Valadao (R-Calif.), Estuardo Rodríguez, Grisella Martinez and Maria S. Gomez. They also took a moment of silence to remember the late Patricia Rojas-Ungár of the Outdoor Industry Association. Also SPOTTED , among others: Reps. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), Norma Torres (D-Calif.) and Teresa Leger Fernandez (D-N.M.).

BONUS BIRTHDAY: Target's Molly Cagle

 

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California Today: The highest vaccination rate in the state

Marin County has become an unlikely champion of Covid-19 shots. But will it last?
Author Headshot

By Soumya Karlamangla

California Today, Writer

It's Friday. Once an anti-vaccine stronghold, Marin County has become an unlikely champion of Covid-19 shots. Also, should social justice be part of California's math curriculum?

Charles Hill, a hospital worker in San Rafael, was the first person to receive a Covid-19 vaccine in Marin County, which currently has the best vaccination rate in California.Alan Dep/Marin Independent Journal, via Associated Press

The pocket of California that has emerged as a leader in Covid-19 vaccinations may come as a surprise.

Seventy-eight percent of people living in Marin County are fully vaccinated against Covid — the highest rate of any county in California (and just about anywhere in the nation).

But Marin County, a wealthy enclave across the Golden Gate Bridge from San Francisco, has historically been a hotbed for anti-vaccine sentiment, a place where many have long shunned routine immunizations.

There are a few possible explanations for the apparent change of heart: The coronavirus pandemic has made the need for vaccinations very real while shifting the politics around getting shots. And anti-vaccine reputation aside, Marin County fits the profile of a highly vaccinated place: rich, college-educated and liberal.

But perhaps more important, Covid-19 vaccinations thus far have mostly been limited to adults, with resistance to vaccines long focused on possible effects on young children — for whom Covid-19 vaccines became available only this week.

"What we think of as anti-vaxxers — and historically in Marin — is very much rooted in childhood vaccinations," Dr. Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, an epidemiologist at the University of California, San Francisco, told me. "I think you're already seeing some people balking at the idea that they need to vaccinate their children, even if they themselves are vaccinated."

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Marin County officials say they hope to administer first doses to 75 percent of 5- to 11-year-olds, the newest group eligible for a coronavirus vaccine, by early December. But many see that as an overly ambitious target, especially in Marin.

Dr. Christopher Longhurst, a pediatrician who worked at Stanford for many years, remembers treating children from nearby Marin County who came in infected with measles and other vaccine-preventable diseases.

Longhurst told me about a 6-week-old in the intensive care unit who was admitted with whooping cough, a disease for which the infant was too young to be vaccinated.

The baby lived in a part of Marin County where, because of low childhood vaccination levels, "herd immunity had evaporated," he said. The infection killed the child.

"Long before Covid, I've been a very big vaccine advocate," he said.

In Marin County in May, an unvaccinated teacher spread the coronavirus to half the students in a classroom. And this week, the county became the first in the Bay Area to lift its indoor mask mandate, a move some criticized given a recent plateau in Covid-19 cases.

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But Marin County has mainly played the part of Covid-cautious county. Even when Gov. Gavin Newsom announced a statewide Covid-19 vaccine requirement for students, the strictest in the nation, there was little pushback.

At a recent protest in Sacramento against the mandate, families from the Bay Area, and specifically Marin County, were largely absent.

"We still have pockets of very vocal vaccine refusers," the county health officer, Dr. Matt Willis, told The San Francisco Chronicle, but "it's clear the community culture has shifted."

For years, resistance to childhood vaccinations was something embraced by left-leaning, hippiesh types. But opposing Covid-19 vaccines is associated with President Donald J. Trump, an unlikely stance in Marin County, where 82 percent of voters cast ballots for President Biden in 2020.

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Still, things often become more complicated when children get involved. Already, Covid-19 vaccination rates for 12- to 17-year-olds in California are lower than for older age groups: 60 percent compared with 71 percent for 18- to 49-year-olds.

The rates may drop even lower for the latest group to become eligible for a shot, given that parents tend to be particularly protective over younger children.

Though Covid-19 has become a leading cause of death among children, some parents may be more hesitant to vaccinate children because their risk of severe illness is far below that of adults.

In a recent Kaiser Family Foundation survey, 27 percent of parents nationwide said they wanted to immediately vaccinate their 5- to 11-year-olds. Thirty percent said they would definitely not get them their shots.

"I am interested in seeing whether the enthusiasm and the wholesale uptake of vaccinations that we've seen in some areas" will translate into vaccinations for children, Bibbins-Domingo told me. "I think people are anticipating we're not going to get the high rates we see in adults."

For more:

A precalculus class at George Washington High School in San Francisco this year.Jim Wilson/The New York Times

If you read one story, make it this

Elizabeth Holmes, the founder of Theranos, entering the federal courthouse in San Jose this week.John G Mabanglo/EPA, via Shutterstock

The rest of the news

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • Pico-Union shooting: The state attorney general's office has opened an independent investigation into a deadly shooting by Los Angeles police officers in July, The Los Angeles Times reports.
  • Vaccine verification: Los Angeles is set to put into place some of the nation's strictest Covid-19 vaccine verification rules, but officials won't immediately cite those who run afoul of the new regulations, The Los Angeles Times reports.
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
  • Teacher shortage: Fresno officials have agreed to provide an additional $200 stipend for substitutes who teach 20 consecutive days, according to ABC News.
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
  • Weather warning: Flooding is expected in low-lying areas around Humboldt Bay this morning.
  • Covid-19 in jails: After a 76-year-old vaccinated inmate died of Covid-19, activists are warning of dangerous conditions in Sacramento jails, The Sacramento Bee reports.
  • A reprieve from drought?: Rain fell across parts of Northern California on Thursday, and more was possible into the weekend, but forecasts were backing off chances of an atmospheric river event next week, The Associated Press reports.
  • PG&E settlement: Pacific Gas and Electric will pay $125 million in costs related to the Kincade fire, which was ignited in 2019 by the utility's equipment in Sonoma County, according to The Associated Press.
Andrew Purcell for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Barrett Washburne.

What we're eating

Creamy butternut squash pasta with sage and walnuts.

A fire-dancing troupe drew a crowd at the Nevada City Summer Nights street festival in 2018.Elias Funez/The Union via Associated Press

Where we're traveling

Today's travel tip comes from Monica Vincent, who recommends Nevada City, which is about 60 miles northeast of Sacramento:

On my first visit we discovered Hirschman's Pond, which let me drop right into being at home with the beauty and nature that surround this little well-preserved Gold Rush town on the western slope of the Sierra Nevada. Surrounded by forests, other Gold Rush towns like Grass Valley, and the Yuba River, Nevada City transports you to another time.

As you arrive at the edge of town, you cross Deer Creek, which flows through the center of town as a reminder that this is a town rooted in the search for gold. The town's historical buildings now house restaurants, shops, museums and the historic Nevada Theater. They have film festivals, music events and fairs. My favorite time to visit is winter. Little Nevada City turns into a postcard picture for Christmas when the businesses and residents trim the town with small white lights — when and if it snows, the beauty is breathtaking. The town is friendly and inviting, low key, yet hip in a small town kind of way. There are sweet BNBs and places to stay, eat and just hang out. The surrounding area is full of hiking trails — or just pack a picnic lunch and head to Hirschman's Pond and unwind!

Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com. We'll be sharing more in upcoming editions of the newsletter.

What we're recommending

Rob Coons

And before you go, some good news

I'll let the first line of this article speak for itself: "Were it not for two goats named Thelma and Louise, Lauren Trout and Chris Angeloro may not have had a love story."

Trout and Angeloro married last month on a yacht sailing under the Golden Gate Bridge. Read more from The Times.

Thanks for reading. Enjoy your weekend. I'll be back Monday. — Soumya

P.S. Here's today's Mini Crossword, and a clue: First sign of the zodiac (5 letters).

Steven Moity, Shivani Gonzalez and Briana Scalia contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.

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